Feb 23 2023

Astros’ thoughts and concerns

Here we are about a week into Spring Training and a couple days before the first Spring Training game, and we already have “concerns” with the Astros. Here are some thoughts about some of those concerns and about some related subjects.

  • Lance Again – Coming into the 2023 season, the first pitcher who was expected to pick up some of the slack of Justin Verlander leaving with his 175 innings, 1.75 ERA, and Cy Young Award was Lance McCullers Jr. Now the question is whether Lance will even give the pittance he gave them last season during the regular season with 8 starts and 47.2 innings. The concern is not just that he was hurt in his very first ST workout, but that he almost immediately said he would not be ready in 5 weeks to start the season. Lance has always pitched well, but the injuries have always been the concern. This could domino the responsibility to a much less experienced pitcher….
  • “Hunt”ing for an answer – Hunter Brown is next in line to pick up the rope from Verlander. He looked really great in his small sample experience in 2023 – 20.1 IP/0.89 ERA in the regular season and 3.2 IP/ 0.00 ERA in the playoffs. But that was, again, a small sample, with teams not being able to get a book on him. Right now, the team should be hoping to get 100 or so innings with a 3.50 to 4.00 ERA out of the young man. That would be very good numbers for the fifth starter if that is who he has to be.
  • Multitasking – One of the strengths of the team in 2023 was the ability to roll out quality arms no matter the situation, especially when they needed multi-innings out of a bullpen arm. One of the finest moments of the last post-season may have been Luis Garcia’s scoreless five-inning appearance in the 18-inning ALDS game against the Mariners. This weakening of the bullpen (as Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown may be firmed up in the rotation), affects the multi-inning appearances in the regular season, but maybe not so much in the postseason. Who has to roll up to fill in those spots during both seasons will have an effect on the Astros’ ability to leverage this portion of the game.
  • The Flaw – The current concern with Yordan Alvarez and his hand injury brings to mind a story from Aesop in my youth about Androcles and the Lion. The lion is a terrible beast brought to his knees by a thorn in his paw and ends up giving all his loyalty to Androcles after he pulls the thorn out for him. If we only had someone who could cure Yordan’s hand problems. It is incredible to picture the giant of a man and see him brought down by his hands. Hopefully, it will be a short-term mild annoyance, but after watching Yao Ming succumb to his feet issues, I worry.
  • The One Thing – This may be a false way of thinking, but it feels like injuries are the one thing that could derail this team or at least end its 6 consecutive playoff runs. Injuries killed the team in 2020, and only the pandemic-inspired expanded playoff field kept their streak intact. They were truthfully as healthy as they had ever been last season. Folks missed a couple weeks here or there, but only the Michael Brantley shoulder injury and Lance McCullers Jr. shoulder injury were significant, and LMJ came back for the run down to and through the playoffs. It is hard to picture such luck again.
  • Shady Acres – Dusty Baker has been well known for giving his players rest during the regular season. It has gotten under our skin at times – “Wow, Tucker goes 3 for 4 with a dinger but still takes a pre-arranged off day against a right-hander.” But the results have been good overall, as the team has looked fresher than their opponents in the playoffs. We have not seen how this would work out in a tight regular season situation, especially if there is a bigger drop-off to the next level when players are rested than has occurred in the past. It is likely to happen. We need to be prepared with our Tums and Zoloft.

Anyways, a few personal concerns here. What about yours?

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59 comments on “Astros’ thoughts and concerns”

  1. I don’t think our guys are going to have bad years. We know pretty much what to expect. But by all means, if we get beat up by injuries, that’s the one thing that could derail our very talented club. To win that battle, new guys would have to step up and do things we’ve not seen from them before. And that would be really fun to watch.

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  2. Historically, LMJ has been good for 20 starts a year. We’d rather have him healthy at the end of the year than at the start, so this setback could be a blessing in disguise. Sir Paul has this to say about it:

    Wish there was a way to get Lance healthful
    Wish there was a way to get Lance whole
    Sleep Astro fanatics do not cry
    And I will sing a nutty rhyme

    Fantasy stat numbers say goodbye
    Draft you low and hope you surprise
    Sleep Astro fanatics do not cry
    And I will sing a nutty rhyme

    Wish there was a way to get Lance healthful
    Wish there was a way to get Lance whole
    Sleep Astro fanatics do not cry
    And I will sing a nutty rhyme

    LMJ, you’ve gotta right forearm strain
    Pray that forearm strain is not a long time
    LMJ, you’ve gotta right forearm strain
    Pray that forearm strain is not a long time

    Rest your arm on my pillow
    You don’t get a spring training invitation
    And in the middle of the rehabilitation
    Don’t you break down

    LMJ, you’ve gotta right forearm strain
    Pray that forearm strain is not a long time
    LMJ, you’ve gotta right forearm strain
    Pray that forearm strain is not a long time

    Oh yeah, all right
    Are you gonna be in the rotation
    May, June or July?

    And in the end
    The recovery you take
    Is equal to the recovery you make

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  4. To be honest, I’d completely forgotten about LMJ when considering the Verlander departure. He wasn’t a factor during the season last year. He’s flirted with being a great pitcher, but has just enough meltdowns to put him into the “if he could just put it together” category. He is also in that “if he could just stay healthy” category. My concern is if we lose someone else from the rotation.

    Baker is going to give the regulars a lot of rest this spring. In a month we’ll be complaining about them not being ready because they didn’t get enough at bats. I do have a fear we could repeat the 2020 season’s slow start. Ultimately, I agree if we are fairly healthy the talent should carry them through.

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    • My favorite was always “Poor Side of Town” which always sounded like “Poorer Side of Town”.

      Great talent who could do those ballads but would also rock it on Secret Agent Man

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    • I like his attitude as well. 20 innings of success has given him some confidence.

      I don’t like that in the last 2 years he has a total of only 226 innings and in those 226 innings he issued 102 walks. 287 K’s in 226 innings means talent. Results are what matters.

      Maybe his focus will be up. It certainly was for 20 innings. Adrenaline can take focus a long way. He will be pitching with a point to prove. If LMJ is back by 1 May he will have 4-5 starts to prove he isn’t the one that should only see starts in long periods of no off days. He wants to be one of the “five”, probably wants to be one of the “four” for the playoffs. Sometimes giving that guy his carrot gets the best out of him. I just wish pitching was that easy. That’s a lot of walks.

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    • Does anyone still rank Lee higher than Diaz?

      As I sip my coffee here I’m thinking about how many innings we’ll need from our starters. Last year we were right around 950. I’m assigning totally random, maybe somewhat conservative
      innings to several guys for 2023, based on what they’ve thrown recently. And obviously, I’m presuming these five are healthy along the way.

      180 Framber
      150 Javier
      175 Garcia
      165 Urquidy
      125 Brown

      That’s 635. So which guys give us 300 plus more innings? That’s likely why Dusty is looking for veteran arm on his roster. But we’ve got other guys too. Which ones?

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  9. I think the Astros will rest Alvarez’s hand and Brantley’s shoulder enough to get them ready for opening day. We will see a lot of Meyers, Diaz, Dirden, Julks, Chas and maybe Leon this spring to give the team a look at what they have, in case one or both of the two regulars aren’t ready.
    As far as the pitching is concerned, I don’t plan on seeing LMJ until the summer months. But, I am not in a panic about the rotation because I think we have five good starters in Valdez, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy and Brown. We need to establish a solid five man rotation in Sugarland to have pitchers ready to come up when needed. I see Whitley, France, Murray, Melendez, Bielak and Tamarez as potential AAA starters.
    If Dubin, Martinez, Gage, Mushinski or Taylor should show potential to make the team as relievers, I could see the Astros perhaps adding Abreu to the ST rotation to see if his command transfers from success in the bullpen to being a sixth starter. That is a big IF!

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    • I also don’t think we’ll see LMJ at any point during the first half of the season. And with our line up and quality pen, playing .500 ball when using a spot or substitute starter should not be a stretch.

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    • I also don’t think we’ll see LMJ at any point during the first half of the season. And with our line up and quality pen, playing .500 ball when using a spot or substitute starter should not be a stretch.

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    • Because we were living in Arkansas from 1982 to 1989 – I missed seeing most of Dickie Thon’s greatness – saw him when we came to visit in the summer a bit and once in a while on national TV.
      It was a shame that his career was shattered that way.

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    • It is interesting that the networks are basically reneging on their contract, but are “selling” the rights back to the team in exchange for not getting sued. Once they stop paying, I don’t think they have anything to sell. But then again I am not a lawyer type person.

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  14. You know it’s Spring Training when JJ Matijevic pinch hits in the 4th inning with 2 outs and the bases loaded for Jose Abreu.
    Abreu being one of the few threats in the lineup..

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  15. Blanco got 3 strikeouts on 9 pitches. If he keeps doing that it’s easier to turn Abreu into a starter.

    My favorite under the radar minor league outfielder hit a two out two run shot. This means little, but it beats fanning.

    Winning beats losing unless you’re the Texans and you lose the first round pick.

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  16. Watched the entire game yesterday. It’s early but there were some loud outs by our lineup. Pitching overall was pretty decent save Bielak’s 1st inning hiccup. We’ll see what happens today.

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  18. Some more positives today for the pitching staff. Chaz with 2 hits and Jake, Tucker, Correa, and Stubbs 1 each. Still had some loud outs. Jayden Murry looked good in his 2 innings. Urquidy looked ok save for the one long ball but I think he was just trying to throw one down the middle. Will Wagner made a couple of good plays despite he botched the potential DP in the last inning. I like the hustle from all the guys.

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  21. Things I think:
    * As long as Chas is healthy the Astros are OK in CF.
    * Just because the Astros haven’t given out longer term extensions, that doesn’t mean they won’t do it for a guy or guys that they want to keep. They raised the money bar for Correa to the highest they ever offered anyone, even though they knew about the plate in his leg.
    * Yainer has worked on his defense during the off season. He will need it starting next year. Korey Lee is not an afterthought to the Astros. Right now, Diaz’s offense is important. Keep him hitting.
    * Yordan has 4 weeks to heal. Let him heal.
    * Astros are spread all over the place this spring with the WBC. Come opening day, they will be the Houston Astros, defending champions.
    * What a sight it would be to see Michael Brantley in LF on opening day.

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  22. Had a long car ride this morning for work and listened to 610AM where they were talking remote from Spring Training, so most of the discussion was baseball….
    – Yeah the Machado signing was brought up since Bregman will be the same age – 30 – when he becomes a free agent. I think this all comes down to length of contract, not size of annual salary. Don’t see them giving a 30 year old a 10 year or so contract.
    -Talked a lot about Whitley – one of the guys said they were glad he is no longer called the Astros #1 prospect – maybe he will do better out from under that.
    – Made a bit more than it deserved about the time clock and how Kyle Tucker felt rushed. I think if this was the last week of ST and he was still saying that, it would have meant something – a little early to take much away from it today
    – They said we would be seeing Altuve and Maldonado in the lineup today.

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  23. Oh and one more thing – they were wondering how the WBC will affect the players. They will be working with the time clock in early ST, then go to WBC where there is no time clock and then back to ST with the time clock.

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  25. Lineup for today’s game

    Altuve 2B
    Pena SS
    Matijevic 1B
    Julks RF
    Maldonado C
    Costes Lf
    Dubon CF
    Kessinger 3B
    Madris DH

    Whitley on the mound…

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    • Regarding Mr. Whitley – this was clearly not the outing our problem child needed. Unlike most of the guys we invited to ST, Forrest had something to prove. He reached for an Ace of Spades and pulled out … a three of clubs.

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  30. On a lark I looked up Bryan Garcia [who apparently we picked up from Detroit when I wasn’t looking]. He has good even-numbered years but atrocious odd-numbered years. [NOTE TO SELF: 2023 is an odd year].

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  31. Derek West (our 8th inning pitcher) is 26 and has been in our system for three years. He has never gotten past Corpus, and he has never had a good year. Lifetime Milb ERA 5.38; lifetime WHIP 1.59. But he does strikeout a lot in the course of getting shelled. What do you do with a guy like that? [More time at CC?]

    Meanwhile, hello Justin Dirden.

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  32. After the Marlins batted in the first inning, everyone in their dugout knew that Whitley’s fastball had zero movement. In the next inning they just sat and waited for it. He actually pitched worse than the numbers show.
    Yainer Diaz looks like he hasn’t swung a bat since last year’s playoffs began.
    What a lineup the Astros fielded today. I can’t believe I watched the whole game.
    Watching baseball is completely different now than last season. If you fast forward 30 seconds on the game, you miss two pitches. I am going to have to relearn using the remote on my replay of the game.
    So far, Jayden Murray and Justin Dirden are my bright spots in ST.
    JJ Mat’s home run doesn’t make it to the warning track in MMP’s CF.

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  33. This pitch clock business will continue to create havoc for awhile. Some guys will adjust better than others. But I’m all for it. And I’m sure most of the players would rather go home earlier too. Unfortunately, there is no time to show a replay between pitches. And will pitchers tire quicker? We’ll see.

    The bases. Ok, they are as big as a pizza box. But at the end of the day, I think we’ll forget about the change pretty quickly.

    I saw little from Whitley yesterday. Maybe his goal for the first time out was to throw strikes, although he did not have much command. Then I think about Blanco throwing nine strikes and getting three strikeouts the other day. He was ready for his opportunity. Forrest just does not seem to have the mindset he’ll need to be an MLB pitcher.

    I hope to see Dirden playing most everyday right now. For a guy that has only played 207 minor league games, he looks like he knows what he’s doing out there.

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  35. Today’s lineup

    Pitcher is the “no longer rocking the baby” Luis Garcia

    Tucker RF
    Meyers LF
    McCormick CF
    Abreu 1B
    Lee C
    Bannon 3B
    Hensley SS
    Whitcomb 2B
    Diaz DH

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  40. Today’s current lineup behind starter Hunter Brown against the BoSox

    Altuve 2B
    Pena SS
    Maldonado C
    Dirden RF
    Julks LF
    Corona CF
    Matijevic 1B
    J.Perez 3B
    Hamilton DH

    I wonder if Maldy has batted 3rd in his life. Had to look up Quincy Hamilton – been in the system a couple years – really tore up A+ last year but came down to earth when promoted to AA Corpus.
    Dirden has looked really good so far

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  41. Our Astros are not having their best day. Fortunately, it does not matter – except to the individual players who are stinking it up. [1]. Hunter Brown’s outing was not good – his WHIP is 4.0 (1 IP, 2 hits, 2 BBs, and 2 runs allowed (one earned)). [2]. a Catcher interference Maldy prolongs an inning and costs a run. [3] An error by nobody’s choice for a 3B (Joe Perez) costs a run. [4]. An error by Dubon costs a run. [5] Austin Hanson – an unheralded minor-leaguer who has was downright horrible in AAA two years ago, didn’t pitch last year, and will probably never be seen again – was predictably terrible., and [6] Justin Dirden finally made an out. Meanwhile, the good news is that Jacob Melton just hit a two-run home run to reduce the Red Sox lead to one run after 6 innings.

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    • Did I mention that our three actual starters who began this game – Altuve, Pena, and Maldy -were a combined – o for 8 today, and each of them is now 0 for spring training? Not to worry, Venezuelan catching prospect Miguel Palma just tied the game for us with a sac fly in the 7th.

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  42. Mr. Bill, you still might have it in you! I’m encouraged that we could have a CC representative after all. It’s too bad AAA is not open yet. Otherwise we could send Hunter down and Maldy with him on a rehab assignment.

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