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Astros’ offseason: Questions of the day

Dan P is in a bit of a writing funk. The best way to address that is to come up with some impossible questions and have loyal readers take a shot at them.

1) Where would Dusty Baker fall in your rankings of Astro’s managers? He’s managed three seasons and led the Astros to three ALCS appearances, 2 World Series appearances, and one WS win.

2) What percentage chance is there of signing Kyle Tucker to an extension before he heads to free agency after the 2025 season?

3) If the Astros are only successful in extending Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman, which one would you want it to be and why?

4) Of all the players likely to play for the Astros in 2023, who is the most critical to their success?

5) Who are you most worried about in the Astros division in 2023? Mariners, Rangers, or Angels?

6) Who would you most like the Astros to play in a 2023 playoff series? The Blue Jays with George Springer, the Twins with Carlos Correa, or the Yankees with Gerrit Cole? (I would include the Mets with Justin Verlander, but then there would be only one answer).

7) If the Astros came to the city of Houston and said we want a new ballpark by 2030, or we move – what would your response be?

8) New General Manager Dana Brown has a ton of responsibilities with the team. This includes scouting, the draft, signing MLB free agents, signing International free agents, player development, roster manipulation, and on and on. What is his most critical job?

9) Would you rather the team have a few health problems at the end of the season but have the best record in the majors, or would you rather they be fully healthy but be a Wild Card?

10) Who are you hoping is the big positive surprise for the team in 2023?

Your turn……

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79 responses to “Astros’ offseason: Questions of the day”

  1. My take regarding Dusty …

    The Astros have been so good/talented/put together that we have no idea whether Dusty is a good manager or not. He doesn’t really have to manage this team – he just smiles, utters timely ‘Dusty-isms’, and pretty much stays out of the way of the juggernaut.

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  2. My take regarding KTuck …

    KTuck is hard to read because he is quiet. He is neither a crazy-talented freight train with a million-dollar smile and boyish charm like George Springer, nor an ‘A-Rod-esque’ or Juan Soto-clone showboat like Carlos Correa. He is just a patient, hard-working, better-than-average because he is smarter-than-the-average-bear kind of baseball player. He’s no homer; he knows the score. He’s going where the money is.

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    • But Bill, he’s much better than better than average. Someone will pay him a whole lot of money if that’s the direction he wants to go in. Right now, I’m delighted to have him for the next three years as I watch our minor league outfielders develop. Just another intriguing side story to wonder about.

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      • I think this year – with the limitation on shifts – we will find out if KTuck is truly significantly better than average. I suspect you are right, and that we will all be wishing GM Brown had tied him up long term. But his exit velocity dropped last year, and he didn’t hit as well to the opposite field as a true star could be expected to – so we have to wait and see.

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  4. 1- Managers are as good or bad as the team around them. In that regard, he has the best Astros team in history around him, so….

    2 – Who knows? Depends on his agent and his expectation.

    3 – Bregman is 28, Altuve is 32. There is your answer.

    4 – It’s funny. I don’t think any one player is. That’s the beauty of this team. Even Altuve or Framber could go down for the year and they can still win. Let’s go with LMJ – the guy that you presume will be taking most of the brunt of expectation to replace a pitcher that that had a personal 80% win rate and the team won 70% of his starts. Can he come close to matching that?

    5 – Rangers. Keeping that pitching staff upright seems hard. BUT if they do, man will they change the culture of that place.

    6 – Beating the Yankees is ALWAYS fun.

    7 – Build them the park. But I think MMP has a bit more juice left in the box.

    8 – Scouting and development. A franchise that can’t give everyone 25 million dollar contracts – has to replace them with young, effective talent. They have done that with Pena and the young arms, can they keep doing it?

    9 – I don’t know if that is enough info. Did we crawl into the WC because everyone stunk, or did we get there because everyone was hurt and getting healthy? Obviously I think you want your best players healthy.

    10 – Yainer Diaz. Take the starting job away by hitting so well when he plays that they have no choice. You want to talk hit tool. Lifetime .321 average in the minors. That’s a career average. He has just 208 strikeouts in 340 minor league games. This is a guy that swings early, often, and makes good contact. Jose Altuve hit .325 in the minors. He had 184 strikeouts in 390 games. They are eerily similar in most regards.

    I know in Yainer, I’m preaching to the choir though. I would love to see him catch 70 games and DH another 30 this year (maybe even add another 5-7 at 1B, though Abreu doesn’t like days off). If he isn’t going to get 100 games and 400 PA’s though, let him get that at AAA.

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    • Your answer to the Bregman/Altuve extension is the right one. It is also the one that hurts me to answer because of my complete admiration for Jose Altuve.
      I would answer “younger Bregman” for the good of the team, but I want Altuve to be an Astro for his whole HOF career, too.

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      • Yes indeed, Dan presented it as an either/or, but I would take both in a heartbeat. Altuve deserves to finish what I believe will be a HOF career in one uniform, and ours looks the best on him.

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  5. My take on ‘who is the most critical’ to the 2023 team’s success …

    On offense, I guess I vote for Altuve. If he doesn’t set the table and tone, the offense doesn’t work.

    As far as pitching, I guess I vote for LMJ – he’s the most likely, in my opinion, to tank important games for us – either by getting injured or by losing movement on his fastball/bite on his knuckle-curve.

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  6. My take on who in the division to worry about …

    This may off-the-wall, but I vote for the Rangers. If we lose to the Rangers that means we are either badly injured or just plain under-performing, meaning we will also lose to the Ms, and struggle against the Angels. We need to beat the Rangers like a drum – even with the improvements they have made over the winter.

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    • I agree with you and Steven on who I worry about in our division because of their additions, but more so because of their new manager, who is a winner.

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  7. Mr. Bill / Steve – Arguably the best team the Astros had was the 2019 version which had the best hitting squad in the majors and basically tied for the second best pitching staff – but didn’t win it all.
    Undoubtedly Dusty had a ton of talent at his disposal this year, but it was not their best offensive squad lately. He still made the lineup calls that ended up with a rested squad in the playoffs. He handled the bullpen in such a way that they were a lethal weapon in the playoffs.
    It used to hack me off when folks acted like Guy Lewis could just roll the ball out on the court and his team would win. I think Dusty is getting a bit underappreciated.

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    • It is true that the 2019 offense was a bit better than the 2021 offense in almost every category. But don’t forget that the 2019 team came within one game of winning it all, and lost the decisive 7th game of the WS due to a fluke opposite field excuse-me homer given up by Will Harris, on a near perfect pitch, to Howie Kendricks that barely made the Chik-Fil-A netting. We also did not have one of our major pitchers – LMJ – for the entire year. Moreover, the Nationals were a team of destiny that year – and absolutely nobody could stop Juan Soto. The 2022 Phillies were a pretty good opponent – but they were not even in the same league as the 2019 Nats.

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  8. 1. Ranking anyone above Dusty would require some really creative logic. For the above (valid) statements that it is tough to really gauge his effectiveness given the talent on these teams, I agree, but would counter he took us within spitting distance of the 2020 World Series* with a team and organization that was in a bit of disarray.
    2. I’ll optimistically say 50%. Ultimately, I think it will come down to how he views the future of the organization’s chances of success in a year or two.
    3. Real interesting question on Bregman v. Altuve. I think we’ve seen both are much less effective when banged up. Thinking logically, I’d say Bregman for a couple reason: third base has been a really hard position to get good defense AND offense out of, he is four years younger, he doesn’t chase out of the zone as much, and his skillset is such that he could play 2B or 3B if needed. However, emotionally I’d say Altuve as I’m hopeful he’ll have the longevity needed to approach and pass 3k hits while only wearing an Astros uniform.
    4. Mauricio Dubon. Ok, no, if you’re reading, I can’t pick just one but rather would nominate our entire starting rotation.
    5. Mariners. They have a solid manager and a team that believes they can win. Texas and Anaheim have a couple stars and a bunch of big questions. Until they win consistently I won’t be concerned.
    6. Beating the Yankees is always fun
    7. I’m torn – I don’t really like MMP and the weird outfield. The first base side is awful to sit in for half of each game because of the sun. I’ve heard from a lot of people who won’t go to games because walking to the park scares them. At the same time, building a stadium every 30 years or so seems wasteful.
    8. Brown needs to be the GM and not be the head of scouting or invest too much of his time elsewhere. He needs to put good, smart people in those places and let them do their jobs.
    9. Wild card. It will be the hottest team playing in October that wins it all and it’s hard to be that team when you have players who can’t put 100% into each game due to health issues.
    10. LMJ. We need him to be healthy and act maturely on the mound.

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  9. 1. I used to say that Hinch was the best manager for our team at the time he arrived in 2015, bringing them along from their first playoff experience to annual dominance. But I just don’t like the guy. Spineless still comes to mind first. He lost his dugout and as a result, all these years later, Houston still suffers for it. Jose Altuve gets booed instead of being loved throughout the baseball world. In the meantime, Hinch has moved well beyond the fray and has a job managing in Detroit, at least for now. It still pisses me off. Dusty Baker gets my nod even as I know I’ll be watching him share CF between Jake and Chas. I guess I turned this into an anti Hinch response!

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  10. My take on who I would rather play in the post-season …

    I don’t really care which team[s] we play in the post-season. I just want our guys to healthy, play their best baseball – and WIN.

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  11. My take on the theoretical ‘new ballpark’ demand …

    If that happens, the decision I would want to see made would be all about the money. Ballparks, like sports teams, have to pay for themselves. Owners are entrepreneurs; they invest for profit/return-on-investment – as does every other business owner with brains. If a new ballpark won’t pay for itself in increased revenue [which is getting more and more difficult in a hyper-inflation economy like ours], it should not be on the table. Taxpayers should never be required to fund a new ballpark – anywhere.

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  12. 2. I’d say 50/50 at best with Tucker. He might have a heck of a 2023 season and put himself in the 300 million discussion. Yeah, I said that. The other thing is that the Astros have a pretty good level of depth in the minors with guys that are athletic, play the outfield and hit lefty. I don’t think the payroll allows us to extend everyone. The most expensive guy could be the one that goes.

    3. I think Altuve is already home. That said, I’d have to take Bregman. But I do think that Bregman will be tougher to sign. Maybe that keeps Tucker in the picture.

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  13. 4. Framber, because he’s next up to take on the stoppers role. If he keeps doing what he’s been doing, huge boost. If he goes backwards, that puts added pressure on the entire rotation.

    5. No worries, but Bruce Bochy gives the Rangers automatic credibility. If the pitching stays healthy, they might give us the most trouble. But I’ll take the M’s.

    6. Oh gosh, give me the Dodgers in the World Series. Underperforming whiners!

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  14. 7. Have there been rumblings about the Astros wanting a new park? I like the park. I like all the seating options. I like all the lodging and restaurants and bars all within walking distance. I like they way our team is built for the park. And there is no way the Astros are leaving town. They are loved in the 4th biggest city in the US. But to answer the question literally, yeah, someone would figure out a way to build a new 2 billion dollar complex with condos, hotels, a public library, a non denominational worship center, a fully automated parking garage and all kinds of other stuff.

    8. Player development.

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  15. My take on most important role of GM …

    I don’t personally think one part of the job is more important than another. But I think the length and legacy of his tenure will ultimately be determined by the quality of the drafts.

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  16. 9. I’d take the Wild Card without a second thought. We can win anywhere.

    10. Yainer. I keep reading that he’s not a bad catcher. I’ve seen prior stats on his throwing ability. If Brantley does not hit lefties, that gives the new kid quite a few at bats at DH while Yordan plays left. And Maldy should catch 100 regular season games max. Besides Diaz, our obvious choice, Hunter Brown most impressed me with his composure on the mound. I think he’s going to be good.

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  17. My take on health in playoffs vs. wining division / surprise player …

    Having a healthy team in the playoffs is definitely more important.

    The guy I hope is a positive surprise is Brantley – who I would like to see give us a big rebound/swan song year of:

    125 games [some LF, some DH, esp. at MMP where YA can play left]
    .300 BA
    .375 OBP
    .825 OPS
    20 HR
    30 DBL
    65 RBI
    average of at least .75 BB/SO

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      • What MLBTR failed to say was that the erroneous report of a $150 million offer came from an unnamed source in the Dominican Republic and that Framber’s agent was obviously hacked off about that, and not pissed off at the Astros, as MLBTR’s post seemed to infer.

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  19. Question 2.
    I think the chances of Tucker signing an extension are 1 in 3. I just don’t like the odds based on what I see, hear and feel.
    I hope I’m wrong, but, I just think he goes with the long term deal.

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  20. Since I already commented on 1 and 3, I’ll move to Question 4.
    Having lost Verlander, I think Framber Valdez becomes the most critical player to the Astros success.

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    • I thought about him when I read that yesterday. In the long run it might turn out to be good for Luis. Less thinking, more pitching. Hopefully, by the beginning of the season he will be used to it.

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      • Cole had an interesting, but down year. Threw the third most innings (200.2) in the majors, most Ks (257), but his ERA (3.50) was 30th for qualifiers, his 13 wins tied for 20th. Had decent walk numbers, but he gave up the 2nd most HRs in the majors (33).

        I thought maybe that is because of the short porch in his home stadium. But he actually pitched much better at home than on the road.
        Home – 3.20 ERA / 101 innings/ 14 HRs
        Road – 3.81 ERA/ 99 inning / 19 HRs

        But showing how bad a stat W-L record can be – he was only 5-5 at home and 8-3 on the road.

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      • I looked at this a bit earlier. He gave up 5 HR in a game at Minnesota in June. One was an inside changeup above the belt to a lefty. Three of the other four were on either hanging sliders or cutters…tough to tell which he was trying to throw. The last one was on a four seam fastball to Correa that stayed straight as an arrow. I would suggest that baseball cracking down on usage of foreign substances to improve grip impacts him more than most other pitchers. I’m not trying to throw him under the bus, but you can tell on days where he’s having trouble getting a good grip he hangs those breaking pitches. He likes to start it over the middle and let it break down and away, so on those days he is going to be susceptible to this. He needs to make an adjustment. Another factor to consider is that MLB wasn’t consistent with the balls used in games last year. Evidence has been raised that the balls used in NYY games were livelier than across the league. This doesn’t take into account humidor settings and only the properties of the balls measured in a lab after the fact.

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      • I think he’s properly rated. It’s also important to remember that 2019 was four years ago. That was an historically great season in which you can argue he should have won the Cy Young. Expecting him to repeat that again would be foolish.

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  23. Listening to Seth Payne on 610 AM this morning and he made a couple interesting points about the rule changes. His thought is the Astros may be holding back on pursuing an extension for Framber Valdez because they want to see if the no-shift rule adversely affects him as the most ground ball heavy pitcher in the majors. They also may be concerned that with the pitch clock, he will not be able to wander around clearing his head when he is in a jam.

    I guess taking this a step further, Kyle Tucker may not be wanting to sign an extension, if he thinks that no-shift rule will help pump up his stats in 2023.

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  24. My Astro manager rankings: Baker #1, Dierker #2, Hinch #3. Time for another song:

    I close my eyes
    Only for a moment and the game is won
    Astro teams
    Play before my eyes, with superiority
    Dusty B wins
    All the teams with Dusty B wins

    Not the same old guy
    Just a drop of analytics with old-school mentality
    All we do
    Criticize his moves, though we refuse to see
    Dusty B wins
    All the teams with Dusty B wins
    Oh, oh, oh

    Now, don’t hang on
    Nothin’ lasts forever but the Bonilla deal
    He’ll retire someday
    And all your moaning won’t a better manager employ
    Dusty B wins
    All the teams with Dusty B wins (all the teams with Dusty B wins)
    Dusty B wins (every team with Dusty B wins)
    Every team with Dusty B wins
    With him wins

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  25. And the Astros pitchers and catchers report tomorrow – so they should be practicing not balking and not taking too long to throw.
    The rest of the team reports on Tuesday…..

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  26. Dan P’s answers to Dan P’s questions

    1) Where would Dusty Baker fall in your rankings of Astro’s managers? He would be behind Hinch, but Hinch’s big fail of not stopping the cheating revealed a bad leadership gene. He’s the only guy to win an unquestioned World Championship after dragging a team in chaos to the precipice of the 2020 WS and leading the 2021 team to the WS. He’s number 1.

    2) What percentage chance is there of signing Kyle Tucker to an extension before he heads to free agency after the 2025 season?
    I’d say 10%. It just feels like he has every reason to wait until he’s a free agent. Had a good signing bonus, will make $5 MM this year and could be making a lot more for the next two arb years. Will be less than 30 when he becomes a FA. Could put up a huge year with the non-shift rules. Now – that is not to say that if the Astros can’t extend Altuve and/or Bregman and they have some extra cash that he might not sign back here as a FA, but he will probably want a lot more years than they want to give.

    3) If the Astros are only successful in extending Jose Altuve or Alex Bregman, which one would you want it to be and why? I choose Altuve with my heart and Bregman with my brain. Brain wins….

    4) Of all the players likely to play for the Astros in 2023, who is the most critical to their success? Framber. He’s being asked to be THE guy with JV gone. Hope he just stays who he is and does not worry about being THE guy.

    5) Who are you most worried about in the Astros division in 2023? Mariners, Rangers, or Angels? The M’s scare the heck out of me, because they could have easily knocked us out of the 2022 ALDS and next time they just might.

    6) Who would you most like the Astros to play in a 2023 playoff series? The Blue Jays with George Springer, the Twins with Carlos Correa, or the Yankees with Gerrit Cole? (I would include the Mets with Justin Verlander, but then there would be only one answer).
    Gotta be Correa for me. I love them knocking the Yanks out, but for a little cleanse of the pallet lets slip the Twins in here.

    7) If the Astros came to the city of Houston and said we want a new ballpark by 2030, or we move – what would your response be?
    I would say – Sorry Charlie – you will not be moving to a bigger market, so why would you really go.?

    8) New General Manager Dana Brown has a ton of responsibilities with the team. This includes scouting, the draft, signing MLB free agents, signing International free agents, player development, roster manipulation, and on and on. What is his most critical job?
    Has to be scouting – the life blood of sustainability is finding young cheap talent to develop.

    9) Would you rather the team have a few health problems at the end of the season but have the best record in the majors, or would you rather they be fully healthy but be a Wild Card?
    Fully healthy. If we had been fully healthy in 2021 we would be back to back winners.

    10) Who are you hoping is the big positive surprise for the team in 2023?
    I am hoping it is Yainer Diaz – would really love to have the catcher spot come up to hit and I’m sitting there not flinching.

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  27. Astros pitching coach said that they found out in December about the rule change that would outlaw Luis Garcia’s windup.
    They contacted Luis and he has been working on his new windup.

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    • That’s a good report. I don’t know what to think of Garcia. The guy has a 1.148 career WHIP. That’s pretty good. Can he move up to the next level, or have we seen what we’ll continue to see, a good, sturdy innings eater that is suspect in post season play?

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  28. 10. Who am I hoping is the big positive surprise for us in 2023?
    Hunter Brown! I would love to see him push his way up in the rotation and continue what he started last season. It would be great for the team, but even more so, it would enhance the reputation of the Astros prospect corps.

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  31. Question 11) Will Abreu be able to scoop bounced throws from his infielders like Yuli did? Well, he is at spring training early to work on his defense:

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    • According to Jose de Jesus Ortiz, along with Abreu – Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley and J.J. Matijevic are among the position players in camp early.

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  32. Just saw a video of the players arriving in camp and the Astros sign was also shown. However… it still reflects the club being the 2017 champs. Come on Crane! Update the sign to include 2022!

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    • I thought that a nice rewrite of the Lynyrd Skynyrd song “Gimme Three Steps” would be great here but I was never that good at rhyming time in school. I bet “Mr. Bill” could knock it out of the park in a heart beat..

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  37. Luis wrote this in Espanol. Here is my best effort at a translation:

    I was rocking the baby,
    drivin’ other teams crazy,
    when the top off Fuehrer Manfred blew.
    That pinstripe wrote a decree,
    aimed it squarely at me,
    said that rockin’ move just won’t do!
    He said, all eyes are upon ya,
    and we’ll call a balk on ya
    if we see that soft shoe.
    Yank hitters can’t hit a peep –
    your wind-up puts them to sleep
    and that’s not good for ad revenue!
    – and I said ‘Ex-CUSE ME?’
    why don’t you …
    gimme three steps,
    give me three steps, Commish’ner,
    give me three steps before I throw?
    Gimme three steps,
    cause I’m a three-step practitioner
    and I’m a three-step dynamo!

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  38. And there it is, Hunter Brown. Walk right in and take that rotation spot from LMJ. It is the opening you have been looking for. Just make sure you only take 15 seconds to get it.

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    • Hopefully Lance is simply experiencing a winters rust. But I can’t help but to think back to his last two post season starts, and especially the total breakdown in Philadelphia. Regardless, it sure is good to have Hunter Brown around.

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  39. Question #8. Dan lists a bunch of things and asks which is the most important of these in Dana Brown’s job.
    My answer is this: use all the jobs that Dan lists to add up to the one true job of Dana Brown’s and that is to field a world class baseball team every year.
    Draft well, sign well, extend good players well, scout well, let players walk who will cost more than you can afford to extend well, develop well, trade well and stick to the plan well.
    The Astros have a great fanbase, a stadium that is comfortable and loud, a owner who has proven he can afford to support a winner and then does it.
    There is a combination here to keep producing a winner for many years to come.

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  40. On the radio they said that McCullers has been “temporarily
    shutdown. Hunter Brown era may start sooner than later and they better have someone ready behind him….

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