5 reasons the Dana Brown hire is a good one

The Astros had been World Champions for 82 days on Thursday. The team had been without a general manager for 76 days. The news about the hiring process was coming out in small and infrequent glops like Heinz ketchup out of one of those old-school glass bottles.

There were a few mentions of a couple well-known candidates – David Stearns, who they never talked to, and former Astros catcher, Brad Ausmus, who they did. There were other candidates from the “who’s he” column – including Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown, former Giants general manager Bobby Evans, and Guardians assistant GM James Harris.

But every time the press talked to owner Jim Crane, he seemed to be in no hurry. Along the way, it seemed like he might stay with his little cadre of substitute GMs (Assistant GMs Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball, and Charles Cook, plus Hall of Fame Svengali, Jeff Bagwell) forever or until Stearns gets out of his Brewers contract at the end of the 2023 season.

And then suddenly, the announcement came down Thursday afternoon that Dana Brown was being hired and would be introduced at a press conference that very day.

My sons texted things like they had heard of Dan Brown but not Dana Brown. And I had never heard of him. But I went and looked back at his background and liked what I found. And here’s why……

  1. The Right Base – In this offseason, I’ve written several posts that demonstrate how important to the sustainability of a franchise’s success is both their homegrown draft choices and the development of their International signees. Dana Brown’s base focus is on scouting. Obviously, he will have to take over other aspects of the team with this new job, but even signing free agents and making trades better come from a great base of knowing who is out there.
  2. Success with that Base – I sent out this info after the hiring, but I will repeat it here. Brown has been in charge of the Braves’ scouting since before the 2019 draft and look what has already happened:

– Drafted Michael Harris 3rd round 2019 – 2022 ROY
– Drafted Spencer Strider 4th round 2020 – 2022 ROY runner-up
– Drafted Vaughn Grissom 11th round 2019 – In 41 game callup in 2022 slashed .291 BA/ .353 OBP/ .791 OPS
– Drafted Shea Langeliers in 1st round 2019 – key component of trade for Matt Olsen
– Drafted Bryce Elder 5th round 2019 – brought up in 2022 and pitched solidly (2-4, but 3.19 ERA in 9 starts and 1 relief appearance)

That is really, really impressive.

  • Applicability – Brown comes from the Braves, who just happened to have won the NL East, five seasons in a row. Similar to the Astros they have had to pick much later in the draft than they did in their darker days. Their dark days were not as dark as the Astros’, but still, they lost 90 or more games each year between 2015 and 2017. The ability to pick later but pick well is something that is important to the Astros, and I’m sure this did not escape the notice of the folks interviewing him.
  • A foot in two worlds – The proof will be in the pudding on this one, but he sees the value in both analytics and in boots on the ground scouting to a team. This probably played well with the committee as they undoubtedly want to blend the old school with the new world order of stats bleeding out your yin yang. Yes, the analytics helped give the Astros an edge, but they are not stopping that process, just ensuring that getting to see and know the prospects is not forgotten.
  • He played the game – Dana Brown played with Craig Biggio at Seton Hall. He was an OF in the Phillies organization who never got above AA.

Dana Brown Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Having played the game and having been chasing his dreams between the dugout and the front office for 33 years, these are very positive things and make one think of the Astros’ manager Dusty Baker, who has seen it all over a lifetime in baseball. Both of these men know what it feels like to strive to get to the majors and what kind of help they would have wanted to receive during that time.

The last time Jim Crane had to hire a GM, it was forced upon him by the situation (and probably by the MLB). In order to bring leadership quickly into a void filled with scandal, he perhaps pulled the trigger sooner than he wanted to. This time he took his time and did his due diligence. This is his guy.

Beyond that, it is a good thing but a sad thing that the Astros have the only black GM in the majors. There need to be more success stories that will draw more black young men to baseball over football and basketball.

Ultimately, we may all be griping about Dana Brown at some point. (That’s what we do). But there are many reasons to be positive about this hire today.

 

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47 responses to “5 reasons the Dana Brown hire is a good one”

  1. First of all, I was stunned to awaken myself to the fact that Brown was the only current African-American GM. I was further stunned to be informed of this, not by MLB itself, but by having to search around about it on the internet and finally finding a Yahoo article.
    * I like that he is a great scout.
    * I like that he has a good draft history.
    * I really like that he has good development history.
    * I like that he has a chance to lock up some of our younger players.
    * I like what he had to say about coming here to forge a long term relationship.
    * I was fine with how the club was doing before his arrival and I am fine with the fact that the Astros think that he is a “perfect fit”.

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  2. Maybe this prospect will fit into Dana Brown’s development plan:

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  3. I was reading some additional info on Dana Brown. He was head of scouting for 8 seasons for the Expos / Nats from 2002 to 2009.
    In that time he drafted 40 players who made the majors and 7 who became All Stars.
    Some folks may think that is not a big deal, but from what I’ve seen tracking draft classes over the years – that is a very strong performance.

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  4. There are some interesting guys for Brown to evaluate.
    * Jairo Solis has not pitched competitively for the Astros since 2018. That’s right, 2018. He has an invite to the major league spring training camp. What in the world does that look like?
    * Forrest Whitley! Top prospect for years. Bottom feeder for years. Where does this bonus baby fit in?
    * Enoli Paredes has been throwing 100 mph for years. Can they figure out how to harness that?
    *Scott Schreiber and Will Wagner aren’t even on the Astros top 30 prospect list, but wowed scouts in the Arizona Fall League. Do they suddenly fit in the Astros’ plans for the future?
    * How important is offense in the future of Astros catchers? Seriously, do you continue to produce nothing out of the nine spot after Maldonado’s time is up? By 2025, pitch framing will be a thing of the past. What would replace it in value from your catcher and does Brown have that near the top of his list? The only free agent catcher who had any offense just got $87 million dollar deal.

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    • Just great point after great point here OP. The first few tie into something that is rarely talked about and that is internal scouting. The evaluation of what you have is very important. You have to ignore who got what bonus money to sign. You have to ignore what round someone was taken and what the external prospect raters put players and harvest your own information and make your own decisions on who is worth what.
      The 40 man roster spot that Whitley takes up has value. At what point do you figure out how to make him a viable pitcher or let him go?
      Your catcher point is spot on too.

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    • I could care less whether or not we have anyone in the top 500. We know we have guys. And it sure can’t help but to compel our unrecognized minor leaguers to smile and keep working harder.

      1OP, great points. I think we should have a catcher that hits. I don’t rule out Yanier Diaz at all. And it is about time to do something with Whitney. I suspect he’ll get the ball early in often in Spring Training, as long as he’s whole. If he can’t play, he’s in the way.

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  6. I did not know or fail to recollect that Jim Crane tried to buy the Cubs in 2009 and Rangers in 2010 before finally coming to terms with Drayton McLane in 2011. We got a good owner. Crane has never shied away from taking an unusual or progressive approach. He’s done it again with Dana Brown.

    Dan, you’ve already noted numerous reasons why we should be in good hands with our new GM. It does beg the question of why a guy with such a resume has waited until the age of 55 to have an apparently rare enlightened ML owner give him the keys to arguably the best organization in baseball. I’m pleased today.

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    • Daveb
      We are kind of ignorant how an interview list of candidates is put together. We assume a committee kind of reaches out to others in the baseball world looking for worthy candidates. But you can’t like call your competitors to find out who they would recommend. They don’t want to give up their good people and don’t necessarily want you to find someone to beat you with.
      I guess you try to find teams that are doing well in areas you admire – and go for their staff

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  7. I am going to try to look at what Brown might want to do to sustain the Astros success and I am going to try to do it in order of importance, as I see it. This doesn’t mean its correct.
    1. Get your high school age prospects from the international free agent market. The Astros signed nine high school aged prospects for about the same amount of money as one high draft pick. Three of those prospects are considered to be good prospects. There is no way to do that in the draft.
    2. Draft college players with the hit tool and make sure one of your top two picks is at a position that you are weak on in your organization. When you pick in the bottom of each round, you need to count on your development team to get your young pitchers to the big leagues and to take guys with the hit tool and find positions for them to fit your team’s needs.
    3. Be smart about trying to extend players. Pick out the players you think have the skills for the future and combine that with their desire to stay with your organization for a long time.
    4. Don’t buy your bullpen! The Astros have bought theirs, and in 2023 they have over $42 million dedicated to it. That is not sustainable. They(Brown) need to develop their bullpen from within, so that when they do have a player or players who want and deserve extensions, they have room in their budget to do that. The Astros have 6 home grown starting pitchers including Hunter Brown, but Abreu is their only true, dependable, home grown reliever.

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  8. Yainer Diaz is ranked higher than Korey Lee on our top prospects list. And defensively too, with a 50 compared to Lee’s 45. So why has Lee always been the assumed next guy up? I guess it’s that Lee is the high draft choice guy. I’m not buying it. This should be an intriguing spring battle between the two guys.

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    • Since this is an assumption, not a debate, I look at the fact that when the Astros brought up Lee when Castro got hurt, they must have thought him more advanced defensively to back up Machete.
      I also see that Diaz went down to the Dominican winter league and did some catching work down there this off season.
      It is now 2023 and we have a new GM, so we go back to the Astros evaluations and see that Diaz has higher grades on his hitting tools
      than Lee does. Spring training comes and these two battle for the back up catcher spot behind Maldy. Now you have to decide who plays for the Astros 20% of the time and who plays at Sugarland 80% of the time and who benefits more from that scenario in order for the Astros to plan for next year and beyond when those two might be the Astros’ catchers.

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      • There could also be health, conditioning, cognitive skills, preparation ethic, durability, and on-field leadership issues that militate in Mr. Lee’s favor. As you more than most know, OP, being a full-time catcher at any level – especially the major leagues – can one of the toughest jobs in professional sports on both a person’s body and his psyche. Meanwhile, a catcher has to simultaneously serve as on-field psychiatrist, rabbi, and counselor for young pitchers under extreme pressure, keep the ‘mood’, ‘attitude’, and morale of the team in a positive state, and be the de facto defense coordinator.

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      • I meant that my comment was an assumption, not yours.
        I’m fixing to have to babysit a farm with 28 goats, six dogs, nine cats, two horses, a house, barn, shop, greenhouse and an ice storm predicted for tomorrow. I have all the stress I need. I wish Jim Crane had hired me!

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      • Good luck and Godspeed 1OP. My fancy new MacBook Air does not allow me, the pilot, to “like” posts, but you’d have surely gotten the nod. By the way, the locals here have plenty of goat stew recipes that I’d be happy to send along if you ever decide to thin the herd, or tribe as a batch of goats or sheep are referred to out here. Stay well.

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  9. This GM hire has that ‘new car’ smell we all like. But when the ‘new car’ scent wears off, what Mr. Brown did while with the Braves organization will mean less than nothing. He needs to do something FOR THE ASTROS that proves he really was the right man for OUR organization, at SUCH A TIME AS THIS. He will have to perform, and perform at a VERY high level for a top-tier team, or cries of LEMON! LEMON! will soon fill the air – and rightfully so.

    GMs are employees – they get valued and paid based on how much their presence and work actually advances the interests of business.

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    • Years ago some of us speculated that Hinch had very little control over anything and that lineups were sent down from the front office. I think this was largely in jest, but we should consider that Crane does not appear to be a big fan of the work that Click did. My fear is that Brown is coming into a situation where he has to look over his shoulder a bit too much. I hope I’m wrong as all indications are that he’s an outstanding judge of talent and capable of doing the job.

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  10. True, but everything the Astros did this off season to build the 2023 Astros was done by Crane and the Astros staff before Brown ever arrived. The only way Brown has to improve this team on the field is at the deadline and that is not a huge opportunity to put your stamp on the defending champs.
    Brown has a tough job.

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    • He can put his stamp on this club by getting extensions done for at least some of our rotation and guys like Altuve and Bregman. And if he pulled off a Tucker deal, well then he’d have a free pass from me for awhile.

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      • Isn’t the GM also the ultimate ‘buck-stops-here’ authority over both foreign recruitment/scouting and player development?

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      • I have no idea how the Astros’ front office really works, but I would expect that without a VP of baseball operations, the GM would be in that role. I would expect that the GM would be buck stops here on certain items, but would delegate other responsibilities. For instance:
        – GM would be responsible for the final say on who to draft, but his head of scouting (who in this case – he might keep) would be responsible for gathering all the data and personal information and making recommendations.
        – GM would be responsible for the final decision on who to sign from the International FAs, but someone(s) would be responsible for the gathering information and recommendations.
        – GM would have the final say (perhaps with Crane’s buy-in) on who to settle with before arbitration and the amount or who to go to arbitration with – but someone else puts together the case.
        – GM decides on items like Qualifying offers, who to not bring back from free agents, etc.
        – Player development is taken care of by a staff of people with someone other than the GM in charge of day to day, but GM would be responsible for giving that person guidance on philosophy and expectations
        – Signing free agents – other people gather the information, but GM with the owner’s buy-in decides who to pursue. I would think that the one’s gathering the information would also be giving input on the true value of the player. Negotiations by the GM I would think.
        – Trades – GM would give out their laundry list of what positions to pursue, others would gather the information and pass along who might be good candidates, whether they are rentals, etc. GM contacts other GMs to negotiate. Again – likely owner buy-in or veto (like last summer and Contreras)
        – Other stuff – he will need a lot of help handling the 40 man roster, handling the Rule 5 preparations on who to promote to the 40 man, who to let go, how to handle player movement between the minors and the big club. Injuries – he would need good input from the medical staff – will the pitcher miss one start and not go in the IL or will he be out a while, etc. etc.

        I know that I’m forgetting some stuff, but in the end the GM has tremendous responsibility, but maybe his biggest job will be to make sure he has people he can trust reporting to him.

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  11. I would hope that Dana Brown would fix the screwup by the Astros’ previous GM and put Tyler Brown into the bullpen where he belongs after wasting one of the Astros highest 2020 draft picks on him and then changing his role.
    I would hope that Brown would fix the previous GM’s screwup of the signing of Pedro Leon to a huge bonus and then ruining his development by playing him in a totally ridiculous infield move, after losing their star CFer to free agency. Leon was a CFer with a 70 grade speed and an 80 grade arm. His development program was a travesty! From what I can see, Jeremy Pena didn’t play SS in Corpus Christi and Pedro Leon was.

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    • I’m a bit confused. Pena missed 2020 like most MiLBers. In 2021 he was injured to start the year and ended up playing in Sugarland after recovering. Are you suggesting they should have sent him to AA instead? Regarding Leon, I doubt playing in the infield hampered his defensive development. Unless they want to move him out of CF to a corner spot the real learning curve for OF is how the different ballparks at the MLB level play differently. The question on him has to do with plate appearances and whether his bat can contribute enough to climb the ranks though.

      On Brown, I thought he was getting starts as part of the tandem nonsense. At first glance I actually like what I see in his numbers and agree with you. The BB total is killing him, but I think an eventual move to 100% relief appearances will be in his future and gets him to the big leagues.

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  12. I’m saying that Pena never played in CC because they had Leon at SS there. So, they skipped Pena in AA and sent him to AAA to play SS.
    If they had put Leon in CF where he belonged, they would have had room for Pena in CC at SS.
    And I disagree with you that trying to teach Leon how to play SS in 2021 and 2B in 2022 took time away from him concentrating on his hitting, which they should have been doing all along. Now, he is way behind where he should have been on his hitting.

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  13. While Leon is already 24, he’s only played in 187 minor league games to date. But so far his progress is dubious. Somehow he managed a .365 OBP and a .796 .OPS despite striking out 145 times in 115 games. But he can’t get away with hitting .228 much longer. And he does not know how to steal a base. I think the club needs to simplify his life. For instance, why would they put him at second base 20 times last year? It’s pretty clear that his best role is CF. But he might have to keep spending time in right, especially if Dirden shows that he’s close to being ready and Leon does not. I’d hate to see such a talented, costly investment turn into a bust for this organization.

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  14. Former Astro Dexter Fowler retires
    Former Astro prospect J.B.Bukauskas is DFA’s by the Mariners before he pitche with them or their minor league teams

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  16. The reinvention of Ty Buttery? He threw hard, with an 82 slider. Pretty good BB/K for the most part. This could be Dana Brown’s first big acquisition. He’s 6’6″ and goes 240!

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  18. When it comes to Leon, maybe, it could just be possible, that the guy never could hit?

    I would blame 3 years out of facing real competition as a bigger detriment to his ability to hit anything that isn’t straight or in the heart of the plate for his offensive woes. I wouldn’t blame moving positions.

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  19. And look, they aren’t going to get them all right. Dirden hopefully gets a chance, but let’s be honest, his numbers look closer to a AAAA guy than a major leaguer. But I’m sure he is going to get a chance, JD Martinez looked like a AAAA guy too. Leon can’t hit. At least yet. That can change. But if he can’t hit .250 or strike out less than 30% of the time against minor leaguers, at 24, he is going to find the rest of it even tougher.

    One thing is for sure, there isn’t another franchise around built from the inside this much that isn’t losing 100 games a year. KC, Pittsburgh, Detroit, they all try and use their minor leaguers too, but they fail. Its just us and Tampa. And it’s no secret those two franchises are similar in mindset. The rest of baseball has to play catch up by signing our stars when they leave for greener pastures, and they still can’t keep up. We literally have 2 guys in the starting lineup that we didn’t scout, sign and develop, and one of those will be entering his first year. Our entire rotation was either drafted or signed by us. Any other franchise built like that is going to lose 85+ games, we are the only ones that can pull this off.

    I hope that Dana Brown is an innovator. Luhnow was. He hit markets and put more scouts and more camps in the Latin countries than everyone else. He found more diamonds there than the rest of baseball by far. He wasn’t worried that a 5’5″ guy wasn’t on a top 100 list. He knew he could hit.

    That said, it’s not a secret anymore. Everyone is in those countries now. Brown’s job is to be what it appears Click wasn’t doing to Jimbo’s satisfaction, and innovate – because this team is only going to stay competitive as long as they can innovate. It doesn’t appear Crane believes in overpaying – or at least Springer, Correa, Verlander, and Cole all think that.

    So when I see “100 top prospect lists” that have a dynamic arm like Brown at 43 and no one else, I just think it’s the national media, again, disrespecting us. And yet, we will continue to roll.

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    • Steven, we’ll find out soon enough about those guys we’ve got in the minors. And we’ll find out which guys really want to continue to play for the Astros and which guys are motivated more by the highest bidders for their services. I’m pretty sure we’ll remain a very competitive team as long as Jim Crane owns the club. But one of these years we’re going to go home early. And then there will be hand wringing.

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    • I definitely agree on a concerted effort by multiple groups attempting to keep Astros prospect grades as low as they can get away with. How do you account for guys like Pena, McCormick, Meyers, Urquidy, de la Cruz, Brown, Wilyer Abreu, Luis Garcia, Enmanuel Valdez, and even Hunter Brown being left off all the major lists of prospect over the years and then suddenly appearing at the last second? How do you account for Forrest Whitley as the only Astros prospect listed in MLB’s Top 100 for two years in a row, 2020 and 2021, despite doing nothing to prove it?
      If they rank a good team’s prospects low, that team doesn’t have as much to make trades with. But if you rank another team’s prospects high, you give them more trade value to work with. That is the game played by the media to crank up their favorite teams.

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    • Thanks, Dan. One of the best things about this post was the fact that your lead-in gave a lot of room for us to hit on all aspects of AstroWorld, as Dana Brown is going to be involved in all of it.
      Wasn’t it great to hear from Diane last week?
      We need to hit the Billy Doran button a little more often.
      Still pray for Becky every night and think about her often. Hope you are OK, girl!
      With ice on the ground and more due in the next 36 hours, momma is making turkey soup from the carcass of a 30 lb. turkey we butchered last week, while I blog with Seventh Sojourn on the earbuds.
      Our babysitting the farm got wiped out due to the kid’s vacation being wiped out due to all flights out of Dallas being cancelled.
      The ice on all the water troughs was two inches thick this morning.

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      • Oh man, glad the Old Pro has some help around the farm even at the cost of your kid’s vacation.
        There might be some folks going what the heck is Seventh Sojourn?
        I know that music well (seventh “album” from the Moody Blues). I don’t count the earlier one with Denny Laine and Go Now before Justin Heyward joined.
        Most people know Isn’t Strange or I’m Just a Singer in a Rock and Roll Band. My favorite track always was New Horizons, one of their most beautiful tracks ever.
        When I went to Iraq for a year back in 2003 and I was flying out of here wondering what the heck I was doing, I was listening to that on my old Sony Walkman.

        Yes Becky, Diane and Sandy – always thinking about y’all.

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      • I’m still here.
        Just had a lot going on but try to find time to at least read.
        Always praying for Becky. Think of her often. Always good to hear from Diane as well.

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  21. Good morning. I’m missing our ladies and I’m missing Astro Colt 45. It’s a chilly 65 degrees and raining up here in the foothills of Nevis Peak. I’ve got a sweatshirt on as I drink my coffee. This is supposed to be the tropics, so it’s all relative! You guys stay warm and dry.

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