On a cold grey day here in the Land of Sugar, let’s look at what some “experts” are projecting for the Astros’ offense to produce in 2021.
In the chart below there are two sets of projected statistics (FG-S) Fan Graphs – Steamer and (BR) Baseball-Reference. A couple comments before you look at them for each of the ten players RIGHT NOW likely to get the most at bats. The Steamer stats include WAR, while the Baseball Reference does not. Also, Baseball-Reference does not project stats for a player like Chas McCormick, who has never played in the Majors.
Some thoughts after looking these numbers over…..
- In general, the FG-S and BR align pretty well on projected slashes (BA/OBP/OPS)
- In general, the FG-S shows a bit better numbers for doubles, HRs, Runs and RBIs than BR does
- The stats do not show any player(s) going nuts here. The highest BAs shown are Altuve with .280 and Alvarez with .284.
- Bregman is the only player shown getting to 100 runs scored or 100 RBIs. It is hard to not think that whoever leads off (Altuve?) would get to 100 runs scored.
- Unless they don’t think Yordan will play a whole year, the BR numbers for Alvarez seem almost laughable. If he is playing most of the time, the hitter we saw in 2019 should be surpassing 37 runs and 45 RBIs by June.
- Gurriel was pretty rotten in a surreal 2020 season. But will he only put up a 1.0 WAR in 2021? Before you answer that remember he put up 2.7, 2.3 and 3.9 WAR between 2017 and 2019.
- Carlos Correa shows decent numbers in both projections, but in his season leading up to free agency, you sure would think he might do something a bit more special.
- Kyle Tucker shows in both projections a regression in slash numbers – .256 BA/ .326 OBP/ .817 OPS and .252 BA/ .324 OBP/ .778 OPS. It just feels like the young man will continue to hit his stride and improve with his first full season of action.
- Of course, the numbers for Straw and McCormick are very dependent on what direction the team goes to fill the three open OF spots with free agents George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick.
Of course, all of this will be proved or disproved in between the foul lines. For most of us, Spring Training and the 2021 season cannot come soon enough.
What are your thoughts about these projections and how accurate or inaccurate you think these numbers may be?