Aug 17 2020

Astros’ numbers at the 1/3 mark

Even with a reduced schedule this season, specific numbers are easy to interpret while others are not.

The Astros only have one hitter over the .300 standard (Carlos Correa: .310) after 20 games. The Astros have five pitchers who have started games with ERAs at 3.00 or under (though for some this includes some relief innings): Justin Verlander (3.00), Zack Greinke (2.53), Cristian Javier (2.91), Framber Valdez (1.90) and Brandon Bielak (1.76). Those numbers we can understand. Others are tougher to judge, so we will try to help you with some equivalencies of how these would project over a 162 game season, based on games through Saturday.

  • Kyle Tucker leads the team with 14 runs scored (113 projected), which is crazy considering he has only 14 hits and 3 walks. Consider that Correa has 22 hits and 10 walks and only 7 runs scored at this point. (Tucker kept this up on Sunday, scoring two runs with his walk-off home run as his only hit on the day). 
  • RBIs? Well, Alex Bregman with 14 (113 proj.) is at the top, which makes sense. He is tied with…..Martin Maldonado, which is crazy. Bregman has the 14 RBIs with 21 hits, while Maldonado has 14 RBIs on only 10 hits on the season. Of course, it has not helped Bregman that for a big chunk of the season he was hitting behind two sub-Mendoza dwellers in George Springer (.185 BA) and Jose Altuve (.181 BA).
  • After slashing a couple of dingers in games 19 and 20, Yuli Gurriel took over the top spot in home runs with 5 (40 proj.). Yuli took a big power step last season going from a career-high of 18 to 31 homers in 2019. He is back at it again in 2020.
  • Gurriel and Correa are tied with 22 hits (178 proj.). It is weird to see Jose Altuve back at 15 hits (that is only 121 projected) when he has not been injured or missed time.
  • Along with leading the club with his .310 BA, Correa also leads with a .402 OBP. Gurriel, on the other hand, is leading the team in slugging with .577 and OPS with .960.
  • Cristian Javier, Brandon Bielak and Lance McCullers Jr.were all tied with 2 wins (16 projected) at the 20 game mark, while McCullers took the lead Sunday at three.
  • Ryan Pressly is leading with 2 saves (16 projected), but since he had a late start to the season, it is hoped that he picks up the pace over the last 40 games of the season.
  • The top inning eater to date has been Framber Valdez at 23.2 IP (192 IP projected), which has been a great help, especially considering how well he has pitched.
  • With all the injuries and all the extra-inning games, the bullpen has seen a lot of action in the early going, but none more than Cy Sneed and Blake Taylor, who have been in eight games (65  projected) to date.
  • Despite walking almost one batter per inning, Andre Scrubb and his wonder drop curve have yet to have an earned run charged against him (0.00 ERA).
  • Behind Justin Verlander and his fabulous 0.667 WHIP in his only start, Cristian Javier is next in line with a terrific  0.831 WHIP in 21.2 innings pitched.
  • On the plus side, Josh James has been leading the team with 12 Ks/ 9 IP, while also “leading” the team by allowing 12 walks/ 9 IP. Which pretty much explains why he is no longer starting.

Anyways, that is where the Astros stand 1/3 through this shortened season. What has caught your attention to date?

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42 comments on “Astros’ numbers at the 1/3 mark”

  4. As the saying goes, “statistics are for losers.” What really matters is having enough wins to get to the playoffs and hopefully a top seed. We are at the top of runs scored but that seems less important when you are just above .500. Stats are a measure of a plethora of individual performances and that is nice but yesterday was a perfect example of statistics don’t matter as Tucker comes through with a walk off home run. The pitching is coming around but the hitting is still sporadic. The biggest stat that I think is very telling is hitting with RISP. We still are lagging big time. Yesterday we were 2 for 5 which isn’t bad but we went hit-less for over 5 innings. Hopefully, we’re about to get over the hump.

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    • Yeah Z – they are averaging 7.5 runs scored in their wins and 3.6 runs in their losses. They are up to 3-5 in one run games after the last two games against the Mariners – so that is better. After Correa’s 0 for 4 they have no one hitting over .300.
      I keep waiting for someone to really go on a big streak and carry the offense – but it is just not happening this season to date.

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  5. The Rockies should be a good test. Pretty good club early.

    We are 1-7 against teams that are a combined 43-24.
    We are 10-3 against team that are a combined 22-46.

    I know, that’s my cynical stat of the day.

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  6. The Astros have four All Stars missing from their lineup:
    Springer
    Brantley
    Altuve
    Alvarez
    That is a tough thing to overcome. It would be great if a couple of them showed up. It’s one thing to have so many pitchers disappear. It’s another thing to have your Ace injured, your Closer injured and four of the best hitters in the AL not hitting.

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    • It is a good point, OP.
      Brantley hasn’t played since Aug. 11th, but in the six games leading up to the IL he was 2 for 24, so basically not hitting
      Correa is on an 0 for 11 streak
      Altuve is 6 for his last 34
      Springer 3 for his last 17

      It is a struggle

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    • Very good point 1OP. Our GM seems to be quietly (very quietly) trying to get guys able to play again. The only goal now has to be to win enough games while getting people healthy for the post season tournament or whatever it is called.

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  8. Of the two runs Seattle scored yesterday, the first one was scored by a guy who walked, and the second one was scored by a guy who advanced to 2B by a two-out walk and then scored on a single.
    Astros pitchers are walking too many batters.
    But! That may be the reason they are not giving up so many hits.
    On the other hand, how many times yesterday did Astros’ batters take a first pitch meatball? You know, back in the old days of last season, when teams had 7 or 8 guys in the bullpen, running up the pitch count made sense. Now, with 11 relievers on a team and taxi squads on standby, looking for and swinging at a 91 mph fastball down the middle of the zone might be at least considered.
    Tucker has been swinging at those first pitch fastballs, and missing. Everyone else is patiently taking them and then looking at curves, sliders, cutters and changeups the rest of the at-bat.
    Remember when I said McCullers gave up 8 runs because he had no curve ball? He said his curve reappeared yesterday.

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  9. In 2019, the Astros were 3rd best in the AL in allowing walks – they allowed 2.8 per 9 IP – the league average was 3.3
    In 2020 the Astros are tied for 11th in allowing walks at 4.3 while the league average has gone up to 3.6.

    However, in baseball reference they have a team pitching age based on usage.
    In 2019 the Astros were the 3rd oldest pitching staff in the AL at 29.9 y.o.
    In 2020 the Astros are the 2nd youngest pitching staff in the AL at 26.8 y.o.

    My belief is that control issues come with youth and though the kids may improve, it is something we will face most of the season.

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  10. In regards to the Baker posts above…I think injuries are playing a part in our struggles,yes, but my concern is more along the lines that he seems to have anti-chemistry with the team, like he’s on a different plane of existence with them. I haven’t seen it this bad since Jimy Williams . I was going to say Cooper but I think it was mainly Oswalt who had a problem with him, at least publicly.

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      • And that all brought me to the “Where’s Waldo” question, as in what ever happened to Bo Porter?
        Well after the Astros booted him, he was a 3rd base coach for the Braves and then was a special assistant to the GM.
        In 2018 spring training time frame, when there was a big harrumph about how slow the free agent market was – MLB had him run a camp for unsigned FAs that closed after about a month.
        And in the “I did not know that” department – since 2019 he has been a kind of Mike Stanton for the Washington Nationals working on their pre and post game shows.

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    • yeah dave it would only be fair to see how he did with all his ammo available, but i agree with billy in that the chemistry isnt there, at least not yet. altuve doesnt seem to connect well with him. with all the injuries to the pitching staff, its tough to judge his handling of it, but i dont see a real feel for that as yet either. i wonder how it is in the clubhouse and with the younger players.

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    • Just another swipe at the Astros and the “cheating” scandal. These people will never stop. Twenty years from now they’ll still be talking about the “cheaters” and how all “those teams” were screwed out of a World Series Championship.

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  14. As these are/were my two favorite teams on sports i am normally neutral when the Astros play the Rockies. Not so much this year.

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  15. Correa with a stinging 2 run double.
    Altuve watching a first strike fastball waist high right down the middle and trying to pull a breaking ball on the outside corner that he grounds into an easy out.

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  17. I will be surprised to see Springer back in there tomorrow. He looks like he jammed his wrist again. I’m more impressed with Bielak everytime he pitches.

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  19. Well its a good thing the Astros are getting brilliant pitching because their offense has been anything but.
    Astros win 2-1 behind Bielak, Raley, James and Taylor!!

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  20. Great performance today from two great teams. Nolan doesn’t look like himself both at bat and at 3rd, much like Bregman was early. Both pitchers had great stuff tonight. Bielak is a keeper. He reminds me of someone but I can’t quite place who. I don’t think we’ll see Urquidy this season so it’s good we have him. A rotation of Verlander, McCullers, Bielak, Javier, and Urquidy is a nice one.

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  21. After starting the season losing 5 out of 6 one-run games, the Astros have won their last 3 one-run games. Our pitchers certainly contributed to these wins, but I prefer to see the hitters start raking so we can win by 3 or 4 (or 10) runs.

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  22. I went to sleep wondering if the good guys could hold on to yet another one run lead, especially as they approached the dreaded 10th inning, which I no longer watch even if it’s 3 in the afternoon. There will be plenty of bumps in the road, but it’s great to see young pitchers stepping up. How about some bats now?

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  23. It is frustrating watching the guys not going with the pitch and taking such impossibly hard swings. Altuve needs someone to dial him back – he has George Springer disease – swinging like he wants to hit a 500 ft home run. And his pitch recognition is terrible.
    The young pitchers are holding this team together. Does Bielak remind anyone of Mark Portugal? I don’t know why I say that. He reminds me of someone – just like Billy C said above

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  24. I am sure someone watched the technical glitch, a couple of nights ago, when the game was on the alternate station and we had to listen to it in Spanish for an inning. My Spanish consists of Taco Bell, Guadalajara, and Gringos. LOL

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