Astros offseason: Dan P has a personal Q&A

The style of this blog has been to bring up Astro related subjects and attempt to engage you, the reader with questions about the subject of the day. Your opinions are valued and add a lot to each post.

 

Today, we will stray a bit from that formula and this will be Dan P asking Dan P what he thinks about a number of topics related to  the Astros off-season.

Q: Who is the most critical Astro-related person this off-season?

A: It may sound surprising to say – but my choice is owner Jim Crane. I see him as the key figure on two major off-season items.

1) The team budget and their dance around the luxury tax line, drives so many personnel decisions. It is key to who they can pursue in free agency. It is key to who, if anyone, they must jettison for salary reasons. It is key to how much of the roster will be filled up with minimum major league wage prospects from the minors.

2) It is probably a good assumption that Crane will be the central figure in whatever punishment is meted out to the team (if any) from the alleged cheating scandal. It is probable that there will be some give and take and maybe a little throwing folks under the bus to get to the final decision. “How about Hinch and Luhnow suspended for a season?” “Or how about I accept Luhnow’s resignation?” Or whatever. That is assuming that they don’t find that Crane had a hand in it…..

Q: Since you brought up the luxury tax, how does that work and how might the Astros address it?

A: Glad you asked. The luxury tax hits the teams for a certain percentage for every dollar spent above an agreed to limit in payroll (plus other items such as benefits, and minor league contracts). The % tax is based on the number of times (in a row) that a team exceeds the tax – starting off as 20% for first offenders and rising with each consecutive season. If a team falls back under it resets so that the next time it exceeds will be as a first offender %.

Right now the Astros are an estimated (by Sportrac) $10 MM over the limit, so they would have to pay a $2 MM tax as a first offender. If they added another starting pitcher (let’s say at $15 MM), a catcher ($7 MM) and a reliever ($5 MM) their tax would go from $2 MM to about $7.5 MM. This is only about a 3-4% increase vs their overall payroll which would have been in the $240 MM range after these changes.

While, the Astros may end up exceeding the luxury tax, it is a good guess that they will make some moves to lessen both the payroll and the tax here. Who might be candidates to head elsewhere by trade and cut these numbers down?

  • Josh Reddick and his $13 MM salary stands out in this regard. It is likely if they traded him they would either have to swallow a chunk of that salary or throw a prospect in to lessen the blow to the next team. This could be a $8-10 MM savings
  • Roberto Osuna and his estimated $10.2 MM arbitration settlement has also been tossed around. You would think his age (not yet 25), and career stats (154 saves/ 2.75 ERA) at that age, along with keeping out of trouble since coming to the Astros would make him very tradable. But the PR side to his situation might make it a tough sell.
  • Carlos Correa and his estimated $7.4 MM arbitration salary might be another spot that would yield savings, but it sure would have to be the offer of the century for the Astros to let Correa and his two years of control to go.
  • The collective piddle of salaries for Jake Marisnick (est. $3 MM), Aledmys Diaz (est. $2.4 MM), Chris Devenski (est. $2 MM) and Joe Biagini (reported $1 MM) would take small bites out of both the payroll and the tax.

Dan P thinks…..that the Astros will sign FAs or trade for vets to add about $20 MM of salary and then will mostly offset that with trades that send Reddick, Marisnick, Devo and Biagini elsewhere. They will take a small hit as a first time offender over the tax limit.

Note: After this was written, but before it was published – it appears that Marisnick is heading to the Mets in a trade. 

Q: And since you also brought it up, what do you think the fall out will be on the alleged electronic cheating by the team?

A: The Astros will be fined $5 MM and will lose a first round pick for the next two seasons. A major figure (Jeff Luhnow) will resign and another (A.J. Hinch) will be suspended for the 2020 season. They will not vacate the crown. These predictions are for entertainment only and should not be used for wagering purposes….

Q: Who might the Astros pursue in free agency?

A: While we hear that the Astros were after Zack Wheeler, who the Phillies reeled in at 5 years / $118 MM and who knows what they may or may not offer Gerrit Cole (who is estimated by mlbtraderumors at 8 yrs/ $256 MM). But I think that more in the Astros wheel house might be a high spin rate, not so high velocity pitcher like Julio Teheran (estimated at 2 yrs / $18 MM) or even revisiting Wade Miley (estimated at 2 yrs/ $16 MM) or …. Dallas Keuchel (3 yrs / $39 MM)? That is probably a big no on the last one at least. Maybe they will take a 1 year flyer on Alex Wood or Adam Wainwright (both estimated at 1 yr/ $8 MM) or perhaps Josh Lindblom (est. 2 yrs/ $8 MM) who is returning from a successful run in Korea. Dan P thinks that Lindblom feels like the Charlie Morton/ Wade Miley flavor of the year.

Catcher needs? I really think the team will bring Robinson Chirinos back (est. 2 yrs / $10 MM), especially if a certain Cy Young award winner has a say in it.

Bullpen help? How about the last guy the Astros faced this season? Daniel Hudson (est. 2 yrs / $12 MM) is again a guy with the high spin rate the Astros love to grab.

Q: How do you feel as a fan this off-season?

A: I feel a bit bummed out. The Astros should have won the World Series at home in one of the last two games and just did not get it done. Then on top of that, the crowning glory of our baseball lives is now being tarnished. I will power through this, but it will take a while.

 

84 comments on “Astros offseason: Dan P has a personal Q&A

  1. Wrote yesterday we’d trade Marisnick for a prospect.

    Looks like we got 2 from my favorite, Mets. NOT!
    Didn’t Luhnow understand how bad the Davis trade was?!

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  2. At first glance, not a whole lot for Jake. The lefty looks like a journeyman unless maybe there is something Strom can do to him. The young outfielder Corona though, has a good young eye and can run fast. Seems to have some pop in the bat too. But what is most encouraging to me is that at least someone is willing to do business with the Astros!

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  3. It’s always interesting when Dan P talks to himself. Certainly hope Chirinos is back. Now. Fined $5MM, loss of first round picks two years, Luhnow gone, and AJ Hinch suspended one year is for “entertainment”? Sounds to me like you’ve already powered through.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. I like the Marisnick trade. What we got back seemed to be fair for one year of a #4 outfielder who strikes out a ton and has a fairly low OBP.
    Bye, Jake. I still prefer you to Robbie Grossman.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Blake Taylor has pitched 7 years, and logged 11.1 IP in AAA [roll my eyes.]

      Cionel Perez has better velocity, Valdez has a better breaking ball..

      As wasted a choice as Ross Adolph, or Scott Manea. We traded two players now to the Mets for minor league organizational depth. The centerpiece Luis Santana has zero power, and will likely get beat out by Pena, Nova, Kessinger (when he moves over), Enmanuel Valdez, or Jonathan Arauz.

      If Mets wanted him so badly, then why not get #7, LHP, David Peterson, or ask for Brett Baty?

      Not a happy camper here.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Let’s face it – this was a minor salary dump and with those in the off-season for someone who you have a much cheaper substitute and who probably never will be more than he is – you kind of take what you can get.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Why do you think the Astros could get anything better than JD Davis or Marisnick? They freed up a 40 man spot and saved money in the process in both cases. That was the objective.

        My only concern on this trade is that if it makes it less likely for Springer to sign back with us after 2020 then it is a net loss.

        Liked by 1 person

      • I’ve never read a Mets blog that wasn’t ecstatic about the Davis trade.

        We undervalued Davis, same as Laureano for Bailey, same as Villar for Sneed. I’m upset we have paltry major league production to date; I’m upset at the return. The players were blocked here, sure. But what did we get for stacking the A’s and Mets lineup?

        The answers will trickle in 2-4 years from now. Meanwhile… I need to work on my optimism, too!

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      • Yes we may have undervalued Davis – but we also sent a so-so reliever for a prospect none of us had ever heard of in Yordan Alvarez. I’ll be glad to lose a few of these trades of really marginal guys if we can get an extraordinary guy once in a while.

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      • I certainly agree on Alvarez, since I was shouting from the rooftops the first time I saw him in West Palm Beach this year. The pride of scout, Charlie Gonzales.

        Good point, Dan.

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      • I’m happy to see JD Davis with an ML job. But he’s a DH down the road. For all those good offensive numbers, he ultimately posted a 1.0 WAR. Hard to find a place to hide him in the field with a -2.4 D war.

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      • We agree on Davis’ dWAR, dave, but he had never played LF until 582 innings this season — he just commented about how that wasn’t easy to pick up. But, as you look at UC-Fullerton and our minors, he was always a 94ish fielding percentage. Bregman only slightly better at 96%. Neither were Billy Spiers in the hot corner.

        It’s water under the bridge, but the way it played out, Bregman was hurt a few weeks initially, and Davis could have taken those DH at-bats until Alvarez was up, over nephew. Not many could have predicted things would turn out how they did, and anyway we wanted Diaz instead. Considering his Cuban presence in the clubhouse, as opposed to Davis who felt blocked, it was probably the best chemistry move.

        My only question was, Santana Adolph Manea? Hope one of them pans out…

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    • Diane, GoStros1 is having the same snowball fight about trades between the Mets/Astros over at the Crawfish Boxes.
      It’s nothing you said. It’s his problem.

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      • Diane is a sweet person. I was just letting her know there are so many in the system, in case that was an interest of hers. Didn’t know I should apologize for that..

        And, no, I don’t have to agree with every move the Astros make. Not happy about the way the season turned out, or the trouble we’re in. Fortunately, it’s just a game/pastime, while life and relationships are so much more important.

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  5. Dan, fully agree on Crane, especially if the Astros were indeed cheating and he was unaware of what was going on. If he did not know what was going on, he’s got to have lost at least some confidence in Luhnow. And he’s probably pissed to have his investment sullied.

    We’ve got the first bit of a glimpse that we’ll be shedding a salary here and there. Would we move two outfielders?

    That’s a bit of a harsh sentence coming from Dan! But I’d shrug it off. And then I’d say that Hinch should also resign if suspended by the league for a year. That’s where Crane might come into play with his own tougher response. What if the interim manager happened to come up with a World Series win in 2020? You don’t want Hinch waiting in the wings.

    Dan, speaking of Charlie Morton, can’t we just trade a couple young of guys for him and damn the budget torpedo? I just don’t want to go the Miley or Keuchel route again. Could happen though.

    And yeah, Chirinos will be back even if Jose and Verlander have to give him something under the table. He’s really a good team guy.

    I still think about what might have been if Cole started the 7th or Zack was given the chance to get out of the 7th. Maybe Hinch over managed a bit when it really counted. But by the body of his work, I can’t hold it against him. The World Series is tough to win even if you’ve got the best team. I still think we’ve had the best group for three years now and that’s only counted for one title. Think about how Dodger fans and Yankee fans must feel.

    In the meantime, I’m looking forward to seeing who steps up and plays a significant role on the 2020 club. There will be someone!

    Liked by 1 person

  6. I want to go back to non=tender. Luhnow could have saved the money on Jake and others. But he obviously knew someone would give him table scraps for Jake. A Non-tender gets nothing in return. Two low A prospects is better than nothing. Not much, but better.

    Liked by 1 person

    • So did our #1, AC.
      Korey Lee looks to have been a great underslot pick, especially considering the Orioles had over $13M to spend and we had a little over $5M.

      Liked by 1 person

      • what is the outlook on Lee? where will he play this year and how long before he is a viable piece for the major league club? i dont get to delve into the minors much so i ask of yall that do.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Astros started him in short season NYPL, and he had a fine year with 83 total bases in 64 games, after a slow start.

        He should get through Quad Cities, up to Fayettville in 2020. Perry and Stubbs’ younger brother are all trading roles between Catcher, 1B and DH. But Lee is so athletic he can play SS, and LF.

        Not sure what Callis projects, but I’d think he’s a late-’21, or 2022 candidate to join the team. 2023 is Altuve’s last season. We are going to have a LOT of young guys pushing for 2B then! Guys who can play all over the field.

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  7. Dan, I really like your post. I was so busy yesterday that I never had time to absorb it.
    The Astros’ problems with the scandal makes it very hard to WANT to focus on the team, because I kind of want to back off because the season coming up is so blurred with uncertainty.
    The Marisnick trade yesterday brought some of the focus back. Myles Straw made the Marisnick deal possible and the seeds of that trade may have been planted at the GM meetings a couple of weeks ago. The basics are to find a trade partner, have a guy in place at league minimum ready to step in the position of the player you’re trading, shed the payroll and get a couple of guys to put into the organizational system who have a chance to develop.
    I think we may see a couple of similar trades in the next few months.

    Liked by 1 person

      • dan i am wondering why i get chastisedfor saying hey i got that prediction correct (when that happens in here fairly often) then the very next post the very first comment has the same thing and doesnt get chastised? lets at least be consistent if we are gonna call people out for their posts.

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      • I was really only kidding you rj – that wasn’t meant seriously – sorry if I came across that way – so I didn’t repeat what I thought was a joke – sorry again

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      • no problem dan. i interpreted your response incorrectly. my apology to you for that. you are usually so even handed, it got to me a bit i was being singled out. i must have gotten out of the wrong side of the bed the day i read it. now back to this post.

        i agree crane is the most important piece of the puzzle here.
        as far as payroll goes, i think they will continue to try to pare it down a bit, but really besides reddick there is not many places they get pare it down alot. osuna is our closer and will remain so in my opinion. is there another proven closer that we can get for less that 10 mill?
        correa isnt going anywhere, have said it many times, ill say it again.
        so far i have seen ZERO evidence of this cheating scandal, we may lose a draft pick, but unless there is hard evidence that electronics and/or cameras were used and it can be proven luhnow or hinch knew about it while it was ongoing, both will be back.
        the free agent question is hard to pin down. we need pitching (isnt that always the case?) we need catching and i believe you are right on saying chirinos will be brought back if at all possible. hudson would also be my pick if i had my druthers for a RP addition big splash.
        as a fan i feel the pain of being sooo close to a championship and not being able to take it with TWO chances at home. this cheating thing wont bother me much at all UNTIL/UNLESS evidence is uncovered and brought forward.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Man if you are agreeing with me more than 90% of the time – you must be wrong 20-30% of the time (that is another joke!)

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    • You were right about Framber Valdez before anyone on the internet that I could tell. And Quintana was only a little well-known before you wrote about him. You’ve also made some wise suggestions as a “general manager” in years’ past. I’m guessing you read the minor league box scores when you have time, and do comparisons of other team’s prospects when you see them dominate us.

      TRS (Brad Kyle) cited above has some great articles/videos, when if you don’t subscribe to MiLB televised games, it’s usually the only footage fans have of these prospects.

      Now that the “Astros Plan” of downsizing the minors, and unpgrading the facilities will be taking effect, perhaps the access will be more available.

      Frankly, the way the Astros are secretive about their processes, it’s been more difficult to get the info. That’s supposed to be a good thing for the team, but not for us fans. You have to really dig deep to find out when a pitcher has gained 3 mph, or realize his ERA is inflated in part by poor defense/”working on his stuff.” Devin won’t go scout the Carolina Leagues anymore for us.

      Liked by 1 person

      • You are right about the Astros being secretive. The lengthy article tells as much about the Astros as it does about Quintana. Although it is long, there are no quotes by either the Astros or Quintana in it. Not one!
        The Astros do to us what they do to Brad Kyle. They leave both of our groups to guess and educate ourselves with history and stats to make our guesses. Then, the Astros go and do what they do.

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      • Interesting article.
        Quintana is going to have company at 1B, as you know.

        Jones, and Matijevic will come callin’ this Spring.
        You have Shaver and Adams who were the big bats promoted from Fay’ville. Shaver is terrible at Catcher and 3B.
        You have Nathan Perry, and Korey Lee who are coming on strong. I think Toro and Tanielu can play there. Not a fan of Alvarez, as I once thought he might be at 1B.
        Lest we not forget Joe Perez is really coming around.
        CJ Stubbs is going to be a machine, but I’d like to keep his arm in play. That will be very soon, as he flies thru the system.

        Quintana raising his hands is a great analogy. But if I remember correctly, yes. Quintana isn’t Rule 5 eligible until Dec ’21. That means we won’t start his clock ’til he forces us.

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      • Oh, I forgot two guys, OP.
        Remember the two we got for Max Stassi?
        Rainier Rivas and Raider Uceta, both will be 19 from Venezuela, really hit the ball! Even though they are OF, they have size and some experience for 1B.

        When once 1B, and Catcher were bereft of talent in the system, it’s now a strength.

        Liked by 1 person

  8. I wonder if the Angels will get a couple of writers to leak a story to the public that they are willing to go to any length to sign Garrett Cole, the way the Yankees have used Martino and Passan to deliver their message this morning? Or will the message delivered from the NYY today just get the Angels to move on to the next guy in line?

    Liked by 1 person

    • The Yankees know Gerrit and Amy’s weaknesses. Plush accomodations, the limelight when it’s time, good wine and jazz, amazing cuisine and shopping.

      The Angels have “home.” Moms and Dads, the place the two of them always planned to raise a new family.

      Not saying Cole was disengenuous to NY by saying he had no bias. But he did say once that the day after 9.1.1. was the only day anyone ever felt sorry for NY. It was probably a heated battle comment, because $275M is really that much better that $200M to him and his “legacy.” I don’t fault him for thinking in those terms, because he’s the best pitcher on the planet, imho. Maybe the best who ever pitched here, if you look at some metrics.

      Why can’t he go to the NL, Padres?

      Liked by 2 people

      • Do not discount the fact that California has a 12.3% state income tax where the majority of his income will be. NY has only an 8.82%. Most readers and followers are likely enjoying the 0% that Texas’ legislature has gifted you. Now, I’m not up to date on all of my tax laws, but if Cole signed in San Diego he’d get taxed for 81 home games as well as an additional 8-9 against both the Dodgers and Giants. Excepting interleague matchups, signing with the Angels would only carry 81 games in state. In addition, Cole should be in the running for some major endorsement upgrades. Playing in LA or NYC would be the most lucrative for this. Playing in San Diego would not. As such, I think the Padres gave away the money they’d have to add onto any offer from LAA or NYY to watch Machado be mediocre last offseason. I’m assuming in this argument we can ignore those great Colorado schools and put the race squarely between LAA and NYY. I honestly do believe Houston still has a shot, but it’s a slim one that depends upon Manfred’s action and integrity as well as the NYY and LAA teams dropping the ball.

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      • Cole is definitely the type to consider every angle.

        For any of you who have the time, and aren’t familiar. We lost a really good one in Collin McHugh, among these free agents. His podcasts highlight his easy-going intelligence, and those players he interviewed gave us a real sneak peek into their lives. Highly recommended listening. Gerrit Cole was very cerebral, as was Doolittle. Strom, prayerful and Harris good ol boy nature were really good, too.

        https://twelvesixpodcast.libsyn.com/#

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  9. Drove the 4-wheeler to my new hunting spot this morning and was in the chair by 6:15. At 7:00 the sun was coming up and everything was so beautiful and fine.
    By 7:30 I had seen 3 coyote, a rarity, but I was freezing and I couldn’t understand it. At 7:40 I was back at the 4-wheeler and the seat was iced over.
    Tomorrow, I will use the big gloves, not the light ones. The dew, which had iced over the seat in an hour and a half, was surely on my clothes too. That explains a lot.

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  10. Re: J.D Davis. He has been quoted saying he saw or heard of any indication of cheating during his brief time on the Astro bench in 2017 and 2018. It what I find more interesting is that he says no one from MLB has contacted him regarding the issue. I would have thought that MLB would have contacted any potential witness during that time frame.

    Liked by 1 person

      • New Yorkers just respond that Fiers was inner sanctum, and Davis was a freshman without any knowledge. I believe J. D. would have known.

        Even before this season began, Luhnow talked about instruction of the prospects, saying we know they won’t all stay with the org, but it’s important to teach them our ways nonetheless.

        On a little different related note, since Dan mentioned Daniel Hudson.. I read an article yesterday where he praised the Blue Jays for really helping him thru his 1-yr deal, knowing TOR was probably going to trade him. I’m posting this article, because within it talks about the camaraderie among the Nats staff. The way each pitcher assumed WHAT EVER role assigned. I really think the Astros need to study how the Rays and Nats used Starters as Relievers, because the days of workhorses like JV and Cole are diminising. And we have a boatload of inexpensive pitching talent that isn’t being tapped.

        https://www.federalbaseball.com/2019/11/26/20977791/improbable-journey-daniel-hudson-leaves-him-etched-washington-nationals-lore-forever

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  11. Trade Ryan Pressly to the Cubs for Willson Contreras. It’s what they need and what we need. An AS catcher for an AS reliever. and we save a little money.
    Trade Michael Brantley to the White Sox for three pitching prospects. It’s what they need and what we need and we save a lot of money. We replace Brantley”s bat with Contreras’s bat in the lineup and Tucker’s bat in the lineup.
    Try to sign Hudson to replace Pressly and let all the young pitchers we already have and those we got for Marisnick and Brantley fight it out with Peacock for the rest of the bullpen.
    Find takers for Biagini and Devenski.
    Sign a #5 starter.
    We end up with what we need and we are under the luxury tax line and have room to add at the deadline.
    We have still have three lefty bats in the lineup with Yordan, Kyle and Reddick makes a real nice #9 hitter.

    Like

    • I like Steiver, or Hansen in the White Sox organization. I’d love to get my hands on Matthew Thompson (the Cy Ranch product). He cost them $2.1M, so you’d have to factor that into paying Brantley’s slary, too.

      Winston-Salem is the only affiliate I think Astros go head-to-head in the Carolina League, and not many Starting Pitchers who pitched a lot innings raised an eyebrow. Interesting, Peyton Battenfield’s brother pitches for them, Blake.

      Hey, a guy I like of theirs isn’t ranked but a catcher with a really good bat, Yermin Mercedes. He had 121 TB in 53 G, and slashed .310 .386 .647.

      http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t247&player_id=606213#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

      If you look at how Quintana did better in AAA, too, it’s not hard to surmise the baseball was juiced.

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      • Also, considering the moves the White Sox have already made, and the way they really played us tough down the stretch, do we really want to give them MB (as opposed to finding a different partner)?

        If I were their GM, I’d be looking pitching pitching pitching, aside from what everyone says they need — outfield. I think Luis Robert is going to be ROY, and an All-Star. You are right, if anything, they only need an one year deal.

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      • The White Sox are hungry for a good outfielder on a short term deal to give their fanbase some hope. They have payroll room and they have pitching prospects.
        I was hoping we could make a deal for Dunning, Hamilton and Hansen because of Dunning’s TJ Surgery and Hamilton’s injury. Dunning would help us replace Corbin.

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      • Depth chart beyond JV, and Greinke–

        Urquidy, Peacock, McCullers, Whitley (Super Two/June call up), Abreu, Valdez, James, Javier, Ivey, Bielak, Armenteros, Sneed, Emanuel, Martes, Conine, Garcia, Hansen, Dubin, Cionel Perez, Nivaldo Rodriguez, Yohan Ramirez (13.4 K/9).

        These have all been Starting Pitchers at one point. Several of these will not be roster’d in ’20, ONLY BECAUSE they won’t be R5 eligible immediately. Two cases in point were Javier and Paredes were added to 40-man, while Ivey and Bielak still have time.

        Relief Pitchers many never hear much from, but have potential in 2020–

        Enoli Paredes, Brandon Bailey, Ralph Garza, Nick Hernandez, Collin McKee, Blake Taylor (newly acquired), Jojanse Torres, Willie Collado. Jose Alberto Rivera is touching 99 mph.. and cost the Astros $10,000. Brilliant.

        Guys just around the corner in 2021–

        Jeremy Molero (led DSL in K’s), Solis, Felipe and Jairo Lopez, Battenfield, Brown, Hensley, Gayle, Jimenez, and prized, Vallente Bellozo.

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    • Kelly, and longtime international scouts Oz Campo, and Eve Rosenbaum. Dropping like flies — wonder if Espada lost his chance at SFG over the scandal? Joe Espada would be an even bigger loss, imo.

      Guduan got picked up by the Dodgers. Not many lefties can throw 100. Maybe they can straighten him out without Deetz making fun on him.

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      • Guduan will be throwing to my friend’s son in AAA, UH grad, Connor Wong. Although the Dodgers just acquired a kid for depth there.. I’ll get the skinny on whether he’s more impressive than Yohan Ramirez, who he thought was our best in AA.

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  12. It is difficult to believe the Rangers signed Jordan Lyles to two years at $8 million each. That is more than double his best earnings in his career. His career WAR is negative 1.6. He did have a decent year last year, but Milwaukee paid him $250,000 to go away.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Strasberg gets a quarter of a billion dollars or so, he’s 31 years old and has averaged about 165 innings a year over the past 8 seasons. There is a significant amount of risk involved with him. I’m sure the Nats got a policy from Lloyds or some other insurer, but I just don’t see the guy continuing to average 165 innings over the next 7 years. Boras might get 300 for Cole.

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    • As always with the Nationals, we should look at the details of the signing. It’s $245M over 7 years so he (briefly) has the highest reported annual salary … except that $80M of it is deferred money beginning in 2028. Also, the articles discussing it point out that his average four seemer velocity in 2019 was 93.9MPH. I didn’t see any mention of options or buyouts in the contract.

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  14. Baseball was only a bad choice after they got the money. Everything I believed about this kid and his parents and his agent turned out to be on target.
    Aiken disappeared and Alex Bregman showed up. There is some justice in the world.

    Liked by 1 person

    • You’d be surprised how much your desire to play baseball falls off when you suffer arm injuries that make it impossible to throw a ball without excruciating pain. You’d also be surprised how much fun it is to carry around side effects – like not being able to reach across your body to buckle your seatbelt without experiencing shooting pains. I’m disappointed we never got to see Aiken or Appel at their best. I don’t know either personally though and don’t want to pass too much judgement without walking in their particular Italian loafers. I’m happy to pass judgement on their greedy agents though.

      Like

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