Astros 2019: Who is and who is not clutch?

Friend of the blog Old Pro wrote about how the Astros are one of the best offensive teams around until …….there are people in scoring position, where they are very middle of the road. Which is unfortunate, since they have people in scoring position more often than any team around.

This made your humble writer wonder about who is and is not clutch on this team and this season in two situations – runners in scoring position (RISP) and 2 outs with RISP. The following mini-spreadsheet has the players ranked from best to worst in those situations. It is plain to see that while some of the players are Clutch Cargo, others appear to be clutching their throats in these key situations.

Name Situation ABs HRs RBIs BA OBP OPS
Michael Brantley

 

 RISP 108 4 54 .361 .433 1.053
2 outs RISP 48 2 24 .354 .446 1.051
Yordan Alvarez RISP 66 4 34 .348 .408 1.059
2 outs RISP 28 2 15 .357 .419 1.134
Yuli Gurriel RISP 125 9 48 .304 .363 .971
2 outs RISP 63 4 26 .280 .366 .906
Jose Altuve RISP 68 9 38 .279 .406 1.142
2 outs RISP 32 4 15 .313 .450 1.200
George Springer RISP 88 7 43 .307 .409 1.045
2 outs RISP 40 3 15 .225 .340 .890
Aledmys Diaz RISP 41 3 24 .317 .365 1.000
2 outs RISP 20 2 11 .300 .400 1.040
Carlos Correa RISP 81 5 36 .284 .386 .892
2 outs RISP 36 1 10 .222 .349 .682
Alex Bregman RISP 106 6 48 .216 .341 .782
2 outs RISP 41 4 23 .244 .404 1.014
Robinson Chirinos RISP 77 2 25 .182 .295 .619
2 outs RISP 36 1 10 .167 .302 .608
Jake Marisnick RISP 59 0 16 .237 .308 .664
2 outs RISP 33 0 7 .242 .286 .680
Josh Reddick RISP 85 1 25 .235 .291 .597
2 outs RISP 41 0 9 .171 .261 .456
Tyler White RISP 58 1 20 .207 .290 .583
2 outs RISP 23 0 4 .174 .269 .442

Observations…..

  • Eyes are not deceiving on the two best hitters in the lineup, especially in the clutch. Both Michael Brantley and wunderkind Yordan Alvarez are insanely good with RISP and are as good or better when it happens with two outs.
  • Alex Bregman is fairly effective despite his bad BA in both situations. Just imagine what those numbers would look like if he was hitting like last season (.388 BA/.488 OBP/ 1.219 OPS with RISP and .368/.446/1.201 with 2 outs RISP)
  • There is no wonder why Tyler White is gone.
  • There is also no wonder why folks are thinking Josh Reddick may head elsewhere in the off-season.
  • Carlos (Glass Menagerie) Correa is really solid with RISP, unless…..there are 2 outs. Then he is below average as is his buddy Mr. Springer.
  • Yuli, Jose and Aledmys are actually quite good with RISP. End of the lineup guys like Chirinos, Marisnick and Reddick show why they are end of the lineup guys.

So, how would you rank these guys and who do you want to see up or sitting in the dugout when the spotlight brightens?

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117 responses to “Astros 2019: Who is and who is not clutch?”

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  1. I’m surprised that Bregman is so much down your list from Brantley, Yuli and Yordan. Surely he will improve with runners on as we get into Septmber and October. It may be time for Marisnick to be full time instead of Reddick. I miss Straw not being here also.

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  2. Not to pile on, but Correa with the .682 OPS with 2 outs and RISP disappoints. Speaking of injuries, it would have been nice to have Diaz available all year. I think we’d have seen far more production out of him than Marwin typically provided, but Marwin was almost always ready to play. Bregman is a bit of a head scratcher, because we’ve seen the clutch version of #2. He’s been a force lately. Maybe he’s finally warming up for the big games.

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  3. I understand Larry – that particular ranking was the one I struggled with the most. My bottom line is that he is too good a hitter to have a .226 BA with runners in scoring position like he was a weak hitting catcher or back up infield.
    So it is a ranking based on disappointment. But I agree he can go on a roll and be one of their best hitters with RISP down the stretch. He needs to go back and look what he did to be a stone cold assassin in 2018.

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  4. Only five qualified AL batters have struck out less often than Alex Bregman this season, and three of them — Yulieski Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick — are his teammates.

    — The Athletic (@TheAthleticHOU) August 15, 2019

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  5. Your article is a fleeting “science,” Dan.
    Here is the FG article concluding
    “This year, the Mariners have been clutch, and the Dodgers have not. Both of those statements are true, and their own players are the ones responsible for the timing of their own performances. But as far as the last month is concerned, or as far as next season is concerned, it’s practically irrelevant. There’s no historical reason to believe it’s a trait. It’s all just a collection of things that have happened. Things at important times that have wound up deciding ballgames.”

    There’s a Clutch Grade, come up by this formula regarding leverage
    Clutch = (WPA / pLI) – WPA/LI

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-important-thing-about-clutch/

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    • I read the article. In fact twice. It reminds me of the story of the man who got his bachelors, masters, and doctorate. It was said he knew more and more about less and less, and finally knew all about nothing.

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    • Couldn’t get the ball over the plate. I suspect Hinch was thinking it wastime for him to tee up one for a Grand Slam, therefore the quick hook.

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      • I think Hinch is a bit testy right now for various reasons and I don’t blame him a bit.

        Everyone is different out there, but so far to me, Sanchez does not seem all that passionate about his job.

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  10. Thank you ,thank you Dan for this great post. I was just looking on Fangraph trying to figure how some of the guys are hitting with RISP and all I saw were a bunch of #’s & abbreviations which didn’t mean jack to me, lol.

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  11. So, I’ve been doing some soul searching and: – I’ve realized that I can’t compete with fan graphs since I moved out of my mom’s basement and started taking baths
    – I’ve realized most of the folks who read my posts are not expecting deep in depth stat nerd ness from Dan P – if they are expecting it they will be as disappointed as someone who is expecting clutch hitting from Josh Reddick
    – I’ve realized that if fangraphs shows that Tyler White is more clutch than Yordan Alvarez, then I need to ignore any normal stats that confirm reality and head into the Twilight Zone
    – I’ve realized that I do this for fun and that as long as most folks are having fun reading it – that I am happy

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  12. You keep on keeping on Dan. Your ranking were not based on personal feelings but on the numbers available. 1OP mentioned AB hitting with RISP on the previous post. The booth the past 2 days have posted that .429 BA the month of Aug, but not what he did with RISP (not what they paid to do & I’m not ragin on BA either). They also said Sunday I believe, that Chiniros was batting .308 the past few weeks. That’s not what I saw but, what the heck do I know.
    All in all this tm would not have won 80 gms if hitting was that terrible. Again thks for this post because I was curious about the subject & you nailed that puppy in the head for me. While these #’s will ascend & descend over the season, we’ve seen these guys dial it up come Oct.

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  13. Also if you do a post on who you DON’T want to bat with runner on first and none or one out – the winner would be Brantley or Altuve. Both are tied for 3rd with highest number of GDP in MLB with 16 each. (Abreu and Pujols have 18 and 17. )

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  15. 11 men left on base,THAT has to stop. They are just not playing their best baseball. I read an article on chron.com about McCullers talking about Greinke, guess how many different pitches Greinke has?…*8*! Don’t most pitchers have like 3-4 pitches? And why am I surprised?!!! I’d love to know how many wins Greinke has against the Astros. I remember when he pitched against us, it was nearly impossible to get a run. I realize they are tired….baseball is your job.
    Osuna will be down for a couple of days, he’s closed three days in a row.

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  16. This is the kind of win that I am able to overlook a ton of guys LOB. Anytime your lethargic starter goes 2.1 innings and leaves a mess behind and you get that win, it’s an okay night. So who gets sent down for a fresh arm?

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  18. With Correa and Sanchez headed to the IL and with Diaz on the IL they will likely be replaced by Myles Straw and whatever pitcher matches up best with Sanchez’s spit in the rotation – Urquidy? Armenteros? Or do they start stretching out Peacock or (less likely) McHugh? Sanchez’s shoulder could be a big deal

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  19. In 5 of the first six innings the Astros had runners in scoring position and failed. It was everyone except Brantley who couldn’t bring them in.
    It’s painful to watch.
    The thing that worries me about this is that Astros pitcher’s are having problems shutting down weaker teams and the Astros need those runners in scoring position to be brought home because the team’s ERA is rising and in October we won’t be playing weak teams.

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  20. The Astros were 2 for 11 with RISP and those two hits were Altuve’s oops roller down the 3B line and Brantley’s double.

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  21. The biggest problem with the failure to hit with runners on (same as the failure for bullpens to hold leads) is that it becomes contagious.
    You can’t measure it with stats but it is one of those psychological things where the players are choking a bit. They feel the pressure of the previous failures which makes their chance of subsequent success lower. Sometimes it just takes a big hit or two to get folks to relax. Sometimes it goes on and on.

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  22. Some comments on Reddick:

    Career 1st half: .274/ .338/.447 (.785 OPS)
    Career 2nd half: .248/ .301/ 407 (.709 OPS)

    2019 1st half: .289/ .328/ .433 (.761 OPS)
    2019 2nd half: .186/ .234/ .225 (.460 OPS)

    Postseason career: .219/ .280/ .297 (.577 OPS) – 155 AB, 16R, 6xBH, 10 RBI
    1017 Postseason: .169/ .229/ .185 (.413 OPS) – 65 AB, 7R, 1xBH, 2RBI

    2019: 0.3 WAR in 407 AB (for comparison Jake has 1.7 WAR in 233 AB)

    The biggest concern about Reddick has always been his lack of production when it matters the most (you can find numerous articles on the internet dealing with this issue). This years it looks like Josh is just following his career patterns of dropping off in the second half (albeit more pronounced in 2019). Based on career history we probably shouldn’t expect a lot out of him come playoff time.

    I think its time to give Jake more playing time and let Tucker show what he’s got come September roster expansion.

    As far as Josh’s defense, most advanced metrics rate him as below average. I don’t buy it. He’s not Jake, but going by the eye test, he looks like an above average outfielder with very good range, good instincts, a good glove and an above average arm.

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  23. One thing I notice is that when we come to the plate with RISP it seems that we’re trying to hit a home run instead of getting a base hit or a SF. I notice that other teams playing against us seem to try to just get the bat on the ball which results in a bloop hit, soft liner that drops in, or a dribbler for a base hit. We look like we’re always swinging for the fences. In other words our approach sucks. Just my opinion.

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    • One more thing, I don’t know what is worse, looking at a call strike three or swinging at pitches that are way out of the zone. Wasn’t it Berkman that said a couple of weeks ago that the guys were approaching the plate with the attitude that I’m going to swing at whatever is thrown up there and hope I drive it out.

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  24. Last night the Athletics started Homer Bailey and the Yankees starter German, who had a record of 16-2. It was no contest.
    Apparently the drums in RF had the Yankees totally psyched out. The noise from the stands made Brett Gardner’s dugout ceiling bat pounding irrelevant and the Yankees had nobody to lift their spirit. Yankees fall 6-2 and Oakland’s weirdness claims another victim.
    The real problem for NY is that when they get back home and play Oakland there, Gardner’s ceiling pounding might psyche them out up there.

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    • Oakland’s average attendance is around 19, 300 this season and the mighty NYY drew 21,471 last night. That’s not “pretty good”.

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  27. When Josh Reddick walked quietly to the plate in his final AB Tuesday night, he reminded me of a French general lugging a white flag.

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  28. From reading the article about YA, one thing I gleamed from the writer about the Astro’s offense was that it is ‘Efficient’. While it’s capable of explosion (we seldom see that aspect) it is efficient in winning games. When I look at this lineup 1-7 (8-9 capable of off burst) I’m like wow, these guys rock! I want them to KRUSH folks more often, they seldom do. They just quietly win.
    Mentioned I roll back to watch high scoring gms on At Bat. LAD, NYY, Col, Atl, Minn. Man, those tms put up points. Wish our guys would too more often.
    The one constant that comes to mind with me complaining how boring (stressful) efficiency is, is the fact that this tm has dispatched those high powered off (LAD, NYY) to win a WS, which neither of those two have done lately.

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  30. So, a 7-4 barnburner lead by the GCL Astros over the GCL Cardinals after only 2 innings might not ordinarily mean much.
    EXCEPT for the fact that in two innings the Astros have used three pitchers and their names are:
    Francis Martes
    Kit Scheetz
    Justin Ferrell
    All pitchers from the high minors on rehab.

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  31. The DSL Astros are playing in their 68th game today and they have 38 players on their roster. That is a lot of players to share only nine innings per day.
    But the DSL Astros have a guy on their team who is playing in his 65th game of their season and he is 17 years old, so they must think he is going to be pretty good. His name is Yohander Martinez. Memorize his features , as you might see him again:
    http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=682695#/career/R/hitting/2019/ALL

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  33. Speaking of our shortstop. A few games ago when CC was still playing, Blummer (I think) made the comment that all of his hit balls were pop ups to right field. That was where all of his hits were going before he went on the shelf last time. So maybe this was causing Carlos problems for several games.

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  34. The Astros are reportedly calling up Sneed and Straw to replace Sanchez and Correa.
    I’m betting that Marisnick will be in CF and Springer in RF tonight. Verlander is pitching.

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  35. And Yuli has done a yeoman’s job of putting this tm on his shoulders. Hope he rock’s that mojo from now throughout the playoffs. When GS & AB return to MVP form or close to it (I’m hopeful they will), next I would really love to see the offense ignite more often to give the pitching staff some much needed relief. Over reliance on this bunch has already taken a toll.
    Unless Josh finds a magic elixir, perhaps one of the call-ups might come in & remove his 2nd half swoons/ineffective bat.
    Noticed opposing tms are pitching around YA/Yuli & with softie doing another Cinderella tms have no fear of the bottom of the lineup who are usually auto outs.

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    • Probably not a popular decision but maybe dispersing a bottom of the order guy up a notch or two might do well for him and strengthen the bottom of the order. If our 7,8,9 guys are going to stink it up then we need to have that guy that can help turn the line up back to the top as we have done in the past. Or maybe they should just start hitting or bunting their way on base… or beat the shift.

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  37. Sometimes when I get down on the present team – I go back and do a “this day in Astros history”. Here is the box score from this day in 2013.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX201308210.shtml

    I’m not sure what is most striking here. A pitching trio of Erik Bedard, David Martinez and Chia – Jen Lo? Dallas Keuchel pinch running? Blast from the past names in LJ Hoes, Matt Dominguez and Brandon Barnes? Brett “Moon Pie” Wallace? Getting beat by a bunch of long gone folks – I think Andrus is the only current Ranger?
    Makes today look Hall of Fame in comparison.

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  38. Tonight is Josh Reddick’s bobble head night…..and his BIGGEST fan will be in the park tonight to watch him *Ric Flair* is at Minute Maid! Reddick came out of the dugout with his wrestling robe and belt on! I love that guy!
    Won’t see our man made of glass at short until sometime in September.

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  40. According to the booth Det lefty SP necessitated Brantley & Reddick sit out, because they, the lineup struggles against lefty pitching. This efficient, free swinging lineup has been hard to watch thus far.

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  41. This is ridiculous what in the heck is wrong with these guy?? DAM IT!!
    I’m sorry but this team RIGHT NOW sucks. JEEZE.😳

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  44. Trying to do too much and get your butt tagged out at 3rd to end the game.
    My head hurts. What a mess of a game this was. Sorry Justin…..your guys were stupid tonight.

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    • So do we need to check who Altuve and Chirinos bet on last night? lol
      I never see baseball as having such slam dunks betting wise. It’s just not the same as Alabama vs Georgia St in football.

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  48. I’m very pleased to have attended a splendid West Indian pig roast last night, great food and plenty of aged rum. I missed the entirety of last nights debacle. Too much dumb and inept stuff going on!

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    • Astroland does not seem to be a very happy place right now. There are some things going on that we don’t know about because we don’t have any real journalists reporting on our club.

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    • Maybe posts like this on Twitter might not sit well with anyone in Houston. Anthony Fenech is the reporter from Detroit Free Press banned from the post game interview.

      “The Tigers beat Justin Verlander again. They continue to win the trade.”

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  50. Abraham Toro being brought up – no announcement on moves but suspect that they will send down a young pitcher and will likely put Josh James on the 60 day or let a Rodgers or someone like that go

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