This is the kind of post that can blow up in one’s face. It is a big deal if the Astros do not complete a trade before the trade deadline and worthy of a quick discussion. However, by the time this discussion is posted or shortly after, Jeff Luhnow could complete 1, 2 or 10 trades and make this look foolish.
But let’s face it the man who wrote this….
…and this …..
….is not worried about looking any more foolish than he already has.
The key question here is, what happens if the trade deadline comes and goes and Jeff Luhnow and staff do not complete a significant trade for starting rotation and/or bullpen assistance?
Can’t happen you say? Hey, remember 2017 when the trade deadline came and went and the Astros had not picked up the big rotation piece that the fans and Dallas Keuchel (among others) thought they needed. Luckily that season there was a do-over with the waiver deadline a month later and it was lucky that Justin Verlander did not stop and take a restroom break in the late night discussions or the clock might have run out on the eventual trade and on the Astros World Championship chances.
What circumstances could lead to the Astros not making a big trade before the trade deadline?
- There is no do-over this time. The waiver deadline is as gone as Tyler White as an option for the Astros.
- The trade season seems to be compressing to a very few days. It feels like the sellers are waiting it out for the very last minute to make a decision and this could lead to buyers getting caught out in the cold if someone else raises the bid for their choice or choices at the last second. (Think e-bay auctions)
- Some teams that were thought to be sellers, like the Giants may sit this out since they are still quite alive in the Wild Card races. This means that if Madison Bumgarner is not available as a prime trade candidate there may be more people chasing Marcus Stroman or Matthew Boyd.
- Who the other teams want from the Astros and how they are valued could scuttle this. If the Astros draw a line in the sand on not trading Kyle Tucker and/or Forrest Whitley a major trade might not happen.
- Perhaps the Astros don’t see this as desperate a need as in 2017….
On that last point, remember that in 2017 the Astros only had one true ace and that was Dallas Keuchel. Charlie Morton had pitched well, but had no previous years you could fall back on for surety and missed a chunk of June injured. Keuchel missed most of June and July injured. Lance McCullers had pitched very well, but there were concerns about how many innings he should go lest he risk a major Tommy John injury (that occurred in 2018). Collin McHugh was injured most of the season and did not debut until very late July. Even with the problems at the end of the rotation this season, the Astros are very strong in the top three with Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley. They may see picking up a 4th strong starter as a good thing, but they do have two aces in their hand, and may believe they can easily get to the playoffs with what they have and then can have a four man rotation of the top three plus Peacock or Urquidy or some tandem version with McHugh thrown into it.
Bottom line, most fans believe the Astros absolutely should use some of their prospect gold to pick up another strong starter. Will this happen or will the Yankees, Twins and others outbid them for the top arms?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
104 responses to “Astros 2019: What if the big trade doesn’t happen?”
Great Topic! Fans will be annoyed if the Astros stand pat but that would be better than giving away the Farm System for small upgrades. I’m guessing that Luhnow will do something and may even surprise with an unexpected move. If they do nothing we’ll just root for the team that is already in place.
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In the pregame they showed how the Astros bullpen was the best around the first 50 games and has struggled the last 50 games (ERA over 4.50) during the time they have had to carry a bigger load with the back end of rotation troubles.
And apparently Pressly is pitching through knee soreness.
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I’m find the 5 RBIs from Correa tonight including the grand slam as rib tickling…
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Altuve has been his old self again and that bodes well for us
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Astros win. I hope Correa is ok
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A good game for the good guys.
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Great comebacker Dan. It would not surprise me if JL continues to be tight-fisted with his #1 &2 prospect currency. His interviews says otherwise.
First, all the boyz are back lineup wise. Them rockin hits & scoring runs gives the rotation some much needed relief in tight gms, or when blowing gms open. Second, postseason the SP can do short rest stints, esp if they make WS. Middling/inning eaters might bring some relief but only until the postseason.
In 2017 our rotation boast two bonafide aces in Verlander/Cole. DK & Morton were solid #2-3’s. In the WS the SP came in late to help close out gms. Our #4 closed out gm 7 to seal the WS.
Yes Dan JL can very well stand pat & still win it all. I think that a mistake
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Do you know about how that ball bounced off of Pressley’s leg and hurt him?
Well, think about something like that happening after the deadline to one of our top 3 starting pitchers. Now picture that happening after JL says he thinks we are ok and lets the deadline pass.
We need to make a deal. Anybody who thinks they are ok in this day and age with two rookies in their rotation is asking for trouble. We need another reliever,too.
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EXACTLY!! Plus…..has Correa ever heard of rubbing dirt on his elbow? If that kid goes on the IL again, I’d GIVE him to the Yankees.
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I’m a gambler so I’m taking bets on we will leave Cleveland with another DANG GOOD STARTER named Marcus Stroman!! The Dodgers were acting pretty interested in Stroman, but I think we will have him in tow by Thursday. Who WOULDN’T want to pitch along side Cole and Verlander?!!
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My personal opinion aligns with what others say above especially OP and the risk of losing someone. If they don’t make a trade there is no margin for error.
But it takes two to trade and it will be interesting if they can drag a partner across the line when that partner may choose another dance partner.
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Dan….You’re either in it to win it….or you’re not. Luhnow knows EXACTLY what he wants, and who to give up. He will make the trade. He just extended Verlander with the understanding this team would get back to the playoffs.
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I agree Dan. I think Luhnow will do everything possible to add an arm or two. My worry is the competition.
Too many teams needing pitching and not that many available. I don’t think we get the job done without giving up a couple of top tier prospects and maybe more.
Without a trade I don’t see a WS. We don’t even have a fifth starter at the moment. Can’t expect Verlander and Cole to be perfect every start. And limping along as we are doing now is taking a huge toll on the pen. Then, as you mentioned, there is also the possibility of an injury.
I have no idea what the other teams have to offer but you can bet the sellers are going for the best they can get.
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I loved re-reading the Altuve column. He isn’t a superstar in the making. He’s not the future at second base, DeShields is. If he improves his OBP he might become a serviceable second baseman. We’re all so funny!
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Oh but I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now.
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It is great to hear from old friends Mike Sand and Simon Davey!
Yes, some of our old thoughts are more scary han funny.
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Always reading …. just not often got much to say. Else it’s too late, being in the GMT+1 time zone.
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Comment any time – we will read it when we get up!
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The Trade Deadline is Wednesday, 3pm central time.
Teams are better at leaking rumors than they are at trading.
The Leaking Deadline is Tuesday, 3pm central time.
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Of all the position players who are still on this team, Alex Bregman has the lowest BABIP at .240.
This season Alex Bregman has been the unluckiest batter on the team.
Alex Bregman also leads the team in WAR.
Look out if Bregman’s luck starts to change.
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Bregman is not in the lineup today. He’s really pressing, a day off might be good for him.
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Good point OP – looking at fangraphs on Alex there is nothing that shows he should be hitting worse than 2017 and 2018.
– His soft hit percentage is basically identical to 2018 and lower than 2017. – His hard hit percentage is way up at 43.5% – 10% higher than 2017 and 8% higher than in 2018.
– His line drive percentage is slightly higher than both seasons
– He is hitting more fly balls than any time in his career
– He is hitting more infield fly balls than 2018, but less than in 2017
– His % of balls pulled is down to 45.7% – he is not being pull happy
– His K% is at 13.3 – a little higher than 2018 (12.1%) but lower than 2017 (15.5%)
– One fascinating fact – for his career his infield hit percentage (the percentage of ground balls that turn into hits) has been 5.6% and last year it was all the way up to 7.9%. This season it is a tiny 1.9% – which ties to luck and to maybe hitting ground balls too hard?
His career BABIP (batting average of balls in play) has been .289 which is a reasonable number and what it was last season, so he should be due for an adjustment from that .240….
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Yordan back in the lineup today – yaayy!!!
Stassi and Miley at the end of the lineup – Yikes!!
How much Dan P does not pay attention to the NL…. The Cards starter today is 10-4 with a 3.61 ERA. He is Dakota Hudson and before today I would have guessed Dakota Hudson was the female lead in a teen age sitcom on Disney Channel.
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And thus – What if the big deal does not happen
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/astros-reluctant-to-deal-kyle-tucker-for-noah-syndergaard.html
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The proven pitcher is more important to us than the outfield prospect.
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I agree – Tucker is a bit up and down – but the key thing is … will we look back at the end of this season and say what if?
Don’t want to blow a precious chance at the ring on someone who may never be
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Reading that old article….
Wonder what Pepper would say about Altuve now!
DeShields is one thing, but Fontana being a better prospect?
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I guess in all of our defense including Pepper – if Altuve had stayed that same player he would have been someone to be replaced. He did improve in areas we all pointed out like plate discipline and though he will never be a Michael Brantley when it comes to strike zone – he improved quite a bit and his game with it.
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One more time:
You’re either in it to win it….or you’re not. A deal will get done.
Good news….Astros will not face Bauer in Cleveland!
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Rogelio Armenteros of the RR Express squares off against Cole Hamels and the Iowa Cubs today.
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Springer dinger!!
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I always enjoyed Stevie Wonder as a recording artist but his second job as a ball-strike caller is not so good.
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Yordan golfs one!!!
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I want to know who that idiot was that was using my name and log in on those old posts. What a dummy.
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Or maybe DanP is a programming/coding genius. He completely made up those old posts….., and then made up the replies……. and changed the dates……, and added….., and deleted…….
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If I was such a genius I would have linked to that fake news post where I begged the Astros to trade Josh Field for Yordan Alvarez.
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That little guy with short legs who’s filling in until Delino is ready just hit a 3-run jack.
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ALTUUUUVE! 3 RUN SHOT! Astros 5-Cards *0*!
VERY quiet on MLB Traders about Marcus Stroman, which leads me to think there’s something going on.
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Makes me nervous turning it over to the pen so early.
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Please quit posting, Sandy.
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LOL!! You make me laugh astrocolt45 !!
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Pete Rose got 1,500th on 08-29-1970 against Carl Morton in his year 29 season also.
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Corrections, sorry I wrongly assigned Cole to the 2017 roster on last post, which was wrong, it was Lance, my bad. Read that ‘Reluctant to Trade Tucker’ post Dan along with comments. That got wild, lol. Seems like a 50/50 split on Tuck highlighting trade for Noah. Less noise on Stroman.
Noah has better comps , age, but what could Strumm do with either?
This blog I think desires nothing less than a #2-3 SP with a high leverage RP.
My concern is not with the lineup barring inj & that GS take less violent swings (back) & AB rids himself of that hitch/launch angle swing (MVP candidate when he does).
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There are currently 134 comments on the “Reluctant to Trade Tucker’ post
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It’s time… framing or not we need a new backup catcher.
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AAAAND…THAT’S THE BALLGAME!!
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Mets aquire Marcus Stroman.
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Sorry, Becky, about Stroman. At least he’s not a Yankee.
I have still thought the Astros would do a deal with the Tigers, but it was just a feeling based on what we need and who could meet our needs.
I still would like the Astros to trade for Vogt.
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I’m *NOT* happy.
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I’m not happy either. What in world are the Mets thinking?
Hope JL doesn’t mess around too long.
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Beat a good team 2 out of 3. I will take that any day of the week.
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The Astros had a lead in 23 of the 27 innings in the Cardinal’s series. The Cards had a lead in two innings.
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Looks like the Mets are in, the Giants are in, the Indians are in, which really cuts down on the starting pitching talent previously thought to be available at the trading deadline. Plus, as we have seen from the last 2 free agent classes, teams are getting much more value-conscious these days, and we know our GM is very much in that category. If we have to stand pat with the rotation, our top 3 is as good as any. In terms of WAR, we have 3 in the top 25 in all of baseball, the only other team with 3 is the Nationals. Injuries, sure, always a problem. The bullpen, well, they CAN be very good, but admittedly have not been lately. And remember, we won in 2017 when the pitching was good but the hitting was phenomenal. As long as everyone is healthy I think we have that same profile again this year.
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Trevor Bauer is one of those guys rumored to be available for a trade. He gave up 7 runs in 4-1/3 innings and when Francona came to take him out he threw the ball over the centerfield fence.
Unimpressive reaction but a heck of a throw.
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I saw that video and maybe the Astros should sign him when Reddick or Springer leave. Not sure if he can hit.
https://thebiglead.com/2019/07/28/video-trevor-bauer-throws-ball-over-centerfield-fence-in-fit-of-rage/
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kinda reminds you of ken giles…..
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Or maybe Jimmy Pearsall before he got his bi-polar meds regulated.
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The Cubs are shopping Maldonaldo would you give them anything for him?
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Stassi? Or a low prospect. Tough to forget though how Maldonado spit the bit in the playoffs last year.
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I’d be surprised if we made a trade for a SP right now. A reliever and a catcher seem be to more so within our grasp (and is needed). I don’t think JV, Cole, Miley is a bad starting three for the playoffs. I’m more worried about the relief corp at this point. What good does it do for a SP to go 6 or 7 innings and then the BP gives up 3 or 4 runs and we lose. I don’t have a lot of confidence at this point in the BP.
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I would go to war with those three any day.
But what if one or two of them went on the IL? Then what? And who do you use for a number five for for the rest of the season. These poor starts from the 4 and 5 spot is putting a tremendous strain on the pen now.
We need another starter and possibly another reliever.
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Here are my trade ideas:
1) Trade for an arm that can give some quality innings, either in starting rotation or long reliever. If they are fresh come playoff time, our top 3 SP and backend bullpen arms can win a series against anyone.
2) A catcher that can eat up enough innings over the rest of the season to ensure Chirinos has fresh legs to hit off of come playoffs and can provide late inning defense and control running game in playoffs if needed.
3) Trade fly balls and ground balls for line drives. This from fangraphs:
– A line drive produces the highest BABIP – LD = .685, GB = .239, FB = .2017
– “A line drive produces 1.26 runs per out, while fly balls produce 0.13 runs per out and ground balls produce 0.05 runs per out.”
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Unfortunately for Alex Bregman, even though he has the highest line drive numbers of his career – he has the lowest BABIP in his career. In general line drives give you better BABIP but he’s hitting in buzzard’s luck this year
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Interesting stats:
-At the 2/3’s mark of the season there are 56 qualified players with 20 home runs or more, but only 19 players hitting .300 or better.
-Christian Yellich is having the best offensive season in baseball this year, followed by Mike Trout.
– Domingo Santana leads the majors in Ks with 135.
-Robinson Chirinos is the highest ranked Astro with 90 strikeouts. That puts him in 58th place.
– Ranger batters lead the majors in striking out and the Astros are 29th.
– Dodger batters strike out the least and walk the most.
-Astros pitchers lead the majors in strikeouts and are 5th best at not issuing walks
– The Astros are one of only five teams with a team ERA under 4.00 and there are also five teams with team ERA over 5.00.
-There is only 1 Pacific Coast League team with a team ERA under 4.00, but there are 4 with a team ERA over 6.00 and one of them is over 7.00.
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An infielder from the Quad Cities River Bandits, Austin Dennis was playing RF for Round Rock on Sunday in place of Kyle Tucker.
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I see that rumors are floating that the Orioles are willing to trade Villar. I bet Becky is holding her breath that Luhnow does not trade Correa and Altuve even up for that great ballplayer. Maybe throw in Cole.
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And the rumor is started by a TV guy for the Orioles and then picked up by MLBTR. And the rumor is about “talks” with the Cubs that are dead.
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Luhnow must not have been overly impressed with Stroman. He could have gotten the deal done. Jays did not get a whole lot from the Mets for him. He’s not a strike out guy and the 1.227 WHIP is unremarkable. I don’t think he’s an upgrade over Miley.
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Tyler White pinch hit for the Dodgers Sunday in his first appearance for the Dodgers. After the first two batters walked in the ninth inning of a loss to the Nats, Tyler batted and popped out to SS on a fastball right down the pipe.
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Well at least he didn’t strike out on a pitch low and away.
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I want to check back after he spends so time with the Dodgers trainers and pitching coach.
I still believe in the kid.
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I have not had the time to look over the Dodger roster recently. I also have not kept track of their injury story for the year. They’ve got to be good, as they do have the best record in baseball. We’re just a few percentage points away from them though. And we all know that there simply was no place on the Astro roster for Nephew. I think that makes us a deeper team, at least offensively and maybe speed wise and defensively too.
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Finally! The Astros won the last game of every series in July. The series against the Indians ends in August.
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A PCL record! 11 HRs in one game by one team. It lasted only 9 innings.
https://www.milb.com/gameday/aviators-vs-chihuahuas/2019/07/26/579466#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=579466
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The only guy who didn’t get a hit was the DH. 5 batters averaging above .300 and nobody less than .273 (the DH). it must be awfully lonely at the DH spot.
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Marisnick lost his appeal and will sit Tuesday and Wednesday. The Astros will play with a man down. From what I hear Marcus Stroman thought the Blue Jays would trade him to a contender, like the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox. He was not happy with this trade.
I hate the suspense of waiting until 3:00 Wednesday to find out who we traded for! Reminds me of when I was a little girl having to wait until Christmas Day to see what Santa brought me!!
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So, Becky – Jonathan Villar would be the lump of coal??
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Dan….villerror isn’t even worth a piece of coal. I pity any team that trade for him. He is a total waste of good air.😠
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I was reading that Stroman was elated to go to Mets since he’s from NY but that may be premature hype. Or he’s just putting on a good face for a bad situation.
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I’m speculating JL goes after a decent middling/innings eater to slot in at #4, use young guns, roster fill ins at #5. Maybe pick up a decent BP arm as a stretch man. Why bring in Maldonado, who doesn’t hit when we already have that in Stassi?
Thor is out after hearing Stros balked at Tuck being the headliner. I’d be knocked to my knees if they make that trade, as would we all.
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Dan, I’ve ignored your question. What if the big trade doesn’t happen?
Well, then there will probably be a little trade. And then there is Perez and Abreu and Rogelio and Deetz and anyone else that the front office thinks can help us win the division, the pennant, and the World series.
That’s the only answer I can come up with. You go with what you got.
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