2019 Baseball Predictions


Yes, the season has already begun, but if you make your 2019 predictions based on the first series of the season you may be sad puppies at the end of the year. So even a little late, the blog will throw out some categories with predictions with the proviso that if you are smart you will not use them for betting purposes, though you could put them aside for ridicule. Oh, and you are welcome to take your shot at these predictions yourself.

AL playoff teams – Division winners – Astros, Twins, Yanks – Wild Cards – Indians, Red Sox

It will be interesting, which team upsets the apple cart here and passes someone for a WC spot. The Indians have pitching, but the Twins may have a better overall team.

AL Playoff results – WC – Red Sox over Indians, ALDS – Astros over Twins, Yanks Over Red Sox, ALCS – Astros over Yanks

These will again be very intriguing playoffs as the Red Sox, Yanks and Astros should be the cream of the crop.

NL Playoff teams – Division winners – Phillies, Cards, Dodgers – Wild Cards – Nats, Brewers

The Phillies have done quite a bit in the off-season to pick things up. Could the Rockies or even the Padres slide in here?

NL Playoff results – WC – Brewers over Nats, ALDS – Dodgers over Phils, Brewers over Cards, ALCS – Brewers over Dodgers

The feeling here is that the Brewers will make in-season moves to solidify them heading into the playoffs and then head back to the WS.

World Series – Astros over Brewers (Yes, we are homers here at Chipalatta)

David Stearns’ team against his old boss’ team…..this could be a fun WS.

AL Cy Young – Justin Verlander – JV developing a change up at this age, when he is already a top end pitcher made me think of a line from Happy Gilmore, where the guy who already can drive the ball 400 yards suddenly has a short game “Happy learned how to putt, Uh Oh.” Next Verlander will use the anti-wood solution on the ball that Ray Milland used in “It Happens Every Spring”.

AL MVP – Really going out on the limb here and picking Mike Trout. I think he will be healthy and when he is healthy no one is above him.

NL Cy Young – Max Scherzer solidifies his legacy with his fourth Cy Young

NL MVP – No, not Mr. $300 million plus, we will go with….Paul Goldschmidt

Astro Predictions

Most Improved – Carlos Correa – He will come back on Sunday and he will play like he did in Spring Training. He may miss time along the way but if he can be the 2017 Correa we won’t care.

MVP – Verlander – Not normal to put a pitcher in this spot, but his leadership of the staff will be as important as his performance this season.

Best Everyday – Jose Altuve – Jose will grab the crown back from Alex Bregman who may press a little to earn his new contract.

Best Reliever – Roberto Osuna will edge out  Ryan Pressly for this spot.

Most Disappointing – Collin McHugh – Hope I’m wrong on this, but I feel that he will struggle heading back to the rotation.

Top Rookie – When Forrest Whitley appears (and he will be needed some time) he will give the team a shot in the arm.

Most likely to be traded away – Josh Reddick – if he plays decent, but so does Jake Marisnick, they may try to package Reddick and what’s left of his money and promote Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez

Steady Eddie Award – Michael Brantley – he will be strong but not spectacular across the board – 2nd or 3rd in many categories.

Leaders in Categories

Wins – Verlander – 20

ERA – Verlader – 2.35

Saves – Osuna – 32

BA – Altuve – .338

Runs – Altuve – 118

HRs – George Springer – 37

RBIs – Correa – 105

OK, now it is your turn – who, what, where, when are you predicting to happen this season. Make up your own categories and tear these down, whatever you folks feel like today.

 

 

57 comments on “2019 Baseball Predictions

  1. I like the WS picks. Please, no Dodgers again. Astros over Brewers would be so sweet: take that Bud Selig!
    I would pick Cole to take over leadership on the mound. Verlander has got to show signs of age sometime. Right? I remember saying that about Nolan…
    But if JV and GC are 1a and 1b, I don’t care who wins the awards.
    If the hitters put up the kind of results you predict Dan we’ll be in good shape.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I wish they would use one lineup at least for the first couple of weeks. I realize Hinch wants to keep everyone sharp but let them get their feet under them first. Just a few weeks.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. For those of you that miss Chipalatta being over at Spit.com: “Well the season might as well be over. They will never recover. Why does the front office never try to improve the team? Why do they think they can will with only 1 run? Tampa Bay knows how to play REAL baseball.”

    I feel better already.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. I keep laughing, and reminding myself:
    1. Before the season is over, we win find a way to win 100 games.
    2. Surely a team this talented is eventually going to average more than 2.33 runs a game.
    3. Surely we will, at some point in the season, actually score runs some way other than hitting random, few and far between, home runs.
    4. Surely the shortstop position will not be a Diazed-and-Confused black hole, both offensively and defensively, much longer.
    5. Surely Hinch will, at some point, at least until Myles Straw arrives on the scene, order a stop to virtually all SB attempts, because he will realize that absolutely no one presently on this team is proficient at base-running in general, much less at the fine art of base-stealing at the major league level.
    6. Everybody probably just slacked off because they wanted to see Charlie Morton do well in his first start with his new team – then didn’t realize that he wasn’t pitching the next night.
    7. Today is a new day. Surely we will not blow a third game in a row to an inferior team.

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    • I’ll take the under. 92ish win team, but should still win the west. I just don’t see Miley and Diaz being a good replacement for Keuchel and Gonzalez. I see too many at bats for Marisnick and Stassi and the aforementioned Diaz. I am skeptical that Correa will ever be what he teased.

      No doubt, no concern from this first series, Bregman, Brantley and Altuve will wake up. Gurriel will hit. White will get it going. Probably run off a good winning streak, or a great month or two. I just don’t see 100 wins.

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  5. We apparently have an offense after all. It’s a seldom seen, mostly hibernation-prone, species. It goes by the name of ‘Jake’.

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    • Pssssst. Astro players, please listen carefully. I am on your side. I mean you no harm. I am just trying to help you. Here is my advice: Do … not … under … any … circumstances … try to steal a base … EVER again. You won’t make it. It probably won’t even be close. You … are … ALL … just really, really, really bad at base running. Horrible, actually. Embarrassingly bad, to be frank. You have been terrible at base running for a long time – and staying in denial is just making it worse.

      Liked by 2 people

  6. To add to Sandy’s comment, I agree. Let’s play the guys who are at their designated position especially since Correa has returned. Late inning replacements or pinch hitting is the exception but we need some consistency out there. Giving a guy a day off but let’s put him in the DH spot, I don’t care for. Just my 2 cents worth.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Our guys just hate playing in this place. No excuse. Just reality. But our pitchers, well maybe except for Devenski, are pitching and our hitters will hit. And Diaz will not be playing a whole lot of short. So we’re good. Maybe we’ll even win late today and get the split. And I’ve arrived in frosty Houston (well by my standards anyway) in advance of Openning Day. Things could be worse.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Hold’em up folks, just turned on gm and looked at box score, like all of you dismayed by so many goose eggs hitting. Cripes JSFS has two of our three hits. Its early but was hoping for a torrid beginning offensively. That breakout gm is coming where the sticks explode to life

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    • No questions Mrs. Bearden. Steven, I’m not sold on Miley, but I’m not not sold on Miley either. If the throws that game on a regular basis, we’ll win most of his starts. Now I’m not sure he can do that based on last years 80 innings alone though, but there will be other guys who can start games too, if/when he fails.

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      • Maybe, I just think he never does much to change the angle. I had never seen him pitch before he was signed, now that I’ve seen it, I’m not impressed. His slider doesn’t have any downwards bite, its the same one I threw and you never heard of me for a reason. it would be OK if he threw 93+ and just used it to keep hitters off, but thats not the case. I can see why he has had struggles.

        Certainly though what he is doing is good enough to keep his ERA around 4 and win more than he loses, but that’s not adequate to replace the contributions of McCullers or Keuchel. I know the Astros didn’t plan on that, they are hoping McHugh and Peacock help that burden, and I suspect they will some, I am just disappointed that we signed the guy and Dallas still sits at home.

        Tough spot though – because no way if I am GM I give Keuchel 5-6 years either.

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      • Heck I have to apologize to ol’ salty too for forgetting him, our staff has big holes in it compared to last year, and our offense will probably be more similar to last years than 2017 version.

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      • I was semi hoping the Astros and Keuchel would agree late on a one or two year deal with a mutual option. But it seems the Keuchel camp has dug in. Is it about pride swallowing at this point? Heck, zero clubs have managed a deal with the guy.

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      • Isn’t there a rule where we cannot sign Keuchel until after a certain point in the season since we made the QO, he declined, and then he did not sign with us prior to the start of the season? Maybe I’m making that up or it has been altered, but I recall something like that being in play a few years back.

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  9. My takes on series 1 – take with a grain of salt because I only saw games 2 and 4.

    Wade Miley and Almedys Diaz are not Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez.

    Miley looked exactly like the 5ish ERA pitcher he has been 2 of the last 3 years – and some stats suggest last year he was the same one that just got away with it. His pitches seemed to have good movement but every slider he threw looked the exact same. He doesn’t seem to have an outpitch to rely on in spots, and even glass windows look safe around him. He definitely doesn’t locate like Keuchel.

    They were lost at the plate. Chirinos made them look silly with those low splitters. Correa and Altuve both.

    It’s going to be a long year if Marisnick is going to get as many games and at bats as Brantley. Brantley’s career batting average against lefties is better than most guys career batting averages, no need to play matchup jesus with him, put him out there 150 games.

    Why was Altuve bunting in that spot? Two outs, ninth inning, he represents the tying run, I have to assume that was Altuve trying to make something happen and not the manager, or the manager made a poor decision.

    Josh James looked solid. Sometimes I wonder about his location, if he intended for that pitch to go where it went, which is why I think the BP is the best spot for him, the mistakes will be hit a lot more through the order multiple times.

    Looking forward to Peacock. I think there is a chance he is the sleeper choice for 2nd or 3rd best starter on the staff by the end of the year, if he can hold up health wise.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Steven…exactly. There is only one Marwin, and trading for Diaz may just slap us in the face. Something all of us have to make peace with. Three in Arlington are going to be EXTREMELY important.

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  11. Thank goodness we are having cool weather, the guys won’t be wilting like they do in July and August! I’m a little disappointed, but they have only played 4 games, so I need to chill. All three of the games will be on television this week, 7:00 start times.

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  12. Let’s think about this for a minute. 1. Zunino throws out 67% of base runners and Perez 100% this season. So we make Zunino look twice as good as his normal stats. 2. We traded for the Blue Jays starting SS by giving them a minor leaguer. Thornton looks like the major leaguer so far. 3. And why did our catcher, pitch against us today? Baseball is strange.

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  13. Things we learned from the Series with the Rays:

    1. No one is going to roll over and give us a series – or for that matter, anything.
    2. We are capable of being the worst team on the field against any opponent, any night.
    3. Bregman is still a slow starter.
    4. Diaz has not handled the transition to his new team well yet.
    5. A healthy Correa – who hits the ball hard and in gaps – is still absolutely critical to this team.
    6. We cannot count win by just hitting occasional dingers, getting hardly anyone on first, second, or third, and getting most of those guys thrown out on the bases.
    7. Our starting pitching is average at best after Verlander and Cole – and not even those can be counted on to completely shut down and shut-out an opponent -so WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO SCORE RUNS.
    8. Devenski is still not fixed – and is going to cause us some big trouble if we rely on him in critical situations.
    9. When you sit your best hitter (Brantley) most of a game you need to walk away from a series with a tie, and then let your slowest runner (White) run for himself after he lucks into a single in the 8th inning, though you have a speedster on the bench, available to pinch run), you are not utilizing your roster effectively.
    10. When your ‘big 4’ all go 0-the same game, your chances of winning are pretty slim.
    11. When Jake Marisnick is your strongest offensive weapon, you probably aren’t going to fare very well.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. A couple thoughts here on A.J. ….
    – All managers look a lot better in the light of wins than losses
    – All managers look better when the decisions they make turn out for the good rather than the bad
    – We don’t know what we don’t know here – we don’t know if a veteran wakes up and has a sore back or neck or is under the weather.
    – The team has enough really good players to be fine when sitting someone – but when no one is carrying the load the decision to sit someone is magnified
    – I’m going to guess that over the course of the season, Hinch’s decisions will be right more often than not, but I understand that he will get scrutinized closely after the losses

    Liked by 1 person

    • All true Dan. I understand April is different than October, but he managed the WS extremely well by just putting his best players out there and letting them play. Being health cautious is good but if you don’t win in April you may not make it till October.

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      • In the World Series the team batted .230 BA / .297 OBP/ .765 OPS. After 4 games this year the team is batting .255 BA/.329 OBP / .754 OPS
        In small samples you just can’t make too many judgments in my opinion.

        Liked by 2 people

      • Just a little side note. In the WS, we also averaged over 4 runs per game with those BA/OBP/OPS numbers. If we had done that, we would be 4- o right now.

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  15. It’s only one game, but Trent Thornton threw 5 scoreless in his first career start for the Blue Jays with 2 hits, 0 BB, and 8 K. I’m sure the trade had more to do with our crowded bullpen, our 40 man space, Trent becoming Rule V eligible, and Luhnow not wanting to pay Marwin’s asking price…but that’s looking like a regret for me after actually seeing Diaz play.

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    • I agree. I’m sorry but I see no silver lining in the Diaz cloud. Could we have signed him for 2/21MM or did we think that was too much to pay and we had somebody waiting in the wings. We need a lit fuse to ignite the offense.

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  16. I’m not all that concerned at this point. We had a number of very well hit balls go for outs and the caught stealings were all reasonably close plays. I’m not sure that Diaz offers us a lot that we can’t work around with other solutions. With Brantley in LF we don’t need Marwin to get ABs at that position, especially with Marisnick and Kemp on the roster. Bregman is the best SS alternative we have, Yuli/White can spell Bregman at 3B and each other at 1B. To me it’s telling that we got Diaz for a prospect in spite of him having three years in MLB. If he has options it would seem that if he struggles in a part time role here then send him to Round Rock. Why not give Nick Tanielu a shot at that spot? He would have to be added to the 40 man but we sit at 38 on the roster now and McCullers and/or Smith could be moved to the 60 day DL if we needed a spot. Another potential call up would be Stubbs. I think we need help at catcher a lot more than we do in either the outfield or infield. (Bad enough to carry three catchers?) Stubbs throws better than Chirinos and will probably hit better than Stassi. Of course it would probably be better for him to be playing every day at Round Rock than getting a start a week and occasional PH opportunities. And how would our veteran pitching staff meld with a rookie catcher? All that rambling to say that I just don’t see much need for Diaz and wonder who else might give some value to the roster.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. I don’t think that Aledmys Diaz can possibly be as horrible as he has looked thus far -through ST and in the first 4 games of the season. So far has looked like an infield version of Carlos Gomez. He has to be better than that, doesn’t he? Will we perhaps see a glimmer of hope sometime soon?

    In Luhnow I believe – but please, help thou my unbelief!

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  18. OK – last season here are two players
    Player A – 489 ABs / .247 BA / .324 OBP / .733 OPS / 61 R / 16 HRs / 68 RBIs
    Player B – 422 ABs / .263 BA / .303 OBP / .756 OPS / 55 R / 18 HRs / 55 RBIs

    Not much to choose between the two
    Player A was Marwin – Player B was Diaz

    I agree that after picking up Brantley they really did not think they would have enough ABs to justify Marwin’s new salary, so they went for a cheaper bench guy who they knew would not have as good a glove, but who might be better eventually at the bat.

    I don’t think Diaz will continue to have 0 hits, just like I don’t think Marwin will continue to have one hit and Bregman will continue to have one hit.

    (I am also sure that the Twins are not thrilled after watching Marwin bat .114 in Spring training and one hit in the first few games of the season)
    Folks – have to let things breathe – baseball is a marathon and at any one time there will be players in slumps. It looks worse at the beginning of the season than an 0 for would look like after 200 ABs. Can’t change players out based on bad weeks. If he still sucks after 6-8 weeks then you start looking at it.

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    • Nick had a fantastic spring, but his lifetime minor league OPS is .763. Let’s give him some more time at AAA to see what he does with the bat. The other issue with him is that he’s played no shortstop while in the minors. Where would we use him?

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  19. Hey, we’re tied with the Red Sox. If it stays that way all year we’ll be happy. As to Diaz, Marwin was a key guy because of his LF time. Diaz doesn’t have have to be more than a bench guy. If Correa had started the first 3 games we would not have seen nearly as much of Diaz so far.

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  20. I’m sitting here just now reading the print version of the Sunday Chronicle. Did MLB really give a “championship belt” out to the club that best suppressed arbitration salaries? If so, Manfred really is a foolish ass. He’s not just a threat to the integrity of the game being played on the field, but to the integrity of MLB too.

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