Head to head playoffs: Astros versus Indians

The ALDS matchup that will be getting national attention is the Red Sox – Yankees media darling series, where the East Coast bias wishes they could meet again in the ALCS and the World Series. But there is another ALDS matchup occurring outside prime time that is likely a closer match than the two team’s records (Astros 103-59 / Indians 91-71) would indicate.

The Astros’ fans were not looking forward to playing Cleveland in the 2017 playoffs after being dominated 1-5 by the Tribe during the season and thanks to the Yankees that matchup never occurred. This season, the Astros took 2 of 3 at home with Cleveland and then split 4 on the road.

In 2018, the Indians got off to a slow start and were 25-25 after the first 50 games, they then went 66-46 the rest of the way and coasted to the AL Central title by 13 games. The Astros played much better than the Indians early (they were 32-18 after 50 games), but due to great play by the Mariners early and the A’s late they never had a comfortable lead the whole season. Their 6 game lead at the end of the season was the biggest they ever held.

So how do these two teams matchup heading into their playoff matchup?

Starting Pitching

If the teams had to use a five-man rotation, the Astros would get the nod here, but with a more likely 4 or perhaps for the Indians 3 man rotation, this area is really close. The Indians top three are Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA), Carlos Carrasco (17-10, 3.38 ERA) and Mike Clevinger (13-8, 3.02 ERA), while the Astros boast Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA), Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88 ERA) and Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA). The fourth starter is where it gets interesting. Due to injury, Trevor Bauer (12-6, 2.71 ERA) has not pitched more than 4 innings in a game since Aug. 11. Similarly, Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA) has pitched only 4 innings total since Sept. 15. The series could be decided on this spot.

SP’s – Toss Up

Relievers

This was an area that hurt the Indians in the early going and so they traded one of the top catching prospects in the game Francisco Mejia to the Padres for All Star closer Brad Hand (8 saves, 2.28 ERA since coming over) and reliever Adam Cimber (0-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.650 WHIP, but on the playoff roster). Behind Hand they have former Astro killers, Cody Allen (4-6, 4.70, 22 saves), whose struggles led to the trade and Andrew Miller (2-4, 4.24 ERA, 2 saves) who missed June and July with injuries. Former Astro Oliver Perez has been murder on both righties and lefties this season (1-1, 1.39 ERA, 0.742 WHIP). Dan Otero (2-1, 5.22 ERA) like Cimber is a weak spot for the Indians out of the ‘pen.

The Astros have been so strong that they have left off pitchers who would easily slide into the  Indians bullpen. New closer Roberto Osuna (2-2, 1.99 ERA, 12 saves), shutdown set-up man Ryan Pressly (1-0, 0.77 ERA, 0.600 WHIP), Collin McHugh (6-2, 1.99 ERA, 0.912 WHIP) and Tony Sipp (3-1, 1.86 ERA) have been very good in 2018, though McHugh slid down the stretch. Lance McCullers Jr. (10-6, 3.86 ERA) comes back from injury to give them a multi-inning option, Will Harris (5-3, 3.49 ERA) slides into the bullpen based on strong numbers down the stretch and Josh James (2-0, 2.35 ERA, 0.957 WHIP) gives them 100 mph X-factor as needed. Again, it is hard to see the Indians being able to leave off their roster, Hector Rondon, Brad Peacock, Joe Smith and Framber Valdez.

RP’s – Advantage Astros

Infield and Catcher 

After 2017’s great season, it is hard to believe that the Astros team would face a team with a better infield, but with great performances on the Indians side and injury-plagued and performance plagued seasons by Jose Altuve (.316 BA, 13 HR, 61 RBI) and Carlos Correa (.239 BA, 15 HR and 65 RBI) it is so.  Yuli Gurriel (.291 BA, 33 doubles, 85 RBIs) is a bit better than Yonder Alonso (.250 BA, 23 HRs, 83 RBIs). Altuve is not as good as new 2B (formerly at 3B) Jose Ramirez (110 runs, 39 HR, 105 RBIs) and Correa is not near Francisco Lindor (129 runs, 38 HR, 92 RBIs). Yan Gomes (.266 BA/.313/.762) is a better hitter at catcher than Martin Maldonado (.231/.257/.655), though Maldonado has been gunning runners down at a huge rate compared to Gomes.  The X-Factor here is newly acquired 3B Josh Donaldson, picked up at the waiver deadline in a controversial move (the Astros protested that he was not healthy when traded having played in one rehab game and immediately going back on the DL). Alex Bregman (105 runs, 51 doubles, 31 HRs, 103 RBIs) is not better than the Donaldson of 2014-2017, but he may be better than the current one, who had been injured most of the year. This is a key battle and the series may be greatly affected by the performance of these two players.

Infield/Catcher – Advantage Indians

Outfield and DH

The Astros assumed starting outfield would be Marwin Gonzalez (.247 BA/.733 OPS/ 16 HRs/68 RBIs), George Springer (.265 BA/.780 OPS/ 102 runs/22 HRs/ 71 RBIs) and Josh Reddick (.247 BA/.718 OPS/17 HRs/47 RBIs) against the Indians’ Michael Brantley (.257 BA/ .832 OPS/ 17 HR/ 76 RBIs), Jason Kipnis (.230 BA/ .704 OPS/ 18 HR/ 75 RBIs) and Melky Cabrera (.280 BA / .755 OPS/ 6 HRs/ 39 RBIs). Hitting-wise there might be a small plus on the Indian’s side. Fielding-wise the Astros are miles ahead. The DH battle will be interesting as Edwin Encarnacion (.246 BA/ .810 OPS/ 32 HR/ 107 RBIs) has tons more experience, but Tyler White has much better numbers (.276 BA/ .888 OPS/ 12 HRs/ 42 RBIs) in a smaller 2018 sample.

OF and DH – Toss Up

Bench

The Astros bench consists of Brian McCann (.212 BA/ .640 OPS/ 7 HR/ 23 RBIs), Evan Gattis (.226 BA/ .736 OPS/ 25 HR/ 78 RBIs), Jake Marisnick (.211 BA/ .674 OPS/ 10 HRs/ 28 RBIs), Tony Kemp (.263 BA/ .743 OPS/ 6 HRs/ 30 RBIs/ 9 SB) and Myles Straw (In 9 games – .333 BA/ 1.067 OPS/ 4 runs/ 1 HR/ 1 RBI/ 2 SBs). The Indians bench consists of C Roberto Perez (.168 BA/ .519 OPS/ 2 HRs/ 19 RBIs), OF Rajai Davis (.224 BA/ .559 OPS/ 1 HR/ 6 RBIs/ 21 SBs), OF Greg Allen (.252 BA/ .654 OPS/ 2 HR/ 20 RBIs/ 21 SBs), OF Brandon Guyer (.206 BA/ .671 OPS/ 7 HR/ 27 RBIs) and IF Yandy Diaz (.312 BA/ .797 OPS/ 1 HR/ 15 RBIs).

The Astros would seem to have an advantage at backup catcher and with Gattis’ power off the bench. Both teams have speed off their benches and it would seem that if the teams have to substitute on the infield they may look to their outfield (Marwin Gonzalez, Jason Kipnis) before their bench.

Bench – Advantage Astros

In the end this looks like a very tight series with the Astros getting a slight nod. I’m not an Astros’ homer (Pinocchio’s nose growing by the minute). This will be a huge test for the Astros and their experience in the playoffs last year may prove to be the difference.

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86 responses to “Head to head playoffs: Astros versus Indians”

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  2. I’m glad that the Stros are carrying James as a reliever. I think that he’s really special and the team and him will benit from his presence. Lookout next year for James (I hope). I also like the speed of Straw. He seems to have a little bulldog in him. Go Houston.

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  4. Didn’t sleep well last night….these guys have been here before. I’ll check back later during the game! GO ‘STROS!!!

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  12. Do you think maybe JV heard them talking about his 8+ ERA against the Indians last year? He’s pitching with a purpose.

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  14. Verlander ain’t coming outta this game, I don’t care if he’s got 200 pitches!
    AND….A.J. Hinch knows it!! WOW….so far this is just what the doctor ordered!!

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  17. Becky, I thought it was time to take him out and really expected AJ to discuss the situation, kinda glad he used the hook though

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  19. Well folks, my dream WS of Astros/Cubs dead now that Cubbies refuse to hit. Hope to see Astros/Brewers or Atlanta. Tired of Dodgers

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  20. That 1st pitch spike by Presley hurt. Cost us 2 runs. Glad he got it back next control. When JV started throwing high and outside after the hit I thought he should have been taken out. His Adrenalin was kaput. It’s tough to go 90 pitches on these games and not lose a little something. He was great until then though

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  27. That is one. Well done, team. Hello play-off offense; hello, play-off defense; hello play-off pitching!

    Now . . . let’s go back, jack, do it again!

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  28. Some thoughts on today’s game:
    -Our ace beat their ace and their ace threw a lot of pitches in less than five innings.
    -The crowd was rather docile. It was a work day and nobody had a chance to get wound up. They will be crankin’ it up tomorrow.
    – The Indians got three hits and scored on a WP and a groundout.
    -Maldanado’s home run was a dagger. The Indians had snuck back in it.
    -Cody Allen did not look confident on the mound.
    -Correa was 0-4 today, but I saw him get out in front of three fastballs and pull them. It was the first fastballs I have seen him pull in a month.
    -Hinch was taking no chances. He used his closer with a five run lead. Let tomorrow take care of tomorrow.
    -LMJ fooled ’em with fastballs. They were looking for something else.
    – The bottom 3 of the Astros lineup had 5 hits and 3 RBIs. The Astros looked like the 2017 Astros with 12 hits and only 3 Ks.
    – Reddick stepped up.

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  29. This was the game I was worried about. Kluber had owned the Astros, the Indians had owned JV and we were playing a home game after rest.

    What a great job by the top of the lineup to get things going and the bottom of the lineup for cleaning up late. We shook their confidence by getting to Kluber, Allen and Bauer (why they burned Bauer is beyond me).

    I questioned why Hinch was going multiple with Pressly and using Osuna in a non- save, but I realize the brilliance in it now. They did not want to allow the Indians to gain any momentum. They shut them down through the end so that they have nothing to rally around.

    Nice job top to bottom! All 3 of Lunhow’s mid- season trades contributed! The Indians lead the league in steals but did not attempt one today. I love the way Maldanado controls the bases. I was questioning why McCann did not pinch hit for him vs a RHP but he put that to bed with a resounding HR.

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  30. You could tell it was a “businessman” crowd. It was really noticeable with Reddick getting a couple hits and very few “WOOOOoooooo’s”. I too thought Correa got good wood for first time in forever. The entire offense missed very few “mistakes.” Solid win – top to bottom.

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    • If this is how the situation played out yesterday, then maybe it’s for the best. He did not pitch well late in the year and if he can’t take the disappointment of not making the roster, maybe he wouldn’t have been able to face adversity on the field.
      Rondon helped us out a lot this season when Giles was not pitching well. I ‘m disappointed he didn’t hold up well late in the year. But it’s water under a past bridge and the Astros have more bridges to cross. They need to be able to have confidence in who they call on to get there.

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  33. Any Rondon distraction sure did not impact play yesterday. Our guys did pretty much everything we could have asked for. And I have every confidence that Cole will show up today too. Carrasco is no pushover, especially on the road. He’s very tough. But if our guys wait him out and don’t give him his normal strike out numbers, he could get frustrated. We had a whole lot of good at bats yesterday. Carlos too. He’s getting ready to hit!

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  34. Some notes:
    -Have to think that Pressley might not be used today, after throwing 22 pitches.
    -With a day off Sunday, Osuna might be used in a save situation after throwing 15 pitches.
    -Marwin’s caught stealing was understandable to me because Carlos was in an 0-2 hole and it gave Carlos a chance to lead off the next inning.
    -I thought Springer got a bad jump off second and was going to be dead meat at the plate. Bregman saw the whole thing and enticed the Indians to cut the throw off by getting himself into a purposeful rundown. I don’t know how analytics would view Bregman’s baserunning there, but it was a brilliant play on his part.
    -Some Indians fans are real upset that Kluber was left in to give up the back-to-back homers. They are even more upset that Francona burned their hero, Bauer, in a game in which they trailed.
    -Tyler White is the Astros DH. He had two hits, got on base with a HBP, and hit one of the hardest balls of the night on a line drive out, right to the first baseman. Wasn’t that his first playoff game and whose nephew is he?
    – I cannot explain why I think Colorado still has a chance and the Braves don’t.
    –

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  35. Really solid win yesterday and I applaud Hinch’s management of the game. He took out Verlander at the right time, used Pressly like the Indians used to use Andrew Miller and gave McCullers and Osuna an inning. I think that helps both of them. Going in I was concerned about McCullers but as a reliever he’s looking pretty good. If he embraces that role it makes us that much more formidable.
    About the only thing that gives me any concern is the number of foul balls allowed by Verlander. My son ran into Justin Upton in Phoenix last week and asked him who was the toughest Astro to face and with no hesitation answered Verlander because of the life on his fastball and unhittable breaking stuff. He said Cole throws harder but has a bit less movement. I hope the foul balls aren’t a harbinger of less life on his pitches.
    In the regular season our pitching staff ranked #1 in strikeouts while the Indians were #5 but our hitters only punched out three times yesterday while theirs struck out ten. If that trend continues I think we win in no more than four games. My wife and I are going today. We WILL NOT be listless. Go Stros!

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    • When Altuve is willing to go opposite field he is a great hitter, when he tries to pull everything he is not. That was a place where you just shorten up and take what they give you.

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  50. I thought pulling Carrasco was a bad move. I thought not pinch hitting Maldanado for a lefty with the bases loaded was a bad move. Our bad move didn’t hurt us and their’s did. I’ll take the win.

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