Random thoughts before a “safe haven” road trip

Just some thoughts as the Astros head off to their favorite haven – the road – after a 12-1 victory in the last game of a 1-5 homestand.

Who are those guys?

Back on June 24, the Oakland A’s were 40-38 and 11.5 games behind the 52-27 Astros. Since that day, the A’s have been a torrid 32-11 with really only a 3 game sweep by Colorado showing up on the negative side of the ledger. After Wednesday night’s games they were only 2 game behind the 74-47 Astros and on a real roll.

Their offense is 6th in the AL in runs scored and they already have 8 players with double digit HRs. Khris Davis (34 HR and 93 RBIs) and Jed Lowrie (19 HR and 76 RBIs) are the two big producers for an offense that has been a bit better than they were in 2017 when they were 9th in runs scored.

The pitching is where they have made great strides this season. They were 12th in 2017 with a 4.67 ERA, but they have risen to a fine 6th overall with a 3.83 ERA in 2018. The starting rotation has seen solid numbers from Edwin Jackson, Sean Manaea and Trevor Cahill, while closer Blake Treinen has been outstanding for a much improved bullpen.

This team has less injury problems than the Seattle Mariners and look to be in it for the whole of the season.

A Problem

The Astros were 1-5 on the recent homestand, however they scored 26 runs, just the same as their opponents in those six games. Of course that result was skewed by the 12-1 win in the finale. This is the Astros’ season in a microcosm. They win big and lose close. They are a robust 28-6 in games decided by five runs or more. They are a 98 pound weakling in one run games at 16-21. This is why they have such an excellent 82-39 Pythagorean record (what their run differential should have produced), while reality is a good 74-47 record.

Injuries

All teams face injuries, but the Astros have been particularly hard hit since the end of June:

Here is a look at the Astros record and lead at various times during this period

  • June 25th 52-28 –  65% win pace 3.5 games up in the division
  • July 25th  67-37 –  64% win pace 5 games up
  • Aug 4th   71-41 –  63% win pace  5 games up
  • Aug 10th 73-44 –  62% win pace  4.5 games up
  • Aug 16th 74-47 –  61% win pace  2 games up

Basically the Astros have held up fairly well overall, but the slippage has really occurred in the last couple weeks as the number of bodies on the DL has mounted. These guys were critical parts to this team. Despite bad performance early in the season at the time of Marisnick’s injury he was a critical part because he was playing so well and the fact that Springer was already out.

As the folks come back and get acclimated, the team should improve as they return to their normal spots in the field, lineup, bench and minors.

DH Question

The injury situation has given Tyler White a lot more consistent ABs at both DH and 1B. If the front office does not continue to give him ABs as the injured return….well like Lucy Ricardo there will be a lot of “Splaining” to do.  He is posting a .286 BA / .389 OBP / 1.012 OPS with 7 HRs and 15 RBIs in only 77 ABs. That is the equivalent of 45 HRs and 97 RBIs in 500 ABs. The man needs to lose weight, get in shape, be a better fielder, etc. But the man can hit and this lineup needs that component.

The 5th Spot

McCullers has been out almost 2 weeks, but next Tuesday will be the first day that the Astros play five days in a row. So, Tuesday will be the day they have to make a decision on the 5th spot in the rotation. Do they pick one of the two bullpen guys who started games in 2017, Collin McHugh or Brad Peacock, but probably would top out at 4 innings in a start? This could be paired with the activation of Devenski from the DL. Do they dip into the minors and bring up somebody who might get bombed in the first couple innings? Do they trade a bauble or two for another starter as filler?

One Option that is not an Option

Last season, a top choice to fill that 5th spot in the rotation would have been top prospect Francis Martes, who did do some spot starts for the team last season. However, unfortunately he is headed to Tommy John surgery after an injury plagued 2018. This is bad news this late in the season, because it could basically wipe out most or all of 2019 for the young man.

Your thoughts on these thoughts?

 

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124 responses to “Random thoughts before a “safe haven” road trip”

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      • The poem was inspired by the performance of Sain and Spahn during the Braves’ 1948 pennant drive. The team swept a Labor Day doubleheader, with Spahn throwing a complete game 14-inning win in the opener, and Sain pitching a shutout in the second game. Following two off days, it did rain. Spahn won the next day, and Sain won the day after that. Three days later, Spahn won again. Sain won the next day. After one more off day, the two pitchers were brought back, and won another doubleheader. The two pitchers had gone 8-0 in twelve days’ time.[3]

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  2. More great insight from you guys. I am quietly confident going into this series in Oakland. We must have a playoff type mindset in this series. I believe that we will show up and play this weekend. They have such a special vibe this year on the road. Its also nice to have ended a dreadful homestand on such a huge positive note. Looking forward to seeing how our guys perform this weekend!

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  3. dan, if they have someone ready that they think can handle it, i would prefer a starter be brought up for that from the minors. reward someone for performance in the minors and save a few innings on the major league arms.

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  4. The Martes situation frustrates me. He last pitched for Fresno on April 29th. He had the surgery last week. Obviously you don’t want to go under the knife if rehab and rest is possible, but it’s unfortunate that he’ll essentially miss all of 2018 and 2019. The upside is that he’s still very young and has a chance to have a long career after recovery. The downside is he could have been part of two teams that have the potential of repeating what they did last fall. That has to be a huge disappointment for him.

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  5. Multiple thoughts on your comments
    – Dan P was born into a huge Milwaukee Braves house, so technically the 1957 World Series was actually my first World Championship, though being less than 14 months old my memory is a bit fuzzy. I am sure like most up there I celebrated with a bottle.
    – Johnny Sain was from the Boston edition of the Braves, though Spahn spanned across. Burdette was the number two guy behind big Warren S.
    – Yes, Robert the team needs to go in there and rip the A’s up (though squeeze by would be OK too)
    – rray J – gotta say I think they should bring someone up to fill LMJ’s spot – and take the risk to get a reward.
    – Devin I was thinking the same thing. Why did they wait this long to perform the surgery – it really wipes out this year and next

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    • Read a story once about Sain telling his pitchers to “Never be afraid to climb those golden stairs.” His story was in the middle of a pennant race, he went to the GM or owner and demanded a few thousand more dollars. And after all the yelling, he said, “It is going to be Spahn and pray for a flood.” He then got his money.

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  6. Altuve….says sometime in September. Not believing it.
    I hope our guys packed their hits along with their bats. It ain’t gonna be easy.
    My choice to bring up a minor league pitcher, is* JOSH JAMES* !
    He’s scary good! I hope the next time we meet on this blog, it’s with a win!

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  8. Typical. White does a nice job going the other way for a one out hit. Then Maldonado turns a 3-0 count into a strike em out throw em out DP on a pitch low and away.

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  9. I hope you’re getting to hear the music in between innings, because they are playing Aretha Franklin!! It’s even tolerable listening to that guy with the dam drum!!

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  14. Tough night for the local 9. BUT….we ALL know a one run lead is never going to hold up. We ALL know that. I’m exhausted….going to bed.

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  16. And now it’s time for “Astro Mystery Theater”. Tonight’s episode, “The strange disappearance of the Closer.”

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  17. I know I’ve said this before but it really just befuddles me. Batter is in a 2-0 or 3-0 count. 90% of the time he’ll get a fastball, right down the middle. He let’s it go by, then swings at the next or succeeding pitch for a strike out, pop up, weak roller, etc. I always hear the announcers say. Now he’s ready for that pitch he can do something with. For once I’d like to see the batter swing at that piece of cheese down the center. The odds have to be in his favor to get a hit. We hit a stellar .176 last night. Oh, 10 – 13 since the All Star Break. In one of the previous comments, “don’t start printing those World Series tickets.” It’s more like, “don’t even start printing the playoff tickets.” I HOPE I’M WRONG!

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    • And Osuna really hasn’t shown me anything yet. I’m not impressed with our acquisitions thus far. Maldonado has been excellent behind the plate but not much at the plate. I guess we got him for his defense as it sure wasn’t his offense. For all the talent we traded away we could have had Realmuto (IMO).

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  19. Time after time over the course of the season, it has been the Astros failure to get hits and score runs in close games that has gotten them into this position. Not scoring runs magnifies everything else that seems to cost the Astros victories. When you don’t score any runs, hit into double plays and leave runners on base, things like overturned calls seem huge, when they aren’t. They aren’t because the team can’t beat journeyman starters and put away a team when they should.
    Hundreds of times this season the Astros have come to the plate with chances to break open a tight game and haven’t done it. And that includes every player on this team, not just a couple.

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    • I knew last night might be a tough scoring game, Jackson has been on a roll – 0 ER in his last three starts.
      But the point is well taken, because the Astros have not taken care of business against pitchers they should have owned. I don’t like their approach of taking too many pitches that are the best pitches they will see. They are so slow out of the gate – just rarely getting the lead early.
      They of course have a shot to turn things around in the last 40 games of the season as they get their best players back and contributing, but they have never looked this year like the offensive juggernaut they were last season even when all were healthy.

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  21. The rotations, collectively, must all be pulling out their hairs at the opportunities squandered because of the inability of the offense to score. JV, GC & Salty should be top five in the AL won/loss column yet their losses are catching up to their wins. The regulars will win series & mayb some guys will get hot in the playoffs (GS 2017). That seems the best we can hope for at this juncture. I agree Zunada, with the talent they’ve given away, a good closer or that other guy in Florida may have been had, including trading away one of the top prospects of course.
    How does AJ incorporate White & Kemp in the lineup over Gattis/Tucker, esp when all the regs are back? Is it prudent to go after a shutdown closer/consistent bat if the usual suspects cont to struggle offensively & in the bp? I dunno, I’m at a loss short of a shutdown closer & another big stick to help spark this offense

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  22. We have to face the fact that last year was an anomaly……for what ever reason, Beltran, Cora, or just plain luck.
    This team resembles 2016 a lot more than 2017. I don’t expect a lot more when they are all back and healthy.

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      • We WERE given a gift last year and I will be forever grateful.
        We have that experience even if it never happens again.
        It’s really mystifying. All this talent and at times such poor hitting, base running, and fielding.

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  23. I will say I think it has hurt badly not having the MVP in the lineup even though his power is down a bit this year.
    Altuve may be back at the end of the road trip – let’s see if the team can hit another gear by the end of the month.

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  24. Just remember as our good friend daveb points out – this team is in a similar spot to last season. They are 74-48 today as opposed to 75-47 after 122 games last season. Now other teams in our division have been playing top end ball and that is why it is so tight.
    But in the end it comes down to who is playing the best ball at the end of the season and who can win 11 games in the playoffs or 12 for the Wild Card teams.
    And the Astros are playing better ball than any defending champion in the last decade plus.

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  27. Since I can’t see him, how does Keuchel look? Is he struggling? The A’s, have a plan….and that is gang up on Dallas, same thing for Verlander tomorrow.

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  28. Well they are having no trouble finding holes in our defense and we just keep on doing the same things expecting a different outcome.
    I gave up already. Looks hopeless.

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  32. Besides lefties, tms feed this lineup a steady diet of breaking balls, which they struggle mightily to hit. In contrast the opposition sits on DK’s breaking stuff, feast on his mistakes and crush his FB’s. If the lineup was more selective in it’s pitch recognition & patient at the plate, how successful would this formula be for them? Working pretty well for the A’s today.

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  33. That A’s have the fire, the confidence, the swagger, the edge, they we ain’t loosing mentality we had last year. This year with a few exceptions we look bored, un focused, half assed, like a bunch of overcooked marshmallows.

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  36. Just curious folks.
    You think the players, coaches, or FO is
    at fault?
    I bet Jim Crane is not a happy guy these days. Altuve, Luhnow, and probably others got some hefty raises this year.

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    • 70% players, 20% Coaches, 10% FO. I wonder about our “conditioning programs” as we have been beset by injuries. We do need a new hitting coach or the players aren’t listening to what they’re being told. But I do believe their approach is wrong. As previously mentioned, Lunhow has not impressed me with his trades this year. Almost like let’s do this and see what happens. Sometimes managing by analytics just doesn’t work. Get back to plain old baseball. See ball, throw ball, catch ball, hit ball.

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    • Players. The stat geeks were right. Every Astros hitter played over their abilities last year and the geeks said they couldn’t do it again. They were correct. The Astros pitching and defense have improved a lot over last season, but the hitting has been lousy all year. Had Gattis not carried them all by himself in June and Bregman in July, they would have been in third place on the first of August.
      You could see the outcome of the game from the first pitch, when Cahill nailed the outside corner at the knees and Springer backed out of the box in dismay. You could see the losing in their body language from the very first out.
      Settlers.
      The organization thought they could get the Astros lineup to do the same things as last season, but they weren’t prepared to fix the minds of the players who were happy with their rings and their fame.
      The worst thing to happen to the 2018 Astros was 2017.

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  37. The inj bug could not be helped, except using mittens. Some regression was expected, even the hangover. The attitude required to go back to back like the last Yanks tm I can’t imagine how they persevered through that. Maybe come playoff time they’ll turn it up a notch. If the FO is going to roll with what they have then so be it, say so. We got the closer so don’t expect a big ticket bat before the deadline. Unfortunately Cranes billions is not enough alone to bring in a big bat except during Hot Stove. How do coaches make hitters follow the plan, prob never been done across the mlb

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  39. We got to read some articles earlier in the year that statistically there is no such thing as “hitting in the clutch.” This year we have watched game after game watching what “NOT hitting in the clutch” looks like.

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    • EXACTLY!! But keeping Hudgens as the hitting coach will only be another year of disaster. Either they aren’t listening to their coaches, or they can’t hit in a clutch situation. The Astros are going to have to go on a tear and win the next 35 out of 39 games…..or go home and watch the playoffs on their couch. I’m getting the feeling that our starters are looking at the rest of the position players with contempt….and I don’t blame them.
      Verlander will once again try to win that elusive 200th win, good luck fellas Sean Manaea will be looking to strike you out.

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  40. I can’t remember ever seeing a team look so bad at the plate with the exception of our teams of 11, 12, & 13. But I wasn’t able to watch those teams on a daily basis like I Can now.
    Logic tells me they can’t all be that bad without some help from somewhere.
    I agree with Zanuda. Maybe less analytics and more baseball common sense would help.
    One thing I would bet on is this team can only get worse.

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  41. I think we can identify the JINX. Some unnamed person wrote a column not too long ago that started. “After their 5-2 loss to the Mariners on Friday night the Astros hold a tenuous four and a half game lead over the Oakland A’s and only six games over the M’s. The next 16 games could well be the key stretch for this Astros’ teams attempt to repeat as champs of all of baseball in 2018……….”

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  42. Right now the Houston LL team is playing the New York LL team in the Little League WS on ESPN. Both teams are 1-0 so far. The Houston LL team is wearing Astros throwback rainbow jerseys and are hitting like the big team as they trail 2-1 in the 6th…..

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  43. Who ever wins this afternoon’s game will be totally exhausted. You have two of the toughest pitcher’s in MLB, because runs are as scarce as hens teeth. I’m crossing my fingers that Altuve will only need one game on rehab to get back in the Astros lineup. The Astros simply HAVE to win this game today…PERIOD.

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  44. The only do-or-die games are tie- breakers to get into the playoffs and playoff elimination games. The Astros lost a lot of ground in the last 40 games; they can make up a lot in the next 40. This lineup is too good not to turn the corner and start hitting. Injuries have kept productive players out, but more damaging it has caused massive shakeups in the order. Once everyone gets settled back in and comfortable in their roles I expect a huge pick-up.

    I don’t care how hot they are right now, as long as they hold it together enough to make the playoffs. I only care how they play from game 163 on. They don’t give out any awards for how you do in the regular season. If they start to be in danger of missing the second wild card spot I will start to worry. Until then all I care about is biding time until everyone is back and healthy.

    The playoffs start a whole new season. This team is built more to win in the playoffs than suffer a 162 game grind. Put them in their element, with all the stakes on the line and they will be fine.

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    • i agree vw, and i am unapologetically positive about this team this season. i can think of few other teams/organizations that could have weathered all these injuries and set backs for this many games and still be a division leader. once we have our team back we will be fine. and by fine i mean making the playoffs and playing well in them.

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  46. The reason I said this was a must win, is going into the series with the M’s, they would have some wind in their sails. PLUS….giving Verlander a win would just be the Cherry on top.
    I mentioned a couple of days ago that my choice for a pitcher from the Fresno’s, to make a spot start would be Josh James. Luhnow had McCann catch Josh last night and had VERY good reports after their game. James topped 100 mph last night, and McCann said the only knock against him was a few walks. Those walks did not factor in his outting, the Grizzlies won their game! The way Luhnow was talking, Josh may get a chance to pitch in the next few games!
    I’ve been keeping up with this kid….he’s SCARY GOOD!! Good luck fellas, and GET THIS WIN!!!

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    • It would be nice if Verlander got the “respect” someone of his stature normally earns
      Should have had a 3 pitch K – instead ends up giving up a 6th pitch HR.

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