Halfway there: The defending champ 2018 Astros

Tuesday night’s win by the Astros marked the 81st game and the halfway point in the Astros season.

It never works to double numbers at this point – but what the heck – we will do it anyways and discuss some things that could occur.

The Bottom Line. The Astros have 53 wins, which extrapolates to 106 wins and beats their best season ever by four wins.

The Gap. In all of the 2017 regular season, the Astros outscored their opponents by 196 runs. Already in 2018 they have outscored the opponents by 173 runs. Their Pythagorean record based on that gap says they should have won 59 games in the first half on a pace for an insane 118 wins.

Pitching improvement. The Astros are on a pace for allowing 492 runs on the season. Last season they gave up 700 runs!

RBIs Are Us. Last season the Astros were led by Marwin Gonzalez with 90 RBIs for the season. This season, 3 hitters are on pace for more than 90 – Evan Gattis (102), Carlos Correa (98) and Alex Bregman (94) with George Springer (84) and Jose Altuve (82) on pace for more than 80 RBIs.

Innings Eaters. Last season only 3 pitchers in the AL had more than 200 IP (Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer). This season two Astros are on pace for 200+ – Justin Verlander (217 IP) and Gerrit Cole (210). Three other Astros are on pace for 188 IP or more – Dallas Keuchel (194), Charlie Morton (190) and Lance McCullers (188). It would seem someone is going to get some rest in the second half.

Winners. Probably the best season for Astros’ starting pitchers and wins was 1999, when Mike Hampton went 22-4, the late Jose Lima went 21-10 and Shane Reynolds clocked in at 16-14. After that it dropped back to Scott Elarton and his part starting, part relieving 9-5 record. This season, the Astros are on pace to have Charlie Morton (20-2), Gerrit Cole (18-2), Justin Verlander (18-6) and Lance McCullers (16-6). Dallas Keuchel is on a pace for 8-16, but he is the exception to an exceptional winning rotation.

Dingers all around. In 2017, the Astros had an unbelievable 11 players finish with double figures in home runs. This year they have 10 players on a pace for 10 or more home runs (Gonzalez, Gattis, Correa, Bregman, Springer, Altuve, Brian McCann, Jake Marisnick, Josh Reddick, and Max Stassi) and the eleventh could well be Yuli Gurriel, who has four so far, but missed time in the first half.

Odd Stats

  • In 2017, the Astros had 11 pitchers started games. Halfway through 2018, only five pitchers have started games.
  • In 2017, the Astros had 45 saves on the season, led by Ken Giles at 34. They are currently on a pace for only 36 saves in 2018 (though on a pace for more wins) and Giles is on a pace for 22 off those, though that would be optimistic at this point.
  • Non-speedster Yuli Gurriel has the same amount of SBs (2) as Jake Marisnick, Tony Kemp, Derek Fisher, Carlos Correa, Josh Reddick, and Marwin Gonzalez.
  • Yuli led the team in doubles in 2017. Bregman leads in 2018.
  • Bregman led in triples in 2017. Marwin leads in 2018.
  • Marwin led in RBIs in 2017. Gattis leads in 2018.

For your input…

  • Where do you think the Astros are headed in the second half of the season?
  • Who will end up their leader in:
    • Wins
    • Innings pitched
    • Saves
    • HRs
    • RBIs
    • Runs scored
  • Finish this sentence “It will not surprise me if……”
  • Finish this sentence “It will surprise me if ……”
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101 responses to “Halfway there: The defending champ 2018 Astros”

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  1. Where are the Astros headed in the second half? To war, with the Seattle Mariners.
    Who will be their leader in wins? Charlie Gerritt McVerlander Jr.
    Who will be their leader in innings pitched? Cole.
    Who will be their leader in saves? Hector Giles.
    HRs? Springer
    RBIs? Bregman
    Runs scored? Bregman
    It will not surprise me if Tucker gets called up in the second half.
    It will surprise me if the Astros don’t make a big trade for a pitcher.

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    • I saw where at his previous stop – the fans had started the obvious tradition of chugging a beer after Seth hit a home run.

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  3. * Where are the Astros headed in the 2nd half? *

    That depends largely on how we do against the Angels [15 head-to-head games remaining], the Mariners [13 head-to-head games remaining], and the A’s [10 head-to-head games remaining]. We also have another series with the Red Sox, a series with the Dodgers in L.A., and two series’ with the Tigers. This ain’t over – not by a long shot.

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      • I see your point. The Tigers are indeed slipping as the Indians have come alive and started to rampage through the AL Central. But I have just noted how the Blue Jays and Rays have losing records as well, yet both of those teams have managed to give us fits.

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    • If we are truly going to ‘never settle’ – and make it back to the WS, we need to do all the following:
      1. find a way to get George Springer out of this ridiculously bad funk;
      2. get Carlos Correa healthy and keep Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman healthy;
      3. keep getting production from left field and DH [Kemp and the new, improved Evan Gattis have been the most productive in those positions, but we will, at some point, probably want to consider starting the clock on KTuck];
      4. get each of our starters some rest;
      5. find a way to minimize the ‘Bad Keuchel effect’ [Dan’s ‘opener’ concept is one possibility; replacing him in the rotation with Whitley or Perez is another potential option – though not without risks];
      6. bring up some guys like Armenteros, Paulino, Martes, Gaduan, and maybe Hoyt for short periods to give some meaningful rest to each of the key members of the bullpen [Devenski, Peacock, McHugh, Harris, Rondon, Giles, and Sipp];
      7. find a really reliable closer and get him settled into the role.

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  4. Something I noticed that has not been talked about during Randy Cesar’s epic 42-game hitting streak. Cesar had K rates of 25% in April and May, when he hit way above .300. But, in June, when he as hit over .350, his K-rate dropped to 14%.
    It seems like a guy who is in the middle of something historic would be swinging at everything, but this guy’s pitch recognition seems to have improved as the streak has gone on.

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      • Maybe pitchers are trying to make him chase early in the count, and he doesn’t do it. Then they have to come in with the pitch and then he doesn’t miss it. He’s not walking at all, so when a pitch is in the zone he hits it.

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  5. * It will not surprise me if . . . *

    – Dallas Keuchel goes on the DL very soon.
    – George Springer breaks out of his funk big time within the next 10 games.
    – Cionel Perez is not quite ready for prime time.
    – KTuck finishes the season as a regular in our outfield;
    – Tony Kemp, who has really given us a spark and shown his talent this time up, but who is regarded by the FO less highly than other left-handed hitting outfielders in our system, gets included along with a mid- to lower-level pitching prospect in a trade for a strategic bullpen piece;
    – If Kemp goes via trade, both KTuck and Myles Straw are up with the big club before the last week of August.

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  6. This is going to be a great summer of baseball drama. The immediate Luhnow goal has to be to end up with the best record in the American league. So he’s going to make this club better in order to compensate for the moves the Sox, Yankees and M’s will inevitably make.

    More and more, I believe Tucker will become part of that equation, and that would probably happen immediately if Tony Kemp was to get traded. But do we really want to trade Tony right now? His value is at an all time high, but he’s meant a lot to this club over our present 17 and 3 streak. I don’t see right handed bat Miles Straw coming up this year, unless we have the great misfortune of losing a guy like Springer to injury.

    Speaking of injuries, we’ve been very lucky to date. Are there any other teams whose Opening Day rotation has not missed a start? So while we’re posting the best second half record record in the AL, we’ll need to give a few of those guys a 10 day vacation along the way too.

    At some point pretty soon, the pen will get a shiny new option. Giles might go. Plenty of teams would like him. I’d send him to San Diego. And in October, I would not be surprised to see a Whitley or a James on a post season roster. That also might mean there will not be a place for Keuchel at that point. I still think he’s an excellent #5 guy. But what role does he take on in the playoffs? So do we save him that humiliation and trade him? A tough assignment. No non contender is going to want him. And as I said the other day, we don’t him coming back to haunt us either.

    It will surprise me if this club does not take ownership of the best record in the league and hold on to it in the second half.

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  7. This Randy Cesar story is a remarkable one. 42 games, a Texas League all time record. I have to admit though, I wonder how a guy with a lifetime OPS of .723 comes up with an unprecedented hitting streak. One explanation would be the .444 BABIP. That’s pretty remarkable in itself.

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  8. Question her cause I love the dude? Could we hang on to Kemp, he becomes are cheaper Marwin the next couple years and Marwin goes bye bye. We lose some power and great arm, however we get a high energy , get on base, great chemistry, doesn’t bitch at every other call and takes 20 minutes per AB dude???

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    • But Tony really does not have the arm for third or short or from the outfield. And he’s kind of short for first. Nor does he hit from the right side. Even in an off year, it’s hard not to appreciate what Marwin provides.

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      • I like Tony Kemp’s energy and passion for the game as much as anybody on this team not named Jose’ Altuve. The only way I see us keeping and utilizing him effectively, however, is as DH and as occasional substitute for a slower outfielder or for a guy who never wants to come out of any game [the aforesaid Jose’ dude]. So, who do we want as DH – Tony Kemp or Evan Gattis? I think I know the FO’s answer to that question – and I also know that a guy like Evan, who is older than Tony and has no defensive position, is not as marketable to other teams. So, while I hate it, I think Tony’s highest and best use on this team ultimately will be as a key player in a trade. He deserves to play somewhere every day – and I firmly believe he will, soon.

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    • The other night we are losing by one run in the 9th. Kemp’s up and he knows what his job is – knows what his team needs and he gets a good pitch and hits it sharply into left field. No overswing – just get on base. 5 minutes later he’s riding home on Bregman’s blast.

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  9. We’ll probably lose Marwin, unless he finds out the market will not give him the long term contract he’ll be looking for. We also might not sign Evan for what he’s going to cost next year. So the bench could look quite a bit different with a couple or three guys combined that will hopefully do what Marwin does and DH too. If White hits, he can DH and play the corners. Tony can keep doing what he’s doing. Then we have Jake back, or a new right handed outfield bat. What’s great is that we have Bregman and Yuli, both who can play multiple positions. Who becomes the emergency catcher? I know Luhnow can figure this stuff out much better than I can.

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  10. What would it take to pry Blake Snell from the Rays (controllable until 2023)
    – Bukauskas
    – Cionel Perez
    – Brad Peacock
    – Tony Kemp
    – AJ Reed or Tyler White
    Would that be enough – would we do it?

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    • That would not be enough. It would take somebody at the top who is gonna hurt. He is their new ace and they would want a huge haul for him that started with Whitley.

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  13. JB Bukauskas was the starting pitcher for the GCL rookie league Astros today and went 1.2 innings. He gave up 5 hits, a wild pitch and two earned runs. He got hit hard. He struck out 2 and walked none. He faced 10 batters.
    GCL Astros did come back and win that game with a ton of hitting late.

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  14. I was talking to my brother before the game tonight as to why Bregman does not play short with Carlos on the DL. My guess was that Alex knows the shifts over at third like no other guy on the team. Unfortunately, it turned out to be a timely conversation.

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  15. wins – cole
    innings – verlander
    saves – giles
    hr’s – springer
    rbi’s – correa
    runs – springer
    it will not surprise me if keuchel is part of a package before the trade deadline that brings in pitching for us, most likely relief.
    it will surprise me if no moves are made. luhnow will improve the team for the stretch run and the post season.

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  17. Cole had an unfortunate game tonight. His arm is tired, probably looking forward to the break. Reed is over matched, and he’s slow. Tony Kemp is a helleva, nice guy but he’s gonna get Wally Pipped by Kyle Tucker. And I am going out on a limb and say he comes up before the break.
    I wonder if the Cuban will get a turn tonight? I hear he has wipe out stuff!

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  18. That was a tough two run error. If either Carlos or Yuli was on the field, the Astros are probably up 2-1 right now.

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  20. Bagwell said in a recent pregame interview with Blum, “we got spoiled a little bit last yr, we have to grind a lot more this yr because everybody else has gotten better.” And we’ll see more of the same the second half, grinding every game and while being offensively challenged they are still right there in the thick of things. Our pitching will need breathers along the way and some of the guys in the lineup need to heat up (not a bad idea for some to take Bregman notes on hitting, hint, hint).
    Cole leads in wins
    Verlander innings
    Giles leads in saves unless Rondon catches him moving forward.
    Springer HR’s
    Altuve leads in hits
    Bregman in RBI’s
    Would not be surprised if JL makes a move during the deadline
    Would be surprised if DK is moved during the deadline

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  21. Just not impressed by Reed or White. Marvin is good at SS but he’s no Correa. Agree that McHugh is pitching super. He can slide right into DK’s spot and pick up the slack. I think most of these guys are ready for a break. I can see us giving spot starts to Paeacock/McHugh or bringing up someone else. To get us through to the playoffs I believe this will be necessary. Had some decently hit balls but unfortunately they were at the Ray’s defenders.

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  22. Wins – JV
    Innings – JV
    Saves – Giles
    HR -Better be Correa
    RBI – Correa
    Runs – Altuve
    No Surprise – Gattis cools off
    Surprise – Correa does not start hitting again.

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  23. Tonight was a good example of what injuries can do to a team. Though not injuries, Springer, Correa, and Yuli out of this line up currently makes a very weak hitting team. Don’t look now but A’s and Mariners won again.

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      • Dan, Jake did not deserve an E on that play at the wall. Most guys don’t even get there. That’s why I always thought it was dumb to have a rotating collection of sportswriters making those decisions as the official scorer.

        The two run error was the game changer. As I noted last night, I think it’s safe to say that Carlos would have made that throw and Yuli would have picked that ball out of the dirt. If we had one of those guys out there last night, it would have been a nice 2-1 win.

        A totally separate issue: Reed may go on and have a good career as a first baseman/DH. But it will be somewhere else. I’m sure the Astros like/liked his power potential, but on our team, most everyone on the roster is a good athlete all the way down to our back up catcher.

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  24. This is not the game the Astros were supposed to win and didn’t. Again, the starting pitching was good and the rest of the team wasn’t.

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    • It shaped up to be a pitchers duel. With the guy we had on the mound, I had some expectations of a win. If the guy on either end of that play makes a play, we win. Now, our defense has been incredible, so I’m not ready to throw anyone under the bus.

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    • Could almost tell that something was amiss when JV couldn’t throw a strike and hit the 1st batter. Someday’s it’s like that.

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  27. Hope this wasn’t the game we were supposed to win OP. I’m not throwing in the towel yet though. Someday soon George will break out. That’s for certain.

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  31. How is HInch going to balance resting the rotation along the way? They clearly look down a tick though still dealing. The offense, with fill ins and all really need to slug their way out of hibernation. Grinding through gms will feature different goats and hero’s every night. Last night’s game was winnable with Breg supplying a few runs. Too many ofers, mistakes hurt.

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  32. When you have half of your starting middle infield gone…..it spells disaster.
    Bregman just hit another 2 run homerun!! Get off the mat and get back in this game you *RUBES*!!!

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    • Springer with 3 K’s. This ain’t a slump. It’s a disaster. Gattis has forgotten how to hit again. Definitely need to see “Ted” very soon if there’s nobody else available. We are loaded with a bunch of AAAA players. Time to unload and retool. I guess tearing the cover off the ball in AAA doesn’t translate to the big leagues with some guys.

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      • Z, who do you want to unload? And who to you want to retool with? That sounds a bit like the comments we were making daily when losing 100 plus games a year. Is the sky really falling? Again?

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      • I meant retool the minors. Sorry I wasn’t clear on that. We’ve got a lot of those AAAA players at Fresno who may never get to play on the big club. Of all those who have come up this year Kemp is the only one holding his own. The rest don’t seem to have it. Maybe they could play for another team but you’re not going to replace anybody in the infield for the next two years or longer. Does that seem to make more sense?

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    • Becky, our guy Yuli now has a son and a daughter. That’s a very happy thing. We’ll get our stuff together and will kick ass after the break. Am I allowed to say that?

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    • I still have faith. OP has us winning 2 of 4. I’m with him but will also hold him accountable if things go south.

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  39. This will likely be my last comment of the night, as tomorrow, I’ve committed myself to hike Nevis Peak again, (elevation 3232) which is steep and can be a tough muddy slog when it has been raining. Up top, annual accumulation is typically 120 plus inches.

    Anyway, we rarely speak of young Carlos Correa and the marvelous defensive presence he provides us at shortstop. I think we sometimes take him for granted.

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  40. I know this is late, but we might have another one going on the DL.
    George Springer layer out for a foul ball today, and was slow to get up.
    His back got hurt…..he will be evaluated tomorrow to see if it’s a trip to the doctor and an MRI. THANK GOODNESS we have Kemp who can play left, and center and Jake and Reddick out there! We will miss him, but if he has to take a week off, we can call Derrick Fisher back up, and send Reed down when Yuli comes back tomorrow. These guys need a rest, and the break can’t get here fast enough! Snell pitches for the Rays tomorrow, and we have Charlie on the mound for us…..STICK IT TO ‘EM boys!!
    P.S—Yuli’s, little girl has a TON of thick black hair, just like her daddy!

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    • Just curious. Why is it that our guys are “tired and wore out and need a rest but other teams seem to be just cruising along and getting stronger. Seattle, Oakland and Boston are moving right along. NY has had a let down but we’re getting beat by teams that we shouldn’t be getting beat by. In our last three games and two losses, the offense (save for a couple of guys) failed to show up. Our Bull pen is spot on and normally our starting pitching is superb. Maybe it’s time to give a spot start to Paecock/McHugh. We can’t expect those guys to go out there and throw a no hitter every time but I’m wondering if there is something else amiss. Tampa Bay has employed this funky bull pen/starter thing against us and we haven’t even dented the armor. Both JV and Cole were just not as sharp as they have been and it showed. We obviously refuse to play small ball and I think we’ve lost a few games because of it. Remember, if what you’re doing ain’t working , you might want to try something else. I don’t know the answer and maybe I’m just concerned where there is no reason to be but this is not 2017 where we ran away with the division and the dogs are now snapping at our heels.

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  41. * The Rays All-Star representative is Marwin Gonzalez, who is the best player on their team this weekend.
    * Blame the loss yesterday on Kate Upton, who won’t set foot in Tropicana Field because it’s older than she is.
    * The Astros could replace Springer with Rick Ankiel and not miss a beat.
    * Reed and White joined the Titanic just in time for it’s epic voyage. They are in charge of the bailing buckets.
    * Blake Snell paid $150,000 to be able to pitch against the Astros today.
    * Kalas and Blum asked to do a radio broadcast today because neither of them wants anyone to have to see the Astros in this condition.
    * The giveaways on the next homestand will be half the team with bobblegloves and the rest of the team with bobblebats.
    * The Rangers have invited the Astros to stay and play three extra games next week. They even told the Astros they could wear home uniforms.
    * Cionel Perez is in the lineup today at DH.
    * The game that Verlander gives up five runs in two innings is not the game the Astros were supposed to win and didn’t.
    The Mariners should be willing to trade their entire AAA organization to Tampa for Ryne Stanek.

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  42. Sometimes you play a team that is hot. The Rays were feeling good about themselves after sweeping three from the Yanks and two from the Nats – both teams that should be better than them.
    Baseballs seasons are novels and you just can’t judge the whole book on a few pages or even a few chapters.
    The Astros have had a few problems here tied to some slumping folks like Springer and McCann, some folks cooling off like Gattis and Stassi and some guys missing like Correa and Gurriel. But they are overall playing very well for a defending champion. They just don’t have a push over division this season – at least to this point.

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  43. Well Becky – no DL for George (yet) but he is sitting out today.

    Bregman (3B)
    Altuve (2B)
    Gurriel new papa (1B)
    Gattis (DH)
    White (1B)
    Reddick (RF)
    Stassi (C)
    Marisnick (CF)
    Kemp (LF)

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  47. Lineup confused early on, either swing out of zone strikeouts or caught looking strikeouts, either one doesn’t bode well for these guys

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