Opportunity awaits: Astros need to go full throttle to the All Star break

On June 5, after losing to James Paxton and the Mariners were 37-25, the Astros were two games back in the division behind Seattle, and 5 1/2 games back of the Red Sox for the best record in the majors. For perspective, 37-25 is on pace for a 97 win season, which would tie for the Astros’ 3rd best ever record. But still, it felt a little disappointing.  At the time, it was noted that the M’s had played one of the easiest schedules in the majors and the Astros one of the hardest, but this was about to reverse.

The Astros took advantage of a softer schedule and through Sunday’s win over the Royals, they had gone 15-2 in their last 17 games and were sporting a 52-27 record (106 win pace). They had made up 6 1/2 games on the M’s and were leading the division by four games. On top of this, they were in a virtual tie with the Yankees for the best record in the majors. A very nice 2-1/2 weeks by the Astros to flip things around. But it is not enough.

The Astros are staring at another set of soft series between now and the All Star Break, starting July 16. They play in order:

  • Three at home against Toronto (36-41)
  • Four at Tampa Bay (37-40)
  • Two at Texas (34-45)
  • Four at home against Chisox (26-51)
  • Three at home against Oakland (40-38)
  • Three at home against Detroit (36-42)

Only the A’s are presently above .500 from that grouping and possibly the biggest barrier to a great run is the crazy fact that 13 of the 19 games are at home, where the Astros have a winning record, but are 5 1/2 games worse than on the road.

This is the time to bury the other teams in the division. This is the time to grab the home field advantage. The Astros need to continue to get very good starting pitching, the improved hitting they’ve seen lately (Friday night being an exception) and solid relief pitching.

Currently, the Astros have two pitchers in the top five in innings pitched; Justin Verlander (third, but likely first after Monday’s start) and Gerrit Cole (fifth). They also have two more in the top 20 in Dallas Keuchel (13th) and Lance McCullers (17th). The best way to get these guys some rest down the stretch is to build up a big lead and this is a prime chance to do just that.

The offense has gotten a lot steadier in this recent streak – scoring four or more runs in 15 of the 17 games, those two exceptions (1 run and 0 runs scored) came in the only two losses. If they can keep that going and have Carlos Correa or George Springer go on one of their tears where they carry the team, this could be a real special streak heading into an All Star game that should have a real Astros flavor to it.

  • How many of the next 19 games should the Astros win?
  • How many will they win?
  • What will be their lead in the division, if any, after 19 games?
  • Will they have the best record in baseball headed into the All Star Break?
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176 responses to “Opportunity awaits: Astros need to go full throttle to the All Star break”

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  1. Yaaargh – first sentence should say “On June 5, after losing to James Paxton and the Mariners were the Astros were 37-25, and were two games back…”
    Not the crappy first sentence I wrote up there….

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  2. How many of the next 19 games should the Astros win? 15
    How many will they win? 12, because they lose a game a week they shouldn’t.
    What will their lead be in the West? 5.5 games because I think the Mariners will go 11-8 in their next 19 games.
    Will the Astros have the best record in baseball by the AS break. I will say no, because of those three games they lost that drove me crazy.

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  3. If you’re Brian Cashman, GM of the Yankees, the best way to get a frontline starting pitcher in return for Clint Frazier is to stand up in front of the world and say you don’t want to have to trade Clint Frazier to get a starting pitcher.

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  4. I have given up trying to prognosticate wins and losses for the 2018 Astros. They are simultaneously the most talented and the most schizophrenic Houston team I have watched in my 56 years of fandom. There are only three truly consistent ballplayers on this team – Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Jose Altuve. The rest are playing the part of immensely talented versions of Sybil.

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  5. I think we’re the ones getting more wacky as we get older. Based on strength of the rotation alone, I can’t see why we would not have the best record in the league going into the break.

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  6. Right on, Brother. But wait . . . based on strength of the rotation alone, I can’t see why we haven’t had the best record in the league continuously since Day 1 of the season.

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    • Good point from one of us wacky guys. My answer is that we forgot how to hit for awhile. But the cool thing is that we still have room to grow the offensive performance.

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  7. I think Jeff Luhnow needs to call Tyler White and AJ Reed into his office over the break and tell them that SI wants to put them in the 2019 Body Issue…but they are going to have to get in shape a bit first. They can consult with Keuchel on this. Obviously training only for baseball isn’t enough inspiration to get them chiseled…

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  8. dan i have read so many of your pieces now that i follow you even when things dont come out on paper they same way you are thinking them in your head. and as one that that happens to quite often i commiserate.

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  10. Astros ought to play .700 ball against that schedule, so that’s 13 wins. I can see them winning 14-15. If they do that I think they will lead the division by 7 or 8 and have the best record in the league. Yankees have PHI/ATL/BOS/CLE all coming up before the break.

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  11. JV gets in a 2-0 hole in the first and then they tie it up on a Yuli single in the first and a Bregman dinger in the third. Go ‘ Stros!!

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  12. It was enjoyable seeing former Astros / current Blue Jays Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler Clippard get their rings before the game. Clippard especially looked tickled.

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  14. I’m with you roadthriller, 14-15 wins even though the tms offense drives me nuts at times. Springer & CC need to pick it up & keep it up. The back of the lineup except Gattis and Kemp aren’t hitting that well though MG has improved some & Kemps GIDP’s are disconcerting (he’s not alone though) even while carrying a 300+BA.

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  15. I hope the guys get JV off the hook for the loss after Grandersons 2 HRs including a long pop up into the Crawford Boxes

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  16. This has been the most inconsistent home plate umpiring that I have seen in a long tie. Bregman walked on Ball 5. The first 2 runs came after JV got strike 3. Altuve DIS strike out looking on a strike. But Carlos took 2 pitches that over laid each other. One a strike. One a ball. Ump is not crooked, not demonic, just not consistent.

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    • I would have been happier if the ball that was called a strike against Altuve had been called the 10 times JV threw it

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  24. Man, I wish that guy in the front row would have owned that ball. How many chances do we get in life to actually impact a game by taking one away from the fielder?

    I hate two out homers when the other team hits them.

    Maybe a bit of weariness from Verlander tonight?

    I don’t mind losing the opener again, as long as we keep winning the next two.

    So does George get given a day off, or more time to work his way out of what has become a real slump?

    Good night folks.

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    • Daveb – totally agree on the fan, but I’ve been out there when one came close and it isn’t that easy – trying to get around fans and seats and then a glove coming right at you – wish he just jumped and swatted it

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      • Yeah Dan, he just needed to break up the play, as one would in the defensive secondary. Had he been in position, he could have simply stood up and gotten his own glove up higher than the guy in right. That would have been a homer in Yankee Stadium.

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  25. Gotta find out what’s up with George. He’s like 3 for his last 42 at bats. A rare off night for Justin tonight, but I’ll take a pitcher giving up 4 runs any day of the week. The move to let Harris go back out for a 2nd inning will be on Hinch. Harris has been trying to work through some rough patches, and letting him go back out there for a high leverage inning, is a recipe for disaster. Charlie takes the ball tomorrow, let’s hope he doesn’t hit anybody and doesn’t walk guys all, over the place. Seattle won tonight.
    I didn’t pick up my tablet until late this afternoon, but I wanted to tell the good doctor I sat down immediately and said a prayer for him🙏 Surgery is hard on us older folks, I hope his hip surgery is a success, and he’s up and moving very soon! So doc, if you’re reading you have another warrior praying for you!

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    • Something wrong with George and Correa. Too much trying to look for the pitch to unload on. Sometimes a bloop single will do the trick. Maybe they just aren’t seeing the ball well. And yes JV had an “off” day. Sometimes, three fastballs in a row is not the best route to take when he also has a pretty good curve ball and a nasty slider. How many times have our guys hit home runs when the pitcher came back with the same pitch?

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    • Becky: Thanks for your concern and prayers. I sailed through the surgery in good shape and have been up and walking with a walker a couple of times today and if all goes well I’ll go home this afternoon or evening. Now I have to get strong enough to climb the stadium steps.

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  27. We lost a giant of a man last week, and I wanted to share a warm and loving tribute to him. Charles KRAUTHAMMER passed away from cancer. His greatest love was his Washington Nationals basebal, team. He went to every home game he could for MANY years. He was paralyzed from his neck down, but had a van fully equipped to accommodate his wheel chair, and drove himself to the ball park every evening. He was a great American, and his story is awesome. The day he passed away the Nationals held a moment of silence before their game, with his picture on the jumbo tron. Just a life long fan of baseball, like all of us.
    You never know who you touch in life, baseball was his true love…and his favorite team showed him they loved him back. Thank you Nat’s…pure class.⚾

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    • In a world of squeaky wheels and over the top rhetoric, Krauthammer was a solid reasoned intellect, who was conservative, but would take both sides to task when needed. A super intelligent voice was silenced and as you stated – a super baseball fan.

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      • Krauthammer stated that “atheism is the least plausible of all theologies. I mean, there are a lot of wild ones out there, but the one that clearly runs so contrary to what is possible, is atheism.” Harking back to Hawking.

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  28. One thing to note on your topic here. While the teams we’re playing here are all below .500, it really means absolutely nothing. If anything the pressure is on us because we’re expected to win. They can play footloose and fancy free just looking to play good baseball and get a win. We on the other hand are trying to pull away from Seattle and achieve the best record in the AL. Not all of these teams are going to make the same mental mistakes we saw KC do. So lets relax, stay focused and play some winning baseball.

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  29. hmm posted but it didnt show. ill try again. i have never seen a ball not come down. seem em hit the roof but never one not come down. video on the astros home site

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  31. Our starting pitching started out the year fantastic, but as the summer wears on everyone has slumped a little. All of their ERAs, WHIPs, and BAAs are creeping upward. Walks are suddenly killing us – except Keuchel, who is skyrocketing up in hits allowed. Even in a slump, our starting pitching is still pretty darn good – but times in the season like this are when that vaunted offense really needs to shine and give our starters some cover. Jose’, Alex, Yuli, Tony, and Max have answered the call pretty well. George? Carlos? Evan? Marwin? Jake [spit]? Not so much so far. And that is why we don’t have the best record in the AL.

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    • Mr. Bill, we had to know the rotation could not keep up the same pace. But the hitting could not keep being so bad. Time for the bats to turn it up and carry the club for awhile. Our starters deserve a few laughers, some low pressure games.

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  32. drbill, glad to hear the good news, was waiting on the outcome. If you go back to the previous post, you’ll see a chipacluster on your side. Nothing like going home and hope you get to.

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    • And Dr Bill – I hope when you get back to the stadium – you will stop opposing fielders from pulling our game tying HRs out of the fans hands….

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      • Oh, I get it now, Dan. I heard the music from “Rocky” when he said that, but “stadium,” not Philly Art Museum. Duhhh.

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  33. Okay – I complained about the umpiring last night, but tonight they just showed a nice feature on the umps going to visit young hospital patients at Memorial Herman, so I am going to give them all big thumbs up.

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  37. Springer finally gets a hit – a double and Bregman follows with another homer – up 7-0 – I guess Giles can pitch the 9th now.

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  38. Mr. Bill, I’m feelin your post on the rotation & lineup. It’s time the lineup show the rotation some love after the phenomenal job they’ve done with 3 wks before the ASB. CC’s expressed 2018 goal was MVP considerations, time to pick it up & keep it up. GS just broke an 0-20 with a dbl (omg, Bregman homers!). Oh well, so much for this post, lol

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  40. Pretty good ball game tonight. A win tomorrow gives us a 6-3 homestand. Not bad, especially when both George and Marwin are in the middle of real slumps.

    Jake will drive us crazy.

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  41. Let’s Shazammmm! Jake the Snake for him to keep it up along with some of the other bats who had been slumping, even Reddick is hitting tonight. Marvin and McCann are due next

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  42. Good win tonight – Morton as was said was in beast mode tonight. Jake along with the two hits including a HR and a walk had a 5 star catch running 100+ feet and leaping against the fence. Bregman hot and they threw 12 straight balls to Altuve and he took them.

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  43. 13 strikeouts!!Are you kidding me!!! The REAL Charlie Morton showed up tonight! Bregman is just a *DUDE* he flirted with homeruns all night! Finally got it out! Jake just got lucky…..he will revert back to being Jake tomorrow.
    AN awesome game for Charlie!! Keuchel pitches tomorrow….think good thoughts!

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      • I’ve been scanned and poked to death the,last two months. I will have another PET scan the end of July. Still not feeling well, and that might be the way I spend the rest of my life. Tanner just did FANTASTIC after his surgery! Went back to life as normal for a teenager! Normal is his phone and his play station video games, which I despise. Thank you for checking in on us! It’s been a hard two and a half years for me. I’m thankful for all the blessings our Lord has given me…..and this blog has been such a big part of my life for many years!
        We *ALL* owe you so much for always keeping this blog thinking! Who would have thought when we got kicked to the curb, and we were in the AL that just a few years later we would live long enough to see our guys win the World Series!
        Thank you for everything you do for US!! Becky❤⚾

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      • Becky, that’s great news about Tanner. Sorry you aren’t feeling your best self but doesn’t mean it has to be like that the rest of the way. New day dawning!

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  50. You said it Dan, right back in it. DK needs to hold the line while the offense pecks away or takes the lead

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