Dan P’s note….I started researching and writing this post before the SF series, so some of this may seem a bit out of date as life has slowed my writing down the last few days. Still I discovered some things that confirmed what I thought and others that surprised me in putting this post together.
The Astros had a historically good offense in 2017 (First in majors with 5.53 runs/gm, .282 BA, .346 OBP and .823 OPS). So far in 2018 they have a historically meh offense (4.73 runs/gm [8th in majors], .257 BA [8th], .330 OBP [7th] and .743 OPS [9th]). It’s not a bad offense but after having a finely tuned engine running on 8 of 9 cylinders last season, they have been living with a much more sporadic offense that struggles to turn the lineup over and one that swings from flood to drought in runs scored.
Today we will look at the Astros 2017 vs their 2018 from a number of different perspectives.
Bring ’em home
The eye test tells us that this version of the team is much worse at hitting with runners on second and/or third base. The truth is not quite that simple.
The team was very good in hitting with RISP in 2017. They scored a league first 653 runs, while hitting a Springer-esque .294 BA/.360 OBP/ .841 OPS. But surprisingly they are 3rd in the AL in runs scored with RISP in 2018 with 163 runs. However, when you look at RISP with two outs, the Astros were tremendous in 2017 (First with 290 runs scored and hitting a .282/.380/.811 slash). But they are bad with RISP and two outs in 2018 as they’ve scored 48 runs (12th in the AL) and are hitting a crummy .194 BA/.296 OBP/.610 OPS slash in those situations in 2018. That is like replacing George Springer with Derek Fisher.
The Astros do a good job with runners in scoring position…..until there are two out. However, doesn’t it seem like every time that situation arose, Jake Marisnick or Fisher were coming to bat?
Scoring Early / Scoring Late
The gut test is pretty accurate when it comes to when the Astros score runs in 2018. It feels like they are always playing a 0-0 game in the 6th inning, which was not the case in their championship season. In 2017, the Astros scored the 2nd most runs between the 1st and 6th innings in the AL. And to top the cherry they scored the most runs in the AL from the 7th inning onward.
In 2018, they continue to shine late as they have scored 85 runs (1st in the AL) from the 7th inning onward. However…..as our gut tells us they have only scored 136 runs from the 1st thru 6th innings which is tied for the 11th worst in the league.
If the team did not have the best starting pitching in the universe they would be in a deep hole in many of their games, but luckily they do have that luxury, so far.
Home Field Advantage – Not
The Astros in 2018 are in a deep funk hitting at home as compared to the road even deeper than in 2017. On the road, they are second in the AL in runs scored (125), BA (.277) and OPS (.794). At home they are not so good. They are 8th in runs scored (96 runs), 13th in BA (.231) and 15th in OPS (.681). That is almost inexplicable.
Regression, thou art a heartless witch
Before the season three hitters who had career years in 2017 were tagged as the most likely to regress to or below the middle.
- Marwin Gonzalez – In 2017, MarGo set career marks in Runs scored, hits, HRs, RBIs, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. In 2018, he is looking bad with a .225 BA/ .648 OPS and is on pace to fall well below all the marks he set last season.
- Josh Reddick – Josh’s .314 BA/ .363 OBP / .847 OPS were the best of his very solid career. This season these numbers have fallen hard to .227/.331/.740.
- Jake Marisnick – Considering he only had 230 ABs in 2017, Jake’s huge numbers for about 1/3 a season of ABs of 50 runs, 16 HRs and 35 RBIs gave folks visions of a bat turning around. In 2018, his microscopic .141 BA/.151 OBP/ .434 OPS slash made everyone think those visions were hallucinations.
Power Outage
Jose Altuve hit 24 HRs in 2017 – this season he is on pace for 7 HRs
Yuli Gurriel hit 18 in 2017 – on pace for 3 in 2018
Alex Bregman had 19 and now is on pace for 13
Marwin. 23 HRs and now on pace for 13 HRs
Marisnick. 16 HRs and now on pace for 10
McCann. 18 HRs and now on pace for 13 HRs
Even Springer had 34 and is on pace for only 30
Of course that is not the only way to score runs but this team was solid in this category last season.
Questions for you….
- How much of this is normal regression?
- How much is long season hangover?
- How much is other teams getting more data, film, word of mouth on the hitters?
- Do you think bringing up folks like Tony Kemp and J.D. Davis is the answer?
- When do you think they will consider bringing up Kyle Tucker, currently hitting .290 BA/.359 OBP/ .803 OPS at AAA?
CHIPALATTA 
1. I would like Tucker to not be brought up this season. Let him mature at Fresno this year, but certainly reward players like J.D.Davis with a long opportunity to hit MLB pitiching.
2. I have always liked what Kemp brings. He is not a whiff machine and if given the opportunity long term, I think we will have a steady .260-300 singles/doubles machine that plays adequate defense. Not on the level of Marisnick for defense, but he is not a strikeout liability like jake. I am disapointed in Fisher, and would rather have Kemp and Davis here.
3. Do we have to keep Sipp here? Don’t we have somebody that could provide more value for us?
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When is Correa officially reporting to camp?
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We just witnessed two offensive woes, CC with the bat glued to his shoulder taking strikes and Bregman caught stealing again, both rally killers
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Well at least CC redeems himself later with two hits including an RBI single. Bregman seems to be having a year like Altuve did earlier in his career where he was hitting pretty well, but running pretty dumb.
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Oh crap now we need to score 2 to win.
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A Springer Dinger!
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CC reverse jinks works (-;, for a day.
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Good team win as the Astros get just enough offense to allow Verlander to get his 6th win.
I’m not sure if we can afford such a substandard start from JV as he let his ERA go from 1.05 to 1.08. Before you know it he will be knocking on 1.20 or 1.30.
Kemp did not have a hit, but he walked twice and scored in front of the Springer Dinger.
Apparently Giles hitting himself in the head has knocked the crap out from between his ears and he picks up another save.
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His walk total appears to be down . Maybe the earlier struggles were just him finally learning how to pitch…
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-I believe that George Springer would have gotten to the triple that went over Kemp’s head. I would have had Springer in CF, Kemp in LF and Marwin in RF with the players available today.
-Is it me or did McCutchen have problems in both games seeing the ball in RF?
-To me, the reason the Astros were able to win that game today was the fact they only struck out two times. In past games they were striking out in critical situations and today they got the bats on the ball, when they weren’t walking.
-Verlander had command issues with his fastball. He couldn’t put it where he wanted it, but his breaking ball came through enough times against a team that doesn’t hit very well.
-Smartdza-Whatever died a little bit when Springer hit that fastball. He just knew he had Springer set up after nearly hitting Springer three or four times earlier.
-Poor Marwin is back to being Marwin.
– It seemed like Altuve was showing the rest of the team how to steal a base today. What a jump he had! And wasn’t that steal immediately followed by a Correa RBI single?
– The hit Giles gave up was a hand shaker in on the fists that bounced five times before Springer picked it up. Bregman blew a DP ball on the next batter when he boxed the ball around and got one out at first.
-Couldn’t believe Buster Posey didn’t run all out on the slow roller he hit to SS. Two years ago he would have beaten that out for a hit. The Giants are going through the motions.
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Yeah, once again, our center fielder is back in right. Both Kemp and Davis have gotten on base, but let’s face it, both guys are not great defenders. Kemp makes a big play on occasion, but he also is not great at reading where the ball is going. Davis will prove to be more challenged out in left.
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I noticed something today with Altuve. He hit a dribbler to the 3rd base side of the mound and didn’t run hard to first. Maybe nothing but he always seems to hustle to first no matter what. Just didn’t seem like typical Jose. All the guys could take plate discipline lessons from Bregman, Kemp, or now even Davis. They’ll get a lot more quality pitches to hit.
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Identifying the Astros offensive woes:
1. Springer is the Astro performing at last year’s level but has had few runners on base from the #8 and #9 slot.
2. Bregman started off exactly like he started off last season, but is finally warming up and the BABIP is finally reversing itself.
3. Altuve has swung at too many pitches that are impossible to barrel up.
4. Correa is bass ackwards. Swings at bad pitches and watches good ones.
5. Yuli is getting pitches on the four corners of the strike zone and has not hit those as hard as he hit mistakes last season. Correa’s struggles in front of him are allowing pitchers to pitch on the black to Yuli. Yuli’s patience, which he found late last year, has been lost again.
6. Marwin is seeing so many breaking balls down, which he cannot hit, that he is behind on almost every fastball he does get.
7. Evan Gattis cannot handle the pressure of the DH and is wound up like a 1950’s golf ball. When he’s not swinging, he’s check-swinging. He has absolutely no rhythm, which is why he cannot stop himself from starting his swing at every pitch, no matter where it is located.
8. Fisher/Marisnick cannot recognize pitches out of a pitchers hand. It is a guessing game to them at the plate. They guess right approximately 18% of the time.
9. McCann/Stassi were hitting when nobody else was and are now coming back to their norms.
10. Reddick hit too many home runs early and was trying to hit them all the time. When he tried to slow himself down he slowed his swing down and now is having a hard time getting out in front and pulling the ball. He’s hitting a lot of balls in the air to CF.
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“9. McCann/Stassi were hitting when nobody else was and are now coming back to their norms.”
Stassi is batting .299./.373/.895 so I hope this actually *is* his norm!
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You almost got me there. I really do mean they are coming back to their norms. I didn’t say they had arrived at their norms yet.
On April 15th Stassi was hitting .304. On May 1st, he was hitting .244.
On May 15th he was hitting. 290. He is hot, but when the Astros were cold in the second half of April, he was cold, too.
McCann was hitting .359 on April 20th. He was hitting .254 by May the 2nd and is hitting .248 right now. That is returning to the norm.
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I have a bit more confidence in Stassi at this point than McCann, who is hitting about like he did last year, and has appeared to be in a bit of a decline. Stassi is hitting the ball hard even when he makes an out. Of course, his numbers are skewed by him absolutely murdering LHP and struggling against RHP. But…nobody else on the team seems to be hitting LHP so your mileage may vary
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BC, not to throw cold water because I do hope that Stassi can keep it up, but his BABIP is .415 which is difficult to maintain.
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And yet – somehow the team is on a pace to win almost 104 games and I am convinced they are not playing their best ball yet.
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You did name this post “Identifying Astros offensive woes”. I am trying to do that. I believe if the Astros come out of their offensive slump , they could be truly elite and one of the best baseball teams in history.
I am waiting for them to play their best, too. It starts with Altuve, and these next seven games on the road against big time teams is a great place for him to get “Altuve hot”, which we have seen him do over and over the last five years.
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Oh I agree with you, op – you hit most of their hitting problems right on the head though I do agree with Billy C that I will take this norm from the catchers.
It is fascinating that in the last month they have gone from 9 games over .500 to 14 game over .500 without winning more than 3 games in a row. That is tough. That means they have been very steadily creeping up the ladder. If they go on an eight or ten game tear they may pull away.
And I really do miss last year’s Altuve – more patient and whacking his pitch solidly some where. Weird to complain about someone hitting over .300, but this is the guy who hit 3 HRs in the first playoff game of 2017 and he has only hit 2 HRs in the first 50 games of 2018. I keep thinking that at some point we will find out about a sore wrist or a bad back or something with him. Or maybe he will just take off on one of those tears that only he can do.
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My point about the catchers is that when their BA drops about 50-100 points, it means that during that particular drop they are hitting around .150 for 2 or 3 weeks, and that is an offensive woe for that period.
Add up three or four offensive woes happening in a lineup in a particular time frame and you have losses that are happening because of those woes and the team cannot extend innings like they do when they have only a couple of woes.
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Dan-
Altuve may just be trying too hard because he wants to do well to justify his contract.
Team seems to lose 1, then win 3, then lose 1, then win 2, and repeat. S0 no big winning streak, but that is still a high clip (5 out 7 is a .714 clip=115 wins). Even “just” 2 out of 3 games leads to 108 wins. If we were hitting even remotely at career levels, we’d be…yikes…kind of scary to think about how good this team actually is!
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At my age, I should never trust my memory, but here goes. From memory, in 2017, there were several balls games won in the very late innings by people not named Altuve, Correa, or Springer. We got unexpected production from the bottom of the line up. Almost like wishing for a hit or home run and it magically happened.
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http://houston.astros.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=hou#playerType=ALL&elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2018&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'§ionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1527130829873
Not sure if this will work, but you can go to the MLB Astros home page and then click Stats.
With runners in scoring position in 2017. there were 10 hitters, batting over .300. Margo, CC, Gattis, Altuve, Reddick, Yuli, and 4 with a few ABs. This year, Altuve, Yuli, Stassi, Bregman and 2 with few ABs – so far.
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Because JFSF was called back up is he now out of options? And Tony Kemp is doing what was expected and more. No he doesn’t hit for power but I’ll take those singles and doubles any day and twice on Thursday. JD Davis needs to DH instead of Gattis. When all are off the DL they’ll send him back down with us never knowing what he could have done. Time to find out if he can hit MLB pitching.
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I think the options are used once per year. Like if someone is put down today, that uses their “option” for the year. They can be sent down and called back up as many times that year.
At one point it wasn’t like that, but it changed some years ago. I don’t know if it’ changed back, though.
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It appears that once again, BC, you are on top of it. We should never doubt you.
https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2011/9/3/2400914/mlb-roster-rules-25-man-roster
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I don’t know when the rules changed exactly. I do remember it wasn’t the case in the 90s, as I distinctly remembering Ray Montgomery using up all his options in a year and being quite upset /angry, at least according to the Chronicle back then. Maybe I’m incorrect and he had been optioned twice and the last one triggered it, but I do know the rules were different back then.
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Jake had two option years left and this is one of them. Billy is right when he says Jake can be sent down multiple times in a year with the result being he would still have another option year remaining.
The problem with Jake is that he has negative WAR and his salary will go up from $2 million again next season because its arbitration year 3 for him and players salaries never go down in arbitration. When do you say enough is enough and you move on with a fourth outfielder from out of your system who needs to be brought up for one sixth of Jake’s salary.
Right now, I’m thinking about how Jake crowded out Teoscar and now Teoscar is making Jake look bad. Who else are the Astros going to give away while Jake keeps striking out as a fourth outfielder?
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Forrest Whitley injured himself pitching in Palm Beach at extended spring training and won’t be ready to pitch until sometime in June.
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Ouch. Fortunately, so far quality starting pitching has not been all that big a problem for us this year at any level. At Corpus, where he is expected to land, we have:
Cionel Perez, 4-1, .187 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 37 SOs in 33.2 IP;
Ryan Hartman, 4-1, 1.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 49 SOs in 41.1 IP; and
Brock Dykxhoorn, 2-0, 3.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 31 SOs in 37 IP.
While Yoanys Quiala, Framber Valdez, and Akeem Bostick have not started the year nearly as well, we expect better from them, and I think we all expect Corbin Martin to join Perez and Hartman as co-aces as soon as he adjusts to the higher level.
Take your time and heal well, Forrest! The Hooks are still 27-19 and just two games behind the high-flying San Antonio Missions without you!
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This might be a good thing. Bear with me on this – if Whitley came back and set the minors on fire every team would be asking for him in a trade. Luhnow might be feeling vindictive (based on his comments at the time of the suspension) and decide it’s time to move Whitley for an outfield bat. There’s your silver lining.
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Anyone else notice Giles has yet to walk someone?
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I have but a couple of things to notice on Giles. I believe his fastball has lost velocity, probably because he’s sacrificing speed for accuracy. Secondly his slider seems more under control. He threw some good ones yesterday for strikes. When he can do that he’ll be almost un-hittable. Obviously somebody’s working to get his mojo back. He throws a little more contact than I like but thus far has not suffered because of it. Let’s hope he continues to perform.
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OP mentioned earlier that George would have gotten to the ball that was hit over Kemp’s head. I was thinking the same thing until Blum said George was in right field because Kemp doesn’t have the arm to throw from right.
Seems reasonable but yet puts center field in jeopardy.
Sure wish we had three outfielders that could hit and play good defense at the same time.
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One day soon, if all goes as planned, we will have KTuck patrolling right field, and Springer can return to and reign in center. In the meantime, we only have a few more games to play with this emergency configuration of outfielders before Josh Reddick returns from the DL. At least we don’t have a total liability out there like we did when Carlos Gomez was our CF.
Meanwhile, the offensive spark Kemp has provided has more than made up for one less than perfect route in his new park.
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One of the reasons I was wondering about Altuve’s physical state is his SB numbers. He has 4, so far, which figures out to about 13 for the year.
This is a guy who averages 37 SBs per 162 games and has finished the last three seasons with 38, 30 and 32.
He does not seem to be beating out as many infield singles and Zanuda was noting how he was not running hard to first on a dribbler yesterday.
May not be anything, or it may be someone who is playing through some kind of tweaky leg injury. Nothing that will shut him down, but something that might slow him down.
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I just can’t bring myself to focus on woes today. Maybe after the weekend?
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Dave, I see you have you been to lake Woe-be-gone again.
P.S. That is what I call my liquor cabinet.
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I’ll provide a tale of woe if we don’t score enough to win at least a couple of contests this weekend. Jake getting a start might be the first tale of woe.
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Jake should not get starts. Starting Jake should disqualify Hinch from any manager of the year competitions.
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Has anyone looked at Francis Martes’ stats this year [before he was put on the 7-day DL for ‘elbow discomfort’]?
6.75 ERA; 2.25 WHIP; and in 18.2 innings pitched he walked 17 [yes, SEVENTEEN] and struck out only 16.
Really injured (despite negative MRI)? Working on something? Trying out the keto diet? Or just completely forgot how to throw strikes?
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Jake is the starting center fielder for us tonight 😦
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Dookie bombs. Hopefully now that I’ve said that he’ll go 3-4.
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Looks like you might be right!
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Brock Dykxshoorn just got the call to Fresno – to start tonight’s game for the Grizzlies. This should be . . . well . . . interesting.
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Clevinger is making our best hitters look like starry-eyed minor leaguers so far.
Salty had better be bringing it.
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Man, does Clevinger have Altuve’s number or what?
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I am responsible for Jake hitting the three run shot because I thought his start was dookie bombs.
I had similar concerns the other night when Kemp got to nod in center and ended up knocking in 5.
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There is only one person allowed on this site to make predictions after the game. And sorry to say, its not you.
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Brilliant move by AJ allowing Stassi to deal. Jake actually looked like he learned something while down, props on that HR. Guys bustin loose so I can stop biting my nails, lol
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This is fun
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And got to give the boys credit for making Cleptoheimer throw 105 pitches over just 16 outs. One last nod to the skipper for pulling his catcher and bringing in our lefty pitcher hitting expert so early.
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Baseball is a nutty business as the guy who has looked useless has 2 hits including a 3 run homer. So maybe we are entering the part of the season where the hitters start carrying this team?
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Those were two absolutely terrible at bats by CC and Yuli. OP, you got my vote as an advisor to Hudgens, some of the guys need fixin at the plate, lol.
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Last two games JV and Morton having fast ball command issues but made the adjustments to limit the other guys to two runs. Glad to see the bats lend support
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Kemp wants a job. PERIOD. He has shown time and time again, he will go through a wall to get to a ball….just like George does. Today started out like so many before this season, until Bregman connected for a 3 run homerun.
THEN the fun began, when Jake came up he saw a fast ball, then another fast ball, but he didn’t miss that 3rd one! One of the things that confuses me, is after they have a big inning, they lose focus on trying to tack on. I will say it till you get tired of me posting it, but SITUATIONAL HITTING is killing this team.
Trust me you will see Jake in center again tomorrow. Charlie didn’t have his best stuff today, but he didn’t have to after he got a 6 run lead. Charlie hasn’t lost a game this year…..he’s 7-0!!!!
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I was so wrong on the Morton signing last year…and I’m so happy to admit it.
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Back on the sixteenth of May I pointed out the Astros tough shedule from then through June 3rd and said if they could play .500 ball through June 3rd that they had two months where they might rake after that.
Since then, the Astros are 6-1.
I am in awe of how they played tonight. How Morton hung in there after that rough third inning. How cool McHugh looked out there in relief. How Jake hit a ball over the CF fence. How great they play on the road.
This felt a lot like 2017.
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Yes, a very well played start. With Verlander on deck?
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Sorry dave b it is Keuchel on deck, followed by LMJ and Cole – still – they have a chance every night
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He only said that to see if you were paying attention, DanP.
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Oh yeah, well it’s apparent that I can’t keep up with a five man rotation. Please, no further tak about a six man.
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It’s killing this team (woe that is!), but Jose and his buddy are still not yet hitting and the club is 33 and 18 regardless.
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Whoa!
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Corbin Martin got the start for Corpus Christi tonight and was amazing.
7.2 innings, two hits allowed, no runs, no walks, 9 strikeouts.
As has been the case a number of times this season, the CC bullpen could not hold the line and CC loses 4-0 in 10 innings.
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Hey, what the Houston Astro bulllpen?
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I like that offense turning around now that I called them out…..
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Stassi and Kemp have been key. Kemp has been the spark plug, a real shot in the @$$. Stassi has been hitting, but it has been his defense and his mentality that has really shown to me.
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Eric Carmen’s possible take on the recent Astro offensive surge:
Dealing! Our 5 thru 9 are dealing!
Helping us forget those . . . offensive ‘woes’.
Kemping! Stassi-ing and Jake-ing!
While CC’s first-pitch taking; and Jose’s getting hosed.
Dealing! Woe! Woe! Woe! Dealing!
Woe! Woe! Woe! Feeling ’17 again!
Dealing! Dealing walks and hits and home runs.
And dealing stolen bases – man ain’t this fun!
Dealing! Woe! Woe! Woe! Dealing!
Woe! Woe! Woe! Dealing! May we never lose again!
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Or perhaps it was Morris Albert’s take instead.
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I walked out into the pasture yesterday and approached our horse. He is a thoroughbred who was not treated well by someone long ago and is very skittish around men.
As usual, he wouldn’t let me near him but I was able to go back around him and get a real good look at his hind quarters. They looked like Trevor Bauer.
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Oh, no you didn’t.
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Oh, yes I did and now I know how a pitcher produces horse dookie.
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That was a low blow, op. I like it.
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The Yankees and Red Sox compete in just about everything. Today they are competing in DFA-ing former big-name players. The BoSox started it by DFA-ing Hanley Ramirez; the Pinstripes countered immediately by DFA-ing Adam Lind.
Somebody let the Indians they need to get in this competition. How about doubling down, and DFA-ing both Corey Kluber and Edwin Encarnacion before tonight’s game?
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The trade market is going to open up soon. This year’s likely ‘sellers’ include: the Royals, the White Sox, the Orioles, the Marlins, the Reds, the Rangers, and maybe the Padres.
Are there any present players you think we need on those teams more than we need one or more of the following:
– Jake Marisnick
– Evan Gattis
– Tony Kemp
– Derek Fisher
– Tyler White
– J.D. Davis
– A.J. Reed
– Drew Ferguson
– Randy Cesar
– David Paulino
– Francis Martes
– James Hoyt
– Brock Dykxshoorn
– Akeem Bostick
– etc. etc. etc.?
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How about Royals’ reliever/closer Kelvin Herrera [RH] – 0.96 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, NO walks and 17 Ks in 18.1 innings. He’s 10 of 11 in saves. He’s in his walk year, however, so it would just be a rental.
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And, of course, lefty reliever Zach Britton [from Weatherford, TX], on the DL all year with a ruptured achilles tendon, is scheduled to return to the mound in June. He’s getting $12M in 2018 – and, like Herrera, will walk next year.
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He is definitely one I would consider. It depends on how our bullpen is looking in July. Remember that at least one of our rotation guys is going to the bullpen if we make the playoffs.
A rental reliever is less expensive than one who has a multiyear deal.
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Also to the liking of many is the Padres’ lefty reliever Brad Hand. He’s sporting a 2.08 ERA and a 1.115 WHIP this year, with 38 Ks [great] and 13 BBs [not great] in 26 IP for San Diego this year. He’s got two more years on a contract [about $4.4M total this year, going up substantially each year for the next two].
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If the playoffs were tomorrow, and we were ‘in’, I am assuming the Astros’ playoff rotation would be Verlander, Cole & Morton. That would move McCullers and Keuchel to the bullpen, along with Devenski, Giles, Peacock, McHugh, Harris, and maybe Rondon. Do we want Smith? Sipp? to round out the bullpen roster against the league’s best – or could we do better?
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Yes to Smith, no to Sipp.
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There is also some scuttlebutt this morning that the Blue Jays may be in a selling mood.
I think it might come down to the deadline to see if the Astros are interested in someone.
I think Tony Kemp’s at bats will tell us if the Astros would be in the market for a LH hitting DH addition. He definitely has stirred the pot. The one thing to remember about Kemp is that the top teams we will face in the playoffs will all have good outfields and Kemp’s lack of power will pull those guys in, making his area to hit much smaller. In AAA they play him deeper because their outfields are not major league caliber and that gives his hits more room to fall in. When his line drives are right at a shallower outfielder, they will get caught instead of falling in.
A return of Reddick’s bat and a spurt by Gurriel might keep the Astros from feeling as though they need to add another bat.
Rondon and Smith will definitely determine the Astros need for another bullpen arm. Not only because of their own performances, but also because of how often they would save Giles from having too many appearances, thus allowing him to be fresher for October.
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Wild card bullpen strengthening possibilities from within the system?
Tier 1 [unlikely, but if excellent the rest of May and into June]:
– David Paulino, Rogelio Armenteros, James Hoyt, Trent Thornton, Reymin Guduan, or even Josh James
Tier 2 [pipe dream, but fun to talk about]:
– Cionel Perez, Forrest Whitely, Corbin Martin, or Ryan Hartman
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Kemp has been of huge impact so far, in a very small sample, especially when compared to Fisher. But I agree OP. He’s here as long as he produces. Fisher had his chance. But Tony has to continue to hit or at least produce a pretty good OBP. The other thing is that he does not know ML ball parks very well from a defensive standpoint. But I don’t think he’s very good in the outfield regardless. He flies all over the place, banging into things, has a tendency to overrun balls, but never makes a play look easy. That’s what I want to see.
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I would be fine with opposing outfielders ‘shallowing’ up on Tony Kemp. He might not hit many out of the park, but he’ll drive a lot of balls to the wall. If he gets it over their heads, just watch him run!!!!!
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I’m going to disagree about Tony Kemp at this point. He’s doing something in the #9 hole that has been lacking all season; getting on base, driving in runs and turning the order over. He also has not yet made an error. I guess you’d rather have Fisher or Marisnick at that spot. Sure he can’t hit for power but we got others who can do that and did I mention he also steals bases?
Also I’m not sure what you meant by the AAA outfields not being “Major League” caliber. I just checked the dimensions of 11 AAA ball parks and they are right in line with the average of the MLB parks (as are the AA and A parks). Some of the distances in the gaps are greater than most MLB parks. And in today’s era of saber-metrics, shifts, and what-not, I don’t believe that the size of the playing field has all that much to do about how a hitter is played.
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Zanuda, you already know how I feel about The Fish and Jake. But go ahead and get on that OP guy. He’s always creating some sort of controversy. Peace out. No woes.
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Anyone interested in any of the following for DH [or in some cases, DH/OF]:
– Alex Gordon
-John Jay
-Mike Moustakis
-Eric Hosmer
– JR Realmuto
– Mark Trumbo
– Trey Mancini
– Shin Soo-Choo
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Gordon is a disaster. Too much salary.
Jay probably doesn’t give them any more than Kemp would.
Moustakas would be a consideration for me because he is a LH bat, is a rental, is not a K machine, has playoff experience, has power and is a good clubhouse guy. He would cost a pretty good prospect.
Hosmer-no
Realmuto is too expensive, IMO.
Trumbo is a no for me.
Mancini would probably be around for an Orioles rebuild because he’s 26.
Choo- fuget aboudit!
But, there are others.
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I’d love Jose’ Abreu, but word is he doesn’t want to leave Chi-town. Maybe he and Gurriel could connect?
Leonys Martin might be available, but his OBP numbers don’t fit our team’s model.
Denard Span? Doesn’t hit for average, but has great OBP and ‘clutch’ hitting skills, and doesn’t strike out a ton.
Or do we stay in the organization, and come July promote and give a chance to:
– Tyler White?
– J.D. Davis?
– Yordan Alvarez?
– Drew Ferguson?
– KTuck? or
– Myles Straw? [who also brings the speed we will need in the playoffs].
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Here’s what I would do. Go with what we have to get us through June 3rd.
Then use the rest of June to see if Gattis, Marwin, Yuli and Reddick heat up against the likes of(each series in order through July 1st):
Mariners
Rangers
A’s
Royals
Rays
Royals
Blue Jays
Rays
At that point I would take a hard look at where the Astros are in the standings vs where they hoped they would be and I would especially look at where Oakland is in the standings because of Jed Lowrie and his availability to finish out his walk year as a switch hitting DH for us.
So far this season Lowrie is one of the best hitters in baseball. History says he can’t keep it up. But, could he be a productive DH for us for the rest of the season and playoffs, or would being a DH set him up for failure because of his temper. He is such a battler.
In early July the Astros start with these series:
Rangers
White Sox
Athletics
Tigers
Angels
Rockies
Rangers
Mariners.
By the last week of July the Astros will know if they are in a dogfight for the division, or whether to start setting up for post season play.
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The Mariners did not wait around. Two trades for them today. They beefed up their offense with Denard Span and their bullpen with Alex Colome.
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That appears to be a good trade for both teams.
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I think Altuve needs a day off – or two. Man his at bats are looking ugly.
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I was hoping for an ace type performance from our former ace tonight. I think we all need to temper those hopes at this point.
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accolades for DK getting out of a jam
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Yes, a nice Houdini act.
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No magic this inning
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That was a beautiful bunt.
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Bases loaded one out…..and ground in a double play. I will say it again…….
SITUATIONAL HITTING IS KILLING THIS TEAM😠!!!!
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Oh the woe! They are killing us! Just killing us! I’m melting!
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