Astros and Yankees: 10 quick thoughts

Tonight the Yanks and Astros pick up where they left off as seventh game ALCS starter Charlie Morton takes the mound against the red-hot Yankees. This time Morton is not backed by Lance McCullers Jr., who will not enter the game (we assume) and throw 200 curve balls in a row.

But let’s get to the meat here… Ten quick thoughts about this series.

  1. How Much Does It Matter. All baseball eyes will be on these two teams that were expected to duke it out for AL superiority this season (along with the Red Sox and Indians). So far they both trail the high-flying Red Sox (20-7) but that gap has been closing and both teams come in 2 GB of the Sox. In the long view these 4 games may not mean that much, but with some of the off-season gabbing about which is the team to beat, bragging rights will probably feel good if one team dominates the other.
  2. What about that Yankees offense vs. the Astros offense. The Yanks’ offense is where the Astros ended up last season. They are 1st in runs/game (6.04), HR (41), BB (123), OBP (.346) and OPS (.811) in the AL. They have the players with the 1st (Didi Gregorious – 30) and fifth (Gary Sanchez – 24) most RBIs in the AL and the scary thing is neither of them is named Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Slowing them down is a key. The Astros’ offense has been a bit inconsistent and has a few more holes to date than last season. George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa lead the offense along with the two-headed catching giant of Brian McCann and Max Stassi. Marwin Gonzalez and Alex Bregman are beginning to warm up, while Yuli Gurriel is playing like someone who got a late start to the season.
  3. How about the Astros pitching vs. the Yanks’ pitching. In a strength on strength battle vs. the Yanks’ offense, the Astros have had superb starting pitching and despite the fans’ misgivings, one of the better bullpens in the league. The Astros have the 2nd best bullpen ERA in the AL at 2.80 and have only allowed 2 of 19 inherited runners to score – best % in the AL. The Astros’ starters lead the AL in ERA (2.50), WHIP (1.01), Ks (216) and IP (180.1). The Yanks have been good this season, not in the Astros stratosphere, but solid and have been especially strong during this 9 game winning streak, only allowing 2 runs per game.
  4. What about momentum. The Yanks are the hottest team in the majors right now, riding a 9 game winning streak, including a 4 game sweep of the Twins at home, and a three-game sweep of the Angels in Anaheim. The Astros have won 9 of their last 12, but did lose two to those same Angels last week. But everyone knows momentum sometimes can disappear in a day.
  5. Can the Astros control Didi. In the seven-game ALCS, Gregrious had a very quiet no HR and one RBI. Coming into this series, he has 4 HR and 10 RBIs in his last 7 games and is tied for the MLB lead in HRs (10) and is all by himself in RBIs (30) on the season.
  6. Pitching Matchups
    1. Sonny Gray 1-1, 7.71 ERA vs. Charlie Morton 3-0, 1.86 ERA – Advantage Astros
    2. Jordan Montgomery 2-0, 3.76 ERA vs. Justin Verlander 4-0, 1.36 ERA – Advantage Astros
    3. Luis Severino 4-1, 2.61 ERA vs. Dallas Keuchel 1-4, 4.00 ERA – Advantage Yanks
    4. Masahiro Tanaka 4-2, 4.37 ERA vs. Lance McCullers 4-1, 3.71 ERA – Advantage Astros
  7. Home field. In the playoffs, the home team won every time.
  8. Wins and runs. The Astros are scoring 2.6 runs per game in their 10 losses. They are scoring 6.36 in their 19 wins. The Yanks are scoring 3.22 runs in their losses and 7.44 runs per game in their 18 wins.
  9. A little freaky. The Astros record is 19-10 and the Yanks are 18-9 headed into this series. Last year the Astros were 19-10 after 29 games and the Yanks were 18-9 after 27 games.
  10. What about those bullpens. The Yanks are missing the injured Tommy Kahnle, and are relying the most on Aroldis Chapman (1.50 ERA), David Robertson (3.14 ERA), Chad Green (2.08 ERA) and Chasen Shreve (0.79 ERA), while trying to straighten out Dellin Betances (5.40 ERA).  The Astros are riding Chris Devenski (0.75 ERA), Will Harris (1.69 ERA), Ken Giles (2.00 ERA), Hector Rondon (1.74), Brad Peacock (2.84 ERA) and Collin McHugh (0.84 ERA) while trying to straighten out Joe Smith (9.64 ERA).

Bottom line. This should be a great four-game series. While a 2-2 split feels right, it says here the Astros will take 3 of 4 and slow down the Yankee express.

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137 responses to “Astros and Yankees: 10 quick thoughts”

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  1. Good analysis Dan. My hope is that the Dallas Keuchel who has been a Yankee killer in the past shows up. Also happy that we miss the left handed offerings of CC but also sad that we can’t rub their noses in the fact that we won the Gerritt Cole sweepstakes. Would love to see how his high cheese stacks up against the Bombers.

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  2. Have been looking forward to this. I’m only interested in tonight’s game, because they play them one at a time.
    Last year the Astros went to NY and took 3 out of 4 when NY had the best record in baseball and were on a winning streak. Soon after, the Astros had the best record.
    I’m interested to see if the Dallas Keuchel mystique over NY holds up. He’s in their heads.

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    • That was the Derek Jeter series – they ripped them up on the day they were honoring the Captain which made me boohoo – NOT!!

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  3. I think it’s pretty cool that we’re looking at a full house (or close to it) on a Monday night in April.

    Wonder who many people who were at game seven against the Yanks last year will be there tonight? I’m guessing half anyway. If we can keep these guys in the park and score a couple early, it’ll be a lively group.

    On the flip side, back to the Friday evening broadcast: I don’t want to see the Ken and Barbie looking couple wearing his and hers Kate Update Astro shirts ever again. Anyone else see that?

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  4. It is good to be talked about as among the premier teams in the league.

    It is good to have one of the best rotations in major league history.

    It is good to have the league MVP and the WS MVP batting 1 and 2 in your line-up.

    It is good to be playing a high-profile series like this in our home ballpark.

    It will be even better if we win tonight, and set the tone for the series.

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  5. On another note, David Paulino’s shoulder is apparently ready to go, and he is being given his first start of the year tonight against the 15-9 Salt Lake Bees [an Angels affiliate].

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  6. Excepting last year, White has always been a patient hitter in the minors. We’ve seen him try to hit everything out of the park at the MLB level, but for his career he has 253 BB against 305K in the minors.

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    • Yes, I was watching, Dan, though not on computer. Right about here, I had to go to bed due to the “filth” I’m gonna be dealt today. Delighted to open paper this morning to see “Yanks’ new owner: Morton.”

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  15. Good win. Had them on the ropes and did not put them away, but what great pitching. And Giles got a big call for that second out. Not sure if he gets a strike out on that pitch in New York. We’ll take it!

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  18. I knew the Astros would win tonight. But I did not post it here because there might be some people on here wired into Las Vegas and it would have screwed up the line.

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  19. Meanwhile, in the air ball league, Kyle Tucker pushed his average up to .313 with a 3-4 night. Two of his hits were doubles. He drove in 3 of the Grizzlies’ 11 runs.

    But he did not do it alone. Tyler White only went 1-5, but his one hit was a 2-run home run – his 7th of the year. Garrett Stubbs got two more hits, raising his BA to .364. J.D. Davis chipped in two hits as well, upping his BA to .368.

    Paulino’s debut was not spotless, but he struck out 5 in 3.0 innings. He gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks. None of the hits he allowed were for extra bases. Hoyt pitched two scoreless innings to close out the game.

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    • Meanwhile, at Corpus:
      1. Myles Straw keeps hitting [present BA .361] and stealing bases [got his 14th on the year last night];
      2. Taylor Jones is still looking good [BA: .354 despite going 0-4 last night];
      3. Randy Cesar is breaking out [BA now .329, with 2 hits last night].

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  20. We need to see some of these guys to see what they can do for an extended stay at the MLB level. We sure could use a DH that can hit above 200 and an outfielder who doesn’t have a “K” rate greater than 50%.
    Great win last night. Morton is super and it looks like Giles is finally getting his head game back.

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  21. Astros face lefty Jordan Montgomery today.
    Correa has a homer in 6 ABs against him, McCann a HR in 3 ABs and Yuli a HR in 2 ABs

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  22. 11 thoughts on the Astro vs Yankees
    -Man I wish we had Kyle Tucker in this lineup.
    -Huge markups on the price of tickets limits the crowd size.
    -Astros 2017 team BA was .282. Currently .255.
    -Charlie Morton, 98 MPH?
    -I like Stanton. He got roasted by Morton and took it like a man.
    -Astros have fewest errors and highest fielding percentage in baseball and are still ranked last in advanced fielding metrics by Fangraphs. Something is dookie.
    -Gleybar Torres looks so good at 2B.
    -2 of the Astros 5 hits were multible hop grounders up the middle that Didi dove for and couldn’t get to.
    -Neil Walker is not one of those friendly first basemen we see a lot of these days.
    -Sonny Gray looks tiny on the mound, but made the pitches in critical situations last night.
    -The Yankees struck out 14 times last night and that was the difference between a loss and a win.

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    • Interesting thing about Torres in light of Cory Seager’s Tommy John surgery – Torres had TJ surgery in 2017. Looking at a list of TJ surgeries, pitchers get about 90% of them.

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    • Agreed on the fielding metrics stuff, OP. Astros are making the plays they get to, which is good. All the advanced metrics are “what if” type of stuff. With the low number of hits our pitchers are giving up, it’s not like there are a lot of those that the fielders aren’t getting that they “should” get.

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      • I have no clue as to the science of advanced metrics as it applies to the game of baseball. All I know is that our guys make fewer errors than anyone else and every one of our guys out on the field is pretty mobile. They get to balls. That said, the Astros do more shifting than anyone else. Somehow I have the feeling that the Fangraphs formula does not accurately account for this relatively newfangled extreme shifting business. I’m still coming to grips with it myself. At least I can see visually that we’ve got a heck of a defense. That formula does not have eyes.

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    • Both UZR and DRS are counting metrics that go up with increased opportunities. Both are roughly based on hit probabilities and run creating ratios. Additionally, they factor in things like DPs and Outfield assists. Meanwhile, Astros’ pitching currently ranks:
      1 in K/9
      1 in WHIP
      1 in LOB%
      2 in Limiting LD%
      3 in GB%
      3 in Limiting Hard Contact%
      5 in Soft Contact%

      Astros’ pitching is the best in baseball at keeping opposing teams from putting the ball in play, and near the top in reducing dangerous batted balls. As a result, our position players have fewer opportunities to make the kinds of plays necessary to significantly increase DRS and UZR ratings.

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      • Grayson, okay then, so the formula is flawed, no? The best defense in the league has the lowest advanced fielding metics per Fangraphs because our pitching is so good. If the formula was worth a dookie, then it would account for the best rotation in MLB. Those Fangraph guys need to get back into the nerd cave.

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  23. Hey, Mr. Bill, Bob Knepper never looked so good!

    Lowest WHIP since 1889 (1.005)
    Lowest Hits/9 since 1885 (6.5)
    Highest Ks/9 since 1885 (10.5)
    Highest Ks/BB since 1885 (4.21)

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      • Though it did raise my eyebrows when I found this business card on the sidewalk outside Minute Maid Park….

        Brent Strom
        Owner – Pine Tar Unlimited

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      • You know what they say – he who smelt it probably dealt it. I wondered why Trevor always seemed to have our number. I guess a little dab really will do ya.

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  25. Astro’s bullpen – I am guessing that Peacock [8 pitches last night – 6 of them balls], Devenski [4 pitches – all strikes], and Giles [13 pitches] are available tonight only in a pinch. This series may be to be a very important test as to how valuable Collin McHugh can be in his new bullpen role.

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  26. I read at least 20 articles from all over the country that suggested Brett Strom and the Astros might be able to help Cole get back to where he was three years ago.
    Now that it has turned out that way, Bauer has a perfect explanation for how the Astros did it.
    But, what illegal substance was Cole using when he was so good in 2014, with another team, in another league? Must be the same stuff Morton was using with a completely different team in 2016 when he started pitching better in the NL.
    Look, we all know pitchers are spraying stuff on their hands to make them stickier. That came out a couple of years ago.
    When the Indians had the best pitching staff in the league the last two years they got credit for it without the accusations. Apparently they are not happy with somebody else stealing their thunder.
    What happened to the pine tar in the playoffs when nobody could grip the ball for either side. Do World Series baseballs dissolve pine tar?
    All I know is that this deal is good for the Astros. They need to get mad when they play the Indians. They owe the Indians some payback.

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  27. Josh Rojas, who has been tearing it up lately at Buies Creek [slash line .311/.410/.921 with 12 SBs out of 12 attempts], and Corbin Martin, who hasn’t allowed an earned run all year [19 IP, 26 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.58 WHIP], have just been promoted to AA Corpus.

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    • So Rojas who is a MarGo wannabe (has played 1B, 2B, SS, 3B and LF) has stolen 12 bases in 24 games while the Astros as a team have stolen 10 bases in 30 games….

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      • Myles Straw has already stolen 14 for Corpus Christi. But he’s been caught twice.
        To put this in contrast, speedsters Tony Kemp [Fresno] and Stephen Wrenn [Corpus] only have 8 steals apiece.

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      • The Rojas promotion is interesting. Corpus’ roster is pretty stacked already. Where will he play – or who there will get promoted to Fresno? After all, Fresno’s roster is stacked as well, with no one having anyplace to go. I guess Arturo Michaelena, a light-hitting back-up 3B who has struggled to hit at all levels, could be sent down to Buies Creek, or perhaps even DFA-ed, to make room. But even if that happens, we still have 1st string 3B Randy Cesar at third for CC, and Randy is presently slashing .329/.363/.810.

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  30. Montgomery must have gotten hurt because he is out after 1 inning. The offense continues to be comatose early….

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  31. I’ve got to admit, I’m getting concerned about Gattis. He’s a mess. The club had to have great confidence in him getting the job done as DH. They would not have paid him otherwise. I hope they are right on this one too.

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    • Tracking on Gameday – nothing better than Marwin taking the first pitch right down the middle and swinging at one on his ankles

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      • Yeah, Marwin looked like he was coming around a week ago, but has regressed back to where he was. I’d hate to lose this effort by Verlander. We need 1 run and 6 outs.

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    • The other team’s pitcher leaves with a bum elbow after one inning and you can’t do anything against the sub.

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  38. Dam shame……Verlander pitches his heart out with 14 strike outs, and Giles comes in and lays a STINKING EGG. Jeeze.

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  43. Tucker can’t fix Gattis, Marwin, Fisher, Jake. Let him start crushing AAA ball and get an OPS up over 1.000 for an extended period of time. In the meantime, even if we play at a .600 pace, we’re in great shape. Nobody wins 20 out of 30 all year.

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      • I understand. Take deep breaths. At some point soon, maybe White or Davis gets a shot. They are both having big nights again. Who do we send down though? I think Gattis and Marwin are actually hurting us the most because they are everyday players. Unfortunately, there is no place to send them.

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  44. Something has GOT TO CHANGE. Fire Hudgens and use Bagwell for a few games until you find someone else. What a horrible way to thank Verlander for such a terrific game😯

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  45. Giles did not lose that game. The Astros lineup lost that game. Their pitcher had to leave the game after one inning and the Astros hitters acted like Verlander himself was going to score runs.
    The hitting on this team has let the pitchers down over and over again.
    This is the best pitchinjg staff in baseball and they shut the Yankees down. Where are the batters on this team? They have been MIA all season.

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  46. BUT…..watching Giles try to knock himself out with his glove, and throwing bats I the dugout ain’t gonna garner him much sympathy from me. “I just have to go out there tomorrow and be better”….uh no thank you.

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  47. Maybe time to look at trading Gattis and Jake. Gattis seems to be a better hitter when he plays everyday and that’s not going to happen while we’re trying to get Stassi ready to take over the catching duties full time. Both have value but the right team has to be found to make the right deal. Jake K’s 53%, Gattis’ 32%, Marwin 30%. Last year we had the best 7-9 hitters in the league. This year we have significantly less. My concern is that the pitching will eventually have issues if they think they have to throw a shut out every time they take the mound. That 600 winning percentage could drop to 500 real quick like. We just expect better.

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  49. It is always hard to lose a Verlander game. He was brilliant! And it was good to see Yuli step up with a multi-hit game. But the people who had real chances to drive in runs – Bregman, Marwin, and Gattis – just couldn’t get it done. Hats off to the Yankees’ bullpen. They were significantly better than our bullpen guys for the 2nd night in a row.

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  50. In Fresno’s wild California Wind League loss last night, J.D. Davis was 4-5 with a HR, two doubles, two RBIs, and no Ks, and Tyler White was 3-3 with a HR, 1 BB, no Ks, and 3 RBIs.

    KTuck? He went 0-5 with a K.

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