Twofer Tuesday: Ken Giles and Astros’ offense

Just a quick visit on a couple of timely topics…..

Ken Giles. Yay or Nay as the closer?

  • We know he was putrid in the playoffs …. 0-2 with a 11.74 ERA and a seat at the far end of the bullpen by the end of the World Series.
  • We know he is very shaky right now. He has a 4.50 ERA in four appearances that included only one save opportunity. That one out save opportunity almost ended up in a blown save and a 9.00 ERA on Monday night.
  • We also know….he has started each of the last two seasons with the Astros with shaky Aprils that rolled into much better Mays thru Septembers. In 2016, Giles ended April with a 9.00 ERA, before putting up a 3.20 ERA and 15 saves over the rest of the season. Last season he had a 4.35 ERA in April, before posting a strong 1.89 ERA and 28 saves thereafter.

The choices are:

  • To wait and see if Giles breaks out of this funk and gets some bite back in his slider that seemed to disappear with the “odd” playoff baseballs and make him the main closer.
  • To move on to Brad Peacock, who has been tough in every situation and earned his first career save this last weekend. However, notice that when they tried to re-use Brad Monday night (rather than after a longer rest) he got into trouble and had to be rescued by Chris Devenski.
  • To move on to Chris Devenski, who has been one of the most dependable bullpen arms since coming up in 2016. Just remember that Devo had a 9.00 ERA in the playoffs, though that might have been due to overuse.
  • Go for an outside arm or a minor league arm.
  • Keep passing the closer mantle back and forth and then use the 4th/5th starters to bolster the back of the bullpen in the playoffs.

Where is the Astros offense or are our memories short?

  • OK – they are still 4th in runs scored in the AL, but after lapping the field in every offensive category last year, this season seems like a big drop-off.
  • But the Astros’ early season offense in 2017 was not a fine oiled machine. Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Marwin Gonzalez all struggled through a mostly cold April.
  • The Astros scored 4.4 runs per game in April and 5.74 runs for the following 137 games in 2017.
  • The biggest concern may be the fact that the Astros, who had removed strikeouts from their vocabulary last season are currently the 14th worst team in the AL in Ks in 2018.

It does not take long to figure out why the Astros are not scoring well. They have a big stretch of their lineup from about #6 thru #9 and back around thru #1 and #2 (with the exception of the catcher spot) that is not hitting.

  • Normal leadoff George Springer hit a home run in his first AB this season and has been over swinging ever since. (.182 BA/.260 OBP/ .578 OPS)
  • Second half and playoff hero and normal #2 spot filler, Alex Bregman is walking but doing little else (.175 BA/.327 OBP/ .552 OPS and 0 HR)
  • End of the lineup OFs Jake Marisnick (.179/.179/.571 with 13 Ks and 0 walks) and Derek Fisher (.167/ .192/ .526 with 12 Ks and 1 walk) have brought very little to the party as hitters while Fisher has had success as a pinch runner.
  • Evan Gattis has held up the fine tradition of the Astros getting next to nothing out of their DH slot. (.212/.297/.631 and 0 HRs)
  • J.D. Davis has looked more like A.J. Reed with an insanely bad slash line of .111 BA/.159 OBP/.268 OPS

The other side to this coin is to think of how much better this lineup will do when Yuli Gurriel is added back in and Springer and Bregman start to hit. Right now the team has ridden a hot Josh Reddick, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve (though he has 0 HR and only 3 RBIs) Brian McCann and Max Stassi and a lot of serendipity to the 4th spot in runs in the AL.

So where are you at on these two areas of discussion?

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115 responses to “Twofer Tuesday: Ken Giles and Astros’ offense”

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  3. Slumps. The Astros have them, like most teams have them.
    Currently, the Astros have five guys hitting over .300, five guys hitting under .200, and two guys in the low .200’s.
    Barring unforseen circumstances, Gurriel is going to be back in that lineup on Friday and one of the guys who isn’t hitting will be sent down.
    I still worry about the bullpen, but it is wonderful to be able to use Peacock, Devenski, and Giles in the same game and have Harris, Rondon, Smith and McHugh available tonight and a day off on Thursday.
    I think some of Springer’s trouble is have no hitting in front of him at the 9 position and no hitting after him in Bregman. Springer is trying so hard to do it all himself.
    When this team’s hitters break out it will be something.
    Off subject, Corbin Martin had a real good opening appearance for Buies Creek yesterday. Bukauskas makes his first start of the season for QC tonight.
    And, if you missed it, Yuli is playing LF for CC in their day game at this moment.

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  4. Oh and if any of you are closet Mariner fans – I am going to have a review of the M’s – just got caught up in an avalanche at work – so had to write some quickly lunch time posts here lately.

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  5. Giles needs to be our closer until he proves that he just can’t get the job done. Sure, we could put Peacock there and he might be as good as anyone, but then we’d have to cover the role he’s in right now. The domino effect. If Giles continues to suck, Luhnow will likely need to find another guy that can consistently get late outs.

    I’m not too worried about the post season. As we proved last year, Luhnow/Hinch invented a way to win it all without a closer. Over a few short series, things can be done differently.

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    • I really disagree with this line of thinking, especially since we have other alternatives. Giles’ biggest problem is not his slider but his lack of fastball command. Last night after Buxton mercifully fouled off the potential game tying bomb Giles immediately uncorked a 58 foot fastball! I did see that he hit 98mph once last night which under the conditions was pretty good but so far this spring his velocity is down and so is his command. The idea of putting him out there and blowing saves until he gets his stuff together might be necessary if he was the only alternative but we have so many others who are pitching better than he is. Let him EARN his way back into the closer role with some good 6/7/8 inning work instead of letting him flog around and fail until its painfully obvious he’s not up to the job.

      Hinch had me scratching my head last night with his bullpen usage. Was he hoping to get a two inning save out of Peacock? Was Devo so unlikely to retire Buxton that AJ got to channeling his inner Dave Roberts and made an ill advised switch to Giles? Is our pitching staff so thin that we get 21 outs from our starter and it takes three relievers to get the final six outs? OTOH I was overjoyed that he brought in Devo to face the lefties instead of knee jerk calling on Sipp.

      As for the hitting, the strikeouts do alarm me. Altuve!! took a fastball right down the middle last night and Fisher has been called out on strikes so many times that it makes me think he’s going up there trying not to fail instead of doing something positive. I don’t know exactly who it was but a Dominican player once commented about his lack of plate discipline and low walk rate by stating that one didn’t walk off the island but that you had to hit your way into the big leagues. Fisher is not going to walk his way onto the roster. He and Davis need to hit. Getting Yuli back will be huge IMO. We need his consistent contact and exit velocity. I’m hoping that will have a positive domino effect on the rest of the lieneup.

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  6. Jake is the most disappointing to me right now. Most of his at bats have simply been hopeless. At some point, and it’s too early now, he’s going to have to be relegated to a late inning role, if his success at plate in 2017 was a one time deal.

    I still firmly believe Even Gattis will hit. He’s got a touch of Springer Syndrome. They’re trying too hard. I’m concerned about Fisher. Not seeing any signs yet that he’s ready to breakout. Davis is gone tomorrow, unless I’m missing something.

    Tucker could force his way to the MLB stage sooner than we would have expected if someone else already with the club does not wake up with the bat. Derek Fisher, this is your real shot! Blow this one and there might not be another one for you with this organization.

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  7. i would like to caution everyone that we have only played 11 games to this point. making longterm decisions based on that amount of play is not advised. lets see 25-30 games before we start to try sort things out.

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    • If we keep winning even 6 out of 10, there is no real reason not to give guys every chance to get their acts together. Like I said earlier, I hope Fisher starts against most righties, at least into June. Giles bothers me a bit, because shouldn’t he be ready to do his job right out of the gate?

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  8. Maybe a bad case of spring fever with these guys. Luckily not everyone has caught it but you can’t continue to ride the backs of the starting five all season. Somebody has got to get the hit parade going. Yes, you can keep sending Giles out there but unless he can return to his good slider and some movement on his fast ball (maybe a tutorial from JV, GC, or CM) he won’t make it through the season. I also believe as much as we want to, we can’t run Peacock out there every day. We do have others in the bullpen.

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    • We are going to need to let Collin McHugh have some of Devenski, Peacock, and/or Giles spots. Collin has only been in 3 games – 4.2 IP. Devenski, Peacock, and Giles have been in 5 games apiece. So far, Collin’s ERA is 1.93 and his WHIP is 1.07. He’s got 5 SOs and only 1 BB in those 4.2 IP.

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  10. Thoughts based on y’all’s thoughts
    Billy C – just remember that at some point the starting pitching has to return to earth – so we need the offense to have some normalcy by that time too

    OP – I know that Springer is missing having folks on in front of him and hitting behind him, but…..every time he slumps he looks exactly like this – trying to hit 600 ft HRs and pulling off the ball

    dave b – I agree Giles is your best bet closer in the regular season, if….his slider stops looking like Hurricane Harvey – just sitting there and spinning

    RayJ ( you can call me Ray or you can call me J but you don’t have to call me Johnson) – Absolutely 11 games is a short short time. If you made judgments in 2017 based on such a short stint you would have missed out on some good baseball by guys who were struggling early

    Zanuda – Yeah – Hinch can’t over-ride any one reliever – I felt like that really hurt Devenski last year in the playoffs – brought into most of the games and warmed up in others

    Mr. Bill – great point on McHugh – would be nice to see him do a 2 or 3 inning save

    Kevin – I am glad to hear about Moran doing well. He looked so terrible in his mlb review and then last year came up and was killing it until that terrible foul ball into his face. Good for the young man

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    • Dan: When really good pitchers pitch really good, they do not necessarily have to return to earth. It’s when the not-too-good pitchers pitch really good that you can expect a return to earth(Fiers, Fister, Feldman, etc.)

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      • Morton, Cole and Verlander are good to very good pitchers but they are not likely to end the season with 0.00, 0.64 and 1.45 ERAs respectively.

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      • Probably not, but they still may pitch in the stratosphere where the air is rare and might not return to earth.

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    • Dan, we’ll see McHugh in that 2 or 3 inning situation before long. I really appreciate the fact that he’s prepared himself to handle a brand new role and to date anyway, has been doing his job.

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      • daveb – Here’s a guy who did not cost you a draft pick. He did cost you prospects to come here. You did not have to give him a big FA contract. You picked him off the street and he’s won 48 games for you with a 3.68 ERA and has made over a 100 starts. Heading into this season he has cost you a grand total of approx. $5.5 million. Even with paying him $5 million for this season he has been a tremendous bargain.

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    • lol yeah dan i was wondering when someone would get around to that. i use the google log in now and thats what they call me. i am hoping to some day get back to my plain old rj moniker. take care and say hello to father guido sarducci for me. ps. the fact that you get both those references can only mean one thing— youre old.

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  11. Altuve not in lineup…Davis at first.

    This is probably not going to lead to us winning 16-2 tonight.

    Just saying.

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  12. Serendipity. Is there a better word in the English language to describe the Astros 9-2 start? I think Seren has already played every position for us.

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    • Dan: For me no it doesn’t. I don’t have perfect recall on this but when Pujols destroyed Lidge I think it messed Lidge up for over a season. I think Giles failure in the postseason has badly eroded his confidence. His body language is awful. Did you see his expression when the ball came off Buxton’s bat? He was beaten. And even though he did record the final out Buxton hit the ball hard but right at Altuve.

      For any other reliever there are situations that they can be given some slack but for closers they are held to a higher standard simply because blown saves can sap a team. When I look at Giles he clearly looks like he is in failure avoidance mode. I want my closer to be the guy who DEMANDS the ball in the crucial situation. Giles needs to build his self esteem and confidence with accomplishment and not by having folks blow sunshine at him. His 2017 regular season was darn good but that is history. His late season melt down is who he is right now. I don’t want that guy closing games for us right now. I still think Peacock has the best temperament. I don’t really have all that much confidence in Devo now either. His control is nowhere near as good as in early 2017. Am I the only one who thinks he is falling off the mound more than last year? Too many low fastballs and high changeups so far.

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      • You may be right – you are right about Lidge. But I do remember how Dave Smith melted down in the 1986 playoffs against the Mets and then came back in 1987 with a 1.65 ERA. So it does not always happen that way.

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      • Excellent observation on Giles and Devo drbill. I believe we have Joe Smith and Rondon available also. Let’s use them.

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      • I’m probably too optimistic at times. Giles has looked beat – though he has looked like that before.

        Not enjoying the Keuchel show thus far. He had some bad luck – a nubber that Bregman made a great play on but was rightfully reversed as a hit and then some close pitches that were not called. But unlike Verlander he has been unable to overcome that and has given up 2 runs and counting in the 1st.

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  17. Jake laid off the off the plate balls, got the count in his favor and lined a 3-1 pitch for a run to close it to a 2-1 game.

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  20. Dan, we might get a lengthy outing from our friend Collin tonight. I think this game is going to take 4 plus hours though, and I’ll asleep well before!

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    • The ump is giving both clubs the outside corner (expanded) but DK keeps going to the lower 3rd. Take what they give you! Lucky we’re not down by 6 runs.

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    • I think he’s either hurt or laboring to get as much velocity on his pitches and becoming a thrower instead of a pitcher.

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  23. I posted this on an earlier thread. Looks like its playing out for Keuchel.

    “With regard to Keuchel, this business of “not giving in to the hitters” points to the fact that he is not competing in the strike zone. Our other starters have the stuff to get guys out in the strike zone where it looks like Keuchel avoids it. A team patient enough to lay off his marginal stuff will get walks and his pitch count up. It also looks like he is going to be the most susceptible to the vagaries of the umpires. If he gets an ump with an expansive zone he may do well but if the zone is tight it can get ugly.”

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    • The hitting is now what I call a crisis. Something is not right. And as much as I loved 2017, it’s now 2018 and we start all over. If something doesn’t change we’ll be lucky to finish .500. I know some will say I’m over reacting but having watched all but 1 game so far this year, I am not impressed. Aside from pitching (a couple of exceptions) we’re lucky we don’t have a losing record at this point. Somebody needs to give this team a swift kick in the ass. They don’t look like they’re having much fun.

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      • Z man, I don’t see a crisis just yet. BUT one hitter at .400 (Stassi), 3 hitters at .300, 2 at .200, and 6 in the .100’s. So out of 12, Brett Wallace would be batting 5th.

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  28. From what little I watched, I think either the umpires were COLD or they need more Spring Training. Not consistent either way, or either part of the plate. Maybe they had frozen tears in their eyes.

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  29. Zanuda, we are 9 and 3. Sure the hitting sucks, but it certainly is not a crisis. You are overreacting. You are overreacting. It’s a good sign that our guys are not having fun. They are freezing their asses off and not doing their jobs well.

    They are human. And these humans will hit. I’m looking for a win today, 2 out of 3 against a good team, and a 10 and 3 overall record, coming home to beat the Strangers this weekend. Life is good.

    But I will say that after three unimpressive starts, Dallas Keuchel needs to allow fewer baserunners, which means he has to throw more strikes. And if his strikes turn into hits, then he’s got a larger issue. We’ll see.

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    • This was the first of Keuchel’s starts that I got to see and it was a tough viewing. Way too much nibbling and behind on the count almost every batter. Most of the hitters were waiting him out.
      I have that fear Dave that if he throws strikes they are going to get hit.
      On the other hand it was a cold night on the road with an ump who was not giving strikes at the knees. Hopefully it is mechanics and not DK trying to throw thru another hidden injury.

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      • Dan, yeah, if he has to put the ball over the plate, I think he’s going to get hit. Three games now, three different umps, too many base runners. It is a trend. If he can’t fix the problem, it’s a much bigger issue for him and a long term contract somewhere. The Astro organization has options though, so I’m not really all that concerned about it from that perspective.

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    • OK, point made. Let me rephrase to “overly concerned”. Sure it was cold, but that didn’t seem to bother the Twins. There were some sharply hit balls last night but right at people. Yes we’re 9 – 3, but that’s because of excellent pitching. If we turn it around today or this weekend, I’ll rush down to the store and get me some fresh crow to cook up. As to Bregman, I was wondering what Hinch said to him after he got picked off. Finally, when you’re not scoring runs, try some “small ball”. The best offensive move was when Altuve laid down a perfect bunt. A lot appear to be pressing. Relax, have fun guys. On a positive note (bet that surprised you), McHugh looked very good. I agree with the K zone with DK but you take what the umpires give you (outside edge). He did not and thus became frustrated. I actually thought he might say something to the ump but didn’t. Curious where the K zone will be today. Go get ’em guys.

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  30. I’ll also say that I’m a little annoyed with Bregman. Monday night he got thrown out at second trying to steal after getting on to lead off the inning with Altuve at the plate and Correa coming up. Last night he got picked off in the same situation. Then he wanted a review. I could see he was out from here in the Wast Indies.

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    • I feel like Bregman is where Altuve was around 2013. Altuve had had some success his first 1-1/2 years, but had a regression year – seemed to be pressing – led the league in caught steals – that kind of thing.
      Or maybe we find that Bregman starts off bad every year and then comes around.

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  31. YIE – but the farther we go into the season, the more we may want the organization to turn away from Keuchel and work on an off-season extension of Cole. I would say Verlander too, but I am wondering if that is just a pipe dream

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  32. Highlight of the night – Collin McHugh’s first inning of work. Strikes can be thrown. Bats can be missed. Outs can be gotten.

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  33. Well one way to resolve the Ken Giles issue – if we play more games like last night there are not going to be save opportunities….

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  34. The Astros are 9-3 and in each of their 3 losses they have scored 1 run.
    Their pitching has been terrific and their hitting has been bad.
    The Astros, as a team, need to start scoring some runs and give their pitchers a chance of winning. without having to carry an ERA of less than 2.00.
    It’s bad enough for the pitchers to have to look at the lousy baserunning and defense. Now, they have to put up with the strikeouts and lack of runs, too.
    Astros hitters can say all the right things about how they are working hard, blah, blah, blah. Truth of the matter is the lineup looks like they are on a victory tour.

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    • Tale of two offensive teams. First 6 games scored – 6.33 runs per game – last 6 games scored 2.00 runs per game and won 4 of those last 6 due to insanely good pitching.

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  35. During the long season, our hitters will be bailing out our pitchers from time to time. It will even out. OP, it does not like a very happy victory tour.

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  36. Anyone have a clue why mlb.com has TBD as our pitchers for the series starting Friday against the Rangers? Cole, Morton and Verlander abducted by aliens? The Little League team from Arlington has Hamels, Minor and Colon…..

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  37. That moment . . . when you realize that the defending world champions have 4 players in their starting line up with batting averages under the Mendoza Line – and that we are in the American League so none of them are pitchers.

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  41. Did anyone else see just how fast A.J. walked to the mound to pull Lance? Usually managers walk to the mound slowly.

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  42. Might be time to let the team know the WS celebration is over, every team is going to be fired up to beat us , and a Little League effort wont work anymore, just saying…

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  43. Sports Illustrated picked us to win 2017 so theoretically teams were fired up against us the year we won it all. But yes, I know they’re after us now. Pete and Repeat were walking on a bridge. Pete fell off and who was left. Repeat. Repeat?

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    • That’s why I love him as manager. Enough is enough with him.

      If we win this game it’ll be very telling

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  48. Well, it looks like at least one of the Astro starters who began the game under the Mendoza Line is not content to end there.

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  49. I hope this performance today will finally make people realize that without fastball command no amount of trick pitches will prevail against big league hitters. I’m half expecting McCullers to put some blame on Stassi as if he ought to have McCann as his personal catcher. Lance has talent but just about zero maturity.

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