Random questions at the beginning of the 2018 marathon

YIE (Yes It’s Early) but the Astros reaction to the 2017 World Series championship is about as far from a hangover as possible. A solid 6-1 record has been achieved with top of the heap offense and starting pitching. Not all of the Astros are hitting or pitching at the top but there are so many weapons within A.J. Hinch’s reach that the Astros have been winning as though there has been no off-season.

Today, will be random questions day, because it would be silly to write too positively or negatively after such a small sample.

Random Question #1. Are the Astros reshaping the idea of a closer?

The Astros have won six of their seven games this season. They have zero saves. Ken Giles, who is the designated closer has not had an opportunity to save a game, because he has been used in a couple of games where no save was possible. The one potential save situation, the series finale 3-2 win over the Orioles went away as Hinch kept Brad Peacock in the game for a third shutout inning rather than doing the knee jerk move of bringing in Giles for the ninth. The Astros applied this multi-inning use of bullpen assets to end games in both their ALCS win over the Yankees and the WS win over the Dodgers. Are they going to take this idea to an extreme as they can get multi-innings out of Peacock, Chris Devenski and Collin McHugh from this season’s bullpen?

Random Question #2. Can Dallas Keuchel rebound from this horrendous start?

This is a bit tongue in cheek. Keuchel has given up too many hits and too many walks, but has done a decent job as far as runs go. He has given up 4 ER and 1 HR in 11.0 IP, while St. Justin Verlander has given up 3 ER and 2 HR in 11.2 IP. I don’t think our perception of the situation, especially early, matches the reality of the situation. If the Astros end the season with their “worst” starting pitcher sporting a 3.21 ERA it will be a pretty terrific season.

Random Question #3. Does Carlos Correa surpass Jose Altuve this season?

The thought here is that if Correa wants to take over the mantle of best Astro he will have to “come and get it” as Altuve does not appear to be ready to go quietly into that good night. As good friend of the blog, old pro, pointed out yesterday Correa is off to a great start .474 BA/.522 OBP/1.469 OPS with 2 HR and 8 RBIs in only 19 ABs. Mr. Altuve has had a strong start with .414 BA/.419 OBP /.902 OPS, but with only 3 RBIs. There is no doubt that a healthy Carlos Correa hitting his prime at only 23 could have a transcendent season, if he can stay healthy. This will be a fun competition to follow in 2018.

Random Question #4. Will anyone make the Astros an offer they can’t refuse for Collin McHugh?

It is doubtful that the Astros will do anything with Mr. McHugh until around the trade deadline as they find out how the pitching staff’s health holds. But if McHugh never finds a comfort zone in the bullpen and the starters stay healthy, could the front office resist a solid offer of prospects for this $5 million insurance policy?

Random Question #5. Is Max Stassi angling to be the starting catcher for 2019?

The team has an option to bring Brian McCann (who will be 35 years old) back at $15 million for one year. If McCann is solid and Stassi is solid this season what do they do in 2018? Would they forego the option but try to sign McCann for a couple of seasons as a backup for less?

Random Question #6. Which minor leaguer(s), if any, will come up and help the team in 2018?

To varying degrees the Astros received some positive boosts from Derek Fisher, Tyler White and Francis Martes in 2017. Fisher, of course, scored the winning run of game 5 of the World series, White put up a .279 BA/.328 OBP/.853 OPS slash in 22 games and Martes though struggling out of the bullpen was solid in 4 starts when the Astros rotation was in shambles (2-0, 4.08 ERA). Do White and Martes return for encores? Rogelio Armenteros? David Paulino? Kyle Tucker? Or someone else who assists out of necessity?

Random Question #7. Has A.J. Hinch missed his window for being Manager of the Year?

Manager of the year winners are normally managers who win more games than expected from perceived inferior talent or who lead a team to great improvement over the previous season. Everybody knows the Astros are loaded. Everybody knows the Astros have returned last year’s WS champs with improvements. It is just not likely that they will award an excellent year with this type of talent staring them in the face. It is not fair, but if you ask Hinch he won’t give a flip if he is riding in another parade at the end of the 2018 season.

Where do you land on these questions of not too great import? Do you have random questions of your own?

133 responses to “Random questions at the beginning of the 2018 marathon”

  1. Are the Astros reshaping the idea of a closer? Yes, but not alone and not as a true purpose. Baseball itself is reshaping the idea of a closer because of the way the position of closer has shot itself.
    The Yankees and others have paid through the nose for closers and yielded to the long term mania of acquiring one, only to see a team whup that closer in the ALCS and WS, and win with #3 and #4 starters who had good fastballs and sliders and didn’t have them signed to $80 million deals.
    Mark Melancon, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Janssen and Craig Kimbrell getting huge deals and getting beat in crunch time last year, combined with Gile’s wearing out at crunch time after giving up five players to get him is forcing teams, including Houston to look at their bullpen differently. Trusting a number of guys, rather than sinking huge money in one guy to save games may be the wave of the future. (Back to the Future?)
    The idea of paying $18 million for eight guys, rather than paying $18 million to one guy could be the thing that fits in with paying your core, developing your prospects earlier, not paying huge money to free agents past their prime and being smart with your money by being better at allocating it irs the reason things are changing all over baseball.
    By the way, just throwing this out there, does anyone equate “the new power/ elevate the ball and get to that low pitch”, to Keuchel/s struggles. The guy has lived at the bottom of the zone and we thought raising the zone would affect him, but maybe it’s the change that the batters are making in lifting lower pitches that could get to him, because he doesn’t have the high heat to get the batters to chase like Verlander, Cole, Morton and McCullers do.

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  2. * Are the Astros reshaping the idea of a closer *

    Necessity is the mother of invention, so the answer is ‘Yes’. The playoffs were a big wake-up call. Ken Giles can definitely throw – but ‘closing’ the deal against playoff level teams is just not something he seems to be able to do consistently. The ninth inning is tough for anyone – and during the season he seems to handle it pretty well 3 times out of 5. In crucial games, however, he has not shown the necessary level of confidence or concentration. He overthrows. He lets the situation get the best of him. I suspect Ken will still be given plenty of chances – and will end the year with 20 or more saves. But I don’t think Luhnow is willing to put all his eggs in the Ken Giles basket again. Unless and until Giles stops [a] walking opponents on 4 pitches when we need outs, [b] throwing WPs to the screen when we need runners held in place, and [c] missing his spots badly at all the wrong moments, he will not, nor should be be, used by this team as a traditional ‘closer’. Fortunately, we have options.

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  3. 1. Yes and I think that they should. The idea of a single closer may be coming to a conclusion. The Astros are helping rethink the way pitching is used in those 7, 8 and especially the 9th inning. I like what I see so far.
    2. ??? The jury is still out on DK. He looks to be slipping into the mediocrity of a number 4 or 5 starter. Some may disagree but from what I saw in his 1st 2 outings he does not have the command that he once had and has lost more speed on his fastball. To keep up with the elite pitchers he needs to change his repertoire.
    3. Either/or is fine with me. Considering how the relationship these two have I have no favorites except I understand CC wants it badly as he has indicated.
    4. If there are no injuries, I would think McHugh will be dealt. I just think he’s better as a starter and we could get some up and coming prospects for him.
    5. If Stassi continues his current play I’d say yes on him being the catcher next year. Wouldn’t mind having McCann as a backup but I don’t think he’s looking at it that way.
    6. I’d like to see KT but I don’t see it yet. The other aforementioned players are not game changers so I’d look for somebody “new and improved”.
    7. I’d say yes unless the writers want to give it to him for big turnaround that this team has made over the past 3 seasons. I like others haven’t all agreed with some of his decisions but you can’t argue the facts of where we are now. He’d get my vote but then I’m just a little biased.

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  4. *Can Dallas Keuchel rebound from this horrendous [wink! wink!] start? *

    Yes, I feel pretty confident that he can rebound – if he can just stay healthy. I like the fact that, even when he’s not getting strikeouts [a] he’s still getting a lot of ground ball outs, [b] he’s not giving in to hitters – hence the high pitch counts, and [c] he’s remained stingy about allowing runs.

    What I’ll be watching:
    1. HRs – if his HR/9 goes up by a point over the next two starts, watch out;
    2. BB/9 – if his BB/9 doesn’t improve by a point in the next start, watch out;
    3. Hits – he needs to bring down the batting average against him by a minimum of .50 points over the next five or six starts; and
    4. GO/AO – he needs to keep pushing his GO/AO up.

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  5. * Does Carlos Correa surpass Jose Altuve this season? *

    Probably not in BA, doubles, SBs, or OBP; but very likely he will surpass Jose this year in HRs and increase his lead over Jose in the area of RBIs.

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  6. *Will anyone make the Astros an offer they can’t refuse for Collin McHugh?*

    As asked, the answer to the question is probably ‘no’. I am just thinking about what an offer that a team with our talent level can’t refuse would be. Trout? Harper? Eaton? Kershaw? Sale? Yelich? Shotani? Gardner? Freddie Freeman or Robinson Cano to be our DH?

    That being said, a lot may depend on [a] how soon Collin is called upon to step back into the rotation due to an injury to one of our current stable of starters, and, failing that [b] how unhappy Collin becomes in operating out of the bullpen, assuming that unhappiness affects his performance.

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  7. * Is Max Stassi angling to be the starting catcher for 2019? *

    Sure, he’s ‘angling’ for that -and he should be. But he’s got a long way to go, and a lot to prove, for that to happen. As you said, we have an option on ‘Old Tired Knees’, and we also have Garrett Stubbs and Senor Cuban Phenomenon waiting in the wings if those two stumble. Plus, if all else fails, the Marlins’ will probably be looking to part with Mr. Realmuto at or before the trade deadline.

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  8. * Which minor leaguer(s), if any, will come up and help the team in 2018? *

    This is a head-scratcher. With the exception of our highly-touted first round draft picks like Correa and Bregman, we really don’t have a very good track record lately of incorporating guys from AA or AAA into productive roles on the big team. Most of the guys who come up just can’t catch up to the pace of the major league game – e.g. Tyler White, A.J. Reed, Tony Kemp, J.D. Davis, Felix Martes, David Paulino, Reymin Guduan, Jandel Gustave, Brady Rodgers, and Derek Fisher. The in-year promotion guys who looked most likely to succeed were Kike Hernandez, Teoscar Hernandez, and Colin Moran – and they are all gone.

    I keep hoping SOMEBODY will come up and stick. We really need someone to come in and play a little Wally Pipp for a change when one of our guys goes down.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I think I will answer the question as a reply.
      I could see Garrett Stubbs coming up as a result of an injury to an older catcher and helping the team this year. He’s 25, does not have a history of a lot of strikeouts, hit the ball well in spring training and is considered to be an excellent defensive catcher who hits from the left side.
      If Rogelio Armenteros continues his ways, I could see him coming up in the event of an injury to a pitcher.

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  9. * Has A.J. Hinch missed his window for being Manager of the Year? *

    Since he did not win last year, and since everybody now expects the ‘Stros to dominate the division and play deep into October, it is pretty much out of his hands.

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  10. The Astros have already reshaped the traditional role of the closer. We have several guys, when hot, who can finish off a game throwing 20 or 30 or 40 pitches. Why pull a guy to use the traditional closer? If he’s ineffective, you’ve just used two guys and now need to go back to the pen. Giles will get plenty of work and will help this club. He might not get 38 save opportunities though.

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  11. Keuchel might be the best guy in the rotation or the fifth best guy in the rotation. And even if he’s fifth best, it does not mean he’s going to have a bad year. If he is healthy, we’ll be happy to have him.

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  12. As long as Correa keeps hitting the heck out of the ball, Altuve can’t get pitched around. And George and Alex will be all over the bases too. Watching those two guys all year at 3 and 4 should be a whole lot of fun.

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  13. I think Collin will start some important games this year. There will be rotation injuries. I think he’ll get the call before Rogelio. Unless we find ourselves with a real weakness on the 25 man roster and need outside help, I don’t think Collin goes anywhere anytime soon. And I don’t think he’s miserable either.

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  14. I’d be disappointed in Max if he was not thinking in that direction, but at some point he’ll go 0 for 18 and we’ll be discussing who besides Max should be the starter next year. I don’t think it’s McCann though. I’m dying to see what our secret catcher in Corpus does.

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  15. I’ve been sending short responses on my ipad, because longer ones seem to disappear.

    There will be guys up when guys on the 25 man get injured. Bad injuries give guys in Fresno a better chance. I hope we don’t have too many of them.

    I don’t think Hinch even thinks about winning Manager of the Year. Once you win it all, that’s kind of a booby prize.

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  16. Fisher should have layed out for that line drive. Lance still needs to learn how to keep his focus when things don’t go well.

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  17. And now tonight’s mystery theater presents “The case of the missing bats”. I don’t believe I’ve seen hitters look at so many 1st pitch strikes in my life. Very Frustrating. Bright spot was McHugh’s performance. Giles, well don’t even want to go there. Fisher, do we have an alternative? Sorry, but this was just a bad game for the good guys and not fun to watch at all. Maybe the “sun will come out tomorrow”.

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    • The Astros had an awful game plan and played it to perfection.
      The Padres beat the Astros in every facet of the game.
      I will be glad when the Astros organization decides that 2017 has ended.

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  18. A stinker of a game for sure with lack of fastball command still plaguing McCullers and Giles.

    With regard to Keuchel, this business of “not giving in to the hitters” points to the fact that he is not competing in the strike zone. Our other starters have the stuff to get guys out in the strike zone where it looks like Keuchel avoids it. A team patient enough to lay off his marginal stuff will get walks and his pitch count up. It also looks like he is going to be the most susceptible to the vagaries of the umpires. If he gets an ump with an expansive zone he may do well but if the zone is tight it can get ugly.

    Even though we have a good record I think we miss Yuli’s presence in the lineup. Swapping him for Fisher/Davis will be a big boost.

    We may be forced to reinvent the closer role if Giles continues to have control issues. Plus, how long has it been since he’s fired off a 100 mph heater? If he’s taking something off to get better control it’s not working. I’m going to stay stubborn and say that our best candidate for closer is Brad Peacock.

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  19. We’re a better team than in 2017. There will be a stinker every now and then. Too early to be looking for an alternative to Fisher. We want guys to get developed from in house, but then we want to find an alternative after 17 at bats? I thought this post was about the 2018 “Marathon”.

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    • OK, maybe a bit premature on Fisher but in watching him I didn’t see too many things to be positive about. He needs work. It seems we have guys hitting very good or almost pathetic. It’s early yet but many just haven’t gotten their MOJO on yet. And I’m still PO’d about how many 1st pitch strikes we let go by last night. If anyone noticed, the SD players were all over McCuellars 1st pitch fastball because they really didn’t want to try to hit his curve. Although he threw a lot of pitches, Perdomo was very sharp last night. 2/3’s of his pitches were for strikes and our K-rate was 40% (not good). Just pointing out some things we need to work on. We need to stay on top since it looks like the Angels are going to give us a race this year.

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      • I hope Fisher remains our leftfielder against righthanded pitching at least through June. We should be good enough to carry him that long if need be. I want him to get that real look. And at that point, we’ll also know if Tucker needs more AAA ball.

        Lot’s of hoopla this past week with trophy presentations, rings to everyone but me and OP, all sorts of distractions. I’m hoping for a couple of wins this weekend and then a positive trip to play a tough team in the Twins.

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  20. Our baby ‘Stros continue to struggle – but one team, the Corpus Christi Hooks, did manage to pull off a wild and woolly 9th inning miracle and come back from a 9-5 deficit to win 11-9. It wasn’t pretty. There was rain. There were bases loaded walks. There was a bases-clearing triple by Alex De Goti. There was a 2-run single to clinch it by Carmen Benedetti. And, late in the evening, against all odds, our minor league system got its first win on the young season. That makes us 1-7 for the organization so far.

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    • That should read 1-6 on the season – Quad Cities’ game got WINTER-ed out yesterday, so no loss yesterday to the Red Sox’s beast of a farm team in Salem.

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  21. I am going to be patient with Giles. He struggled in April 2016 and 2017 so he may just be a slow starter. I remember Ken Giles being our best reliever for the majority of 2017.

    I definitely think the window for A.J. Hinch to win MOY has closed for the foreseeable future. This team is so strong and will be for several more years that, no matter how well the team does during the regular season, it will be expected. This will prevent Hinch from winning this award.

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    • I’m ready to give up on Giles. He may throw hard but after years of watching
      Closers like Joe Sambito, Dave Smith, Billy Wagner, and Brad Lidge I don’t believe Giles has what it takes to be an elite closer.
      LMJ on the other hand may be that guy.

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  22. I think think Hinch should get Manager of the Year if he can manage to win the next two games from the monsters that stomped his little league team last night.

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    • Heck, even the O’s spanked the sloppy Yanks last night and are leading them again today. 1OP, if we get swept by the Padres, maybe it’s time to start thinking about getting a real Manager of the Year.

      And maybe move George down to the 8th slot and put McCann/Stassi at leadoff. Giles to AAA. Lance to AA. (That’s where he left off I think). Definitely send Bregman down for more seasoning. Who have I missed? We should not have to deal with the World Champs playing like chumps.

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      • I’m not ready to talk about individual players. The entire team played lousy last night and it was a team loss.

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  23. Our nephew from Texas is here.
    My son and grandson from Dallas are here.
    My daughter and her family from Kingwood are here.
    Two cousins from Oklahoma are here to turkey hunt.
    And the seven of us who live on the farm are here.
    The menu is deep fried venison, grean beans with bacon, baked beans with bacon, corn on the cob and french fries. Sweet tea.
    Dinner’s at 6 because my son goes on duty at 7, so the Astros will get recorded for later.
    Love to all of you. Have a great evening.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. Thought that Bregman’s comment after the game spoke volumes. He said that when McCann dove headfirst into the camera boxes trying to catch a pop foul, Bregman knew the Astros would win. Contrast that with Ellis standing 20 feet from a popup and never moving. Yes, it should have been caught by Hosmer, but in watching the replay, Hosmer never called for the ball. There were 3 other players closer to the landing spot.

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  25. I’m guessing San Diego will win more games than they lose. There is some real talent on that club and an excellent farm system. Our guys are as flat as they’ve looked since August. But we’re still 7 and 2. We might also have the best # 4 starter in the league. Yuli is coming home in a few days. Everyone is healthy. Things could be worse.

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  26. Cole has been far better than I expected thus far. I haven’t watched the replay yet, but 7 of his 11 K’s in the first game came on fastballs. I’m excited to see him continue the success.

    No matter how many times certain fans tell us Giles is/was amazing, the truth remains that he only has two pitches and is unlikely to add a third. Every year his fastball is mediocre to start the year. Likewise, we’ve seen him pick it up and have explosive life on it in June – August while in an Astros uniform. I truly believe the inability of anyone to throw quality sliders last October prevented him from succeeding. Whether he can improve his ability to locate the fastball to compensate for times his slider is ineffective will determine if he’s going to have a long career or not.

    We got lucky last night. Obviously the Padres played the infielders back deep on that last play, but Ellis either forgot the fact or underestimated how far the ball would travel. Some teams cover that differently, but I can tell you when I played the pitcher would have been sprinting to home plate and the C and 1B would have been converging on the popup.

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    • I guess I’m used to the pitcher calling out who should take it – but that is probably not how they do it anymore. Once Hosmer came sprinting down no one else was going to get close to it.
      So either Hosmer will have a hangover today or he may hit a long tater or two in revenge

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      • Funny thing is that Hosmer, the seasoned veteran, had no need to be sprinting in after that pop. He had plenty of time to get there. That was a play the first baseman makes everyday, except for last night.

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    • Your analysis of Giles is spot on. He has started slow almost every year he’s been in the league. After April last year he was our best reliever until the playoffs. It’s way too early to give up on Giles. Let’s talk around the middle of June and see where he is.

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      • I don’t rule out the guy at some point developing a third pitch. He’s not going to be a Rivera. Even old guys like Morton work on new pitches. Just my opinion, but I’m not sure if Giles has really taken full ownership of being the best possible pitcher he can make himself. 63 appearances during the regular season last year. Should he have been gassed?

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      • The Astros did try and stretch him out in September with multiple inning outings. This may have been a partial cause of his struggles in the playoffs. Also, his worst outings were in the World Series and it seems all pitchers that were ‘slider’ dependent struggled with the allegedly slicker baseballs. I still think Giles will pitch well for us this season, but he will have his detractors along the way and any time he gives up a run he will be vilified (more so than anyone else in our bullpen). For some reason, many Astros fans have really come to dislike Giles and I am not sure why. Devo was horrible in the playoffs as well, but he doesn’t get nearly the vitriol directed at him that Giles does. If your only Astros source is this blog, which is fine by me, you probably don’t understand what I am saying. However, I frequent several blogs as well as Twitter and Facebook and nobody on the Astros gets more hate than Giles.

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  27. The steal of second by Fisher was huge, of course, because it put him in a position to score on the screw up.
    But does anybody recall that, on the 2-2 pitch, Bregman and the umpire got totally frozen on a curve ball that started inside and broke over the inside corner and definitely should have been called strike 3. The pitcher went down into a squat when the ump just stood there with his fist ready to call it a strike, but didn’t. Then the pitcher gathers it all back together, fires a great pitch to get an easy popup from Bregman, and their catcher stands there frozen and watches Hosmer mess up a popup that should never have been his.

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      • I’ve never understood how on a pop up like that where it should have been caught it is not an error – if they tip it with their glove it would be an error

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      • First, it was a home game and the official scorer is unlikely to take away a hit and RBI from Bregman. Second, since there is a different official scorer in every park there are only guidelines. Some plays similar have been ruled errors. One I’ll always remember came against the Red Sox. David Ortiz hit a pop-up into short right field off Yu Darvish and Odor and the RF couldn’t decide who would catch it. The official scorer ruled it an error…because Darvish had a no hitter going at that point. He gave up a hit later in the game so it didn’t really matter. However, Ortiz felt slighted that he wasn’t awarded the hit and challenged the ruling after the season. I think MLB decided to award him the hit rather than fight it because, honestly, they didn’t really care about something so silly.

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  28. And while I am complaining about dumb mlb rules – a Phillies reliever “earned” a save in a 20-1 win because he pitched the last 3 innings.

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  29. Either the Padres’ pitching is the best ever seen anywhere in the world or our guys have just totally forgotten how to swing the bat. There have been as many Astros’ swings and misses since the years of Carter, Castro, and Rasmus.

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  30. Just a reminder that last year Tyson Ross’ ERA was 7.71 and his WHIP was 1.837. He struck out only 36 in 49 IP. And now he’s superman.

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    • Typical when you see a team in an offensive slump. Taking strikes, or missing strikes that are smack in the middle of the strike zone and then swinging at the worst pitch thrown to them. Bregman strikes out on a 3-2 pitch ankle high. Altuve watches two strikes then barely hits a marginal pitch for a ground out.
      They said they haven’t had an extra base hit since MarGo’s double in the second inning Wed afternoon. Seems like that long since they had a hit….

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      • Last April their offense was pretty inconsistent too.
        In 25 games
        – Shut out once
        – Scored one run twice
        – Scored two runs four times
        – Scored three runs four times

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    • I lost my other post for some reason, but I’ve always been high on Stassi despite his poor historical numbers at AAA due to injuries. For some reason I’ve always seen something in him.

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  31. Reddick started the 3 run rally with a single – now in the 6th he hits his own dinger to extend the lead to 4-1.

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  32. Positives – We won, great pitching, Stassi, Reddick
    Negatives – everybody else batting, 32% K rate for 3 games
    Feel we’re lucky to be 8-2. Yuli, please hurry back.

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  33. Mr. Bill – as far as playing better teams last April, they played

    7 games against Seattle (78-84)
    3 games against KC (80-82)
    5 games against Oakland (75-87)
    4 games against LA Angels (80-82)
    3 games against Tampa (80-82)
    3 games against Cleveland (102-60)

    So – about 1/2 against crummy Seattle and Oakland and most of the rest against mediocre – except Cleveland

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    • Hinch said Giles wasn’t going to pitch today since he pitched Friday and Saturday, but I suspect, like the majority of us, he feels more comfortable, right now, with Peacock than anyone else in the bullpen. I know I do. The transformation of Peacock from a pitcher that was on the verge of getting released to one of the best pitchers on a staff littered with great pitchers is absolutely amazing.

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