Once around the rotation with the Astros

Yes, Dallas Keuchel did not pitch as well as his compadres in the Astros 2018 five-man rotation. But it was not like his outing was some unmitigated disaster. It is just that in comparison to four very strong outings by the others, his was middle of the road and came on the day his teammates decided to treat Doug Fister like he was Justin Verlander or Lance McCullers or Gerrit Cole or Charlie Morton….

Verlander. He did allow quite a few fly balls on opening day against the Rangers. He did not quite have his usual one K per inning. But if he repeats his 6 innings, four hits, no runs performance for about 29 more starts, he will not lose a game and that is what it is all about – the results. He will have games where he gives up the long ball, but this was not one of them and that is a good thing as the Astros prevailed 4-1.

Keuchel. The plus side is that even in a loss, he put in six innings and left trailing only 3-1. He got the Rangers to ground into a couple double plays along the way. But a 2nd inning HR by Nomar Mazara put him in a 1-0 hole and when he loaded the bases with nobody out in the 4th, two long sacrifice flies did the rest of the damage and the Astros lost meekly 5-1.

McCullers. Lance gave up two runs in his 5.1 IP of work, but his teammates scored 6 runs while he was in and ended up winning a laugher 9-3 in Arlington. Lance looked sharp as he put up 10 Ks against only one walk and managed to avoid hitting anyone unlike his last start in the seventh game of the World Series. Elvis Andrus cranked a home run against him in the third and then Andrus singled and scored on a Beltre double in the 6th. Those were 3 of the 4 hits he gave up on the day.

Cole. Cole is my new Collin McHugh. Just like I can’t remember how many L’s in Collin, I am struggling with how many T’s in Gerrit. The Rangers wish that was the only struggle they had with Mr. Cole. He gave up an opposite field HR to Joey Gallo in the first and then pitched magnificently, giving up one more hit (to Mr. Andrus of course) in 7 innings paired with 11 Ks for the day. His stuff was nasty and had to have the Arlington club shaking their heads saying – this is the 4th man in the rotation?? The Astros won easily 8-2.

Morton. Salty looked like someone who had gained a lot of confidence in 2017 as he stoned the Orioles in the banner raising home opener of 2018. Morton gave up a couple walks and hit one batter, but only gave up three hits and zero runs in six strong innings. The only drama was a bases loaded jam in the 2nd, where Marwin Gonzalez made a terrific stab of a 2 out line drive to kill the rally. If Morton is your 5th best starter you have one heck of a rotation.

So…..

  • How is your pulse on the rotation as a whole after one quick five game orbit?
  • How do you rank these pitchers 1-5 with a season long view?
  • Any worries about Keuchel?
  • Who is more important to re-sign at the end of this season – Morton or Keuchel?
  • Is this the best rotation in the history of the team?
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98 responses to “Once around the rotation with the Astros”

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  1. I feel Keuchel will probably have his best year in this contract year since the Cy Young year.
    I would keep Morton over Keuchel because of lower cost. Signing Keuchel might keep the Astros from being able to Keep Springer and then Correa, plus there are some youngsters that will compete for his spot.

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  2. The first time through the rotation, every one of our starters was nails except Dallas Keuchel. DK gave up 7 hits and a walk in 6.0 innings. He threw 99 pitches over that 6 innings of work [average pitches per inning 16.5 – which is pretty high for him]. The Rangers’ BA against him was a whopping .333. His velocity was down. He recorded less than one strikeout an inning against a team that is extremely strikeout prone.

    Some say: oh, shut up with your cynicism and stat-fixation- he still had a ‘quality start’! And we still won the series. Okay, okay, okay – I get it. I realize that we are all supposed to be Pollyannas now. I know that happy-happy-happy is the new ‘PC’ requirement for the Blog. But I think even Pollyanna would have to admit that DK did not have anything close to a ‘Fear the Beard’ level start – against a team that every other starter in our stable made look pretty amateurish.

    On the positive side, DK managed to escape a less-than-stellar outing in Arlington having given up only three runs. Was that due to some good pitching in the clutch? Was it just a factor of lady luck? Or was it just the Rangers’ incompetence? Who knows. The fact that 9 of the 18 outs he got were on ground balls was, of course, an encouraging sign. If people hit the ball in the air against DK . . . well, it’s 2016 all over again.

    Now, what does all that mean? It is just WAY too early to tell. Perhaps it just wasn’t D.K’s day – or the Rangers were just ready for him [and boy, was Elvis Andrus ready!]. Or perhaps my ‘don’t count on much from DK in an even-numbered year’ preseason prediction will prove to be right on. It will take a lot more than one start to find out for sure.

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    • Mr. Bill you keep on griping about the flaws in the team and we will keep telling you why you are wrong…..
      I think the biggest concern about Keuchel is the loss in velocity. I know he does not live off his velocity, but we’ve all seen guys who were never power pitchers (think Jered Weaver) who are effective until their velocity falls too far.
      Like I’ve said before, I expect certain folks to regress (e.g. MarGo, Reddick) but they have such depth I’m just not overall worried. Don’t think that makes me Polyanna. And of course the playoffs can be a whole new story – a wobble here, bad bounce or badly timed slump can do your team in.

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  3. Dan,
    Not getting to see all of each game, but from what I can tell you’re spot on. I’m still a little shaky on McHugh and would rather be seeing the one’s in-waiting, but same as Ted, we just have to play this out until the dust settles.

    One note, I met a fella the other day who remarked about my Astros jersey here in Omaha. He said, “I have a friend whose a pitching coach for them – do you know Dyar Miller?” I said sure came over with Strommie from Cards. Then I asked him how much influence Miller had on McQ and Keuchel. He said, “a lot.”

    McHugh still reminds me of the Tim Redding, or Chris Samson type who pitches great for 4 innings and then implodes.

    As for the rest of the rotation, I’m not backing down on McCullers being the head and shoulders best by year’s end. And that’s saying something because if this isn’t a better rotation than 1980 (how romanticized we are with Ryan Richards and Niekro), it may be the best since the 2011 Phillies. As yet to be determined, but early signs are to watch for records breaking.

    I’ve watched several on gamecast which points out that JV, Cole, Morton and LMJ have been throwing knuckle curves. It would appear the staff is sharing grips and all sorts of things they’re getting a feel for!

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  4. My personal ranking of what I expect from the ‘rotation plus’, based upon a combination of ERA, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, and HR/9, IP per start, and win-loss record is:

    1. JV;
    2. Gerrit Cole;
    3. LMJ;
    4. Peacock;
    5. Morton;
    6. Keuchel [if he can stay off the DL, which I doubt]; and
    7. McHugh.

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  5. This is the best Astros rotation I have seen. I would gladly give the ball to any of the five in a playoff game and I rate them highest because of their experience. I think we have had rotations that were as good in the top 4 as far as ability but these five have ability plus experience.
    The game Keuchel lost was a team loss. He was the only pitcher to make a start and not get run support
    There will be games this season where these guys give up runs and will get beat, but this is a rotation that also has five guys in it that can throw a shutout when they take the mound, and that is rare.
    I look for Verlander to have a rebound year because Hinch will give him a break, like he did on opening day by getting him out of there after six innings. I think the Tigers would have ridden that big horse all the way to the end. Hinch has more luxuries and can help save Verlander from so many innings.
    Who would I rather see re-signed, Charlie or Dallas? Jeeze, what a question!
    Both? Who wants any of these guys to walk? But, I have to answer this, so I would like to see the Astros sign Morton to a two year deal, because I think he might actually do it. They are not going to give a 35 year old a QO, so I would like to see them keep him, because his stuff plays in the rotation or the bullpen. Dallas is going to want a 5-year deal and I would rather see Springer get that money as an every day center fielder, if I can’t afford both and have a guy like Rogelio ready to move into the rotation in 2019.
    By playoff time I might like to see Verlander, Cole and LMJ at the top of the rotation , because there will be many big right handed hitters that we face in the playoffs.

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  6. * Is this the best rotation in the history of the team?*

    On paper, considering our 1-7 starters as a whole, it probably is by a mile. But let’s talk about this again in June, after we’ve played 7 games against the Yankees, 7 games against the Indians, 3 against the D-Backs, and a whole bunch against the Angels, Mariners, As, and Rangers.

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  8. It’s nice to know we have so many options/weapons to throw at the competition. We may not win every game but having what I believe to be the best rotation in baseball doesn’t hurt.

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  9. I can’t come to any conclusions at such an early date, but I’m pleased to have seen all five starters keep their team in the game. And 4 of those 5 starts were impressive. I’ve pretty much determined that Dallas will not be an easy guy to sign again, unless he has a bad year, and I don’t want that to happen. My biggest concern would be along the lines of guys like McCullers and Morton and how many innings each can throw. Can they go 180? That said, we’ve got depth that no other club in MLB has. 180 will not be necessary out of everyone. Before the season started, I figured this might well be the best Astro rotation ever. Nothing so far has changed my mind.

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  22. You know you have a good team when your ace gets outpitched by the opponent’s #5 and you still win.
    You know you are a good team when you get outhit by 2 and outscore the opponent by 4.
    When you commit 2 errors to none for your opponent and you still win.
    When your bullpen gives up 6 hits and 2 runs and you still win.
    I think the Orioles were sick and tired of all the WS Champion BS and woke up and played their best game of the year, and the Astros still won.
    When you stop and think of all the stars on this team, don’t leave out Josh Reddick.
    Astros won the series, but it would be great if they could take care of business against Bundy tomorrow.

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    • Texas Hammel-ed Oakland, and the Angels smoked the Indians. We had 37,000 plus defending the Maid and pulled off a big win against the pesky O’s.

      Hmmmmn. There actually could be a statistical correlation between the size of the crowd and a home team’s win-loss record.

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      • I was reading an article about Mr. Hamels contract situation (remember he chose going to the Rangers over the Astros). There are 9 teams that he can be traded to without his permission and the Astros are one of them. Not that we are still interested, but that runs counter to the negative Houston vibe we understood he had previously…..

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      • Dan, he probably assumed that Texas would not deal him to the Astros and therefore “saved” a spot in his veto list.

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  25. Early thoughts. The team stays healthy we have a good chance to win the AL again. However concerns, Bregman at this rate will have 50 errors and The BP has to get a lot tighter/dominant.

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  26. Things I’m thinking early…
    – The Astros will be very good, but they won’t win 135 games as per their current pace
    – Bregman won’t end up with 50+ errors
    – Correa, McCann and Altuve won’t hit over .400 for the season (though if anyone in the world could it would be Altuve)
    – Marwin and Bregman won’t hit under .200 for the season
    – Bregman won’t continue a walk a game
    – Morton won’t end the season with a 0.00 ERA
    – Joe Smith won’t end the season with a 9.00 ERA
    – Marisnick and Reddick won’t tie Correa for the most HRs on the team

    So far the bullpen is the biggest worry, but plainly relievers just don’t pitch the same with a 4 or 5 run lead. They want folks to hit the ball.
    The Orioles were really swinging the bats well last night, but it is like driving your Toyota Camry (like I drive) and suddenly someone passes you with their Ferrari – the Astros offense just is incessant and runs can come from anywhere in the lineup.

    it could be argued that without Reddick and his 6 RBIs plus pulling back in a 3 run homer, they lose 9-4 last night.

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  27. The Angels put SP Matt Shoemaker (who only made 14 starts last season due to injuries) on the DL with a strained forearm
    The M’s put Nelson Cruz on the DL with an ankle injury.

    Probably the last thing the Astros wanted was to have Correa have to sprint around the bases on his bad toe for an inside the park HR in his first AB. They are going to rest him today so he can have two days off in a row.

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  29. In totally off the subject Gose-ian news – I saw where the Giants signed former Astro Jordan Schafer to a minor league contract as a pitcher. Well, we know he does not have much future as an OF.

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  30. Just last year, early in the season, there were some folks clamoring to get Bregman pulled from third base. He’ll never be the prototypical corner infielder, but he did finish with the 5th best fielding percentage at 3rd in MLB, and he did finish with the 6th best range factor. I know there are other far more refined defensive stats, but I’m happy Alex over there. He’s still learning that position and he’ll get better and better over there.

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  31. In two separate articles, I read that
    1. Jordan Jankowski was cut Monday(I think it was one of the LA teams).
    2. Jordan Jankowski will get a WS ring from the Astros.

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  33. Tuesday night wasn’t much different than Monday night
    9,157 saw Texas win in Oakland
    35,007 saw The Angels slaughter Cleveland in LA.
    40,101 saw Seattle beat the Giants in San Fran.

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  34. Well so far Dallas is pairing a slower fastball (mostly 88 and 89 mph) with an inability to get it close enough to be swung at. 1-0 Orioles headed into the bottom of the 1st.

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    • Based on DK’s outings so far there will be no big contract coming his way. Just not impressed with him this year.

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  35. We have all shared this when you throw 88MPH , you have to be so perfect, that’s hard to repeat over and over. I think a lot of us have shared 2018 DK about 12-10 4.00 ERA. That’s not horrible, just not 5 years at 120K.

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    • Those kind of numbers may make him the 5th starter on this staff, replaceable by McHugh or Peacock and possibly tradable for the stretch run.

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      • The strange thing is, as bad as Keuchel’s numbers look in the box score [for him], neither of the Orioles’ runs against him should have ever scored. One scored when Altuve lost a high pop-up in the sun. The other scored on a bad throw to first by Marwin that took the O’s out of an inning-ending double play.

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  36. The bad news is Dallas needed 104 pitches to get thru 5 innings of 5 hit / 4 walk ball. The good news he only gave up 2 runs while scuffling, Can we come back from 2-1 down to take him off the hook? We did not do it last time.

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    • Good to see Marwin atone for his error by squeezing home the tying run, then to see Bregman and Fisher replicate the game winning formula from WS game 5

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  39. Astros scrap to take the lead. Peacock has pitched two strong innings but does Giles come in to protect a 3-2 lead?

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  43. Good move by Hinch to leave Brad in to finish the game. Hinch said in S ring training that there would be many occasions that he would use different guys to close games! The only guy I have reservations about is McHugh…..he doesn’t appear to be too happy in the bullpen. My hope is if they end up trading him (which is NOT what I’d like to happen) he goes to a NL team. I knew you were grinning this afternoon OP!! Your boy took care of business today!! Becky⚾

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    • Becky, I like Brad Peacock and not just because he has become a good pitcher.
      I like Brad because he loves what he’s doing and he has struggled a lot in his career and he is healthy and happy.
      About McHugh. Has he ever looked happy anytime? McHugh is a guy. He’s a decent pitcher and he is being used the way he should be, given the circumstances this team has with starting pitching vs relief pitching. This team has five good starters and Peacock and McHugh. But this team needs reliable relievers and McHugh needs to make himself into one of those. If he does that he is valuable. If he doesn’t, he forces the team to go find someone who will be valuable. It’s up to him. He just got a WS ring last night and he’s making $5 million this year and he is on a team that has a chance to give him another ring and another championship. If he’s not happy now, when will he ever be happy?

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  44. I like the aspect of Peacock coming in for the three innings. If it happens to be that he has to be inserted into the rotation he’ll be ready with these types of outings. Would like to see them do the same with McHugh instead of a 1 inning stint. It keeps the others guys fresh and ready if needed. Most have never been fans of this type of tandem rotation but if it works, then I say why not?
    The guys didn’t hit that well today but the hits were timely. The difference in a winner and scratching your head wondering what happened.

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  45. Keuchel, with 12 hits and 5 walks has allowed 17 baserunners in 11 innings. He’s living on the edge early.

    Stassi is my best surprise to date. He looks like he’s been there before.

    If Bregman keeps on drawing so many walks, he’ll be hitting soon.

    If Jake keeps striking out so much he won’t. I’m used to him getting off to a quick start.

    If Gattis finished the season hitting .261 with a .346 OBP and a .781 OPS, I’d take it right now. But I think he’ll do more.

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  46. The Astros lead all of baseball in BA, OBP, and OPS from the Catcher position. But what does that mean, really?
    It means that the Astros are also tied for #1 in runs scored by their catchers.
    Runs scored usually means more wins.
    That is a good thing, right?
    The Astros are 29th in all of baseball in production from the 1B position. They are horrible, but Baltimore is the worst. So what do the Astros do about that? Yuli will be back when the Astros take on the Rangers in Houston a week from Friday. Until then, we just hope our catchers continue to play good to make up for our first basemen.
    Remember I talk about trends, rather than stats before we hit the ten game mark when things start to level out. The Astros are trending toward where they were offensively last season as a team and other teams who were hot for a few games are now trending down to where they are getting closer to where they are expected to be.
    One thing I learned last year was not to get down when we lose, but always stay high when we win. I’m hoping the team is that way, too.
    Today, Bundy out-pitched Keuchel and the Astros still won. Fisher was at 1B with two outs and an 0-2 count on Bregman. But Baltimore’s pitcher threw three staight fastballs outside of the zone to Bregman because he was worried about Fisher and, sure enough, Fisher stole second on ball 3.
    Then the pitcher made a mistake and Bregman made him pay by knocking in the winning run.
    Not to mention that the World Champion Astros managed to tie the game with a safety squeeze bunt.
    The Astros are not playing great baseball, but they will.

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  47. Tomorrow night the Astros face the Padres and Luis Perdomo. Only one Astro – Josh Reddick – has ever faced him and he was 4 for 5 with a HR.

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    • Note if by some miracle you won this ring (plus 4 Astro tickets and a jersey) you cannot re-sell any part of the prize (ring, tickets, jersey) without offering it back to the Astros Foundation for the sum of $1

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  49. Interesting nod to Jeff Luhnow by current Card…
    Tommy Pham chatted with MLB.com’s Bill Ladson about his rise to prominence and his ongoing battle with keratoconus — an eye disorder characterized by the progressive thinning of the cornea. Interestingly, Pham said he gives a huge amount of credit to current Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, who, during his days in the Cardinals front office, was the first to set up the initial test that diagnosed Pham with his condition. “He just always believed I was too good of an athlete to struggle in this game,” said Pham. “…I hit a lot of home runs, but I struck out a lot, and Jeff thought it was my vision rather than my actual swing. … sure enough, he was right.”

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  50. Baby ‘Stros start their season tonight.

    Low A: Quad Cities [whose roster includes J.B. Bukauskas, Michael Papierski, and Jonathan Arauz] opens at home against Cedar Rapids [a Twins’ affiliate]. Patrick Sandoval will toe the rubber for our River Bandits. Game time 5:35 pm CDT.

    High A: Buies Creek [whose roster includes Carson Larue, Corbin Martin, Hector Perez, Chuckie Robinson, Ronnie Dawson, and Abraham Toro-Hernandez] is on the road vs. Salem [a Red Sox affiliate]. Jorge Alcala pitches for the Astros. Game time 6:05 CDT.

    AA: Corpus Christi [whose roster includes Forrest Whitely (suspended), Cionel Perez, Riley Farrell, Akeem Bostick, and the mystery catcher from Cuba, as well as Ryne Birk and Nick Tanielu] is on the road vs. the NW Arkansas Naturals [a Royals’ affiliate]. Framber Valdez is the Hooks’ hurler. Yuli Gurriel is expected to be in the line-up in a rehab role. Game time 6:25 CDT.

    AAA: Fresno [whose stacked roster includes Frances Martes, Rogelio Armenteros, David Paulinon, James Hoyt (rehabbing), Garrett Stubbs, Tyler White, Tony Kemp, A.J. Reed, and some guy people have started calling ‘Ted’] travels to Reno to take on the Aces [a D’back affiliate]. Mike Hauschild gets the start for the Grizzly Tacos. First pitch 8:35 pm CDT.

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    • Thanks for the update Mr. Bill, some of those names we know well, some we have heard a bunch and some may become important over the next few years. Go Little ‘Stros!

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