Remember the classic Ronald Reagan advertising campaign in 1984: It’s morning again in America! Regardless what you think about Republicans and what you may have thought about his agenda, Reagan’s theme struck a chord with a country sick and tired of being sick and tired.
Well, borrowing from the theme, It’s April again in Houston! The team that stormed through the majors in the first two months of the 2017 season is back!
Only a month ago, the Astros were a mess. Injuries, slumps, questions about the lineup and even A.J. Hinch‘s ability to manage down the stretch were all being questioned in some corners.
- Would Hinch step up to the plate, gain control of the clubhouse and make a difference down the stretch?
- Would that potentially star-studded rotation be able to put it all together?
- Who would be in the playoff rotation? Heck, for that matter, who would be healthy enough to start a game in the playoffs?
- Could the injured Astros recover to the form that made them the best team in the majors in April and May?
- Should Tyler Clippard, Michael Feliz, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, Tony Sipp, Lance McCullers Jr. and Francisco Liriano make the playoff roster?
Here are a few answers as the -lore begins to build.
On A.J. Hinch.
The Astros’ field general may have already managed his way into Houston’s manager-lore. With some gutsy moves in the first series, Hinch has begun to prove he belongs with the Dierkers and the Virdons. He’s had three winning seasons in Houston and already is seventh on the all-time managerial list. You gotta love the all-in Verlander-in-relief move and the Carlos Beltran pinch hit late in Monday’s game.
The Verlander Effect.
Verlander has already pitched himself into Houston memories. He’s already surpassed Randy Johnson‘s Astros’ iconian tenure, and he’s moving close to the 2005 Roger Clemens tales (remember the 15th inning relief appearance) and closing in on other remarkable Astros’ pitchers like Mike Scott and Roy Oswalt. Now, what do you think about Dallas Keuchel complaining about not getting an ace back in July? And perhaps the best news about Verlander is that he’ll be around Houston for a couple more years!
The parallel 2005 Universe.
Can you compare Verlander’s relief appearance to Clemens’ relief in the 2005 ALDS? How ’bout Alex Bregman‘s home run to Lance Berkman/Brad Ausmus‘ home runs? This team has Super Everyday Sub Marwin Gonzalez. The 2005 team had Eric Bruntlett and Jose Vizcaino. And the “lore” continues…
Okay, here are some questions to get you started to the ALCS.
- Hinch left off McHugh and a few others. What roster changes do you make going into a potential seven-game series?
- Yankees or Indians?
- What’s the biggest question facing Hinch heading into the ALCS? Rotation? Roster? Something else?
- Who starts games 3 and 4 on the mound?
- This team has a little more to prove, but where does it line up with the ’80, ’86, ’98 and ’04/’05 Houston teams?
- Verlander, Jose Altuve, Bregman and others have already begun to set the bar for the post-season-lore. Which players either already deserve to be or will be compared with the best-ever off-season memories once the season is complete?
- And, looking way ahead: Who will be the best bargain in 2018? Gonzalez at $5 million or Altuve at $6 million. The answer is pretty obvious, but what bargains! What are the odds that either option will not be picked up?
CHIPALATTA 
I’ll write more tomorrow – but Alex Bregman’s contribution is the closest to playoff lore. His first swing in the playoffs goes yard, breaks the ice and sets the team on a two game roll.
His home run today ties up a game that looked like another heart breaking loss and gives his teammates the momentum they need to put the game away.
Both of these home runs came when the team might have been a bit tight. These home runs did not come against Kyle Farnsworth but against arguably the best pitcher in the AL, Chris Sale.
Huge and memorable.
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You reminded me that Bregman’s first at bat of the ALDS was a homer off a Chris Sale change up. His last at bat of the ALDS was a homer off a Chris Sale change up. What are the odds of that happening?
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Bregman came to play. PERIOD!!
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In college, whenever one of our pitchers would throw a change-up in a situation like those, our head coach would yell out from the dugout, “What are you trying to do? Trick him?” The lesson is that when you as a pitcher are better than the hitter you go after him with your good stuff and don’t do somethings silly like speeding up his bat with an off speed pitch or getting beat on your third best offering.
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Concur”Dilly Dilly”
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Celebrating in South Africa!
JUS-TIN greater than MOO-KIE!
Oh, and just look at the series BAs of their 1-2-3 vs ours.
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Ah! So you are the one reading in South Africa! I saw that on the admin and wondered who that was! Hope you’re enjoying in Capetown!
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Chip, I am about 200 miles to the East at George. This weekend I will be even farther up the coastland, at Richard’s Bay. Hopefully, I will be back in the States in time for an Astros world series.
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The Astros did not have a stolen base in the ALDS.
But, I do not remember them making a baserunning mistake the entire series. They had I caught stealing, but that is not a mistake, it’s a caught stealing.
I don’t recall them getting thrown out trying to advance or getting picked off.
They also played real good defense.
They could stand to pitch better.
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So, you’re saying there were no TOOTBLANS? I like it!
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From Paul Richards to Ed Wade, let’s put “lore” next to Luhnow. When the Zach Brittany trade for a quality reliever fell through, he went and go one from Detroit.
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I like Tim’s idea of adding McHugh, dropping White.
Only reason to root for Yankees is home field advantage.
Altuve and Bregman, 5 homers from our smaller guys.
And for those who have not seen or read it….
http://mlb.com/r/article?ymd=20171009&content_id=258041670&vkey=news_hou&c_id=hou
Hinch’s Post game interview
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Good interview for Hinch.
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Thanks – great interview – thoughtful questions and answers.
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I agree on the only reason to root for the Yankees. They are a very scary team and one that we will be battling for AL supremacy for the next 2-3 years. I am not sure if I would rather play them or the Indians. I think the Astros can beat either, but it will be a dogfight no matter who we play.
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Just finished looking at all the highlights and interviews for the last hour. Boy was that fun.
Would like to see McHugh on the roster so rotation for the #3 and #4 starters is probably it. Line up is pretty much a given. I have no problem with McHugh and Morton or Peacock pitching but we’ll probably see McHugh/Morton. I might be inclined to leave Liriano or Gregerson off instead of a position player.This was a total team effort even though Bregman really came through. That is what winning teams do. And finally, it’s Altuve, hands down but at 5MM Marvin is like having a top of the line car for a bottom of the line car price.
We know there’s going to be some money issues after next year but maybe some of these guys will give us a discount to keep the team together. But that’s after next year. For now let’s beat our next two opponents.
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Answers…
Hinch left off McHugh and a few others. What roster changes do you make going into a potential seven-game series? I do think it would be good to have McHugh who pitched very well in the 2015 playoffs on the roster. I think you would drop Fisher – to me redundant to Maybin.
Yankees or Indians? As my post of a week or so ago said “It Just Doesn’t Matter”. We had to beat 3 very good to excellent teams to win it all. Now we have to beat two.
What’s the biggest question facing Hinch heading into the ALCS? Rotation? Roster? Something else? I think bullpen usage and pecking order. It is tough – you want to use Devenski a lot, but I feel like the more he is exposed to the same team over a short time frame – the better they figure him out.
Who starts games 3 and 4 on the mound? Now that everyone has their jitters done – I have no problem utilizing Peacock and Morton again. I also don’t have a problem with sliding McHugh into Peacock’s spot and use Brad as a high leverage multi-inning tool out of the bullpen
This team has a little more to prove, but where does it line up with the ’80, ’86, ’98 and ’04/’05 Houston teams? This is as good or better a “team” from top to bottom as any team they have ever tossed out there.
Verlander, Jose Altuve, Bregman and others have already begun to set the bar for the post-season-lore. Which players either already deserve to be or will be compared with the best-ever off-season memories once the season is complete?
Altuve is hitting over .500 even with a 0 for 4 yesterday. Correa had the 2 homers and could go off on a Beltranesque run at any time. Gurriel has been a line drive machine. I love Bregman – totally fearless.
And, looking way ahead: Who will be the best bargain in 2018? Gonzalez at $5 million or Altuve at $6 million. The answer is pretty obvious, but what bargains! What are the odds that either option will not be picked up? Altuve is the biggest bargain in the majors. I wonder if they look to sign him longer term this off-season.
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I love it that the Yanks beat Cleveland and extended the series. I hope Kluger (sp) gets used and so will not be able to start against the Stros in the first two games.
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Roster: Add McHugh, drop Fisher.
Team: Doesn’t matter. Both are solid. Maybe a nod to NY, that goes out the window if they advance.
Question for Hinch: Who will be hot or cold.
Starters: Morton and McHugh with even a shorter lease, especially on ability to throw strikes.
Historically: They have to advance at least to WS to be better than others.
Memories: Again, have to get to WS.
Bargain: Obviously to date Altuve. This may prove to be no bargain if it causes Boras to move him. They both will be here in 2018.
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As for who we play, the winner of the series between NY and Cleveland will be the best team. It doesn’t matter who wins because we are going to play whoever is the best team.
Who would I rather see the Astros play? I would rather see them play the Yankees, not because I think they would be easier to beat, but because of the drama of playing them. We would have McCann and Beltran playing against their old team. We would have all the media coverage that goes with the Yankees. We just came out the winner in a series where every announcer was for the Red Sox and we now have some respect because of it. And there is the idea that we could have as many as four games in our own stadium rather than just three.
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Doesn’t really matter to me who we play. I was pulling for the Yanks yesterday just so the series would be extended to five games. Now if only that game tomorrow would go about 15 innings.
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My friends are probably not going to like this and it would probably never happen in a million years, but the change I would like for the Astros to make in their roster is to substitute another relief pitcher with filthy stuff for Derek Fisher. Martes.
Now that Peacock and Morton have had their playoff debut in front of a raucous road crowd, I would let them be game 3 and 4 starters and have LMJ in the bullpen, since he now has made a relief appearance in a playoff game. Martes is in there because Justin Verlander won’t be available to come into game 4 or 5 in relief and I would like a fresh live arm to be able to get me an inning or two when I need it.
I love McHugh, but I don’t want him coming out of the bullpen to get us out of an impossible situation and we already have our four starters, so give me another 97 mph fastball with a nasty slider to use out of the bullpen.
Yeah, I know, I know.
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Be surprised that I like this suggestion – but feel like Hinch needs to be talked through how this plays out…and you may disagree with my reasoning We won that game yesterday because Morton pitched out of a bases loaded jam with no outs in the second inning. In that situation you want your pitcher to get the first out via strikeout or pop-up. Check. You want that second out via strikeout, popup, or a groundball that can be converted into a double play. Check. Then you just want to get the third out, which he did. If I’m adding Martes to the roster, then I’m not using him for more than one out. His job is to come out, throw smoke, and get a strikeout when I need it. If you think he can do it…then it’s a solid move, although I still want that defensive OF replacement.
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You have the defensive outfield replacement already in Maybin. The only way I would use him would be to protect a lead by moving Marwin to 1B and inserting Maybin in the outfield.
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Not to be argumentative but Martes can’t come in and walk one or two. That was my note above. When Martes is ON, Yes. But if he is the Wild Thing, there goes the game.
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Who to add/drop? It depends on what Hinch is going to do. If you want Peacock and Morton to be your 3rd and 4th starters you need to trust them to pitch. I’d like McHugh instead of Centeno. The Indians have a few guys who can run, but don’t that often. The Yankees have Gardner and Ellsbury, but I’m more worried about long balls from that team.
I think dropping Fisher would be a mistake. The Indians starting pitching is fantastic. The Yankee bullpen is fantastic. Whichever team advances would look to be a match-up that screams tight games. I want a extra defensive replacement / pinch runner. Marwin has done a fantastic job, but it’s not fair to expect him to make plays on balls like the one that hit off his glove in game 3. It is fair to expect Maybin/Fisher to make that catch.
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And to reply to you, I say Maybin is your late inning defensive replacement in the outfield already, and that Cleveland has five RH starting pitchers and the Yankees have only CC Sabathia as a LH starter and that means that Beltran and Marwin are going to be in the starting lineup most of the time because Hinch will want our productive LH bats in that lineup against their RH starters.
As far as Marwin’s defense, after seeing Mookie Betts make two huge critical mistakes in the outfield that greatly affected his team’s ability to win two games, I don’t see Marwin’s one hiccup as an indication of something to be scared of.
If someone were to sustain an injury during the series, Fisher could be brought back.
Against either one of these team’s bullpens, I don’t want Fisher pinch hitting. I’d rather Maybin or Gattis.
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Beltran, McCann, and Gattis are all guys you may want to pinch run for at a crucial time. If you burn Maybin for any of them then you lose the opportunity for a defensive replacement in the outfield. I’m not sold that Marwin needs to be replaced late in a game – he’s done well and made strong, accurate throws when given the chance. Still, games in CLE or NY would feature left fields with considerably more ground to cover. It’s something to consider. I agree that we don’t really want to use any of Maybin, Fisher, or Centeno as a pinch hitter.
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Devin, I’m not replacing Marwin. I’m putting Maybin in for better defense in the outfield and moving Marwin to 1B for better defense there. That leaves Marwin, a switch hitter who can face a LH or RH reliever late in the game and gets Gurriel out of the infield because he doesn’t cover as much ground at 1B as Marwin does.
By the way, if the Astros are behind late they can still use Maybin as a pinch runner and not change the defense.
The Astros had to use a lot of relievers, even though they won 3 of four games. I have seen Marwin, Maybin, Gattis and Beltran all play LF. In a pinch you use what you have. But in a seven game series, you may need an extra reliever on a team that wore down 2 or three of their relievers to the point that they had to use Verlander as a reliever in game 4.
Believe me, my first choice to add to the roster is Brad Hand. And I know Martes is a risk. But after Sunday Devenski is a risk too. I would rather have another pitcher to choose from out of the bullpen and maybe that guy is McHugh.
I’m just going along with the blog and throwing ideas against the wall. I doubt mine sticks.
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I agree with you on the pitching. Honestly, though, I got the impression talked himself into Verlander being the only option out of the pen. The story from JV was that he was asked that morning if he could come in if the game was delayed and there would be a restart. It will be a tough decision.
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Intersting how a season plays out. Six months ago, who’d have thought we’d be discussing playoff rosters that included — or should or should not include — Verlander, White, Centeno, Fisher, Liriano. And supporting Peacock as the #3 starter with McHugh not on the roster an McCullers not in the playoff rotation discussion. What a difference 162 games make!
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Add to the lore part of crazy baseball. JD Martinez and Altuve came up at same time. Altuve has been solid and has earned $13 million. JD was cut and has been paid $23 million. What are the chances JD makes more than Altuve’s $6 million in 2018?
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What are the chances Altuve would trade his career and income for JD’s career and income, thus far? I think Altuve is going to have a fabulous HOF-type career and make a lot of money.
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If he remains injury free and plays another 10 years at this level he’ll be a first ballot HOF guy, easily.
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We all know how much the Astros depend on advanced metrics in making personnel decisions. The Indians are 26th in MLB in wOBA against fastballs of 96+ MPH and the Yankees are 24th. Don’t be surprised to see McCullers moved back to the rotation and Martes added to the bullpen. I know everyone is going to cringe at the thought of adding Martes, but his strength, which is his heater, is a perfect match for the weaknesses of the Yankees and Indians hitters. I am not saying it will happen, but just saying not to be surprised if it does.
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That is pertinent info. Really good stuff, Tim
I’ve been talking Martes, but it was because of his stuff and not because of the opposition. You gave the vision some color.
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Tim, where do the Astros stand in that wOBA against those power pitches?
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There’s an article in the Washington Post that addresses this
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/10/10/the-astros-should-root-for-the-indians-over-the-yankees-in-the-alds/
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We are 6th. You can find this info on Statcast.
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Sandy please share if Martes in in the 25.
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Cleveland has not faced Martes yet. The Yankees saw him for 5 innings and get two runs against him, but also struck out 7 times. Just food for thought.
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Lord, I’m going to need a sedative if Martes is pitching.
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Sandy, I probably should get a sedative for even suggesting it.
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In the end I don’t think they will put Martes on the ALCS roster, but I bet he is being considered. I just doubt they want to put a 21-year rookie into the pressure cooker like this. With that being said, I really love Martes’ competitive fire and I don’t think the moment would be too big for him.
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I like his fire too. It’s just too soon to be thrown onto the playoff stage.
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I like his fire also, would like it more when he learns how to pitch not throw.
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As to a previous comment, I don’t agree with Beltran over Gattis as DH. In certain situations, yes, but I don’t think he should get a start ahead of Gattis.
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Gattis is a streaky hitter. When he gets on a hot streak, look out. Right now it feels like he is having good at bats and ready to really bust it open.
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I don’t think my nephew makes the cut for the ALCS. Really, all he brings to the table is a right handed bat. Pinch hitting opportunities will be limited. He’s not a runner. He’s not a defender and we’ve already got four infielders who will play every inning of every game unless we have a blow out or heaven forbid an injury.
This being a seven game series, we can petty much assume 12 arms, right? Martes intrigues, but McHugh is the guy with experience and a pretty good track record in big games. And he does have that cerebral mentality which should not allow him to be intimidated by the moment. So he gets my ball in game 4, unless weather delays allow for 1 or 2 to come back sooner.
Looking at it from another angle, Harris only got 2/3 of an inning against the Sox. I’d rather have him in there to get a lefty out than Liriano. So if you really want to find a place for Francis, consider leaving the new guy off the roster. I don’t think that will happen though.
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The Astros seem obsessed with having to throw a left handed pitcher against a left handed batter even though some of our right handed pitchers do a better job.
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Even though I’m sentimental to Beltran for everything he means to baseball, his teammates and to his country of PR, the thing that struck me most about his big hit off the green monster was his coolness under pressure. He was the only guy on the field in every big moment who “acted like he’s been there before.” Think about that. The coolest dude on the field, for sure.
That’s the impression I got of him all season. And to see the respect he gets from every player, umpire and opposing team is clearer than day. He may have cost a lot of money, but to see the only living player/coach, perhaps ever again, is truly a sight. I’m really cherishing his influence. To top it off, when was the last interview you saw a guy of his toughness weeping like a child over the devastation of his family and friends? He’s a very real human being, and for many years Houstonians made themselves believe he was all about the money by leaving to the Mets in 2005.
It may well have been his wife’s influence to leave, as much as Kate Upton saying, “let’s go to Houston!”
Anyway, I’m glad we have veteran leadership in McCann Gurriel (a rookie?!) Reddick and Verlander. Being there and having done it consistently, showing the young fellas how to hone their routine. And most importantly, how to win.
The biggest key to this season’s success has to be, however, our depth. It allowed us to rest, and keep relatively healthy enough that we’re actually considering leaving Feliz, Martes and McHugh off the roster. The orchestration of that alone, amidst all the criticism Hinch has taken by inserting innings-eaters instead of best available, is truly masterful and gutsy. He’s got thick skin, and so do his players!
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John Farrell was fired by the Red Sox this morning. He spent his last innings as manager in the clubhouse, after being ejected in game 4.
Farrell is fired and Bannister isn’t.
Baseball.
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Dang….that’s sad. I hope he’s able to manage again, I really like him. Yeah, doesn’t make sense that he was let go, and the idiot with the arlington little league still has a job. That’s baseball I guess.
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Crazy – but they are so impatient up there. Thought he had done a good job for that team – guys like Pedroia playing hurt could not bring their normal numbers to that team. Oh well I hope they come up with someone who is not as good…
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Brad Mills BLAAAA
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This decision makes me very thankful we have Crane and Luhnow as our owner and GM. They didn’t panic when the vast majority of fans wanted Hudgens fired after last year and they don’t overreact in the moment. They make calculated decisions based upon the plan. Personally, I can’t think of a better owner/GM combo I want for my favorite baseball team.
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Brian McTaggart says Francis Martes is working out with the team after returning to Houston from Florida. Could be a roster candidate for the ALCS.
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I’ll be impressed if the Cubs can regroup at this point.
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DiDiiiiii!!!
Looks like we might be at home for the playoffs!!!
I love it
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Yankees are a dangerous group. Down 2 games after losing in 13 innings when they should have won in regulation, most teams would have packed it in. Indians are on the ropes right now.
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CC has sort of turned into a very large version of DK
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The Indians melted down in the field at the worst possible time and are losing by 3 in the 9th.
The last time the Indians lost 3 in a row …. August 1
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Yankees plated 2 more runs off Cory Allen, and barring some unbelievable meltdown from Chapman, looks like we will stay home tomorrow! I have *N E V E R* rooted for the spit, spit, spit Yankees….but I did tonight😛!!
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Bring on the Yankees 🙂
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Big key against the Yankees is to do offensively what we did to the Boston starters. Get to them early and then wear the pen down!
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EXACTLY!!
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Our opponent for the ALCS series is the New York Yankees. Who would have thunk it? Well we beat Boston and their media allies and now it’s time to do the same the the New Yorker’s. I’ll have to put up with all of those Yankee fans here in the “Old North State”.
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Home field advantage is really nice, but don’t underestimate this Yankees team. That bullpen is freaking awesome and it’s going to be a dogfight. I think the Astros win, but it will probably take at least 6 games.
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I predict Astros in 6. This is going to be rough, but…I have a confession…I didn’t think we were going to get past the Indians at all!
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If the Astros win I think it will take 7 games. Look at their playoff history: have they ever made it easy?
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Chapman Lifetime vs Astros: 13 IP, 11 ER, 2.231 WHIP
Bettances lifetime vs Astros: 10.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 BB, 1.219 WHIP
Yankees pitching staff this season vs Astros: 61 IP. ERA 5.75, 1.443 WHIP
Astros know how to hit against the NYY pitchers, even their fireballing relievers.
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No Andrew Miller, no Cory Klubler, no Trevor Bauer, no Code Allen!!! ***YAY***!!!
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The Astros were forced to move to the AL against their will and the will of their fans.
Now, the Astros are playing the Yankees for the AL pennant.
Baseball.
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Doesn’t it feel *delicious*!!!
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Thursday morning we are going to have to come up with a plan and a roster to beat the Yankees in a seven game series to get to the World Series.
Sweet dreams!
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Baseball is a funny game. If Cleveland hadn’t taken over the best record in the AL they would probably have beaten the Red Sox. Go figure.
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Astute observation Sandy. Like it
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Since I’m unable to like posts, I just wanted to say that this is a great observation.
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That is such a great point
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I wonder how the Yankees would have fared against us. I was saying during September I was not concerned with getting the best record in the A.L. I wanted to play Boston in the ALDS as I felt it was a much better matchup for the Astros and it looks like it turned out that way. We may have beaten the Yankees, but I would rather have faced them in a 7-game series with them having to go 5 games in the previous series.
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Since McCann spent the last few years catching the Yankees pitching staff, he can go over the pitchers with the guys and let our guys know what they throw! I love having that guy on our team!!
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I also like McCann because he got traded to the Astros as a result of not being needed any more. I don’t think McCann will just be super forcused behind the plate. I think he will be hunting at the plate. Both of these stadiums have right field makeup made for McCann.
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We are going to Game 1 and Game 2 this weekend. If they can win the first 2 games they would really only need to win 1 in NY to be relatively safe in becoming A.L. Champions.
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Tanaka is starting game 1 for the Yankees, followed by Severino, Sabathia and Gray.
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Over an entire season the Yankees have had better pitching than the Astros and the Astros have had better hitting.
The Astros need to hit against Yankee pitchers. They need to hit like they have hit all year. The Indians did not hit in the ALDS like they had all season.
As far as the Astros pitching, the Astro just need to pitch like they have since Verlander joined the team. The Astros pitching got better with the addition of Verlander.
These are two hot teams and it should be a great series. The Astros season record paid off with the home field advantage in the ALCS. All the hard work has given them that edge. it is up to them to carry all the things they have learned into this series and I think they are ready.
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Washington blows their chance to beat the Cubs when they get a base runner picked off of first base by the catcher with two outs and the tying run on second with Trea Turner at the plate, ahead in the count.
Washington continues to beat themselves every year.
Cubs will face the Dodgers.
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