The Astros’ rotation: A reason they can go deep into the playoffs

In 2016, the Astros’ starting pitching had a 4.06 ERA which was fifth in the AL and 1.29 WHIP which was sixth in the AL. Their starters were pretty good over the whole year, but not good enough especially with the late season Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers problems.

In 2017 the starting pitching through Saturday was almost the same as 2016 with a 4.17 ERA for fifth in the AL and a 1.27 WHIP which is tied for fourth in the league. Yet this is definitely a time when overall stats do not tell the whole story.

Part of the story is addition by subtraction. In the playoffs, Mike Fiers and his 5.22 ERA, who has started the most games (28) for this team in 2017 will not be starting any games and may not be in the bullpen. Joe Musgrove who had a horrible 6.12 ERA in his 15 starts has morphed into a super setup man after his move to the bullpen. David Paulino who suffered a pharmaceutical malfunction had a nasty 6.52 ERA in six starts this season. Those folks will not be driving the starting rotation’s ERA upward.

And there is addition by addition times two. Justin Verlander came over to the Astros on August 31st and has been a beast since then with four dominant wins. But beyond that he has made the rest of the rotation better.

  • From August 31 to September 23, a period when the Astros were 16-6, the starting pitchers (not named Fiers) have been 12-3 with a 2.31 ERA.
  • In those 20 appearances the non-Fiers starters have given up one or fewer runs 11 times and two or fewer runs 17 times. That is just impressive. Even in the massacre in Oakland where the pitching gave up 41 runs in four games, the starters were only responsible for 11 earned runs.
  • Verlander has looked like someone who smells a chance at a WS ring as he has been 4-0 with a microscopic 0.64 ERA and 0.571 WHIP and a nasty 10.3 K/9 IP to go with a great 1.6 BB/9 IP.

And of course there is addition by addition in getting healthy Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh back and possibly All-Star Lance McCullers. Oh and the third guy in the rotation should be Brad Peacock who has been brilliant in a season he almost started as a DFA. His 12-2 record and 2.98 ERA has been the kind of performance out of nowhere that a championship team often trips upon. And there is Charlie Morton who was solid this season except for one injury time out and has been very good in the second half of the season with a 7-4 record and 3.48 ERA after the All-Star break.

Bottom line: Whether the Astros hit the postseason with or without McCullers in their rotation, they have an ace and four or five kings to choose from….

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138 responses to “The Astros’ rotation: A reason they can go deep into the playoffs”

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  2. Verlander and keuchel are locks. Peacock should be #3 because of the obvious, but I’ll spell it out. He has multiple pitches to throw, good control, and the mental attitude to “pitch”. A #4 could be McHugh or Morton. LMJ – No way, no how, should he start a playoff game. He’s young and has good stuff but this is about winning and he’s not there yet.
    Nice game for Hinch last night. What the hell is the matter with him, bringing in Martes? I told a patron at the sports bar last night when Martes came in, you might as well mark up a crooked number for the Angels. His control is non-existent and his fastball has no movement. Hoyt, not much better but I’d rather have Hoyt in than Martes. Devo was just snake-bit last night but his location was off too.
    If we can JFSF back, he needs to play and not Maybin. Aside from his 1st couple of games where hit hit HR’s, he has not impressed.

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    • McCullers had no business pitching as a starter last night. Start McHugh and get 6 or seven out of him. Jeeze sometimes Hinch flummoxes me with his decisions. Two and possibly three of the double, hit by the Angels last night to left field, would have been singles or caught for outs if the $%@**$ outfield shifts were not on!

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  3. I feel good out the pitching JV DK BP maybe Morton as SP, LMJ in the pen he hs no faith in his fastball so he could get by with his curve for an inning maybe 2.

    Martes is young maybe has good stuff No mas this year, and please send Gudian, however you spell it, to the Rockets D league.

    Hinch sucked so bad last night , nice job on fan appreciation night , giving that one away, I would have been very upset, if I was there

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  4. You know what doesn’t make me confident? It seems like Keuchel has walked in a ton of runs and made a ton of errors since returning from the DL. He’s our guy who has 3 gold gloves and dominated in 2015 on the way to a Cy Young because he didn’t make mental mistakes. If he comes focused and doesn’t give away runs I like our chances.

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  5. I have a question, WHERE is Feliz?? Haven’t seen or heard from him since he came of the DL. I can’t tell you how angry I was with the bullpen choices last night. I think (my thoughts only) that McCullers is going to be VERY angry and dissapointed when he finds out he’s not gonna be in the post season rotation. So…..where IS Feliz??

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  6. It’s no secret that I’ve had ongoing disagreement with some Chronicle sports writers.
    In yesterday’s paper I was offended by Brian Smith’s political stand on the NFL’S stance on kneeling during our National Anthem……
    I wrote a small email suggesting he stick with reporting sports, and immediately he fired back that if I didn’t like his article, don’t read it. The Chronicle is losing subscription’s, so fast it’s not funny…..so I wrote him back and told him I would be HAPPY to cancel my daily paper. I’m going to call the editor this afternoon, and read him the response I got back from Mr. Smith. I was voicing my opinion that if you are a sports writer….stick with sports. I’ve already called the Chronicle to cancel my daily paper. I have been with them for 50yrs…..not anymore.

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    • I was offended by that article as well. I will not support the NFL or the NBA as long as they continue to,disrespect our country. If baseball goes down that road I’ll drop them as well.
      I guess these fools don’t need the military to go fight for them anymore.

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    • The Chron has turned into a liberal mouthpiece like the majority of print media these days. I don’t live in Houston, but if I did I definitely would not subscribe to the Chronicle.

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  7. Giving up the NBA was a long term deal.
    Giving up the NFL is not going to be easy for me.
    Giving up Brian T Smith and the Chron is a simple deal.
    This morning I started looking into raising my own pig for some good pork. I might raise it for my daughter so she doesn’t get too attached. That has never been a problem for me when feeding out calves. I’m glad we(as a people) don’t eat dogs. I love dogs.
    Next thing is I’m going to try raised beds instead of a garden to try to concentrate better on the plants making more product and limiting the amount of space I have to maintain.
    But first, I need a compost pile.

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  8. I think I need to take a break from this blog for a while. I’m obviously on the wrong end of the political spectrum here and cannot throw my own 2 cents in as I really dont want to offend.

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    • BC and all. I had a long, long conversation with my granddaughter. She was offended by the lack of support of the Steelers for the Army veteran.

      I am a Vietnam vet. No one owes me even a thank you. It was my honor to serve a country that I love. But we can’t serve for our rights and freedoms without extending those rights to ALL Americans. I disagree with these manner of protests but completely agree that is their right and privilege. I quit reading the “spit” about the time Chipalatta was born.

      So no one that wants to talk Astros needs to be silenced here. But let’s not require we all vote for the same political party to love the Astros or America.

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  9. Folks – I would ask that we swerve away from politics here. I am a very conservative person, but frankly I come to this blog to get away from the conflict and problems out in the world. I don’t think we should be making folks uncomfortable over these things from either side of the spectrum – let’s stick to Astros – please, please, please.

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  10. Thank you Sandy – I know we have all have strong feelings about what is happening and we are coming here from very different angles and carry different burdens. But what makes this fun here is having different opinions about our team – at least it is to me.

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  11. My apologies if I offended anyone. My hope is that the Chronicle realizes how strongly their readers feel about stuff he writes that has nothing to do with sports.
    I honestly hope Mr. Smith is removed from writing about the Astros, and he keeps his views to himself. Like said, this is not the first time he and I have locked horns.
    And I cancelled my subscription today. Fondly, Becky⚾

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  12. Not that it’s that important to me, but these guys only need one more win against the arlington little league to take the “Silver Boot”. My hope is they sweep the arlington little league…..that would be the cherry on top of this magical season!!

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  13. It’s been a pleasure – sometimes – knowing you. I just outgrew the silly pettiness and childishness of professional sports.

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  14. What is up with Gomez? *IDIOT*. I thought if the batter charges the mound he gets thrown out of the game. Am I wrong? I would bet you money this will be one of those series that gets ugly.

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  19. Announcers just said that they thought LMJ would be in the rotation for the playoffs. I sure hope not. He doesn’t deserve it as much as Peacock, McHugh, or Morton.

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  20. On the radio they said the Astros 8 run talked just helped tie a Rangers record by scoring 7 unearned runs with 2 outs. I’ll take that 8-2 lead.

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  21. JEEZE HINCH!!! McHugh has run out of gas!! You GIVE the Angels 4 runs yesterday and you leave Collin in there to hang out to dry!! I really don’t get it.

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    • What I read – he pitched one inning at AA on Sept 4th, then left on a “personal” matter and then was activated on Sept. 8th.
      In this case I am doubting whether he is active. It reminds me of a point in Princess Bride where Vizzini played by Wallace Shawn keeps saying “Inconceivable” as Carey Elwes keeps gaining on them. Finally Mandy Pantinkin as Inigo Montoya says “You keep saying that word (inconceivable). I don’t think it means what you think it means”
      Does activate mean active?

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  26. Tonight’s fourth inning was the weirdest inning I have seen that wasn’t in Oakland. The Astros were horrible in their half of the inning.
    Altuve’s x rays were negative and he is day-to-day. good chance he sits tomorrow.
    Texas Rangers made our bullpen look good for a change.
    Going into this season we agreed beating Texas was one of the big keys to our season and we were right.
    McHugh said he didn’t want to waste any more mental effort on Carlos Gomez, so he’s done talking about it. He said he pitched around Odor to get to Chirinos because Odor has hurt him in the past and he wasn’t going to let that happen this time.
    Gattis is starting to get some rhythm at the plate.
    Marwin looked like a man on a mission tonight.
    Houston has a five game lead over Boston with 6 left to play.

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    • Kalas & Blummer noted last night that McHugh was a cerebral pitcher. I’ll take that to me he’s a thinker and has to chart out his course of action. In the 5th he continually shook off Gattis. He knew what he wanted to throw.

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  27. I hope I can differ from the masses without it coming across wrong. I didn’t have any problem with how Hinch managed the bullpen Sunday night. LMJ was on a pitch count and it was clear we were going to rely heavily on the bullpen. He wasn’t going to bring in Devo in the 4th inning so the options for a long reliever were Martes or Fiers. I guess it’s damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The results weren’t what we wanted, but I understand the thought process in doing what he did. This is just my opinion.

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    • Tim, I also had no problem with the handling of the bullpen after McCullers. I just have the opinion that McCullers should not have started the game. He should have been among the relievers IMHO.

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      • I understand your thinking, but Hinch said today that McCullers will be in the playoff rotation if he is healthy. Thus, it is clear they want McCullers starting in the playoffs and, if so, he needed to get in a couple of starts before the playoffs begin.

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  29. For those of you who are interested, Jayne Hansen has her annual Rule 5 Primer up on her website, What the Heck, Bobby. She has the names of Astros prospects who are eligible.

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  30. Perhaps I was not coherent, at the time last night, when Gomez began to charge McHugh and I could have sworn that I observed the homeplate umpire warn BOTH benches about throwing at batters. I thought that merited an automatic ejection of BOTH the pitcher and the pitcher’s manager if a batter was hit and/or deemed to be thrown at… the confusion, Fisher was hit and Altuve was hit but no ejections made???!!! Please correct me if I am wrong.

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  31. This is likely the last post you will have to read by this college-educated piece of liberal manure (as it was so nicely put) but sweeping the Rangers will definitely be sweet, and the fact we’re finishing the regular season strong may be a good omen

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    • I wish you would not leave – we have been through a lot here and I wish everyone would raise their rhetoric above that and leave politics out of this non-political blog.

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      • Politics are one thing; personal attacks however are a different story, and right now I feel like a mouse surrounded by cats. At least now I know how people like me are viewed here. There’s a difference between being political and showing some basic human decency. It’s sad, because I actually enjoyed the BASEBALL discussion here. I’ve had 2 strokes and I’m only 39, with the last one coming last month. I already know I’m not going to be one of those people you see on the news celebrating their 100th birthday. To be frank, with my family medical history and my own past history, I likely won’t be ever collecting social security either. That’s okay. I’m actually relieved, as this world has gotten too ugly. My God, yesterday a customer who told me the protests wouldn’t be happening if the 13th amendment was repealed, and that’s how “real Texans” think. Really?! Well apparently so. The great Brian Wilson sang “I Just Wasn’t Made for these times” in 1966; I think I’m feeling that way now in 2017.

        I now have literally nobody to discuss baseball with that’s still living, not even at work, since everybody here doesn’t like baseball , and prefers to watch pro concussion ball or the NBA. So yeah, if I seem angry and hurt, it’s because I am.

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    • To BC and others. Once again, as posted by me above. There are no political requirements to be on here. I might never vote for the same candidate but that is irrelevant. If you don’t care to post, that is fine, but please don’t let a political difference be the reasons.

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    • Billy, I would hope that you change your mind as almost all of us on this blog are here to talk baseball. Yes sometimes we all get caught up in the moment of the political “BS” and make comments based upon emotions that can run pretty high at times. In the end though we are all united in our support for our Astros because that is the reason we’re all here on this blog in the first place. That other stuff belongs elsewhere so hang around and enjoy the rest of the season. It’s a party and everyone is invited.

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  32. Damn, I knew that bit of politics yesterday would rattle the Chippalatta cage. It’s a shame to lose an Astro fan or three from an Astro blog when some of us manage to offend others with our non baseball comments. Can’t we just offend with our baseball related differences? Billy, I can’t personnally condemn other friends here for their transgressions, especially those that are political, simply because (tongue in cheek) I know I’m right and they are wrong. I still think we’d be good neighbors and I’d cut their grass and bring in the paper if they were stuck out of town and I’m sure we’d have a beer in the driveway from time to time. So let’s see if we can all collectively move on into the post season together.

    Speaking of baseball, are our guys relaunching at the perfect time, or are the Rangers simply mailing it in?

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    • I think I just need some time to cool down, but yesterday reminded me a lot of why I generally keep to myself.

      The funny thing is…you know who one of my life heroes is? Jim Mcingvale. We are complete opposite sides of the political spectrum…but he is a GOOD man (and a Christian who has never forgotten Matthew 7:1-3 ) and looks at humans as human beings first.

      One last thing:
      “Speaking of baseball, are our guys relaunching at the perfect time, or are the Rangers simply mailing it in?”

      Both.

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  34. I am a person who loves baseball and loves people. Three of my four kids are not politically on my side of the aisle but life is too short to live life based on differences.
    I can never understand what it is like to be a person of color in this world.
    I can never understand what it is like to try to be a police man in this world.
    I know that there are good and bad people of every color, occupation etc but I also know there are many more good people in this world than not.
    I do know what it is like to be poor – knowing what it was like when my parents struggled from paycheck to paycheck. I know what it felt like to get laid off in the 80s with no jobs around and my wife 8 months pregnant. I know what it was like to celebrate Christmas with our only gift for my family being a reconstructed transmission for our only car.
    People talk smack about politics and they don’t say it to hurt others – it’s just the kind of crap discourse that flies around these days.
    I can’t make anyone stay but I pray that you all do or if you leave that you return. You are welcome whether you think you are or not.

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    • I appreciate it Dan. I have been (as the kids say) “up in my feelings lately”; I’m struggling with the fact that the mobile stroke unit may have saved my life, but that someone else may have passed while I was being saved. I have a lot of guilt about that. I see a world that is getting more and more filled with hatred, bigotry, and just basic lack of respect, and I weep for my daughter, for the world grows more cruel by the day. I wonder what my late father (who fought for the freedoms that so many take for granted and think it only applies to those who see things the way they do) would say if he could see what the world has become.

      I also wonder what he would say about instant replay in baseball, or pitch timers. The fact that we have a commissioner now who almost makes me long for Bud Selig (pitch timers? really?!).

      But mostly I think he’d be disappointed in me because I let one person piss me off to the point where I was going to leave. Nope. I’m think this college educated piece of manure (thank again, buddy…I may be a fan of your nephew but that post spoke volumes…lack of apology accepted) is going to stay around after all.

      Besides, we’re going to win the Series this year, and I want to be around for it.

      Question…does anybody remember what I predicted at the start of the season as far as wins go? I’ve been within 1-2 wins for the past several years and want to see how I did this season!

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  35. The Astros won 14-3 tonight and have 97 wins on the season with five games left.
    And they have Justin Verlander starting for them tomorrow.
    Boston lost and the Astros clinched the #2 seed but still have a shot to catch Cleveland.

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  36. OH HAPPY DAY!!! You can’t imagine how happy I am tonight! Home field advantage is HUGE!!! Keuchel says he feels mid season form, and that is awesome, because we’re gonna need a well rested Keuchel and Verlander! I started a post earlier today but I deleted it, glad I did. Tomorrow all I want is for Verlander to shut the arlington little league down……and we sweep them. THEN I want our guys to look in the other dugout and quietly sneer….just like they’ve done to us so many times. That would MAKE MY DAY!!
    Billy my dislike for Brian Smith is not new. My hope is the Chronicle takes action to speak with him. He has written extremely unkind things about THIS team and THIS GM, and THIS manager. If he writes another offensive article, I will voice my opinion of it. I’m almost 70yrs old…..I doubt I’m going to change anytime soon.
    GO ‘STROS!!! Becky⚾

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    • I don’t like Brian Smith for many reasons. ..he is a very unpleasant person to put it mildly! And yes I’m in complete agreement that he shouldn’t have written that article and should just concentrate on sports…but he’s not to good at that either. The Chronicle is mainly written by clowns and I haven’t subscribed to that paper in many years for many reasons! And I wouldn’t change you for the world…you’ve long been one of my favorite posters here.

      14-3 loved it. I got to watch the game today…I’m back at work but they’re letting me sit with people and listen to calls and easing me back in…I tried to rush myself back yesterday. Not good. So anyway I got control of the tv today, and man I was pumped. We kicked the bloody hell out of my least favorite team in sports. This is looking more like the 2017 Astros and less like the 2014 Astros.

      Bregman was my untouchable prior to the season, and he’s been showing why. If Biggie in his prime played in MMP, this is what he’d be. And we did this without Altuve!

      We got Verlander. ..I’m still tripping over that. Never thought we’d get him. Amazing.

      Glad to see Mabin have a good game. I got a guy on my team who looks just like him, so I was busting his chops today.

      Just a great game.

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      • Billy,

        I like everyone on here, but you may be one of my favorites. Our political positions notwithstanding, and I probably side with you on several social issues, I respect the wonderful father and husband I can see that you are. You have been dealt some tough situations in your life, but you always seem to find a way to keep chugging along and providing for your family the best you can. You are a good person and, in my book, that is all that matters.

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  37. My wish at the beginning of the season was to obliterate the Rangers and I’m thrilled with the results. Of course it would be my life dream to go all the way but what ever happens I’ll be happy with our season.

    Billy I’m so glad you decided to hang with us. I’ve admired your tenacity in dealing with your problems. Always looking on the bright side and never giving up. We all would miss you.
    Besides, I always think of you as my neighbor cause I live off Dixie Farm Rd as well.

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  38. One other thing I wanted to say Billy is that I understand how you can hurt from name calling and labeling. I am directly or indirectly being labeled as a racist or a sexist or any other nasty “ists” you can think of and that is as far away from who I am as you could find.
    These are nasty and unfair times both ways.

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  39. – From the look in his eyes, to the things he said and the way he said them, one could tell that Alex Bregman is ready for battle. I guess his time playing in the postseason for LSU has trained him to keep the fire in his belly stoked.
    – Astros County pointed out that the Rangers got Cole Hamels so that he could start in games like last night’s game. One where they needed to stave off elimination.
    – Has anyone noticed that the Oakland A’s are fifth in baseball in HRs with 228, right behind Houston. Who would have thought that?
    – The Rockies have the second highest team batting average in baseball, .271, ten points behind the Astros. Boston has dropped into a tie for 12th in that stat, at .258.
    – It’s way early, I know, but a guy I would like to pick up to help us next season replace Beltran at DH is Jed Lowrie. He has had a great year, can play all over the infield, switch hits, still runs well, and I hate to see him come to the plate against us. Just thinking out loud.
    – Just wondering if Brad Ausmus has had enough of baseball and will retire to a life of surfing and family.
    – The Dodgers depth chart shows the top of their rotation with Kershaw, Darvish and then two more lefties, Hill and Wood.

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    • I’ve said that all season…..Bregman came to play, and WIN! This kid didn’t get to be a part of the post season in 2015…..he wants to win and it shows! I’m getting excited just thinking of next year! This whole team will be back (minus Beltran) and I’m just giddy thinking about it……so is Bregman!!!

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    • If there is one team in the A.L. West that will challenge the Astros over the next 3-4 years it will be Oakland. They have a very smart front office and some good young talent. Their farm system is vastly improved and this is a team I think will battle us in the coming years. The Angels and Mariners are a mess with both having a weak farm system and some aging veterans that is a part of their core. The Rangers hae one more year of Beltre and a few decent young players, but they traded most of their quality prospects the past 2 years in hopes of winning a World Series and they are stuck in purgatory right now.

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    • I do not know about Lowrie. He is, after all, a historically, injury-riddled man. I feel that Gurriel should be the DH considering his knees are barking at him now. That way, White or Reed could step in and be the 1st baseman.

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      • Sarge, my thinking is this: We have one year left of Marwin Gonzalez and we know what he is going to make because Luhnow handled that in last year’s arbitration negotiations. He’s a free agent after next season. He has been worth three times what we paid him this year. Marwin has a good arm and he is good enough to handle LF. Good enough that Hinch has said he is going to play LF a lot in the next few weeks. So I would put Marwin at LF next year. That is a bat that has produced an incredible 142wRC+ and 3.8 WAR this year. Put that guy in your lineup.
        Now, Jed Lowrie has 625 plate appearances for Oakland this year and he has been playing a position. He has a 120 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR this year. Imagine replacing Beltran’s numbers with Lowries and getting another guy on your team who is a switch hitter and can play all of the infield positions, but you can protect his health at DH.
        Now, Gurriel’s problem is not his knees, but muscle problems in his legs and he can address that in the off season, like he did his stamina last off season.
        Now your lineup looks like this:
        Springer CF
        Reddick RF
        Altuve 2B
        Correa SS
        Bregman 3B
        Lowrie DH
        Gattis /McCann C
        Gurriel 1B
        Gonzalez LF
        Fill in the bench blanks. That is a lineup that is incredible and it’s better defensively than we had with Aoki in LF. In late innings you can move Marwin to 1B and put Marisnick or Fisher in LF.

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  40. It was mentioned by oldpro up above, but I think Jayne deserves an extra plug given how much work she puts into this:
    https://whattheheckbobby.blogspot.com/2017/09/2017-rule-5-draft-primer-and-eligible.html

    I’d like to revisit the topic after October baseball is over. I don’t see too many guys who *need* to be protected and we have a couple FA likely heading elsewhere this winter…but strong postseasons can influence that too.

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    • It’s a shame we close with Boston and then likely play them in the ALDS. It’s possible the Red Sox would prefer to see Cleveland in a short series, but I can’t see any team laying down like that right before the games that really count start. I’m going to go ahead and blame Manfred for the schedule.

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  42. Pretty much confirmed that the Astros are going to carry 3 catchers, per spit.com . According to them “Centeno probably has a slight edge defensively while Stassi is undoubtedly the better hitter. .” Are they watching the two same players?

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    • I saw those comments and was very confused. How can they say Centeno is the better defensive catcher? He allows so many WPs and PBs. He is a bit better at throwing out base runners, but I don’t see him being a better defensive catcher than Stassi.

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    • Defensively, Centeno has a decent arm but that’s negated with all his other defensive shortcomings.

      I think the implication though is Gattis will be getting most of the DH starts.

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  43. The Rangers broadcasters just pointed out that Springer has 108 Ks and is the only Astros hitter to reach triple digits this year. The Rangers have 8 players who are over the century mark. Beltran and Marwin are both at 99. Bregman at 92 could get there…but the improvement over previous years is astounding.

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  47. Picture this: Me sitting in my recliner, having a late afternoon cup of coffee🍵 with the BIGGEST GRIN on my face😃!!! This is a beautiful ending to a magical season playing this arlington little league team! I am one happy girl!
    P.S.— that grand slam was a beautiful sight⚾

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  49. This team looks like they have turned it into another gear. I am seeing the May/June Astros right now and it could not come at a better time. I am ready for the playoffs to begin next week.

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    • Yep. I am not concerned about getting the #1 spot in the A.L. I really like our chances against Boston and we have HFA against them. I will be pulling for the Yankees to beat the Twins because I think they will battle Cleveland. The Indians will win the series, but it won’t be easy.

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