Five for Friday: Critical questions for the Astros

The Astros are in the home stretch of the 2017 season and with 6 weeks to go the path forward may be murkier rather than clearer. They hold a 12 game lead in the division with 41 games to go, which while it is not mathematically certain is mathematically likely to hold.

So, coming around the turn for the stretch run – here are five critical questions for the Astros to answer between now and the end of the season.

1. Will there be any more trades before the September 1 deadline?

And let’s face it. By any more trades, the real question is whether the Astros will make a big move for another starter. Jeff Luhnow called it highly unlikely at this point. Mr. Luhnow has rarely showed what he was really thinking when it has come to trades. If Lance McCullers Jr. looks like he won’t be coming back, does that change that answer?

2. Who will be playoff eligible?

Playoff eligibility is not as complex as it used to be. Instead of being on the 25 man roster on September 1, a player needs only to be on the 40-man roster on that date and then is declared for the 25-man on a playoff series by playoff series basis. At this point, the biggest reason for a 40 man shift would be either a trade or if someone on the DL is just not going to make it back and is shifted to the 60 day DL and replaced by someone they might consider along the way.

3. Will Carlos Correa (Will Harris) (Lance McCullers Jr.) come back as strong as ever?

Before injuries, all three of these players were performing at a high level (and yes the assumption is that LMJ was pitching hurt when he stumbled along before being put back on the DL). The Astros really need each of these players to boost the offense, bullpen and starting rotation respectively to challenge for the World Series title.

4. What will that playoff rotation look like?

Whether they bring in additional help or not, the most critical question facing the front office and A.J. Hinch is who will be the three or four men in the playoff rotation. Dallas Keuchel will be in it, if standing, but will LMJ return? Are Collin McHugh and Charlie Morton locks? If LMJ does not return is it Brad Peacock or Mike Fiers in the fourth spot?

5. What will the late-inning bullpen look like?

Ken Giles closes and Will Harris if healthy should be the eighth inning guy, but where does a faltering (at home) Luke Gregerson fit in? Has Francis Martes earned himself a spot late? What about Chris Devenski, who looks a lot more hittable since the All Star Game? Is Tyler Clippard possibly the answer in the seventh inning? Does Brad Peacock only work multiple inning situations or high leverage situations if he is not in the rotation? Is there a place for the “injured” Tony Sipp, Michael Feliz or the newly acquired Francisco Liriano?

Here’s your chance for answering essay questions:

  1. Are these the 5 most critical questions down the stretch?
  2. If not, what are the most critical questions in your opinion and why?
  3. What is your deepest fear? Biggest regret?
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140 responses to “Five for Friday: Critical questions for the Astros”

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  1. Dan: Conspicuous by his absence in your bullpen calculations is Joe Musgrove who has simply been awesome lately.

    I have little faith in LMJ coming back and contributing and I almost wish folks would get over him. It’s too easy to rationalize his poor performance and blame it on injury but I’ve had questions about his mental approach for some time. Early in the season he had a little hissy fit over Gattis catching him, his body language speaks excuses and if he was hurt and didn’t say so he’s made the same mistake Keuchel made last year. OTOH, Morton and Peacock have pretty much answered the bell every time out. I think the case could be made that Morton’s stuff is as nasty as LMJ and he has EARNED consideration as our #2 and Peacock has EARNED the #3 status. McHugh has a history of toughness that plays well as the #4 guy and I’m comfortable with him. I think tonight’s game is important for the purpose of finding out if Keuchel is really back or was his last outing a pleasant fluke.

    Getting Correa back will be a huge boost. It stabilizes the lineup offensively and defensively. Meanwhile we have been able to give ABs to Fisher and Jake that would have gone to Marwin. Not sure it has made much difference in Jake’s case but against right handed pitching Fisher looks like an upgrade form Aoki. With Correa back in enough time to shake off the rust the offensive juggernaut that we loved will be in effect just when we need it.

    Getting Harris back will take innings away from Gregerson whose inconsistency makes me crazy and ought to make the return of Sipp and Felilz unnecessary. If I recall, Harris is pretty tough on lefties as is Devo and Clippard. Who needs a LOOGY who can’t find the plate (Sipp/Liriano)? For an organization that trumpets the ascendance of stats it puzzles me why they think a LOOGY is a necessity if you have right handed relievers who are actually more effective against left handed hitting than Sipp and Liriano.

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    • Yeah I did not include Musgrove because I was talking about the late inning bullpen. But if he continues to pitch well maybe he will be moved out of the long relief spot.

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    • LMJ definitely needs to work on his mental approach as well as physical. We’ve had a few guys with great arms that couldn’t get over the hump because they’d fall apart whenever there was an error or bad call by an umpire over the years. He needs to let that go and focus…but the reason many of us are either apologists or sound like huge fanboys is we have seen glimmers where he came out with the brightest lights shining on him and pitched a gem. It’s allowed us to overlook some of the meltdowns. Also, Roy Oswalt’s not walking through that door. We’ve gotta dance with who we brought.

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      • I would definitely consider trading LMJ in the near future. Move him to a National League team and get what you can.

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      • I would be open to trading LMJ, but the bigger concern is who will replace him and Keuchel after the 2018 season (I am making the safe assumption Keuchel will leave via free agency)? Whitley looks like he might be an option sometime next year, but will they allow him to go more than 150 IPs early in his career? There is Franklin Perez, Armenteros and Bukauskas as options by 2019. Also, Morton will probably be gone after next year as well. McHugh is a free agent after the 2019 season.

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  2. Short and almost sweet here:
    1. I doubt it
    2. Pass at this time
    3. I hope so. If not, it might be wait until next year.
    4. 7th and 8th – Harris/Clippard. Giles 9th
    5. Tougher here. Do we carry 12 or 13 (currently)? The fence sitters – Gregerson, Martes, Feliz, Fiers, Liriano, Sipp. That gives me DK, Peacock, Morton, LMJ, McHugh, Clippard, Devo, Giles, Harris, Musgrove. I’d like to see Martes as one of the guys.

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  3. 1 and 2: The only other question I have is what will the playoff lineup look like. I think Correa simplifies things. Having him back allows Altuve to be Altuve and slides Bregman and Gurriel a bit lower. With them both performing well that puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher.

    3. Fears and Regrets?

    The seaon’s end is near
    And so I face the final curtain
    My friend, I’ll say it clear
    I’ll state my case, of which I’m certain
    I’ve lived a life that’s full
    I traveled to each and every team
    And more, much more than this, I did it Luhnow’s way

    Regrets, I’ve had a few
    But then again, passed on some bad trades
    I did what I had to do and saw it through without exemption
    I planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway
    And more, much more than this, I did it Luhnow’s way

    Yes, there were times, I’m sure you knew
    When I bit off more than I could chew
    But through it all, when there was doubt
    I laughed off rotation woes
    I faced it all and I stood tall and did it Luhnow’s way

    I’ve cheered, I’ve laughed and cried
    I’ve had my fill, my share of losing
    And now, as tears subside, I find it all so amusing
    To think I did all that
    And may I say, not in a shy way
    Oh, no, oh, no, not us, we did it Luhnow’s way

    For what is a champion, what have we got?
    If not our Astros, then there is naught
    To endure the years of Mills and Porter and worse
    The record shows I took the blows and did it Luhnow’s way

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  4. Tonight we face yet another tough [on us] lefty – Sean Manea. Not counting Centeno [who has 1 hit in 3 appearances against Manea], Springer and Marisnick have the best BAs on the team against him with .250.

    Here are the rest of our BAs against him:

    Righties/Switchers:
    Altuve – .176
    Bregman – .143
    Marwin – .200
    Beltran – .125
    Gurriel – .231
    Stassi – .000 [no at bats]

    Lefties:
    Reddick – .000 [no at bats]
    Fisher – .000 [no at bats]
    Davis – .000 [no at bats]

    DK, we are going to need your ace stuff again tonight!

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    • I don’t know why anyone would start a RHP against the Astros. They are 58-28 against RH starting pitchers and 16-19 against LH starting pitchers.
      Bring up LH starters from the minors to face Houston. Sign Kenny Long and Wandy and pitch them against the Astros.

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      • I also don’t know why they ever throw our team fastballs. A lefty slider thrower like Corbin is Death Cab for Cutie on our righties. And yet…. if Bregman had pulled his drive with two guys on just a tad … it would have been in the back of the Crawford Boxes and a tie game.

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  6. I believe the Astros team misses Brevin McGattis more than most people realize. The sooner they return the better the team will be. Did 1OP say “Sooner”?
    Carlos Correa is a huge part of this team’s offense and the Astros are worlds better defensively with Bregman at 3B and Correa at SS than any combination of Bregman, Davis and Marwin.
    I have never seen an Astros team get hurt more by their pitchers walking batters than this Astros team since the All-Star break. Walks have killed us.
    It’s too early to pick a playoff team for the Astros, but not too early to say that if Fiers continues to lose and Sipp continues be himself they have to sit on the sidelines at playoff time if Musgrove, Martes, Morton and Peacock continue to pitch well. A good Joe Musgrove is better than a good Tony Sipp, no matter who is at the plate.
    If LMJ is healthy, I want him pitching for us. I just think he hasn’t been healthy for most of the season. If he is still not a dependable guy when he starts to get more expensive in arbitration, that is the time to do something about it. Martes and the Perezes, Paulinos and the Whitleys and the Armenteroses, etc will be maturing by then. I still believe that Framber Valdez will be a lefty reliever for the Astros for years.
    That’s my two cents.

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    • What are your thoughts on Cionel Perez being our lefty reliever, possibly as early as next year? He must be put on the 40-man roster by the deadline this year or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

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      • So far, Cionel has the same disease as Liriano – he just can’t hrow strikes consistently enough to pitch in relief.

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      • Subject to that comment, of course I would put him on the 40 man before the deadline rather than lose him in the Rule 5. I just would not plan on him being a LOOGY. But I would have him work on his command in AA all next year to see if he can get his command somewhere close to matching his stuff. If he continues to stay behind in the count, throw too many pitches per out, and walk too many hitters, the way he has tended to do so far, I would reconsider next year.

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      • I think the Astros will be working Perez into shape this off-season, building his weight and his stamina. I think they have seen enough of him to help him develop under a strong program. I think they will keep him in minor league starting rotations and try to get two of his four average pitches to become plus pitches. His smooth delivery translates to starting.
        Unless they are fearful of injury, I think they will try to develop him as a lefty starter. He is the same age as Martes, without the good background that Martes has. I think they will protect him and move him up quickly, unless they want to trade him, because of fear of his arm problems. Protecting him and then losing him for a year to surgery would be a disaster.

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  8. It’s Rogelio Armenteros tonight for the Grizzlies against Las Vegas.

    It’s Franklin Perez leading the Hooks against Springfield.

    The rest of the guys starting for our organization in the minors tonight all have ERAs that look like football scores.

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  9. I wanted to comment on Devin’s 1 and 2 above without having to join the Songwriters’ Guild. I totally agree that Altuve must think he has to “replace” Correa when batting. Which means we lost both due to the injury. I love Altuve but he has stunk up the joint with runners in scoring position. He definitely needs to return to being Altuve. And recently we have seen how unbelievable in 1997 Biggio had 744 plate appearances and grounded into -0- double plays. Altuve has grounded into more DPs this year already than any year of Biggio’s career, 17. He is trying too hard.

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    • Come on Bill. Altuve literally carried this club through July. In August he’s become a mere mortal. Stunk up the joint? Does he have a couple of mediocre stats? Sure, but every guy in the business wishes he had Altuve’s mediocre stats. They are worth about 20 million a year. Personally, I don’t think GDP is any barometer of how good or bad a hitter a guy is. Altuve, while hitting .362, yes .362, hits balls sharply. Sometimes they go right at guys. That’s life.

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  12. Giles is our most dependable relief pitcher right now. It’s night and day from last year to this year on his pitch location and overall effectiveness. When he comes in I feel good the game is over.

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  13. 40 games left…can they manage 25-15 or better?

    I went to a AAA game tonight. The starting pitchers were 5-12 and 3-12 with ERAs well over 5.00. it’s not just Fresno lacking pitching these days.

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  14. Rogelio Armenteros apparently did not want to be shown up by Forrest Whitley. Rogelio’s line last night for Fresno was 7.0 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 9 Ks, 2 BBs. Fresno walked it off on a clutch RBI single by Tony Kemp. Astros are now tied with the Reno Aces for first place in the Pacific Coast League North.

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  17. With 45 games to go in the regular season, the Astros are 28 games over .500. Next closest is 2 games over .500.

    I feel like the trade deadline was about the same as the “flat earth theory” until Magellan started going West and ended up where he started.

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  19. With a current accumulated WAR of 2.1 pitching this season, Charlie Morton has already paid his salary for this season and next season, if you use the current value of 1.0 WAR= $8 million on the baseball market.

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  20. Peter Gammons, whom we all know does not give a Flying Frampton about the Astros, says that a reliable baseball executive told him that Forrest Whitley is the best pitching prospect “anywhere”.

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    • And this is what I said last November about Whitley in Chipalatta:

      November 11, 2016

      I am probably in Whitley’s corner more than anyone here and think he might be our best prospect.
      Because of his birthday in September, he was older than most seniors in HS and he already has a plus fastball and slider and an average changeup and curve. A nineteen year old with four pitches and a 50 rating on command has my attention.
      This guy, with a work ethic to match his size and a very easy delivery, could be a special player. I think he joins the Astros in 2019, barring injury.

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      • Dave, I want to see him forcing the Astros to bring him up from AAA, rather than having the Astros needing him to be forced up to the majors next year.
        The PCL is a hitter’s league. Dominating there is what I want to see next summer.
        He’s so young. He needs to have a move to 1B. He needs to field his position, cover first base, back up the bases, learn how to hit his spots against major league hitters. He needs to learn how to pitch to lineups that have better hitters in 8 out of 9 spots in their lineups than any one batter he has faced so far in his career.

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      • OP. indeed, I don’t want to see the kid rushed either. I hope need does not force a premature arrival in Houston.

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  22. In discussing who might be on the playoff roster, it needs to be remembered that the Astros are a very stat-driven team:
    Mike Fiers has allowed 30 HRs this season, one behind the major league leader, Ricky Nolasco.
    Mike Fiers is one of the major league leaders in allowing stolen bases with 16, but that has a lot to do with our catchers.
    Mike Fiers is one of the major league leaders in wild pitches with 9.
    Mike Fiers is one of the major league leaders in walks per 9 innings, at 3.58.
    Mike Fiers is one of the major league leaders in pitches thrown per inning, at 16.97.
    Mike Fiers is second in the major leagues in hitting batters, with 12.
    If you don’t think he might be a playoff possibility as a starter, try transferring those traits to a playoff reliever.
    These stats are for innings-qualified pitchers only.

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    • There is no way Mike Fiers is on the playoff roster unless we have a rash of injuries to our pitching staff. I would take Liriano, and possibly Sipp, before I would take Fiers.

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  25. It’s a good thing I’m not allowed to say what I think of this “umpire show of solidarity from players saying unkind things to them”.ARE….YOU…KIDDING…ME!!!
    It’s bad enough that this country has an entire generation of “SNOW FLAKES” now we have MLB umpires who get their feelings hurt. This is the most ridiculous thing these FULL…GROWN…MEN have ever thought up. DO. YOUR. JOB. AND. SHUT. UP!

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  26. We are celebrating with our Houma cousins at L’ Auberge, casino this weekend.
    I’m celebrating my no more cancer diagnosis!! Got to watch a couple of innings of last night’s game in the poker room. Didn’t see Devo come in, but evidently it didn’t go well. Hinch is playing with fire bringing Giles in to get more than three outs.
    Daveb….I’m even!!

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  27. I’m going to begin wearing a black wristband in protest of the visual abuse of balls well within the strike zone being called balls and balls well outside the strike zone being called strikes.

    I don’t think ball players should be given carte Blanche to complain but the umpires do have the power to toss players abusing the privilege. On the other hand there seems to be no way to remove the crappy umps who blow calls year after year.

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  32. The Red Sox lost to the Yankees so race for best record in A.L. is back to 5.5 game lead. It kind of feels icky pulling for the Yankees, but it’s a little less icky when they’re playing the Red Sox.

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  33. The powers that be are mighty secret about McCullers…..even McCullers is pretty tight lipped about himself. The kid needs to grow up, and get with the process of pitching on a pretty dang good team. My opinion only….but as a mother, I can see a coddled young man that needs to harness that right arm of his, and quityerbitching.
    Goodnight everyone!

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  34. I think he’s physically less than 100%. That might end up being the ongoing saga of his ML career. It’s got to be frustrating to have so much talent and not be able to make the best use of it, especially at such a young age.

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    • If there’s a possibility that he won’t be able to pitch in October, that pushes the Verlander trade back to the front page. Dallas Keuchel can’t pitch every game.
      Luhnow will be FORCED to make a trade. And……I’m not hopeful that McCullers is healthy.

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  35. Going to the game today with my torn knee ligament. I’m sure it will be an experience but I’ve had these tickets for months and I ain’t gonna waste em.
    Hoping Mr. Peacock and the boys don’t disappoint me.

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    • I wasn’t staring at her feet..too busy trying to find some q-tips and some dramamine.

      I think that is what the kids call “throwing shade” although with tomorrow’s event, it may be more like “tossing an eclipse “

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      • But Bregman has kept them in a lot of games over the past month with his bat. And he’s quietly playing a fair third base. No doubt, bad start today. But I was surprised to note that he’s only got ten errors over there on the season. All while learning a brand new job. It’ll be interesting to see how he fields his position on the larger stage.

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    • They’ve been pretty bad since the ASB.

      Honestly if we don’t at least make the ALCS, this will be the most disappointed I’ve ever been in an Astros team, and the turning point will be Correa’s injury.

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  47. That’s what happens when you run away with the division title in June. Hinch is going to have to figure out how and when to light these guys up again. Can he do it? That would make him a pretty good manager.

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  48. I absolutely HATE to lose by one run! This game was lost in less than 2 minutes today. The usual sterling defense stunk today. Cotton is either very good….or very bad, today he was VERY good. They are off tomorrow, and I hope these guys don’t show up Tues brain dead. I have no idea how you build a fire under these guys, but if Luhnow would pull off a trade for a REAL good pitcher currently pitching for the Tigers, that might just do it!! His name rhymes with Zoo-lander! You gotta be all in it, to win it. DO IT!!!

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    • Well right now all that might give us is another starting pitcher who will lose 3-2 when we don’t hit or field or when the bullpen sucks or whatever.
      I’m just feeling cynical – I know when Correa gets back and McGattis get back the lineup will get extended and more importantly some of these guys (Altuve, Springer, Reddick, etc.) will stop trying to “replace” Correa and go back to who they are with guys on base. Sick of watching the overswings and double play balls, etc.

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  50. A week or so ago we were complaining about the pitching and that seems to have righted itself. The offense is too good to really worry about. They will return to being a good offensive team soon. Today was just a really ugly effort on offense and defense. The pitching was good, but it couldn’t make up for the lack of hitting and horrible defense. By the way, I now see why a good hitting catcher like Centeno was not by the Twins. He was awful behind the plate today and seems to have the Gattis disease with passed balls/wild pitches.

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