Can Jeff Luhnow lead the Astros to the next level?

Back in the 1980s I was forced by the Houston economy to uproot my family and take them to Arkansas for seven years. It was a lovely place with great people, who had one really touchy spot to be aware of during conversations…..Arkansas Razorback sports.  One day I opined that the Razorback basketball team would never win the national championship with Eddie Sutton as coach. I was immediately and viciously attacked even though I had very logical reasons for feeling this way. Eddie was a very good basketball coach, who had very talented and good teams, but he always seemed to be trying to rein the kids in at crucial times and they ended up playing too many 62-59 games in the NCAAs and would inevitably lose one of them. It was left up to Nolan Richardson to finally take the Hogs to the Championship.

You see this often in sports. Look at someone like Dusty Baker. He’s had four stops as a manager (Giants, Cubs, Reds and Nats) and has a .540 winning record overall. Each team has had some very good years under him and eight total playoff appearances. But his teams always seem to fall short.

Heck, look at Oakland’s GM/Executive President Billy Beane. He is the only GM in the history of sports to be the focal point of a major movie and be played by Brad Pitt to boot. But for all his innovation and his team’s eight playoff appearances under his watch, they have never won the big one. Of course, that may have as much to do with an old facility and cheap ownership, but it is also true that he has made his team better at times without making his team best.

And this brings us around to the Astros GM Jeff Luhnow. It was one thing when it was some of the fans and media question his ability to clinch the deal with the best Astros baseball team since 1998 (or ever) by failing to bolster the pitching staff at the trade deadline. But now with the public proclamations of disappointment from both Dallas Keuchel and Josh Reddick, it is obvious that the players and perhaps even the manager A.J. Hinch are not happy with the head nerd of the front office and whether he has their back vs. cherishing the menagerie of prospects he has collected over time.

Luhnow’s time has been a Dickensian best of times, worst of times and people’s judgment of his work is just as wide spread.

  • “He’s done a great job of bringing the team back from the depths of Hell.”
  • “He helped shove them to the depths of Hell with his General Sherman scorched earth policy.”
  • “His Carlos Correa/Lance McCullers Jr. draft and signing exacta was brilliant.”
  • “His Mark Appel and Brady Aiken draft picks may have been two of the worst overall number one picks of the last 20 years.”
  • “But Aiken turned into Alex Bregman…..”
  • “But Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez turned into Francisco Liriano, who feels like he has put up a -3.0 WAR in three appearances.”
  • “He brilliantly added Collin McHugh, Will Harris, and Marwin Gonzalez for practically nothing.”
  • ” His trades for Scott Kazmir and Carlos Gomez were fails.”
  • “But he also went out and got veteran leadership in Reddick, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran.”
  • “He shielded too many prospects at the trade deadline and did not shore up a team at a time their competitors were all getting better.”
  • “The story has not played out. We do not know how Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., Will Harris, George Springer and Carlos Correa will be playing when the playoffs come around.”

So, riddle me this my good friends of the blog.

Can the Astros win the World Series with Jeff Luhnow as the GM? No other question matters.

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126 responses to “Can Jeff Luhnow lead the Astros to the next level?”

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  1. I don’t see a GM as ‘leading’; he merely plans and administrates. Managers and clutch-performing players do the leading – and win the championships.

    That being said, we have all the talent pieces – and Luhnow has a lot to do with that. What I am not sure of is whether we have the leadership. Come on, Keuchel! Come on Beltran! Come on McCann! Come on Springer! Come on Reddick! Come on Gregerson! Somebody take the helm, and take us home!

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  2. Can the Astros win a World Series with Luhnow at the helm? That is a good question.

    If the year to “go for it” was this year, then he should have made a better move at the trade deadline. That being said, I am glad Luhnow chose to bypass Sonny Gray and (hopefully, still) Verlander. I still think the best option was Trevor Cahill. But that window has passed and we have to focus on what we have.

    That means our studs have to be healthy and continue their studliness, and that means key guys (translate: marginal) like Harris, Peacock, Liriano and perhaps some upstarts like Fisher White need to overachieve.

    Personally I think the Indians pitching will trump the Astros hitting, and we’ll sit at home during the fall classic.

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  3. They Can win, no idea if they actually will.
    The Achiles Heel of the Luhnow Era Astros has been their failure to develop their own pitching. Missed draft picks and the tandem system have left us with a lot of potential but not many innings at the MLB level. Lance Jr is the only current starter drafted under Luhnow and he has been injury prone so far.

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  5. Paxson to the DL; may be out as long as September with pectoral strain. That follows King Felix going to DL last week. So we are not the only team whose starting pitching is getting hit hard by the injury bug.

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  6. I think the answer is yes, but there are no certainties. If he follows the STL roadmap and gets lucky during the prime off one or two stars we have a shot. My biggest fears is that he can’t make the necessary deals due to A) inter division BS B) Crane limitations and C) Other GMs not wanting to give him the same consideration others receive.

    Also, he should beware what happens when players do not like the GM…

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  10. That’s what happens when you’re trying to be so perfect, that you screw up royally.
    I’m going to turn this game off, you give Hammels a 4 run lead, and you can forget it.
    I had a feeling these guys were going to come to arlington and self destruct.

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  11. Look, I continue to say that JL is not perfect. But let’s (for the sake or argument) say he laid out the plan with Crane before his hire. His plan is to have a top of the standings team for years. Then his plan is working. If his plan is to win the WS every 5th year, then he better do it. If you review the list you provided, it has been UP and DOWN. I just as soon stay up for years to come thinking that eventually we win it all. But again, the Buffalo Bills thought the same thing. Its a long time since Jack Kemp.

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  13. I suppose Luhnow could guide organization if he had a limitless budget, and an owner that said go for it, then sure. BUT that’s not where this organization is. He has a pretty limited budget, and an owner who is still learning what it’s like to own a professional baseball team. But that’s not this team, not this owner, and not this GM.

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  14. Sure they can. Getting into the post season gives them a shot along with everyone else. In some respects, this slump is coming at the right time. They will beat it and build on it. The hitters will hit, but we’re going to need some really big post season innings from multiple unlikely sources.

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  15. So yes, it’s Luhnow’s club. He built it. If his guys, injured or not, win, they’ll be the creators of the Luhnow legacy. And if they tank bad, the GM has to take the hit for that too.

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  16. I’m also thinking that if Yuli gets one more pitch up in his face this weekend the Rangers will be doing us a favor. He’ll be heading for the mound. And that’s the kind of thing that just might wake our guys up.

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  17. Yesterday I pondered a few burning questions regarding the state of the Astros, most of which will/might b answered during the Hot Stove season. One ? was ‘are the Astros a small market tm?’ Not anymore. Home attendance is 1.7mil & counting & will break 2 mil+, putting this org smack dab in the middle of the pack (#14 according to ESPN). There were 4 small market tms with higher attendance above the Astros. This org has moved into Big Boy territory now & must continue to build upon the success JL has helped construct.
    What concerns me about JL & CO is one beautifully annoying word ‘conservatism’. While it is beautiful not to make dumb org busting trades and acquisitions i.e. Arizona, Grinke, ect, it’s annoying when they punt on an opportunity like Quintana. That ‘get’ for the Cubs was not over the top, one we could have easily afforded, and Quintana had a proven track record on a bad tm. He was a player JL coveted & could have offset the DL stints thus tm is currently enduring. Geez, last nite Blum mentioned Peacock was avg 10 runs of support, was! Boy what a change of scenery on a playoff bound tm could have possibly do to one’s attitude & performance.

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    • I can’t complain about JL’s position acquisitions, he’s quietly constructed a Phi Slamma Jamma, Smack Down, fun loving to watch offense that has the city, the league (is the envy of) & the nation salivating and clamoring for even more without breaking the bank. This offense is history making, comparable to or better than the early Bronx Bombers; thank you JL. Heck, even SI’s 2017 prediction has merit now, but it will all go for naught if the pitching continues to implode, and thats on you JL. You double downed twice on the tms pitching rhe past 2 seasons (inj notwithstanding) and it has failed to impress. For 3 seasons LMJ has been a DL frequent flyer, has never topped 200 innings with a Jekyll/Hyde pitching persona. And we know how good he is! Likewise DK, but with more innings pitched. Others have had moments of brilliance, Peacock/Morton/Fiers, but barely go beyond 5-6 innings compelling Hinch to continually tax an already weary bp (we saw what happened post season 2015) & 2017 threatens more of the same. That too is on you JL.
      Can you afford to triple down on our pitching next season? Not a viable option, that much is painfully obvious (the DL kind coupled with inactivity stings). It’s Crane’s turn after post season to again open the checkbook (wanted: a workhorse or 2 or 3 on the pitching side). JL, you might have to spend some of that prospect equity you’ve acquired in conjunction with Cranes checkbook. Dont b scared. The Cubs strategy of drafting bats/buying pitching has merit & is better than marginal or nothing at all.
      This org in JL’s tenure has done an admirable job fielding a WS contender with a few major blips (the jury is still out I know) but it’s done now, dont derail this effort by being conservative or stingy.

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      • Talking about being scared, I don’t think that’s reality, but Luhnow might be too protective of his future at the expense of today. I wonder how he values Keuchel? When you make the comparison, Sonny Gray’s body of work is actually better than Keuchel. Both guys had an injury plagued season. Gray seems to have shaken his issues. But not Dallas. Keuchel wins a Cy Young. Gray takes third in the voting. But then compare their other seasons. Gray is better, yet none of us here were willing to call the guy an ace. In fact a few here called him a middle of the rotation talent. At the same time, most of us still think of Keuchel as an ace, but is he? All I know is that I would have liked the 27 year old righty in our rotation along with our home grown ace for the next couple of years.

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  19. I’m hoping this funk is coming to an end. There were signs of life at least in the eighth and ninth inning last night so perhaps we’ll bust out soon.

    The team had so much offensive success in July, especially on the road that I suspect they started to get complacent, especially against bad teams which the White Sox and Rangers are. It’s almost like they think all they have to do is show up and the other guys will lie down. We’re finding out that bad teams may up their game to try to compete with the best team I the American league. And we still are the best.

    One of the signs of complacency that I find disturbing is poor defensive play. Two of the most egregious examples are Altuve and Gonzalez, especially on their throws. The soft tosses they often make on routine plays make me crazy. Kalas and Blum pointed out on a game a week or so ago a sequence involving Altuve and Guriel. On a routine play Altuve made one of his lackadaisical tosses that did get the runner but Guriel apparently upbraided him. On the next play Jose was in a shift on a right handed batter and fielded a grounder up the middle and fired a seed to Guriel for the out. It looked SO MUCH better.

    And how about jogging to first base? I love watching Reddick bust his butt to first on routine grounders. Last night Fisher beat Hammels to the bag for an infield hit. Doesn’t cost anything to run hard.

    While I’m ranting, I do take Keuchel’s grousing the wrong way. He is already on the best team in the league. Luhnow did improve an already potent offense at the trade deadline by trading Aoki and promoting Fisher. I look at that trade as not so much getting a left handed stopper, which Liriano is proving to be Sippian like, but getting a high upside outfielder who is providing some punch. If Keuchel was lights out and in 2015 form he might be able to bitch a little but until he starts holding up his side of the bargain he ought to keep his mouth shut. I don’t hear anyone in management bad mouthing him for his lousy performance in the press; he ought to extend management the same courtesy. And how about McCullers not stomping around on the mound when he misses his target by two or three feet and concentrate on figuring out why his release point is so inconsistent instead of feeling sorry for himself when he screws up. Even when he comes back I think he needs to EARN the status of #2 starter instead of just having it bestowed upon him.

    And to finish a bit more positively, kudos to Joe Musgrove for embracing the relief role and performing and for James Hoyt getting back some of his Mojo. Hoping Springer hits a lead off bomb tonight and we get crazy and drub the Rangers the next two games.

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    • We don’t know yet if Fisher will be an upgrade over Aoki for the balance of the season. And I think the guys on this club historically give the press little to talk about in comparison to most organizations. Keuchel’s comments were benign in the grand scheme of things. It sounds more and more from bits and pieces that he was actually speaking for his clubhouse. Our guys continue to play their butts off. I don’t like the Altuve lob throws either but he’s given us such remarkable hustling play everyday for years now that I’m not yet ready to pick on him or any other single guy on what is perhaps the best club in Astro history. These guys are slumping. It sucks. They’ll get past this. But I wonder if all of us will.

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  21. I heard a audio of Jon Heyman on 790 this evening and he pretty much spelled out what we already knew. The prospects Luhnow was trying to trade were, Fisher, Moran, and Teoscar Hernandez. The untouchables were the ones we already knew of, plus a guy whose name was not revealed. One of the teams said it was demeaning to ask for a guy, but Luhnow was unwilling to move off ANY of the guys for the other teams player. And that any talks about Verlander are now nonexistent. A 2014 Keuchel, and a recent McCullers are not going to take this team over the hump, that’s the cold hard truth.
    A glimmer of good news is, Harris is going to through a bullpen tomorrow.
    Drbill14…..you don’t post often, but when you do it’s awesome!

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  22. Go Fiers looking strong 9hrs last 7 starts .Man u can put lipstick on a pig, still a pig. KK everyone one word only describe out SP right now?

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  23. Since getting his job back in May, he’s been every bit the number 5 starter we could have hoped for while leading a damaged rotation in innings pitched too.

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  24. I just looked up his stats, your right I was to rough on him he has only allowed 23 runs in his last 39 innings. I guess I’m getting tired of loosing again.

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    • Well Kevin, he has not missed a start. The team is 13 and 9 when he takes the mound. Any club in MLB would be ecstatic with those results from the back of the rotation. It’s easy to go after a guy when he’s pitching badly. But you’ve got to look at his season too.

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  29. It’s a good dam thing this team has such a large lead, because it’s dwindling down fast. If this team doesn’t snap out of it……there will be *NO* playoff baseball.
    JEEZE…..I’m angry.😠

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    • So do we start worrying about the Angels or continue following the Mariner results?

      In other news, the Cardinals and Cubs are tied for NL Central lead with MIL just behind.

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      • Devin I’m more worried about the Angels – but my big worry is that one of these trailing teams will decide to bust out of mediocrity and get on a roll.

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  31. Any one see how Good Dashaun Watson was in the Texans first preseason Game , Nice. Last night the first time I have turned of a game in the 5th inning since 2014

    Man it sure is harder to be a Gm and manage a team when they are stinking the joint up. Maybe we overrated all of them when we were on an epic historical 2 month run of scoring 9 runs a game. We shall see. Will this be an epic historical collapse like the Oilers Bills Game??

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    • Or maybe you’re under rating the team because of a 2-3 week slump? I’d take the larger sample size over the smaller sample size every time.

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      • Yes, quite often they seem to fall behind early and follow it the rest of the game with bad at bats, mental mistakes on the bases, and questionable fielding.

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  32. Nothing positive? I think they’ve lost 8 of their last 10 or something like that and still lead the division by two touchdowns. Sandy, if they lose 8 of their next 10, then we can start discussing the collapse and at that point, maybe even the GM’s future. But right now, this is still a slump.

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  33. Semantics and opinion, slump or collapse. No ones wants to see our beloved team fail, we just all have different opinions and perspectives. My concern Slumps happen, this team is loosing ugly, and our Pitching staff is a MASH unit.

    I for one don’t blame it all on the tread deadline. I don’t think that deal was there for the GM, for what every reasons I don’t know.

    I still go back to the begging of the year when we put all are hopes in the hands of 2 injury pr\one 1+2 ,and then McHugh DL in ST. I think that’s hen a more proactive plan should have been in motion.

    Because DK and LMJ seemed OK for while we went to sleep, got on the incredible winning high and forgot about a contingency plan until it may have been to late.

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  34. Happy left hander day Dallas Keuchel, and our own one and only lefty our you get Christopher (33)!!! May the baseball Gods shine on this team today, and bring Keuchel a MUCH needed win!
    EXCUSE ME….. but where is my good friend Old Pro?????
    If you see this my friend we need you back…..or I’m going to have to hurt someone😠! You need to talk me off the San Jacinto bridge, before I jump!!!

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  36. I think Beltran got screwed on the bases by the 2B ump. It was a lazy turn coming back to 1B, but his intention was pretty obvious the entire time. I’m surprised they called that – especially with no possible play at first.

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    • 45, you are totally on the mark, whether you want to be or not. It does not matter in which way you win the most possible games out of 162. And to date, I still think we’re doing it at a better pace than every team in MLB but one.

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  39. WHEW!!! That was a grinder of a game. My blood pressure can’t take too many games like that! DALLAS KEUCHEL IS BAAACK!!

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    • The ace of your staff is the guy you look to, to stop a losing streak.
      Last year, the Rangers find a way to win that game.
      BABIP is a haunting thing for a team who has hit so well.
      The experienced guys carried the day today: Altuve, Marwin with the ground out that moved the runner to third, Beltran, Keuchel and Giles. Gurriel’s defense.
      First game I’ve watched this week. Family things dominate.

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  42. It was good to finally get a win. The offense is still MIA, but Keuchel looked very good and that is the biggest positive from today. His velocity was consistently 89-90 and he was hitting the edges of the strikezone again. Hopefully, this latest DL stint will get McCullers back to his normal self and we can get on a roll n September.

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  44. Yes, and he got to 91 a couple of times. And let’s not forget that we’ve got a pretty good shortstop to put back in the middle of the lineup before long. And maybe that Harris guy? Things could be worse.

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  45. The Astros are trying to acquire Tyler Clippard from the White Sox. Thus won’t appease the fan base, but he’s a serviceable bullpen arm. He’s a free agent at the end of the year so the cost should be minimal.

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  46. Tim, you are correct. I got an email a bit ago. But what role does he play? I like Musgrove more right now. Does that mean the news on Harris is not good?

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  47. Yep it appears Luhnow pulled off a trade for Clippard, and I’m happy! This bullpen needs help, plus he sat our guys down TWICE last week! Heard the radio guys say they don’t anticipate having Harris back before the end of the month, or first of Sept.
    I’m sure we didn’t trade a top prospect for him, or sending a bunch of cash to the Sox. Who knows……he might find his old self with this organization, plus who wouldn’t want to leave the worst team in the AL, for a team with a double digit lead in the AL West!!! Welcome Tyler Clippard!!!

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    • I think there is something significantly wrong with Feliz as his velocity and command really headed south. As for Sipp, those pesky calf injuries can sure linger on, perhaps until November.

      I’m going to be interested in who goes down to Fresno. The logical guy would be Guduan but that leaves Liriano as the only lefty in the bullpen and he’s ALMOST made me long for Sipp. Why not anoint Devo our lefty specialist since they hit about .100 against him?

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