For the Astros and you, it’s a twofer Tuesday

172 responses to “For the Astros and you, it’s a twofer Tuesday”

1. Good game for the good guys last night. Great pitching with lots of strikeouts (13 with Giles getting 0 in the 9th.
   Struggled hitting a bit though they did hit in some bad luck at times. Correa totally smoked one that got flagged down and a number of other folks lined into outs.
   Big HRs by Jake, Springer and Fisher who was told he was being sent down before the game. Nice job getting his feet wet in the majors and he will know what it is about when he appears again.

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2. Doing this exercise, you realize just how little pitching is out there. The Reds have an ace named Feldman. From what we’re seen out of Fiers, Martes, Paulino and especially Peacock as of late, there is no urgency in picking up a starter. Those guys have done a great job. Many teams would love to have any of these arms in their rotation, who are essentially back up starters for us when everyone is healthy. Would Sonny Gray going to give us more? Not when considering his price.

   On the flip side, just before I fell asleep last night, we had Sipp and Harris standing next to each other in the pen with Alonzo coming up. Harris got the call. Why even keep Sipp on the roster at this point if we can’t use him to get a lefty bat out? We really are not pressed to go out and get a starter right now unless Luhnow knows that Keuchel and McCullers are not 100% and are not going to be 100%. What we really need is a replacement for Sipp.

   Boy, what an excelllent relay last night to keep the tying run from scoring. Took a bit of the sting out of seeing Altuve get gunned down on Sunday night.

   Great to know that Fisher is ready to play at the ML level. He’ll be back up soon. I hope playing for the Astros.

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3. I still think Billy Beane will look at how many teams they have to pass for the WC and realize selling is his best option this year. An Astros series win this week might help make the decision a bit easier for Beane. I say this because I am fairly comfortable with the fact the Rays will not be sellers, thus taking Archer out of the equation. Therefore, the one pitcher that really entices me is Sonny Gray. His injury history is a concern and this should lessen the cost a little, but he has electric stuff and one of the best curveballs in baseball. I drool at the thought of a rotation that includes Keuchel, McCullers and Gray. I think Luhnow can get him without including Tucker, but it will probably cost something like Martes, Paulino, Teo (or Cameron/Dawson) and a high upside low minors guy. Reed may be an option to include in this trade as well.

   I understand some of the frustration with sending Fisher back to the minors, but it has only been 1 week of performance (one in which he really impressed) and I’m sure this was discussed with him prior to be calling up. The kid looked really good and, assuming he is not included in a trade, he will probably be part of the equation in the 2nd half of the season. Aoki is on a 1-year deal and has picked it up lately, but they won’t hesitate to DFA him if he isn’t pulling his weight by the middle of August.

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   • I disagree. I strongly suspect the Rays WILL be sellers come July 31st. I predict they will falter to the Sox, Yankees, AND Baltimore over time.

     I think Archer is the better option over Sonny Gray.

     Ref: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/01/26/trade-deadline-predictions

     I also like Fisher’s lefty power bat. I wish they’d keep him in The Bigs a spell longer…

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     • I would take Archer over Gray also, but Archer won’t get traded. I’m very confident with this call.

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4. Fangraphs scouting report on Derek Fisher circa June 15:

   “Fisher had more than earned this opportunity, slashing .335/.401/.608 at Triple-A this year. A power-speed threat, Fisher eclipsed 20 homers and 20 steals in both 2015 and 2016, and Eric Longenhagen gave him raw power and speed grades of 60 and 70, respectively. Fisher had a bit of a strikeout problem in the past, but has managed to slice his strikeout rate from 27% last year to 19% this year without sacrificing any of his power.

   KATOH loves Fisher, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given his excellent performance this year. I have him projected for 8.1 WAR over his first six seasons by stats-only KATOH and 6.3 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates Eric Longenhagen’s relatively modest 45 FV grade. Those projections make him the 18th- and 48th-best prospect in baseball, respectively.”

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5. Just spit ballin’ here….

   Based on daveb’s comment above – I was wondering what might be available from some of the teams out of the race for a lefty reliever.

   SF and Philly – plenty of nothing
   SD – Folks have mentioned Brad Hand a number of times – however on his splits…. Left handed batters have a 0.721 OPS against him while rightys have a 0.576 OPS against him. Might as well bring in Will Harris.
   Miami – Their best lefty reliever is a rookie Jarlin Garcia with a .175 BA against and a .559 OPS against…but he is a rookie
   Braves – Sam Freeman is a 30 yr old journey man who has good numbers against leftys
   Mets – This is the one – this is the guy I would chase – 33+++ y.o. Jerry Blevins – good overall with a 2.25 ERA but his numbers against leftys this yr…… .105 BAA and a microscopic .269 OPS. In 57 ABs against him this year leftys have 6 singles and no extra base hits. And how much do they want for an older reliever?

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   • Dan, they will want one of our better prospects and then another guy. But that might be a real addition. He’s got pretty good stats. My only concern is that the Mets have already used him 36 times. Blivens is a free agent after 2017. The Mets need to do something with him unless they think they can make a run.

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   • Blevins is strictly a LOOGY. He faces one or two batters only.
     He has gotten them out, but has not faced many good teams. He has actually come in and faced only three teams with winning records, Washington and Milwaukee and Arizona and the first two he has pretty high numbers on. He has pitched well against bad teams, but not faced many good teams. Do we want to go into the AL playoffs with a LOOGY with an 88 MPH fastball and a 70 MPH curve. He throws a changeup less than 4% of the time so he lives on two pitches.
     He’s done well against poor teams, but we won’t face any poor teams in the playoffs.

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6. I am ready for another Salty Morton trade. One where I say, “what was Luhnow thinking .” However to pat myself on the back, I said the same thing with Conger.

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7. Sorry – I am having a hard time even giving up a secondary “haul” for Sonny Gray.
   Last 4 starts
   – 4.2 IP – 7 runs
   – 7.0 IP – 3 runs
   – 6 IP – 5 runs (2 earned)
   – 5.1 IP 3 runs

   I’m not seeing where he is bringing much more than we are already getting from subs.
   Maybe he is pitching down because his team is bad. Maybe he is pitching down because of the trade talk. I don’t know. What would you expect from him and what would you pay for him?

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   • Gray has a 3.32 FIP and 3.27 xFIP. Oakland has probably the worst defensive team in baseball so don’t read too much into his ERA. He also has a .329 BABIP so some improvement can be expected. Finally, his K/9 is 9.09. Sonny Gray, when healthy, is a very good pitcher and probably the best pitcher available at the deadline.

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8. Any player brought in from another organization midseason runs the risk of upsetting chemistry & tenure on a team which is dominating MLB. Stros aren’t losing games by wide margins, so there are no obvious sore spots on this pitching staff (with the possible exception of Sipp, whose salary makes him immovable). It’s already tough enough for game-ready Astro minor leaguers to gain a continued 25-man roster spot. In short, I’m not in favor of any trades right now, especially if they include; Martes, Fisher, Paulino or Tucker. We have a number of fringier-type guys. Martin, White, Reed, Cameron (and a $4M investment), Rogers, Hauschild, Ferrell, who should be considered in a multi way beforehand, primarily because these are positions we are already fortified by guys like; Alvarez, Moran, Centeno and Stubbs, Armenteros.

   Thinking that a pitcher with the kind of stuff needed to win playoff games will be necessary (given that our current DL is full of studs) or available at a lesser cost than Group A, is not only conjecture, but it assumes we’ll know more about some other team’s players than our own. Who knows what is going on with Gray, or Quintana? The argument against these statements however might include the expert scouting we had on Morton.

   Hitch’s depth options include the ability to yank anyone who doesn’t have his stuff on any given night, hence the Hoyt move on Sunday. At the critical junction in that game, it was the umpire ringing up Gurriel which turned the tide and took the bat out of our hands. We have one, if not the deepest teams in the history of Astros baseball.

   Think of it this way. Yes, HOU could part with Bregman, Aoki, Gonzalez, a starter like Fiers, or a top prospect. But, why? We’re in the best position to dictate terms, whereas before the season began, almost the entire baseball world said we needed starter help. So far, by hanging onto these players, we’ve proven to have gained value rather than lose it.

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   • Sipp will not keep a roster spot on this 2017 version of the Astros simply based on what he’s getting paid. He can be moved to his couch.

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     • I wrote, “possible.” Since his overall numbers are atrocious, if your statement were true, then he may well have already been sitting on a couch, given that we have Guduan, RHP’s with good numbers against left (Harris, Hoyt and Devenski to name a few), and currently a comparatively average market salaried team which would allow a move now. Additionally, he will remain on this team if he pitches serviceably, which he has done in spurts. April through July is also “the 2017 version of the Astros”.

       My opinion is based on the propensity of keeping Carlos Gomez for as long as we did last season at only $3M per season more than Sipp, when we had several other OF options, and in a season which by most accounts was over in April, if not for a heroic, never-say-die performance. Hinch’s preseason comments about “needing Tony” to do well speaks to the organization’s knowing more than fans’ feelings. The two viable options currently are not to DFA him; but, for him to hit the DL, or to gain some trade value by pitching him in lower leverage situations and finding some success. The latter is the obvious tack we’ve taken, because (in effect) $9.5M remaining is no chicken scratch.

       One other thing to consider is that you make more of needing a LOOGY, or conventional wisdom about which side of the plate makes for better matchups, than do the Astros FO. One example is this blog’s preseason comments about Reddick and his history against LHP, which has proven to be unfounded this season.

       I agree that Sipp is by far the biggest concern since Day 1, but if Fisher or the next good performance isn’t enough to force out the weakest link, then what is?

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     • That’s quite a retort. After having read it, I’m too exhausted to respond. I would not know where to start.

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     • We can’t move Sipp in a trade, you know that much. It was an aside to my original point that we have a stacked pitching staff relative to “needing” another arm vs “wanting” another arm.

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9. I’m going to leave McHugh out of the discussion because I think he is at least a month away from pitching for us and another month after that from being trustworthy.
   When the Astros get their pitchers back they will have Keuchel, LMJ, Morton, Fiers, Musgrove, Peacock, Martes and Paulino as potential starters.
   All of those guys have started and all of them have won games and none of them has looked worse than a decent #5 starter and the last four are still learning.
   Tonight’s game has huge ramifications for the present and the future. Martes made his first start in a home game in front of a huge crowd against a Ranger team who had beaten Houston the previous two nights and he kicked their butts.
   What if Martes pitches well tonight, on the road against Sonny Gray and beats the A’s? If he does, why would you trade him for Gray, who is five years older, has a history of being hurt and, at 5’10’ and 190 lbs, has definitely reached his ceiling. Martes has always had TOR as his ceiling and could give you six inexpensive years of that ceiling, starting next spring, but could also be a heck of a guy out of the bullpen in the stretch run this season.
   Before, when we talked about trading Martes and Paulino, we were talking about them as prospects. Now we are starting to see them as incredibly young major league pitches who are doing it in the bigs and helping us win. There’s a difference and I don’t know if I see a fair trade for them and other young guys in a package for an older pitcher.
   Now that I’ve seen them face MLB hitters and win, it’s kind of like trading Fisher. I’m not sure I want to do it. Fisher looked a ton better as a fielder in MMP than I was expecting and his hit against an unhittable Kimbrel Sunday night was the single most impressive thing I saw him do. Trust me, Fisher’s worth took a huge leap forward in five games at the major league level and the Astros are going to need a new starting LFer in 2018.

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   • These comments are well said and on target today, but a repeat of what was said by those in the offseason, who were against trading top prospects based on management’s intentions when drafting them, signs they could stick and stay, and implementing them here not as trade bait. What has changed things beyond their playing well enough to make an impact on this squad is this season’s draft (Cardinal monies), the cushion we have in the standings, and getting more than expected in McCann, Beltran’s leadership, Reddick’s hitting, Morton’s pitching – a group which has gelled to the dismay of the rest of the league.

     I do think a trade is imminent, but I question it based on reasons stated, and because I truly believe we have World Series Champions in-house.

     I have a friend who has lived in Australia awhile now, who has been a lifelong Stros fan asking me, “is it true, we’re really that good – or, are we peaking too soon?!” My response is that we’re loaded like never before, in a weak division, with our best players getting good rest, not having played our best ball yet, but with game changers and unlikely heroes at every spot in the lineup…

     There’s a long way to go, and much to be said for staying healthy and carrying momentum into the playoffs, making up for managerial disadvantages (whether they exist), and for good old-fashioned luck. But I’ll be more surprised if the 2017 Astros are not the best team in Oct, than if they are not. As is.

     As Devin said, I could be convinced otherwise with the right trade, but unless there’s a rabbit to be pulled out of a hat, it’s not apparent that the ghost of Randy Johnson will materialize.

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     • By the way – welcome Grayson – not sure if you have been here before or if you were here under another name.

       I have a question – how much would you give up to pick up a pitcher who is making major league minimum, does not become a FA until 2021, has a 4-1 record, 2.82 ERA, 1.187 WHIP and a whopping 13.3 K’s / 9 IPs?
       Well you don’t have to give up anything because Brad Peacock pitches for the Astros right now.

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     • Thank you, Dan P.

       Peacock, Paulino, Martes, possibly Feliz and Devenski have been discussed, and are starters by trade. They can all be longmen, too!

       All these names make us forget about the need for McHugh, the fact that Morton has trouble third time through a lineup, or Fiers the first few innings. As I look at that powerful punch of Keuchel and McCullers, I’d think we have enough to nip any poor outings in the bud with the supporting cast.

       My biggest criticism with an addition, like 2015 Kasmir, is like Forrest Gump’s mother – ya never know what you’re gonna get.

       I share Becky’s hope in Luhnow, I just don’t have a good a suggestion yet. And I see many more years of quality service in those mentioned in baby Tuck, Francis David and Derek.

       I could go on however in being happy with the progress of Tony Kemp, Colin Moran, Alvarez, even Tyler White, and potentially AJ Reed, etc. We all have favorites and untouchables, but it’s where we allow emotion to block what’s necessary for the ultimate goal. And that’s the question: would you trade a 2017 World Series for two in 2018 and 2019? With advanced predictive systems, I too trust the technology beyond my own eye test. Not sure my heart could take it if we don’t go All In this year, though, either. I want a dynasty much as the next fan. Now, Luhnow, work your magic!

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10. Yeah, I’ve come full circle on what I might have done as far as trades go, as recently as a couple of weeks ago. We have much more talent than most clubs. I’m not willing to lose anyone significant at this point. That might change again in a few weeks.

    Dan, if you can work your trade for the lefty, without giving up one of our front line prospects, please proceed.

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11. The ‘recovery’ should start tonight. The first of our heroes to escape the DL – Josh Reddick – should be back on the field. DL – LET OUR PEOPLE GO!

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12. What I’m seeing is Martes, Paulino, and Fisher maintaining or improving their value – as pieces on our roster or as trade bait. If I’m Luhnow I am telling the other GMs that the asking price for Gray, Archer, Quintana, and any non-LHP needs to fall precipitously. Go ahead and deal to someone else…then face these guys in Astros uniforms for many years to come at cost near the league minimum. Alternatively, make us a fair offer. I’m probably not picking up the phone when Rick Hahn calls on principle, though.

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13. Wonder what we could get in a package of Teoscar Hernandez and AJ Reed.Both are blocked at the major league level. Heck thrown in Preston Tucker too.

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    • There are a lot of teams that need outfielders. I started to look at which teams could use a 1B and discovered that Gurriel probably places us around 20-25th worst at the position depending on how you want to evaluate it.

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    • You might be able to get a rental like Clayton Richard for that package. You won’t get much.

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14. Luhnow WILL get another front line pitcher…..watch him.

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    • *V O T E*!!

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      • All Star Game voting or voting for the special congressional election in Georgia?

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15. Really want to trade for a TOR or MOR? Astro-organization names that might start coming up in trade talks could include:

    1. Yordan Alvarez [19 y/o, presently at low A Quad Cities; 6′ 5″, 225 lb. power hitting first baseman/outfielder, presently hitting .360/.468/1.125, with 9 HR and 33 RBI in only 32 games.] This guy could make us forget about A.J. Reed. I sure hope we don’t trade him.

    2. Yoanys Quiala [23 y/o, just debuted at Corpus; 6’3″, 235 lb. righty; had a great first half at Buies Creek [5-1, 2.31 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, with 59 Ks in 58 IP]. This is one has to be turning some heads. Guys like him do not grow on trees – especially in our organization!

    3. Cionel Perez [21 y/o righty, just getting his feet under him at low A Quad Cities; he had a bit of a rocky start with the River Bandits, but when he is ‘on’ – and he has been several times lately for QC – he is just about unhittable]. He might not mind a change of organization, since he feels we slighted him on his signing bonus.

    4. J.D. Davis [3rd baseman, presently raking at Corpus; his slash line is .294/.360/.912, with 17 HR and 40 RBI in 62 games]. J.D. is MLB ready at 24 but appears to be blocked by both Alex Bregman and Collin Moran, so he needs to change organizations if he is going to get a chance].

    5. J.B. Buskauskas [our 1st round draft pick this year; 6′ 195 lb. righty out of UNC; was 8-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 106 Ks in 82.0 IP for the Tar Heels this year; has been compared to Sonny Gray]. If we go shopping for a TOR, I would assume any GM will want our #1 draft pick this year.

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    • Interesting names Mr. Bill – I’m pretty sure guys who have been drafted cannot be traded for a year (not sure if that is from the date of drafting or the date of signing). Speaking of which has anyone seen where we have signed any of our picks as of yet?

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      • The rule changed due to Trea Turner’s treatment. They cannot be traded until after the WS completes. They can still be a PTBNL. It’s not perfect, but at least it’s better than it was.

        TCB is updating their MLB draft page from time to time with signings. As of right now they report the following:

        1. Bukauskas –
        2. Perez –
        2. Martin – (A&M)
        CB. Matijevic – SIGNED
        3. Ivey –
        4. Solomon – SIGNED
        5. Perry –
        6. Adams – SIGNED
        7. Mushinski – SIGNED
        8. Julks – SIGNED
        9. Papierski (LSU)
        10. Serrano –

        That means 5/12 from our first ten rounds have signed. Two aren’t eligible until they’re eliminated from CWS. The importance is that not signing guys in the top ten rounds deducts from the available signing pool money. Bukauskas is going to require an overslot amount I imagine.

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    • I meant to say that #3, Cionel Perez, is a lefty, not a righty. That makes him even more in demand – and even more valuable to our lefty-starved organization.

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16. Here is Fangragh’s view of the Astros fielding where the team is 26th in baseball in the fielding stats. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=21&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
    What do you see, compared to what you see on the field?
    Here is some things I see on the sheet:
    George Springer is a much better CFer than he is a RFer.
    Marwin can play almost anywhere, but is not a plus defender anywhere.
    Carlos Correa is a much better defender at SS than Jose Altuve is at 2B.
    Yuli Gurriel(page 2, in case you didn’t see him) is the least productive defender on the Astros at his designated position and Alex Bregman is the the second least.
    Our catchers are plus defenders, but not as much as Castro was. They are so much better than he was offensively, his defense didn’t matter.
    Josh Reddick is a good LFer.

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    • I take those with a grain of salt. I think your observations are correct, but let’s be realistic – if the Astros put Jason Heyward in RF then that ball that Springer cut-off on the 9-6-2 relay gets to the wall and the A’s tie the game. It was a huge play the “best” right fielders don’t make.

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      • My comment about Springer’s fielding was not to replace him in RF with anyone else, but to put him in CF where he has belonged for the last three years. My Eyes tell me that and that sheet tells me the same thing. If the Astros don’t believe their eyes, they surely know how to look at the stats.

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    • I’m getting up into the relic range, but I don’t fully accept the reliability of some of these defensive stats when the game continues to be reinvented so quickly. How many teams were even shifting regularly five years ago? And outfield shifts? Playing the infield in three innings into a game to cut off an early run? Can the programmers keep up with everything and program for accurate results?

      I agree that George is the best overall centerfielder in the game today, at least when you look at him both offensively and defensively. I’m not sure who’s been saying it longer, but OP and I certainly agree in this regard. And Marwin is not very good defensively anywhere. Just last year, Correa did not have great defensive stats. Altuve was pretty good on paper. Yes, Correa has improved, as any 22 year old should. But has Altuve regressed? I don’t see it. Yuli definitely deserves to be on page 2. One thing the stats certainly confirm is that we’ve got excellent strength up the middle. That’s still important, right?

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      • Jake has more 5 star and 4 star catches, where he incidentally was playing in CF, than any other fielder in the game. Would he have had the same opportunities to make those plays in a different field? I find these questions subjective to opportunity. Yes, Springer belongs in CF, but what does it hurt that he’s in RF, given that he probably has a better arm than even Jake? Isn’t it six, one half dozen, or another? We still have an OF with 3 red lights when Jake George and Josh are roaming it.

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17. The Story of Chef Hoosecow, Sweet Sonny, and the AL West Dwarfs – Episode 1

    Deep in the middle of a great cornfield once owned by Kevin Costner, a wily warlock named Chef Hoosecow sat and pondered advanced sabermetrics. As usual, Chef was multi-tasking. Along with pondering sabermetrics he was sewing a great banner on which he planned to embroider the words ‘Houston Astros, World Series Champions 2017’. Alas, as Chef was busy pondering, sewing, and singing karaoke to song by Gladys Knight and the FIPs, the poor man pricked his finger with his sewing needle. Huge drops of blood began to fall all over the big pile money that Ichabod Crane had been left sitting on the warlock’s sewing-room table. The wily warlock exclaimed: ‘How I wish that I had used all this money to acquire another pitcher for the playoff run who had a slider and change-up as sharp as this needle, with a fastball as fluid as this blood!’

    It just so happened that, wandering in the forest that very same day, about the same hour, was a darling young man named ‘Sweet Sonny’. Sonny had not exactly been having his best year. In fact, he had been seen stumbling a lot lately. And this particular day as he walked through a very Gray area, he stumbled again. Down, down, down he fell, into a great cellar. When he landed, he found himself surrounded by four really ugly dwarfs.

    The first dwarf that Sonny saw after coming to a rough landing wore a red baseball cap with white ‘T’ on the front. ‘What do they call you, you unpleasant little fellow?’, asked Sonny. They call me ‘Grumpy’, replied the first dwarf; ‘what’s it to ya?’ It was not hard to see how this guy got his name. The obnoxious little twit with the white ‘T’ on the front of his baseball cap was grumpy indeed! Grumpiness seemed to be his approach to everything. Ask Joe West about his experience with Adrian Beltre! ‘Grumpy is a real jerk!’ thought Sonny. And, of course, Sonny was right.

    The second dwarf that caught Sonny’s eye from the floor of the cellar into which he had fallen wore a baseball cap with a big letter ‘A’, topped off with a halo, on the front. “What is your name?” asked Sweet Sonny. ‘They call me’ Dopey’, came the dim-witted, halo-hatted little munchkin’s reply. And indeed, this dwarf ate, slept, and spent money like it was going out of style in the land of dope and dopes. Moreover, he always seemed to be taking selfies of himself with a Trout face. And he always seemed to be stepping in Poo Holes. Hmmn. ‘Dopey’ sure has and spends a lot of money’, said Sweet Sonny – ‘but he sure doesn’t seem to be able to get himself together!’

    The third dwarf that Sonny met wore a black baseball cap with a big white ‘S’, on the front. The crook of the ‘S’ was what appeared to be the face of a compass. So what do they call you?’, Sonny asked this little person. ‘I am ‘Doc’, replied the tiny fellow. They call me that because I get hurt a lot, and spend a ton of time in the examining room. ‘I’m not sure this guy can stay on the field long enough to make a run’, thought Sonny.

    The fourth and final dwarf that Sweet Sonny saw there in the cellar that day was dressed just like him – in the ugliest green and yellow costume you ever saw. ‘Do you have a name?’ Sonny asked. ‘Yes’, came the reply. You can call me ‘
    Sleepy’. ‘I get it’ said Sonny – ‘because just being you – not to mention having to wear that ugly uniform every night – has to be the ultimate recurring nightmare!’ Insulted, the dwarf turned to Sweet Sonny and said: “Hey, if you don’t shut your trap, I’m going to sell you cheap to that wily warlock Chef Hoosecow!’

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    • And we all live happily ever after.
      Awww, Mrs1OP loves Costner, even when he is clothed.
      Don’t give up Tuesday for Sweet Sonny.

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    • Priceless!

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    • We’re not worthy – we’re not worthy

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18. Buried in deep trivia some day, may be the following question: “Which MLB outfielder was on track to hit 64.8 home runs but was sent back down to learn the trade?”

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    • Fisher? And isn’t it interesting that the line used in articles and broadcasts for Martes prior to being called up was, “having control problems, needs more time in Fresno”?

      What is notable is the huge discrepancy in pay for MiLB players, then how they must say all the right things when demoted again. This season I’m reminded of the bad luck of Teoscar Hernandez. Last season, Tony Kemp. Wouldn’t adding on to an already deep farm to include a 26-man roster favor the Astros, and hurt the smaller market teams?

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19. So far in the first inning of tonight’s game……Sweet Sony can’t find the strike zone.

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20. Sonny Grays tryout looks to be short and bad.

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21. Our guys have sent their GM a message.

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22. Disregard all my prior comments. Pass on Sonny Gray. 🙂

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    • A humble admission.😉

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23. How about Singleton for Sonny Gray?

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    • I would say throw in Sipp, but that would probably squirrel the deal.

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24. Martes can’t find the plate either. McCann needs to work some magic.

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25. I have to watch the score online tonight. Anyone still interested in Sonny Gray? Didn’t someone suggest that he is pitching poorly, in order to be traded? Probably picked the wrong team to do that against if he wanted to come here!

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26. Gray must be hurt again, because he NEVER walks guys like tonight. Yeah…..I’d have to say no thanks on him as well. Quintana is pitching like crap, Gray ain’t much better.
    Come on Tampa, TURN LOSE of Archer! Do you remember how Sony Gray just pummeled us in 2013-2014!!! DANG I do! Something has to be wrong with the dude.

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27. Mr. Peacock is gonna be a first time daddy this weekend! How cool is that!😃

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28. Signs of the second coming of Ted Williams?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/IanSteeleKIII/status/877363208830427137/video/1

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    • Pretty cool!!!

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29. Martes wants to give this back one nibble at a time. And Gray remembered how to pitch or we forgot to hit.

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30. I’m sitting in my recliner fussing at Martes, ànd I have to remember this kid is only pitching in his 2nd big league game….BUT……I think he has the stuff! Sending him back to Fresno to work on some things, will only improve his chances of coming back up in September and helping this team out.
    The arlington little league won tonight.

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    • I like Martes’ fire, and the comments he made in an interview in Spring Training through a translator that he was proud he had struck out some of the best players in the game vs Nats. Maybe he does need “seasoning,” but why do we call it that for a rookie, then say of someone like Fiers that he’s struggling just because there’s nowhere to put Mike. Doesn’t seem fair, the semantics. I’m pulling for Francis, personally, too.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/astros/status/877374015580647424?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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31. Apparently Feliz has caught the virus. We’ll call it the Paulinomartesitis. It keeps pitchers from throwing fastballs below the belt.

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32. Every time Hendricks threw a pitch to Altuve that was nowhere near the plate, he acted like he was upset that he missed his target, That was funny, because he did not want to be anywhere near the plate and chose to pitch to Correa, who promptly burned him. Astros up 7-4 going to the bottom of the 8th. Hope Gregerson has his slider working tonight.

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33. Astros win, 8-4, are 48-24 and have 12 game lead on the division. Game ends at 12:30 our time.

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    • I went to sleep before the end of the game. However Sonny Gray and the A’s went to sleep in the first inning.

      If Bregman is our worst fielder (or Margo) they would be the star in Oakland.

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34. Well, we just go pick up Brian Howard, right?

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    • Is that like Ryan Howard’s twin brother?

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      • He’s the TCU pitcher who beat A&M yesterday. We drafted him last season, but he returned to school. This year he was drafted by Oakland in the 8th round.

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35. Recognition? Thanks to Astros County for this link:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-astros-hit-on-a-winning-formula-lots-of-home-runs-no-strikeouts-1497888821
    I slept late because I stayed up late to watch a ball game. I’m going to skip school today. 1OP is a bad boy.

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    • School? Is that like uber uber high higher highest school?

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      • If 1OP goes any “higher”, he will be at the pearly gates.

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      • Dan, have you been ingesting or inhaling this morning?

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      • Actually had to abstain as I drove 4 hours today. We are taking a few days off up in the hill country – at Fredericksburg today!

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      • Oh boy, does that sound good, especially with Cindy lurking. Love the hill country and West Texas too. Enjoy!

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36. Yes, these West Coast road trips sure screw up my schedule too. I’m just getting out now to deal with the day at hand. I should not be staying up until 1:30 AM local time on a school night!

    Dan, how are you coming with the Blivens transaction?

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    • Should be done any day – trying to package Singleton Aoki and Sipp in my dream league

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37. When is the last time Sipp and Gregerson both came into a game with the lead and did their jobs? Congratulations.
    I said before the season started that if the Astros projected starting lineup hit their batting averages from the 2016 season they would hit .279.7. Right now, the Astros lead the major leagues with a team batting average of .279. They also lead in HRs, SLG and OPS. Marisnick and Marwin have more than kept up their end of the bargain.
    The Astros play two more in Oakland, three in Seattle, get a day off and then play three against Oakland at home followed by three against the Yankees and another day off before a road trip to Atlanta and Toronto. The comes the All-Star break.
    Just my opinion, but I think they try to make it without Keuchel until after the break.

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    • Holding Keuchel out until the break is over pretty much guarantees a rested ace as deep as we go into the post season, assuming good health. With a 12 game lead still today, yeah, I’d go for that. And ideally another break for Lance somewhere along the way would be in order too.

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38. What if – instead of (or maybe in addition to) targeting Sonny Gray – the Astros targeted left-handed reliever Daniel Coulombe [27 y/o]? Against lefties this year DC has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a .183 BAA. Overall he has a 1.85 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a .205 BAA.

    While Coulombe is from Arizona originally, he finished his college career at Texas Tech, so he has some Texas ties. He’s already had TJ surgery [2011]. He was drafted in 2012 and debuted as a September call-up in 2014, so I presume he is arbitration eligible next year.

    Any thoughts?

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    • Great target, but he doesn’t hit arbitration until 2019 and has team control until 2023. I’m not sure if he has one more option remaining or if he’s all out. The problem with acquiring him is you have to also be willing to cut bait with Tony Sipp (which fans are) or find another spot in the bullpen to stash him. Diaz and Martes go back to Fresno when Keuchel and LMJ return. If McHugh ever returns we have another dilemna. So, my scenario is that Oakland accepts Sipp + prospect(s) + money for him…but that still leaves us with only one LHP.

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      • Based on performance, if McHugh returns – or if Sonny Gray comes with Coulombe – I personally would be for sending Musgrove back down to AAA. He got rushed up last year, and if he’s going to make it in the bigs with something better than his current 5+ ERA, 1.4+ WHIP, and .280+ BAA, he needs to work on some issues that he can’t really work on in live games facing MLB hitters.

        If we only have 1 lefty reliever – which looks like a given – let me just say that I would much rather that lefty reliever be Coulombe than Sipp.

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      • I think you’re right. Fiers has no options and Feliz has been very valuable in the bullpen. The other reasons you mention for sending Musgrove for seasoning (and possible inning limiting) are spot on as well.

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      • You forgot Morton. He will be back before Keuchel. The Astros still have some time on Sipp. Remember that Luhnow was able to trade Neshek for nothing and get rid of his salary. Now the Phillies will trade him for prospects at the deadline. Maybe we could work a deal with Philly during the offseason for Sipp and see if he can rebound in the National League, where there are few good teams.

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      • Had to listen to radio on Rey Guduan, but why the slight here on his being ‘that guy’ of the not-too-distant future? Was he missing glove that obviously? Is he missing a pitch in reportoise? He can certainly deliver the flames.

        Del Gustave out for season today. And how does forearm injury move to TJ surgery?

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      • Guduan’s problem at every level is Ks per walk – walks so many his K/BB is never over 2.00

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      • Grayson, I have noticed in the last two years that almost every elbow reconstruction is the result of an injury that first involved discomfort in the forearm.
        Do some research and you will find this, also.
        The Astros do not EVER talk about an injury to a prospect in the minors if it has any chance of ending up in reconstructive surgery until the deed is done. That is the way they do business.
        There are cases where TJ Surgery is the last effort. Gustave and the Astros must have tried every other avenue and it did not work.

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      • Yes, Dan, but we’re talking lefty specialist. Last night Sipp was used for 1 out, I saw in the stat line.

        In that role the walk usually comes after the main batter is retired, as he’s trying to stretch out.

        Also, going on past stats isn’t a perfect science if those are built on “working on things” in the minors. I thought Guduan was sent right back down after last appearance, because there’s no room with Sipp occupying. Eventually, we have to give these guys more than a cup of coffee to see.

        Case in point, Martes. How do we argue with 2 division wins (Rangers, A’s) in two tries? Feels like wanting perfection from a 21 year old. If I were him I’d be discouraged after delivering the goods.

        Even after reading Mr. Bill’s et al convincing comments about needing to work on wipeout pitches, or wasting pitches, I’d argue that “the book” on Strom, Hinch or McCann strategy is to waste a pitch or two on 0-2 counts, instead of mixing it up and going right after them with some part of the plate. We seem to predictable in that sense. But then we criticize for more walks, when pitchers aren’t allowed to be aggressive. Double standard. Thoughts?

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      • Good info, Op, I will research. And yes, I’ve noticed the tight-lipped nature of the organization. Luhnow in particular, which has its obvious advantages.

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39. I agree that Musgrove needs some more work. He’s not used to having guys hit his strike three pitch. He’s got to develop something better to close out an at bat. And he has to learn to waste a pitch.

    I don’t like Gray. I think we can get more out of our guys in house. But I still think Luhnow will still try and make a deal for a third playoff starter by the deadline. It’s not nearly as urgent as it was a couple of weeks ago though.

    And I still like the idea of Blevins. As a free agent, we won’t need to give up a whole lot for the guy, comparatively speaking anyway. And if Sipp goes to the Mets in return, all the better. We’d probably have to pay part of his salary though.

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    • Maybe Lance could sit down with Musgrove and work on that wipeout curve ball. He managed to get Fiers’s curve fixed.

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40. It is time for the Astros to figure Sean Manaea out and break some curses. What do I mean?

    The o-fer curse:
    Jose Altuve is 0-11 lifetime against Manaea.
    Marisnick is 0-6.
    Bregman is 0-3.

    The 1-fer curse:
    Carlos Correa is 1-10.
    Beltran is 1-8.
    Marwin is 1-7, as is Gurriel.
    Aoki is 1-5.

    George Springer has the best BA against him on our team, and it is only .273.
    The only current Astro with an HR against him is Evan Gattis, who is hitting .250 against him.

    Break the dark, sinister Manaea Curse; support your local Astros.

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41. Good evening all! I agree that McCullers should teach that curve ball to Big Joe.
    And….Lord, if we have to wait until the break to get Keuchel back, that’s gonna test my last DANG nerve! All I can say about Hinch, is he must have had Devine intervention to put Sipp in last night. I was really disappointed with Gray last night.
    I thought he would fight the guys tooth and toenail last night……I would have loved the Sonny Gray we saw in 2014. I still think Luhnow is going to pull off a trade, I just hope he surprises ALL of us, and sign a guy we haven’t talked about! I absolutely LOVE the way this team has blended together! They really have an identity, you can’t teach that……it comes from those guys on the field. I feel good about this road trip.

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42. About these two topics, which I have been avoiding.
    1. I think the Texas Rangers are not pushovers and will have to be reckoned with.
    The Angels who ran all over us and didn’t have Trout will not be as easy to pitch to but will still give up runs.
    I think Seattle will be a much better team when all their pitchers get healthy but will not be as good as Houston.
    Oakland is like a woodpecker. They will peck at you all day long but they can’t knock the tree down.
    2. I think we are thinking too much about these trades. Luhnow looking for a trade is like a designer looking to buy a house. You can show him a hundred houses that you think he would like, but he will make a deal only on the one he loves. I think he is going to look at every house that is available, fall in love with it and go buy it at just the right time. He has never let anyone tell him how to do it. He’s the man and I will just sit back and wait for it to happen. I will sit back and dream of my favorite cigar, which I can no longer smoke, and my favorite whiskey, which I can no longer afford, and be satisfied with his choice

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    • I’ve been impressed by Adrelton Simmons, and Cole Calhoun’s continued offensive improvement. Agree. But their pitching took a step back when our hitting (new personnel) moved forward. Trout loss was their back breaker.

      Rangers without Moreland, Beltran and Desmond are worse, even though Mazara has come of age nicely for them. Their bullpen with Dyson and Barnette taking hits has suffered, while the return of Beltre is a game changer. We seemed to have a little better success with Odor, while he has absolutely torn us up in the past.

      The guy that killed M’s success is the loss of Segura (Iwakuma and Hernandez), and the fact that besides Paxton, we’ve had our way with their pitching. I’m not worried about them because we still haven’t shown them our best. Paxton is the guy I’d give a king’s ransom for.

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43. Finally they break through – go Astros

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    • Can’t watch the game tonight either, but … Who would have ever predicted that Mike Fiers make this kind of turnaround after leading the league in HR’s? Allowed!

      Hats off to pitching coach, perseverance and to hard work. There’s something to be said for sticking with what we’ve got.

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      • Join the club……I can’t see ANY of them, unless they are playing the arlington little league.😠

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44. Fires is still pitching…..but his fairy God Mother is threatening to turn him back into a TOAD. Don’t look know but Hinch is playing with fire again tonight, Sipp and Gregersen are warming up. Lord help us!! YIKES!!!

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    • Fiers last 5 starts: 31.1 IP, 6 ER, 1.72 ERA. His season ERA lowered from 5.21 to 3.81. Astros now 26-8 on the road, 49-24 overall.

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45. *W H E W*!!!!

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46. YAY!!! WE WIN!

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47. Another great win tonight, 5-1. Here are the latest standings, as all the AL West teams have finished for the night(er,morning).
    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp
    Afternoon game Thursday. And Morton is scheduled to start for Fresno and go 2-3 innings.
    See ya!

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48. Maybe I’m wrong about this but I want to mention it because it could be important.
    Ken Giles has been a two pitch pitcher for three years. He throws a fastball at an average speed of 97.7 mph and a slider at 86.5 mph and this year he has been throwing them each right at 50% of the time.
    But, his two Ks to end the game against Oakland came on pitches that had no break, came out of his hand exactly like his fastball, ended up about ankle high as they crossed the plate, were at 87-88 mph, and totally bamfoozled the batters.
    I think Giles threw two straight changes to strike out both of those batters.
    If I’m right, that change up could have been a real good reason why he was in the game when it wasn’t a save situation.
    If he is working on a change up, the one I saw last night is going to fool a lot of hitters and is going to help him and the Astros.

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    • Interesting observation op. Tough to adjust to the slider from the fastball but adjusting then to a changeup – deadly.

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    • That was Manaea’s first home loss in 7 tries, Mr. Bill!

      And back-to-back nights of Gregerson and Sipp too, when you’d think Hoyt needs to figure out what happened to his normally excellent control. There’s your candidate for sending back down to Fresno. In 7 days he’s pitched less than 3 innings, one in the blowout of Arlington. He needs the work, and to stay sharp.

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    • I just watched the replay of the 9th inning. Both strikeouts looked like sliders to me. The game log also credits them as sliders. The break looked mainly 12-6, but I think it was the camera angle hiding it.

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      • Devin, I’m not arguing with you because you are my friend. Fangraphs says Giles has not thrown one change up since 2014, so the game logs would not even be looking for a change up.
        When the first one came out of his hand I thought it was a fastball because it came out of his hand like his fastball but ended up in the catcher’s mitt at ground level, which is unusual for a Giles fastball. I looked up at the graphics and they said 88 mph. I told Mrs 1OP that I thought he had thrown a change up. She sat there like”so what”.
        Then on the last batter he did the exact same thing. The pitch didn’t break like his slider and ended up by the dirt with the batter swinging way over the top of it. It was 87 mph and I told my wife that I thought he had thrown another straight change.
        Using history, you are probably right and I am wrong and it might have been sliders that just didn’t break and the batters were fooled badly.
        But it would be cool if Giles had gone to a change up to give the batters another pitch to worry about.

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      • No, I hope you’re right. It’s possible he was tinkering in some way last night. I’m going to make an effort to watch his outings more closely to see if he’s trying to give the hitters different looks or if last night was an anomaly.

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49. I read an article yesterday stating the Astros are still interested in Grey.
    If that’s true then either Luhnow has lost his mind or the Astros FO knows something we don’t.

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    • I wouldn’t judge Gray by his performance against the Astros. He faced the best hitting team he has ever faced on Tuesday night.
      After he settled in, he pitched well and when he left the game the Astros jumped all over his replacements.

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    • Grayson says, definitely grey area on Gray. All this talk sounds grave, when actually there isn’t a grey cloud in the sky where I sit. I’m so excited about the way this season is shaping up, winning is becoming apropos!

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    • I echo what OP says. Don’t judge Gray on this one start. His FIP and xFIP prior to that game were in line with McCullers. He also had a 9.1 K/9 going into this game.

      Listen, we should prepare ourselves that Luhnow is going to make a trade for a starting pitcher. What if Morton has recurring issues with his lat? What if Keuchel’s neck issue lingers into the playoffs? What if McCullers shoulder strain becomes a bigger issue? Are we comfortable that McHugh will return as the pitcher we know him to be? Are we comfortable going into the playoffs with Fiers as our ace and the same rotation we have now? I am not saying this is going to happen, but Luhnow must prepare for that possibility. With this being said I still think I would take Gray over Quintana and I am fairly confident Archer will not be traded. I also think the Astros, rightfully so, value K. Tucker over Fisher. Thus, would a package of Fisher, Paulino, Cameron/Dawson (this is an ‘or’ not ‘and’) and a lower level/high upside player really set us back much?

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      • Tim, if the A’s wanted to get a good look at Martes, Paulino and Fisher, they didn’t have to send any scouts out. The Astros are right in their house.

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      • Tim, have to reluctantly disagree with your assessment on Astros valuing PTuck over Fisher – not even close on the tools side (defense and base paths). The knock on Derek is his route taking and first step, of which, I wasn’t able to see any of that in the field in limited time. He looks the part in every way from these eyes!

        As for thoughts on more than is suspected with pitchers in the DL. It’s more semantics on “faking injury,” or just plain old rest. Who really knows? My money is on rest … speaking for all of them, Keuchel, Morton, LMJ. Keep in mind the start that Fiers was skipped over in Spring Training. There was absolutely nothing wrong with him (and he said as much), dutifully allowing Martes, I believe or maybe Peacock (I forget) to show their stuff. In retrospect, given the tandem approach at lower levels, we have to figure out ways to pass around innings. That’s written on everything Hinch has said.

        Not saying it’s not possible, but given the language from McCullers about the Stros not making a move, and the SP holding their own through April, I still question all these questions of true injury.

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      • Not to mention that Fisher’s plate approach looked nothing like the high strikeout criticism so often quoted. Numbers this season tell the story that he’s turned the corner. There is such a thing as dialing it up a notch when the chips are down. I want those clutch players on the big team, and our problem is, we have too many to keep happy as everyday players. Even so, I don’t want them playing for other teams!

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      • I still believe Luhnow is going to try and find a starter close to the quality of Keuchel/McCullers. It’s not urgent today.. But I’m sure he’s working on it today.

        I do not believe the theory that Keuchel has just been resting. He got scratched just minutes before his last start. There was no need for Luhnow/Hinch to fake an injury trip to the DL by going through the trouble of sending his guy out to the pen to warm up before a game he is scheduled to pitch. Was Diaz under the stands throwing? I don’t think Keuchel would play along with such a folly.

        Sonny Gray should not be judged on one start. But should we also ignore all of 2016? I do not want to give up Martes or Paulino for him. Or Tucker or Bregman or Fisher. He could again become the premier pitcher he was from 2013 to 2015, but he’s not showing it this year either. He’s throwing like a 4th or 5th starter. Is he worth the risk?

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      • Grayson,

        LOL! No one in their right mind would value PTuck over Fisher. I was talking about his younger brother, Kyle Tucker. He has all the tools and is valued higher than Fisher.

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      • Dave,

        A couple things regarding your post. No one said they were using the DL to rest Keuchel so I am not sure why you mentioned this. I alluded to the fact that the Astros are not going to hesitate to put someone on the DL, even for the smallest of issues. It was mentioned on the Astros broadcast the other day that McCullers probably would not have gone on the DL if they were in a pennant chase in September or it was during the playoffs. However, due to the Astros sizable division lead and it only being June they didn’t hesitate to put him on the DL. This is what I was saying earlier.

        Second, Gray was injured for the majority of last year. It isn’t like Gray is on the wrong side of 30 and age is a concern. Yes, his injury history is a concern, but when healthy he is as good as it gets. I think the Astros need some depth in starting pitching, but I wouldn’t be upset if they did nothing either. However, I can assure you we aren’t getting someone like Gray for a package of Singleton, Kemp, Moran and Reed. That might get us Clayton Richard, but that is about it (I used those names as examples of guys in our farm system that fans tend to over-value because…well, we’re fans and they are in the Astros system).

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      • I blame it on old age, Tim! K and P look so much alike without readers Lol

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      • Dave was probably responding to my post, Tim re: Keuchel and rest.

        But my question to dave’s response is: hasn’t Keuchel pitched since the time he was scratched after the warmup that he visibly didn’t look well (even bloated in the face)? If Dave is so set on the idea that something is really, really wrong with Dallas, then we shall soon see. It’s just my opinion, and it will be obvious soon enough.

        I’m on record, and along the lines of Op’s post that since our starting has been on the DL, we have an excellent ERA and record.

        To Sandy’s quote that Gray isn’t worth our top prospects, let me ask this. If Gray pitched in Game 3 of the ALCS, name the pitchers on our staff (when healthy) you can say with *certainty* he’d be better than?

        I say, not one!

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      • Tim, someone did say that Keuchel was on the DL for rest.

        As far as Gray goes, if we get him, I’ll certainly be hoping for the 2013 to 2015 version. And I agree that we will not get him without giving up at least one of the guys I mentioned.

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50. After having five of their starting pitchers go on the DL this season, Astros starting pitchers have the best ERA in baseball, at 3.51, and that’s without facing a pitcher in the lineup.
    The Astros are the first team in the majors to 700 hits for the season at 702. The Astros only have struck out 502 times. Last season the Astros finished with 1367 hits and 1452 Ks.

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