May 4 2017

For the Astros in 2017, Nothing is too late

“Ah, Nothing is too late, till the tired heart shall cease to palpitate.”
― Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

Never say this blog fails to bring culture to the world. Of course our usual shots at culture are about as sophisticated as a Jack in the Box Munchie Meal, but dear Mr. Longfellow was a literary Hall of Famer. And he seems to have some words that speak directly to the Astros’ fans as we are emotionally tied to a team that seems to wait until the last minute to score and does not care if the stress of this causes its followers to have their hearts ready to cease palpitating for them.

The Astros have been the Komeback Kids this season as through Tuesday night 2/3 of their 18 wins have been of the comeback variety. Why is this necessary? Well let’s take a look at their offense by inning and compare it against the rest of the AL.

Inning Runs Rank in AL BA Rank in AL OBP Rank in AL OPS Rank in AL
1 11 8 .250 9 .304 10 .755 7
2 4 15 .196 15 .267 13 .583 13
3 11 9 .276 2 .319 6 .804 3
4 13 2 .282 1 .362 1 .789 1
5 14 6 .314 1 .383 2 .863 3
6 13 9 .194 14 .292 12 .568 13
7 22 1 .292 1 .355 2 .806 3
8 21 2 .324 2 .392 3 .896 2
9 11 6 .299 3 .342 6 .745 6
Extra 6 3 .370 3 .485 3 1.003 6
1-6 66 10 .253 5 .322 6 .731 8
7 and Later 60 1 .311 1 .377 1 .842 1
8 and Later 38 1 .322 1 .389 2 .861 1
9 and Later 17 3 .319 1 .385 2 .821 4

There is a lot of meat there, but the most important lines may be the ones that show they are ranked 10th in the league in runs scored during innings one thru six, but then are ranked 1st in runs scored from the 7th inning onward. This shows they have scored almost as many runs (60 vs. 66) in about one half the innings. Impressive.

Even more impressive are those late inning numbers – .311 BA / .377 OBP / .842 OPS – all first in the AL and the equivalent of having one of your best batters take everyone of those ABs.

So if it seems like the Astros tend to let that scoring lag to late in the game, that is because it is true.

And now if our hearts can just hold on…

 

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204 comments on “For the Astros in 2017, Nothing is too late”

  1. Dan, I was just about to post and your latest came up, so anyway MarGo says this morning he doesn’t know why the power surge; he’s just swinging with the intention of getting hits. “But if they’re homers, they’re welcome, you know?” We need coaching? Listen to the man.

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    • Hitting a baseball is one of the most difficult skills to develop. You are trying to square up a tapering cylindrical object on a sphere when the sphere is coming at you at varying speeds, varying locations and with many times late movement. Oh and you have a little more than a second to decide whether to swing, when to swing and where to swing. It’s amazing it ever works.
      MarGo and Correa (last night) are doing a better job of choosing when to swing and they are not trying to pull everything, though as Marwin showed with his grand slam and Correa showed with his double they can turn on the right pitches.
      Ok – I’ll change my tune on coaches – Hudgens for president.

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      • Dan-
        The first step is admitting it, and you’re well on your way to recover!

        Kudos for straightening out your Longfellow in the process. Any and all culture is welcome.

        One thing occurred to me after Springer got the postgame interview, as Julia asked about new speakers for Club Astros. Reddick has begun a tradition of giving a wrestling belt after every game to the most valuable player. This is what we like to call gelling on Chipalatta! Even after George ran into the dugout headed for the tunnel, he reached over and tapped the bat boy sitting on the bench. The straight-faced, serious-about-a-championship, because we’ve fallen short after coming so close attitude, but never forget the Lil guy! I love the family that we’re making here!

        Also, thanks for the stats work. It matches what my eyes have seen.

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      • Dan, just in case of misunderstanding, when I said “Listen to the man,” I meant MarGo. I don’t really know anything about Hudgens. As for Longfellow’s “Nothing is too late,” Hawking is now saying we have to get off the planet in 100 years or we’re goners, so the Astros must bring it while we’re here to watch. And “The Creature from the Black Lagoon” is on tonight.

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      • I do like people who make predictions that neither they or anyone of age will be able to see if it occurs or not. Hawking is smart, but it would be like me saying that by 2060 the Astros will have 3 championships. If I’m wrong – not much accountability.

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    • Diane, I am not one of Hawking’s fans, but I am going to take his advice and definitely get off the planet in the next 100 years.

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  2. I do think sometimes the baseball gods give me a little poke when I do one of these posts. I researched this during lunch yesterday and then wrote it last night during the game. So….
    – Of course last night is not a comeback game (though there is plenty of late inning scoring)
    – They had scored 4 runs in the second inning through the first 27 games as shown above and then of course they score 4 runs in the second inning of the 28th game
    – I am driving in this morning listening to sports talk and they talk about how Brian McTaggart tweeted out the Astros scoring by inning last night and talked about how they were now #1 in the 7th inning onward. I swear I did not steal this idea from Brian McT – I may be a Twit – but I don’t tweet.

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    • I agree with you in liking your post, Dan. Especially twit vs. tweet. I tought I saw a puddy tat somewhere in that. O shut up, Diane, the game’s about to start.

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  3. Marwin’s home run to CF last night was the first HR that the Astros hit that would not have been a HR in previous years, if I’m not mistaken.

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  4. I think the reason for the slow start in games is because the #s 1,2,4 and 6 spots in the batting order have been the weakest spots in the lineup as far as BA and OBP.
    My stats come from MLB.com.
    That means the #3 hitter is coming up with fewer runners on, but is hitting well and has been let down by the #4 hitter. The #6 spot in the order has been the worst spot, for some reason, and that has spoiled the second inning.
    More than anything, the Astros have been using the first three innings to get a lot of excellent starting pitchers to have to throw a lot of pitches and are tiring them out and pouncing on them in the middle innings, and then feasting on weaker bullpens.
    One of the two series the Astros lost was to Cleveland, who have the best ERA of any bullpen in baseball right now. The other series the Astros lost was to the Royals, and that was the KC bullpen’s only good series of the year and our bullpen’s worst series of the year.
    Hopefully, the Astros top of the order is getting their hitting problems solved so that we can score some runs early, because we will be looking at stronger bullpens than we have seen thus far.

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  5. The current stating rotation for our Fresno Grizzlies is Hauschild, Frias, Holmes, Coleman and David Martinez.
    Oh, and they don’t actually have regular rotations on their Low A, High A, or AA teams, either.

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  6. Along the fine literary theme you have set, Donne [I mean Dan], Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Jr., Charlie Morton, Mike Fiers, and Joe Musgrove are rumored to have collaborated to pen the following classic, addressed to all their late-inning heroic producing team-mates:

    No starter wins a ballgame, entire of himself.
    Every arm and bat is a piece of the victory, a card that must be played.
    If our spheroid be swept away by dingers,
    team ERA will regress – as it would with a bases-loaded-walk,
    or if a run scores because two fielders collide chasing a lazy pop-fly.
    Every un-answered run allowed diminishes us,
    because – well, those keeping score notice such things.
    And therefore never send to know for whom the late-inning bell tolls;
    It tolls for thee.

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    • Come swing with me, high OBP the runners move,
      We will some new championships prove
      Of golden trophies, pen Astros in the books,
      With Grizzly lines, and Corpus hooks.

      For Stros fans, thou need’st no such deceit,
      HTown spin rates is it’s own bait:
      That empty hope of GM’s past, not catch’d thereby,
      Alas, uncle Jeff is wiser far than I.

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  9. Not to be outdone, an anonymous team bard has penned this sonnet addressed to the 2017 Texas Rangers:

    How do we beat thee? Let me count the ways.
    We beat thee with the bat, the glove, and with runs so freely scored,
    just when thou thinketh victory is out of sight –
    in inning seven, and inning eight.

    We beat thee on both eves and days,
    you read our tweets – then take thine seats.

    We beat thee freely, as men beat snakes.
    We beat thee thoroughly, whate’er it takes.

    We beat thee with sabermetric storms;
    we beat thee with our stable of bullpen arms.

    We beat thee with Marwin, and big grand slams;
    We beat you by getting out of jams.

    We smile, we cheer, we say ‘Go ‘Stros’;
    then go beat all our other division foes.

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  10. English class was a”D” or lower for me. But I try ( no make that “yearn”) to fit in.

    Where have all the poets gone, long time passing?
    Where have all the poets gone, long time ago?
    Where have all the poets gone?
    Chipalatta picked them, every one
    Oh when will they ever learn, oh when will they ever learn?

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    • The dugout should have never allowed that to happen. Unless they’ve changed things (last time I was in Zebulon, NC, it was AA for Colorado) the home team has the 1st base dugout. Also, I suspect the umpires got scolded for allowing him to hold the ball that long.

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      • Our guy got thrown out, yeah. You could see Tucker was aware something was up but thought pitcher has straddled, or close to it.

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  13. So, I think there are predictions in order at this moment about what kind of Musgrove outing we will get?

    Bill Devin Op Daveb and gals
    6 IP
    8 H
    3 R

    Overs/unders

    I think we’ll beat their best pitcher. Hard.

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    • The Rangers are close to imploding….
      6 IP
      4 H
      1 R
      And the Rangers go head hunting – hit 2 of our guys and would do more but we let McCullers do his in between starts session right after they hit our guys.

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    • It’s tough to get a 4 game sweep on anyone. I’ve probably cursed Musgrove with expectations that are too high at this point. I still think he has what it takes, but he’s going to take his lumps from time to time.

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  14. I posted a photo on Twitter. We are playing #baseballhookie today at MMP. It’s May and the boys have had a good year in school. They deserve a day off to watch their favorite baseball team.

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  16. Well, the good news is that this guy has used 58 pitches to get 6 outs. We can’t expect to come back everyday, but we will get into their crappy pen early. Still optimistic, as long as we stop giving them more runs.

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    • How this game turns out is not nearly as important to me as how Joe Musgrove turns out. These atrocious beginnings are getting to be a habit for him. His pitches are staying up in the zone and catching way too much of the plate, and his ERA and WHIP are soaring. Meanwhile his confidence seems to be leaking out of him like a sieve.

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  18. Oh Lord……sorry OP, but we are not going to win games when Peacock comes in. A hit, a walk, a wild pitch, and a balk. ((((JEEZE)))).

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    • Peacock has been good more times than he has struggled, but this was not a real good way to hold the fort while the offense slowly wakes up…. again

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      • I know he came out pitching poorly this time – but coming into the game he was 2-0 and had only given up 4 hits in 11.1 innings with 18 K’s. He has been good most of the time this year.

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  22. This has been a fun week, until today. We can’t expect to get in a hole and have the pen keep it close every time out. And our bats looked a bit weary today. They sure had opportunities too.

    But the elephant in the room remains our rotation. That in turn exposes the weaknesses in the pen ultimately.

    So while we should be pleased anytime we take 3 of 4 from anyone, especially the Rangers, there are indeed things to talk about.

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  25. Here’s a number that will stick in your craw….*16* left on base. GOOD LORD….this team had every chance to pull ahead …ALL. DAY. LONG. 7 out of 8 innings their pitchers walked the lead off hitter. BIG error by Bregman, and ta-da *situational hitting* bites them in the butt. Not a good game for our local 9 today, WAY too many chances to do damage, they didn’t deserve to win this game.

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  28. As I stated above we were at the game today. I am not discouraged in the least. 16 LOB means we were putting men on bases. Yes, we failed to get them in most of the time, but never did I feel we were out of it until the Rangers scored 3 runs of Gregerson in the 8th inning. I feel very comfortable with this offense. Now, the pitching concerns me primarily because, due to injuries, we have very little depth. McHugh, Paulino and Rodgers are all out. I like the bullpen the way it is so I would prefer to not move someone from the bullpen to the rotation, but if things don’t improve that might be our only option.

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      • It’s so hard to say as it is still early in the season, but I still think Quintana will be available. Rick Hahn was on MLB Network Radio on Wednesday and said this fast start does not change their plans on the rebuild. The fact he used the word ‘rebuild’ was surprising as most GMs don’t use that word, but he was not shy in admitting what they are doing. If the Bluejays are out of it at the deadline maybe Happ, if he’s healthy, and Estrada could be options. I mentioned Teheran of the Braves and Ervin Santana of the Twins if both those teams are out of the race. There will be pitching available, but it will come down to what price the Astros want to pay.

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      • Kevin, it will be hard to get much for guys we really don’t need. It’s going to have to hurt more.

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      • Well we don’t need them someone else might , they are not garbage. I would thorw in anyone AA above, and untouchable to me Tucker and Run Forest run for a solid 2 or 3 SP.

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      • Reed has value, but the rest if those players have very little value. I think the Astros would package Reed and Martes. This could get them a solid #3, but it probably won’t get Quintana. If they can acquire a solid pitcher without including KTuck I would be happy.

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    • Right, Sandy. As for Altuve, it shouldn’t be surprising that other teams have been doing their homework on the batting champion. They’re making it harder for him and now he will to have to work around their workaround.

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  30. Their record was unsustainable.
    Their BA with RISP was unsustainable.
    This game was due and the Astros still had tons of chances to win it.
    The bullpen couldn’t stay perfect because it’s not a perfect bullpen.
    Gregerson goes through a funk every year. It’s not a surprise because he is all screwed up from the WBC. His performance now is why other teams don’t want their pitchers pitching in the WBC.
    The Astros pitching staff has performed better than anyone expected them to.
    The Astros have been on a pace like the 2016 Cubs and we are not as good as that team was, so yesterday was a baseball day with a loss.
    What this team needs to do is win series after series and that starts all over tonight.
    This team is going to lose games. What we want is for the veterans to keep the team from going into a funk and blowing the lead they have built.

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  31. We have a .750 winning percentage so far in May. Let’s go out and earn .800 tonight – then we can take it from there.

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  32. Curious what Tim and others saw at the game. It appeared to me that Gregerson was starting his slider too high in the zone and it stayed in the zone for the entire pitch. He is normally effective with a pitch in the dirt. Musgrove was not effective on the curves, sliders, etc so they were just sitting on his fastball.

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  33. Looking at Astros Leaderboards Fangraphs, Marwin Gonzalez leads the team in WAR at 1.0., and that includes Keuchel, who is at .8 WAR.
    Jose Altuve’s season continues to be a mystery:
    His slash line at home is .236/.282/.347/.629. His road slash is .441/.558/.706/1.264
    His BA against lefties is 67 points lower than against righties.
    Again, I doubt Jose had normal preparation this spring, because we are not seeing the normal Jose.

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    • One thing is for certain. Altuve will hit lefties and things will even out. Maybe he’s been trying to to a bit too much in front of the home crowd?

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      • He hit rightys better than leftys last year which is the opposite of his career trend – no idea why

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  34. Who did the Astros hack off in the MLB scheduling department:
    – Finish series in Houston yesterday
    – 3 games against Angels in Los Angeles/Anaheim
    – 2 games against Braves in Houston
    – 4 games against Yanks in NYC
    – 3 games against Marlins in Miami
    – Back to Houston for homestand
    12 games and about 7000 miles or so

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    • It’s a tough little stretch after an emotional series. Good thing they would have gotten into LA at a reasonable hour yesterday. Need a win from our ace to put things back on track.

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  37. Think Gregersen is not telling anyone he’s hurt???? I don’t think his appearance in the WBC could still be an issue…..but what do I know, I’m just a girl!! Just thinking outloud!! McHugh is scheduled to throw off flat ground tomorrow and he’s traveling with the club on all the away games starting yesterday. Man….do we need that guy back, A.S.A.P.!!!

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    • We might actually be saying the same thing. If he is hurt, I’m betting that his lack of normal preparation and his WBC appearances could be the cause of his injury, or the cause of his lack of sharpness.
      All of his pitches show the same velocities as last year, but all three have negative values. Either he has lost his command of them, or they aren’t moving, or he misses his catcher, or all three.

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  38. I couldn’t remember this kids name last week when we were talking about this year’s draft. His name is Alex Lane RHP pitcher out of LSU, and he currently sits at #32 on the list. Google him…..eye popping stats! I’m sure Bregman can enlighten Luhnow on this guys stuff. I don’t think I’ve ever seen soo many pitchers in one draft. The Romero kid from Houston, just cr*pped on his chances of getting sighned, unless your organization wants to take on a trouble maker. Thanks OP for the link!

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    • Yeah…….I had been wondering that myself. There was a good deal of calling one another out on this blog a few months ago……maybe she decided it wasn’t worth it anymore. BUT….we sure would LOVE to have you back Nance. Becky👵

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  40. I see Dayan Diaz is getting called up. Know nothing about him but saw a WBC game that he pitched. Every thing he threw had a wrinkle. Felix on emergency family leave.

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  41. Feliz has gone out on temporary family emergency leave. Dayan Diaz has been called up to fill in while he’s out.

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  43. Funny true story – we were over at my father-in-law’s house yesterday. He is quite elderly and his hearing is fading.
    Anyways he watched the Astros game and saw them lose. My brother-in-law who had recorded the game stopped by and when he walked up to our dad-in-law and told him to not tell him the score – whereby he immediately told him to the score. My bro-in-law goes “Why?” “I thought you asked me what the score was.”
    Lol

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  44. Thought this was funny…..the idiots we just beat 3 out of 4 games don’t like Reddick’S fans yelling “WOO” when we are playing them! That’s what wrestling fans yell at matches! So….let’s yell REALLY LOUD the next time we play them!!
    WOOOOOOOOO!!

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  49. Giles hasn’t pitched since Monday. ….and it shows. That is a damn shame because Keuchel pitched soo well tonight. DAM-IT.

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