Astros’ preview: The season we’ve all been waiting for?

Today Dan looks at the Astros themselves as they ready themselves for the first series of the season against the Seattle Mariners.

2016 Record. 84-78 – 3rd place in AL West – 11 GB of the Rangers

Last Playoff Appearance. 2015

World Series Appearances/Wins.  0 for 1 – 2005

Best Franchise Season. 102-60 in 1998

Worst Franchise Season. 51-111 in 2013

Manager.  A.J. Hinch – Entering his 3rd season with the Astros (170-154)

GM. Jeff Luhnow –  In his sixth season

2016 Payroll (from spotrac). $114.7 million (21st in MLB).

2017 Payroll (projected by spotrac). $123.2 million (18th).

2016 Offense. 724 Runs (8th in AL),  198 HRs (9th),  102 SB (3rd), . 247 BA (13th), .735 OPS (9th)

2016 Starting Pitching.  4.37 ERA (8th),  1.38 WHIP (10th),  300 BBs (10th), 779 Ks (8th), .271 BAA (12th),  .775 OPS against (11th)

2016 Bullpen.  3.56 ERA (T-5th),  1.14 WHIP (1st),  Saves 44 (6th),  Blown Saves 20 (6th worst), .230  BA against (2nd)  .672 OPS against (1st)

The Astros had a middle of the road offense in 2016 and pairing that with a starting rotation that had sunk from excellent to mediocre and a very good bullpen, they pulled off a fairly predictable slightly above average season on the field.

On the offensive side they are depending on more ABs from 1B Yulieski Gurriel and 3B Alex Bregman, who both joined towards the end of the season, plus solid contributions from veteran professional hitters in DH Carlos Beltran, C Brian McCann, RF Josh Reddick and LF Nori Aoki to bring that offense up from middle of the road to top 5 in the league.

The starting pitching is relying on a return to health of 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr, a lot more of the flashes that Joseph Musgrove showed in his 10 starts last season and a bolt of lightning out of nowhere for new free agent Charlie Morton.

The Astros would like the bullpen to get off to a better start in 2016 and to move more of those blown saves into the successful save column. Oh and if they could find anyone who could pitch successfully from the left side in the ‘pen, that would be appreciated.

Infield. The Astros 2016 first base was a lot of Marwin Gonzalez sandwiched between unsuccessful debuts for Tyler White and A.J. Reed and resulted in one of the weaker combined 1Bs in the AL. The Astros will put Gurriel at 1B with MarGo as his backup in the hopes that he will bring a much more solid bat to the sack, if not a whole lot of power. Next up behind him could be Reed, White or even Colin Moran. 2B and SS are of course set with near MVP Jose Altuve and boy wonder Carlos Correa. If Altuve repeats his excellent 2016 (.338 BA/.928 OPS/ 108 R/ 24 HR/ 96 RBI/ 30 SB) and Correa has the breakout season expected of him (yes some insane folks complain about 22 y.o. SS with a .274 BA/.811 OPS/ 20 HR/ 96 RBI season), this will be the best hitting middle infield in the game. Bregman has been given the 3B spot based on a rookie performance that went from hopeless (2 for his first 38 ABS) to strong – (.312 BA, 30 R, 8 HR, 34 RBIs in his next 39 games). If he falters, Gurriel, J.D. Davis or Moran could be put at third base.

Outfield. Despite a solid season from George Springer (116 R / 29 HR/ 82 RBI), the Astros outfield was problematic with crummy offensive performances in CF (.210 BA /.625 OPS) and RF (.227 BA / .649 OPS). The Astros are addressing this by moving Springer to CF and bringing in Reddick (.281 / .749 in 2016) for RF and Aoki (.283 /.738 in 2016) for LF. They will all be backed up by super-D, sucky-O Jake Marisnick. There are some other options a phone call away, including Teoscar Hernandez and Tony Kemp who both debuted in 2016 and Derrick Fisher, who impressed in this season’s spring training. A big question is how many games will Carlos Beltran spend in LF.

DH and C. The 2016 Astros continued a tradition of just awful DH offense – coming in last in BA (.223) /OPS (.696)/HR (19) and RBIs (62) in the AL. The Astros are counting on elderly All Star Carlos Beltran (.295 BA/.850 OPS/ 29 HR/ 73 RBIs) to beat that with his eyes closed. It is expected that Evan Gattis will get some time at DH, along with many of the other starters on their days off.

Brian McCann brings veteran leadership and a bigger bat than Jason Castro showed to the catcher’s spot. It is probable that McCann will get 5 starts to every one by Gattis behind the plate. The question here is what effect this will have on Gattis whose bat came alive last season when he spent more games behind the plate.

The Bench. With 13 pitchers on the roster to start the season, the bench is small. They will start the season with backup C Gattis, Swiss Army knife Gonzalez and OF Marisnick in the dugout. It will be interesting if anyone in the minors will force the Astros’ hand some time during the season to make additional room on the roster.

Starting Rotation.  The bottom line with the pitching staff is that if they get a repeat of 2016 out of Keuchel (9-12, 4.55 ERA), McCullers (only 14 starts), Morton (only 4 starts), they are dead on arrival. They need at least 2 of the 3 to be very good starting pitchers this season. It is worrisome that Collin McHugh is starting the season on the DL,  but at least he has not been hiding his injury as Keuchel did last season. Joseph Musgrove has looked good in both his short stint in 2016 (4-4, 4.06 ERA) and a strong showing this spring. Mike Fiers is a middle of the road pitcher (11-8, 4.48 ERA) who would be just fine in the 5th spot or as a swing pitcher or even as a trade chip. Young arms that may be next in line include Chris Devenski (2.16 ERA/ 0.912 WHIP in 108 IP), Michael Feliz (8-1, 13.2 K/9 IP), and 21 y.o. phenom Francis Martes.

The ‘Pen. In 2016, the A.J. Hinch passed the closing baton between hot hands (or was it that he pried the baton out of cold hands), over and over as Ken Giles (15 Sv), Luke Gregerson (15 Sv) and Will Harris (12 Sv) all had extended shots at the 9th inning. The Astro would like Giles and his 14 K/9 IP arm to take this job, but his propensity to give up walks, hits and HRs at the wrong time has been raising the Rolaids quotient for the manager. Gregerson looked brilliant during the recent World Baseball Classic as their closer, but he looks great often except when he doesn’t. This baton may get handed about a lot more before it gets settled. Devenski, Feliz and Brad Peacock give the Astros a lot of flexibility in the ‘pen as they all can go multiple innings as needed. Tony Sipp is on the team because he is left handed and because his awful performance in 2016 (4.95 ERA, 1.603 ERA) and big contract ($12 million for 2017 and 2018) make him untradeable, yet difficult to release. Young big armed Jandel Gustave nudged out James Hoyt for the last spot in the bullpen. It is a good guess that Hoyt will be up some time during 2017.

Prognosis. This is potentially a very good lineup that unlike 2016 can turn itself over and give the top of the lineup a lot more ducks on the pond to bring home. The bullpen looks as good if not better than in 2016, which brings us to the critical part of the team, the rotation. It says here that the Astros only need two of Morton, Keuchel and LMJ to have big returns to thrive in 2017. If two or three of those guys falter or get injured it will be a long season or it will be a season remembered for trading away big time prospects for an arm.

Projection: 92-70 – The Astros will have a better season and return to the playoffs in 2017. Once in the playoffs….anything can happen.

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170 responses to “Astros’ preview: The season we’ve all been waiting for?”

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  1. Dan, I read your column three times before I noticed you used a “?” to end the title. If the Astros hit the 92 win mark, they are 3 games away from last year not making the playoffs. So this team SHOULD be improved but has the potential to really disappoint. If they win less than 90 games, Hinch is probably gone because someone has to be held accountable. 90+ wins and an early exit will raise the hopes for “next year.” Let’s hope we get off to a great start and never look back. To borrow from George Allen, “the future is now.”

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  2. I think we all expect a stronger offense. I look for the pen to be just as good, hopefully with the addition of a solid lefthander at some point. I have no clue as to what the rotation will do, although if I had to guess, I’d say similar to last year, which is not so bad, especially if we pick up a top of rotation guy for the second half of the season. I want this club to have a record that wins the division. That is somewhere more than 90 wins. Might take 95. I think I will understand much better where this club is going after a month of play.

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  3. If every player in the Astros starting lineup hit 15 points lower than they did in 2016, that would still be an average 13 points higher than the Astros team hit last year.
    Last year, amongst pitchers who had enough innings to to qualify, the Astros had 4 starters in the bottom 40 in FIP and WAR. They were(in order of badness) Fister, Fiers, McHugh and Keuchel.
    This year the Astros are healthy in the pitching dept, which they weren’t last year.
    Not having a decent lefty in the pen puts us in the exact same position as last year, so we’re actually better off, because at least we realize now how bad Sipp can be, whereas last year we kept expecting him to get better.
    To me, a big difference in this team could be if Charlie Morton can pitch like he did early last season and this spring. All of the Astros starting pitchers were good in spring training this year.
    Watching the Astros in spring training was an eye opener in how much better this lineup could be without all the strikeouts in the 5-9 positions. Guys who project to be in the 5-9 slots this year got runners in from third base, something the Astros were lousy at last year.
    Finally, the Astros were out of the chase by the time Musgrove, Bregman and Gurriel showed up last year. Now, they’ve added Beltran, Reddick, Aoki, McCann and Morton to that mix, all of them veteran players.
    I really like this team.
    I think the only things that could screw them up is A.J. Hinch and Ken Giles. I like Giles’s talent a lot more than I like Hinch’s.
    Finally, the Astros could be looking at this guy: http://climbingtalshill.com/2017/04/01/astros-scouted-cuban-outfielder-luis-robert-with-private-workout-next-week/
    From what I have read about him, he could instantly become the Astros top prospect if they were to sign him. His ceiling is supposed to be as the best baseball prospect in the world. And, supposedly, the White Sox like him, also. That’s the White Sox team that has a starting pitcher they would like to trade.

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  4. Let’s see …
    ac45 – in the interest of full disclosure, the title of this post was composed by Chip, though I heartily endorse his words and the question mark.
    daveb – My gut tells me that the Rangers won’t repeat last year’s statistical miracle of winning so many games while barely outscoring the opposition, the Angels and A’s won’t contend and that the M’s will be better but not that much better – so I feel like 92 wins could get it done. (Though every year I’m completely wrong on predictions).
    op – I don’t like Hinch’s lineups too much – though putting Springer at the top is not so bad if the bottom of the lineup gets on base like I expect it to. I hope he does not stick with Giles if he is not getting it done – we got in a deep hole quick in 2016 with that thought process assisting in the digging….

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  5. Dan, I just don’t want to have to rely on the other clubs not to win more games than they should or we think they might. I want a division win and a rested rotation lined up to go deep into the post season. That’s my expectation for 2017.

    And that Cub club will not sit still either. If they’re missing a link, they will find a fix.

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  6. What we need to avoid to win the West in 2017:

    Offensively, we need to avoid:
    1. settling into a recognizable first-second-third pitch swing-no swing pattern;
    2. wasting offensive opportunities [low BA/OBP with runners on base];
    3. failing to get at least one run home 50 or more % of the time we get a man to second with less than 2 outs;
    4. failing to get at least one run home 80 or more % of the time we get a man to third with less than 2 outs;
    5. getting picked off of any base;
    6. baserunning gaffes;
    7. arguing balls and strikes – and getting thrown out of games;
    8. failing to adjust and seek contact with two strike counts;
    9. letting Jake Marisnick start more than 5 games;
    10. letting Marwin Gonzales start more than 20 games.
    11. Using a catcher as our DH;
    12. failing to exploit and punish the shifts employed against us.

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    • I agree with most of what you are saying. However, if the Astros get the run home from 3rd 80% of the time with less than 2 outs they would break a major league record by a longshot. That is probably not sustainable, but as long as they do it at the average of the other major league teams I think they’ll be fine.

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  7. What we need to avoid to win the West in 2017:

    From a pitching standpoint we need to avoid:

    1. 1-0 and 2-0 counts;
    2. walks and three-ball counts – especially with less than 2 out;
    3. pitcher fielding/throwing errors including slow cover/no cover lapses];
    4. wild pitches with men on base [see 1 and 2 above];
    5. ignoring baserunners;
    6. losing temper/cool over ball-strike calls;
    7. failing to put away opposing hitters with two-strike counts;
    8. throwing 0-2 or 1-2 pitches in the middle of the plate and/or vertical zone;
    9. failing to keep breaking pitches and change-ups on or just outside the black;
    10. being two proud to IBB guys who have been a. hot; and b. killing us.

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  8. Only problem that concerns me with Morton, is can he start at LEAST 20 games.
    For all intents and purposes he didn’t pitch at ALL last year. Troubling especially if McCullers goes south, and McHugh turns into his 2014 self.

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  9. My answer to the title question: yes. Resoundingly. Very fair assessment, Dan, but I’ve already expressed the thought that this lineup is going to feed on itself and really ratchet up the offensive production. And I’m reasonably confident in the pitching. I think Keuchel will bounce back to at least 2014 level, LMJ will step up and Morton will be lightning in a bottle. In fact, McHugh’s issues may be a blessing in disguise: a 30-yr old pitcher with a “dead arm” who has noticeably regressed the last 2 seasons. Think the Astros made any of these points in arbitration? Sounds to me like a spot to bring up one of the youngsters.

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  10. If the starting rotation stays healthy and if Hinch keeps Sipp locked up somewhere I think we have a shot at the division. Like Dave, I want the division, not just make the playoffs.

    Hopefully a much better offense takes some pressure off Keuchel and McClullers, Morton can stay healthy, and Fiers can win 50% of the time. I think Musgrove will be fine.

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  13. I see the Padres released Brett Wallace because he can’t hit or field. Proving once again that I know nothing about baseball. Never saw a better hitter making solid contact with air like Wallace.

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  14. I’m also a bit concerned about Giles. He started showing signs late in spring training of last April’s Giles. Nothing can demoralize a team more than a blown save in the 9th inning. If I’m Hinch I have a very short leash with Giles as the Astros can ill afford another rough April like 2016.

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  15. First task: score runs early and often against Felix Hernandez, while DK and crew keep guys like Dyson, Segura, Cano, Cruz, Seager and Hanigan swinging at the air in disbelief. Everybody’s got a job to do. Let’s get it done.

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  16. It’s all about pressure – can we handle it? Last year, Stros were young and this year the core has been thru the baptism of fire, met up with wily vets who’ve been there and done that! Even if we have another abysmal April (I don’t see it happening), this team has the maturity to absorb it.

    Keep in mind, the motto is not “this is gonna be a cakewalk and nothing but a crown is successful”. We aren’t sneaking up on anybody. We’ll have to earn every single victory.

    Yesterday, after incredible pitching by Bumgarner (and hitting OMG!) and Lester, the DBax and Cards found a way in the last frame. This ain’t gonna be easy!!

    I’m encouraged by our starters and pen.

    It’s the hitting of Correa and Gurriel (who I expect to breakout) that will be the tipping points, I think. Everyone else we sort of see their floor and ceiling – those two have ceilings we can only fathom..

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  17. Dan, something that hit me while reading your post yesterday was that our old Chipalatta mantra – add/find one to two pieces each year has been blown up. Look at the guys you mention – Correa, Springer, and Altuve are the holdovers from opening day last year. Our starting linup on 4/5/16:
    Altuve
    Springer
    Correa
    Rasmus
    Gomez
    Valbuena
    Tucker
    Marwin
    Castro

    Granted, Gattis was recovering from hernia surgery and Marwin is back to the bench (hopefully), but we’ve replaced 6 spots in that lineup in less than a year!

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    • I think the amazing thing about that lineup is how poorly Rasmus, Gomez, Valbuena Tucker and Castro hit, especially early in the year. They were horrible, and yet, they did not project to be that horrible.
      Heaven help us if the reasons for their failure at the plate is still with this team.

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      • What’s even more amazing is that the Astros still managed to win 84 games despite so many black holes in the lineup and injuries for 2+ months to their top 2 starting pitchers. This team is much better equipped, and much deeper, to absorb injuries or some slumps.

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  19. I would hope that if Hudgens is spooning crap to these vets that they will ignore him.
    I sure don’t want to see his “philosophy” undoing any of these solid hitters.

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  20. I’ll go on record: I don’t see it happening for us. I hope I am wrong and will be happy to eat crow or any other bird you want to flip at me.

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    • You don’t see us winning the World Series or you don’t see us even winning the division (of course, if it is the latter then the former probably applies as well)?

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      • Don’t see the division and don’t see us sneaking in. Sorry, I know it’s negative. Just put the best possible spin on it and call me a jinx jouster.

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    • Chin up – Diane. The way I look at this is as follows:
      – Good bullpen in 2016 is a good bullpen in 2017.
      – Gurriel for a whole year + Bregman for a whole year + Beltran + Reddick + McCann + Aoki is much better than Gomez + Rasmus + a lot of MarGo + Castro + Valbuena (who was good but got hurt after starting bad) + Reed + White + Teoscar….
      – 2017 starting pitching will be better than 2016 starting pitching if…they can have less than 90 games started by pitchers with 4.48 ERA’s or higher. I think that is quite doable.

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    • I believe they have a good chance to win the division. Don’t see them winning the series though. This rotation would have to really excel.

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  21. I am an optimist. I look at the lineup and see a good, great, or decent hitter at every spot, unless Marisnick is in there.
    Having kept up with the Astros throughout the spring, I have seen the Astros rotation get other team’s regular lineups out, while our regulars were getting rested or playing for their countries somewhere else. When our pitching got hit, it was usually a guy we are not relying on, with the exception of Sipp as a reliever or Peacock as a starter.
    I think the Astros players are ready to contend and their manager will, hopefully, make me look foolish for doubting him.
    I blame him and the coaching staff for not having the team ready to play last season and hope they are better this April.

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    • Op, the problem with Peacock’s Spring was the Nats and no one else, if I recall…starter reliever, not sure that’s the issue?

      Also, it’s been noted from owner and president to mgr alike, last Spring’s travel schedule was a killer. They threw just a *little money at it to accommodate a smoother transition from exhibition to today!

      It’s finally upon us😄

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  22. I’ll be leaving Round Rock around 1:30 PM heading to Houston for opening day. My youngest son and father-in-law will be joining me (baseball practice got in the way of my oldest son joining us). We will be in section 155 and I couldn’t be more excited. Let’s go Astros!

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  24. i dont get to watch the games due to being at work and roots sports lousy distribution, so i am asking you guys such as op, daveb, gov, devin , sandy, diane et al to let us know what you see. and of course dan and chip. im especially interested in tim’s account since he will be at the game. Thanks in advance.
    rj

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    • I get Root but just found out I have to work late tonight. Maybe not too, too. Also, if I don’t watch, I’m pretty sure they’ll do better, if history is any indication.

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  25. Villar was a tough guy to watch. But it was clear that he had talent. He’s an excellent athlete. And once given the chance, he proved to be any everyday player. I think he would have made a quality left fielder on this club. An .800 OPS does not grow on trees.

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    • D7, I agree until I remember how he made the difficult plays look easy, and the easy ones were errors. I hope he does well, but he was a head case while playing here.

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      • 45, I wonder if we helped make him a head case. He had a serviceable .6 DWAR at short last year, same as Correa for instance. And he led all of MLB in range factor at short. All of MLB. And yes, he did make 17 errors there, 29 overall. But darn, those offensive numbers sure were impressive. He had provided hints of that ability prior to leaving Houston. I just watched Carlos Gomez crush a homer. He’s a totally different hitter than the guy we endured in Houston for a year and a half. Why?

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  27. Here we go…got Root Sports on and about to enjoy the hell out some baseball.

    We’ll take 2 out of 3 from the Mariners, and that 1 lost will say more about the Mariners than the Astros.

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  29. rj
    got home late but saw correa’s solo homer. saw 5th inning “triple play” in the outfield with 3 of our guys scrambling for same ball and one came up with it,
    saw Altuve get his hit, saw Alex Bregman get driven in, score now 3-0. Keuchel
    looking pretty good and if I got stuff wrong forgive me I’m tired.

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  31. I hate seeing the whole outfield moved around when Marisnick comes in. It might be analytically supportable, but there is so small a centerfield sample on Springer, that I think the move could be counterproductive in the long run. How many starting center fielders in the game get moved over?

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  34. Solid win – great start by Keuchel hitting his spots. Dingers by Correa and Springer and situational RBI by CC. Very good fielding – Gregerson got a little lucky – Giles slammed the door.

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  36. Infield defense looked good. Gurriel better than advertised. Keuchel’s fielding and ability to hold runners makes him better.
    Their ace pitches well and we beat him and have only six Ks.
    Giles looked nervous and got the job done anyway.
    Umpired seemed to give Keuchel the low strike zone, making the Mariners swing at the low pitches. Lots of downward movement on Keuchel’s pitches.
    Reddick and Aoki both 1 for 3.
    Rangers blow a late lead and lose. Gomez was their leadoff hitter. Odor hit 2 HRs off Kluber.
    Villar struck out 3 times and had a throwing error today.
    Gregerson challenged Cano with a 3-1 fastball and Cano hit a rope to Springer in RF for the biggest out of the game in the 8th inning with two on.
    Tomorrow we have someone pitching for us that we didn’t have last April. Go, LMJ, go!

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  37. Gotta admit…..Gregersen made me VERY nervous tonight! Giles….not so much.
    Felix Hernandez must HATE pitching in Minute Maid! These dudes are going to have to get McCullers more than 3 runs tomorrow!

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  38. Excellent start. Let’s stay hungry, and earn it. Tonight is Beltran, Gurriel, McCann-tis, and McCullers’ turn.

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  39. Keuchel’s game management was solid, always in control – love watching McCann run off the field before the ump could even ring the guy up. And Dallas just standing there, no frills, all business. Flashing that Gold Glove, he made two plays that were bang bang!

    And the tone setter, Springer? The bomb that Correa hit was awe inspiring. Hinch put all the right guys in, I wasn’t worried a bit by pitching. Cano tattoo’d that ball but how good have we been with positioning?

    I forget which left handed hitter grounded out to Altuve … playing on the SS side of 2B! WHAT IS THAT?! It’s unbelievable is what.. (fastball command). Our defense, I just don’t care where you put a guy and neither does he. These guys all have great instincts – in football we say he’s got “a nose for the ball.”

    Last year, it just didn’t seem like Correa could shoulder the hype. This year, with some of the bigger pundits saying he could be MVP, maybe Beltran helping to encourage, he looks like he’s ready to own that.

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    • Last year Correa was getting tied up on inside fastballs. That bomb may strike prevent some pitchers from trying to hit that inside corner too often.

      On MLB network during the Dodgers-Padres broadcast they mentioned that none of the top ten teams in shifting made the 2016 playoffs. They noted the Cubs were #8 in 2015, but did not shift much in 2016. This came after the Padres (going for 162 losses I think) put all four infielders on the right side against the Dodgers’ leadoff guy…who simply slapped a ball to the SS positon with an inside out swing for an easy single. Brilliant!

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      • Hit ’em where they ain’t, boys!

        -Annie Savoy
        (Bull Durham)

        The key to the shift is pitching to location. Most of those shift busting hits Headley had, though, vs the Rays Sunday were just nice pieces of hitting.

        Glanville was talking about Keirmaier’s skillful ability to shade toward where the ball will be hit without giving it away, where the pitch will be served. Statcast takes into account after the ball leaves pitchers hands – think of how quick that means your first step has to be!

        In reality, Devin (going back to your Rays query and I thought your point was how Marisnick is off charts as only one to make both lists etc), there has to be a a good amount of luck meeting preparing involved. What is our team defense on batted balls end of season to find out true effectiveness of this coordination of pitching to contact/fielders. What stat do you think best defines whether the shift is working, or not? I can’t think of just one, and especially if pitching accuracy isn’t accounted for..

        However, it’s revealed as a Master Plan when you have guys playing way out of position and balls hit directly to them. When it doesn’t work, it’s a bad team anyway? Too.

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      • Gov, I am just being a smarty pants, but though I never saw him play in the late 1800’s, Wee Willie Keepler was quoted as saying, “Keep your eye on the ball, and him ’em where they ain’t.”

        1OP might have been his bat boy.

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      • You know, Gov, I think that stat is a custom/composite evaluation that’s not immediately evident in the numbers that are freely available. You have to know intention of the pitcher and whether the defense positioned themselves correctly. Even then, it’s tough to evaluate some plays. If Correa makes a routing play on the 2B side of the bag, but it’s a play that Altuve would make when positioned normally…how do you score it in our evaluation? Likewise, if the CF and RF are both capable of catching a pop-fly should we credit the excellent positioning of the CF who will take charge and call the ball?

        Where I would lean is evaluating the number of hitters that reached base during a shift and how frequently they score v. the number of hitters reaching base against normally positioned fielders and how often they end up scoring. I’d also compare the numbers by inning and lead/deficit to try to predict when a shift will increase/decrease our odds of winning (based on assumption hitter will do what we want a predictable amount of time).

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      • Devin, in the preface of a great book I read in college studying for my Master’s in History, the author wrote that in order to understand the past you must know intention. That’s a brilliant analysis.

        Just like trying to assess what a guy is throwing when his intent is for the ball to go one way or another, yet how often does that happen with the infinite possibilities?

        I think another huge factor which only the eyes tell, and not the box score, is what options you’re taking away from the hitter by shifting. If you knew Shaq was going to miss free throws, well you foul him and take away the slam dunk. Likewise, the Big Papi Shift was designed to make him change what he does best.

        What’s interesting is seeing the guys who adjust, and those who get swallowed up like a vacuum.

        So, while you make a good point that a regular positioned player could’ve made the play, you’re still begging the guy to go the other way – something he’s having to get used to since the rise in shifts in successive yrs has erupted.

        Until someone proves they can go opposite (Correa), the extreme shifts per player kind of exposes a hitter for his assumed weaknesses. How long should it take a player to figure out his one-dimensional hitting needs adjustment when they put 6 guys to their pull side? Lol!

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      • Yeah, one more thing to consider, as well, is that there may be 27 outs in a game, but not all of them are of equal weight. In the fourth inning of a tied game it is much less costly for an Ortiz to go with his strength and not take a single. In the 8th inning with the same score he has to consider that fewer opportunities remain. The risk is higher, but so is the reward. Which side is more favorable calls into question who hits behind the slugger, what arms are in the bullpen and available, the speed of the hitter (will he require a pinch runner), etc.

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  40. Tim, if you have a moment to comment, what was your sense of the stadium atmosphere last night? I am curious about a lot of things, but especially what it sounded like in the stadium when Beltran was introduced and came to bat, and how agile Aoki and Gurriel looked in the field.

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  41. Why I’m happy today:
    – Keuchel going all Rembrandt on us and painting a masterpiece
    – The Arlington Rangers losing a lead and losing a 1 run game – the kind of game they won at an insane rate in 2016.
    – Defensive web gems – I did not see the whole game but saw fine plays by Keuchel, Springer, Correa and Gurriel.
    – Gurriel did a great job – Adam Everett says he has the softest hands on the club
    – As someone else pointed out – I loved Bregman’s 11 pitch walk – that can really wear out and demoralize the pitcher
    – Correa is on track for that 324 RBI season – I’m waiting for his moonshot HR to land
    – They did this against a tough lefty – they worked hard and very workmanlike for this win

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  42. I can tell you the fans are very excited about this year. I got the impression the fans are more believing this team has what it takes than simply hoping. When Springer led off with a HR the Juice Box was jumping and people all around me were high-fiving each other. It was loud and several chants of “Let’s go Astros!” broke out during the game. I think this city (and those fans outside the Houston area) are very excited about this year.

    I was very encouraged by both Keuchel and Giles. I know it’s only 1 game, but if they pitch like this (obviously, I don’t expect a shutout each time) it is going to be a very fun season.

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  43. All the talk around baseball this season concerning the Astros has been about their rotation.
    Dallas Keuchel throwing 7 innings of shutout baseball and only using 85 pitches is a big, big deal. In last season’s opener he went 7 innings, but threw 106 pitches, gave up four walks and two runs. Then he got beat by Milwaukee in his second start going only 5.2 innings and throwing 110 pitches and walking 6. By that time he was hurting and treading water.
    Keuchel shut out the Tigers in his third start and then lost 8 of his next nine decisions and the team was pretty much out of it by then.
    Lance McCullers Jr is the next guy who’s health was questioned this offseason. Tonight, we’ll see how he responds.
    Ken Giles got his first save of 2016 on May 24th.

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  44. Loving our affiliates’ outfield alignments to begin the year:

    Fresno: Derek Fisher, Teoscar Hernandez, Jon Kemmer, Andrew Aplin & Preston Tucker [Tony Kemp is there too, listed as an infielder]

    Corpus Christi: Drew Ferguson, Alejandro Garcia, Ramon Laureano

    Buis Creek: Jason Martin, Myles Straw, Kyle Tucker, & Johnny Sewald

    Quad Cities: Carmen Benedeti, Daz Cameron, Ronnie Dawson, and Stephen Wrenn.

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  45. Early vindication for the brilliance of standing pat?!

    Bob Nightengale‏
    Jose Quintana did not give up his 3rd HR of the season last year until June 11, in his 13th start; He has given up 3 homers in 4 IP today.

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      • Yes, because losing to Verlander and the Tigers is going to negate your entire career, especially after listening to every baseball writer on the planet talk about your pending trade for the last six months.
        There is so much good to talk about the Astros and Quintana has been a good pitcher for years.
        If one has to talk creepy about someone, how about that Padre GM who came from the Rangers? Goodness, what a nightmare he is!

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  47. Mark Simon‏

    Catchers who had best Opening Day getting extra strikes
    Tucker Barnhart
    Stephen Vogt
    Tyler Flowers
    Buster Posey
    Yasmani Grandal
    Brian McCann

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  48. Hoping for a big night from Evan Gattis. If we are going to ‘burn’ our back-up catcher as a DH for no good reason, he had sure better produce big-time results.

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    • Gattis in place of Aoki [.276/.340/.720 vs. righties in last three years] tonight vs. a righty.

      Marisnick in place of Aoki [.313/.380/.743 vs. lefties in last three years] tomorrow vs. a lefty.

      This feels like when we were kids, and cocky, and would offer to ‘spot’ someone we considered to be an over-matched opponent 10 or 15 yards in a 100 yard race.

      I somehow doubt that the Mariners will be kind enough to reciprocate the favor. LMJ and Mr. Saltman, we sure are hoping you are on top of your game!

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      • Of course, the possibility is that tomorrow night the odd-man out against the lefty, Paxton, will be Josh Reddick instead of Nori Aoki. Reddick has been atrocious against lefties over the past three years [.202/.265/.534, with a strikeout rate of about 15%], while Marisnick has only been meh [.233/.282/.692, with a strikeout rate of over 25%].

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  50. Looks like Seattle has decided to pitch Altuve down and away almost exclusively. As long as he keeps going after that stuff, that’s all he’s going to see.

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