Back when my wife was a bit of a rebellious teenager, she used to have a conversation with her father that went something like this. “Don’t be worried about me, Dad.” Her dad would reply, “I’m not worried, I’m concerned.”
In some ways this ties to the feelings about the Houston Astros rotation this season. There are obvious elephants in the room (and no, this is not related to J.D. Davis‘ feelings about Alex Bregman) and most fans waver between concern and all out worry on these items.
Worry/Concern #1 – The health of Collin McHugh. Though his career arc has been on a downward slide – from an excellent 2014 to a solid 2015 to a mediocre 2016 – he still has 43 wins in those three seasons, which is two more than his bearded Cy-Kick Dallas Keuchel. He has had shoulder soreness this spring. He is throwing finally, but is likely headed to the DL to start the season and after what happened with Keuchel last season, it is likely the team will go slow with him.
Worry/Concern #2 – Can Lance McCullers Jr. be dominant and healthy for a whole season. He has put up two matching 3.22 ERAs in his first two seasons in the majors and is striking out more than 10 hitters per 9 innings. But Lance and his high heat and devastating curve ball started the 2016 season injured and only lasted 82 innings before missing the rest of the season. He has been working on a delivery change to take the strain off his arm. Can he cut down on pitch counts and base runners (a bad 1.543 WHIP in 2016) and nurse his arm all the way through 2017?
Worry/Concern #3 – Will the 2015 or even the 2014 Dallas Keuchel return? You know the story – he lied about his injury and struggled through a bad 2016 after a very good 2014 and a supreme 2015. This spring he has shown up as the good DK, which is the best positive sign this year. Will he hold it?
Worry/Concern #4 – Is Charlie Morton a mirage or even a PED mad cheater? No, it is not likely the new Astro is on the juice with testing these days, but his story is just so unusual that if he comes through as he has shown this spring, he may be THE story in baseball. To date:
- His career numbers are 46-71, with a 4.55 ERA, 1.441 WHIP and a -2.6 WAR.
- In his last 5 seasons he has thrown over 130 innings once.
- In 9 seasons he has won more games than he lost once.
- At the age of 32, when most pitchers are thinking about how little time they have left, he changed his delivery and tacked multiple mph to his pitches.
Will he continue to pitch as the Astros thought he would when they signed him early in free agency and as he has excelled during ST?
Worry/Concern #5 – Is Joseph Musgrove the real deal or will he get figured out the next time through the league? He was solid in 10 starts at the end of 2016 with a 4-4 record and 4.04 ERA. But guys have looked good before in short stints (e.g. Kevin Chapman with a 1.77 ERA in 25 games in his 2013 debut) and fallen on their faces over a full season…..OK – I’m really not worried about this one. I think the guy is very good, but the question is still out there.
Worry/Concern #6 – Who would the Astros give up to get a rotation “upgrade” and would that upgrade turn into Scott Kazmir II? The discussions about trading some combination of Alex Bregman, Francis Martes, Kyle Tucker and/or Musgrove for Jose Quintana has been tantalizing and upsetting. Can the Astros avoid making this trade or make the trade for a more palatable package of prospects?
So, in the list above….
- What keeps you up worried at night?
- What has you concerned but not worried?
- What does not bother you a bit?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
149 responses to “Astros rotation: The gray area between worry and concern”
My biggest concern is #2. Because LMJ is so young and hasn’t matured enough as a TOR starter, he has not been able to keep his pitch count low and stay in the game. I am concerned he will hurt himself before he learns how to get batters out without throwing all of them 6 or 7 pitches.
My second biggest concern is that the Astros will not be able to develop two more prospects and get them into the rotation before Keuchel and McHugh leave in free agency, forcing the team to have to pay huge bucks for a free agent or two and bust up their core.
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Looking at Brian McT’s twitter account this morning answers a lot of the Astros’ pitching questions.
Keuchel opening day
LMJ or Morton will start games 2 and 3, with the order not decided yet.
Musgrove has made the team and will start Game 4 against Mariners.
Fiers starts Game 5 against the Royals.
Peacock has probably made the team as a reliever, giving the team 2 long relievers.
McHugh most likely starts season on DL and getting starts in minor league camp.
Then the fun begins. When McHugh is ready, what happens next probably depends on how Peacock is pitching as a reliever and whether or not another reliever with options is struggling.
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When McHugh returns that will be interesting.
– I hope Musgrove stays in the rotation at that point
– Fiers could slide into that 2nd long reliever slot
– Peacock could slide back into a short reliever spot as you say or…
– They could try and trade Fiers or Peacock
– They could release one of the two – more likely Peacock
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On a different note I really am liking the line drives coming off Gurriel’s bat – he is a professional hitter.
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Fun game so far today – nice lefty on lefty hit by Reddick, dingers by JFSF and MarGo – two great plays by Springer in the 4th and solid outing so far by Musgrove.
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Major worry: Tony Sipp is our only lefty and Blummer made the comment, “you can’t pitch Sipp every night against Cano.” This will be the organization’s biggest gaffe! At this point, unless they can find one on the scrap heap, we’ll be inducing late-game lefty lineups. Perhaps that’s a good strategy until the right guy shows up, while Harris and Hoyt pitch well v southpaws.
Things are shaping up like I’d hoped in that the worst pitchers are taking time off. But the fact that we don’t have depth here is my only real concern. The rest looks airtight.
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I wouldn’t pitch Sipp any night against Cano.
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I’d be willing to eat Sipp’s salary (and Singleton’s.). Instead, what we’ll do is insert Tony in low leverage until he can find that old, late movement. If it’s yet possible again…? I’m really pretty shocked we didn’t throw greater competition for the LOOGY spot! He’s just taking up space for a spot that Gustave is probably going to lose now.
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Robinson Cano is 0 for 6 against Will Harris lifetime with 3 Ks, so there is that.
Cano is 0 for 2 against Giles.
Cano eats Gregerson and Sipp for dinner, though.
Cano has one at bat against Feliz with 1 HR and 4 RBIs.
So, there is history here.
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There’s no reason to eat Singleton’s contract unless it nets us a prospect in return. He’s off the 40-man roster and still has options. The Astros are better served holding onto him until his contract expires after the 2018 season.
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I don’t know some would argue to cut bait on Singleton vice putting Davis at AA. I’m not one of those, but I can see the argument.
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It is crazy to me that they did not line up a plan B on the lefty reliever position. It puts us at a definite matchup disadvantage.
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I was hoping either Tolliver, Guduan, or Reif would step up to the rubber and provide us a decidedly better left-handed option than Sipp. Unfortunately, none of them could even consistently keep the ball in the strike zone this spring. Except for Keuchel, left-handed pitching is a weakness throughout our system.
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I’ve noticed that Hinch this spring training has inserted Giles in the game right after the starting pitcher leaves, in order to have Giles pitching against the other team’s major league hitters.
I think that has given Giles a good look at himself and keeps him with the pressure of pitching well against top hitters and lets the younger relievers have the pressure of closing out the games for the major league club, but against minor league hitters.
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Great point op and a good job noticing it.
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I thought Hinch was trying to show who was ahead today in the last spot race by throwing Hoyt.
Btw, I brought this up before – even though Giles looked good again today, I still think Luke is the Closer at this point. I hate the “convention” of naming one. But if pressed, I trust Gregerson until I don’t, more. That swing/miss curve has been devastating.
It occurred to me conversely that we don’t want to be facing Dyson, or Edwin Diaz late in games. Those guys will most likely be lockdown..
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Ken Giles is the Astros closer.
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Yes, it’s Giles job unless he struggles like he did in April 2016.
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Tyler Heineman is now a Milwaukee Brewer. No return.
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Cash or PTBNL. I wouldn’t expect to get anything for Tyler. This is the best thing for him. It’s a heck of a lot better than a demotion or for him to become an organizational catcher. Stassi and Centeno are at AAA and nobody took Tyler in Rule 5. I’m glad the Astros did him this favor.
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If 0 is “don’t worry, be happy” and 10 is “Oh my God, what are we going to do now”, then put me down for a 7.2576. Baseball fans like statistics and those show that someone will not make it to July without the DL. But every team has that hanging over their head.
Next week, there will be several lefties on the market. We can take a chance on one. In limited exposure to TV none that departed showed anything. And is it not strange that the Astros do not seem to be able to draft, sign and develop a catcher. You don’t see many converting to catcher, so it is most difficult to find a good one at age 18, but man we could use a little luck of the draw on at least one.
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Listened to the game on the way to the Casino today, Musgrove like McCullers had the first inning jitters…..but settled down nicely! First time I’ve been out of the house in two months…felt good to act normal for a change! It was a win-win for Musgrove AND me!! I’m glad Luhnow and Hinch are putting the kid in the rotation, that makes three home grown pitchers in our rotation! Says a lot about the Astros and their approach to grooming our own young pitchers! I fully expect Martes to make some noise by July! Seven more days boys and girls! Becky⚾
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Thought the same thing about Musgrove. He was all over the place in the first, dirt, high, he was missing by a mile. Left 3 pitches right in the heart of the plate. First inning is part of the game as well, I hope he doesn’t press in his first start thinking he could be the odd guy out when McHugh comes back and leaves a pitch right in the heart against Cano because he won’t get it back.
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Joe Nathan and Matt Albers both pitched against the Astros yesterday and then were released by the Nationals.
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I was a little shocked that Albers who is fighting to stay in the majors looked in such poor shape. He has never been svelte but this was bothersome.
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Maybe he is set up nicely with that $11.38 million he has made in his career. That would buy me the biggest double-wide, the fanciest 1-ton and the few hundred acres to use them on I could ever want, with a nest egg to last me and the Mrs until I don’t care anymore. Throw in a small lake, a Browning shotgun and a big deer rifle and I am all set up like a Fat Matt!
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I’d never put shoes on again.
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Through 829 career games
Jose Altuve 1,046 hits, .311/.354/.437 Pete Rose 999 hits, .299/.356/.419
Altuve 287 days younger.
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And Altuve will have the luxury of being a DH in his later years.
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Rose survived off pitch selection and getting a good pitch to hit, Altuve does it a different way that may become difficult for him in his mid 30s and his hand/eye slows a bit. Can Altuve come back down to earth and join mortal hitters as a .280ish guy in his mid 30s and still catch Rose?
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Pete never took a ton of walks either, but even though he really did not have a good year after the age of 40, he still played 700 plus more games. Our guy Jose might be getting a bit chubby as he gets into his 40’s. Rose has a record that might not ever be broken, but for right now, I think it’s cool that Altuve is ahead of the pace. But he’s got to average 200 hits a season for the next 15 years to get over 4000. That’s incredible. I just hope I’m still around when Jose calls it a day! With the money he will have made, I don’t think he’ll be playing into as long as Pete did. Pete probably needed the paycheck.
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Pete still needs the paycheck ….. he has a bad “habit”
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Hoyt or Gustave? It wasn’t too long ago they would have both made our bullpen in the first two weeks of spring training.
Brad Peacock’s spring stats as a starter are horrible and as a reliever are very good. He was like two different pitchers. But as a starting pitcher he faced major league hitters. Who did he face as a reliever? I checked. It was minor league hitters. He made a late 3-inning start and did well against major league hitters, though.
Jake Marisnick is our fourth outfielder. I wonder if we would have had Brett Phillips up by now had we not given him away. And I will always wonder why Carlos Gomez was so horrible in Houston. Did the Crawford boxes eat him up, mentally?
Can’t wait to see McHugh pitch tonight. Am hoping the rest is a huge help to him. Do not want to see a first start like he had against the Yankees last season. Please wait until his dead arm is alive again.
Will we see the real Astros starting lineup tonight against the Cardinals #1 starter, Carlos Martinez? Even if we do, I anticipate the Astros will have the wrong player leading off.
Interesting that the Astros had White, Davis and Moran all playing various infield positions all spring. I suspect Hinch might have told Davis he is going back to AA because he and White and Reed and Moran can’t all get enough at bats on the same team. That is probably why Hinch sweetened the pot for Davis by keeping him on the team to play the Cubs in Houston this week.
I wonder if Luhnow thought Guduan might be farther along in his development than he showed this spring. I know he hoped Sipp would pitch like the poor Tony Sipp rather than the rich Tony Sipp. Neither hope panned out, as did none of the other lefty retreads brought in this spring. I guess that’s why the Astros only have 38 players on their roster. They need another lefty reliever.
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Phillips had a pretty bad 2016 for a guy who had jumped into the 50’s of the prospect rankings. I doubt he would be in the mix for a position in Houston – I think Fisher would have passed him on the spreadsheet by now.
Hoyt or Gustave? I’ll take Hoyt, but with the caveat that Hinch can’t throw him more than 1 inning per appearance.
I have no idea what Luhnow thinks about Guduan or any of the other lefties in the system. I know Chapman must be a really nice guy because they kept him around far longer than his stats or performances would have justified. What surprises me is that he didn’t bring in LHP who previously started but in the twilight of their career with the lure of being a possible 6th starter for emergencies and key left handed specialist in the bullpen at other times. Maybe he did, perhaps no one was available he liked.
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Peacox numbers are horrible against WASH, but sub 1 ERA vs everyone else. We won’t face them much, anyhow.
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I won’t be able to watch the game tonight, so if you don’t mind post how you think McHugh looks tonight. We are really counting on him to be at least the pitcher he was last year…..or maybe the McHugh we saw in 2015.
OP……loved your thoughts on Albers! His brother is married to our niece.
AND…. a shout out to Browning shotgun, because Browning was my maiden name!
My father had a 16 gauge Browning…..shot many a squirrel with that gun!
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Becky –
I feel like there is a bad joke somewhere here about a shotgun wedding, though I bet Mr. Browning was brandishing his Browning around any boy who tried to get close to his daughter Becky.
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LOL!! No…..my dad never showed any of my dates his shot gun!! I grew up with three older brothers, my brothers and my dad hunted on our property a lot. I grew up on a farm in Southern Ohio…..we had 23 acres of beautiful green land! I can shoot any gun, except for that shot gun…it kicked me backwards, and I never picked it up again!
Funny thing is NONE of my brothers or my dad ever watched baseball! Go figure😁
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AJ Hinch has told Dayan Diaz that he has not made the team.
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We have several unknowns. Keuchel has looked really good this spring – but, alas, he looked even more dominating last spring, and we know how that turned out. His problem is that he always has to face the other team’s ace. Unfortunately, even with our improved offense we are not likely to give DK much room for error when we are facing an ace.
McCullers has great K numbers, but still needs to learn to get through the first inning without a three-ball count. He also needs to consistently get through the first five innings with less than 75 pitches thrown.
Morton has looked great this spring. Please let him be for real. If he is, and Mc
Cullers and Musgrove mature the way they are capable of doing, we won’t need the overpriced Quintana or the oft-injured Sonny Gray – even for the playoffs.
Musgrove has shown flashes of brilliance. Alas, he has to do that consistently now.
Fiers is Fiers. Half the time he is very good. The other days, I hope Hinch learns to pull him quickly, before we are buried. We have Devenski, Feliz, and Peacock for long relief. No need to let Fiers twist in the wind this year.
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*If we were going to trade for starting pitching, who could we trade.*
I am not desperate for a trade. I do not advocate trading Bregman, Martes, or K. Tuck. If we are going to trade someone, we need to trade players who are blocked. That’s some pretty talented fellows: Davis, White, Moran, Kemp, either Laureano or Fisher [not both], either Gustave or Hoyt [not both], Rodgers, Paulino, Bostick, Sneed, Armenteros, McCurry, Farrell,and maybe even Reed depending on the quality of the return. Of course there are others who could be thrown in at various levels [including Daz Cameron if anyone is interested]. If no one wants any combination of these, that’s fine – it’s their loss. If someone else will give away their 1-2-3 prospects for Quintana – or especially Sonny Gray – let them have him.
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Bregman, Franklin Perez and Collin McHugh for Quintana.
I think we have 1B and 3B covered with Gurriel, White, Reed, Moran, Davis and Marwin. Get us Quintana to go with Keuchel, LMJ, Morton and Musgrove. Stick Fiers in the pen and get Martes ready to hit the majors later this year.
Go for it all, win the division and have that rotation ready for the playoffs, when top notch pitching matters more than anything!
Why would Chicago want McHugh? Because, without Quintana, their rotation is one of the worst in baseball and McHugh helps them until their young stud prospects are ready and he’s cheap.
Give from our excess to get what we want.
Ok, I’ve got my kevlar vest on. Let it fly.
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Kevlar vest lol! I wouldn’t do it, but I understand the argument for it.
If I am moving Bregman I want it to be for a strikeout pitcher that can start game 1 against the other teams strikeout pitcher. Smoltz was the third best pitcher in that vaunted Braves rotation, but was probably the best playoff pitcher. Power arms tend to have more success in the playoffs. Maybe that guy can be Lance, if he is upright by that time.
If we can get Quintana for a lesser package, I’m all for it. The guy is legit, his command is excellent. He might be the best pitcher in baseball at getting average major leaguers to hit the pitchers pitch. I’m not convinced he is going to be able to do that to the Red Sox or Indians in the playoffs.
Of course we have to GET to the playoffs for that matter. I think we can get there with what we have though. We are better as a team this year with your deal, there is no denying that. I don’t know that it makes us terribly better of a playoff team, not to lose Bregman.
Make a deal that brings back Archer, and I move Bregman.
What if you can package Bregman and two other guys (K Tuck and say Moran) for Archer and still swing a Reed/Martes/McHugh deal for Quintana? We would be set for the next 3-4 years, assuming everyone stays healthy. Unfortunately, in both those deals, I’m convinced it will take more.
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It’s funny – I’m not as high on Bregman as anyone else here, but don’t like the idea of moving him in a package for Archer or Quintana. I think Bregman helps you win more games than either. I expect a dropoff for Quintana is coming and how Archer got pummeled by the playoff teams worries me.
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McHugh had some jitters in his first inning back. Gave up three singles and a run. At least he didn’t walk anybody or give up any bombs. Then he got an improbable outfield assist from Preston Tucker and closed out the first with a K of Jose Martinez.
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Okay, McHugh is pretty much a train wreck in this first start. Good thing he starts the year on the DL – he’s got a long way to go to be ready for prime time again.
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McHugh’s pitching line 1.2 innings, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 EBH, 1 BB, 2 Ks, 47 pitches [29 strikes]. Fastball velocity at 88-90 – and thrown all too often across the heart of the plate, waist to letters high. Hoyt came in to get him out of the 2nd.
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Hoyt with a good job working out of two jams – one of his own making (though a bunt against the shift and a seeing eye hit helped get him in that jam).
Peacock looked really good – again not paying attention to who was hitting against him – so maybe not that impressive, but maybe he could be a good arm in the pen for them.
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Thanks guys…..yes, it appears McHugh needs a lot more work before he’s ready for this season. I certainly hope we get the good Collin McHugh, and not the one who was put on waivers in 2014. As for Hoyt, I hope he’s done enough to earn his place in the bullpen. Gustave will get his chance soon enough, but Hoyt’s time is now.
OP…..I sure hope you’re right about Peacock, and he turns out to be a good problem to have! Who knows…..maybe he will never have success as a starter, but a really good long man outta the pen!
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Becky, Peacock pitched better tonight than I have ever seen him. His fastball was moving and he was putting it on the outside corner at the knees.
He had a curve that was coming out of his hand straight and then dropped straight down and a slider that started off mid thigh and darted down and out to righties and down and in to lefties.
He faced their starters all the way through their order and faced their backups in the ninth. He got Bader out, who had looked good all night against our other pitchers and his wild pitch in the ninth looked like a passed ball on Centeno to me.
If McHugh is not hurting tomorrow you can count that as a win because he looked just like a guy who hasn’t pitched since last year. He had command of none of his pitches but he was able to throw all of them. I think he will be ready when his ten day dl is over, but if the Astros rotation is working, I think they will be conservative with Collin.
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everyone hit McQ squarely – his breaking pitches lacked any appeal for me, no fastball command. I’m glad he’s on the DL and the hesitation concern in Hinch’s voice was pretty obvious. Even though they’re cloaking these things in “ups” (innings), we can all see the difference in McQ and Sipp as guys who are just barely getting out fringe hitters.
Conversely, guys who snapped off their ups were especially impressive; Feliz, then Peacock’s relative ease and command of the curve Wow!, and Hoyt delivering flawlessly out of a jam. All of them looked game ready, and deserve their spots!
Gattis is recognizing the offspeed stuff but they keep freezing him with the curve. I’d like to see him wait on that first pitch changeup they keep throwing him as well.. I think he’s lying in wait for the regular season!
Bregman – every time I’m willing to trade him for Q, he comes up stout. In the long run, I think his bat is just too strong to let him go. The problem is going to be AJ Reed hitting 10 HR’s in Apr or May at Fresno. [he went opposite field tonight, clearly working hard on his swing] Do we start to groom Alex for LF by July if that happens? I still don’t think he’s the answer at 3B (but Gurriel is). Anyway, it’s a long season a lot of dust to settle. With Marwin on a walk year, they’ll probably give Reed most of the year in AAA?
SEA’s Gallardo got touched up for 7 in 4, neither could their offensive generate much from the lowly Padres. A good sign, if we get to face him in game #4. Smyly’s going to be tough, but I like our righty lineup too.
Looks like Springer takes the lead off until it’s not working. We’re all on a hopeful launch for this very talented crew🙂
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Also, going back to a comment Bill made about keeping LMJ pitch count down … Saturday he had 21 pitches in the 1st. It should’ve been 13 because he picked off Turner (at least once, if not 3X’s!) that got missed calls, and then Marwin fumbled a routine 3rd out to extend 7 more pitches – that’s not going to happen in the regular season. It doesn’t look like anyone smart is going to be taking a wide lead on him either! Not only these observations, but it was the way his curve shaped to K Harper – just filthy. Werth having to contort just to make contact. The ball just disappears.
Being able to package up his outing, the economy of burning inning after inning with no runs. If he pairs this method with his intensity, and having a steady battery mate to guide him, Lance is actually going to be overshadowed, when in all likelihood Keuchel Morton Musgrove pitch well too.
A recent article claimed they’d sweeten the deal for Feliz by letting him start in Fresno. Talk about the forgotten guy in 2017? At this point he looks sharper than Devo (still trying to hone his changeup), so we’re really ‘loaded with longmen.’ I like that characterization instead, so we don’t get caught up in lefty lefty specific matchups. Just stick a guy in for at least 2IP and see how he feels after that … save the bullpen. Something is working, stay with it.
Seems like in this almighty effort to get guys their work every night; Harris then Luke then Giles … we create more problems. One guy gets in trouble (usually Giles), then what? I’d much rather pitch the ace when its crucial, or stick with a guy the other team cannot hit. Contracts and allowing guys their opportunities when it’s detrimental to the team (like even allowing Sipp to go in there, pat him on the shoulder “hey it’s ok buddy”)…. it burns me up when Diaz and Gustave have to pay for caudling that guy when he knew well and good all offseason. Same with Marwin and McQ battling for arbitration money and not being hellbent on a roster spot.
You’re not going to see Springer taking a handout. His play will make the GM pay.
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Just a rant, sorry Astroholics!
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And careless ha!
I meant, I’m sorry, Astroholics.
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My hope is that Hinch will be intelligent with the usage of Harris/Gregerson/Giles, but I really have no confidence in that. We’ve seen him burn the effective bullpen guys out the last two years. I think our best hope is that the offense will beat up on the other team’s bullpen and afford a lot of non-save situations at the end of games.
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Devin, I’m thinking that he is going to have six or seven go-to guys in that bullpen and won’t have to rely on just three guys late in the game. I think you will see Feliz, Devenski and Hoyt depended upon more and more late in games as they build up trust.
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https://www.google.com/amp/www.baseballamerica.com/majors/francis-martes-cusp-making-houston-astros/%3Famphtml%3D1
Do we wait ’til June?
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I think Fresno is the right place for him now. No doubt injuries will give him a chance soon enough.
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Preston Tucker was sent to minor league camp this morning.
The Orioles released Michael Bourn and Chris Johnson yesterday.
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Where is Correa?
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April 3 vSEA: Keuchel
April 4 vSEA: McCullers
April 5 vSEA: Morton
April 6 vSEA: Musgrove
April 7 vKC: Fiers
Will be interesting this order on May 1st, and June 1.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/astros/status/846780899832352768/video/1
Barreled up!
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Keuchel not at his best today, but still a great 7 to 1 GO/AO ratio. Unfortunately, the few pitches he left up all came at just the wrong time, and got hammered.
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Yep watched it, he has to be so perfect at 88MPH, I still go with what I have stated many times before, 2015 was amazing, but once in his career. I see 13-10 3.92-4.10 . which is fine, just not an ace. If I’m wrong Wahoo
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That’s what makes me queasy. Problem is that Keuchel is our number one guy and if he goes 13 and 10, who makes up for it? I don’t know.
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Observations/questions concerning ST 2017:
George Springer is still only one man’s idea of a lead-off hitter.
Jake Marisnick is still nothing more than a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner – but has been given more PAs than anyone else on the team. Why?
Yuli Gurriel is indeed a professional hit man – I mean hitter.
Centeno is better than Heineman how? He hits like a girl [wait for it . . . was that a Browning shotgun’s report I just heard?]
If our bullpen is as good on the field as it is on paper . . . WOW!
Kyle Tucker is still not ready for prime-time. Derek Fisher, J.D. Davis, and A.J. Reed, on the other hand . . .
I wonder what our line-up could really do if our projected starters actually played together?
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Addendum:
Dayan Diaz can most definitely strike out minor leaguers.
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Conrad Gregor has been released. Lancaster effect strikes again.
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I was just looking at CC Hooks roster this morning and wondering how they were going to play Gregor, with all of the guys they need to give ABs to. Conrad’s wall was in AA. Who else is going to flatten their faces in AA? Ferguson? McDonald?
Ramsey smashed into that same wall.
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Mr Bill, I thought about you last week. My three year old grandson came for a visit and his daddy asked him to sing his special song for us. He got this silly grin on his face and started hopping around the coffee table as he sang:
oo ee oo ah ah ting tang
walla walla bing bang
oo ee oo ah ah ting tang
walla walla bing bang
My wife and I were laughing so hard, and everybody else was just sitting there wondering what they were listening to.
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My friend the witch doctor he told me what to say.
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Looking at Fresno’s roster – it currently consists of 30 players [well, actually 31, since it still lists Tyler Heineman, who is now a Brewer, as one of five catchers]. Several warm bodies are going to have to go.
Looking at Corpus Christi’s roster, with J.D. Davis now on their roster they have three open spaces at present [since Gregor’s release, and considering Nick Tanielu’s DL status], but one of those three spots has to go to a catcher to back up Garrett Stubbs.
I have to wonder, are Singleton and maybe Aplin about to receive their walking papers? What are we going to do when guys from Buis Creek are ready to advance?
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It’s time to cut bait with both, but especially Singleton. It would take an injury to several people just for him to even sniff the big leagues again. We were hoodwinked by the Phillies on this one.
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Let’s talk about Fresno’s roster.
Reed, Singleton, and White are listed as 1B
Moran is listed as 3B
Brignac is listed as 2B
There are seven outfielders (Aplin, Fisher, Garcia, Teoscar, Kemmer, Kemp, and Tucker)
We don’t have a SS and our only CF is Aplin at this point. I guess you play Garcia or Fisher there. Kemp could play 2B if Brignac plays mostly SS.
I think the only solution is we put the tandem system in place for LF, 1B, and DH.
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I think you’ll see Moran play a lot of SS with Fresno.
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Tim, Moran might be slower than Tucker. I don’t think he can get to balls in the hole or up the middle.
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They played him at SS in ST several times. I think there was a reason for it.
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Tim, they also played Brett Wallace at SS a few times in Fresno. I think the reason for it with Moran was that Correa and Bregman were both at the WBC, but do expect they are giving him a chance to show he can fill in at multiple positions in a pinch.
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Chase McDonald was released today.
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Speaking of the Lancaster affect…
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It’s good to have three guys on the ML roster that can play short, especially when you’ve got two with All Star potential. We sure don’t have any help in the upper minors. Brignac, at 31 with a lifetime OPS of .573 in the majors, might have a job in Fresno that he otherwise would not. I could see a younger guy who plays short picked up before Fresno starts play.
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Mayfield is a SS.
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The Astros rotation is set for the opening five games of the season.
Keuchel loves pitching in Houston. Even against King Felix, I like DK’s chances. If he’s healthy and ready, he’s a good #1 for us.
LMJ is #2. He’s healthy because he would be on the DL if he wasn’t. I think he was toying with things in the ST and he will be ready to go on day two. Iwakuma is a good pitcher but he has never faced an Astros lineup like this before.
Morton is being rested as a precaution. You’ll notice he is the only Houston pitcher not throwing this week. He had a lot of pressure on him to perform this spring and I think they are giving him a breather and he will be fresh by the time Game 3 rolls around. We have not heard one word about Morton since he was pulled after 4.1 innings in his last start. He matches up well against Paxton, who is going to face a big right handed Houston lineup.
Musgrove won’t have near the jitters he had last season and I like it that they are letting him pitch game 4 against a team he will observe three times before he faces them.
Fiers is a veteran now and he faces a #5 pitcher for the Royals. I like this matchup.
Hopefully McHugh can take his time getting strong and come to the team ready to be the pitcher he was in 2015. I think he will be pumped up by the time he gets into the rotation.
The Astro may be looking for another starting pitcher and almost all the people who cover baseball like Quintana to Houston, but they also like the fact that both Houston and Chicago named their deals and that neither team is budging.
Houston has six starting pitchers lined up and three long relievers in the pen, and one of the best late inning bullpens in baseball.
If they are a winning team in April, I love their chances this season. And I really love having Paulino and Martes in AAA.
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op that was outstanding. i am in agreement with it all.
i dont want to trade for quintana at this point because as you point out we have 6 starters, a well constructed bullpen, and what i believe could be two (eventually) outstanding starters. i would have to see quite a bit if disarray before i would want to trade martes and/or paulino and have to give up k tucker and more along with the young pitching. quintana might be worth it for a year or two, but over time because we have such a strong team producing better run support for a few years, the players we would have to give up would make it a bad trade. quintana vs martes, paulino, k tucker and a couple more? i think with that additional run support martes and paulino will be just fine at a fraction of the cost money wise AND k tucker plus whoever else we would have had to give in the deal are still astros. thats the better deal to me.
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OP, I love their chances this year if they have a good April.
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Hey Sandy, this is a great observation. Their September opponents are projected to have the best cumulative record of any month. Getting off to a good start in April is important to start building a cushion for when we (hopefully) will be protecting a lead.
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162 Skiddoo!
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Our lineup vs Straily
https://mobile.twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/847056548316827649/photo/1
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Fiers is pitching like someone who does not want to be a long reliever when McHugh returns…..
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Dan, I’d like to see him show the same passion about 33 times this year.
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Mr. Dorris has had a day to remember. I don’t think there is enough alcohol in the world to make him forget his major league debut in the ninth inning of a tie game.
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And Derek Fisher goes all Giancarlo Stanton in the bottom of the frame and bails out Jacob Dorris from an embarrassment of epic proportions. What a wondrous time is spring!
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So Bill, what are the lyrics to ” What a Wonderful Spring”? And please, don’t butcher it too much, as it’s one of the few songs that easily bring tears to my eyes.
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Morton threw about 95 pitches in 6 innings of a minor league game today, so he’s ready.
McHugh is going to throw a bunch of pitches in a simulated game on Saturday, fly to Houston for Monday’s opener and will be placed on the DL and have at least one minor league rehab start, maybe a second.
Fisher’s coming to Houston to be there in the team’s two exhibition games against The Champs and then rejoin his minor league teammates.
Both Gustave and Hoyt will pitch on Thursday and then coaches will decide who stays. Their performance on Thursday will not determine the outcome. That will be determined by the meeting of the minds.
Paulino’s elbow bruise is better and he will start throwing in the next couple of days.
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I’m betting Hoyt.
Hinch threw it out there early that Gustave impressed, as a sort of challenge to Hoyt.
Both guys have one-inning wipeout stuff. Both got themselves into a little trouble in Spring, and from a “stuff” standpoint, Gustave is more of a thrower, Hoyt locates wicked breaking pitches a bit better. Jandel’s fastball reminds me of Martes’. Hard to catch up to if you don’t know it’s coming..
In my opinion, they’re both MUCH better than the Sipp option.
Which means we have huge trade chips in relief, whereas some teams are bereft of it.
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Drew Smyly will not make his final spring start on Friday and his status for next week’s start against the Astros is still in question.
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Aren’t you glad Luhnow didn’t make THAT trade…..but who knows “Q” could come down with an elbow problem by the time this club would really need him. Just goes to tell ya…..there are no guarantees in baseball. 5 more days boys and girls!
Ricky Fowler is throwing out the first pitch tomorrow against the Cubs!!
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M’s: 36 trades in 16 months, you’re going to lose a lot of what you can control not staying in-house.
Also, Astros one of 3 pro teams to have no TJ surgery since 2015 (Riley Ferrell comes to mind in minors), and the 3rd most plentiful homegrown team. Doing a lot of things right under Luhnow.
Most pitchers have a 20-30% chance of injury based largely on how hard a thrower. I’m impressed how the Stros are “shelving” their guys with so few innings. While writing how upset I am about the lefty situation, one name I’ve slept on was Cionel Perez. So many young, fresh arms!
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So, in this scenario the Astros are predicted to finish behind the Mariners in the AL West, beat the Blue Jays in the wild card, beat the indians in the ALDS, beat the Mariners in the ALCS, and beat the Cubs in the World Series.
http://www.sbnation.com/a/mlb-2017-season-preview
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The local rag ran the article that Bregman was hitting #2 slot. That answer goes back to the lineups questions – remember that one?
So versus Righties:
Springer
Bregman
Altuve
Correa
Beltran
Reddick
Gurriel
McCann
Aoki
We’re not sprinkling in different looks here?
And versus Lefties:
Springer
Bregman
Altuve
Correa
Beltran LF
Gattis C
Gurriel
Jake
Beltran plays the field, who is the right-handed power bat? McCann is DH? See the missing piece … Tyler White, or JD Davis?
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Reading what the “smart” baseball reporters are writing and prognosticating, I have gathered the following:
Gary Sanchez is Mike Trout in a squatting position.
Dallas Keuchel will never recover.
Charlie Morton does not exist.
Jose Fernandez is to be revered, no matter what he did.
Lance McCullers Jr is a beautiful glass vase.
Jose Altuve is a player to be talked about reverently, but to be dismissed when talking about greatness.
Carlos Correa is to be hyped.
The Dodgers are great.
Nori Aoki does not exist. If he did exist in a 35 year old body without an ounce of fat on him, he couldn’t play outfield as well as a 40 year old fat guy.
DH is a position to be utilized by putting both of your catchers in the lineup at the same time and testing fate a number of times a year.
Jeff Bagwell is the only player ever to be traded.
Spending $150 million for batters still doesn’t get you one that the manager trusts to put in the top 4 of the lineup.
Whoever wins the AL West, their manager is Manager of the Year.
Wild hog hunting is fun. (Guess what I did yesterday).
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Brad Peacock- How can he help the Astros win the World Series?
Brad Pecock had hip and back trouble, which pretty well eliminated him from helping the Astros the last two or three years and even kept him from being effective in AAA. But, worst of all, his injuries kept him from getting better as a pitcher.
Peacock’s four seam fastball had decent velocity but he couldn’t throw it all the time as a starter and when it got hit, it got hit hard and in the air. His curve was good but it was also slow and gave batters a chance to adjust. His changeup had movement into a RH batter and got hit in the air, a lot.
Now comes 2017. Peacock tried a two seam fastball and noticed it had movement downward. Commanding this pitch would allow him to get his groundball rate up on his fastball, eliminate his changeup which dropped his flyball rate further and allowed him to use his slider against righties as a third pitch. His changeup is now not being thrown.
Armed with three different looking pitches, all with downward movement, and finally commanding the two-seamer with late downward movement and not having to pitch five or six innings has suddenly allowed Peacock to come in and be effective for one or even two innings at a time. If he can do this once every series or so, a team will not have the opportunity to see his stuff as often, but might have to face a Peacock once and then a Feliz once and a Devenski once and then move on to another team with only a few batters getting a look or two at all of them.
Peacock doesn’t have to be Ken Giles. He just has to be himself, a guy with good stuff who doesn’t have the weight of the world on his shoulders, but has command of three pitches for an inning or two a few times a week. A guy who could grow into the role of a dependable reliever, sort of like Will Harris did at the same age.
This keeps guys like Gregerson and Harris from having to make 50 or 55 appearances and let’s those two give Giles a break.
The key to having a fresh bullpen in October is to have 8 guys in it that you can use efficiently all year long.
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An added bonus is that on nights where Peacock clearly does not have command we won’t have to watch as Hinch tries to squeeze five innings out of him.
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I have been offered a lot of Kool-Aid over the years. But I am not drinking any Kool-Aid that smells like Peacock.
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I am also dubious.
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I am Spartacus.
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