Everyone in the world not only has the opportunity, but also the need for improvement in their jobs and in their home lives. Similarly, young and rich baseball players have the same kind of need, no matter how young and how rich they may be for showing improvement on the field. Today’s effort is to look at some of the 2017 Astros and choose an area for them to work on during spring training and throughout this season. So without further discussion….
Jose Altuve. This feels like a finger painter critiquing Cezanne….could he get taller? No? Then how about returning to the Altuve who tattoed LHP for .372 BA/.431 OBP/ .973 OPS in 2015? He was a pedestrian (for him) .306 BA/ .391 OBP/ .885 OPS against the lefties in 2016.
George Springer. The gut reaction is to ask big George to cut down on that human windmill act and strike out less. A noble goal, but it is probably a futile request. So instead, a fella with his speed and smarts has no business getting thrown out stealing more than half the time (9 for 19 in SBs). Tighten that up please. Oh and sure – if he could cut down that 24% K rate everyone would be ecstatic.
Collin McHugh. One of the striking differences between last season when he was mediocre and previous seasons was Collin’s ability to get out left handed hitters. In 2016 lefties put up a robust .291 BA /.804 OPS against him as compared to .235/.648 in 2015 and .220/.609 in 2014. (Also if he could get back to his 2014 .190/.556 against righties that would not hurt).
Carlos Correa. A right handed hitter as good as Carlos is should never hit .236 BA against LHPs like he did in 2016. Get back to using the whole field against lefties Mr. Correa.
Yulieski Gurriel. He certainly doesn’t have to be a 30 HR guy, but as a corner infield he needs to show more pop than he did in a small sample last season and he needs to draw walks. A .262 BA in 2016 was solid; a .292 OBP was poor and a .385 SLG was bad.
Lance McCullers Jr. The easy area to point at would be health but that is a hard thing to work on in ST. Instead the wunderkind needs to cut back on baserunners allowed. His WHIP from 2016 looks like something from circa 2013 Jordan Lyles (1.543) ….. Yes his great stuff kept his ERA sparkling, but the baserunners ran up his pitch count and put extra strain on the young man’s arm. He walked more batters in 2016 than in 2015 in 2/3 the innings. Did the injury lead to the runners or did the runners and extra pitches lead to the injury?
Dallas Keuchel. Better communication skills on how he is feeling.
Josh Reddick. He was awful against LHP in 2016 with a .155 BA / .366 OPS and yes it would help if they don’t start him often against lefties. But you also can’t pinch hit for him every time a lefty pitcher comes into the game. He needs to aim for his so-so career numbers against lefties .218 BA / .640 OPS.
Ken Giles. In 115.2 mlb innings leading into 2016, Giles had given up 3 HRs. In 65.2 IP in 2016 he gave up 8 HRs and he gave up 15 of his 32 runs for the season in those 8 appearances. He needs to figure out how to keep it in the ball park.
Jake Marisnick, Tyler White, Preston Tucker, A.J. Reed, Tony Kemp, Colin Moran. Except for a 2 week hot spot for Tyler and a warm July for Jake, these guys were really bad in their time in the majors last season. If and when they get called upon they need to be more positive than negative in their value to the team this season. They need to work on not looking overmatched and/or scared at the plate.
There are obviously other folks to critique here and that assignment is given to you.
Of other folks likely on the team, plus the manager, GM, owner, and coaches what areas for improvement do you want them to work on this season?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
155 responses to “Areas of improvement: A focus list for each player”
Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer and Marwin Gonzalez all hit a lot worse against Texas than they did against the rest of baseball. That has to change.
Dallas Keuchel, Doug Fister, Will Harris, Joe Musgrove, and Ken Giles were worse against the Rangers than they were against the rest of baseball. But Collin McHugh and Tony Sipp were absolutely atrocious against the Rangers. This has to stop, if the Astros expect to be successful.
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Well it could have been worse – they could have been great against the Rangers and atrocious against the rest of baseball.
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At 4-15, it was a disaster. They have to play well against Texas to take the next step.
On the flip side, Bregman, Gurriel, Beltran and Reddick hit well against Texas last season.
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Yeah but…. if they had played that bad in the 143 games against the rest of the league they would have been 34-109…
But yes – a return to good play against the rivals is needed.
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With guys like Beltran and McCann and our own in house veteran Jose Altuve, I just don’t see this club falling on their faces right out of the gate unless the rotation implodes. I’m looking for a much more mature team, and that’s not saying much, because it’s obviously by design.
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We can feed on this post for a long time.
Luke Gregerson was outstanding last year. His splits are very good for a pitcher who doesn’t dominate with a huge fastball.
Two things stand out for him:
1. When he got ahead 0-1 in the count he got hit hard. So he needs to look at what he did in that count the majority of the time and figure out something a little different.
2. When he was behind in the count 3-0 he walked that batter five out of five. I think it was intentional so I don’t hold that against him as something to work on. He didn’t want to pitch to those five guys. Cano comes to mind here.
Other than that he was real good.
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Here ya go dave,
http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Tyler-White-trying-to-increase-versatility-10942865.php
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Yes, saw that. Ultimately, White is going to get himself on a ML roster based on how well he hits. And I still think he’ll do that for someone one of these days. I’d love to see him force his way on to our roster by being more versatile. But I also think he’s a pretty smart ball player. I don’t want to lose him.
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Op – Gregerson was a bit streaky last season – pitched clean the first 5 weeks, then had a loss and 3 blown saves in 7 appearances, then had some good games, then blew two saves and lost the closer’s spot. As a set up guy he was nails most of the season. It is amazing he can get so many Ks with a pedestrian fast ball, but actually it’s that sinker slider that gets the Ks.
Daveb – Those vets can keep the kids between the ditches
Rj – I would sure like to see a lot more of the Tyler White who started the season for the Astros.
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Areas of improvement, a focus point for each player: Marwin Gonzalez.
Seems like Marwin is a grizzled veteran but he is only 27.
What is holding Marwin back is his batting eye. His 4.2% walk rate and his 22.8% K rate last season were worse than his already lackluster career stats in those two categories..
With the strike zone rising this season, it is a great time for Marwin to improve these important stats. They are the reason his wRC+ is below average which hurts his value to the team because they keep his WAR down and his WAR from last season does not match up with his salary from this season. If Marwin is going to be anything more than a backup in his career, he has to lay off breaking pitches out of the zone, take those pitches and raise his OBP as a result.
This is where he can improve his game and contribute more.
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Perceptions are so funny – Marwin feels like he should be approaching 30, not 6 months older than Springer.
MarGo might be less important than last year, but if someone falters or there are injuries he could be vitally important. He needs to improve on pitch recognition but can that happen?
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If Marwin or anyone else can’t improve on their performance, then this exercise is worthless. As a blog, let’s do the job you have asked us to: identify the problems.
It’s up to guys making millions to make those changes.
One of the best players in baseball made good strides in pitch recognition in 2016, when it seemed there was little room for improvement. I’d say Marwin needs to sit down and have a talk with Altuve and find out what Altuve did to make that change.
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Good point – I wonder what a player does to change a fairly ingrained habit like that – but you are right that Altuve was much less the free swinger last season especially when leading off.
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Areas of improvement, a focus point for each player: Collin McHugh.
Collin , who is not a power pitcher, got rocked by power lineups last year. Bal, Bosox, Yankees, Tigers and Texas ate him up last year. It might be that Collin McHugh is not a MOR guy, but a BOR guy and be matched up accordingly, especially in the beginning of the year when he sucks.. That might be one thing that would help him.
Keeping his stuff down and away might help him too. He needs more command on the outside part of the plate.
A better game caller behind the plate, could help him, I didn’t trust the guy we had last year at the beginning of the season, when the Astros blew it.
It might be a confidence thing for McHugh. When McHugh doesn’t have his best stuff he seems to get rocked and dosn’t have enough confidence that the team can overcome his mistakes. Maybe McCann and Gattis can help him with his confidence. Maybe this lineup can help him with that.
At any rate, I think matching McHugh up with the other team’s #5 could help him. Pitch him against teams he pitches well against and keep him away from teams that sit on his mediocre fastball and hit it out of the park.
Or trade him for prospects and then get Jose Quintana.
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Biggest improvement which can be made this year teamwise is nutrition, and proper rest toward a sustained excellence. I’m glad we have the youth/depth, and type of athletes who can obsorb the grind. We have 32 games before the start of the season, plus dealing with WBC! It’s incredibly difficult now that the off season isn’t very long and guys have their own regimen to keep up with – there’s really no rest for the weary. That’s where I hope guys like Beltran can come in and show how to do it at 40!
We looked “spent” last season’s opener in NY, and followed it with meeting a red hot Brewer team. This year’s early jump has been much talked about. Being rested but ready stands out as the same prescriptions for LMJ and Keuchel, too.
As a team we can keep focus on strike zone discipline, cutting down base running errors, extending innings. We also have to bring chemistry together – lots many new faces and styles.
With athletes becoming stronger and faster, we’re seeing more injury – why? It has to be common sensically body/nutrition/exercise/rest/balance. It’s the staff’s job to monitor this inherently, and to bring a fresh team out every day.
Being prepared mentally means knowing how you’ll be attacked, finding each exploitable weakness and adjusting back. Let’s see if Tyler White can hit the high heat, bc he ought to know that’s his strikeout pitch..
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http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/216443770/astros-jake-marisnick-out-to-improve-offense/
if jake improves at the plate, it will be fun to see who gets how many at bats.
if he doesnt, he still brings value in the OF and on the bases if used properly. if he doesnt hit, bring him in for defense if ahead or to steal a base if behind.
over 9 innings if he hits like the jake of old, his defense doesnt offset giving away that many outs with 4 or 5 at bats a game. over just 1 or two innings and 0 – 1 at bats, if he runs down a ball or throws a runner out or steals a base, he becomes pretty valuable.
he if hits wooohooo another bat to choose from for this deep and versatile lineup we have.
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Well, I found a way to make it happen. I confirmed with my son’s baseball coach that the boys will have the final weekend of spring break off so I booked our trip to West Palm Beach. We leave very early Friday, March 17th and return Monday, March 20th. We will be going to the games March 17-19. I think I’m more excited than the boys are about continuing our spring training trips. This trip will be much quicker as years past have been week long trips, but I really wanted to see the new facility and now it will happen sooner than I thought. Go Astros!
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Glad you get a shot at it Tim. Making memories is a blast.
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GOOD FOR YOU!! I know you are thrilled, and your boys will never forget the sacrifices you made to take them to spring training! I hope they pay you back someday, and take YOU when you get old like me! Becky⚾
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Jealous man never been
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Tim, take your phone or iPad and give us some good notes as in the past. Enjoy the trip……:-)
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I’ll be taking both with me. I only wish there was a way to upload photos on here as I’ll be taking plenty of photos with my phone.
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On Root Sports they had a replay of the game I went to last season in late August against the Rays. Giles gives up a go-ahead HR in the 9th and then Correa and Gattis go back to back for the walk-off. Insanely loud and fun.
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Area’s of improvement, Charlie Morton.
This one is easy. Charlie has never pitched for Houston. So an area of improvement would be for him to win 15 games and have an ERA under 4.00 and not injure himself at all.
Charlie has been saving himself for this his entire career. It is a no-brainer. Charlie, if you have a breakout year like this, I think there will be a huge prize waiting for you in November.
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I’ve never seen him pitch before…..
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Put duct tape over Hudgens mouth, and make him sit on the bench by himself.
Robinson Cano became an American citizen last week! It was pretty cool to see a picture of him taking the oath holding an American flag in his hand!
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That is a good one for Hudgens, Becky though I am also worried what damage he does when they are not on the field.
I have one for A.J. Hinch – Put Altuve in the leadoff spot. Period
Saw them interviewing Altuve on Sports Sunday last night. His hair is taking off – it looks like something between George Springer and Cosmo Kramer…..
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OK, Dan, I am going to give you an amazing stat:
Altuve led off the game for the Astros 44 times in 2016. His slash line in those 44 ABs was an incredible .452/.477/.952/1.430. When Jose led off the game his OPS in that first at bat was 1.430!
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Areas of improvement, a focus list for each player.
This is not a pile-on session! It is a great way to look at how a player might have approached the off season in order to fix something that held him back from being more successful last season.
Carlos Correa.
A little-seen stat that might help Carlos focus on a specific thing that he had problems with is this one: in 2016, Carlos had 310 at bats in which the count on him was 0-1. In those 310 ABs his slash line was .213/.262/.313/.575. That is more than half of his ABs.
Bottom line is: Carlos needs to be ready for that first pitch and not just sit back and take it because, when he did that, he was not successful.
We saw Carlos take first pitches right down the middle of the plate a lot. That is something he needs to look at because he was not good at coming back from being down 0-1.
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He might benefit from the suggested move putting Altuve at #1 and Beltran at #3. Beltran doesn’t need someone to take pitches when standing on first base and does not put as many early pitches from the at bat in play as Jose. In other words, don’t force Carlos to protect guys…let him go up primed to do damage.
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Excellent observation!
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Ok, where can Jose Altuve look at his total game and find an area to improve upon?
I think I have found it. Look at these comparative slash lines for the 2016 season.
Jose’s slash lines for innings:
1-3 is .355/.419/.592/1.011
4-6 is .376/.412/.590/1.002
7-9 is .282/.349/.408/.757
Extra innings is .188/.381/.188/.568
This guy gives so much every game that he is exhausted near the end of the game.
How does he fix this?
There is a similar trend in his career stats, but not nearly as radical as in 2016.
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I’m assuming that this club will not have the need to attempt as many stolen bases as in years past. And Jose should keep that in mind, even with a green light. The other thing is that perhaps Altuve kept thinking that he needed to be the guy to win a game late and ended up pressing too much. Those are some pretty enlightening stats OP.
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OP –
That Correa stat is extremely telling and it matches what I remember last season. The pitchers read the scouting reports and know if they can groove one without impunity.
The game leadoff stats for Altuve are amazing as are his declining stats in the game.
I bet Correa’s numbers improve during the game – he is so clutch late in the game – it seems.
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What does Tyler White need to do to make the team out of ST? He has to hit at least .500 points better than Jake Marisnick, with better doubles and power numbers, AND have an OBP at least .350 points higher than Yulieski Gurriel – AND play a significantly better quality of 1B than Gurriel, AND brush up on his reserve backstop skills. Meanwhile, I hear Fresno is really nice in the Spring.
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What would either Teoscar Hernandez, Preston Tucker, Colin Moran, or Tony Kemp have to do to make the Astros’ 25-man roster out of ST? It would have to involve an act that carries the death penalty in Texas.
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Mr. Bill – maybe it is just me but I think Teoscar would have the best shot of those four, but definitely it would be based on a next man up concept where somebody (e.g. Marisnick) is traded or injured.
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Bill, that’s an interesting question. Teoscar would have to show great improvement in the outfield, first of all. The picture in my head of him dropping a ball in RF last season has to be erased by a new Teoscar in the outfield where he gets good jumps on the ball and then gets to it and catches it. Great throws to home would help. But Teoscar has to hit righties and lefties this spring and stop whiffing on pitches from righties to beat out Marisnick. He has gets some help with Aoki in the WBC for Japan, so he will get more looks.
Moran needs to rake at the plate and look great at 1B in the spring to have a shot. He’s already a decent third baseman, so being accomplished at 1B gives him a boost. Some HRs could be his best friends. I think he needs to be a more blended member of this team, be more outgoing, stop being so dark and shed the rap he has about not having any power.
With Preston’s injury I don’t see how he makes this team out of ST.
I think Aoki sends Kemp back to AAA this spring. If Kemp rocks it in AAA I think he has a shot in 2018.
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Another player – area of improvement – Tony Sipp
After 2 solid seasons in the bullpen – Tony got paid last season and he paid off dividends….for the opposing team. He had troubles getting righties out (.310 BA / 1.012 OPS) / he had trouble getting lefties out (.284/.894). He got tattooed when they swung at the first pitch (.474 BA/1.476 OPS) he got tattooed when he got behind in the count (3-1 count – .500 / 1.857). He gave up almost 4 more hits per 9 IP than in 2015 and he was 3 times more likely to give up a HR in 2016 vs. 2015.
He walked more, struck out less. He pitched like he was hiding something ala Dallas Keuchel.
He needs to turn it around because he was a good part of this bullpen until last season.
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This is a very well done Fanpost: http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2017/2/20/14666606/lets-talk-about-chris-devenski
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Good research and an interesting read. I think if you dropped Devenski’s one poor start (2 IP 6 ERs) from early in the season that his first half and second half would be a lot closer to each other stat-wise.
It is a real question whether he would succeed in the rotation like he did in the pen. I am OK with them starting him in the pen and move him to the rotation only if needed.
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Fresno line-up to start the year:
2B – Tony Kemp
LF- Teoscar Hernandez/Alejandro Garcia
CF – Derek Fisher
1B – A.J. Reed
DH – Jon Singleton/T. White [maybe Preston Tucker, but PTuck prob at CC]
3B – Colin Moran
RF – Jon Kemmer
C – Juan Centeno/Tyler Heineman
SS – Reid Brignac/Jack Mayfield
Fresno Rotation:
Paulino
Rodgers
K. Yuhl
E. Frias
T. Perez
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Interesting set of folks Mr. Bill. It includes the hopefuls like Paulino, the lost souls like Singleton, the blocked like Moran, the under the radar like Kemmer, etc.
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Martes?
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It could be. But with the strength of the Fresno rotation, I figure the organization wants to start Martes off in Corpus Christi and promote him to the Astros with great fanfare after he blows the AA competition away, the moment we need a fresh arm to replace a veteran starter who is either injured or seriously struggling. See the history of McCullers, Lance Jr., circa 2015.
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Andrew Aplin
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What a horrible year Andrew had last year – at the worst possible time. Now he’s 25 y/o – has no power, and is basically a poor man’s Jake Marisnick [ceiling is as a late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner]. Unless we trade Marisnick, Aplin is so far behind not only the current starters, but also Teo Hernandez, Jon Kemmer, Ramon Laureano, Alejandro Garcia, and probably even Kemp that at present, absent a Hunter Pence quality ST from Appy, I expect him to be released before the season starts.
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Corpus Christi line-up to start the year:
SS – Mott Hyde/Antonio Nunez
CF – Ramon Laureano/Bobby Boyd
LF – Drew Ferguson/James Ramsey
DH – Preston Tucker/Chase McDonald
RF – Kyle Tucker
C – Garrett Stubbs/Tanner Murphy
3B – J.D Davis
2B – Nick Tanielu
1B – Conrad Gregor
Rotation:
Frances Martes
Cy Sneed
Trent Thornton
Rogelio Armenteros
Dean Deetz
Kent Emmauel [lefty]
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Remember Nick tore his ACL, so ex-Ga Tech Mott Hyde will play 2B?
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Right you are, Gov. Might also give Forrest Wall or Josh Fuentes a shot at the CC opening day roster.
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Is Peacock the next Straily giveaway?
Other than the truly lost in space Singleton, are there any guys we’re hoping will have a superb Spring – not so we can keep them! – but to gain trade value? Stassi? Reed?
This came to mind today. Paul Konerko (#14th best 1B All Time) was passed on by Reds and Dodgers – a late bloomer. I think with an excelerated training program AJ Reed could be that type of players, perhaps. I’m leaning toward giving him a long leash, timeline. The Gurriel move and subsequent logjam at 1B coincides.
________
What were we talking about today?
Those MiLB rotations looked stacked (T Perez already in Fresno?)
Will we ever be paid back for Villar’s 2016 season, Mr Sneed?
The best news this season has to be F Perez gaining 10mph, and having 5 of the Top 91 picks to develop with Dyer Miller, Strom & Co.
_________
That Betances arbitration article in FanGraphs talks about how Closer-type pitchers are being used in higher leverage situations maybe in the 6th (Indians, Miller), but not being compensated for it. What I like about the Astros is we have a cheap, team controlled bullpen that plays well to the higher paid guys taking over for Giles when he lapses. It lends itself to earning your keep.
The three guys that top that list with most to prove; Sipp, Fiers and probably Gurriel. They all have a chance to recapture form, or be supplanted.
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Since you brought up Betances, I thought Will Harris is a pretty good parallel. Both were used until their arms fell off in 2015/2016 and faded late in the year. Both get lower salaries than closers even though they pitched, perhaps, the higher leverage spots for their teams.
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Exactly. This year: Feliz, Devo, Musgrove, Gregerson?
The more that Hinch plays the hot hand for high leverage, the more they take advantage of cheaper options; and, use starters at will after 90+ pitch counts having potentially three longmen.
An interesting note on our philosophy, Jankowski’s always been a starter til last mid season. He had an adjustment to pitching every other day, and this offseason brought a dilemna for how he thought the Astros (McCracken) wanted him prepared.
https://www.google.com/amp/climbingtalshill.com/2016/02/02/houston-astros-talking-stros-with-fresno-poy-jordan-jankowski/amp/?client=safari
We used Harris Gregerson and Giles as Closer, but as I look at contracts, only Giles has incentives, until this year’s new Harris deal. Smart agent!
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That was 2015 Jankowski, correction. Safe to say, he made the adjustment nicely last year.. and the team didn’t seem to mind how he got his innings in the offseason. Curious.
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Enjoyed the article though it drives me mad they couldn’t spell Pittsburgh right – twice.
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I’m hoping Peacock is lights out. We invested in him and it would be great if he turned into the pitcher we had always hoped for. He is a year removed from his surgery and this spring is make it or break it time for him with the Astros.
It is all a matter of command and control with him.
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i like all of these postive stories we have been seeing. white working hard to improve and now one on reed
http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-A-J-Reed-to-get-a-lot-of-playing-time-10946099.php
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positive …. i shud pruff reed mor ofin
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1OP, I want to comment on a couple items you posted above. 1. Correa taking the first pitch for a strike. With him hitting 4th and Altuve 3rd, Jose was on base over 40%+/- of the time. So he was almost forced to take a pitch to see if he could steal second. Batting Altuve 1st changes that dynamic, and puts pressure on the 2nd hitter to take extra pitches. I think Reddick and Aoki do that job better, but did not bother to look up their stats with 2 strikes. 2. Altuve believed it was his job to lead the team and win the game. As the game went on, perhaps it was “pressure to win” and not being tired that dropped his average. To me, he has no need to be swinging for the fences with the power guys coming up behind him this year. Both of these are speculation on my part, but I see this team constructed much better this year to use the talents of each player.
Finally, if Beltran leads off and Altuve bats ninth because of some stupid stat sheet, then we can all throw away our opinions.
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Want to go a little off topic and give a story. I just watched “42” for the 3rd or 5th time. About 1950 When I was 5 or 6, my grandfather, my father, and I would listen to the baseball games on the car radio at times. (For you youngsters back in East Texas, no TV and poor quality newspaper photos, and me being young — all players looked alike in my mind) The Brooklyn Dodgers were playing and Jackie Robinson was hit by a pitch. He was briefly out cold at home plate. One of the adults said, they “beaned” him. When I asked what it meant and why, they explained “because he is Jackie Robinson.” Again, being very young, I asked why him. That brought a response of ” ^$&*##@. I just told you, he is Jackie Robinson.”
This country may not be where it should be, but it has come such a long way from those days.
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Powerful message, AC! “They all look alike in my mind.”
For what it’s worth, I’ve yelled, “Earhole him!!” on many occasions (Lidge v Pujols, etc.), but what helps me sleep is knowing I was only prejudice of the uniform colors😉
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Cannot deny the non stop energy this guy brings!
https://mobile.twitter.com/astros/status/833851608832286720/photo/1
Hinch sold on JFSF bringing out George’s best bc apparently his antics are a team soother. But Every fan is waiting for Marisnick to get serious … and rake.
https://mobile.twitter.com/astros/status/833801335350898688?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Not everyone has got time to sit around and watch a game like this; Fiers vs Graveman (throwing whiffle balls) in mid-July when we were starting to play well.
Long story short, Fiers looked good early on – a few notable stats were that in 24 Astronaut appearances, Fiers was 8-4 with a 3.6 ERA – and his first time to face Reddick (who eventually went 2 for 4), toyed with him. There seems to be this lapse, if you will – let’s call it the Tim Redding Effect [or Pete Munro], where a guy looks real good until he doesn’t.
Now you read this article, and as I said, hand Chris the ball #5 and don’t look back..
https://www.google.com/amp/ftw.usatoday.com/2017/02/houston-astros-chris-devenski-good-spring-training-role-starter-bullpen-mlb/amp?client=safari
Lot of really smart men, like Old Pro 1 say that Feliz and Devo are solid in the pen.
This issue, to me, makes or breaks a season.. knowing when to release the Dragon and how to countervail the opponents’ adjustments. The Astros tinkerers are all at work to bring you the next Toy Cannon, or (Bill) – take it from here? There’s got to be a song about this year’s Hopes & Dreams?
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Areas of improvement, Alex Bregman:
Strike out less-24%
Walk more-6.9%
But! If you can’t walk more, continue to do this:
When swinging at the first pitch your slash line was .455/.441/.818/1.259
This is why I like Bregman in the #6 spot in front of McCann/Gattis and then Gurriel in the #8 spot. Bregman starts fires!
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The fire starter in any part of this lineup – a fluid game..
Maybe too much is made of the number in the order, even by the players? Op, much as I respect your opinion, Bregman himself believes Hinch slotting him #2, despite debut/slump was the turning point in retrospect.
They say if a player believes that a streak has to do with that vote of confidence, then it’s Mgr’s job to impart it when needed. For the team, not the player.
Our excitement that Bregman’s springboard to hit now wherever in a stacked lineup bc he’s proven it to himself … he belongs.
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Last year there were questions everywhere. This season it seems we are set at every position. Hinch may be banking on what he did last year to work this year, but this is a completely different team. If you have all nine positions manned by players who are either good or very good, you have to shape that lineup to be good from top to bottom.
Last year he had hitters in the 1-4 spots. This year’s lineup is different and Hinch needs to be better at what he does to go from a third place team in their division to a world championship. He has got to coach this year’s team, not last year’s team. The sooner he and the players get their heads around that, the better things will be.
Let’s not do the same things we did as an 84-78 team. Make the right moves and be 95-67. I’m sorry, Gov, last year is done for me.
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Gov –
Ironic that you put up the Devenski link because I was just in the middle of trying to put up an “area to improve” for him. This was really tough.
The guy was so spectacularly good all season.
Here’s one – in his 4 wins he had a 13.00 K / BB ratio – in his 4 losses he had a 1.83 K / BB ratio. In other words – stay away from umpires who won’t give you strikes??
I want to throw out one set of stats for Devo that I find unworldly.
When he had 2 strikes on a batter (and that can mean everything from 0-2 to 3-2) this is how they hit against him.
.134 BA / .175 OBP / .189 SLG / . 364 OPS
Talk about killer instincts – that is just dominant.
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The umpire comment goes to my conspiracy theories, no less? I got a kick out of it anyway Lol!
It is rather hard to explain though unless you put as much stock as I do in getting the marginal strike calls, that a pitcher can literally lose his cool ala Wojo and Peacock. It takes a certain kind of competitor to overcome all obstacles, including the umps. We’re still searching for a Quintana type of consistency, but even the best over a long haul have bad outings.
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I have supported putting Devenski in the rotation, but am concerned that his ability to get players out on pitches that look like strikes will diminish the more times they see him.
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What am I looking for from Josh Reddick offensively in 2017?
BA – .275 or higher
OBP – .340 or higher
HR – 25 or more
2B – 25 or more
RBI – 75 or more [depending on where he bats in the line-up]
Ks – no more than 15% of plate appearances
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In other words, at age 30, you’re looking for him to turn in the second best season of his career?
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He should have by far the best line-up around him he’s ever had in his career. I hope he will respond to the excellence around him and rise to the occasion. If he does better than I have set out as minimum expectations to make his signing a positive thing – GREAT!
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I’m Debbie Downer today, but I only see Altuve and Correa as certainties in our lineup. McCann and Gattis could both fall off a cliff and be Chris Carter without the HR production. We keep saying Bregman is the next Dustin Pedroia, but he could also be the next Gordan Beckham. Gurriel has something to prove. Aoki and Beltran, well, I like both but I’ve read a lot about ages and declines. Springer is probably my favorite player to watch, but we all know he is capable of amazing feats and stretches of frustration. Finally, JFSF needs no introduction. In conclusion, nothing on paper matters now. The players have to play up to their strength and not down to our coaching.
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Jeez Devin I feel like I need to give you a virtual hug. Will all the guys play up to their best? Probably not but even if some are down a bit they will still give you better than the ABs they threw away on Gomez, Rasmus, and all the guys I chided in my last point in the post.
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Dan, would that be enough to be better than some of the Boston and Oakland lineups Reddick played with?
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Yes.
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Ok, looking back, the 2011 Red Sox had Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youklis, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, JD Drew, David Ortiz. The lineups he played with in Oakland were not as good as I thought – a couple good hitters each year and a lot of mediocrity. Let’s hope you guys are right about this year’s Astros lineup!
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What am I looking for from Carlos Beltran offensively in 2017?
BA – .285 or higher
OBP – .345 or higher
HR – 28 or more
2B – 30 or more
RBI – 90 or more
Ks – no more than 18% of plate appearances
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Beltran has been incredibly consistent in the power department, in both HR, and slugging in general. He has not been consistent in average. He seems as likely to hit .260 – and he has dipped as low as .233 recently – as he does .295. With a general decline in his BB% I think he probably doesn’t see the ball as well as he did 5-7 years ago, which should make him more prone to striking out, but that hasn’t started (yet). A repeat of last season would be great, but when a guy is 40 the Astros should have a strong plan B if he starts struggling some in July and needs days off – which I think they do.
I’m happy for his sakes that the Astros spend a lot of July and August with the roof on and some AC in there. Should help keep those older legs fresher for when it really matters.
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What am I looking for from Carlos Correa offensively in 2017?
BA – .300 or higher
OBP – .360 or higher
HR – 30 or higher
2B – 35 or higher
RBI – 110 or higher
Ks – no more than 20%
Yes, I am expecting a break-out year.
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I like all three of these, but this is the one I am waiting for big time – I think with the better lineup and protection behind him, young Carlos will rake big time.
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Right-o, Dan. Having legit bats behind CC is gonna be huge. As I’ve said before, the synergies in this lineup are are going to feed on each other and make for a very fun summer.
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A little bit of a mind blow – Roy Oswalt who has been out of the game since 2013 was in camp talking to the young guys. Roy O is 4 months younger than Carlos Beltran….
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Jeez…that’s as bad as the fact that Hunter Pence has played for other teams longer than he played for us.
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What am I looking for from Jose Altuve offensively in 2017?
BA – .335 or higher
OBP – .375 or higher
HR – 20 or higher
2B – 45 or higher
RBI – 70 or higher [hoping he is leading off most of the year; if he’s hitting third, he should exceed 100]
Ks – no more than 10%
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What I am looking for from George Springer offensively in 2017?
BA – .275 or higher
OBP – .360 or higher
HR – 27 or more
2B – 35 or more
RBI – 80 or higher [unless he’s leading off, in which case 65 or more]
Ks – no more than 21%
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What I am looking for from Alex Bregman offensively in 2017?
BA – .260 or higher
OBP – .333 or higher
HR – 15 or more
2B – 35 or more
RBI – 65 or higher
Ks – no more than 20%
SBs – 10 or more
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I would sound greedy if I said this would be disappointing for Bregman who put up 8 HR and 34 RBIs in only 200 ABs last season, but he could have a little sophomore slump as he learns to adjust to adjustments.
But if ….. you could actually project his 2016 numbers over 600 ABs – that would be a 24 HR 100 RBI guy.
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If he doesn’t have a sophomore slump of some variety, I’ll be tickled pink – but quite surprised. This kid is still very YOUNG and absolutely flew through the minors. The first 26 or so at bats showed he can look every bit as bad as George Springer.
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And for the record, all I mean by the George Springer remark is that George is super streaky at the plate. When he’s good, he’s All-Star good. But when he’s cold, well, he could play in the WBC for Antarctica.
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What I am looking for from Yulieski Gurriel offensively in 2017?
BA – .265 or higher
OBP – .300 or higher
HR – 10 or more
2B – 20 or more
RBI – 50 or higher
Ks – no more than 20%
Still not sure what Yuli is going to be able to do over the course of a grueling season.
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Hinch talks a lot about nobody nailing down 1B like “he’d hoped”, but it remains a position they (Luhnow) still like to platoon. A case in point was the game I linked earlier, Blummer mentions that Fiers pickoff wouldn’t gotten (Crisp) in with a lefty glove. Hinch mentions Reed’s footwork and lack of versatility in other defensive positions as deterrents – meaning, the team wants another corner infielder on defense and a power and contact hitter on offense. Good luck finding that one guy, right? It would be Marwin from switch hitting / fielding / team chemistry standpoint, but Gurriel brings more power and even better D.
Because we have 4 Right-handed Starters, teams will counter with their lefty lineup, so there’s more demand for a better-fielding 1B.
Regardless of the lip service, even if Reed was the masher he’s been in the minors, we still have to find a place for Gurriel, and keep a righty bat vs lefty days.
If White forces his way on as a starter, that’s actually not a great problem to have … because then we have to trade Gurriel. And I doubt he’s established enough to be able to move yet.
What comes to mind though is Gurriel will hit!
And so will Laureano, Teoscar, Fisher and Kemmer. We’re not going to be a team of fading, old stars, as Devin was opining. I think we’ll see more talent than we can possibly plug-in.
Being able to spread that out over a long season – patience in letting things settle themselves, we’re in a really good place right now.
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Man Bill, sounds like you are expecting 900 runs! I’ll take it!
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I think we could get pretty close. I just hope our pitchers don’t give up 950.
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In other words, color me unimpressed by our starting pitching, and particularly concerned about today’s announcement that neither Keuchel, McCullers, and McHugh will be allowed to throw to a live batter until March. I have not found much that I agree with that Mr. Strom has done lately. With the new strike zone – even worse than last year – these guys need to get very, very used to threading the needle before the games get serious. Last year they did this with Keuchel and McCullers, holding them out from even 1 or 2 inning competition, and neither either healthy or ready when the season started. Now they are playing the same dangerous game with McHugh.
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I have higher expectations for him than that. I know Luhnow does. If that’s all he provides, other guys will get a chance to win that job at some point.
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Especially for that amount of money
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I have higher hopes for him, for sure – because if there are two things he isn’t, they are; 1. cheap; and 2. trade-able. My expectations for him have to be guarded at the present, because he just never got his highly-touted bat going last year – even in the minors. But comparing the minimum production level I mentioned as expecting from him to our 1B production last year, I still feel pretty good – especially since we still have the guy who produced most at 1B for us last year [Margo] available in a reserve role, AND because if he falters we have several guys in our organization [White, Reed, and even Moran] who have the capability of winning his job at some point in 2017.
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https://www.google.com/amp/www.courant.com/sports/hc-jacobs-column-0515-20160514-column,amp.html?client=safari
When you read about our players’ vision to give back, that it’s part of their fabric and not just a photo op, then it makes sense they’re leading on the field too.
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Meant to ask, Bill, how did we acquire Forrest Wall? Thanks
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So . . . does Charlie Morton start Friday vs. Detroit, or what?
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I hand it to Paulino for sweet revenge v Tigers…
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Gov: Mexico paid for him?
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An entertaining read. I enjoyed the intro to the Rangers!
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/how-they-got-here-can-an-al-west-frontrunner-finally-win-a-world-series/?utm_source=vicesportstwitter
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That was a good read, but George Springer is not 25. It would be great if he was, but they missed his age by 2 years.
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Brad Peacock gets the first start, in order of
Rodgers
Musgrove
Fiers
Devenski
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Guess this means Paulino, nor Martes are in the mix for #5 starter. Yet!
Of this group, I’m pulling for Musgrove.
By June, I can see Paulino Gustave and Feliz as other possible replacements.
DK
LMJ
Musgrove
Devenski
Martes
[I may need a *too forward thinking clause?]
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That order tells me they have pretty securely slotted in Charlie Morton for the 4th spot in the rotation. They think they’ve cured his inability to get lefties out. That means they are probably looking at a rotation of Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Morton, and probably Peacock [since he’s out of options]. If Peacock doesn’t dazzle, however, it could quickly devolve into a ‘winner take all’ competition between Peacock, Fiers, Musgrove, Rodgers, and Devenski. If it comes down to a ‘winner take all’ between those five guys, my money is on Joe Musgrove.
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Just for fun, consider if the rotation included McCullers, McHugh, Morton and Musgrove. We could call the last four spots the M & M & M & Ms. Say that five times . . . .
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Add Martes by the end of the year and its the Killer M’s…..
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Already thought of this, so call him Mighty Keuchel and it’s a lock I’m fully on board to begin!
Mighty Keuchel
McQ
McCullers
Musgrove
Morton
Will be plenty good with Fiers Devo Feliz waiting in wings.
Tony Sipp finds an injury and we still get Hoyt. Will Harris is our loogy.
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I don’t think Peacock will make this rotation, he just doesn’t have a lot of command. I do not blame the Astros for giving him multiple starts this spring to show us that though since it will be a situation where he is cut. If he is designated he most certainly is a good enough pitcher that someone, probably multiple someones, will take the flier.
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Peacock gets a job because he’s out of options? I don’t buy that concept Bill. Based on the offense they’ve put together, 2017 is being taken far too seriously to hand over the job, even for a half dozen starts. He’ll have to have a very solid Spring for real consideration.
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Devin –
The way I look at the hitting prospects for 2017 is this.
– In 2016 they got good production out of SS, 2B, RF and 3B (Valbuena + Bregman) and part of the C spot (Gattis)
– In 2016 they got bad production out of DH, 1B, CF and LF and a big chunk of the C spot (Castro)
– Assuming they continue to get good where they had it in 2016 (and I think Correa and Springer could improve) – They have a shot at better production at the other 4-1/2 spots based on what they brought in. If they only get it in 2 or 3 of the spots that would still be a lot of improvement.
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There’s one guy I have a serious … [hankering] to get the better of in 2017?
I’d like to know your answers.
Odor?
Beltre?
Lorenzo Cain?
Whomever we send to the mound needs to be able to beat this guy.
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Odor for sure. Beltre for sure. Every other Texas Ranger hitter for sure. Robinson Cano for sure. Albert Pujols and Mike Trout for sure.
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They say there’s more to the M’s than Robbie Cano during the Dipoto era.
He was the one guy I saw hit Devo’s changeup on the button, but he had to be sitting on it(?). Pure talent otherwise.
We’ll have a stiff test early.. I wonder if they forego Gallardo in game 3, bc we’ll crush him! Smyly, maybe make us regret not grabbing him?
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Canon should have never seen a strike in some of those at bats against us last year – put that on the skipper.
Odor can stink it up for 8 innings, but give him a chance to deliver in the 9th/extras and he seems to. Strategy is keep guys off base in front of him.
We do not have the arms to exploit Trout’s weakest area. Grin and bare it.
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Beat these guys or bean these guys?
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Chin music never hurt anyone. They say Starling Marte has a penchant for getting HBP. I’d see how he fares around the gourd first. Like the link I sent Fiers, did a 2-strike fly-by, then froze the A’s stud for strike three. Throwing at someone is an act, you better be able to “play it off”, like you’re sort of sorry. Then when the dagger comes next pitch, you know the precedent was no accident. Then you realize they had a plan for you the whole time!
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There’s probably a Brady Rule in baseball for Mike Trout, though – dontcha think? Like if you bean him, you’re permanently Pete Rose’d?
Not like the old days when you just threw at the first up, whomever it was?
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What am I looking for from Brian McCann offensively in 2017?
BA – .225 or a little higher
OBP – flirt with .300
HR – 12 or more
2B – 10 or more
RBI – around 40
Ks – no more than 22%
I am, obviously, not expecting Brian to handle the transition to a new team and a totally different pitching staff very well. I think he is going to be our weakest offensive link [except, of course, in games where Jake Marisnick is playing].
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What am I looking for from Evan Gattis offensively in 2017?
BA – .235 or a little higher
OBP – flirt with .300
HR – 20 or more
2B – 15 or more
RBI – around 40
Ks – no more than 22%
I am, obviously, not as high on Evan as the F.O. or some of my fellow bloggers.
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That would be the worst year of Gattis and McCann’s careers by a large margin, esp. that low RBI total.
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I am fully aware.
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As for the low RBIs, I am not expecting either McCann or Gattis to hit in a high-RBI position in the line-up. That should be reserved for Correa, Beltran, Springer, and Reddick. I’m slotting both of our catchers in at #7 – at a point where the bases will often be cleared by the preceding batter. And I would NEVER use Gattis as my DH.
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Yeah, it just dawned on me that they’re platooning. So that’s about 80 RBIs total.
Sad part is, each one individually would be outperforming Castro.
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What am I looking for from Nori Aoki offensively in 2017?
BA – .280 or a little higher
OBP – .333 or higher
HR – 1
2B – 25 or more if he starts 120 or more games
RBI – around 30 if he starts 120 or more games
Ks – no more than 12.5%
Runs scored – 65 or more if he starts 120 or more games
I am not sure we can keep Nori on the field – or that A.J. Hinch can resist the temptation to slot either Marisnick or Beltran into left field to start at least every third game.
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If Aoki is on the team, starts 120 games and bats 9th in the order he is going to hit more home runs and have twice as many RBIs as you predict.
Last season he led off mostly for the Mariners and that is why he had few RBIs. He hit in a huge Safeco field but will be hitting in MMP with a short fence, short foul line and a much shorter right center field porch. If he hits .280, he’s going to have RBIs because he is going to have guys on base.
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My question is why did Aoki get cut by Mariners? Dyson or Haniger do not look like an improvement. So does Seattle know something that we don’t ?? He looks like a good player in front of Cano, Cruz and Seager.
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Because of Jerry Depoto. He didn’t want to pay $6 million for a 35 year old corner outfielder who didn’t have the power to hit home runs in a huge ballpark.
It so happens the Astros were looking for a corner outfielder who had high OBP and could get on base from the bottom part of the order and who hits LH to help balance out the lineup. Aoki still has some speed and that and an arm that is only average he is a perfect fit for MMP.
The Astros were 29th in all of baseball in OBP and runs scored by their left fielders.
Houston was 14th out of 15 AL teams last year in batting average from the #9 spot in the order. They just got a lot better in all those areas in 2017 with Aoki playing LF and batting ninth.
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I expect slightly better numbers. I think you can prop up that OBP to .345, and even that would be a career worst. He has been incredibly consistent.
I get that some want him in there for the table setting aspect, a 9 hitter with a .345 OBP is appealing, but I am not sure its worth the trade off in complete lack of slugging, where he always sits below .400. Still, no better options at the moment. A right handed bat that could hit like a 2015 level Tucker, not great but good at times, would be a plus. Marisnick is not that answer.
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Houston had 176 Ks from the #9 position in the order last season. How much of a difference would it make if Aoki was in the #9 spot this season. His batting average from last season of .283 would jump our #9 battting average from among the worst to the best #9 batting average in baseball, which was had by the Red Sox, at .281.
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