10 questions Astros must address in spring training

Now that “other” sport is dead and gone for another year (Unbelievable Super Bowl – but did anyone else think it was an almost WWE fixed final half of the game?), the folks who don’t watch basketball can get revved up for the return of baseball. The Houston Astros’ pitchers and catchers report a week from Wednesday (Yaaaayyyy!) with the position players reporting a week from Friday (Yaaaayyy!!!). And while the Astros go to camp with plenty of professional parts to mix and match in 2017, there are definitely open questions for them to hopefully address before opening night against the Mariners on April 3rd. Here are ten questions the fans hope are answered heading into the season.

  1. Will Dallas Keuchel V.2015 or V.2016 show up? Keuchel was insanely good in 2015 and pretty bad in 2016, dropping sharply in almost every important category (2.48 ERA to 4.55) / (1.017 WHIP to 1.286) / (8.4 K/9 IP to 7.7) / (4.24 K/BB to 3.00). Was it the nondescript “injury” he hid or was it the change in strike zone by the umpires?
  2. Can young Lance McCullers Jr. stay healthy? He looks to have TOR stuff with a high velocity fastball and a devastating curveball, but he can’t throw either while on the DL.
  3. Who’s on first? In 2016, the Astros’ first basemen were last in the AL in RBIs (62) and next to last in HRs (19).  With Luis Valbuena gone, the biggest holdover at 1B is Marwin Gonzalez, who is not going to help those numbers by playing a lot of 1B. So, will this be the regular spot for Yulieski Gurriel, who has 5 games at 1B under his belt? Or MarGo? Or more of A.J. Reed and/or Tyler White?
  4. Who’s first? George Springer was in the lead off spot for 116 games for the Astros and had solid numbers (.261 BA/.362 OBP/.816 OPS). Jose Altuve was lead off for 44 games and was terrific (.330/.415/1.000). Will the Astros do the right thing and get the best hitter in the majors the most ABs possible?
  5. Can Devo whip it up again? As a long reliever strategic weapon Chris Devenski was tremendous. His stats as a reliever only …. 1.61 ERA/ 0.813 WHIP / 6.92 K per BB / .194 BA against  were nails. So, the question is – will the Astros try to move him into the starting rotation or keep him in the ‘pen and hope for more of the same.
  6. What does closing time look like? Ken Giles was brought here to close and after some early season floundering he did just that. Will he be THE closer? Will they rotate him with whoever might have a hot hand like Luke Gregerson or Will Harris?
  7. Will youth be served? The Astros had a broad range of players make their major league debuts in 2016, which covered a broad range of results from Devo great to A.J. Reed smelly. Alex Bregman, Joseph Musgrove, Gurriel (OK only a yute in that he had not made the majors before), Devenski, Tyler White, Reed, Tony Kemp, David Paulino, Jandel Gustave, Brady Rodgers,  James Hoyt, Colin Moran and Teoscar Hernandez all appeared in games in 2016. Most of these folks will not start the season with the big club and some of them will never get another shot this season. Who will bring value to the Astros? Which other kids will get a shot at the big club?
  8. What’s left? The Astros’ LFs were poor offensive performers in 2016. This season promises to have some kind of combination of Nori Aoki, Jake Marisnick or Teoscar Hernandez or Preston Tucker or even some spot starts from half octogenarian Carlos Beltran. Will it be better or just different in 2017?
  9. Can Gattis be Evan better? Evan Gattis‘ stats for 2016 seem to be begging for him to be used a certain way. His numbers as a catcher (.295 BA / .992 OPS) were far superior to his numbers as a DH (.219/.709). Similarly he was much better against lefty pitching (.288/.886) than he was against RHPs (.230/.795). With lefty catcher Brian McCann getting the bulk of the starts as a catcher and Beltran as a DH will the Astros more judiciously use Gattis?
  10. Who fills out the rotation? The best guess is that Keuchel, McCullers and Collin McHugh lead off the rotation. Who will take the 4th and 5th spots from among Musgrove, Mike Fiers, Charlie Morton, Feliz and Devenski?

What do you think about these questions and what are you most looking forward to finding out during spring training?

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152 responses to “10 questions Astros must address in spring training”

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  1. Methinks ’tis always fixed…WHEN, it suits The Masters’ suite schemes and/or whims.
    Shakespeare’s, Twlefth Night

    Yes the SB is rigged, go back to Broadway Joe’s guarantee (Morrall’s 3 Int’s?), or 9/11 and the “Patriots” winning, or how about when the lights went off and the other Harbaugh won .. Sunday’s game was obvious. But hey entertaining, and that’s their business. I always leave room in my thinking for “possibilities,” that incidentally I’m not the first to notice.

    Now, so much to cover, Dan…
    1. Either Keuchel fell on the sword (for the team) and claimed he was battling pain all year, or he had to come up with *some explanation for his dropoff last year. What I suspect is he lacked range of motion bc of some pain. I noticed he had far less movement & guys were swinging under his cutter and curve! Not getting strike calls is huge, which may also have been an Umpire reaction to the thought of getting duped by one of the best pitch framers in Castro. Keuchel isnt like Clemens, who would stare down the ump until he got his call. For these reasons, I expect a move toward the median of 2015, 2016.
    2. Another of Boras’ clients (who stipulated his client, Matt Harvey limit to 180IP), McCullers may well be held back. There’s a raging debate on whether “saving their arm,” or “overuse” is a viable concern vs pushing yourself to game speed. With Lance, we’re all in hushed breath, waiting to see. He sure looks ready to me this season having fun, instead of going apey over a ridiculous offseason workout program.
    3. Im just not worried at all about 1B! It will settle itself with plenty of help on the way. The alternatives would’ve been strikeout machines in Trumbo and Carter.. I consider first base more of a defensive position until we can find that multi-tool combination. Gurriel will be just fine.
    4. Op’s got me fired up about this one – Altuve in the #1 hole! The more I think about it though, the more I can see 1-5 (especially) being quite interchangeable.
    5. I read yesterday someone who wrote, “I’ve seen Devo pitch 70-80 pitches and he was gassed.” I’m sure the Astros have an ear to the ground on this, and that is why they were cautious saying they will “try to stretch him out” in the Spring. The real question here is a team’s willingness to go ahead and slot innings for the likes of Musgrove/Feliz and Devo. If all of those guys are on a wait-and-see how the other SP’s do, that’s wrong thinking. It’s my opinion that Spring is an open tryout, at least letting the vets know that nothing is fixed – better play wins out.

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  2. OK These multiple question one s hard to crystal ball.

    1 DK I ha ve stated many time here I’s afraid he was a one hit wonder, I think he will be close to a .500 pitcher this year. If MLB decides to shrink the strike zone, then he is really in trouble.

    2. LMJ healthy is our number 1, but who knows on health issues

    3. I’m hoping Gurriel is the guy at 1B 70% of the time

    4. Altuve needs to lead off 80% of the games, nor Springer

    5..Love Devo, ST should tell us if he can be starter or the best long reliever in baseball.

    6. Hoping Giles shows he is the main closer in ST, if not we have great options there.

    7. Youth Martes and Gustave might be the guys this year. Maybe White.

    8. Platooning Aoki and JFSM should be a major upgrade in left , who will be the 5th O,F or is that Beltran once in a while?

    9 Gattis if he can be Gattis of the second half of last year, be great for us.

    10 I’m Going with Muskrat love.

    I have to go with Dave, Starting Pitching could be our Achilles heal

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    • I really was not – the Falcons defense spent way too much time on the field even before the big rally and were gassed. Their offensive coordinator was trying to be the genius instead of playing it safe (I could picture Buddy Ryan taking a swing at Kevin Gilbride). The more experienced team made all the plays down the stretch and the Falcons just could not make the one play they needed (though if the genius had just run the ball and kicked a FG, the great catch by Julio Jones would have been that one play).
      I did not like the way the game went, but the Pats kept their cool and did what they always do – find a way to win.

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      • I’m going to agree. I kept thinking during the game – what if one of the officials went rogue and started calling offensive pass interference every time a Patriots receiver picked or engaged a defender in a block before the pass was completed? Would NE have started running the ball for lack of options in their playbook?

        FWIW, I have the same complaints about baseball and certain rules not being enforced correctly.

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    • Diane, a trillion dollar industry left to … “chance”? It’s just as plausible there are monetary competing interests that determine the outcome, than what meets the eye. A good example in the SB on the most important play of the game, the Pats needed a 2-pt. conversion and Atl lines up AND jumps offsides for good measure to give them A FREE PLAY? It’s almost laughable.
      But there’s plenty of documentation should you care to scan.

      I don’t get hung up on conspiracy, I’m just telling ya what I see and have read. Fighters taking a fall, the ’09 Series, Nero burning the city. Nothing new under the sun.

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  4. 1. Probably something in between
    2. No, I doubt LMJ stays healthy. The goal should be having him healthy when it’s most meaningful
    3. Probably Marwin by mid-season
    4. Springer. Altuve stopped taking walks in June. Springer doesn’t swing out of the zone.
    5. Been waiting all winter to use that one?
    6. I think a lot like 2016. Giles struggles early and Harris/Gregerson get some chances. Ultimately they struggle and Giles gets another chance.
    7. Youth make appearances on 25 man based on injuries.
    8. I’d add Bregman into the mix…unless he’s spent all winter working on his defense
    9. I’m leaning no, but there is the chance he stays healthier/stronger by getting more rest and is used strategically. 2016 looks like a career year for him.
    10. I think Feliz and Devenski are sent to bullpen or AAA to start games. If Morton makes the team, Musgrove may go to AAA because they can option him. I doubt they eat the Fiers salary.

    I’m most interested in how Hinch/Luhnow approach the spring. Are they smart enough to know they narrowly missed the playoffs after not being prepared to start the season?

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    • Altuve stopped taking walks after June because he had been moved to the 3 spot to drive in runs. When he was leading off he walked more than he ever has in the past. That is why his OBP was HUGE in the first half of the season.
      When he got moved to the 3 spot he stopped attempting to steal, too. He had 21 SBs the first three months and 9 in the last three months. He also got caught a lot more in the #3 spot because he was thinking too much, whereas he just ran on instinct in the first half of the year.

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      • This is factually correct, but I don’t agree. August was his biggest month for driving in runs by far. June/July were only a couple better than April/May when he was hitting leadoff. September, well, he fell off a cliff.

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      • But your original comment was about his walks tailing off. They tailed off because he stopped taking walks out of the 3 spot. He needs to go back to leadoff where he will produce both OBP and RBIs because he will have real major league hitters at the bottom of the order, which he didn’t have last year.

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    • “Springer doesn’t swing out of the zone” is exactly what I see, too. Which is why you don’t see him fouling it off his ankles much..

      He’s got a great eye, tell ya that.

      I think everyone wonders if he loses much by becoming more of complete a hitter, dialing it down a notch, taking what they’re giving?

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  5. These are my opinions, not facts.
    1. I believe Keuchel was hurting. He is a man of few words and is not known as a BSer. I think he did not get rhythm and not enough work in ST and he injured himself trying to get the kinks out. I think the strike zone hurt him a little. He is a control wizard and he can adjust. I just don’t think he was sharp at all in the early part of the year. Look at his walks in game six last year against the Brewers. They killed him and it was the game that set the tone for the first 30 days of the season when the Astros blew their season.
    2. I think McCullers can stay healthy if he finds a healthy workout regimen and lears to know his body as he gets more experience. As he learns what certain batters will do, I think he can cut down on his pitch count. I would like to see him go for groundouts early in the count and go for K’s when he needs them. High strikeout pitchers throw more pitches. If he cannot cut down on his pitch count as a starter, he will make one of the best relievers in baseball.
    3. The problem with the Astros at first base last year was not just run production. It was BA and OBP. Gurriel can fix that. He had no clue what it was like to play six or seven games a weak. He had no way to stay in game shape after not playing in a long time. He pulled a hammy and had to take it easy last year. I expect to see a much better Gurriel on April Fools day. What I want from Gurriel is to bat in the 7 or 8 spot and score a ton of runs this year. Gurriel is a good baserunner and I hope to
    see a lot of that this season.
    4. You put the leadoff stats up there. Hinch’s blindness could hurt the Astros badly if he doesn’t follow the numbers.
    5. I think Devo will be doing the same job he did last year for the club, with a few late inning appearances to boot.
    6. I think Giles will close, with others to step in if he has trouble. A year with his new club and closing for a team in contention should help his nerves this year.
    7. There’s a chance White, Hernandez or Moran could win a spot out of ST. They are all on the 40-man. They will have to knock the crap out of the ball to make the team.
    8. I think Aoki gets most of the starts in LF because of his left handed bat, but I could see Jake or Teoscar getting ABs against lefties, or Gurriel moving to LF and White playing 1B against lefties.
    9. I think the Astros would like Gattie to play against LH starters. If he plays more this year than last, that means Beltran is not producing and that would hurt. If Beltran plays like Beltran, Gattis needs to play less.
    10. I’m pulling for the M’s to fill out the rotation. Beard, Lancelot, Dr. Who, Morton man and Musgrat. Wouldn’t be surprised if a Q was added in.

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      • It would be optimal if they took one of our BOR as part of a Q trade, but since there hasn’t been any dangling news (remember the Stros are quick to announce trades when they happen, but tight-lipped before), we’re probably going have to do a different package to unload elsewhere. I’m still holding out hope for Odorizzo later. A lefty is what we need and by passing on a Travis Wood, we’re only focused on frontline.

        The answer now though, Dan, is we have no idea whose got the hot hand.

        Devin, said he thought Giles would slow start but takeover. I agree, and I think we have to be open to others doing the same. We never would’ve benched Bagwell for all his Aprils!

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      • Keuchel, LMJ, Quintana, Musgrove McHugh. Morton to the pen with sinker and the 94 MPH fastball. Devo to join Morton as swing guys. Sipp, Giles, Gregerson, Harris and Hoyt in the bullpen. Gustave and Guduan in AAA along with Perez, Minnis and Jankowski in their bullpen ready to get a call.
        Feliz, Paulino, Rodgers, Martes and Holmes/Yuhl as starters. What a pitching staff Fresno could have.
        Fiers is still here if somebody gets injured.

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  7. 1. DK: He appeared at times to not be able to throw the ball where he wanted. Lets hope he returns to at least 80% of 2015.
    2. LMJ: Hard to guess. So far, the answer is no.
    3. 1st: I was surprised to see White sent down. As mentioned before, I missed watching April & May games. But his stats on Fangraphs are head scratchers. His BABIP was terrible even in AAA last year, while his walk rate went way down, and Ks way up. I wonder if he too was hurt.
    4. Leadoff: I would ask Altuve where he wants to bat, and let him do so.
    5. Devo: 48 games and 108 innings. I watched starters this year not last 2 innings with completely terrible stats. If he only lasts 2+ innings with those numbers, we should be in the lead.
    6. Giles.
    7. Youth: Position players – FA signings keep some on the farm or DFA. Pitchers – Neshak + Feldman – Morton opens up a slot unless another signing or trade.
    8. Aoki appears to start. Should be on base more. OF assists may increase because they will be rounding 2nd or 3rd on his arm.
    9. Gattis (to me) was a better catcher than Castro. Tandem with McCann should be above league average.
    10. Musgrove and Morton unless one or both stink it up in Spring. Fiers assumes Feldman’s role in bullpen. He will come in when game gets out of control by 3rd inning.

    Am excited AGAIN about ST. This is our year.

    (Once read an article about the difference between football coaches and baseball managers. Football talks about how improved the other teams are this year. How they lost so many great players. How tough the schedule is this year. All baseball managers start off saying we love our team, and are going to win, etc. etc)

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    • I don’t watch everything closely early in the year but I felt like White had a case of the “everything I’m swinging at is going out of the park – imagine if I start swinging harder and trying to pull the ball and pulling off the ball” blues.

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  8. No. 7 is my baby..
    I like Brady Rodgers to be ready to go out of the gate. He’s had some encouraging feedback in the offseason, and I like his chances to be a sleeper. Having said that, it only makes for tougher decisions about finding him starts.
    A real benchmark for our youth will be adding more to the Top 25 (3) under age 25 next season. We should double it.
    I like all the guys you mentioned, Dan; Gustave, White, Hoyt to make more than talked about/significant contributions. And that’s why Top to Bottom (40-man), we rank among the elite.

    One guy I disagree with on Keith Law’s new rankings is Daz Cameron at #9. There seems to be a consensus among scouts this year he’ll bounce back in a major way. But I have to give Law credit for having ranked Musgrove way ahead of others last season.

    His pick of Laureano has to be a wake up call that he’s on the fast track. If Ramon solidifies early, like Martes, <— people say no way way because our loaded outfield and rotation, but we may have a real youth movement underway. Take this argument to the extreme, and we may actually (cough, cough) see Altuve Springer and/or Keuchel as expendable (Sierra, Nova, Tucker) soon after 2018. Imagine the haul to keep youth alive by just trading a few of our core? [that ought to get a rise out of yall] Sale for Bregman was on the table and Luhnow balked, which tells you the value we know we're holding.

    We have the chips to be *creative: to make room and to add quality, to play the prospects without giving up the division, to pitch a Fiers 4IP Feliz 2IP = Quality Start, to experiment with Bregman or Gurriel in the OF, to extend Paulino Gustave and a Guduan, to have the patience for Reed and KTuck. If we're projected right now to win the division by 6+ games, it suggests we have wiggle room and will play with less pressure. Add in the veteran leadership, and it's a recipe for many things coming together nicely.

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  9. 1. I tend to think DK’s problems last year were physical more than anything else, so I think he can come back. Even if he recaptures his 2014 effectiveness, that’s a big plus to the team.
    2. LMJ hasn’t proven he can stay healthy, so I’m betting against it.
    3. Agree with previous comments. Yuli will handle it.
    4. I really hope it will be Altuve. Springer will thrive in the 5 or 6 hole in this lneup.
    5. Right now I like Devo in the long relief role. What a great luxury for a manager to be able to go to a quality arm in those cases where the starter gets rocked early or for the occasional spot start. He’s the kind of guy that might let you go with 12 pitchers instead of 13.
    6.Giles will be the man. I’d love to see them work into a 7-8-9 combo as in Lidge-Dotel-Wagner.
    7.Barring injuries, youth will not be served like it was last year. That’s why they brought in all the old hands over the off season.
    8. Aoki will handle LF, unless Teoscar tears it up out of the box. I don’t think Jake makes the team unless they carry only 12 pitchers.
    9. I’m OK if McCann plays so well it limits Gattis to playing against lefties, and Carlos Beltran does so well we don’t need another DH. I’d like to see Gattis get some time at 1B during ST so maybe he can get some game action there.
    10. Musgrove and Morton.

    What’s the prize for all this prognostication, Dan?

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    • Sweet, there’s a easy Out in their lineup … a team which seems incredibly clueless! Waiting around for Darvish, or others they think they can buy their way in. Meanwhile, the Astros get closer to the very best Homegrown team, CLE.

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  12. PECOTA came out with their win projections today and guess who they think will have the best record in the AL. and 2nd best record overall? I think you know the answer to this question.

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    • PECOTA is nice, projections are nice, but I worry about the thing that OP brought up – setting tone. This is a streaky team. It has won and lost in the past based on how long hot streaks lasted and funks lasted. What I do like about the projections is it probably puts some confidence, and maybe swagger, in their getup.

      It also could keep a guy like Correa, who could be matching a Harper or Trout, coasting (or maybe I overestimate him and should just be happy with best SS in baseball not necessarily best player in baseball label).

      Streaks are inevitable part of baseball. They almost single handedly decide everything. Remember that 83-79 world series Cardinals team? Yea, streak in the end to get over .500 and win a weak division, and that streak continued right through the end.

      What I love about the projections though is it tells me this team is capable of getting quite a few streaks in. They have the best offensive tone setter in baseball in Altuve. They have one of the best 4-5 players talent wise in Correa. They have offense, they have depth, they have defense. Do they have the pitching? Let’s hope so. A healthy McCullers and healthy Keuchel walk out there on days 1 and 2 and win after 7 inning gems, and they will set a tone.

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      • No doubt, well said!

        I go back to the crappy conditions in NY and in retrospect the crappy dynamic with Gomez. I could visibly see a deflated clubhouse from Day 1. It was like they shot their wad in the Spring, worked too hard, and they were missing the genuine “Springer Effect.” When they finally did lead off George they went 29-11 before the break.

        We have to find a way to spread out the Anxiety of High Hopes. That’s where ya need a steady hand at Skipper. Think we got half of a perfect coach for this team in Carlos Beltran.

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  13. Chimes in the wind – Keuchel – not sure if it was hurt or fatigue but there is no doubt the problem was in the arm. His velocity dropped, and for a guy that had no wiggle room in that regard he met the not handle end of the butcher sword. Can’t throw up meat to major leaguers. I think there is some bounce back.

    McCullers – Devins point of him being there when it matters most is key. The question is the rest of the rotation, can they win if McCullers only makes 15 starts but is available for the playoffs? If not, then maybe all 30+ starts become when it matters most.

    My guess is the Astros hope Gurriel hits in ST and takes the job. I think he may end up an overpaid and overmatched mistake. If he hits .265 with 15 homeruns is he a success or failure? Maybe depends on the rest – walk rate, K rate, does he help do the little things like move a runner, etc?

    Devo – I like him as a reliever. His odd delivery helps hide the lack of overpowering velocity. Not sure its as successful as a starter as hitters get to see him more than once in a game. Doubt they ratchet up his number of high leverage situations with Gregerson and Harris still in the fold. Still need that solid lefty guy that holds lefty hitters to the sub .220 mark for that challenging, game changing at bat. What Devo and Feliz do offer is what other teams don’t have, that is so much depth that your 5th-7th inning guys aren’t getting blown up if the starter gasses early with 100 pitches in 5 innings along with being able to soak up finishing bad starts.

    Giles closes, or at least I suspect that Astros management sure hopes so. I personally feel he will be in the serviceable in the role, but bottom half – hey someone has to be top half, someone as to be bottom half.

    Youth – so many of them. Probably some AAAAers in the list. I don’t want to see one dimensionals unless those one dimensionals are getting the PT necessary to make what they do really well relevant – think RG and the OBP. I still think Reed is the best young hitter we have but he has to get consistent PT to get comfortable. Last year was the first time in his life he faced that caliber pitching, and he did it many times playing twice a week, something else he never experienced. Bottom line though this is an excuse free career – make the adjustments or they will find someone that can. Baseball is a ruthless job – succeed, or else.

    Left – I think they brought Aoki here to play and get on base. He started to show some cracks last year with a drop off against lefties. Maybe the hands are slowing just a bit. I say go with him 110 games +, but make sure you have a real valid plan B. I don’t count Hernandez or Marisnick as valid plan B’s, more like plan Cs. They both need to improve as hitters. Marisnick is probably just who he is, Hernandez has space left but needs to close it up.

    Gattis – was the catching/DH splits just timing that was relevant to when he just got hot as a hitter or is there something to him being more “in the game?” Astros management needs to figure that out. Personally I would more apt to split the catching duties, assigning two of the pitchers to Gattis and three to McCann – and used some situationally against the best righty/lefty setups.

    I’ll take your top 3 and put Morton in that rotation, and hope that Musgrove wins the 5th spot but guess that because Musgrove has options and Fiers doesn’t that Fiers gets the spot and Joe starts at AAA. Musgrove doesn’t just have more potential, even at less than full potential he is still better than Fiers and probably McHugh and Morton, but he won’t get the nod since you will have to suck up losing one of those guys just to start him – but long term no harm is done for Joe to start at AAA and get up here first sign of injury. I think Feliz and Devo are BP bound. By the end of the year I expect the Astros have shuffled in some form or fashion Fiers and McHugh out and Martes and Musgrove in.

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    • On Gurriel, I think as long as he’s good enough to start (somewhere in the field) it will not have been a costly mistake. It reminds me a bit of the Jason Werth signing by Washington. Everyone laughed at the overpay, but he brought some legitimacy as a top name free agent willing to sign there. Just my opinion, but we lost out on free agents and trades over the last couple years due to owner / FO stinginess. I suspect seeing them make the big splash impressed a number of guys. Remember, they want to get paid as much as possible, but they also want to believe the team will bring in other expensive players to try to win championships.

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      • Part of stinginess could be that we just weren’t good enough to make a dent, even if we had made the playoffs. Last year we stood pat at the deadline and watched arch rival replace Catcher and DH we so desperately needed, but that was just enough to get TEX one and done. Now that we saved $, and used 12 rookies, we’ve turned the tables on them… and ya can’t deny the overspend on Int’l players. Upgrades on MMP, new ST facilities, new A ball venue, S American operations in full gear? 5 picks in Top 91 of the draft (75th we have flex). Plus, we promoted our Mind Coach to regular skipper!

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  14. 7.
    I know this parts with some good arguments made in favor of consistency, but I’d rather NOT have the opposing Manager tell a bench player that the “Astros will throw Harris in the 7th so be ready”. I’d much rather we withhold the element of surprise, and leave their players guessing. Later in the season, did you notice Hinch kept giving Sipp some (lower leverage) opportunities, that was at least to keep the other teams honest (we’re still going to throw the moderate to hot hand). This season will be a Closer competition again, with the hope that Giles captures it handily. I see zero setback from the way we got it done last year, and that was dictated by results basically. This year we must be open to giving a list of 8+ guys some relief work. Are we literally that stuck in the mud to say that if Tolliver comes out and dominates, we’ll pitch Sipp instead? [insert any league minimum name vs our bonus baby]. No, we’ll figure out how to add value to Tony, and trade him.

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    • Makes sense. Solid pickup.
      No way does it offset what they’ve lost, though … I’d rather face him than Astro killer Moreland!

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  16. *With lefty catcher Brian McCann getting the bulk of the starts as a catcher and Beltran as a DH will the Astros more judiciously use Gattis? *

    Barring an injury to switch-hitting Carlos Beltran, there is no reason to ever use Gattis as our DH. Using your back-up catcher as a DH is always asking for trouble anyway. Moreover, barring an injury to McCann, or a freak make-up-game double-header, there is no reason to ever start Gattis behind the plate against a righty.

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    • Maybe in an afternoon game after a night game. That is pretty standard, industry wise, especially with a catcher in his thirties. We need to stay real about this 162 game season that is now a couple of days shorter. If McCann catches on Saturday night, I would catch Gattis on Sunday afternoon. I would like to have McCann not used up come playoff time.

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    • I’ll bet today Beltran sees more LF innings than given credit for, and therefore Gattis to DH. That’s our power lineup as opposed to Aoki, or Marisnick. Not sure what the reasoning Gattis’ weird offensive splits last season (C v DH), but it would seem more to do with individual matchups (and RHP feasting on low and away).

      I consider Beltran a guy at $16M in a swan song of career that we will play in the field every inning he asks. (Except in blowouts, or when we’re comfortable enough in the standings to give 5th OF a shot). By virtue of the same reasoning for Gattis that you MUST play him in the field, why not say the same of Beltran? Anyway, I’m not going to say he’s an upgrade to Hernandez JFSF but he started 134 G two yrs ago, and 69 G last season. Beltran and Altuve both had a 91% contact rate of swings outside the strike zone, keep him in the game. And if Gattis is hot – same!

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  17. *Will Dallas Keuchel V.2015 or V.2016 show up? *

    Of course, nobody knows for sure, but I am betting on ‘V.2015 light’. The new more-offensive minded strike zone definitely penalizes guys like DK, who relies on people biting at stuff thrown into ‘stretched zones’. If he has to groove it, or keep it at the knees or above, he will never be V.2015 again. But he can be substantially better than V.2016. I got a bad feeling when I heard last Spring that he was delaying the start of his pitching regimen. He did not have time to get ready anyway – and then they changed the strike zone on him and made him have to re-invent himself.

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    • I think the difference in 2016 was that Keuchel was missing the zone with pitches that never resembled strikes and getting behind in too many counts. I’m hoping this was due to the mysterious injury and he will be able to locate in 2017. He was the best pitcher in the league in 2015 at inducing weak contact. If the control is there, he can be a similar pitcher even with a shrinking zone.

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  18. * Can young Lance McCullers Jr. stay healthy? *

    He’s had his share of bad luck. He’s due for a break-out season! [Translation: I sure hope so!]

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  19. * As a long reliever strategic weapon Chris Devenski was tremendous. His stats as a reliever only …. 1.61 ERA/ 0.813 WHIP / 6.92 K per BB / .194 BA against were nails. So, the question is – will the Astros try to move him into the starting rotation or keep him in the ‘pen and hope for more of the same. *

    Easy question. Barring an epic fail by C. Morton [which I consider a real possibility] there is simply no room for Chris in the rotation. So I think he stays right where he is, doing what he did so well last year. Stretching him out probably means letting him play long-toss more.

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    • I did say he hurt the team, and d replied that would’ve been a $100M career mistake then. The question is: shouldn’t he have told someone “his shoulder was barking?” Like when he went into the trainer and got iced after a game? Or, maybe like, to his Mgr or Pitching coach?

      This goes to the question I posited yesterday about Lance McCullers and Matt Harvey, where the Mets are drawing heat since a lot of their staff is having arm troubles. It’s a “thing” that several teams are known for, I don’t know what the word is – “making their ace pitch through pain.” The Verducci Effect. In football certain coaches have that reputation for making their players play through concussions or wabbly legs (Fisher, Shanahan), or for you old schoolers movies like North Dallas Forty, where you either shot up for pain, or you didn’t play.

      It’s really the job of Hinch to get the truth out of our Dallas, don’t ya think?

      Or, do you think Keuchel is simply speaking in retrospect ‘I wasn’t quite 100% and I didn’t really know my limitations’?

      It tells me that if you’re the Ace and slotted to pitch, you don’t miss a start unless your arm’s falling off, like going to the Aide Station in the Army and leaving your mates in battle but looking to you for help. I’m sure he has a lot of pride.

      But again, he gets a little levity since he’s our Cy, over this routine bit. He will have every chance to do it his way & fire off 32 starts if healthy. If not, then he couched it in the right terms, he’ll be hurting an already deep team. If Musgrove is in AAA, then yes! We lose production on the big club.

      I’m optimistic and trust him, but hope he learns from not taking the rest – whatever point in the season.

      This morning’s article echoes what we’ve all been saying and that is to pace ourselves a little bit.

      http://climbingtalshill.com/2017/02/08/astros-update-health-dallas-keuchel-lance-mccullers/

      Lastly, didn’t we lose Lance Berkman for a season to a freaking flag football game? I’m hoping this routine of his isn’t disrupted (besides injury too) by the WBC.

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    • Sandy – that is disappointing to read for me. That seems like an emotional response to the Astros getting hot after moving Springer to lead off. Was that the catalyst or was it just time for the team to heat up.
      The only positive in my mind is that now the end of the lineup is not a black hole, Springer should have a lot more ABs with men on base which should help his RBI totals and maybe get him a few more fastballs to hit.

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    • It took three years to get career center fielder George Springer to CF.
      Hopefully it won’t take very long to move him to the 5 or 6 spot where a power/RBI guy who strikes out a lot belongs, especially when you have a perennial high OBP/ league leading base stealer/extreme low strikeout guy ready to be put at that lead off spot.
      Moving Springer to lead off last year did not suddenly make everybody else on the team play better. It was the law of averages. A bunch of players who were playing miserably started playing better. Last year was last year. Hinch needs to forget last year and put the best lineup on the field from the very first game of the year, this year!
      But I will say one other thing about it. Maybe Springer will catch the Alex Presley Syndrome and hit 40 points higher when he plays CF than he did when he played RF. Then, none of this will matter.

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      • I’m hoping it’s 6, one half-dozen or another. Altuve and more AB’s is a no-brainer, but Hinch has a better pulse than we do, so there’s a chance that Spring could shake up more than we think! The best laid plans….

        My bigger question is where will Bregman hit? He seems to be the guy *in the order that gets forgotten. This lineup is formidable up & down.

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      • Tuve is getting better at patience but he is never going to be the perennial work a pitcher to see his stuff kinda hitter that I prefer from a leadoff. I spent most of my baseball years batting second – I liked my leadoff hitter to see 4-5 pitches and hopefully a little of everything so I could get an idea of what he was doing that day. Maybe that was the selfish side of me that wanted just that smidgen more of an advantage. Jose is more patient than he was 3 years ago, but he is still pretty aggressive and will try to lace a first pitch strike down the middle into left field for a clean single.

        I guess if you got Correa, Beltran, Springer and company to still sort the rest of the lineup out though, leadoff is where he best fits this crew.

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  22. * Will ‘yute’ be served? Who will bring value to the Astros? Which other kids will get a shot at the big club? *

    I think Teoscar Hernandez and A.J. Reed are the most likely position players to contribute, simply because of whose place they might take. If Jake cannot hit better than his lifetime .225/.268/.607 [yes, it is pathetic], Teoscar may be brought in to be the guy who plays RF against left-handed pitchers. If he gets the chance, watch out Jake. If Gurriel cannot play a respectable first base, or can’t stay healthy and on the field, Reed or White is the next man up. I don’t know what we have in either White or Reed,but since I am not at all sold on Gurriel as a first baseman, I suspect either A.J. or Tyler – whichever does better at Fresno – will get a chance before the season is over. From a pitching standpoint, I think Brady Rodgers will get a shot at some point; and by the end of the year, if he is not traded, I think we’ll see a good bit of Mr. Martes. We might see some of Mr. Tolliver (lefty reliever) especially if Mr. Sipp falters or goes on the DL. We might see some of Gustave (righty reliever) and/or Mr. Jankowski if we have injuries in the relief corps.

    Most unlikely to see playing time in Houston: I do not consider it likely that we will – at least before September call-ups – see much of Mr. Moran, Mr. Tucker, Mr. Singleton, Mr. Kemp, Mr. Kemmer, Mr. Stubbs, Mr. Laureano, Mr. Fisher, or any pitcher other than those mentioned above.

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  23. Saw where our former minor leaguer Daniel Mengden is recovering from a broken foot which will hurt him in his pursuit of a rotation spot with the A’s.

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  24. * What does closing time look like? *

    I suspect it will be the wild, wild west 3 nights out of four, just like it was last year. Mr. Giles will strike a lot of guys out, but he will also walk a lot of guys, and he will also move a lot of guys into scoring position [or home] via very, very wild pitch. Occasionally he’ll look unhittable; usually he’ll make us sweat bullets in the ninth inning. He’ll blow 20 % or more of his save opportunities. Billy Wagner or Brad Lidge he isn’t. But hopefully our offense will bail him out when he blows a save at home, and we get a chance to walk it off in the bottom half of the frame.

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  25. As to the above comments about Gurriel being a potential overpaid, under performing FA… I think he will do fine. And in the spirit of “we can always flip him in a trade”, how about to the Texans for a high pick in the NFL draft and see if he can play QB,

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  26. * Who fills out the rotation? *

    This is still the Astros. If this FO pays millions for guys like Morton and Fiers, that is who is going to start the season in the rotation no matter what either they do in ST or what Mr. Musgrove, Mr. Feliz, Mr. Devenski, Mr. Rodgers, or Mr. Martes do. “Follow the money”; that’s how this FO rolls.

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    • I agree to a certain extent Mr. Bill. They did follow this to start last season with Scott Feldman in the rotation, but they did move him and his relatively big contract to the bullpen early in the season. I don’t think they will show that much patience with anyone this season and they will move someone out of the way if they are not producing.

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      • I just hope Musgrove, Devenski, Feliz, Rodgers and Martes all perform like superstars and push the envelope. Not counting on much at all from Fiers or Morton.

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  27. This article started by saying AJ “squashed that bug” when describing Beltran in the OF. That’s simply not the case!

    climbingtalshill.com/2017/02/08/astros-manager-a-j-hinch-clarifies-plan-for-left-field

    I love Hinch’s humor; the way he gets his player to respect, play hard and have fun.

    “I doubt that Jake, in this outfield, will see much time on the corners without playing center and making the other guys move. The day I put Marisnick in for defense, and he tells Springer to go to right field, you will see Springer walk to right with his head down.” [Lol!]

    Hinch joked that Springer would be mad because he would think that Hinch thinks that Marisnick is the better centerfielder. This sounds like Marisnick may be used as a defensive replacement for one of the corner spots, not necessarily replacing Springer in center. Aoki will get some starts in left versus right-handed pitchers.

    “Marisnick will spell Reddick versus left-handed starting pitchers. A little bit, not every left-handed pitcher is bad for Reddick. Beltran will fight me to play the outfield. He wants to stay active. I might push him to the outfield during a lot of home games with the short territory to cover.”

    What a stable to choose from, and they’re not even talking about Teoscar, Ramon nor Derek!

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      • Stros have unique valuations for Jake, besides a BA, or OBP. Apparently, his defense and clubhouse presence is that important.

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      • I’m usually the first to bash Jake’s offensive contributions, but keep in mind most teams have a 24th or 25th player on the roster they don’t want hitting. The Indians made the final out in the World Series using Michael Martinez with what could only be charitably called a weak grounder. I don’t recall why he was in the game, but he was obviously on the roster for defensive value. The Royals beat the Astros in that game 4 in 2015 following a key walk by Drew Butera…a guy who sports a lifetime .198 BA and .548 OPS.

        Having Gattis/McCann and versatile options like Bregman/Marwin you can afford to carry a light hitter who plays defense and runs well. Keep in mind a number of teams have been taking a base stealing specialist on the postseason roster the last couple years…one of them even made his major league debut last postseason (Mondesi?)!!!

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  28. * What’s left? *

    Aoki, if healthy, will start in left at least vs. righties. BA and OBP for the left field position have to improve, and Aoki is the best shot. I hope they find a way to keep either Teoscar Hernandez on the 25-man, so he can play LF vs. lefties. If not, we will either get Jake starting in LF [ugh], or we will have Beltran start in left vs. lefties and someone [probably Marwin, but possibly T. White if he makes the team instead of Teoscar] starting at DH.

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    • Marwin can play LF against LHs. He is probably better than Beltran out there. Beltran will get some starts in LF at MMP, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marwin also get some LF starts.

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      • Tim, is there any evidence Beltran can not play LF? In his prime he was one of the best defensive CF in the game. Marwin is probably the slowest position player on our 25 man roster…although McCann may take that title.

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      • Beltran hasn’t played LF since 2000 so I am just going off his OF defensive metrics. Last year he was -0.4 UZR/150 and -6.9 in 2015. MarGo was 10.2 and 10.5 the last 2 years. In addition MarGO was +3 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) combined for the last 2 years in LF while Beltran was -20 in the OF combined the last 2 years. Playing LF at MMP should help Beltran and it is difficult to evaluate him defensively in LF since he hasn’t played there, but I can only use the data available.

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      • I’m Marwin’s biggest fan, but he takes horrible routes and looks lost in the OF. The difference he makes defensively v Beltran (hardly Carlos Lee) isn’t worth the offensive trade off. All things being equal, Carlos Beltran is as talented a hitter as we have, and I’m simply advocated you’re not taking him out of the game – ever – unless the game is somehow inconsequential. I don’t see any difference in Beltran and Aoki in LF, but again I’ll take the switch hitter with power all day.. we wouldn’t be having this discussion (Beltran would be everyday DH), except that Gattis/Reed when hot will otherwise be missed. Oh, and Carlos has made it known he wants to stay active.

        I know it was a long time ago, but I’ve never witnessed anyone run bases like Beltran, that’s compared to Tavares Bourn and Carl Everett! He and Aoki have both lost a step, but they’ve seen it all, and that’s another big advantage v. a would-be 4th OF.

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  29. I want to say to everyone, that all of the great input, thoughts, links, etc that all of you are throwing out there is what makes this blog such a fun place to be. I learn things often and beyond that I am challenged to think beyond my own internal prejudices.

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    • One thing that seems pretty obvious to me is the Latin players prefer Marwin at 1B – not to say we all don’t want a Masher over there, but you could visibly see less comraderie with White and Reed. I’m not sure how that matters much; it’s the real nature of the game to outperform, or get lapped.

      When the phrase, “there’s not much more to prove in AAA” is your calling card, people tend to forget the *lightbulb switch-on that may just happen for Reed (same trainer as Rodgers in off season). WHEN/if that happens in ’17, that means Marwin & Gurriel get in where they fit in, or AJ gets some DH time. And if that happens, Beltran plays even more OF.

      I’m telling ya, it wouldn’t surprise me to see guys playing out of position a lot. But then again, I’ve seen Correa make the play on 2B side v RHH – pitch thrown perfectly – nobody plays where “they’re supposed to!”

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  33. Op and Dan, Dave and AC, Gov and Roadthriller, Sandy and Diane – get warm, then stretch it out to long toss.
    Tim, Billy, Steven, Kevin, and Devin, line up to take your swings in the cage. Becky, throw ’em somethin’ they can hit.
    Me? I’ll be on the massage table.

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    • My theory is that the Astros usually offer low, wait for the counter offer and settle in the middle. McHugh is not going for the middle because he considers that too low for his contributions. I think the Astros will end up paying McHugh a salary very close to what he is asking, in order to avoid arbitration.
      I also think we don’t have a clue as to what the relationship between McHugh and the organization is all about.

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    • My theory is that Luhnow and Crane are cheap. Fiers filed for $3.9M, the team countered at $3M, and the team settled halfway at $3.45M. McHugh asked for $3.85M and the team countered at $3.35M. Now, can anyone give a realistic explanation for the team valuing McHugh at only $300k more than Mike Fiers?

      My personal opinion is that McHugh, after seeing them guarantee so much money to Charlie Morton, is rather upset and expecting a bit more than the usual Luhnow treatment.

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      • 2014 – 16 McHugh had more wins than Fiers and Morton …. combined. I know that wins are not the be all but who do you trust the most out of these three?
        If they go to arbitration the front office is going to lose. Pay the man.

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  35. Has anyone noticed that Nori Aoki’s career slash line as a LH batter against LH pitchers is .308/.365/.380/.745, with an 8% strikeout rate.
    Has anyone noticed that Jake Marisnick’s career slash line as a RH batter against LH pitchers is .229/.276/.392/.667, with a 26% strikeout rate.
    Why would anyone talk about platooning these guys? We’re talking a difference in OPS of almost 100 points over a period of five years worth of stats for these two guys.

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    • That is a bid statistical difference op, but I am confident that after a season under Dave Hudgens tutelage that Aoki can lower his BA/OBP numbers and raise that strikeout rate.

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    • Recently, Hinch said he’ll use more than 150 different lineups in 2017. At this point, he’s just trying to assure everyone that they have an opportunity for playing time. As mentioned before, Op, Aoki’s numbers versus left-handed pitching have been going down drastically the last three years.

      The only other thing I can think of is that the great month of May ’16(?) that Jake had two seasons ago is still fresh in everyone’s mind as he’s nearing his prime, while surely Aoki has eclipsed his own. That, elite defense and late-inning pinch running.

      I think 5th OF is superfluous anyway bc our guys can multi task, and I’d rather keep13 pitchers on occasion. Plus, I’d rather have Kemp for Jake’s role, until the latter can hit for average.

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      • Oops, I should say 2016 v LHP Aoki hit 227. Down over 136 points from 2014. That was the contrast I was trying to draw.

        He was also the table-setter last year hitting .275. An interesting note is he was 5-11 as a pinch hitter!

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      • His stats were great against LH pitchers in 2014 and 2015.
        So that leaves a poor year of stats against LHers in 2016 which is a small sample. I don’t believe that he suddenly forgot how to hit LHers overnight and tend to believe it was the way he was used by the Mariners.
        I would bet money that a guy with his kind of career numbers is not going to be out- hit by a player who has never hit LH pitchers(or RH pitchers) well.
        Aoki’s career OBP against all pitchers is .353 and Marisnick’s is .268. That is a huge amount of difference hitting in the #9 spot in front of Altuve or Springer.
        The strikeout difference is stunning. With Aoki hitting ninth, the leadoff guy is going to have Aoki on base a lot more times, plus, anyone who was on base when Aoki gets on base will be in scoring position a lot more times because Aoki will be advancing them instead of ending an inning. Having a guy who could hit .275-.280 in the nine spot is like stacking up the dominoes.
        This situation creates something that could affect Springer leading off this year which wasn’t there last year. With runners on, Springer overswings, and if the Astros have a bottom of the order getting on base a lot, the leadoff spot could be a lot different this year than last year, when nobody in the bottom of the order was on base.
        If the bottom of the order is getting on base a lot, please give me a batting champion in the leadoff spot who strikes out only 10% of the time and gets more hits than anyone in baseball. Please!

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      • Hope your right OP. I fear he might be slowing a bit. The first thing that goes in the hands is the inability to hit offspeed pitches coming at you from the same side. I remember the old Biggio that could still put one in the Crawford boxes if a lefty put one in a bad spot, but couldn’t hit a righty’s slider anymore to save his life. I hope he proves this year that is just short sample, and I pray that the Astros don’t lose 3-4 games trying to find out. If I’m Hinch, I’m not sure I take that chance.

        He maybe forced too though. The talk of Aoki not playing against lefties has to be tempered with the fact that Reddick probably needs to sit against the same really good lefties as well as McCann, and we only have so many options to use.

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  36. Jeff Luhnow (especially) lies awake at night with a singular vision:

    Ken Giles fans Kris Bryant in three pitches to sweep the Cubs and capture Houston’s first ever World Series title.

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  37. I don’t think Aoki forgot how to hit. It’s probably like Hinch said of Reddick, he’s good against some lefties.

    I was doing the look-ahead for matchups w M’s and Marwin is 11 for 25 v Iwakuma, so you can bet he’ll be in there Day 2. That type of thing.

    By contrast, against King Felix we’ll send as many lefties and lineup something like this:

    Springer CF
    Bregman 3B <– if Reddick here, then where Alex?
    Altuve 2B
    Correa SS
    Beltran LF
    Gattis DH
    Reddick RF
    Gurriel 1B
    McCann C

    The one problem here is that with DK pitching, we'll need a plus LF.

    So, Op's lineup is better
    Tuve
    Reddick
    Bregman
    Correa
    Beltran
    Springer
    McCann
    Gurriel
    Aoki (btw, he has no stats v Mariners except 1 for 7 v Iwakuma)

    No Gattis?
    Could be some surprises

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    • In prior years I thought Hinch was more flexible than he should have been. But this year I think he can be as flexible as he wants to be. So Gov’s 150 lineup theory (I think he forgot to turn on the sarcasm font) may not be far off. But I hope he can get a regular rhythm going. (Hinch, not Gov…not that we don’t wish good rhythm for you Gov, just doubt we need to hear about it ;)).

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    • I’d go:
      Springer
      Beltran
      Altuve
      Correa
      …

      If Reddick or Bregman performs well enough to earn a spot with those four then shuffling the lineup is a good problem to have. If they do not, well, I’ve seen enough Astros games with guys like Alex Presley wasting at bats because the manager/FO is stubborn so nothing would surprise me. Also, don’t sleep on Aoki hitting in the second spot.

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  42. Hello everyone…..my last treatment was Tues, and as soon as the last drop of that poison went in my arm I ran outta there like a rattlesnake was chasing me. I’ve been reading all the posts but I’ve been pretty sick and I’ve been sleeping quite a bit.😢
    I’m looking forward to a great season, and it can’t come soon enough! Since I’m not a football fan and I wasn’t interested in the Super Bowl, but I watched the last quarter thinking….don’t count Brady out. When I feel better, I’ll join in the fun on Chipalatta.
    Becky⚾

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    • I’m a little bummed because I won’t get to go to spring training this year with my 2 boys. Since my oldest son made his high school baseball team they have games during the week of spring break so as long as he’s playing baseball at his high school the spring training trips will have to take a hiatus.

      Also, I bought 3 tickets for opening day this year to take my boys. His coach has a hard rule that if you miss any practice as an unexcused absence (illness or family emergency are about the only excused absences) then you do not get to play in the next game. He decided, and I am proud of him for making this decision, to skip opening day with his brother and me. We will be taking my father-in-law instead. The silver lining is that practice ends around 6:45 PM so he should be able to get home just in time to watch the game.

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      • I’m sorry about that Tim. The family dynamics start really fluxing when the kids move into high school and beyond. They go away to school and even to live and there are less opportunities – though you can get occasional treats like when my sons come back to town and take us to ball games. That’s how I got to see Correa and Gattis go back to back to move a loss to the win column last season.

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  44. Since today is the scheduled day for McHugh’s arb hearing, these things could have been in play:
    a. It’s simply a matter of money and perceived value.
    b. Somebody wants Collin and is waiting to hear what his salary is before they move to acquire him.
    d. The Astros want to move McHugh for some prospects to add to the system before they move to acquire another starting pitcher and are waiting to know what his contract will be.
    d. The Astros might have approached Collin about an extension and they couldn’t work out a deal.
    e. Collin might have approached the Astros about a deal and it couldn’t get worked out.
    f. One or the other might not want to make a deal.
    g. Neither one wanted an extension.
    h. Both sides are happy with each other and are willing to let the process play out.
    I am still hoping for a settlement.

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  45. I’m kind of leaning towards a), op. I’d be kind of surprised if $3.35 vs. $3.85 million is going to drive the results of a deal very much. You wonder if this is kind of like the Jason Castro battle over practically nothing – a signal that Collin is not a part of their thought process going forward.

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  46. Becky, way to tough it out. I’ve been sitting on the sidelines here, I suppose waiting for the pitchers to report and things to get underway. Like most of us, I don’t think Springer should be our lead off guy. As I’ve said already, the best lead off guy in the game might be our second baseman. And I still can’t justify a guy with a .588 OPS having a roster spot on my club. Jake is a major leaguer in every area except for when he’s at the dish. But from an offensive standpoint, Hinch should not have to agonize too much about who to put where on the scorecard. We should see guys hitting up and down the line up regardless of what the order is. And that’s why Springer will likely lead off and Marisnick will have a job. We don’t have any real holes at the plate. With the guys we’ll have hitting 7, 8 and 9, it would not be too far fetched for Springer to drive in 100. And I subscribe to the 1OP theory that George, finally back home where he belongs in center, will have that offensive year we’ve all been waiting for. Hitting is contagious and we’re going to hit.

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    • Dan, maybe you could make that post as a challenge to us to come up with 162 different lineups for the season, so we could all feel like big league managers.

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  48. I love JFSF, but he only has value in late innings defensively and as a pinch runner. His total bases are so close to his Ks, it is not funny. He is not a consistent hitter. When you start listing the 12 probably position players, you hit 10 quickly. So not many spots left. If Jake is on the club, he plays 8th and 9th inning if Aoki makes the last our in the 7th. Or Jake plays in blow outs to rest someone. However, if MLB decides to start the extra innings with a runner on 2nd, he is GOLDEN.

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  49. Two weeks from today it will be on. Will it be Nori Aoki, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Teoscar Hernandez, or Tony Kemp who steps into the batter’s box to kick off the 2017 Spring Campaign?

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    • Great question!

      It will be Springer (most power).
      I want Altuve (to get 700 AB’s).
      If Teoscar is playing that well, he’ll be the best (“plus speed, power and arm” – JJ Cooper)
      If it’s Kemp, there’ll be silver linings & growing pains.
      If Nori, he’s most creative, not the stealing threat he once was.

      My strategy would be to come right at you with Altuve. For some reason, as many-featured a lineup as Hinch will assemble (143 last season), he sticks to a lead off guy pretty regular. This could be a year of firsts, though!

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  50. For the first game of ST, I think Hinch will want to see what kind of energy offseason acquisition Nori Aoki brings to the table. That’s why I suspect that new acquisition Charlie Morton will be given the first start. But by opening day, I think it will be either Springer or Altuve in lead-off, and Charlie Morton on a short leash at the BOR.

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