Top prospects: A look ahead at the Astros’ long-term health

There will be a lot of work done in this off-season to set and hopefully upgrade the Astros’ major league roster. But just as important to the long term health of the organization is the quality and depth of the minor league prospects. Here is a summary of the top 15 prospects from mlb pipeline (more or less) and highlights of their recent performances.

1)  Francis Martes (20 years old) RHP – Playing way above his age group at AA, his 9-6 record with a 3.30 ERA and 9.4 K / 9 IP opened eyes. He got hit around a bit at the Arizona Fall League – big deal, he’s 20 years old and reportedly working on a changeup. This could be the crown jewel of the Jarred Cosart trade.

Prospect. Expect him to arrive in Houston in 2018.

2) Kyle Tucker (19) OF (1st rd – 5th overall pick in 2015) – The teenager had a very solid 2016 in A ball with a hot cup of coffee for 16 games at Lancaster (A+). He put up a combined .286/.360/.798 line, 25 doubles, 7 triples, 9 HRs and 69 RBIs with 32 SBs, which bodes very well for the future.

Prospect. Considering the lack of OF depth in the organization he could make the majors by the end of 2018.

3) Forrest Whitley (19) RHP (1st rd – 17th overall pick in 2016) – Sure he had a 4.82 ERA in 18.2 IP, but that 26 Ks looked pretty strong for the young man in rookie ball.

Prospect. It will be a while – maybe 2020?

4) David Paulino (22) RHP (Part of the Jose Veras trade) – His short stay at AAA and his one start in the majors were OK. The core of his success was 64 innings at AA where he put up a 5-2 record, 1.86 ERA, and an impressive 10.1 Ks/9 IP and 1.5 BB/9 IP.

Prospect. A good performance in 2016 could give him a shot at more than one start in the majors by the end of the season.

5) Derek Fisher (23) OF (1st round supplemental 2014) – The left handed hitter had a solid year split between AA and AAA with a .255 / .367 / .815 split. His 21 HRs 76 RBIs and 28 SBs make him one of the next men up for the Astros in a year they may be looking for some young outfield help.

Prospect. They probably want to give him a little more experience at AAA, but if he does well and if they are hurting…. look for his debut this season.

6) Daz Cameron (19) OF (1st round supplemental 2015) – After a good start at A- (.278/.352/.770) he crashed and burned in 21 games at A ball (.143/.221/.442). Again he is only 19, but of course he has the pressure of Tucker’s success weighing on his mind.

Prospect. That bridge is too far to see….

7) Albert Abreu (21) (Free agent out of the Dominican) – Pitching mostly at A ball and 3 games at A+, his 3-8 record does not match his 3.50 ERA. His 10.2 Ks/9 IP are great; his 5.1 BB/9 IP are a work in progress.

Prospect. If….he can improve that control he could be ready by 2019.

8) Colin Moran (23) 3B (Also part of the Cosart trade) – He looked totally overmatched in 9 games with the Astros, but was it any worse than Alex Bregman‘s career start? He had a decent season at AAA with his BA (.259) and OBP (.325) but he continues to be light on power for a corner infielder. Maybe a repeat at AAA will help him hit his stride.

Prospect. It is hard to picture where he fits with Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel standing between him and 3B in Houston. Maybe he will be part of a trade.

Note: Teoscar Hernandez‘s 100 mlb at bats moved him from the 9th spot.

9) Franklin Perez (18) RHP (Free agent out of VZ) – Very impressive season at A ball. 3-3 record with a 2.84 ERA and an eye popping 10.1 K/9 IP to go along with 2.6 BB/9 IP. Great season at that level and that age.

Prospect. He could be in the bigs in 2 or 3 years.

10) Miguelangel Sierra (18) SS (Free agent out of VZ) – In 2016 he had a very strong start at rookie ball (11 HR with a 1.006 OPS in 31 games) and then was totally overmatched at A- ball. What were you doing at 18 years old?

Prospect. Way way too early to speculate.

11) J.D. Davis (23) 3B (3rd round in 2014) – After all these 18 and 18 y.o., Davis feels like a much older brother. His 23 HR and 81 RBIs at AA may not see the light of day with all the 3B depth ahead of him.

Prospect. Maybe he can leap over Moran with his bigger bat and end up as a bench bat for the Astros. Maybe.

Note: Cionel Perez was in the next spot until his deal was voided.

12) Jonathan Arauz (18) MI (Part of the Ken Giles deal) – The 2nd Arauz in the deal, the kid looks like a typical light hitting middle infielder with a .249/.323/.661 split in rookie ball.

Prospect. No telling

13) Gilberto Celestino (17) OF (Free agent out of the Dominican) – Seventeen? Maybe we should be reporting on whether he is shaving or  not. He had good combined numbers in rookie ball – his 15 steals in 18 attempts stand out in 56 games.

Prospect. He will be 18 next season….

Note – Skipping 30 year old James Hoyt and his 22 appearances….

14) Riley Ferrell (23) RHP (3rd round in 2015) – His 12.6 K/9 IP and 1.8 BB/9 IP rocked at A+ Lancaster until he went down with shoulder surgery last May.

Prospect. There is room for relievers with great stuff and control in the organization, but health will be the primary focus.

15) Ronnie Dawson (21) OF (2nd rd in 2016) – His OBP (.351) impressed more than his BA (.225)/ He showed some power (7 HR and 36 RBIs) and speed (12 SBs) in 70 games at A- ball.

Prospect. Mr. Dawson looks to be three years away, if ever.

Honorable mention – Freudys Nova,  Anibal Sierra,  Brendan McCurry,  Brady Rodgers,  Guadalupe Chavez,  Jake Rogers,  Stephen Wrenn,  Jandel Gustave,  Yordan Alvarez,  Reymin Guduan,  Ramon Laureano,  Jason Martin

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269 responses to “Top prospects: A look ahead at the Astros’ long-term health”

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  1. Garrett Stubbs. Mentioned in an article last week that his job over the winter is to add ten pounds of muscle to get stronger and convince the organization that he is strong enough to handle the catcher’s position and can hit with some power with his short, sweet, left-handed contact stroke.
    He is currently #30 in our organization, but I expect him to be in the top 15 by next spring.

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  3. Stubbs – Based on the “depth” of our catching in the organization he should fly up the chart in a hurry with any kind of decent performance.

    Gurriel – I thought it would take a miracle for Lourdes (all Catholics should be giggling at this point) to come here. Not the money but the opportunity. He probably wants to go where he can be a SS and that is not here. Or maybe it was the money….

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    • He only got $22 million for 7 years from the Blue Jays. Of course, we don’t know what else is in the deal and the MLBTR site points out similar signings came with earlier entries into arbitration and/or opt outs.

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  4. I am probably in Whitley’s corner more than anyone here and think he might be our best prospect.
    Because of his birthday in September, he was older than most seniors in HS and he already has a plus fastball and slider and an average changeup and curve. A nineteen year old with four pitches and a 50 rating on command has my attention.
    This guy, with a work ethic to match his size and a very easy delivery, could be a special player. I think he joins the Astros in 2019, barring injury.

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  5. I am hopeful that the astros keep Martes and Paulino in the system and they don’t get traded for an over the hill player like McCann (catcher from NY). I am also hopeful on the continuing development of Kyle Tucker. I’m really glad that the stros have left Lancaster and their high A team will be in a more normal baseball environment where a player like Tucker can be more easily evaluated and developed. I don’t have as much confidence in Daz Cameron as I do Tucker and can see him being one of the prospects as trade material along with Moran and J.D. Davis.

    As usual, I agree with 1oldpro about the special quality of Whitley. I think this time next year, he will be our #1 prospect.

    Do any of you feel that Stubbs could make the team as our 2nd catcher this Spring?

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    • The kid only has 31 games at AA, though he is older (23) than many of the AA prospects. Based on how they have handled prospects and especially catchers – I don’t expect him to be anywhere near the majors coming out of spring training.

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  6. With the Blue Jays signing Kendry Morales it seems to take them out of the Encarnacion sweepstakes as signing him would, essentially, eat up the rest of the remaining money they are willing to spend. This bodes well for those that want us to sign EE.

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  7. With the Yankees saying they would “maybe” pay a portion of McCann’s, contract and wanting “several top flight prospects” in return, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luhnow sign Castro. Waaay too many is and buts with the Yankees, plus like I said McCann has a full no trade clause. I read yesterday that Luhnow wants to have at least two moves before the winter meetings early in Dec. I doubt that includes McCann.

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    • These dumb articles do concern me however. You never know with our leadership. In the meantime, I see things about another catcher and another outfielder/shortstop. Weiters and Desmond would both give this club more depth, but are they and Aoki the kind of guys to get this club over the top?

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      • By the way, where are all the pitcher rumors for our club? Or does the silence mean something significant is really going to happen? Feldman? Fister? Maybe a conversion of Nate Frieman? Sorry, the cynic got the better of me again.

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    • What confused me the most is the presumption that claiming Atkins off waivers suddenly makes Altuve a possible trade target. Is the writer thinking Aoki will play 2B?

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  12. In my mind, Lourdes’ signing with the Jays makes Kyle Tucker a keeper.
    We haven’t had a 3B for years and, all of a sudden, we talk about Moran and Davis as trade assets.
    Guys who are getting closer to the majors like Laureano, Stubbs and Tanielu aren’t valued as top tier prospects.
    Nolan Fontana and Andrew Aplin appear to be busts, Yet, here they are on the 40-man roster.
    Guys who are 18 and 19 are all at the top of the rankings and not near ready.
    It seems like when our high prospect young pitchers work their way close to the majors, there is some hesitation to move them into the rotation. I’ve waited for years, hearing the organization talk about Feliz. Then he skips AAA and when they move him up to the majors, they don’t know what to do with him. Devenski is the opposite. Becky was the only one who consistently talked about Devenski in the minors. Then he busts out, without ever going to AAA, and still the club doesn’t quite know what to do with him.
    Resigning Castro is like being on the freeway entrance ramp on a racing bicycle. It will work if there is a wreck ahead, but everyone else will run away and leave you when the traffic is moving. And the traffic is moving fast in September and October in the baseball world.
    I went back and reviewed the Astros’ team batting stats for 2016 and the Astros were between 14th and 19th in every major batting stat in baseball. We have to improve that lineup a lot, if we want to contend. Ten teams in baseball make the playoffs, out of 30, and two of those ten are only in it for one day.

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    • Yes, the age of the prospects (or rather the lack of age) struck me too, op. They area a number of years and a number of hurdles from the bigs. I don’t know why they are hesitant to try the younger pitchers in the rotation, just like I don’t know why they continue to use a development system that does not stretch pitchers beyond 5 innings in most cases. The key to a healthy mlb team is to develop pitching from within, because hiring it outside is a messy situation these days requiring long term commitments or lots or prospects.

      If the Astros are able to being in a couple more solid bats like Desmond they be so much improved with a full season of Gurriel and Bregman in the mix. I think players like Correa will improve if they have someone behind them in the lineup who makes the pitchers think twice about pitching around them.

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      • They are following the logic elbows blow out in the early twenties – likely from overuse as teenagers. I don’t think any position is being developed in a positive manner in our milb system.

        I hope we can do better than Desmond.

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  14. This particular post about prospects is very hard to discuss. The prospects are so carefully muzzled by the club that it’s hard to tell if they are even satisfied with their own performances.
    It’s even hard to talk about their futures because there is no way of knowing how the club regards them or if they will even be here in the spring. One thing I do know is that, when Luhnow speaks, it’s always vague, always guarded and nothing is to be believed as gospel. It’s always about doing everything to meet our goals “within reason” and we always come up short on expectations, because “within reason” usually means that some other club is going to get what we need, because those other clubs go “beyond reason”.
    Sorry, it’s been a long weekend and I got to see a bad football team from Houston manage to beat a truly terrible team from Jacksonville by the skin of their teeth. My goodness, the NFL is just horrible. And they think they will double their revenue in the next ten years.
    There are advantages to getting old. I can turn off all the games before they are over and there is no office to go to in the morning and have to listen to all the blabber about someone who laid down on the bench during the National Anthem to protest dove season.

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  16. It all comes back to credibility, or a lack of it. It’s an annual dance now. We’re going to open up the check book! Sure the payroll has inched up, but I think Crane has a bigger passion for making money than winning a World Series. In this business the best owner has be willing to wear both hats. This year we’re spending a batch of money to tear up centerfield at the park in order create more square footage to make more money. No doubt much time and effort was spent on those forecasts. But is the check book really going to get opened up to the point where we are building the club to beat the Cubs? That’s got to be our goal at this point. I remain dubious.

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  17. Assuming he is/they are not traded this off-season . . .

    1. Tony Kemp is going to need to show some seriously improved defensive skills in left field or he will be passed on the depth chart by Derek Fisher, Ramon Laureano, Jason Martin – and perhaps Myles Straw.
    2. A.J. Reed, Tyler White, and Preston Tucker are going to need to have one heck of an ST to make the club;
    3. Daz Cameron need to bounce back big time and have a good first half of the season or a lot of us will be tempted to write him off [too early, I know, but you just want to see SOMETHING from such a high pick].
    4. we will see if Michael Feliz is ready for prime time.

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  18. I read your comment op with interest because I did notice the lack of response to the topic. Now I did not add a bunch of seed questions – but still I can see where this is more of a read it, shrug and move on topic.

    Kevin – the Texans are somehow winning without getting winning performance at QB.

    daveb – Even if Crane opened up his wallet – would there be enough guys who would come here that we want to come here?

    Mr. Bill – I know Tony Kemp was below average, but is there no chance of redemption and better performance from him? You are not alone in not liking his performance much – if 2B was an open position would he be better thought of? Just wondering.

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    • Dan, that was my personal opinion only and wasn’t a jab at the post itself.
      I am almost numb at what is happening with all the players getting the QOs, rejecting them and then go into free agency knowing that a contender is going to lose a draft pick in order to sign them.
      If I were the Astros, and I truly was ready to spend money and go for it all in 2017, I would drop da bomb right now on Cespedes.
      1. If I’m going to go for it, I want the #1 player who also meets my #1 need: a big time outfielder. I don’t want to lose my first round pick for a second tier guy.
      2. The Dodgers and Red Sox and Yankees are waiting for the new CBA to see where the luxury tax is. Don’t wait for them to know where it is. Make them gamble on him, if they want to outbid us. We don’t have to wait to find out where the luxury tax kicks in.
      3. A five year deal to Yoenis ends the year(2021) before we have to decide what to do with Correa(2022).
      4. He’s young enough to gamble on.
      5. If he won’t take our best deal, it would still be early enough for plan B.

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      • I did not take it personally op – it is good feedback to know the areas of interest of folks and judging from the lack of comments you are not the only one struggling with this topic.
        I like your thought process on Cespedes – makes sense to me – I wonder where he falls in their wish list.

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    • Dan, I am in the minority, as I firmly believe in Tony Kemp. I may, in fact, be his biggest fan and supporter, because I personally see him as the high OBP, high-energy spark-plug guy at the top of the line-up that we have desperately needed since Craig Biggio started getting long in the tooth. Unlike others, I am not worried at all about Tony’s relatively unimpressive arm strength, because I know that we have the strongest arm in the organization, the right arm of Carlos Correa, to serve as his cut-off man.

      However much I personally believe in TK, though, I have learned to read the cards with this FO and to face reality. Despite a stellar milb career [.304 BA, .392 OBP], Tony is getting very little respect from anyone. His 2016 debut with a .217 BA and .296 OBP in limited playing time and only 136 PAs in 59 games at the MLB level did not showcase his skills. Seeing the way he was treated as a step-child by management [beginning with the FO, and including A.J. Hinch], and after reading extremely critical comments about him by others on this blog – including some whose opinions I have reason to respect – I just see the handwriting on the wall for the young man. He looks to be on his way out of Houston – and out of the Astros organization – pretty soon unless he puts together a miracle off-season and Spring transformation. If he goes, as I expect he will, I think we’ll see him again – doing what he does best for another team, while our lead-off guy continues to strikeout in about a third of his at bats, while he homers just enough to make everybody think he’s the second coming of Willie Mays.

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      • And did I mention that the first off-season acquisition of this organization was not a TOR or MOR pitcher, or a catcher, but was Nori Aoki – another left-handed, high OBP, low-strikeout, low OPS lead-off hitter with a highly questionable arm? The handwriting on the wall from that acquisition says: “Sorry, Tony Kemp, but you have been weighed in the balances and found wanting”. We are willing to pay an old guy $6M a year or more, after arbitration, to do for us what Mr. Bill thinks you could do for league minimum”.

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      • I had not considered Kemp when thinking about the Aoki trade. I’m not sure how both could fit in a five man outfield alongside Springer and Marisnick.

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      • Yes, Devin, because we must have Marisnick, with his career 66 wRC+ on this team, especially when we need someone to come off the bench and give us a strikeout.

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    • We keep talking about players who won’t come here, even for top dollar.
      I wonder why. I know what my thoughts on the subject are but I’m curious why others mention it.

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  19. OK, I am back on the grid and ready to comment. First let me say that I got to watch most of the games this past year, and eventually read all the comments. I would start to post (because of the delay) Tim, you and RJ, were wrong the middle of last month about…….. but doubted that anyone but me would have known what I was talking about. As to the team, as noted multiple times, we still need a catcher, OFer, a couple SPs, and a first baseman that can hit. During the early part of Bregman’s call up, I kept texting my friends, that he was making “good contact.” I felt (and feel) the same way about Tyler White. He did not produce as well as Bregman, but Reed gave us nothing. Reed needs to go someplace and get his batting eye back. Tucker was out of the majors most of the time, and had no chance to see him at all. Lets hope he heals and his bat that stays so long in the contact zone — hits something. Kemp is the Philip Nolan of the Astros. Finally, someone say “Be Patient” because once again, we get a “rumor” every 4 days about “Astros interested in…” but no action. Same story as last year, and before.

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    • “Tim, you and RJ, were wrong the middle of last month about…….. but doubted that anyone but me would have known what I was talking about.”

      Can you refresh my memory because you’re right…I don’t know what the heck you’re talking about in this comment?

      Also, Your last sentence and Dave’s dubious nature make me laugh. If it was January and nothing has happened then I can understand, but it’s not even Thanksgiving yet the cynical bloggers here are already assuming the worst. Life must be a complete joy for you guys. Next, we were never told in the past that the Astros were ready to spend money. They did increase the payroll, but never gave any false impressions they were going to spend heavily…until this year. So, why are we being critical when no one has landed a big fish yet this offseason? Is it simply just a lack of patience and wanting something right away? This is the first off-season where the Astros are committed to improving the team by pursuing a top level free agent. In the past they were improving the team thr0ugh player development and some mid-tier free agents, but the fact they have expressed an interest in Encarnacion and Beltran is encouraging. There is no guarantees, even if the Astros give the highest offer, that they will land any big free agents, but at least they are out there making contact and pursuing what they need.

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    • I had to google your Phillip Nolan comment, because I was clueless. Great reference of “The Man without a Country” as compared to “The Man without a Position” – loved it.

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  20. It’s great and fun that most of us here will differ on players, prospects coaching , GM, FO, but one thing it seems a lot of us agree on, is Crane. Will he ever step up and do whats needed to be a perennial winner, of just enough to make him and his band of buddies money and all of us hanging on like a bunch of fools waiting for that one or 2 great moves?

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  21. I sure hope that the FO is sandbagging the league on Martes and Paulino – because neither has looked like star material in real competition so far. Martes has a 3.30 lifetime ERA and a lifetime 1.20 WHIP AGAINST MINOR LEAGUE HITTERS!!!!! Paulino’s numbers are quite a bit better, but the problem is that he has only started a paltry 39 games in the minor leagues, and has pitched only 196 milb innings. For these two guys to be our best pitching prospects really does not bode well for us. Forest Whitley better be something special.

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    • Have you forgotten that Martes was 20 years old pitching in a league where the average player was 4.3 years older, and that he worked all year on his changeup, throwing it much more often because it was his weakest pitch?
      Has it occurred to you that David Paulino was only 22 years old and has never been allowed or able to throw 100 innings in his whole career. David Paulino needs to be given the ball every fifth game in Fresno next year and actually stretch himself out and be given a chance to get some rhythm and show what he can do?
      Rodgers never showed much of anything since he was drafted, until he was given the ball last season and allowed to actually pitch like a normal pitcher.
      The Astros are always messing with their pitching prospects.

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    • Becky, first, let me add that you and the other ladies did a good job of keeping me and others informed this summer. Second, if we have a “super prospect” he (or she) is still in school.

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    • I have looked high and low for even a really exciting one – and have come up empty. We have a ton of league average; no league leaders at all except Brady Rodgers. Let me illustrate how bad it is in pitching:

      At Tri-City we had zero pitchers who ranked in the top 20 in the New York-Penn league.

      At Quad Cities we had zero pitchers who ranked in the top 20 of the Midwest League.

      At Lancaster, we had one pitcher in the league’s top 20: Brock Dyxxhoorn – who had a 5.02 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.

      At Corpus we had two in the top 20 in the Texas League: Martes [3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP vs AA players, and Cy Sneed, 4.40 ERA, 1.29 WHIP vs. AA players]

      At Fresno we had Rodgers [2.86 ERA, 1.15 WHIP], Valdez [gone to FA? [3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP], Hauschild [3.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP], and Brad Peacock.

      Now that Musgrove and Devenski are with the big club, the cupboard is pretty bare in regard to impact arms.

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      • In regard to hitting in the minor leagues [among qualifying hitters]:

        At Fresno? No one in the top 20 in either BA or OBP.

        At Corpus? JD Davis was our best qualifying player, with .258/.323/.818

        At Lancaster? Outfielder Drew Ferguson was our best BA/OBP/OPS guy with an impressive .313/.410/.941

        At Quad Cities? 1B Dexture McCall was the best we had at .286/.352/.773.

        At Tri-City? 1B Taylor Jones was the best we had at .251/.354/.767.

        As you can see, there are no super talents anywhere in the mix. Drew Ferguson bears some watching. So do non-qualifiers like Kyle Tucker, Ramon Laureano, Myles Straw, Stephen Wrenn, Ronnie Dawson, and Garrett Stubbs. But quite frankly there really does not look like there is much help coming for a long, long time.

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  23. Jeremy Hellickson accepted his QO from the Phillies, but a whole slew of people including Cespedes, Fowler, Turner, Jansen, Trumbo Encarnacion, Bautista and Desmond turned the QO’s down…..

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    • There are only five “super” prospects in all of baseball. That’s five players rated a 6.5 on an 8.0 scale.
      Bregman was a “super” prospect. Now he’s a major league player.
      Martes is our highest ranked prospect, a 5.5.

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    • Baseball is risk/reward. If McCann hits .240 next year with 20 homeruns and can catch 80 games, he improves us. You have to be wary of a 33 year old catcher with that kind of mileage on the wheels with trending K rates. Is he worth a top notch prospect, or even group of good prospects, at this point?

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      • I read somewhere, I think from a guy at the New York Post, that the Yankees wanted Springer for McCann. You wonder sometimes if baseball writers are actually able to discern talent or if they’ve ever actually watched everyone play the game.

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      • I saw something on Facebook linking that article, Dave. They suggested Springer would be the headline with other smaller parts going back to the Yankees. Does this writer think the Astros would even consider trading Springer for McCann straight up? Even if the Yankees took on McCann’s entire contract the Astros wouldn’t give Springer up for him. It was a ridiculous article.

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  28. Huge positive in 2016. We’re not really “nesting” these guys away somewhere.
    Compare Astros contributions from rookies vs, say Rangers, and you find we put a ton of guys on the field and, for the first time in awhile, know where we’re at! They had Mazara, that’s it (negligibly, Rua, Gallo). Our list is exhaustive!

    In the midst of a grueling Summer that saw a lot of guys basically expire from the long season, unbelievable that Springer played every game, on that note.

    The answer to most of what Astros need to do will happen in a cyclone of interests – hard to predict who will look good in the Spring, who will be available, and who bounces back from various injury.

    As it relates to any chance we’ll find a Bregman from the listed crop, I lean toward giving about 5-8 guys a Real Shot at a Starting Position:

    My depth chart includes the possibility of platoons, versatility in Luhnow’s positioning, cost etc.

    1B – Gurriel/Gonzales/Valbuena/White/Reed
    Needless to say, we need 25-40% more production out of this group, and I’d like to see a Pearce signing if he recovers well, and doesnt become the ghost of Aubrey Huff. Keep in mind, a big name signing puts a lot of guys Out of Work!

    2B, SS –
    Altuve/CC/Bregman/Gonzales/Kemp
    Nuff said

    3B –
    Gurriel/Bregman/Valbuena/Davis
    Gurriel will hit as well as Bregman, and both are better defenders at 3rd than Alex. Good problem to have, I’d take any three here, anyday. I lean more toward Bregman in LF, than Yuli, but see little dropoff, either way w Dan’s mention of CC’s arm. I dont share Bill’s sentiment on Valbuena. I think he’s coming into his own, and comparatively cheap. He was absolutely feared, debatably the best glove on the team, excellent plate discipline, before he went down w hammy.

    LF –
    Bregman/Teoscar/Kemp
    I want to see Teo win this spot handily.

    CF –
    Springer/Laureano/Jake
    We’re so deep here that The greatest CF Morgan Ensberg has ever seen, Andrew Aplin doesn’t figure in.. We need Fowler back! Dont want another Gomez showboat or a noose of a contract in Cespedes.

    DH –
    I absolutely try to entice Beltran with 2/$22M as DH! Most of the fans who attend games arent old enough to know why we boo him, but it’s always been bc he plays for the other team, after he turned in the hottest post season we’ll likely ever see. What a treat if he mentored, showed our young guys how it’s supposed to look (like Cano in SEA). Gattis filled the spot admirably, but he still needs to stop chasing the sliders down/away. Ugly as Pence..

    RF –
    Springer/Aoki/Fisher
    I’d rather keep G Springer as happy as he can be! He’s the jewel of this team, despite only good to above average numbers – as he goes, so do we.

    C –
    Castro/Gattis/Heineman
    I like the Ramos move if possible, Astro killer McCann, or Weiters, but our staff is pretty obstinent that we have what’s needed in-house. Castro will take his light hitting, excellent framing & get a 2-yr deal elsewhere – Op will get his wish. I give credit for Gattis’ arm and power numbers.

    P –
    Eval LMJ long-term, and deal him if issues. I know I’m in a minority here, but you cannot have those kind of hopes/expectations to carry a team, and come up lame as he has. That really goes for every starter. I think we need a strong push out of 5 guys like Feliz, Musgrove, Peacock, Martes, Rodgers. Nobody seems to remember the 4.8 WAR we gave up for Eric Krause, but hoping we get significant contribution out of this group! I am far less hopeful in McHugh, Fiers and Keuchel, than anyone else I’ve read going into next season. Adding two starters, as we had the same mindset last year having Feliz, Feldman and Fister as possible #6 is prudent. Rich Hill would be nice, or Quintana if available.

    Relief –
    Sad to see Neshek go, although he was cost prohibitive, he brought a unique pitch angle, groundballer who made good adjustments back at the league. I’m sold that Giles is the man. He needs a quality changeup that looks something like his slider in order to keep them from sitting on heat. I like where we are from a prospects standpoint here. Plenty in the mix to choose from. I actually really like Valdez’ stuff, what’s the story there?

    I’d dump 5 A’s for McCann – A Singleton & A Sipp, AJ Reed, Arauz and Aplin. Most aren’t ready to give up on Reed yet, though. I just think he needs a good punch in the mouth bc he acts too soft. Fanning at the ball instead of driving it at the pitcher’s earhole.. Wake this kid up! He’s an oaf at first, too. Not a fan at all, until he starts punishing the baseball. Same with Preston Tucker and that dip in his swing. Is it possible the shoulder was the cause? At some point, we have to part ways with warm bodies.

    Also, I understand tenure, and taking advantage of team control, but youre paying Yuli sight unseen. Start paying the core 3 now! Do everything possible to keep them happy, and that starts by paying them respect instead of these scrap heapers, like Aoki $6-7M. He may have some value, but guys who are the heart and soul at half a mill?! Going to cause some cognitive dissonance real soon if not supplemented by endorsements and long/term commitment. The window of opportunity is drawing nigh. Springer already nixed a deal once, gonna have to do better than that.

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    • The only player I think the Astros will look to lock up long-term is Correa. Springer will be 30 when he becomes a free agent and someone will pay him a large contract that lasts into his mid to late 30s (36-38). I think the Astros will be better served letting him walk and, if it is still in the CBA, give him a QO at the end of his last season to collect the draft pick. Altuve will be 29 and turn 30 early in his first year after becoming a free agent. He will receive a monster contract and, again, I don’t think the Astros would be well served matching that contract. Correa will only be 26 and not even in the prime of his career when he first becomes a free agent. He’s the player the Astros will look to lock up long-term.

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      • If they make a strong offer before Correa starts his arb years and before both Springer and Altuve are free agents I think they can get him signed. Let’s say they come to him in 2 years with a 10/$275M contract offer. I think he and his agent will be hard-pressed to turn that down.

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  29. well governor, at the risk of being wrong, i agree with almost everything you said. excellent comment!!! a few minor differences in the pitching, but all in all i cast a vote for you.

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    • Another approach, barring injury and let’s say an “ample” bounceback from McCullers, DK and Collin McHugh however, and that is with an open door opportunity for Feliz, Musgrove and a surprising Brad Peacock, we have the makings of a solid staff already! Would you dare pluck one of these for a primetime bat? Or, reverse field and storm the market? I have a feeling we go after a few blockbusters, and if the price isn’t right, we’ll be anxious to see the progress of Paulino and Martes, in line with Musgrove’s 2016 call up. The key is going to be this McCullers character, who we’ve not really been able to “count on”. You know the name I haven’t mentioned is The Dragon himself.

      Here’s what I foresee. If we keep all these guys, AND push them w minor leaguers, new acquisitions, we’ll find ways to shelf them, as they lose starts to better pitching. In other words, I think we’re already pretty deep, its just been tough for Hinch to shuffle in a pennant race. Most fans agree with SP’s about their routine (and how contracts are tied to performance, ex the Fiers outburst for getting yanked), but in my mind, Hinch needs to use the hook more often. A lot of our woes came at his discretion. It’s not an easy game to predict. If you played the game you know, there’s little room for second guessing bc youre asking guys to simply put themselves In a Position to Win. You put your best foot forward, the rest is up to the baseball gods. Hinch needs more experience, along w good advice, to manage lockdown situations. There’s almost no excuse w the talent we have in the pen.

      They got stretched out bc starters didnt last long. This year, our arms are younger and the “vets” wiser. I’m not ready to be a cynic until July this go-around!

      We will spend money this year, despite having a decent farm. Something nobody ever says of us though anymore is ‘why dont we go after prospects in a trade?’ Maybe bc we trust in tweaking what we’ve got?

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  30. After that half-hearted comment on Reed needing a good bop to get in gear, I’m reminded of the morning a call-in came to Grenado on the radio, where Lance Berkman was his guest. The caller started saying how slow, how fat Elvis needed to put on some football pads and toughen up. To which Berkman invited the caller to the field for a little one-on-one session.

    If you’ve ever tried to coach your own kids, you realize even they have limitations, and God love ’em. It’s just a game, a past time. Not life & limb.

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  31. Last season we won every season series vs. our Division Opponents but one -the all-important one with the Rangers. We were 13-6 against both the Angels and the As, and were 11-8 vs. the Mariners. But we were 4-15 vs. the Rangers. What that means is that we are unlikely to improve our record against any other team in our division. We have to hold the line against the other guys, and improve significantly against the Rangers. What will it take for us to do that?

    1. We have to have an ace that actually pitches like an ace – and who is especially tough against the Rangers;
    2. We have to have at least two ‘Ranger-killers’ – guys in the line-up besides Altuve and Correa who absolutely feast on Rangers’ pitching;
    3. We have to do better at both OBP and BARISP against them, with fewer errors and baserunning blunders.

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    • Bill, Musgrove proved in his very first start he’s at least a Rangers tamer vs their ace, Darvish. We benefit from losing lineup holes in Gomez & Rasmus (probably Castro), getting a full year out of Gattis, Bregman and Yuli (to name a few). Meanwhile, TEX has to figure out what to do replacing Desmond, Moreland, Beltran, Gomez, Holland etc. Astros are 12/1 in Vegas, and ahead of the Rangers to win the WS. We have revenge, and more money to spend. And guess what? We are in the same place as them, after getting ousted in the WC. First place going into April! Neither of our teams had what it took down the stretch to overpower much. I don’t think anything we do this Winter is going to change that, except assembling the makings of, that gets red hot with the right chemistry in September. I agree TEX is the team to beat, but I know they feel the same about us… I can appreciate Dan’s point about anything can happen in the playoffs, but you could visibly see our team losing steam. We simply must do what it takes to leave enough in the tank next year.

      Where all this has led me is the thought that we should have rotated 8 guys in as starters over the first three months. We should have held onto Straily at least in AAA with Peacock, Feliz & Feldman instead of longman, should have gotten starts. If LMJ hadn’t pushed it so hard in the Winter and was told of plans for hybrid, he may have saved injury? I know it would never work bc guy’s contracts are geared toward 200 IP and awards, nobody wants a 6-man. But for the sake of an entire season, there just arent many guys as durable as the old days! I’d rather see pitchers defer more, to save a little for when it counts. Surely the organization feels the same with a tandem approach? If any team is capable of figuring out this dilemna on a player-to-player basis, of tracking results and thinking outside the box, it’s this one. I’m impressed with their lower appetite for risk in an effort for “next year”. Sometimes you have to cut battle losses, regroup, and assemble for war?

      I’m all ears!
      JD Martinez $11.7M stats compare to Beltran. You’re looking at 25 HR .285/.350/.520ish with either guy. Lot better than Rasmus!

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  33. Gov, great effort. But I’m not sure if any combination of guys you mentioned provide us with a squad that will beat a team like the Cubs. At least a couple of our young guys will need emerge as real difference makers. And pretty much every starter will need to have improved years over 2016. The pen will need to be just as effective, with lefty help too, but without being gassed in September. That’s why I’m hopeful that Tim is correct and I’m not as it applies to picking up a couple of very significant difference makers. I want a big, athletic bat for the outfield and I want a very solid rotation arm. And I also don’t want to lose Springer, Bregman, Correa, Gurriel, Keuchel, McCullers, Devenski, Giles, Gregerson and Gattis. Never thought I’d say that! I also want to resign Valbuena. I know, tall order, but that’s what I think it will take.

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    • Devin makes a good point about locking up CC, Tim. And dave, the question is where’s the big bat we won’t be outbid to replace Papi, Encarnacion, etc.?

      Take a look at Springer (5 WAR) vs EE (3.9 WAR), where the Blue Jay is seeking 5/125M. They’re almost the same, except Springer’s huge defensive edge. If we don’t get ahead of this trend and show the player we believe in him, we lose all the juice we lost by not selling high, like the 4 players we were destined to play out their contracts in; Feldman, Rasmus, Gomez, Valbuena. That 2017 noose includes, Sipp (and Singleton), unless they surprise. That No.17 pick this year better be Derek Jeter, and we better not pass him up!

      The big bats I’d look at are Holliday (although, not sure I can stomach it), and Beltran. If we got first half 2016 verson Ian Desmond, I’m alright with that. He’s a stop gap to Tucker, all things equal. Gardner is not much better than Marwin – really. Reddick struggled. Trumbo is a K machine. I like McCann, always have. Pearce can play all over the field, and rakes. That’s three or four names that are affordable, given the open plans we have to spend, multi links to rumors.

      Bottom line is we dont have to panic. Yet😳 I was never of the mind we spend that kind of money on Chapman. Not sure how the hell we make ourselves compete w Cubs in one offseason, but I’m being realistic that even if Crane opened up the wallet, the league isnt ready to give us Santa’s password. It’s going to take an effort from those who emerged late last season for the most part, our farm, and improving on bonehead mistakes. I like our make up. We were right there in it before the ASB, after a terrible start. Lots to look forward to..

      Bill, odds makers have us 12/1 ahead of the Rangers. I think they see an aged TEX dumping salary, and an Astros team replacing 6-9. Musgrove is a Rangers killer. Might be nice if LMJ is the pitcher we all hoped for, finally. I like our chances and revenge.

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  34. Rangers are making a play for Sale…….these are the guys the rangers are talking about giving up:
    Profar
    Mazarra
    Odor
    Two top pitching prospects
    The north texas team gave up a TON of prospects for Beltran, and Lucroy, not sure if all of these guys can pry Sale away. So……if that’s who the other texas team are willing to give up, we can cross Sale off our want list. You can bet your blue bippy that Chicago would want Bregman, Musgrove, Devenski and Springer, and I’m throwing ice water all over that trade. NO DICE.

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    • I hope the Rangers make that trade. I think it weakens their team and definitely limits their payroll flexibility going forward since the players they are trading away are minimum salary type players.

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    • I’m just going to go out on a limb and say any rumors involving Chicago teams have 0 credibility at this point. They are all about as legitimate as saying Luhnow tried to get Trout and Richards from LAA but balked at their insistence he include both the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny.

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    • I wouldn’t want the Rangers making that trade.

      You can think the world of Profar or Odor, but when a guy plays 2B like an all star, then you replace him with a guy that is merely mortal you won’t have the same negative impact you do with equal impact in your rotation.

      The Rangers with Sale means their top 3 starters, maybe even top 4, end up better than our ace – unless you are expecting that bounce back. That’s a lot of games where it becomes highly unlikely the bullpen is seen before the 6th and they enter with a close game or the lead, versus us using Fiers and being down 7-3 in the 6th inning fairly consistently.

      The Rangers should make that move regardless of the loss in offense – a any season Cy Young contender is FAR more valuable than an above average SS or 2B. I’m not saying we offer Chicago Altuve or Correa, but if they asked for a combination of Bregman, younger Tucker, Martes, Devenski, Abreu, etc., as long as its not the entirety of it, I will help them pack their bags.

      Our answer should never be Brad Peacock as a candidate for this rotation. For goodness sakes why? We know he has arm talent, and that can get him out of a lot. That arm talent means on any given day he is a candidate to throw 7-8 innings of shut out or 1 run ball. His lack of control also makes him a candidate on any given day to go 3 innings, approach 100 pitches, have 4 walks, and put us behind 6-1 before he is taken out. After 263 major league innings he has a 4.4 BB/9 rate, and that is just unacceptable. As long as he has options, he is a good stowaway at AAA, where I would give him goals to drop his minor league walk rate to 2.5 BB/9 or less, if he can do that then I know he can throw strikes, now it will be about learning to throw strikes to major league hitters without getting killed. At this point, I’m not convinced he can even do the first part, throw strikes.

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  35. If I were a Ranger fan, these would be frightful but exciting times. They go after it. Maybe they won’t look real smart ultimately, but then again, maybe they will.

    But on the flip side, I’d be chicken to offer up Springer or Bregman in a similar deal. But I’d probably give up Musgrove and Devenski and a couple of other guys. For Sale, I would contradict myself.

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      • Switch Musgrove for their choice of Moran, Kemp, J.D. Davis, Daz Cameron, or Ronnie Dawson, and I might be right with you on that. But three highly thought of young pitchers – two who have already impressed at the big league level – is just more than I think we can afford to give up, even for Chris Sale.

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    • Sorry they are going to start with Altuve and/or Bregman. Those fit needs for their franchise.

      We should certainly balk at Altuve, he isn’t only possibly the most valuable player to a team in baseball, but he is most certainly the best value in baseball that isn’t a 1st or 2nd year player, and given his performance maybe even more valuable than any of them not named Correa.

      I wouldn’t start my negotiation with Bregman, and I may even spend a few weeks feigning in negotiation that he is untouchable, but in the end, he is out of position for us and while we think the world of our young, emerging star, the truth is he is still an unproven commodity playing out of position – and you are talking about one of the 3-4 elite pitchers in the entire game. Sorry Alex, all the love for you, but Sale is a candidate to win 20 and a Cy Young any year over the next 4-5.

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  37. The Astros have signed RH pitcher Charlie Morton to a two year deal. He tore a hamstring and had surgery last season for the Phils. Some people are comparing him to Fister, but his 2-seamer averaged 93.75mph last year before his injury.

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    • I presume Strom thinks he can pull off something amazing. Signing a 33 y/o righty with a lifetime 4.54 ERA, a 1.441 WHIP, with a 9.6 hit/9 and a 6.3 K/9 in the National League, who is coming off surgery, no less, is not exactly going to fire up the fan base.

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    • Yes – another shoe has to drop following the two signings of Aoki and Morton. We still need a CF or RF bat. We now have too many starters unless Keuchel or LMJ aren’t coming healthy. We also need a C. I’d hate to see Musgrove or Devenski moved at this point and was hoping we’d get 150-180 innings out of both in 2016. McHugh has earned the right to pitch for us, and in my opinion if he’s your #4 or #5 starter then the rotation must be pretty strong. Hopefully someone wants Fiers (other than Luhnow). I’ve already made my case why Fiers is good enough for our rotation…but the problem is he’s not good enough for our postseason roster.

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    • Morton is a clone of McHugh so maybe he is the pitcher we are looking to trade. He has a high spin rate on his curveball and his fastball is about where McHugh’s was in 2014. The biggest concern with Morton is injuries, but if healthy, this could be a bargain since the only time he hasn’t put up a 1 WAR is 2012 and last year when he missed most of the year due to injury. 1 WAR is now going for around $8.5-9M/year.

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  39. Stellar off season so far Aoki and Morton, We are doing some dealing. I cant imaging how may hours of our brain trust were spent on these amazing signings.
    I’m getting goose bumps right now.

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    • Kevin, the Astros have acquired two major league players and have given up nothing.
      Nobody has done much of anything in baseball except the Blue Jays with Morales, and it was revealed the morning that the Astros were in the mix for Morales.
      The Braves signed two starting free agent pitchers who are over 40-years old.
      The two players the Astros have gotten helps set the table for their other moves.
      The Astros have talked to people and know what the FAs want and what other teams are going to require for trades. Isn’t it smart to thicken your purse before you go buying?

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      • To old tired dudes whoppie, same ol same ol so far, Yawn OP if that is what they are doing than Kuddos, i need to see that to believe it

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      • oldpro, I would agree 100% with you on this if it were 2014. The problem is we just gave up two spots on the 25 man roster for Aoki and Morton AND are going to pay each of them about $7M. That means only Keuchel and Gurriel will definitely be paid more than our new #5 starter AND 4th / platoon outfielder.

        I think this begs the question – if Luhnow has the opportunity to sign an impact player will he still have budget and roster spots to do so? Remember, I’ve voiced the opinion he botched 2014 winter signings by not trading the guys he was sure he’d move and ended up with too many guys for not enough spots.

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  41. I would be down right PO’d if we dealt Devenski or Musgrove. Unless you get a great deal and I have seen any at Ben Franklin’s 5 and dime.

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    • Trading is simple. The issue is not: ‘Would I like to have this player in a Houston uniform?’ The issue is: ‘Considering all factors, including the highest-end projections for the players we are giving up, would trading for ‘x’ player, assuming he has his worst year[s] ever, or gets hurt and can’t play for months at a time, make our team better than it currently is, and do so for the length of ‘x’ player’s contract?’

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    • Now that I have read the correct guy, I see why he was signed. Two years in a row he lead the lead in hitting other batters. He will be our “designated hitter.” And if he gets thrown out of the game, we lose nothing.

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    • Now that I read about the correct guy, I see why he was signed. He lead the league 2 years in a row in hitting batters. So he will be our “designated hitter.” Then when he retaliates, plunks a guy, and gets thrown out of the game— we lose nothing.

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  44. Morton’s curve had the highest spin rate of any pitcher in baseball in 2015 and has one of the highest ground ball rates over his career of any pitcher still throwing.
    This is exactly the kind of pitcher our front office likes to sign and work with Strom. I’m going to find where I read this and post it.
    Here it is.They talk about Morton near the end. Remember that he was injured and didn’t pitch much last season. When he did pitch, his FIP was good
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-phillies-are-curveballing-their-way-into-the-future/

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    • OP,

      This blog is full of cynics and no matter how much information you give them they will just say “Crane is cheap” and the Astros will never spend to improve the club. It’s a shame the Hot Stove League is almost over and there are no elite free agents available. Luhnow really bungled this off-season.

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      • Aoki hit .286 in 2600 PA with .353 OBP. Now, George, Jake Tony Teoscar Derek or Ramon can just roll over, or they can fight for a Starting Spot. Sounds like plenty of OF depth, though, on a shortened CF this year.

        Morton upticked his SO/9 just before going down last season, so Dallas, Lance, Michael, Chris, Brad, Mike, Collin and Joe might have something to say about their own territory. Lots of depth already if you’re Brady Rodgers or Francis Martes trying to parlay hopes.

        Re: the infield, the gauntlet is laid down we’re looking for a 1B. That threatens Bregman at 3B if Gurriel can’t play there, Gonzales, Reed and White. Also makes Valbuena expendable.

        Unless you see Luis Valbuena at 2/$14M a bargain, like me, and we stand pat at 1B. I’d rather see the hitting splash in Beltran and Ramos. Go after a Quitana trade, or another lefty. That should do it.

        But sure sounds like Luhnow wants to spend a LOT more.

        If I absolutely had to put a deal together for Sale

        Bregman or Musgrove
        Reed
        Paulino
        Fisher

        We wouldnt have to face him, but we will have to face Musgrove. I still dont like it bc Sale isnt cheap and its only 3 yrs control. He could get injured, and that’s huge potential young production out the door! Sale is hittable, and ask DK what a difference a year can make. Archer, smart cat is a righty – last year was terrible doesnt make him any cheaper. Hammel would be solid but $40M?

        I don’t mind waiting awhile…

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      • See that is where condescending arrogance is ugly and unnecessary Tim, we are all not cynics, we just love our team and get frustrated when we disagree with moves they make or don’t make. That;s what debate is all about.

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      • Gov, Aoki posted a 1.2 WAR. He’s a fourth outfielder on the best clubs. Springer came up with a 4.4+ WAR, depending on what system you use. George will not be fighting for a job anymore than Altuve will. Jake had a -0.2 OWAR and an excellent DWAR. He’s a defensive replacement. The other guys you mentioned have no established WAR. They are unproven. So right now, this club has one excellent outfielder, a couple of back up guys and a batch of unproven guys. I hope that changes in the coming weeks, because again, that is not enough to make us a good enough group to beat teams like the Cubs.

        Morton upticked his SO/9 over 17 innings. You can’t use that stat. Right now we’ve got lots of options for a rotation that simply will not compete with the best rotations in MLB. Again, I hope Luhnow finds more excellent pitching. We’ll need it.

        I agree with you on Valbuena. It allows us to put Bregman in left where he can help most right now.

        I also agree with Tim in that it is very early in the off season. I’m waiting.

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      • “To old tired dudes whoppie, same ol same ol so far, Yawn OP if that is what they are doing than Kuddos, i need to see that to believe it”

        That’s not debate, Kevin, that is condescending. Now, come down off that horse and join me in reality land.

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      • Morton has a chance to provide better production than Hammel at a fraction of the cost. However, and I acknowledge this, Morton also has a chance to miss a good portion of the season due to injury and we lose on that deal. I still think, considering the upside of Morton, it’s a gamble worth taking, especially considering how weak the SP free agent class is this off-season and the ridiculous cost most teams will have to pay for guys like Nova and Hammel.

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  45. For the Astros to win the Division [we’ll worry about the WS at the trading deadline near the AS Break], we need improvement in hitting, run production, and base-running efficiency more than we need improved pitching. Why do I say that?

    Because in 2016, vs. the AL, our pitching staff ranked 5th in ERA, 6th in WHIP and Quality Starts, 4th in K/9, 2nd in K/BB, and 7th in BAA. But our offense ranked 13th in BA, 8th in OBP and runs scored, and 9th in OPS and HRS.

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    • You are cheating a little on the pitching stats, Mr. Bill – when you look at starters only – they were 8th in the AL in ERA and 10th in WHIP.

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      • I get that, Dan. The site I looked at did not break down the rankings between starting and relief pitching. And since our relief crew – except for the first couple of months of Mr. Giles and the entire year of Mr. Sipp – was for the most part stellar, it makes sense that the biggest problems were on the SP side. But not having McCullers for most of the season, and replacing Fister and Feldman with Musgrove/Devenski/Feliz, together with any resurgence at all by Keuchel, should significantly improve our SP rankings even without a trade for a TOR [which would probably take Musgrove and Devenski, if not Martes and Paulino, to pull off]. What we absolutely cannot handle is the lack of any improvement in offense from CF, LF, DH, and 1B. That is where we got beaten up so badly to the Rangers – and other good teams. Springer did not hit well against them, and If they could get past Altuve and Correa, they were home free.

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    • Bill,
      Problem
      Solution

      Gomez OPS 595
      Ramos OPS 850

      Rasmus OPS 641
      Beltran OPS 890

      We lose 760 in Valbuena (presumably)
      But gain a lifetime 690 in Gurriel
      Steamer projects Bregman to 800
      Aoki is a 750 guy
      Gattis full year without the thumb injury, coming off his best year ever at 826.
      Altuve, world of confidence, I bet he works twice as hard this offseason bc of his late-season slump. I know he was very disappointed in his final push..
      Springer led the league in PA’s, his OBP slightly down from 826. He can do better, but leadoff, and last year’s bottom order stunk!
      Another big difference was 2015-2016 Correa going from 857 down to 811, slugging much worse. We have to give him more opportunistic chances, like protecting on both sides of the lineup. Driving the ball opposite field, as he’s had to adjust vs pull alignment has effected his power numbers also. Correa has to be challenged though to keep his head in the game, thriving on bigtime situations. His numbers depend on passion and motivation!
      I dont want to mess with a good vibe here, and trust the clubhouse and managers are in synch to make a run, whether by offense, defense and/or pitching. Plays that equate to .. A Win. Dont care how ugly, Sports Fans!

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  48. According to the article the Philly’s probably didn’t want to take a chance because of his medical history. So the Astros bet 14 mill plus incentives that he can stay off the DL.
    I seem to recall taking a chance on Gomez after the Mets backed out of a trade because of his medical history.

    You know if this franchise had an unlimited budget these signings might not upset fans but we desperately need to upgrade several positions.
    When I want something I save as much as I can so I can buy the best. Does that not apply here?

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    • When you don’t have a sizable budget you have to look for value. That’s exactly what they did with the Morton signing. Again, Fangraohs projects him for a 2.1 WAR in 2017. The only reason they got him for $7M/year was because of his injury history. His projections are close to Jeremy Hellickson who just received a $17.2M qualifying offer. I hope this helps explain this signing and price paid a little better.

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      • I am totally sick to death reading about the budget, and why this organization keeps picking through the garbage can for pitchers, I could scream. We have lived through some pretty tough years with this owner, and it’s time to put up or shut up.
        Either you are….or you aren’t, and if you aren’t sell the team to someone who will.

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      • Sorry, Becky, but the Astros are not the Yankees or Dodgers. They have a budget and they have to take gambles, at times. It’s easy for us fans to say ‘just spend the money’ when it’s not our money to spend, but the reality is that the Astros do have to stay w/in a certain budget.

        I find it ironic that you say they keep picking through the garbage can, but you have been one of the biggest opponents to the Astros trading their prospects for a TORP. Have you seen the pitchers available in free agency this off-season? It is a garbage can of trash. So, I ask you what would you have preferred the Astros do in regards to acquiring pitching this off-season? It’s easy to be critical if you don’t have any substantive suggestions on how to improve the pitching. Do you want to keep or trade Bregman and Musgrove? Do you want the Astros to pay Rich Hill $60M over 3 years? Can you offer any suggestions on how to improve the pitching other than being critical of the moves they do make?

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      • Tim, let’s face it, that Fangraphs projection of a 2.1 WAR in 2017 is simply a far off, fantasy land non statistic. There are several facts that simply do not support a 2.1. First of all, lifetime, he’s managed a -0.8 WAR. Lifetime. His one good WAR year took place when he was a relative youngster at 27. He put up a 1.9 over 171 innings, which is easily the most innings the guy has thrown in a season. Since that “big year” his WAR is zero. Yes, zero. And during those past five years, he’s averaged 93 innings a year. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that a 2.1 WAY is on its way. So I suppose Stromboli should tinker with the guy under the stands until July and then unveil his new Frankenstein after the All Star break wiith hope that Salty stays healthy through September and is able spin rate his way through a whole bunch of ground ball outs, before going on the DL in time for the first round of post season play.

        I have to admit, I don’t care a whole lot about spin rate or velocity over a 17 inning stretch in April of 2016. My dinosaur eyes see a guy at 33 who can’t stay healthy, can’t get left handed pitching out, and who has done nothing over the past five years. Doesn’t that lifetime WHIP of 1.441 over a career tell you anything?

        We all understand that the guy is a reclaimation project. And we have another reclaimation project on our hands because it seems our ownership group is simply not going to step up and pay what it takes to be a club in the mix with the big boys. We’ve long discussed the same issue over and over. Most of us believe that we’re going to remain a small market payroll in a mid market city, a city that Crane’s experts should have grown far more fans in by now. So we’ll be 23rd in payroll again, and guys like Altuve and Springer and others will keep marking off the calendar, just waiting for their chance to play for a real big league club in a real big league city.

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      • Yes, Dave, I am sure Steamer has a biased reason for projecting a 2.1 WAR for Morton next year. They are clearly financially motivated to see Morton succeed and, thus, this explains their projection for him next year. It has nothing to do with his increase in velocity and change in pitching motion that was showing significant signs of improvement until he was injured last year. Yes, Steamer is just a patsy for positive Astros projections and nothing else.

        “I also agree with Tim in that it is very early in the off season. I’m waiting.” Is this your quote? Is the sudden change in cynicism just a defense mechanism because I made a post refuting Becky’s statement? Am I getting on your nerves again?

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      • No Tim,

        Nothing has changed. I’m still a cynic and I’m dubious, but I’m also going to wait and see what happens before I condemn the effort. That 2.1 WAR, it’s not a biased result, but any system can spurt out erroneous guesses at further performance. This one is a real reach. Do you really think he’s going to post that 2.1?

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      • Dave,

        Collin McHugh gave the Astros a 3.2, 3.7 and 3.0 WAR the last 3 seasons. Would you have projected that when reviewing his stats prior to 2014? So, to answer your question, I think it is a very good possibility Morton will exceed a 2.1 WAR if he stays healthy. He should have a good chance to equal or come close to 2.1 even with some time missed due to injury.

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      • No, McHugh was a feather in the cap of this organization. Maybe the best thing they’ve done to date. But McHugh was healthy from the start, much younger and frankly did not have such an extensive background of being a crappy pitcher. That’s why I can’t see Salty as a Collin clone.

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      • Dave,

        Morton’s velocity is higher than McHugh’s in 2014, he has a higher spin rate and is one of the best groundball pitchers in all of baseball. You may not care about ‘spin rate’, but the Astros do and it was a big reason they took a flyer on McHugh, which paid off handsomely for them. Morton, if healthy, is a better pitcher than McHugh was in 2014. For a team that shifts more than any other team in baseball having a groundball pitcher like Morton, with his velocity and spin rate, has the potential to be a very decent pitcher. Many fans on this blog were very critical when the Astros picked up McHugh off the scrap heap even though he didn’t cost the Astros any money (in baseball parlance). Morton has the potential to be better than McHugh if, AND THIS IS A BIG ‘IF’, he remains relatively healthy. There simply isn’t much pitching available on the free agent market and I’m guessing the Astros would rather spend big on someone like Encarnacion or Cespedes instead of Rich Hill. They don’t have a bottomless pit of money available, but they definitely have some cash to spend. Would you rather they sign Rich Hill or Encarnacion/Cespedes? The AAV will probably be relatively close for either player. I can see why Luhnow would rather gamble on Morton and then pursue the big bat they desperately need instead of wasting all his money on a 36-year old pitcher who also has an injury history.

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  49. I’m sorry but I’d rather see the Astros make do with the Spring Training Facilities in Kissimmee and keep Tal’s hill as is so they could afford a 17 million dollar pitcher instead of one who projects to be good if he stays healthy.

    Other teams are making plans to acquire known talent while we keep trying to piece things together with the left overs.

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    • Well, the move to WPB will provide more money for Crane, not less, so that debunks this theory. I am indifferent on Tal’s Hill, but the cost to remove it should be more than offset by the restaurant being put in to generate money for Crane.

      Now, what teams are making plans to acquire known talent that the Astros aren’t? The Astros have acquired 2 players this off-season that project to slightly improve the team. Most teams, including our rivals to the north, haven’t done anything yet. The Astros have been in contact with several agents for players that are free agents, but the deals for players of the caliber of Encarnacion very, very rarely happen in mid-November. Why don’t you hold off on your criticism until late January when the Hot Stove League should be just about finalized? Do you expect the Astros to make a big splash this early in free agency when none of the big free agents have signed and are still available? I really don’t understand your frustration when the season just ended 2 weeks ago. This is why I am so annoying and condescending on here because I keep reading the same garbage without any justification. The constant complaints from the bloggers here are, for the most part, unwarranted.

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  50. I’m trying to be patient and keep my mouth shut but I see our team going down the same old path while everyone else gets better.

    Where are we going to be when Seattle, Oakland, & that California team from 2 cities get their act together?

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    • Who’s gotten better, Sandy? The Blue Jays signed Kendrys Morales, but have not signed Encarnacion, Bautista or Saunders? Have they gotten better? The A’s traded away Danny Valencia? Have they gotten better? The Ranger have not signed Desmond, Beltran or Moreland? Have they gotten better? The Yankees, Red Sox and Indians have not made any moves so far, Have they gotten better? Please enlighten me and the rest of us here on exactly who has gotten better by the middle of November.

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      • I did not say they had gotten better. I said when they get better.
        My point is time is running out for the young core of this team and I don’t see anything coming along to replace them. Will we have to rebuild and bottom out again to get several years of top draft picks?
        I was under the impression that when the rebuilding was completed we would start adding quality free agents. So far I haven’t seen any ” quality “.
        Maybe because other teams lay out a plan for what they would like to accomplish while our leader talks in vague riddles.

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      • “but I see our team going down the same old path while everyone else gets better.”

        Sandy, this is your quote. You’re implying that everyone else is getting better. You didn’t say “but I see our team going down the same path and everyone else WILL be getting better”. Your post was in the present tense, not future.

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      • Also, it’s only November 17th and no one has signed a quality free agent. Why are you making this an issue so early in the off-season? Luhnow said they were going to be aggressive, but he didn’t say they were going to be aggressive in November. Pitchers and catchers don’t even report for another 3 months.

        Gregerson and Neshek provided quality. Gurriel looks to be a quality addition so they have added quality. Rasmus provided quality in 2015 so I’m not sure what you mean.

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