Jun 27 2016

Anatomy of a Houston Astros’ streak

Between May 24 and June 26, the Astros have run off an impressive 22-9 streak. A few facts about that run…..

  • The Astros are 5-1 in one-run games in those 31 games
  • They are 8-3 in extra inning ballgames.
  • They are 10-7 on the road
  • They are a tough to beat 12-2 at home
  • They have outscored their opponents 155-114, which is an average of 5 runs to 3.7 runs
  • In their wins only, they have outscored the opponents 136-70, which is basically an average of 6-3
  • On May 24th they were 17-28, fifth out of five in their division
  • They were 10 Games back of Seattle for the division lead and 7.5 games back of Texas for the second Wild Card
  • On June 26 they had charged up to 39-37
  • This put them in second place and 10 GB of Texas for the division lead, but only 1.5 GB of Toronto for the second Wild Card
  • It should be noted that as strong as the Astros have played in the last month, the Rangers have been an insane 24-8

So, can the Astros maintain their charge? Even though the division seems like a mirage a long way in the distance, the wild card is easily in reach. What do you think?

Advertisement

164 comments on “Anatomy of a Houston Astros’ streak”

    • I think you all might be over thinking this one. The problem is that Fresno had Reed, Singleton, Duffy, Moran, and White. Bregman was planned for promotion and they aren’t moving him out of the infield – that is the best place for him long term and his defense needs a lot of work. White was sent down to work. Singleton and Duffy arent playing well enough to justify it. Moran showed that he needs some work. Logjam of mediocrity.

      I’m with you that it has to get broken up, though, and one option is via trade.

      Like

      Reply

      • So Reed might have gotten promoted to make room in Fresno? He’s a guy that should be playing everyday and we can’t give him that opportunity with the big club. Unless a trade is imminent, I’m still scratching my head.

        Like

      • No, he gets promoted to audition for a full time role with Houston. If he fizzles out, they send him down and recall either White, Duffy, or Singleton. With a heavy load of RHP they figured it was a stretch Reed was likely to do well against.

        Like

      • But who is your better option? Since Worth was promoted, Reed was the best hitter at Fresno. I don’t think they see Marwin as a viable 1B solution… especially against RHP.

        I’m sure they wanted to promote or trade Singleton, but his avg around .200 makes that tough.

        Like

      • I agree with Devin. Reed had been red hot over the past 2 weeks and with the glut of RHs the Astros were getting ready to face it made sense to call up Reed. Obviously, he is struggling, but it’s only been a few games and the team is still winning. I think once he gets that first hit it will relax him and he will perform adequately. Besides, as Devin stated, it isn’t like the alternatives were any better. Marwin will still get plenty of playing time, but I can see why the Astros prefer Reed and his power potential at 1B.

        Like

      • I think Luhnow’s plan was always to call up Reed in June, from ST. He got another year of control, and waited long enough that he may even avoid super 2 – unlikely but we won’t know until the end. I don’t think it’s unusual. Reed’s poor start made it a non issue for him publicly unlike Correa, but he started playing better and he could stick to the plan.

        Like

  3. I’m in Dallas visiting my sister and her husband for a few days. When the idiots in arlington, gave it up tonight I had to go to my bedroom and do a happy dance, because my brother in- law was FURIOUS!! I just casually mentioned that our boys just swept the Angels for the second time in two weeks! I can remember McCann doing that to US when we were in the NL!! I loved the look on Banister’S face when that second homerun went outta the park!! HA! HA! HA!!!!!!!

    Liked by 3 people

    Reply

    • Maybe this is the kind of loss that leads to a bit of a funk. It is crazy that the Astros have gone 25-9 and lost a half game to the Rangers in that time.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  4. For the upcoming ChiSox series it looks like we draw righty Miguel Gonzalez [5.17 ERA, 1.54 WHIP] in the first game [vs. Fiers], the infamous lefty genius Chris Sale [2.79 ERA, 0.98 WHIP] for the second game [vs. Fister], and lefty Jose Quintana [3.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP] for the last game before the AS Break [vs. McHugh].

    It is always interesting to play the White Sox. At least we get them at home – and Altuve, Correa, Springer, and Valbuena are hot.

    Like

    Reply

    • The Astros will reach the halfway point after the second game of the Chisox series – game 81.
      The All Star Break will be a week later after the July 10th game with Oakland.
      This will be a very challenging week end series for our hitters.

      Like

      Reply

    • Gattis has been hitting well, also, and he had a homer and a single off Sale when we faced him in May. Our record after that loss was 17-25. The Astros are playing a lot differently right now. Almost every guy in our lineup is hitting 50 points higher for the last six weeks than they were for the six weeks before they faced him in May.
      But Game One is where the Astros have been setting the tone for most of their successful series. That’s the one we want to get in our pocket.

      Like

      Reply

  5. The Altuve extension assumes both parties want one.
    The proposed 8/$160mil pays out an extra $44 million in the next three years that Altuve is already signed for. That is a ton of cash to fork over to anyone who is already signed. I would like to see an extension that looks like 10/12/14 for the next three years and then 20million for the next five. That makes Altuve a lot more in the next three but keeps the Astros with a good deal and then guarantees him $100 mil for his 30-34 years and still leaves him alternatives beyond that.
    Everything depends on whether he wishes to be an Astros player for the long term.

    Like

    Reply

    • If you ‘buy’ Jose now, you buy through at his highest value. He’s hitting .47 points above his career average and his OBP is .80 over his career average. I love Jose, but even I don’t think he can keep up this crazy pace. Let’s talk in the off-season.

      Like

      Reply

  6. You know back in 2014, after 12 games in the bigs, George Springer had a .170 BA and a .477 OPS and had 1 run scored and 2 RBIs (Reed has 2 runs scored and 1 RBI after 4 games and of course no hit yet). I want to see more of him and want to see what he can bring to the table. He is not hurting them right now because the team is so hot. I just don’t want him to get discouraged.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • I agree, Dan. He has the opposite problem of Tyler White – who came up and was immediately [albeit temporarily] successful at an unsustainable ‘player of the week’ level. Tyler hit his first low spot and appeared to panic – especially since no one else on the team was doing well at all. A.J. Reed has much less pressure on him to put up superstar numbers immediately. He can ‘ride’ along with the guys who are tearing it up. He has nowhere to go but up – and he WILL get that first hit sometime.

      Like

      Reply

      • By the way, does anybody think Reed will start vs. the two White Sox lefties we will face [Chris Sale and Jose Quintana]? If he is going to get that first hit before the ASB, he probably needs to get it Friday night against the righty Gonzalez.

        Like

      • He has seven more games after the white sox to get a hit before the allstar break, if he doesnt get one during that series.

        Like

      • Speaking of Tyler White – has anyone noticed that since returning to the PCL, he has not walked even once – and has struck out 7 times? Historically he has always walked more than he has struck out. What did we DO to that young man?

        Like

      • I thought Tyler White did not look like the same hitter after about 10 days. Was not staying back, was not hitting to all fields, etc. For a guy who was not that much of a power hitter in the minors, perhaps hitting all those early dingers got him out there diving for pitches and trying to pull everything.

        Like

    • I agree Dan, I want him to succeed but he already looks discouraged. The last thing he needs is to be put on the bench for an extended time to think and worry.
      Every time he comes to bat I hold my breath and hope.

      Like

      Reply

    • One significant difference was that Springers minor league stats at the time pretty much made it impossible NOT to bring him up. We had a lot of discussion about the delay back then. Reed has not shown stats anywhere close to what Springer put up in AAA ball. So I’m still wondering what the hurry was with Reed.

      Like

      Reply

      • To be fair Reed was on the DL and got off to a very slow start in Fresno. His numbers over the past 2 weeks were very good and a sign he might have been ready to be called up. It’s still early so I’m not going to say he shouldn’t have been promoted. He has these 10 games before the ASB to see what he can do.

        Like

  7. Think all they need to do for Reed is tell him to breathe when he is at the plate and loosen his belt 1 notch. He is trying to look to stealth.(-;

    Like

    Reply

    • He was elected as the starter and Hoyt was elected as the reliever. 13 of the 30 players are elected. Mike Hauschild was also named to the team.

      Like

      Reply

  10. The Yankees just completed a take-down of the suddenly human Texas Rangers. Final score 2-1. The Rangers only managed 4 hits against Pineda and 3 relievers, while striking out a whopping 16 times. We gain 1/2 game without even putting on the uni.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

      • We probably won’t get much help from the Twins. If they can hang in against Texas starting pitchers maybe they can help wear down their bullpen.

        Like

      • Twins at home is actually not the easiest proposition. After giving up 3 of 4 to begin June with the Rays, they have virtually split with the Marlin, Red Sox, Phillie Yankee visitors.

        Both teams will be trying to set the tone as they play again in a week in Arlington.

        All eyes will be on BAL though tonight to see if they can smash their way into history. They are the AL team to beat, in my mind.

        Btw, it’s as good a time as any to say that Marwin has earned his pay already, and I add him to a 2-yr core group right now for $7.5. In fact, he isnt blocking Tucker – as you said, Dave and Devin? He’s not blocking Moran or White, huh, Op? Worth is certainly not ready. Bregman, Teoscar and Fisher are yet unproven. And lets talk about Reed. If he doesnt make contact in the White Sox series, the questions will persist. While I think he belongs, of course, the “holes” in our lineup include him, Castro, (Rasmus and Gomez, now to a lesser degree). Watch who opposing teams pitch around. Those are the guys we have to sign.

        Marwin needs polish in the OF, but he made a helluva full sprint grab yesterday, backing it up with a routine misjudged ball he let sail overhead. I like his future, go-to commraderie from the core guys, swagger and his incredible versatility includes him as a replacement to eight guys just mentioned. I disagree with the comment they dont like him at 1B. Its like having an extra SS on the field with those shifts.

        A big congrats to Luis Valbuena and a 360 OBP! I dont see him “evening out,” Mr Bill. I see him feared by the other team’s pitchers.

        Where I eat crow is with Tyler White. And lets not forget Keuchel. Who would have thunk Kazmir having a better 2016?

        Here’s a question: what happens when DK goes 8-18, and we realize he’s definitely not an ace? Do you adjust the thinking that he belongs in the core, and where’s a LHP replacement?

        Trim the fat week: Sipp, Reed, Worth, Jake. All with potential, all on the bottom of my depth chart. They tried sitting Reed and letting him confer with Hinch. My advice is shorten the swing, and wait for the one FB (cookie) he will see per AB. The league saw his first two shots and adjusted toward off speed. If he cannot hit them, then certainly dont swing, err, fan at it! Stand there and take til they throw dead red. He’s swinging at pitches which end up way out of the strike zone. Trying to do too much has turned to just relaxing into looking up into space for Jesus. He better find himself soon bc we werent getting Freddy Freeman numbers out of 1B, but we certainly arent paying them either.

        Like

  12. Another look back note: on June 30 last year the Rangers were 40-38, 5 games out and of course went on to win the division by 2 games.

    Rangers W-L record this year is 6 games better than their pythagorean projection, which is a LOT for 1/2 a season. Their 2nd best pitcher Colby Lewis in on the DL for quite awhile (and he’s 36) and Darvish and Holland are both still on the DL. I think they will fall back to the pack somewhat.

    Like

    Reply

  13. This is me ((((( grinning ))))) from ear to ear about the Yankees rangers game today!! Walked it off because of a wild pitch!! Man….couldn’t happen to more deserving team!

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

  14. This year’s sixth round pick is Stephen Wrenn out of UGA. Tonight he is playing in his 13th professional game and has hit his sixth home run. He has 11 RBIs. He has a nice little double to go with it, but that probably lowered his SLG. He’s not just power because he’s hitting .340. In 50 ABs he has nine walks and 8 Ks. But, it’s early. Wrenn is playing for Tri-City, where most of our top college picks start out.

    Like

    Reply

  15. Teoscar and Bregman get to start their AAA experience against a 31-year old 9-year MLB veteran, Kyle Kendrick. That should be a good test

    Like

    Reply

  17. It’s 21-1 Fresno in the top of the sixth. Bregman with 4 hits, Tucker with 4 hits and 6 RBIs, Kemmer with 3 hits, Moran with 2, Teoscar with 3. The only guy in Fresno’s lineup who is hitless is Tyler White and he has 2 walks and an RBI.
    Kendrick gave up 9 hits and 10 runs in 3.1 innings.

    Like

    Reply

  18. Cy Sneed gave up three runs in his four inning start tonight in a 3-1 CC loss.
    BUT! Kyle Smith was the tandem guy and he threw 5 shutout innings giving up 3 hits and no walks. Smith is starting to round into shape after TJ surgery last year. This was his fifth decent outing in a row.
    After Derek Fisher struck out for the 4th time in 4 ABs in the eighth inning, he got tossed by the home plate umpire. I’d bet Derek might have said something.
    There were 20 strikeouts total in this game and 13 of them were called strike three.

    Like

    Reply

    • My son was at this game and said the umpire was a wee bit generous on the strike zone.
      He was a bit disappointed he would not get to see Bregman at Corpus and Bregman did not disappoint at Fresno.

      Like

      Reply

  20. I get that some have not liked the trades Luhnow has made and some definitely will not work in the Astros favor, but there is still plenty of talent in this organization and, if the rumors are true, the Astros are expected to spend big in the International market this year. This team is still set up to compete for several years and I think the slow start in April this year was more of an aberration than what we are seeing now. There will probably be some more trades this year, and some of you will groan and probably not like them, but I still think they are heading in the right direction.

    Like

    Reply

  21. Does anyone think Bregmen will be brought to the big club this season given Valbuenas resurgence and Marwins consistency and Assuming Correa remains healthy ?

    Like

    Reply

      • DH has been a black hole since the team moved to the AL and it makes no sense that it is this bad. Maybe the problem is that the DH sits next to Dave Hudgens the whole time and does not get to go into the field and clear his head of whatever nonsense is being sent his way.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Valbuena has been a key to the club turning things around. But his lifetime OBP is still .316 and OPS just over .700. It would be wonderful for him to keep doing what he’s doing, but based on his career stats, he’ll be coming back to earth sooner than later. If Bregman keeps hitting in Fresno, I think we’ll see him.

        This club will only get better if Marwin ultimately moves back into his utility role. Ideally, Reed will start hitting and take ownership of first. I think right now anyway, the plan is for Reed and Bregman to take over the two corners. I’m good with that.

        Like

  23. I did want to point out that there is a new post that for the moment is placed in the second position on the home page instead of the top spot. Look for Goofy.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

Gravatar
WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out /  Change )

Cancel

Connecting to %s