2016 Astros: Who do you think they are?

There is a point in the classic “bad guys as quasi-heroes” movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, where Paul Newman and Robert Redford just cannot shake the posse that is pursuing them. The posse is close enough to be seen, but far enough away to not be identified. At this point Newman mouths that famous quote, “Who are those guys?”

Similarly, it is extremely difficult to look at the Jekyll and Hyde Astros and know who they really are.

  • Are they the early season 17-28 underachievers or the Johnny-come-lately 20-8 overachievers of the last month?
  • Is George Springer the .296 BA / .953 OPS beast of May or the .190 BA / .613 OPS wimp of June?
  • Is Doug Fister the soft tossing injured, struggling pitcher of 2015 or the 2016 ace of the Astros?
  • Is Dallas Keuchel the brilliant 2015 Cy Young Award winner or the 2016 Cy Old Award stinker?
  • Is Carlos Gomez the .136 BA / .459 OPS Lost Boy of May or the solid .279 BA / .802 OPS contributor of June?
  • Is Luis Valbuena the crummy producer of an April .540 OPS or the purveyor of a strong .874 OPS ever since?
  • Is Ken Giles the lights out pitcher who posted a 1.56 ERA with 3 HR in 115 IP with the Phillies or the deer in the headlights pitcher who has posted a 5.40 ERA with 5 HR in 30 IP with the Astros?
  • Is this the team that could not come from behind for the first 10 weeks of the season or the one that has suddenly found its magic, mojo and walk-off might?

This could go on and on. It is no wonder that after 73 games this team is only one game over .500. There has been a see for every saw on this teeter totter of a season.

It is also no wonder that there are as many folks doubting this team going forward as believing they have turned the corner. Both sides have reasonable arguments for their sides of this argument.

So, from your standpoint…..who are those guys?

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185 responses to “2016 Astros: Who do you think they are?”

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  1. This perhaps the hardest questioning that you have given to us in a long time. There is so much room for bickering here. Are you sure you want to do this?

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  2. George Springer- I think he is the .270/.350/.490 guy we will se for the next four years. I think he will steal less bases than we hoped for and will be a 22 HR guy. I think he will be a high K, high BB guy who will be a good outfielder.
    I think if he played for Joe Madden he would be a superstar. But he doesn’t.
    Doug Fister- One of the most likeable guys I have ever seen in a dugout. Underrated as a teammate. Last year he was at his worst and this year he is at his best. For the rest of the year I think you will see him perform more like he has this year, but he is not this good all the time.
    Dallas Keuchel is a guy who needs to throw a little harder and who needs a slider that snaps, rather than swoops. Batters have adjusted. He needs to adjust back.
    He probably is the pitcher who is in between what we saw and what we see.
    Carlos Gomez- a player who always depended on his youth and athleticism, and now that he is older and has lost those two traits, he is on the downside because he never learned to think like a good hitter and cannot make up for his bad habits in the outfield and gets burned too much. I like that he has toned down his antics a lot in the last six weeks. That indicates a change in his thinking.
    Luis Valbuena- Look at his career stats. He is that guy!
    Ken Giles- There is a reason why relievers are most successful as they approach 30. Giles is a guy who hasn’t learned to think like a hitter. Once he listens and learns what a hitter is thinking, he will become a good relief pitcher. Last season, the Phillies faced a terrible division and every team in that division struggled. He had it easy. This is harder. He’s facing better hitters now and he needs to make better pitches and locate better. He also needs a third pitch that batters have to be wary of. He doesn’t have that. He throws too many flat, fat sliders and too many flat, fat fastballs. He needs to get better.

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  3. What about Colby Rasmus?
    April – .263 / .400 / .579
    May – .194 / .250 / .255
    June- .258 / .313 / .371

    Castro:
    April – .140 / .271 / .240
    May – .268 / .402 / .507
    June- .189 / .302 / .378

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    • They definitely fit the profile of this post – I just got tired last night. I think both these guys are somewhere between the highs and the lows.

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      • I don’t think they are between the highs and lows Dan, I think they are highs and lows. What I mean is you are probably going to be hard pressed to find a year of their careers where every month is about the same. They get hot, they get cold. When Rasmus is hot, he can carry. He carried us into the playoffs last year when the rest of the team looked like it was on fumes. He was incredible for about 15 days. He has these bouts of inconsistency though where he just stinks for 3 weeks at a time. I wish there was a way to know when he is going to do either before the point of hindsight, but you just keep writing his name in and enjoy the ride when it comes.

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      • Steven your point certainly occurred to me even while I was asking this question. So many of these players operate at such extremes and when their cycles synch (good or bad) big things happen and it is not always good. I would think a talented hitter like Altuve has a much smaller range and a lot more consistency month to month.

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  4. I have no idea about where this team is headed the rest of the season. At least with catching up to .500, there’s reason for hope.

    I think the Astros are about to be buyers, which with Luhnow, is scary. Are we about to lose a Reed, Musgrove or God forbid, Bregman for something less than a Chris Sales. I would rather keep these players and trade Carlos since other teams might have an interest now.

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  5. I think that, if our starting pitching continues to improve, our bullpen continues to shine, and Altuve, Gonzales, and Correa continue to do their best hitting in the late innings in clutch situations, we have a good enough team to finish 2nd in the AL West, and possibly sneak into the 2nd wildcard spot. That means I see us being somewhere in the middle between the early season 17-28 underachievers and the 20-8 overachievers of the last month.

    I have pointed out in great detail where I think our weaknesses are, so I will not restate those things.

    I think George Springer is just finding out how good he can be. Whether he steps into that huge shadow of God-given talent is all up to him. I hope he sees what happened to Carlos Gomez as a lesson he needs to learn early in order not to repeat Carlos’ career trajectory.

    I think Doug Fister is a lot better than I gave him credit for – especially after that horrible start jaundiced my view. I am glad he is on this team. I hope he likes it here and decides to stick around.

    I think Dallas Keuchel is in a down year. I think he read too many of his own press clippings. I think he got too full of himself, and forgot where he came from. I also think, however, that he is smart enough and talented enough to go back to the drawing board in the off-season and get back to work – with the realization that he actually DOES still have something left to prove – to himself, to the league, and to the fans.

    I think Carlos Gomez could contribute some badly needed offensive punch to this team the rest of the way. For the sake of his teetering career, he had better. I no longer trust his defense, however, and so I see him as our DH – if he can get his BA up to .260 again and his OBP up to at least .315. If anyone is traded, though, I hope it is him. He’s an FA, he isn’t worth anywhere near the qualifying offer [to this team, at least, with Hernandez, Fisher and even Jake from the State Hospital waiting in the wings]. Plus he doesn’t have good memories here – so it’s best to take advantage of his mini-resurgence over the last month and get what we can from him in trade before he walks.

    I think Luis Valbuena loses that race with you badly, Dan. And I most certainly don’t see him continuing to hit 28 points over his career average for any significant period of time. I expect him to revert to Mr. strikeout/pop-out, any day. I’d let Danny Worth play 3rd base and see if he can do any better.

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  7. In the previous post I left out Ken Giles. That is because to be honest, I don’t know who he is. He throws hard – though not 100 mph as advertised. But so far he has gotten massacred way too at just the wrong moments for me to consider him a closer. I’m not giving up on him, mostly because of the huge haul of talent he cost. I saw Velasquez as being our future #2 behind McCullers, with Keuchel, Feliz, Devenski and Musgrove fighting it out for the last two spots. But dang it, it’s the mid-point of the season and thus far Mr. Giles not been worth even 1/2 of the haul the F.O. gave up to get him. I hope he has one heck of a 2nd half.

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  9. Keuchel against Volquez tonight. Deja vu, anyone?

    And does anyone remember what happened involving Volquez and the Astros on July 1, 2015? Hint: Wear all the protective protective gear you can find, George – you too, Jose and Carlos!

    When Volquez hit Springer on July 1 last year, George was hitting .264 with 13 home runs, 29 RBIs, 43 runs scored, and 14 stolen bases. This year his BA is two points lower, he has two less runs scored, and he has a lot less SBs, but he has 2 more HRs, and 13 more RBIs. George, please be careful out there.

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    • I hope tonight ends the Volquez mastery of the Astros. When this night is over, he needs to be 6-1 against us lifetime, with a significantly higher ERA against than the current 2.70. DK, if you need some motivation to break it off in the Royals, just look at their historic batting averages against you, son.

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    • We are past all that…with a score to settle on the field. End of this series, we’ll all be pleasantly surprised, me thinks.

      and I quote Op, Springer is a good outfielder Lol. Gotta do better than that, my friend!

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  10. Any bets on who the Royals are gonna hit this series? George? Altuve? Correa?
    You can BET one of our good guys will get plunked. The commissioner is watching the Royals pitchers very close…..you can take that to the bank.

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    • Strangely enough, Volquez only seems to hit players who hit really well against him. The best hitter against him in our line-up is George Springer [.500 career]. The second best is Jose Altuve [.429]. After that its Rasmus and Valbuena [.300], then Gomez [.286]. Gattis has only hit .125 off of him, Castro has never gotten a hit off of him at all, and Carlos Correa has never faced him.

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  11. I wouldn’t be concerned about too much arguing OP. They are who they are. Inconsistent. No argument about that. There is a history of streakiness in a lot of these guys, its not just this year or this year/last year.

    I am glad to see Fister doing well because it’s good for the team – maybe the biggest reason for the turnaround – but I didn’t see it coming. When he was a kid pitcher for Detroit I thought he was going to be very good, but multiple teams later I thought I was just wrong. He is also pitching for that bigger contract, so some motivation may be attached.

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  12. On Gomez – He has a 10% lower rate than usual at swinging in pitches in the strike zone this year. He is at 18.6% swinging strike percentage – way higher than usual. He is swinging less at strikes, and making less contact when he swings at strikes. His overall contact rate is down over 10%. In my eyes he has never really been a stellar hitter even in his prime, he never excelled at any one tool outside of stealing bases, and when you add those factors to a guy that already swings at pitches outside of the strike zone WAY too much you get the disaster that has been Carlos Gomez.

    That said, I don’t think you can move him at this point IF he is going to be a semblance of those better rates. You roll some dice though because you just don’t know. If we had some depth it would be different.

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      • Two years ago he was 30 and if he comes from the Miggy Tejada school of accounting – may be it was 4 years ago.

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    • We are not going to need a 3B for long [Bregman and/or Tanielu waiting in the wings]; but we WILL need a real DH for a long time. If the Mets or Dodgers don’t take him, he might be a good fit for us. He could play 3B this year, and hopefully move to DH for us next year.

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    • Heck, I’d take the guy for third, as long as he plays good defense and is a real hitter even if he might actually be older than 33 in real years. It’s not my money. And when Bregman is deemed ready to play, then we send the big guy off to someone else, or as Mr. Bill says, let him DH. Marwin and Valbuena might be our best combination of offense we’ll find in house for first. I’m still dubious about Reed. What would his .850 OPS and .350 OBP translate into with the bgf club? We’ve had guys with much better AAA numbers fail here.

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    • I don’t think its ever safe to throw plans out the window because you think Bregman is going to be good. We never tried to solve 1B because for 2 years we thought when Singleton gets here he will fix it. He came, he went, and we haven’t had a 1B that’s a positive in 4 years because we made no other contingents.

      Bregman might play well. He might now. Giving him competition and giving the team options is the name of the game.

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  14. Question 1: Who is our best bet for a DH in the 2nd half? [It really can’t be our back-up catcher, can it?]

    Question 2: Who from Fresno, if anyone, gets a cup of coffee with the big club in the 2nd half of the season [before roster’s expand]?
    a. Musgrove?
    b. Rodgers?
    c. Hoyt?
    d. Reed?
    e. Duffy?
    f. PTuck?
    g. Tyler White?
    h. Fields?
    i. McCurry?
    j. Peacock?
    k. Moran?

    Question 3: Who follows Jack Mayfield and Brendan McCurry up from Corpus to Fresno this year, and in what order?
    a. Alex Bregman?
    b. Teoscar Hernandez?
    c. Derek Fisher?
    d. Keegan Yuhl?
    e. Cy Sneed?
    f. David Paulino?
    g. Evan Grills?

    Question 4: Who follows Evan Grills, Alejandro Garcia, and Nick Tanielu up from Lancaster to Corpus this year, and in what order?
    a. Bobby Boyd?
    b. Garrett Stubbs?
    c. Ramon Laureano?
    d. Jason Martin?
    e. Brock Dykxhoorn?
    f. Trent Thornton?
    g. Dean Deetz?
    h. Joshua James?

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  15. While we are taking on the Royals, the Rangers will have their hands full with the Red Sox – and vice versa. Today it will be David Price vs. Nick Martinez.

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  16. Springer has really been pretty consisttant over his first three seasons. An OPS just over .800, and pretty good OBP for a guy that strikes out too much. I want to see what happens in the second half. He’s never approached 600 at bats. Will he tire? I think he could still get hot and give us 30 homers and 90 or 100 RBI’s. It’s not a stretch, as he’s already halfway there in homers. But I was expecting a .900 plus OPS out of him this season. I still think it will happen, but maybe not until he’s playing for another club.

    Fister is our ace right now. But he might bring more than anyone at the break. I would not be shocked if he got traded. I think we’ve seen the best we’ll get out of him.

    I don’t think we’ll ever see a Cy Young type season out of Keuchel again. But he should be better in the second half. How could he not?

    Gomez has been pretty bad for a long time. But he’ll also have a better second half. How could he not? We’re not going to see the guy we hoped for though, duplicating his 2013 or 2014 stats.

    As Old Pro has already noted, Valbuena is Valbuena. He might give us a .500 OPS in July.

    I don’t think Giles will ever fully live up to the expectations we had for him. Let’s face it, we made a big trade for a guy with a short track record.

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  17. Also, I need to report Mr. Bill for trying to highjack this operation with too many difficult issues on a laid back Friday afternoon.

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  18. Luhnow said he has done due diligence in checking out Gurriel. They either like him or they don’t. If they don’t, that’s that.
    If they do like him, they have placed a value on his services and would go after him for that amount.
    I don’t see any minor league prospects being blocked by him or him by them. If the Astros want him bad enough they have the money to go get him because they just plain have money. The fact that they could get him and not have to trade anything is enough. They will have competition, but with the players they have that are going to be free agents, they will find a place for him in their lineup and would have the money to pay him for the next three years.
    I think the Astros are going to spend a ton of money in the next couple of weeks because they spent only one third of the money on this year’s draft that they did last year, so they drafted all those college guys and their high school age guys are going to come from this year’s crop of foreign free agents.
    Manfred said right up front yesterday that the rules are going to change and there are going to be more strict guidelines to keep teams like the Dodgers from spending huge amounts of money that other teams don’t have.
    I think Luhnow is going after some good foreign free agents while he can before the league caps everything and the new CBA eliminates qualifying offers and all the foreign players become part of a draft. I see all of that happening this offseason, and all of the penny pinching the Astros have done could pay off with this July 2nd signing period and the free agent crop of great players that will happen at the end of the 2017 season.
    I’ve been wrong before, but if the Astros keep winning this month and next, they will want to keep their lineup and make a run this year with what they have. But Gurriel would assure them of a decent replacement for one of their free agents who won’t be here next year.
    That’s how I see it. How do you all see it?

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    • I don’t know anything about his ( Gurriel ) defense but I’d sure like to have his BA in this lineup. Provided they don’t bring him here and immediately try to change his approach.
      If Luhnow could get rid of some salary at the break, then why not go for him. He can always DH. I’d rather they sign him than trade prospects for mediocre rentals.

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  20. Of course, was just about to say Reed’s ready too.. As for Keuchel with his virtual same K/9 rate, not worried a bit. Watch him dig down like a champ, and we mop these pieces up! Revenge is a killer in baseball

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    • Thing is Mark, we can’t afford to have our ace mostly ineffective for half a season. He’s played a big role in getting us in the hole we’re trying to dig out of.

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  22. WOOO…..HOOO!!! 9 TO 0 FIRST INNING!! Keuchel must think he just won the lottery!
    Can’t WAIT to see A.J.Reed!! Cross your fingers that our hitting coach doesn’t screw with his swing. Another grand slam for George!

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  25. Has anyone noticed Luis holding his back after taking a swing in the second inning. I’m looking at a recording so I’m a little behind. I also saw him say something to another player in the dugout and his left hand was back on his lower left back. I think he hurt himself.
    Is this true that Reed is coming up?

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  27. Well, either he was playing with a sore back and it got worse, or he pulled something on his first swing and miss in his at-bat in the top of the second.

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  30. What the heck is going on with Keuchel??? I realize we have a big lead, but JEEZE his Era is getting hammered tonight. Two homeruns already tacked on to him! He needs to come out of the game before the Royals get back into this game! Hinch…..come and get him….NOW.

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  34. I am happy that these guys are back in contention – even with flaws they have done a great job of digging back out of a huge hole.

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  36. Brady Rodgers was real good tonight. The only run charged to him came in when Kevin Chapman gave up two hits in relief in the 8th. Hoyt came in to save Chapman’s butt and then got out of a jam in the ninth for his 18th save.
    Tucker had three more hits including a homer.
    Singleton was 1-4 with 3 Ks.

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    • Virginia Rogers husband is a DANG good pitcher! I’m looking forward to 2017 to see what our rotation looks like. Keuchel, McHugh (if Luhnow doesn’t trade him) McCullers, Rogers, Devenski, and Musgrove, or Feliz. Lots to choose from right there folks!

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    • Any chance they DFA Singleton hoping someone picks up the, roughly, $5M still owed to him over the next 2.5 years? I am mentioning this as another possibility to open up the 40-man spot for Reed.

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      • No. You don’t eat that kind of money when Singleton is still a better prospect than 5 guys on the 40 man currently like Fontana.

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  37. With Toronto also losing the Astros are only 1.5 games back of the 2nd WC spot. They also gained a game on Detroit, Texas and, obviously, Kansas City.

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  39. Kudos to George, Marwin, Jose, Carlos, Colby, Go-Go, Luis, Evan, Jason, Dallas, and Scott last night. That was a team effort, and team play looks really good on you guys!

    Congratulations to Tony Kemp on a very intriguing first cup of coffee. I have no doubt you’ll be back in the major leagues soon, young man. Keep believing in yourself – you definitely have ‘the right stuff’.

    Welcome to the big time A.J. Reed. You came at a pretty good time. Do you know what you get to do tonight, Brooks? You get to play baseball!

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    • By the way, I am brushing up on my ‘Zip-uh-dee-doo-dah’ and ‘Walkin’ on Sunshine’, even as I look on-line for directions to Jeff Luhnow’s front lawn. I welcome everyone’s suggestions/requests regarding ‘happy songs’ for my crow-eating serenade. Anybody for ‘Celebrate, Good Times, Come On!’? How about ‘I Say to Myself, It’s a Wonderful World’?

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  40. Wowser you all are on a roll and not talking Onion. I hope AJ does well and doesn’t sit the pine. Man oh Man DK is simply horrible this year. I hope he figures something out soon , other wise is like our 4th or 5th starter. That CC kid , I’m thinking he can really pick it at SS . Next year we should have a Spring Training instead of a Spring Break, then we wont look like a Church league softball team in April again and dig such a huge hole to climb out of. This is FUN!

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  41. Some thoughts on last night:
    *Dallas Keuchel is a pro. Armed with a 9 run lead from the get go, he abandoned his nipping at the corners and threw strikes, letting his ground ball tendencies carry the day. Some of his strikes got hit, mostly the high ones, but I like the way he held the Royals to one run innings.
    *I love it that we scored last in this game. Colby’s jack was a message to the Royals that the Astros were not satisfied.
    *The Astros bullpen is rested.
    *Correa showed Worth what is expected from the infield in the latter stages of the game. He got rid of the ball faster than I have seen him this year. He was gunning the ball to first base.
    *That was a huge crowd last night and they were stunned.
    *I thought the Astros were very restrained in the blowout. They were not showy and they acted like they belonged. That playoff series last year was part of the process of growing up, as was this April’s gut check.
    *Feldman’s double play pitch in the seventh put the game to bed.

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    • OP and Dan I could be wrong again, but I don’t think we are judging Keuchel solely on last night vs 2016 to date.

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      • That’s fair, but I think OP, Dan and I are just indicating that we were comfortable with how Keuchel pitched last night.

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      • I have been unhappy how Keuchel has been pitching most of the season – just not upset about last night.

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    • I completely agree with this regarding Keuchel. With a 12-0 lead the last thing you want to do is try and nibble and walk guys. Throw your strikes, trust your defense and snuff out any big rallies. I have no problem with how Dallas pitched last night.

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  42. More thoughts:
    – What are the chances that the Astros score 13 runs in a game where Altuve is 1 for 5 with no runs scored and no runs batted in?
    – I have to agree with op that I can’t judge Keuchel on this outing, he was just trying to get them to hit the ball and not have curvy number scores.Last time in a tight game he kept them in it with 2 runs in 7 innings.
    – Colby is heating up and that is a good thing for the lineup
    – Do you think Reed is going to spend more time at DH than 1B? I do.
    – Better hitting by CarGo and Valbuena has helped the team flip the lineup a little more often.
    – I can’t say enough about a veteran like Feldman, who has gone to the ‘pen without a word of guff and has put up great multi-inning outings for them.
    – Springer came within a couple feet of two first inning HRs last night.
    – The Royals looked as stunned as their fans. Will today be head hunting retaliation day? Springer may need to come to the plate ready to duck.

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    • The guy the Astros are facing has an 84mph fastball. He ate the Astros up last year with all kinds of slow junk. They might be head hunting, but not with this guy.

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      • Guys like Chris Young, Jered Weaver and Colby Lewis have always been tough on the Astros (soft-tossing, junk ball throwers). Let’s hope that starts to turn around now that the team is playing winning baseball.

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  43. I love to watch Chris Young trying to pitch to Altuve! Jolly Green giant pitching to the shortest guy in MLB! I hope Fires brings his water hose tonight, because after last night’s drubbing the Royals are gonna come out swinging. Can’t wait to see Reed tonight!

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  44. i think you are now be seeing who the astros can be. no team is their best all year. finally they are playing their best. if they were only a .500 team all year last year except for one month, what was everybody else who finished behind us? this team has flaws but EVERY team has flaws. go back and read some of the rants about this team from earlier in the year and then hang your head.

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    • In defense of some of us. We never said they didn’t have talent, just that the talent was mishandled.
      Not one person on here who pointed out their flaws ever wanted anything but the best for this team.
      May the good times continue.

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      • Hi Sandy. I might argue that the talent wasnt so much mishandled as just not performing up to capabilities. And dont get me wrong i like everybody on here and would gladly buy a beer for any of you i might run into – yes even you bopert.

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    • Good move….with the exception of last year, he made Brian Esposito look like Mike Piazza. Okay, not THAT bad, but I didn’t see a future for a guy with a sub-.500 OPS in AA.

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    • Not only that, he was hitting over .300 last year, but is not hitting anything. They were worried about him getting drafted and are probably not worried about that any more.
      Now they have Gattis, and Heineman will be ready.

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  48. and one last thing while i am actually at home with time to comment and not working, i want to thank dan for his stalwart effort in keeping the posts coming. until things get back to normal, i raise a glass to danalatta!!! which i am sure chip doesnt mind as a temporary salute.

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