A quick checkup on the Astros’ 2016 draft

As requested, here is a post about the recently completed 2016 draft for the Astros. Please keep in mind that the “expert” who is writing these words knows less about these college and high school players than about the Astros’ minor leaguers. That is almost the equivalent of a negative IQ.

So here are some facts about the Astros’ top draft choices.

  • 1st round draft choice, RHP Forest Whitley is a tall (6′-7″) drink of water who was a dominant prep schooler out of Alamo Heights HS, who was drafted while he was pitching his team into the state finals. He has a big fastball and supposedly a big work ethic. Fact – Whitley was the 17th player drafted in the first round. The 17th player drafted in 2015……Brady (OMG) Aiken
  • 2nd round draft choice, OF Ronnie Dawson out of Ohio St covers both speed and power with his stats and hits left handed to boot – .331 BA / .419 OBP / 13 HR / 51 RBI / 21 SB in 65 games. Fact – He was in the Top 10 in ten out of eleven categories in the Big 10.
  • 3rd round draft choice, C Jake Rogers out of Tulane hits like a typical catcher or a typical Astros catcher. Well actually in 2016 better than most Astros catcher with a .265 BA and a .384 OBP with 7 HR and 28 RBI’s. Fact – The fact that might have gotten the Astros attention was when the Canyon (TX) HS product led the NCAA in 2015 in both runners caught (33) and % caught stealing (58%).
  • 4th round draft choice, LHP Brett Adcock out of Michigan had solid numbers throughout his career. His 100 K in 78 IP this season stand out. Fact – Did not allow a HR for the first 63 innings of 2016.
  • 5th round draft choice, 3B Abraham Toro-Hernandez from Seminole College had super impressive numbers .439 BA with 20 homers, 86 RBIs and 94 runs scored in only 55 games. Fact – With his cannon arm he is projected as a catcher by his coaches, but drafted as a 3B.
  • 6th round draft pick, CF Stephen Wren from UGA  seems like a typical slap hitting CF with only 5 HR, but 12 SB and 34 runs scored in 53 games.     Fact – In 2016 he had only 1 error in 149 chances.
  • 7th round draft pick, RHP Tyler Buffet out of the other OSU – OK St had good numbers mostly in relief as the Cowboys advanced to the CWS – 8-3 record with 3.15 ERA.  Fact – Started the 2015 Big 12 championship game against UT giving up 1 run in 4 innings.
  • 8th round draft pick, RHP Nick Hernandez from UH – local boy from Missouri City had sparkling numbers as the Coogs closer – 1.40 ERA, 3-0 record, 11 saves and 67 Ks in 51 IPs. Fact – His favorite travel food is Beaver Nuggets from Buccee’s.
  • 9th round draft pick, LHP Ryan Hartman from Tennessee Wesleyan – his 0.64 ERA and 10-1 record were great as were his allowing only 62 hits and 12 walks in 98 innings.   Fact – He was named the Perfect Game / Rawlings pitcher of the year.
  • 10th round draft pick, RHP Dustin Hunt from Northeastern put up a 6-3 record and a very good 2.72 ERA working exclusively as a starter. Fact – Based on what he was hearing from teams and others, he expected to be picked between the 6th and 8th round.

No – this post will not slog on through all the picks, but you are welcome to chime in on what you think of this pitcher and college heavy draft. It is not as exciting as picking first or second overall, but that won’t keep some of these kids from making it to the Show in a big way. Now do you think they can sign 26th rounder Avery Tuck, CF, Steele Canyon HS (San Diego, Calif.) or will he go on to college……… let the debates begin……

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302 responses to “A quick checkup on the Astros’ 2016 draft”

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  2. Time for me to visit the old witch down at Astroholics…Anonymous!! I hope no one has beat me to the padded room! I gotta go see Keuchel pitch tomorrow, this might be my last trip the MM, before I go see the old witch!

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    • Its time for a new manager and coaching staff.
      These guys come to this team with good baseball instincts but quickly get ruined. I’m not even sure they can be straightened out.
      In the meantime I hope they don’t promote anyone else.

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  3. Bottom line this was a bad loss by a mediocre (or worse) team to a bad team. You have the chance back at home to close in on .500 and you fail to hit situationally – again!

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  4. I think the approach to hitting is dictated by the front office based on the concept that a walk is always as good as a hit among other concepts. How many first pitch strikes does Correa watch right down the middle of the plate? Last night he jumped on one of those pitches and got a nice hit. I hope he didn’t get in trouble for that. I don’t think anything is going to change until the front office lets the tame play more real baseball and a little less fantasy computer baseball. And this is not an argument against all sabermetrics. I just think the balance between old time scouting/approach and “decision sciences” is out of whack. Old fashioned Baseball IQ should be given more weight than the computer games.

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    • Yeah Nance – you accidentally used tame in place of team – but based on watching first strikes maybe tame is more appropriate. 😀

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    • I totally agree. Sabermetrics definitely has a place in modern day baseball.
      The problem as I see it, Luhnow doesn’t know anything about pure baseball he doesn’t have a baseball background of any kind. and he refuses to listen to anyone who does.
      It’s one thing to use a computer to compare draft picks but there must be some experience when developing that talent.
      Look at the Cubs. They were at the bottom with us and now they’re on top. I don’t buy into the theory of them having more money to spend. They simply have smarter people running the show.

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  5. Fresno looked like the April Astros last night, as Musgrove and Jankowski both got bombed in a 10-4 loss. Tucker was 3-4, so that was a little good news.
    By the way, Dan Radison is the hitting coach for the CC Hooks, since we’ve talked a lot about that lately.

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    • If he were to be brought into the big club, he, himself, would be ruined by the philosophies that Luhnow wants him to adhere to.

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  6. There was some real good news from Corpus last night. Mot Hyde, Danry Vasquez and Kyle Smith all came off of the DL last night and Hyde hit a grand slam and Smith was the winning pitcher in a 10-3 win over rival Frisco. Vasquez was 1 for three with two BBs.
    Curiously, that was a game where Fisher, Davis and Bregman did not play.

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    • Corpus has 7 infielders and only 11 active pitchers on their roster with the moves to get Smith, Vasquez and Hyde back on the roster. Grills and Frias were both put on the temporary inactive list to facilitate that. There are some moves coming soon in Corpus Christi.

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  7. Pat Neshek, the best player for the Reds last night, makes three times as much money as the other four pitchers who pitched for Houston last night COMBINED!
    At the end of last night’s wonderful performance, here are the batting averages for the bottom five in Houston’s vaunted batting order. These five guys make $40 million of the Astros $95 million total payroll:
    Rasmus- .223
    Gomez- .210
    Gattis- .205
    Valbuena- .237 (wow, that’s getting up there!)
    Castro- .200
    Those five players have 303 of the Astros 658 Ks, which leads all of major league baseball.

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  9. Maybe Keuchel is onto something. That guy was gonna hold up at second and would not have ever scored if Gomez hadn’t dropped the ball off the wall and given him third base. That run should not have scored. Gomez made an error and Keuchel and the Astros paid the price. Of course, the official scorer ignores it and gives the guy a triple.
    Reed is helping the Astros batters look sillier than usual.

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  12. The team was off Thursday and Harris pitched Friday. It was more critical to win this game than to put Giles in another critical spot to feel good about himself. Hinch this stupidity is on you.

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    • It was decided before the game to give Harris the day off. He had pitched in 3 of the last 4 days and we all remember him melting down late last year from over use. This wasn’t about making Giles feel good. Maybe he should have gone to Giles in the 8th and Luke in the 9th, but just last night Giles got almost the exact same hitters out so I won’t question the decision too much.

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      • I am still trying to understand why, oh why, Hinch used Harris in the first Reds game in a tied game… the closer is to be used to close the game… In my opinion, Hinch has cost the team some games this year with his managing.

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      • Almost every manager in baseball brings in their closer when the game is tied, at home, in the 9th inning. There is no longer a save situation so the thought process is to have your closer keep it tied and hope to walk it off in the bottom of the 9th. If you’re going to fault Hinch then you’re faulting almost every manager in the game that does the same thing. I’m not a Hinch believer, but I’ll defend this move.

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  13. Not this crap again. It was 4-2 when I left now 4-4 in the 10th? Is this Groundhog’s Day, and if so where’s Bill Murray?

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  16. I wore my orange Springer shirt to the game, but dressed it up with gold *bling*!
    I told my husband how neat it would be to actually SEE a walk off, but I doubted that it would happen….WRONG!! Sooo cool to be in the park when that happens!
    Keuchel looked like his old self, and the boys played error free if you don’t count the glaring screw up Gomez had, which led to the guy getting to 3rd base. I put my hand or my eyes when Giles came in, and he did what he’s done so many times this year…..I sank down in my seat (((ugh))). As muh as I want to place accolades on Springer, I could have pinched his head off for acting like an 8yr old throwing his helmet and his bat and gloves when he struck out. I’m actually surprised he wasn’t fined for that little hissy, fit. Sandy, I did get my money’s worth!!
    If Fires can pitch like he did last week, I think the fellas can take the series, but you know the Reds…..hard to keep Votto, and Bruce outta the Crawford boxes!

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  17. Heard this on the 10 inning show, the Astros will be *buyers* at the break, looking for a veteran big bat, and another starting pitcher. Rosenthal will have some news on it tomorrow.

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    • I think too early to be going that way. Oh wait! It’s a wonderful opportunity for us to give away some of our top minor league talent for a non performing, costly has been. We have plenty of pitchers in the minors and I’m sure there is somebody who is tearing the cover off the ball.
      I wouldn’t even think of it unless we’re at right in the race and that is yet to be determined.

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  18. My oldest son and I are making the drive to Houston tomorrow to celebrate Father’s Day at Minute Maid Park. My youngest son is in San Antonio with my in-laws. I wish he was going, but otherwise I can’t think of a more perfect way to celebrate Father’s Day than a man and his son at a baseball game.

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  19. James Hoyt closed out Fresno’s win last night earning his 15th save going 1.1 IPs with 0 hits, 0 BBs and 3 Ks. His ERA is now a microscopic 1.85 along with a 0.85 WHIP. He now has 61 Ks in 34 IPs. He is simply dominating AAA and I’m looking forward to seeing him in Houston soon.

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  22. If Hinch wants Harris as his closer, why did he use Harris up Friday night in a non-closer situation, only to not have him available to close Saturday night.
    Did anyone notice that Danny Worth had two doubles, two line shot outs to LF, and a groundout to SS last night. When everyone else seems to be striking out, he has hit the ball. Although he is just 3 for 14 he has only 1 strikeout.
    Valbuena is the only lefty in the lineup. He’s playing third, Gattis is catching and Worth is the DH, while Marwin is at !B. With Jake in LF and Gomez in CF, this is the best defense we have.
    Brady Rodgers pitched well and won another game yesterday.
    By my calculations, the Astros are around $320,000 under slot for the top 10 draftees they have signed thus far.
    Alex Bregman is still hitting .310 with a BABIP of .291. No wonder Jim Callis says he is ready.
    I sure would like to see Mike Fiers’s no-hitter stuff today.

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  24. I don’t know if everyone realizes how well Fiers battled today. He never had a curveball for a strike and that is usually a huge pitch for him. He has been relying on that curve that starts at the eyes and ends up at the ankles and he hit one batter with it and never got it working. That’s why he had to use his changeup as a go to pitch today and threw more fastballs than usual.
    Marwin Gonzalez is having a rough afternoon.

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  27. Astros with a “tandem” pitching shutout today. Fiers with a solid 5-2/3 and Devenski with a one hit 3-1/3 save.
    After losing Friday night the Astros take care of business and are two games under .500

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  29. that is interesting devin. almost looks like a team showing prospects capable of major league play in the near future. moran at ss and fontana at 2b showing they can be versitile maybe? this may be a trade precursor, though the trade may not happen for awhile. whatever the reason thats a lineup i wish i was at the game to see.

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    • wow op didnt see your comment before i posted mine. those two make it even more interesting. besides other teams scouting these guys, maybe we also see who is ready to come up and help us soon.

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  30. Took my husband to Galveston for a superb seafood meal, and listened to the game while we were driving around! Fires did sooo well today not losing focus! The starters have looked so good the last 6 weeks, and the guys have come through with timely hitting…..starting to gel as a team!! The Reds get to go from the Cadillac of ball parks, to the oven in arlington tomorrow…….good luck guys, you’re gonna need it!
    Now…….let’s give it up for a kid named Chris Devenski!! He came in and pitched like an *ACE* in relief of Fires!! The bullpen has soo many different looks, and it keeps the opposing teams confused…..I love it! OP, Brady Rogers is a *STUD*!!

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  32. 19 games before the All Star break. Need to be about 3 – 6 above 500 to get into the hunt. The guys appear to be jellin but the LOB’s are killing us. Looking back, I don’t think the team and management had them ready to play coming out of Spring Training, either mentally or physically.

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    • I sad that about a month ago…..the starters weren’t going past 5 innings in spring training.The bullpen was a mess when Giles walked in thinking he was the new closer…..the rest of this team was playing well, but the pitching went south in a hurry. They are just now where they SHOULD have been by April 30th. It’s so late right now…..I doubt anyone can catch the team in arlington.

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  33. The Astros are 10-7 in June.
    Strictly in the month of June, they split two games with Arizona and have won three series and lost two.
    In the month of June the Astros as a team are hitting .246 vs the .238 they are averaging for the entire season.
    The Astros are fifth in mlb in striking out in June vs first for the entire season.
    The Astros team ERA is fourth in all of MLB for the month of June vs only twelfth for the entire season.
    The Astros are tied for fourth in MLB in fielding %. A month ago they were in the bottom third.
    The Astros have been a much improved team in June.

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  34. The Astros are not out of it. But I still refuse to be overly encouraged. Everytime they seem to turn the corner, we get a couple of stinker games out of this group. Overall, the team has been fortunate. Not many injuries. And there is a certain amount of depth on the pitching staff, with a guy like Hoyt standing by to get his shot.

    But we still have more holes than not in the lineup. If we are indeed buyers at the break then we’ll need a solid bat, maybe two. I’ve said it a hundred times, I still do not believe there is room on a good club for a guy with a .225 OBP and an OPS under .500. Maybe sabemetrics make a case for Jake, but I’m not buying it.

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    • Someone I would like to see the Astros pursue, assuming the Rays are sellers at the deadline, and he shouldn’t cost us too much and is a former Astro, is Steve Pearce. Our lineup is LH heavy and he can play 1B or LF. Granted, his batting average is BABIP driven this year, but he has hit LHs well in the past, except for last year, and he provides decent pop from the right side. He’s a free agent at the end of the year and Luhnow tends to go after players that are team-controlled beyond the current year, but Pearce shouldn’t cost the Astros much in prospects.

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  35. If the Astros had won three more games against the Rangers they would be 37-33 right now, 5 games back of Texas and tied for the wild card lead. As it is, their record against the Rangers is 1-9 and is the reason they are where they are in the standings.
    I guess I shouldn’t be surprised about the talk of the Astros being buyers at the deadline, because when we are buyers, that’s when Luhnow has been at his worst. Getting rid of more prospects at the deadline would fit right in with the rest of his worst moves.

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    • I’m ready to get booed, tarred and feathered and run out of town… I’m a Luhnow fan.

      Here’s a link to a Chronicle article outlining the GM’s trades. The tally I made shows Astros win 7, Others win 5, 4 pushes and 3 to soon too tell. If the pushes and too soon to tells go against the Astros then Lunhow’s a failure.

      http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/A-look-at-Jeff-Luhnow-s-trade-history-as-the-7521777.php

      For the fun of it, here is a link to an earlier, September 2013 article.

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1587343-2013-mlb-trade-deadline-grading-every-jeff-luhnow-trade-with-the-houston-astros

      I think I read somewhere that only 10% of all minor leaguers make it to the majors, so I don’t cry too much over losing prospects other than pitchers. But given that Giles is under team control till what 2021 I’ll withhold judgement on this trade until VV returns from his latest injury and the rest of the prospects make it to the MLB.

      Also, if we add the additions by waiver the two most notables being Tony Sipp and Will Harris (are there others) then Lunhow’s numbers increase.

      Anyway, it’s just my two cents and we all know that won’t buy anything. I would welcome a unemotional post on this subject.

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      • Pencil,

        I’m with you. You and I are probably the only remaining Luhnow believers on this blog, but I don’t have a problem disagreeing with the masses. If I’m wrong and this organization completely falls apart then I’ll admit Luhnow has been a failure, but so far I see more success than failure since Luhnow took over, albeit the most recent trades have not gone as hoped, so far, but I agree with you and still think Luhnow is a good GM. It would be a mistake to let him go before the season ends and even if the Astros don’t make the playoffs it shouldn’t be the reason to terminate him at the end of the season. Whether you like Luhnowv or not doesn’t really matter because Crane likes him and he isn’t going anywhere.

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      • I’ll admit it is probably tougher to judge trades in baseball than other sports. Where I am most critical of Luhnow is on a couple trades.
        1. Giles trade – closers are volatile. The assets moved for him probably aren’t significant in the long run, but the trade occurred at the apex of reliever cost. The main complaint I have is the opportunity cost of moving three starting pitchers when 2016 has a dearth of starters available.
        2. Conger. This was great on paper – an underutilized catcher who hits from both sides with pop and plays great defense for a bor pitcher and non-hitting minor league catcher? Somehow the stats lied as Conger brought negative value on defense. No long term damage there though.
        3. Gattis. Tim disagrees here and the fun numbers are in Gattis’ favor, but the problem is Luhnow acquired a third catcher without being able to move the Castro salary. This forced Gattis to be a DH whether he wanted it or not (ok…LF was an interesting experiment) while Singleton got paid more money to clog up a 40 man spot and eat tacos in Fresno. It also gave us the unforgettable platoon of Marwin/Carter at first base instead of letting Carter remain at DH.

        The biggest area I feel I have been unfair to Luhnow is free agent signings. Obviously budget constraints and willingness of players to come to Houston factor in highly…and JL may not have had many better options than what he went with, if at all.

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      • Pencil,

        So many of those trades are still subject to future performance and/or personal opinion, but I did get a chuckle out of the September 2013 article from Bleacher Report. The writer called our GM “possibly the best mind in baseball”. That’s where I stopped reading. But I’m too unemotional to want to tar and feather you.

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      • Just because someone disagrees doesn’t mean their side of it is the “emotional response” side. Not being a fanboy of Luhnow isn’t about emotion, I am sure the guy is super nice, has a super nice family, and does justice to the organization as a professional.

        His trades have not been stupendous though. He does well in trades where he isn’t trying to build a winner. He got Devenski for Myers, and there are a few others.

        He also traded for Conger, Carter, Valbuena, Gomez, Fiers, players that we might have been better not having at all in the lineup. He sold the bank for a reliever that just blew another save and has contributed more to the sub .500 record than he has done to help any turnaround. These are not emotional responses, they are just my opinion of his trades. I just think the organization would be better with replacement players than most of these players.

        That’s not to say I don’t like some things he has done well. His draft record has a few holes but overall it matches up with most other GM’s track record in the draft. He does a good job of reading what young players he wants to target, he has just been not as good at reading what major leaguers he wants to target.

        He is a better GM than I would be. No doubt. I don’t want him fired tomorrow. Like most GM’s I like some things, I don’t like some. I think his computers have brought us a few too many low BABIP hitters, but I am not sure if that was his computers or his restraint on salaries. I’m not in his fan club, but the way the minor leagues part of the organization changed – just look at the records of those organizations in the last 4 years – he deserves some credit.

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      • Steven,

        While I agree with most of what you said I find it humorous that you keep listing Fiers as a mistake when, at the time of the trade, you felt he was a solid MOR and despite a rough start to this year has pitched decent since being acquired by the Astros. The Conger trade failed, but it didn’t fail due to miscalculation. Devin shrewdly pointed out his overall defense, prior to arriving in Houston was decent along with superior pitch framing and decent pop for a backup catcher it is easy to understand why the trade was made. Conger just didn’t deliver in ANY of the areas where he delivered in the past. He went from a 20-25% caught stealing rate to a 2% caught stealing rate. His pitch framing fell completely off the charts and his defense regressed compared to prior years. While this trade didn’t work out no one is really going to miss Tropeano or Perez. I will take any of our current 5 starters over him and the plethora of pitching prospects in the top level of our farm system over Nitro. Tropeano is a serviceable BOR, but he’s not someone I fret losing. Giles has not performed yet, but the Astros still have several years of control over him and the one player we most fretted losing, VV, has suffered another arm injury. The one trade that will probably hurt the most is the Gomez trade. Hader looks like he will be a solid pitcher. Santana and Maverick are young and may produce decently at the major league level. Unless Gomez has a monster 2nd half and helps lead the Astros to the playoffs this trade will not work out well, in my opinion, for the Astros. However, I’m not ready to call it a failure yet as we have no idea how the players lost will perform and what we will get from Fiers going forward.

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      • I still like Fiers potential to be good.

        But so far, outside of a no hitter that helped keep us in the playoff hunt, he has been below average – and worse than Nitro has been for the Angels.

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      • And I’m happy to humor you, my goal when I got up this morning, was to make sure Tim found my opinions humorous.

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      • First, I appreciate your lofty goals, but I’m sure you have higher goals than that. Next, looking at the numbers it is very debatable who has performed better between Fiers and Nitro since the Astros acquired Fiers. Nitro’s WHIP has increased substantially this year while his K/BB has decreased substantially. While his ERA decreased from last year his FIP increased from 2.20 to 4.63. Fiers had a 4,.39 FIP last year and 4.59 FIP so far this year. Fiers hits/9 have gone up, but his BB/9 has decreased substantially (3.0 to 1.6). Fiers’ K/9 has decreased this year, but his K/BB has increased from 2.81 to 3.93. The difference is miniscule and a case could be made for either pitcher being better, but not enough to say definitively.

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  36. It’s a no win situation. Bats come here to go into hibernation. They leave and come back to life.
    What the Astros need is to figure out why this happens. I don’t want them to trade for anyone or bring up anyone till this gets fixed.
    Just getting to the postseason shouldn’t be the objective. Building a team to get there year after year should be the goal.

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    • My perception is that the Astros are especially susceptible to the holes in their swing being exploited. I hate to pay him a compliment (sorry Becky), but look at how Odor beat Giles the other week. Pitch one was mid-thigh, outer half, and 98mph. It blew right past his bat. Odor knew the next pitch would be high (his weakness) and likely expected it away (because Houston has the worst pitch sequences in baseball). He changed his swing to stay on top of the ball and shortened up. The result was a game winning line drive off the wall in the LF corner. Now, compare that to Rasmus. He also can’t hit it up in the zone. What do pitchers do? They keep pounding it up and away, spin curves low and inside, and come back with heat up under his hands to finish him off. He has 3 SF this year despite all the speed preceding him in the lineup.

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  37. Looking to the future, whether we are buyers or sellers, I still think we need to retool by moving Castro, Gomez, Valbuena, and Rasmus before years end. Maybe we can get something with more upside than what we see currently.

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  38. I am thinking Correa might still be hurting from his turned ankle earlier. I have noticed he is not running hard to first on ground balls and in yesterday’s game, when he was on first and Gomez hit his double, Correa should have been able to score on that hit. Instead he dropped anchor at third base.

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    • Turned ankles are problematic. My son had a bad sprain from hitting the base wrong when playing. It felt fine after a few days. The problems was it stretched out the ligament and caused him to continue to suffer from repeated turned ankles any time he stepped funny. He finally had surgery where they tightened up the ligament. It’s been 8 years and he hasn’t had a sprain since. And he runs on all kinds of uneven surfaces now.

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  39. We need to win both the next two series [against the Angels and the White Sox] convincingly before we start talking about being anything other than sellers. We still have a long way to go to get back in the race, and taking two out of three from a last place team should not convince anybody of anything.

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    • It doesn’t, but sweeping a 2-game series on the road against a good Cardinals team that came into that series playing very well gives me some optimism going forward.

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      • When it happened – i.e. the two-game sweep of St. Louis in St. Louis – I almost let myself believe again. But then I saw St. Louis get eviscerated by Texas, while we struggled and bumbled and self-destructed our way into two unimpressive extra-inning games and one really disgusting loss against a very bad team in Cincinnati.

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      • Eviscerated? They lost three 1-run games, which they led in 2 of them late against one of the hottest teams in baseball. Before this 5-game stretch I was hoping for a 4-1 record, but expected a split in St. Louis with a sweep of the Reds. No matter how they got it done the fact remains they got it done by going 4-1 in those 5 games. The Mets just got swept at home by the worst team in baseball at the start of the series so no matter how you win I quote the late Al Davis and say “Just win, baby!”.

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      • My point in bringing up the Braves sweep of the Mets is to show that even a blind squirrel can find an acorn or, in this example, 3 acorns on occasion.

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  40. I watch the number of teams ahead of us in the WC as much as the number of games back we are. We can count on a couple to falter, but hard to expect them all to slide. We are gaining ground. I have pretty much conceded the division to the Rangers.

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    • Yes, it will take a collapse by Texas to catch them. This stretch for the Astros before the ASB is where they must make up ground. The only winning teams they play is K.C. and Seattle, with K.C. being the only road series against a winning team. They really need to make up ground during this stretch or it will be very difficult to make the playoffs this year. They have 19 games remaining before the ASB and I think 12-7 or 13-6 is a reasonable expectation considering the weakness of the schedule. That puts them 3-5 games over .500 going into the 2nd half of the season and within shouting distance of a playoff spot.

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  41. It doesn’t matter if Luhnow made 20 trades and won them all. Because all of these supposed wins in trades and free agent deals and waiver signings have done the Astros nothing. They have the worst record over the last five years in baseball. His biggest win was Marwin, who has been a backup utility infielder for four years. Huge win there!
    The Astros have three players in their starting lineup who will be here next year and are playing well this year. The Astros have five players, Rasmus, Gomez, Marisnick, Castro and Gattis who are hitting under .220 and another hitting under .240, Valbuena, who will be a free agent this fall and who will walk with Casto, Rasmus and Gomez(or at least we hope they will walk).
    So the Astros have had this awful record and will probably have three good players from this lineup and a catcher for next year, Gattis, who will be a $5million catcher next year and a .235 hitter if they are lucky.
    Somebody defending Luhnow above, mentioned that you can depend on 10% of your prospects, so who are the Astros going to fill out the lineup with next year? Prospects? Free agents? Here the Astros sit with Springer and Altuve, neither of whom Luhnow had anything to do with acquiring, and Correa, who is a very big disappointment so far this year, LMJ who Luhnow has bungled completely with his development, by not letting him pitch any innings in the minors, Musgrove, who is in the same boat, Rodgers, who is his best AAA pitcher, but whom Luhnow has somehow managed to ignore and not get onto the 40-man, Devenski who doesn’t have a spot because of Feldman, Feliz, who doesn’t have a spot because of Fister.
    He has Sipp only as the only bullpen lefty and whom he paid $18million to and who has the only negative WAR on the pitching staff. He has Neshek, who he couldn’t trust last year in the playoffs and has zero WAR this year and is making $6million while 29 year old Hoyt wastes away closing for a losing AAA team.
    So is he going to trade prospects again for more fill in players?
    Is he going to go with prospects next year, thus flying in the face of Luhnow defenders who have just said you can only rely on 10% of them.
    The end of this season is the perfect time to get rid of Luhnow, who has failed to deliver what he promised: A team of great cheap young players to carry us through the next decade.

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    • I chuckle at the ‘10% of prospects make it’ analysis I see floating around again. It totally ignores the more important reality that 99% of the players now or who have ever been in the major leagues were once minor league prospects. Meanwhile, for the Astros the last three years, thesupposedly ‘MLB experienced’ trade acquisitions Mr. Luhnow has acquired have not even performed up to league average, much less made us a better team. I’ll take minor league prospects and/or a free agent or two to fill the holes OP1 is talking about. As to Luhnow trading any more prospects from our system for MLB experienced players, I say ‘no mas, por favor’.

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      • We tried that with Tyler White, who most on here were clamoring to get called up last year, and, so far, that has not worked out well. He also tried that with Jon Singleton, who was the top 1B prospect in all of baseball 2 years ago and that has not worked out well.

        I have to laugh at the comment made by someone else that Luhnow bungled LMJ’s development by not letting him pitch longer in the minors, but discredits him for not putting Rodgers on the 40-man roster, when it makes no sense to do so unless he is either getting called up or will become Rule V draft eligible. Why put him on the 40-man roster when you don’t have to do so? Don’t we want to develop him further? Why release someone from the 40-man roster unless it is necessary to do so? Rodgers is not eligible for the Rule V draft yet and he hasn’t been promoted to Houston so he is fine staying off the 40-man roster.

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      • I don’t compare LMJ to Rodgers.
        Rodgers is 25 and was eligible for the Rule 5 draft last year and wasn’t protected(you missed that).
        If the Astros wanted a start from their best AAA pitcher, they would have to jettison somebody from the 40-man to get Rodgers up to the majors.
        Luhnow bungled McCullers by not having him pitch decent innings in the minors and then having to back him off in the majors because he chose to bring him up at age 21 with 32 innings pitched in the high minors. That’s what I meant by bungling.
        I guess it’s fair to compare White and Singleton, since Luhnow’s major league hitting coach can’t seem to help either of them or anyone else on the team hit a baseball.
        Hudgens, another great Luhnow find!

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      • For every Hudgens there is a Strom. McCullers was held back this year due to tightness in his shoulder. The Dodgers brought up Urias at 19 so I don’t think the age should be a factor here. McCullers was dominating in AA before being called up. The fact Luhnow left Rodgers unprotected in the Rule V and he wasn’t claimed actually goes to show Luhnow’s intelligence in making the proper call since Rodgers wasn’t taken. If he wasn’t subject to the Rule V draft this year then I don’t see any reason to put him on the 40-man roster until they decide to call him up.

        At least we agree that McHugh and Harris are better coups than MarGo. Sipp, despite his miniscule -0.1 WAR has a cumulative WAR near 2.0 since acquired by the Astros. Just another great find by Luhnow and more proof of his success.

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    • “Is he going to trade prospects for more fill in players”? Yep!! You can bet money on that. I can’t get too invested in any prospect right now, because it just pi$$es me off when we see another guy go gang busters, while the guys Luhnow gets back turn out to be a bust. My opinion only.

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    • First, MarGo is not his biggest win. Harris and McHugh, who you labeled a solid #2 this past offseason despite my claim he was a #3, are much bigger success acquisitions than MarGo.

      I’m not going to get into the overall record again as that has been debated ad nauseum other than to say everyone knew the team was going to be bad for the first 2-3 years under his leadership and he was given a $30M budget to work with when he started so not even the great Theo Epstein could have done much better with that budget and that weak of a farm system.

      The end of the season may be the time to get rid of him, but it won’t happen. We can debate the merits of his success, but, depending on your opinion of him, we are either stuck with or lucky to have Luhnow for several more years. He’s not going anywhere and we’ll see how good this team is going forward.

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      • The discussion was about trades, a response to my post by pencil101. Marwin was a trade. The other two were not.
        The overall record has also been ignored ad nauseum by some.
        We may be stuck with Luhnow after this year, but at least he has a track record now and the results have not been been good.
        McHugh is a solid #2 who is pitching like a solid #4, for a team with a lot of overpaid, underperforming players, who were acquired by trading the guys Luhnow said he was going to build this team with, his draftees.
        Some of Luhnow’s trades have been good, some of them bad, but his team’s record has been terrible, most of his fill in players have sucked for five years and his core consists of Springer and Altuve and Correa and the rest of the team is so mediocre, both from a Sabremetric view and a bird’s eye view.

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      • Actually his track record has been good since part of his job is to develop the farm system and the overall record in the farm system since he was hired has been exceptional. The record for the Astros falls on McLane and his utter and complete disregard for the farm system during his final years as the owner. The record is not being ignored, but the fault on the record is being blamed on the wrong person.

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      • Five years later, the lousy team we’ve watched this season falls on McLane.
        Oh yeah, then it’s becomes Crane’s fault in, say, three more years. What a great job the Astro’s GM position is. All you have to do is win down on the farm. Everything else is someone else’s fault.

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      • “Because all of these supposed wins in trades and free agent deals and waiver signings have done the Astros nothing”

        I used this statement from you to make the assumption that you felt MarGo was his biggest transaction win. The message got lost in translation by myself. Valbuena, based upon WAR, has also been a good trade acquisition. He has put up a higher WAR than MarGo since 2015.

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      • I have said Crane is more at fault than Luhnow for the first 3 years of Luhnow’s tenure since he gave him a very low budget to work with. Also, the farm system was inherited by Luhnow because of McLane’s failure to sign any worthwhile draftees and then trade away any decent prospect for guys like Jason Jennings and Miguel Tejada. Drafting Castro, Mier and DDJ were clearly done for signability reasons. You fail to recognize how Luhnow took the worst farm system EVER and turned it into a top 5 system in less than 3 years…3 YEARS! That is remarkable and a testament to his success. The record is irrelevant because this was what Crane wanted in order to clean up the farm system and repay his debtors.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Tim, Valbuena trade begs the q
        Question what else could they have had for Fowler..or what if they had kept him last year instead.

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      • Devin,

        That is a fair question, but why wasn’t Fowler playing LF when he was here. Did he demand to play CF and was this why they traded him? He’s back on the DL again this year. Last year was his rare, injury-free season.

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    • Tim, I agree the best alignment would put Fowler in LF. I haven’t read any reports saying he wouldn’t move positions. I find it hard to believe the computer crew in Houston would not have suggested it…but they’ve repeatedly put Springer in RF when he could be one of the top CF in the league…

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      • That may be the case with Springer, but he also our best RFer and we are a better team defensively with him in RF and either Gomez or Marisnick in CF.

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  43. My new favorite minor leaguer is 35th (I’m a sucker for those late picks) round pick from Concordia University, Keegan Yuhl. Anyone notice that he’s now 7-1, with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP at Corpus?. He’s another ground ball pitcher who’s got a body style something like my pal Tyler White. He told Jane Hansen last year that he had lost about 70 pounds over a two to three year period. Good thing. Apparently he’s turned into a real hard worker.

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  44. Well the cats out on his trading record. Some like it, some don’t.

    If you like it, you are probably happy that he has moved some C type minor league pieces for C type major league pieces. If you don’t, you probably feel like he has moved some B type minor league pieces for some C type major league pieces. Either way, in my estimation, he was either directed to, or worked hard at, avoiding real major league talent. What he gave Philly for a reliever that has actually been a detriment to the team would have netted him Hamels last year. Maybe Hamels was blocking it, we don’t know what we don’t know, but Luhnow tends to stay on the outside of blockbusters that Gerry was famous for. Need Randy Johnson, Gerry was your man. Need Beltran, Gerry was your man. The guy wasn’t scared of the moment or scared of the really big move, moves this team could have used. He had talks with the Reds about Chapman. If he got Chapman, the Astros probably don’t blow that lead in game 4 and advanced.

    Has anyone he moved gone on to superstardom? Not yet. Matter of fact the only ones with that potential in my estimation, Santana, VV and Appel, all have holes that may prevent it. Strikeouts, health issues, and inconsistent minor league careers plague them. But he sent them, and a few others with potential to be contributors, out for players that have performed negatively for the Astros. It’s not just that they are there – its that what they have done have lost games not won them. This team rode the coat tails of Altuve, Keuchel, McHugh, Correa and some timely bullpen pitching to 86 wins. You see Keuchel and McHugh stumble, the team falls apart.

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    • I am not sure you can say they have performed negatively since every player he has acquired has put up a positive, cumulative WAR for the Astros. You can definitely say they haven’t performed as expected, but none have performed negatively.

      It was reported that the Astros had a trade for Hamels and he blocked it. The Phillies much preferred our offer to what they got from the Rangers.

      While Hunsicker made some great trades he was also the GM when they failed to protect Johan Santana from the Rule V draft and decided to protect Richard Hidalgo instead of Bobby Abreu in the expansion draft. I like Hunsicker and I think he is the best G.M. in Astros history, but no one is infallible to mistakes.

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      • No, actually Keegan Yuhl is a starter by accidental luck. He was a starter in college and Luhnow didn’t think he could cut it as a starter so he made Yuhl a reliever in Greeneville and QC. Yuhl got promoted to Lancaster and was a reliever until a player went on the DL and the manager needed an eighth guy for his tandem and named Yuhl to be that guy. Yuhl pitched so well that he stayed a starter. So, dumb luck overcomes Luhnow’s misjudgement of another pitcher.

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      • Also, and no offense, but you have no idea what the plan was for Yuhl. Maybe they wanted to start him in the bullpen to limit his innings and then ease him into being a starter. Who knows, and neither you or I do, but we do know he was drafted in the 35th round and is turning into another late round find by the current regime. We don’t know if Yuhl will ever be a good major leaguer just like we don’t know why Hamels blocked a trade to Houston. We do know he put Houston on his no-trade list prior to Crane buying the Astros and that his wife is from the DFW Metroplex so we can surmise different scenarios on why he didn’t want to come to Houston.

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    • Never been a fan of WAR because the average WAR across the league is above average – it’s not 0. It’s not impressive to put a 1.0 over the course of the season.

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      • True, but if you put up a positive WAR then you have performed above replacement level. I’m not a big WAR person either, but it gets used frequently on this blog to discredit a players performance, most notably Gattis as our DH last season. My point was that the players may not have performed as expected, but they didn’t perform negatively.

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