A quick checkup on the Astros’ 2016 draft

As requested, here is a post about the recently completed 2016 draft for the Astros. Please keep in mind that the “expert” who is writing these words knows less about these college and high school players than about the Astros’ minor leaguers. That is almost the equivalent of a negative IQ.

So here are some facts about the Astros’ top draft choices.

  • 1st round draft choice, RHP Forest Whitley is a tall (6′-7″) drink of water who was a dominant prep schooler out of Alamo Heights HS, who was drafted while he was pitching his team into the state finals. He has a big fastball and supposedly a big work ethic. Fact – Whitley was the 17th player drafted in the first round. The 17th player drafted in 2015……Brady (OMG) Aiken
  • 2nd round draft choice, OF Ronnie Dawson out of Ohio St covers both speed and power with his stats and hits left handed to boot – .331 BA / .419 OBP / 13 HR / 51 RBI / 21 SB in 65 games. Fact – He was in the Top 10 in ten out of eleven categories in the Big 10.
  • 3rd round draft choice, C Jake Rogers out of Tulane hits like a typical catcher or a typical Astros catcher. Well actually in 2016 better than most Astros catcher with a .265 BA and a .384 OBP with 7 HR and 28 RBI’s. Fact – The fact that might have gotten the Astros attention was when the Canyon (TX) HS product led the NCAA in 2015 in both runners caught (33) and % caught stealing (58%).
  • 4th round draft choice, LHP Brett Adcock out of Michigan had solid numbers throughout his career. His 100 K in 78 IP this season stand out. Fact – Did not allow a HR for the first 63 innings of 2016.
  • 5th round draft choice, 3B Abraham Toro-Hernandez from Seminole College had super impressive numbers .439 BA with 20 homers, 86 RBIs and 94 runs scored in only 55 games. Fact – With his cannon arm he is projected as a catcher by his coaches, but drafted as a 3B.
  • 6th round draft pick, CF Stephen Wren from UGA  seems like a typical slap hitting CF with only 5 HR, but 12 SB and 34 runs scored in 53 games.     Fact – In 2016 he had only 1 error in 149 chances.
  • 7th round draft pick, RHP Tyler Buffet out of the other OSU – OK St had good numbers mostly in relief as the Cowboys advanced to the CWS – 8-3 record with 3.15 ERA.  Fact – Started the 2015 Big 12 championship game against UT giving up 1 run in 4 innings.
  • 8th round draft pick, RHP Nick Hernandez from UH – local boy from Missouri City had sparkling numbers as the Coogs closer – 1.40 ERA, 3-0 record, 11 saves and 67 Ks in 51 IPs. Fact – His favorite travel food is Beaver Nuggets from Buccee’s.
  • 9th round draft pick, LHP Ryan Hartman from Tennessee Wesleyan – his 0.64 ERA and 10-1 record were great as were his allowing only 62 hits and 12 walks in 98 innings.   Fact – He was named the Perfect Game / Rawlings pitcher of the year.
  • 10th round draft pick, RHP Dustin Hunt from Northeastern put up a 6-3 record and a very good 2.72 ERA working exclusively as a starter. Fact – Based on what he was hearing from teams and others, he expected to be picked between the 6th and 8th round.

No – this post will not slog on through all the picks, but you are welcome to chime in on what you think of this pitcher and college heavy draft. It is not as exciting as picking first or second overall, but that won’t keep some of these kids from making it to the Show in a big way. Now do you think they can sign 26th rounder Avery Tuck, CF, Steele Canyon HS (San Diego, Calif.) or will he go on to college……… let the debates begin……

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302 responses to “A quick checkup on the Astros’ 2016 draft”

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  1. Dan, I do not see anyone who jumps out in front as a “can’t miss” in this draft… of course, all drafts are, quite literally, a game of chance. The methods of the Houston Astros Baseball organization leaves me with a feeling of doubt regarding its players. The players are forced to reconsider their habits that got them to the point of being a prospect, (Mengden) even a veteran (Fister). Especially annoying is the two starting pitcher plan in each game in the minors. Of course, we all know about the hitting coach woes on the big club.

    I was amused as I watched the game last night and a screen came up regarding Nolan Ryan collecting 20+ complete games in a three season run and throwing upwards of 200+ pitches in games. This is unheard of and not even dreamed of in today’s game.

    Back to the draft… I am pleased to see the club go after college players this year. The minors, especially AAA Fresno, have been decimated by the trades of last year. Since the kids on the big club are not performing up to the lofty standards set by the successes of the minors the past season, in addition to aforementioned trades, there is a gap of no success. By drafting college players, that gap could be closed much more rapidly than if they had drafted a boatload of prep players.

    All we can do is cross our collective fingers and ask for the best.

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    • According to SB Nation the Astros have signed 7 of their top 10 picks already – #2-5 and 8-10. They have not even started negotiations with #1 Whitley and #7 Buffet is still active in the College World Series.
      Overall the Astros went hard on the college side – 35 of 40 picks were Community, JC or 4 year college players.

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  2. A little off topic here, but continuing a thread from yesterday….Robert Ford apparently in his broadcast indicated that the glasses that Gomez is wearing are not prescription. I mean is this just superstition on the guy’s part? Who would choose to wear glasses if they did not need them? And why is there no article on this by the folks covering the club? (Yes, I know – journalism is not dead, but possibly on life support).

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    • Maybe the glasses or anti-glare or something? I remember reading an article in the distant past about some pair of special glasses that Adam Everett was using that supposedly made the ball stand out more against the background or something.

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    • I missed that by Ford, that’s ridiculous. Why on earth would one wear glasses for no reason, especially, someone who can’t even keep his hat on while batting.
      I’ve worn glasses since I was in second grade and they still annoy me.
      Besides, as far as I know, only reading glasses can be bought without a prescription. Or safety glasses, maybe?

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  3. Dan, that was a great breakdown of the top ten of our selections. Besides the obvious hopes with the high ceiling of #1 Whitely, I really like the picks of #3 Ben Rogers and #5 Abraham Toro-Hernandez. I saw Rogers play when LSU played Tulane. Rogers to me was the best player on the field as he put LSU’s running game to a halt. LSU has a lot of passed balls whereas Rogers just doesn’t let anything get by him. One of these so-called draft experts called him not only the best defensive catcher in the draft, but the best defensive player period in the draft. His hitting seemed to improve this year, so I’m hoping that this will not keep him from the majors.

    After hearing the coach at Seminole State speak about Toro-Hernandez, I have hope that he just might be one of the steals of the draft. He seems to be a complete ball player that projects to catcher who also can hit (wow).

    Hopefully with one of these two, we have our catcher of the future.

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  4. I think Whitley will sign. It’s too big a gamble to turn down $2.5 million.
    I have looked up almost all of the draft picks and I don’t see anyone but Toro Hernandez who jumps off the page as a switch hitter who had one heck of a year. The other guy from Seminole State, their starting 2B could develop also.
    What I did see is pitchers with high K rates and low BB rates and hitters with high OBP. It’s the same MO as Luhnow always uses. with the exception of their #2 pick, the guy from Ohio State, who is a power/speed guy.
    Interesting fact about Abraham Toro Hernandez is that he was born in Venezuela, raised in Canada and went to college in Oklahoma. Speaks, English, Spanish and French.
    I think the Astros are going to have a real good team at Tri City, made up of these college draft picks.
    The Astros will spend twice as much money next month on some of the best international free agents to try and inject good very young Latin American players into the lower end of their minor leagues before that market starts to dry up in the coming years.
    Their #11 pick Chad Donato is going to sign and will probably need TJ surgery soon, from what I’ve heard.
    Avery Tuck is a long shot to sign. I don’t know where they would come up with enough slot money to entice him with.
    I like this draft. I think they did a good job identifying players they think have the tools to work their way up to the top of the minors. I suspect they were able to get their fancy equipment that registers ball-off-bat speed for a number of these guys.
    I think they did a good job getting a closer for each of their lower minor league teams.

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  6. After the way the best of our draft picks of the last 10 years, Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers, Jr., have struggled – and continue to struggle – in the majors this year, it is hard for me to get excited about any of our draftees. They all look like extreme long shots to me to start with, and our system is obviously not geared to produce success.

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    • I am going to cut a 21 year old and a 22 year old major league player a little slack. They are now the same age as the guys we just drafted.

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    • OP1, my lack of enthusiasm is not aimed at Correa or McCullers. It is aimed instead at the Astros’ organization, which is looking every bit as inept at preparing prospects for the substantial challenges of the MLB level as it is at taking veterans and not ruining their careers.

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    • They didn’t struggle last year. It’s not uncommon for young players to struggle in their 2nd season in the league as teams adjust to them. They’ll adjust and be fine going forward.

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  7. I think there are some good picks, but heck I think we have some good young talent right now. However I’m a Broken record. None of it matters if we don’t change the leadership and development stratagies of the team. I thought it would be impossible,even for my beloved Astros, to taint CC and LMJ, but I’m seing it right before my eyes.

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  8. Thoughts on CarGo and his glasses. From the still picture I saw these are not anti-glare – they look clear as a bell.
    Maybe we need to understand we are dealing with a talented odd-ball eccentric. It kind of reminds me of Astro/Card pitcher Joaquin Andujar, who if I remember correctly used to be a switch-hitter, but he did not do it based on right/lefty – just whatever he felt like on that day.

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    • What I Go-Go was filmed doing in the dugout the other day after hitting a home run – flailing away at the bench, with his teammates looking on in partial amusement and partial shock – leads me to agree that we are indeed dealing with quite an eccentric young man.

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      • Yes that was totally bizarre. If folks did not see it – Gomez came back to the bench and started pounding his helmet into the cement floor of the dugout. He looked like someone who had struck out with the bases loaded. The other Astros had a “what the heck” look on their faces.

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  9. I’ve got to admit, I have not really followed the draft or the players in it. I think it’s because my enthusiasm level is at a bit of a low right now. I see a #3 pick who hit .265 at Tulane. How does that translate once he’s at the plate against the best guys he’s ever seen each time up? We’ve already got a marvelous defensive talent in Jake Marisnick, a guy who continues to frustrate because he simply can’t hit at the major league level.

    Separately, our GM deserves some credit for picking up our staff ace at the bargain basement price of 7 million for a season. Of course it’s a combination of things. Our other four guys are all underperforming. Did I say my enthusiasm level is at a bit of a low right now?

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    • I’m with you…I personally am against drafting any position player who can’t hit well in college, regardless of defense. There are enough great defensive players who can’t hit in the majors that COULD hit in college.

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      • As he goes up each level, that OBP would plummet. As a comparision, those stats are worse than any year that Nolan Fontana had in college.

        He would have to be Johnny Bench- level in order not to be another Brian Esposito or Cody Clark

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      • I see potential. Even if he struggles to hit .200 reliably, his defensive ability will be a boon to our young pitcher’s development. It’s great that they can learn to bury pitches properly without getting burned by an offense first catcher disinterested in blocking them.

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      • Devin, we’ve become acclimated to having low expectations. When are are willing to embrace a catcher that might struggle to hit .200 because he’s a defensive specialist, we’re giving away a bat in the line up. We should have every expectation that our management will find us a catcher that will both hit, manage a pitching staff and play defense too. So far, this administration has been hopeless in that regard.

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  10. I took a few minutes to read one of the old posts that is linked to right above the comments.

    Dan compares the Astros and Cards using the Luhnow influence

    A couple quotes really hit me hard….

    “In reality the youth movement for the Astros for the next 3 to 4 years may well be equal parts their own draft picks (Springer, Folty, Fontana, Correa, Appel) and youth picked up in trades (Cosart, Villar, Singleton, Asher Wojalphabet, Santana).”

    Jeez – only Springer and Correa survived (I know Singleton is still here, but….)

    “Up to now – Jeff Luhnow has been completing fairly obvious trades of veterans for potential. The tale will be told on his ability as they move farther down the road and try to pick up more immediate help.”

    That is still his legacy problem moving forward.

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  11. Tonight, against a tough RH pitcher, we get to trade our RH hitting catcher, Gattis [.211/.277/.687] for our LH hitting catcher, Casto [.209/.353/.741]. We also get to trade MarGo [.254/.295/.682] for Valbuena [.236/.332/.744]. We don’t get much in the way of a BA lift, but the OBP becomes significantly better. Go Astros!

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  12. Rogers I going to Triple City Valley Cats!! If he’s as good as he was advertised, he should move up quick! Finally his club drafts a pretty good catcher…..not dissing the guys on the farm, but the Astros have NEEDED to draft a good catcher. Oh that’s right Luhnow traded one of our catching gems….Nottingham where are you??
    I like the lineup tonight!!

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  14. Tonight it looks like Captain Hook against Captain McHook. Both those guys are dealing.
    But of course we’ve lost two on the paths… Rasmus getting doubled off first and Altuve getting Molina’d at 2nd. (I think that is a verb)

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  15. Speaking of catchers……there are a couple of pitches that WILL throw you out……..and Molina is one of them. I guess Hinch forgot to tell this team, that Molina will throw you out in a New York minute.

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  16. Luhnow said Gomez does wear contacts, and maybe his contacts were bothering him, so he’s wearing glasses. So……let’s hope he continues to wear them!

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  19. Besides the 30/100 guy many have been expecting Springer to finally become, he’s a really beautiful player to watch. There is so much talent there.

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    • That’s why I want this club to PAY THE MAN when the time comes. I’m so sick and tired of this club letting guys walk rather than give them the money to stay.
      Case in point…..Hunter Pence.

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      • Because they didn’t want to pay him…That’s why they traded him. Remember, they were unloading salary.

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      • They were rebuilding and had a weak farm system. Trading Pence was the right move for a team going nowhere and no bright future ahead, at that time.

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  22. This was a nice 2 game sweep for the Astros and the team was playing a lot more like 2015 – great pitching and clutch late inning hitting. Good job team.

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  26. So Gomez really WAS closing his eyes and swinging as hard as he could! Liking was I am seeing when he can see….but shouldn’t professional hitting coach and team doctors have figured out sooner that he had a vision issue? It seems to me like if somebody just started wearing contacts simultaneously with playing well below historical norm, it shouldn’t take a computer to identify. At least that’s what they said on TV broadcast – that he started wearing contacts at the beginning of the season.

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  27. The Hooks beat Frisco 7-3 tonight and their magic/elimination number is 1 to clinch the first half title. Teoscar Hernandez was 3-5 with 2 HRs and his average is up to .312. With him and Fischer getting hot our OF depth doesn’t look as bad as it did about a month ago.

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    • Well we either have to catch the Rangers (9.5 GB) or the second wild card (4.5 GB), which is not at this point Seattle. I guess we need to be chasing Cleveland/KC, Toronto and Seattle. But in truth – the team needs to keep playing well and bust through the .500 mark. They probably need to go something like 56-39 the rest of the way to have a shot at the WC. That may be too much to ask – but the 2nd WC does help them a lot in the big picture.

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  29. I saw where Ichiro (who is 21 hits shy of 3000 since joining the mlb as a 27 year old rookie) has now passed Pete Rose with 4257 hits between Japan and mlb.
    But what I want to know is how much money he has made gambling on the Mariners and Marlins games.

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    • Thats the difference… Ichiro is class personafied!
      and Pete will say he never bet on a game he played, or managed.

      I had my doubts early. At this point, minus the bonehead plays, the emergence of Fister and McHugh gives me hope we will win the 2nd WC. Also, as tough as we played the Rangers, they have to be rooting against us. Expecting a win streak soon, as the team has faced their nemeses (TX, StL), and acquitted themselves well enough.

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      • The StLouis fans have much more class than the Arlington ones.
        Even after getting swept they still wished the Astros well.
        Missing the NL today.

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      • Sandy is right…..the fans in St. Louis are the BEST in MLB. They know they have a good team, and even when Albert was playing poorly, they never had anything but respect for the man. They really ARE the best organization in baseball.
        The team in arlington have no class…..never have, probably never will.

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  30. One of the things that hits me about the Cardinal series – the team would probably have lost both these games in April (or against Texas).
    Tuesday night clinging to a 3-2 lead, they would not have extended the lead and Giles would have given up a dinger to lose the game.
    Wednesday night they would not have come back late to score. Or if they had they would have not extended the lead and would not have held on.
    It is still baby steps, but the team is playing better overall they just need to get over the .500 hump and see what happens.

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  31. Good 2 games but as usual the organizations vision of developing people baffles me. I mean what the heck is the plan of development for White, Kemp and Worth, even though he has been around a while? Sit on bench play once in a while, suck because you have no timing ,sit back down you aren’t performing, and dang it back to AAA with your useless hide ????

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  32. I read an article on Gomez and his glasses. They are prescription glasses and he wears contacts too. He says he can’t wear the glasses at MM cause the atmosphere fogs them up. Really? Playing outdoors in StL in hot humidity is ok but not ok in a controlled environment?

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    • in Houston this paast week I got out of the cool car and into the heat and my glasses fogged up. Then I walkked from the heat into the store and they fogged up again.. When you are hot and sweaty and playing baseball in an air conditioned stadium, I could see where his glasses might fog up.

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      • I wear glasses in the park, and I’ve never had a problem with that. He only started wearing contacts this year, who knows if he’s having trouble with them.

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      • OP……contacts or glasses, I hope he continues to wear them!!!! We need his bat to heat up, and drive in runs!!!

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      • Surely he’s not the first player to wear glasses while playing at MM. I wear glasses all the time and I’ve been there with no problems.
        Now I can see how wearing glasses and sweating may cause a problem.

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      • On the field under the lights is a bit different than in the stands. In college we used the lights to burn off fog and light accumulation from rain.

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  35. Fresno Grizzlies 4 Sacramento River Cats 0
    Cesar Valdez
    1 walk
    1 hit
    10 strike outs
    COMPLETE GAME SHUT OUT!!
    I like what I’m seeing with the pitchers in this organization!!
    By the way the Chronicle has an awesome article about Feliz!!

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  36. Corpus Christie clinched the first half crown last night in the second half of a doubleheader against Frisco. The Hooks won 2-0, riding, fittingly, a two-run HR by Alex Bregman to victory.

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  37. Managing the Tri-City Valley Cats has to be an interesting job. Their competitive season starts today and they have a total of six players listed on their roster, including one pitcher.

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  38. For the younger folks or the ones who never heard of him – Eddie Feigner was the King and his Court were the catcher, infielder and outfielder that were his whole team. He is considered the greatest softball pitcher ever.
    He did not have the other guys on the team (other than the catcher) for defensive reasons, but because if they ever loaded the bases they needed a fourth batter.
    He would play all comers touring the country and threw a ton of no hitters. I think he would do tricks like strike guys out pitching from 2nd base or have his fielders come into the infield and sit down.
    I saw him on TV play an exhibition against major leaguers and strike out 5 or 6 future hall of gamers.

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    • It is interesting to see there are more players older than Bostick than younger than him at Tr-City. Sometimes we forget how very young some of these kids are.

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    • Where has he been? Our brand new catcher from Tulane, the new Jake from Stare Farm….Rogers is on that roster as well!!

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    • Good…he needs to play every day, and he’s not ready here.

      Surprised Worth wasn’t sent back down, though.

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  41. Sing their praises, watch their hot streak, watch them slump, banish them to irregular playing time, send them down when they can’t get into a rhythm. Wash, rinse, repeat. Maybe a few times. Release and then watch to see what they do somewhere else.

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  43. I’m excited to see my Astros play one of our old rivals. And we get to use the DH, too. Sorta the best of both worlds. Come on Stros!

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  44. It looks like Tri-City will be fine. They lead 8-0 in the seventh. Akeem Bostick gave up just two hits in 6 shutout innings.
    The first batter for the Valley Cats was new 2016 draftee Stephen Wrenn and he homered in his first professional AB.
    Sebastian Kessay just relieved Bostick and immediately lost the shutout. Now 8-1 in the seventh.
    Jake Rogers is catching for TC and has two hits.

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  45. Momentum. How many times have you seen it happen? A guy makes a great defensive play to save his team two runs, and immediately his team comes in and scores.

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