Fast forward to Friday for Astros snapshot

It is difficult to remember this, but just like Carlos Gomez is not that far removed from great performances in 2014, the Astros are not that far removed from playing well against the Texas Rangers.

In 2014, the Astros were a solid 11-8 against the nemesis from the north. Even in 2015, they began the season with a decent 4-5 against the Rangers. But then the wheels came off and the Astros have been 2-14 against them ever since, including 0-6 to date in 2016.

It is simple, in the next four days the Astros could undo a ton of the good work they have put in during their recent 11 wins in 13 games streak. With four games against a team that not only has their number, but has a lot of team’s numbers this season, the Astros could run the gamut from hurting themselves badly to continuing their fine recent performance.

On Friday, they could wake up anywhere from three games behind the Texas Rangers to 11 games behind in the division. They have struggled mightily to get within two games of .500 and within four games of the second wild card. They have to get this King Kong sized monkey off their back in relation to their Arlington rival or kiss 2016 goodbye.

How do you think they will do in these four games?
How do you think they need to perform in these four games in order to not kill their momentum and ability to contend?

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290 responses to “Fast forward to Friday for Astros snapshot”

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  5. Well tonight the Rangers ground into 2 double plays, were 0 for 9 with RISP and had their bullpen give up the lead and the game.
    I flinched when the Rangers got the hit against the shift in the 9th, but in the end the good guys won with great pitching and just enough hitting.

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  10. I know, I’m ever the cynic, a win a is a win and most certainly was needed. But Gomez still threw to a wrong base and allowed a runner to get into scoring position. Altuve still got hung up between second and third after his two run hit. He should have been standing on second with one out. I did not see the whole game, but we’re still not playing real high caliber baseball. Too many darn mistakes that good teams don’t make on such a regular basis.

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    • Yeah I was a little hacked about Altuve running into an easy out there. On the other hand it was one of the few clutch late inning hits we ever get against the Rangers so I’m not as mad as I would be if he popped up or struck out

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      • But then Pettis IS responsible for sending Castro to a certain out trying to score from second.
        Coach has to know his players abilities.

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  11. The Hooks won again last night and the Frisco Roughriders (Rangers AA affiliate) lost. The Hooks now have a 2.5 game lead and their elimination number (previously referred to as magic number) is 11 to win the 1st half and clinch a playoff spot.

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  12. Altuve: “This is another win for us. We try to not pay attention to the noise about the way we play against the Rangers. … No matter who you’re playing you’ve got to get the win.” Between actual quality of play and words spoken, Altuve seems as close to a team leader as we have. Just my opinion.

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  13. Kent Emanuel got hit fairly hard for the first time this season for CC, but Davis, Fisher and McDonald hit HRs late in the game and David Paulino was lights out as Emanuel’s tandem partner. Bregman had two more hits and both of them were during key rallies late in the game.
    Martes throws for Corpus Christi today.

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  14. Not to overstate the obvious, but today is an important game. If the Astros can find a way to win they will have split the series in Arlington and keep the momentum going from winning 11 of 13 before playing the Rangers. They were just as hot as the Astros coming into this series and a split, on the road, would be what most of us would have wanted. Needless to say we need the good Collin to show up this afternoon.

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  15. The lineups are out. The only LH is VB playing 3B. MarGo at 1B, White at DH and Gattis at C. Marisnick, Springer and Gomez are in the OF.

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  16. Yee Ha! The proverbial monkey is off our backs. Had to get up at 5:00 EDT so I had to call it an evening in the bottom of 8th. Bad enough that there was 2 on with 1 out but Neshek must have put out the fire and Harris nails it down in the 9th. Thank goodness for Altuve.

    Becky, please come home!

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  17. Just saw the lineups. Rangers have 3 starting that are hitting under .250. We have 6. Say what you will about BA doesn’t matter and I know it is out of style and alsounderstand importance of consider OBP and OPS in judging hitters. But while I can’t demonstrate causation, there is definitely potential correlation to why the Rangers beat up on us. Hope we show up with hot bats on this hot afternoon for the split.

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  18. I have not had time to write about the draft tonight – but looking around at mock drafts – these are some names that are tied to the Astros first round – 17th overall pick.
    – Cody Sedlock – RHP – Illinois
    – T.J. Zeuch – RHP – Pittsburgh
    – Dakota Hudson – RHP – Miss. St
    – Cal Quantrill – RHP – Stanford
    – Eric Lauer – LHP – Kent St.
    – Forrest Whitley – RHP – Alamo Heights HS (TX)

    So that is shown as all 6 pitchers / 5 in college and 1 in HS / 5 rightys and 1 lefty

    I guess we will see. But since they flunked on Aiken and Appel and went top heavy on position players last draft – it might make sense to go for a more mature ready person – like a college pitcher.

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  19. McHugh was absolutely perfect for two innings.
    The moment the Astros scored two runs, he completely fell apart.
    Isn’t that the way this season has gone?
    They do something good and it gets negated almost immediately.

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  22. 4-3 Rangers in the eighth inning. Altuve singled in a run in the 7th to make it a 1-run game. Devenski has pitched three good innings in relief.

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  23. Report on two Astros pitchers today:

    McHugh 3.2 IP 4R 7H 1BB 6K 85 pitches
    Devenski 3.1 IP 0R 0H 1BB 2K 42 pitches

    Man – I know who had a better day!!

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  26. No word on Correa. Altuve is playing SS.
    Feldman gives up a HR to Odor in the bottom of the 8th.
    5-3 Rangers, going to the 9th.

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    • Dave, I don’t know how to account for what has happened to the Astros bats. Altuve and Springer are hitting, but Rasmus, Castro, Gomez, Marisnick, Marwin, White and Tucker(earlier) just can’t seem to break out of their slumps and Correa’s BA is way below what most people thought he would hit.
      It’s just sad that two or three guys are always having to try and carry the others.
      One thing I can say in Correa’s defense is that he is 21 and six months younger than Bregman, who is still down in AA.
      I sure wish somebody could help the team with their hitting, and I’m sure the Astros would have their hitting coach’s back, but what will it take to get this thing going?

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      • OP, overall, our bats are just not real good. Marwin would be a solid utility man on most teams, especially if he could run. But we’re using him as a regular. We lack depth. I mentioned our outfielders. Jake is showing his historical stats, taking away April of 2015. Gomez is either damaged goods, or in the worst slump of his career. Valbuena is hitting .240, but it’s a soft .240, with just 6 homers and a .740 OPS. But again, those are historically accurate stats for him. I don’t know how to explain White with his .900 plus road OPS and his .400 something home OPS. He badly needs a trip back to the safety of AAA to play everyday, but he seems to be blocked from going down! Castro is Castro. Gattis will be Gattis. Correa? He’d be fine in a solid lineup, but we’ve put our 22 year old in the three slot, because we’ve got nobody else to play there. Maybe it’s time we move him to the two slot and put Altuve at three. But it still leaves us with a very suspect offense overall, from 4 all the way down to 9. That’s reality. And again, when help from below is a soft hitting Kemp, it really tells us that in mid 2016, we still don’t have guys ready to help on the farm.

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  33. The Astros are allowed to pay out a tad less than $6million in signing bonuses in the draft to avoid penalties. They might play a little game in their top draft picks, but Luhnow said that they were going to spend money scouting the draft differently this year because they don’t have all those top picks.
    Not doing something different is actually doing something different for Luhnow, so there is a possibility he might play things straight this year and go BPA because the whole system is going to change with a new CBA this off season.
    There are already a lot of rumors about the Astros spending tons of money on international free agents, including big penalties for overspending and going after many expensive foreign free agent youngsters, because that market could change drastically if MLB decides to have a draft of foreign players starting next year.
    If Luhnow plans on spending big on young foreign players next month, that might also figure to steer this weekend’s draft from HS players to college players almost exclusively for Houston.
    I would not be surprised to see a couple of college outfielders and a college catcher in our top ten rounds and a couple of LH starting pitchers, too.

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  34. With Devenski not likely to pitch the next 2 days and Correa day-to-day with an ankle sprain this might be a good time to send Devo down and bring up Worth.

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    • Do we have an open spot on the 40 man, or do you suggest they cut Chapman? I imagine we see Fontana before Worth…unless Luhnow thinks Altuve can play SS and they stick Kemp at 2B.

      That was a joke, btw, because Valbuena and Marwin are both more logical SS stopgaps.

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      • I think Chapman and Peacock are easy DFA candidates, but I would prefer Chapman being DFA’d before Peacock. We do not have an open spot on the 40-man roster and Worth has earned a look, in my opinion, over Fontana, but I understand your point that Fontana is already on the 40-man roster so it’s more likely he gets called up before Worth.

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  35. And then they pick a “veteran” with the 2nd pick – Junior OF Ronnie Dawson out of Ohio St. He hits left handed, has speed and power – 13 HR and 21 SB in 65 games. He also had only a few more K’s than BB’s and an OBP over .400.

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  36. I haven’t been able to get interested in the draft this year at all. Other than 2012 with Correa and McCullers, there have been too many disappointments. I know there are still a lot of seeds germinating, but it seems that there has also been a lot of “failures to launch” which clouds my perspective. I don’t trust our system’s ability to develop prospects and allow them to achieve their full potential. I am tired of hearing about “next year” and our “solid core”. At the rate we are moving, the solid core will be reaching free agency before the prospects bloom. Didn’t the Cubs start their rebuild after us or at about the same time? Would you rather have the Cubs major league players/manager/GM or ours? I see 6-7 starting position players and 3 starting pitchers in our lineup that are under performing at the ML level. I don’t see anybody down on the farm that is ready to come up and be expected to do any better this season than what we already have in the lineup. The whole “process” smells like a sardine factory to me right now.

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    • Applauding your post Nance.
      Let me add, this is Luhnow’s fifth year as GM without much to show for his efforts.
      Correa has declined this year and McClurrer’s is not making much progress. And I don’t see any saviors arriving in the near future. Is this what we so patiently waited for? The Cubs have risen to the top in about the same time.
      “The plan” isn’t working. Can we please move on.

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    • I started looking at a mock draft a week starting in January. It’s only to pinpoint a different player each time so that I could keep an ear out in case they were ever mentioned in an article or an interview. I never ran across Forrest Whitley until May, when he started to get linked to the Astros.
      Of course, this isn’t how anything works. Astros scouts have scouted the top 2000 players in the country for the last two years. They have already scouted the top 2000 players for next year’s draft. The Astros have been looking at Whitley for two years.. The means and ability to follow these players and keep up with their stats, which are so difficult to pinpoint at a high school level is an art unto itself.
      The idea that a high school pitcher could one day pitch in the majors is such an uncommon thing. High school pitchers face competition which most likely will not even cut the mustard at the college level in 9 out of 10 batters they face.
      When Forrest Whitley gets to a place like Tri-City in a year or two, every batter he faces will be like that one guy who was good enough to make it in high school. That is why most players fail. Minor leagues cull.
      Major league players are so rare and have to go through so much to get there, that they are hard and mean as a nail gun by the time they arrive at the top. A guy like Altuve is a gem because he is a terrific player and a good guy, too. A lot of players are so hardened by the time they become major league players that they are no longer just normal people.
      How they deal with all this determines how they end up in the real world. Most of these guys have grown up in a world where only one thing matters.

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      • Amateur baseball fan question: They once said the 4-minute mile was impossible. Can the high school transition barrier be broken the same way?

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  37. That is not a good sentiment that Nance put forth…but it’s where I’m at as well.
    Just getting tired of waiting. Waiting for what ?? A contender ? The players nor the coaches nor management have demonstated any ability in that direction. THEYYY…think the fans should continue to be patient, I guess.
    When is enough , enough ?
    Now I read from OP that the FO may aggressively pursue adding more foreign players , none of which I have any feel for or knowledge of. It would be nice if I could understand what they say when interviewed, or had a clue about from where they hailed.
    If this is the predominant direction of baseball, hence forward, guess I will just have to stick to college games for my fix

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    • I would like you to change your opinion of that, but how is that possible. Almost every foreign born player that the Astros sign or will sign come from extremely poor lives. Listen to Altuve’s story and Correa’s story. It is the story of almost every player in the Dominican leagues. The money that the Astros and every other team pays out to foreign players will go to families that have nothing, absolutely nothing and baseball has become their gift from God. A chance for their parents and siblings to have a stove, running water, decent meals that both of their parents could hardly afford for their families, even though they both worked two jobs.
      So many American born baseball players had everything they needed to become what they are. The huge majority of these foreign players have not enough clothes to wear. It is absolutely an honor to receive their talents into the baseball community and, in turn offer their families, and even their family’s families to a world where water is clean and there is a store to buy food and medicine for them and their children. Our baseball, to them, is so precious, we cannot begin to understand how good it is for them.

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    • Beltre, Odor, Mazarro, Profar, Darvish.

      David Ortiz. Victor Martinez. Miguel Cabrera.

      Jose Altuve.

      Bobby Abreu. Richard Hidalgo. When we lost that pipeline it really hurt the franchise. I have no bias against foreign … even if Luhnow had recent swings and misses. We still have a lot of talent that may develop.

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  38. Since 2012, when Luhnow was put in charge of the draft, the Astros have had 5 players drafted by them make it to the major leagues. You may say, ‘is that all?”, but then I dug deeper and the Rangers, under Jon Daniels, have had 3 players drafted since 2012 (Gallo, Kela and Chi Chi Gonzalez) make the major leagues. The draft is a crapshoot and the success rate of draftees is very low. Daniels does have the benefit of a larger budget thanks to a better television contract with Fox Sports Southwest. Jon Daniels is widely regarded as one of the top GM’s in the game.

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    • So what’s your point? Compare the quality of the five Houston players to the three In Arlington. Just making it to the major leagues but not competing does not make him a better Gzm.

      Luhnow and Crane told the fans to be patient while they rebuilt the minor league system. We have been extremely patient and to what end. This team is spinning its wheels and going nowhere.

      Luhnow has had five years to rebuild. He has not been successful so Crane needs to move on.

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      • I think you have every right to be disappointed. However, it may shock many, that I don’t think our drafting is the problem. I’m with daveb (I think) when I say the development is the problem.

        It goes beyond guys not hitting up to expectations, not being able to grind out wins on the mound, or even find success in the bullpen. Our team is BARELY losing too many games. This is not luck or statistical aberration.

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      • I wholeheartedly agree Devin. But that’s under Luhnow’s control too.
        With the proper development more of our current draftees would be better major league players.
        Until the Lunhow experiment is replaced with a group of managers and coaches with more solid baseball experience we can expect the same underachieving results.

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    • Tim – this is apples and oranges.
      First – the Astros had the much better drafting position in each round – not just the first round and had those supplemental picks.
      Second – The Astros were so bad that guys were brought up out of necessity – the Rangers did not have to do that.

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      • Yes, but I don’t think JD had a 33rd round pick make it. My point is that take out Correa and LMJ and they both had 3 make it and Gallo was a high draft pick.

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      • My point is that we had so many black holes in the 25 man the Astros should have had a lot more. I am not an anti-Luhnow guy. I have been pretty even handed with him. But I am doubting he is going to be the right guy to lead the team as they spend more money. He might be – he might improve as he goes forward – but he has made too many poor decisions percentage-wise in the last couple years to gain my confidence.
        I have the same problem over with the Rockets. I’m not sure Morey is ever going to get that team over the hump and he has an owner who will spend money.

        The biggest reason I do give Luhnow some leash is because I do not know how much of the stuff he is trying is because of tight budgetary constraints from his owner. Sometimes people will try to be innovative (cheap) and have less leeway between them and failure. But right now I do not think our team or our minor league organization is as good as last year. And that is how I judge the decision makers.

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      • Dan,

        I probably agree with most of what you said, but my leash is longer than yours. Also, all 5 players I mentioned either made their MLB appearance in 2015 or this year when the Astros had already turned the corner. I’m not 100% sold on Luhnow, but I’m not ready to say he should go. I guess I’m more patient with the process than most fans and I just think a change right now would really set us back. I want to see how this season plays out and then re-evaluate. I think most fans are overly frustrated because our in-state, division rivals have just dominated us from the start of 2015 through now and many of us have friends and family members that are Rangers fans. Our record against 28 other teams, overall, is good, but those dang Rangers are a burr in our saddle.

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      • He’s drafted well. I wasn’t happy with the Aiken pick even before it was made, but that wasn’t a seriously deep draft class to begin with. I again thought he made a mistake on Appel, but there is still time for Appel to prove me wrong. So far Bryant is making him look off. Outside of those 1-1s though he has been very good.

        It’s his record with trades, not so much what he has given up, that’s yet to be determined, but the players he targeted in those trades like Conger, Carter, Gomez, Fiers, Giles, they have not performed well at all, sometimes dragging us down with the team being better without them in the lineup than in. Even Gattis has not been as good as we hoped he would be. The idea that they have been plus value because Folty, Tropeano, Perez, VV, Appel, Santana, Phillips, Nottingham, etc., haven’t been as good yet just smacks in the face of the patience he was supposed to have. VV and Tropeano have both been better than any value that was returned so far, and there are some useful pieces in that list that would be helping that minor league OF depth.

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  40. We could have 5 or 15 guys make it through the minor league system to the ML club, but that means little. We have a mediocre ball club. The GM’s job is to win at the major league level, regardless of what path he takes.

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    • Yes, but there is more to a GM’s job than just winning at the major league level. Ultimately, that is the most important goal, but there is so much more to it than just a winning major league team. I’m in the same corner as OP. There is still a ton of talent brewing in the minor leagues and being 4 games under .500 on June 10th, while not what we expected, is not like the season, or future, is lost. Prior to the Rangers series the Astros had won 11 of 13 and we don’t face them again until August. They are only 5 games back of the 2nd WC team and plenty of time to make that up.

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      • Tim, ultimately, it’s all about winning at the major league level. Make no mistake about that. I too see lot’s of talent in the minor league system, but if it does not translate into the Astros winning more games than the other clubs in the league, then the GM has failed. How long the GM gets to make this mediocre team a winner is a separate issue. And I suspect the owner will give him more time than I would, unless they totally tank. And even then, Hinch is probably the sacrificial lamb.

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      • You’re right, but 4 games under .500 after approximately 62 games is not reason to panic and call the plan a failure, in my opinion.

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  41. I haven’t given up on the Astros. I do think they are going to have to trade some players to make their minor leagues as good as they were a year ago.
    But there are some things going on.
    1. Brady Rodgers is one of the best pitchers in the 16-team PCL. It’s not my opinion, it’s a fact. He is the fourth best pitcher in that league and it has taken him a second year in AAA to get there. He is top 4 in ERA, Ks, K/BB, and WHIP and he is going to be named a PCL All-Star or it will be a huge ripoff. His AAA stats this year are better than Folty, Wojo, Cosart, Appel, Ober, Peacock, ever had for us in AAA. His stats are better than Musgrove in AAA, so far. Rodgers is looking like he could become a decent starting pitcher in the majors and he is mature.. He could be ready by September and he wasn’t even protected in the Rule 5 last fall. He will certainly will be protected this fall.
    2. Danny Worth never had good stats, ever, until last year at Reno when he hit 50 points higher than anytime in his professional career. This year he is hitting 40 points higher than last year and he is doing it with one of the highest OPS in AAA. The guy has come into his own at age 30 and somebody is going to profit from it. Right now it could be Houston. From 2011 to 2013 Worth was optioned to and from the minors 15 times. But is in the last two years that he has hit the ball like crazy in AAA. His time is here. Danny Worth is going to be a major leaguer next year. We got him for nothing and we need to take advantage of that soon.
    3. Frances Martes is back!
    4. David Paulino is coming.
    5 Joe Musgrove is coming.
    6. Michael Feliz is here.
    7.LMJ is here
    8. Colin Moran and Alex Bregman are coming.
    9.Carlos Correa and George Springer are here.
    10.Jose Altuve is a rock star.
    11 Preston Tucker, Tyler White and Tony Kemp are going to play.
    12. Derek Fisher and Teoscar Hernandez are going to be major league outfielders.
    13, Hoyt, Gustave and McCurry are going to be good major league pitchers.
    It’s gonna happen.

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    • OP…….you brought me back to this blog , and for that my dear friend I thank you.
      There are a few things that bring me pleasure in my life, my grandchildren, my children and this crazy baseball team we all love. Good years, and bad years….we care that’s why we’re are here, and have been together for many, many years.
      I won’t let anyone take that from me again….EVER.
      Thank you sir for making me realize I have a voice on this blog.

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      • Becky, much as I love OP, I honestly think more than one person brought you back and stood in your corner. Sandy, for instance, has made countless points over time about your importance here. She has been an absolute warrior for you. Scroll back and you’ll see what I mean. Have a great weekend! 🙂

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      • Diane……you are soo right.
        Sandy you have been my warrior and so has Diane and Nance.
        My oncologist told me Monday that I will have to go through another round of chemo In JulY and August. Evidently because 6 polyps in my colonoscopy were starting to become cancer, he thinks we need to be proactive with my health. It sucks, and I HATE it….I’m trying not to have a pity party.
        Girls and guys you are ALL the best. Becky⚾

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  42. I’m not advocating firing everyone and starting over from scratch but I’d like to see a little more baseball instinct and less sabermetrics.
    How many times has the over shifting came back to bite? ( No facts here Tim ) but I’d guess at least 25%.
    Just a smidgen of baseball sense would go a long way. No?

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    • Sandy,

      I would also like to see us not so driven by sabermetrics, but I do understand the importance of advanced metrics in baseball and the Astros shouldn’t abandon it. The Red Sox made a shift in philosophy over the off-season and admitted they won’t be as analytics driven as they were in the past, but they still value the importance of advanced metrics and will continue using them as a part of their evaluation. I would like to see the Astros take the same approach.

      The problem with shifting is that most fans only see when it works against their favorite team. However, the numbers have shown that the Astros have benefitted from shifting, overall. According to the stats the Astros have more defensive runs saved from shifting than if they had not shifted at all.

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      • I do admit that when that ball rolls through the infield where nobody is, it hurts more than a normal hit. I also have begun to notice how many times a batted ball flies past the pitcher and one of our infielders is up the middle to pick it up and throw the guy out, instead of the ball being a single up the middle.
        I will admit that I don’t like the xtreme outfield shifts because a normal single turns into a double or a triple too often to suit me in the last month or so. I think if you have the best defensive outfield in baseball you should be able to play straightaway and get to almost every ball hit out there without giving up the extra base hits.

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      • Tim, I would like to review their algorithm for determining success probability. For some reason they think shifting on slap hitters in the ninth inning, protecting a 2 run lead, will lead to success. Why give a guy a free base who certainly won’t hurt you with the long ball?

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      • Yes, OP, the OF shifts, especially considering the range of the Astros OFers, bother me much more than the IF shifts. I’m more inclined to allow the OFers to play either more shallow or deeper, based upon the power of the hitter at the plate, but the shifting to the left or right concerns me more. With that being said it’s difficult to quantify, with the naked eye, what effect shifting has on saving runs. I choose to trust what the numbers tell me, but it doesn’t stop me from cringing when I see a single to LF in the spot vacated by Correa because he shifted behind 2B.

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    • My sentiments exactly Sandy. And I also think the Astros are using the shift too much. I’m not sure about the numbers either. Defensive numbers are kind of wonky. For example, if they are in the shift and the SS makes a play that would have normally been made by the 2B under normal positioning, does that mean the shift worked? And how do they define a shift anyway? Is it 2 feet, 5 feet, 10 feet from expected placement? I don’t know and I don’t really care to know. It goes back to what you said. Data and advanced metrics are valuable but only when accompanied by a very healthy dose of baseball IQ.

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      • The shifts aren’t fooling anyone……case in point when the rangers, continually hit the balls in between Altuve and Correa. Nope…..not fooling anyone.

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  44. We got another “Jake” today, his name is Jake Rogers, and he’s a catcher from Tulane!! Can’t wait to get him in the fold, can’t have too many catchers!!

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    • Crawfish Boxes quotes somebody saying he may be the best defensive position player in this draft. Quite a compliment.
      However, he has not hit very well in college. Maybe we should send him to Corpus Christi and let them work on his hitting for two years.

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  45. So far, we are drafting like I hoped we would. BPA in round 1 and college pitchers, college outfielders and college catchers in the top 10 rounds.
    The guy from Seminole State, Abraham Toro-Hernandez, has a very big bat and has been at 3B, but his coach says he sees him as a major league catcher and says “he can play”.

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  46. Astros drafted a RHP from the Coogs today. He’s from Dulles HS in Missouri City and Alvin JC. Rick Hernandez. That’s cool!

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  47. I’m attending a business convention in Corpus Christi in the morning. I am leaving the hotel now to grab dinner and attend the Hooks game. I am looking forward to seeing Bregman in person. Peace out!

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