Speaking out of both sides of my mouth: Why (why not) the Astros are OK

Watching the first 10 games of the season for the Astros dark thoughts intertwine with optimism in looking at the 2016 team. The following is a smorgasbord of why the Astros are OK or Not OK going forward.

Ok. Tyler White is a brilliant hitter and a huge upgrade at first base.

Not OK. Even Ted Williams cooled off to hit .406 in 1941.

OK. The Houston Astros were a playoff team last season and on paper have a better team all the way around this season.

Not OK. That and a nickel will only get you about 1/100th of a Starbucks coffee today. Last year is dead and gone like Jimmy Hoffa.

OK. Everyone knew the early season would be a struggle with the schedule they were facing.

Not OK. It is not that they are losing, but how they are losing – not pitching when hitting well, not hitting when pitching well, losing a gross of runners on the base paths, the bullpen giving up dingers like a Home Run Derby, etc.

OK. George Springer has 5 tools and the only thing holding him back has been freak injuries. Let him play 150 games and watch the stats mount.

Not OK. Hitting and hitting with power are supposed to be two of those tools, but those tools both seem to be circular ceiling fans so far this season.

OK. Carlos Gomez was one of the very best players in 2013 and 2014 and was down in 2015 because of injuries.

Not OK. 2013 and 2014 feel as far away as 2003 and 2004 when watching him play this season.

OK. Jason Castro, Luis Valbuena, Scott Feldman and Carlos Gomez will be playing for new contracts and should be doing their best to make big bucks in the future.

Not OK. The operative phrase is “doing their best”.

OK. As long as the Astros have Kid Keuchel leading the rotation they will be fine.

Not OK. The Kid’s beard may turn all grey from trying to lead this pitching staff.

OK. Lance McCullers Jr. will return and give this team a shot in the arm.

Not OK. Some people think the kind thing would be for Lance to help the team with euthanasia.

OK. Ken Giles will figure things out – he has great stats the last two years.

Not OK.  Vince Velasquez seems to have figured things out in the City of Brotherly Hate.

OK. A.J. Hinch showed himself to be a steady hand on the tiller last season.

Not OK. Captain Smith was well thought of until the Titanic was sitting at the bottom of the ocean.

OK. In Luhnow We Trust

Not OK. What have you done for us lately, Jeff?

So where are you on the OK / Not OK scale?

204 responses to “Speaking out of both sides of my mouth: Why (why not) the Astros are OK”

  1. I’m on the OK side of the divide right now. The mistakes are correctable. The things that concern me:
    1. Castro is swinging through everything. Do we have a hitting coach that can get him to make an adjustment to get the barrel on the right plane?
    2. Luhnow is not getting us reinforcements. Say what you want of the prospects – my complaint still stands: he probably got $.50 on the $1 for each of his trades bringing major leaguers to town and you wonder who he could have had instead for the caliber or prospects lost.
    3. The ballpark is still an embarrassment. Good call on those lights, fellas!

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  2. I remember driving through Dallas last year in early May. Our Astros were riding high after the monster win streak. The Rangers were reeling under a slough of injuries and were struggling big time just to stay afloat. I remember driving by a billboard near the I-45/I-30 interchange that showed a larger-than-life picture of a gritty Adrian Beltre laying out for a liner someone had smoked down the line. The only words on the billboard were ‘#NeverEverQuit’. I chuckled to myself, thinking ‘ that’s nonsense – they’ve already quit!’ Their best pitcher was out for the year. Their big-name position players were looking old and gimpy. A light-hitting, cocky to the point of being out of control Rule 5 guy they had plucked away from us in the off-season because we did not think enough of him to put him on the 40-man was the best excuse for a CF they could put on the field. I was pretty sure that, considering how badly they started this season, they would finish 3rd or 4th in the division at best. And I fully expected them to collapse completely under the intense summer heat of Arlington and finish in the cellar – as they had done so many times before.

    The rest is history. They meant that NeverEverQuit thing. A lot of their guys – guys I had quite frankly written off – stepped up, overcame adversity, and put a good ole Texas whooping on everybody in the division. They were especially hard on the super-talented youth of ClubAstros.

    So which side of the divide am I on? It depends on whether somebody or some group of ‘Stros can get serious before we start division play, get gritty, and change the philosophy of the team completely from ClubAstros to something like ‘#NoRetreatBabyNoSurrender’.

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  3. It’s only 10 games but I find myself checking my calendar seems like 2013. It ‘s like something was done to these 25 guys, aliens something. I look at the lineup and say we cant be this bad, I saw a stat last night that the last 5 games our SP ERA was 2.70 and we have looked horrible , with a few exceptions of course.

    They look lost, flat, pressing, clueless at times, lackluster, I mean boneheads.
    Was ST to much like Spring Break, something is just not right!

    Ok all My awesome Chipalatta friends 10 games in what you say their 2016 record is going to be now.

    I’m feeling 80-82

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    • 85-77. Things should pick up when LMJ gets back. If you have DK, LMJ, and McHugh in the rotation I think the position players will stop trying to do it all and relax. I would love to see what Devenski could do as a starter.
      Fister just doesn’t have it anymore. Any outs he gets is just luck.

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  4. Minute Maid Park is a fine facility and I’m proud of it. I look forward to going to the games. To those that don’t care for it…stay home. Baseball is good on TV too.
    Apparently the positioning of some of the new lighting was a mistake. It’s interesting that I have not yet seen any opposing right fielders struggle with it.
    I just think our fair haired, heavily promoted Mr. Springer needs to step up and play some smart baseball.

    Liked by 1 person

    • TNT I sad the exact same thing last night to my wife. Why are the lights only messing up our RF? I’m starting to think Mr. Bill may have hit on it, a 5 tool guy missing the 6th tool. Don’t get me wrong everyone I think he is a great kid , but I’m starting to worry about the part of baseball that is played between your ears.

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  5. TNT, he’s done a fine job playing out of position since he joined this club. Losing a ball in the lights? He’s not making it up.

    I’m still optimistic that the club will end April with a .500 record. I’d like to think we’re getting the crappiest part of the season out of the way early.

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  6. Dan, OP, anyone…an off subject question..
    Was debating with my son last evening about the best all time Astros (45’s) hitter.
    I have been paying attention since the 70’s.
    Honestly..I could not think of anyone better than Berkman. Wynn maybe ?Caminiti in his prime ? Morgan (spit)? Bagwell ?? Staub ?
    Please don’t hold it against me for being off subject here.

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    • Tough, but good question. I think Berkman was a better, more rounded hitter than anyone else on the list. The problem is that different eras played under different expectations and conditions. Wynn and Bagwell were in the Dome. Berkman got all but 50 games in MMP. Walks were sometimes criticized as selfish until somewhat recently. Also, the available pharmaceuticals and training methods cloud the issue. For example, I would like to know what a guy like Bill Doran would have done with today’s technology, knowledge, and ballpark. Consider, also, many guys will not give them self up to drive in a run these days, but it was a valued strategy before.

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      • Like great Running Backs, hitters have different qualities. There was a time when they wouldnt throw a strike to Bagwell and Bonds (Thomas), so those OBP numbers – huge. All the more reason to protect a hitter like White on both sides. I was going to say the same re: eras bc before there was Hidalgo Beltran, there was Cedeno who gets overlooked. Morgan was a beast. Carl Everett had a big year, Kent hit deep gappers with a flick of the wrist, Jimmy Wynn pound for pound, “it just sounded different” – Glen Davis. Bags without question on never before seen (213 OPS+), Biggio in the conversation for clutch – neither in the playoffs. I think both Tuve and Correa have a chance at significant numbers. I thought “blood test us all” Puma was every bit as powerful as Bagwell and with less effort. Both deserve the Hall.

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  7. Time for me to beat the dead horse. Bad trades are not working out. And most of those have been pitchers traded that are good elsewhere that weren’t given chances here. I’ll be glad to see McCullers back in the rotation. I think Devinski should get a shot. Not impressed with Feldman or Fister. Hopefully Fiers will be OK. Otherwise it looks like a bad report card (3 – F’s).
    The Catcher position is a black hole. Don’t we have anybody at the Minor league level who can hit? Might as well forget about Lucroy because it will cost us dearly. Two years ago we had all of this talent at the minor league level and although we still have some potential we have given away a bunch to get players who haven’t produced. Remember that the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
    I was looking at the K’s and we have 4 with double digits already (Springer, Castro, Gomez, White). White is palatable because of the obvious but the others BA is pathetic. Springer and Gomez look like they are trying to hit a HR every swing. Castro (Need I say anything here).
    Now for the good news….ZZZZZZZ.
    Ok, Altuve, Rasmus, Correra, White, Tucker are doing well with White off the charts. The rest of the guys need to step up.
    I agree with one post I saw. Hinch needs to light a fire under some of these guys cause the laid back approach isn’t going to cut it for everybody. We are all different and respond differently.
    I’m still optimistic we can get the train back on the tracks but we better start soon or the hole will be too deep to climb out of.

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  8. At 3-7, where are the Astros OK? They are ok at #1 starter, closer, utility infielder, 1B, 2B, LF and SS.
    At 3-7, they are not ok at every other position, every other pitcher, on the basepaths, at the plate, and behind the plate.
    As every one of their batters start to press and break down, Altuve, the most pure hitter on the team and in the AL, just keeps hitting.
    If Altuve plays this way for 10 more years, he passes Bagwell as the best hitting Astros player ever.

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      • Yes Sandy, I think he will be OK. But, with that first start, he falls in the “not OK” category for what he has done so far. His first start absolutely drained this team and they haven’t recovered from it, yet. Feliz, obviously, hasn’t recovered from it yet, either.

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      • True, but if I’m going to need a utility player to play five positions and do a real good job of it, he’s it. It’s not like he has had any chance to get some rhythm at the plate. I still have to put him as being OK because he’s doing his job sitting on the bench and guaranteeing that we have a good defensive substitute whenever we need him. He’s got 15 PAs in 8 games, for goodness sake. The Astros have yet to face a LH starter, so he has few RH ABs, which is his dominant side.
        Carlos Gomez has been terrible every day and he still gets to play every day, despite the fact he was lousy last year and this year.

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  9. I thought of Billy Doran as well. And I failed to consider the venues…but that is an important aspect. The Dome was a monster and HRs hit there were not cheap.
    And I agree…the “equipment” has made a difference as well.

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    • I remember a national magazine (Sport?) writing an article saying the best clutch hitter in the league was Aspromonte. Anyone that gets 3,000 hits has to be on the list someplace. My “eyeball” says Altuve has to be on the list. We tend to favor the power hitters for a good reason

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  10. What Dan thinks:
    – I am completely speaking out of school here – but I wonder if Mr. Springer has had Lasik. Often times people with Lasik see haloes around lights at night anyways and maybe he is really struggling with these new lights that were kind of blinding to me anyways.
    – If I had a regular season AB – I would want Bagwell up as the hitter. If I had a playoff AB – I would want Berkman as the hitter.
    – I would love to see what Jimmy Wynn would have done at MMP. I can’t count how many flyballs died at the warning track in the huge early version of the Dome (when there was no inner fence).
    – It is early – but they need to right the ship soon. They need to win a series and start on the path back. They don’t need to be 3-10 by Sunday.

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    • The majority of Bagwell’s ABs came in the Dome. The majority of Berkman’s came in MMP. Bagwell, in his prime at MMP, would have 100 more HR’s and 200 more RBIs and would have been a 1st ballot HOFer.

      Liked by 1 person

  11. Last year, the National’s were the odds on favorites to win the NL East and go to the WS. They had the players and played very poorly.
    This year the Astros are favored by many to win the AL West and make a run at the WS. If they don’t, we could look back and say they had the players and played very poorly.
    Then what happens?

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  12. I mentioned this earlier, but if you take out that 10-game winning streak early last year we have been a .500 team. I’m starting to think that’s all we are. The upgrades in the offseason were just enough to keep up with the rest of the fast improving A.L. Our weaknesses have been exposed and we aren’t as good as the best teams in the A.L. We’ll have some streaks of success, but at this point I think the Astros are a .500 team and we’ll finish 81-81.

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    • That would sure make it easy to be sellers at the deadline, wouldn’t it, Tim. Jettison and get what you can for Kratz, Gattis, Castro, Gomez, Rasmus, Fister, Valbuena, Neshek, Marwin and Feldman, and bring up the kids.
      Finish the year with Stassi, Heineman, Kemp, Marisnick, Aplin, Moran, Reed, Musgrove, Feliz, Devenski, Worth, Duffy, and Hoyt in their places. Bring Bregman, Gustave, and several others up in September.
      Then, with no payroll at all for next season, try to lock up Keuchel and go after another pitcher.
      Get rid of the hitting coach and the 3B coach. Hire somebody capable of developing minor league pitchers, because we’re not getting the job done there.
      Fire Luhnow and hire Nolan Ryan at the end of the year.
      That’s my opinion, which is worth nothing, based on how the players I thought would produce have done very little, so far. I thought our outfield would hit and two of the three look like little leaguers.

      Liked by 1 person

      • I do have more faith in Luhnow trading major leaguers for prospects as opposed to the other way around. Crane isn’t Drayton so I don’t think he’ll hesitate to punt on the season at the trade deadline if the team is still struggling. If this season is lost you might as well try and recoup some of the prospects lost in prior trades. Drayton drove me nuts hanging onto vets way too long even when it was evident the team wasn’t contending. I don’t think Crane or Luhnow will make the same mistakes.

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  13. Dang Tim and OP, you have got to have faith (at least wishful thinking). The pitching carried the Astros most of last year with timely (or lucky) HRs. Scott and LMJ are out of the rotation. The new pen addition seems to be flammable. But keep up the faith. Anytime that AJ phs JFSF for PTuck, he has tons of faith. And soon you two will tell me the Easter Bunny is not real.
    🙂

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    • ac, all I’m doing here is speculating on Tim’s comment about an 81-81 season. The players I named are making $63 million of the $95 million of the current Astros payroll and most will be free agents and most are not currently playing well.
      I still believe the Astros can turn it around if one of the players grabs his teammates by the throat and shakes them awake(figuratively). Who is going to take control and get this team to step up and play like they are capable of playing? My guess is it needs to be the guy who is one Altuve tall.

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  14. I submit 83-79 for the season.
    IF..we can improve the OF’s hitting, then this could easily be a 90 win season.
    Not sure the front office will allow AJ to do what needs to be done.
    The pitching will improve.

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  15. Like I said yesterday, our seats were right behind where Springer plays, and I was nearly blinded by the new LED lights…..and no, I have not had lasik surgery. If you look at the first 10 games of 2015, this team has one less win, and one more loss. Springer’S numbers through 10 games are higher than they were last year……so I’m backing away from the edge of the cliff. I said last night it was” time” to have a chat with my players. It’s time to take the temp of my players, and see what is, and is not working. Who knows, it might be a trivial problem that can be fixed pronto! I’m not gonna dismiss Springer’S concern with the lights out in right field…..but I would also see if the same problems are in left as well. Even though this team is pretty much the same as we ended up with last year, guys like Gomez and Fires only got here at the break, and Gomez was hurt almost as soon as he got here. AND….we didn’t have a powder keg named Ken Giles added to the back end of the bull pen. So…even tho I rant sometimes, it’s only because of frustration….and wanting sooo much for these guys to get out of the gates fast. I DO think Hinch needs to have a arm around the shoulder of some of my key players….never too soon to do that.

    Off subject….but I had a good laugh this morning when I read that the Rays are pulling their hair out because Conger can’t hold runners on…..*5* base steals yesterday when he was catching Chris Archer!!
    Welcome to our nightmare last year! I expect Stassi to be back in a week or two, so I’m hopeful that situation will get an upgrade. Same for the rotation, when McCullers gets back. Fister showed us last night that he losses focus quick, and it’s my opinion that he will walk in a few weeks with Cranes money in his pocket. PLEASE……give Devinski a chance to start. Give him a chance to show us if he is a Lance McCullers kinda kid, or does he need some extra time in the oven to cook. My mother used to tell us when we were growing up, “it’s never too late to stop, and take another road”.
    I’m still excited for this season……the guys are gonna be ok. Becky⚾

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  16. Line-up is out. You can imagine who is in CF and at DH. Fine. I don’t care who Mr. Hinch puts out there. Whoever you are, and whether you deserve to be there or not, this is your chance. Put your big boy pants on and knock the cover off of that baseball. No retreat. No surrender. No quarter.

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  17. Now all we need is for there to be a popup and have White, Altuve, Correa and Keuchel all collide in the middle of the diamond.

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  18. It doesn’t sound like McCullers is hurt, just a little arm fatigue. He says he feels great, but it might be a move of caution since he had some pain in his shoulder in Spring training. I’m not worried. I *AM* worried about Doug Fister…..think Ausmus will take him back with him to Detroit??

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  19. Random thoughts. What concerns me right now is that this team is finding a different way to lose every night. Too much like 2013. The baserunning mistakes, lack of situational awareness (Feldman’s throw!!) trouble with the lights, relief pitchers giving up HR, Keuchel digging himself into holes with walks etc.

    Feldman is a veteran pitcher. I was at the game Wednesday and that throw was unforgivable. If it was Escobar or Cain running I can see rushing but not with Morales hitting who can be timed to first base with a calendar.

    I would like to see Hinch reverse Springer and Altuve in the lineup. When Springer was hitting lead off he seemed to be more in control. Perhaps his power numbers would suffer but so what.

    Would love to see Marisnick sent down to Fresno and hit every day so that if Gomez continues to suck we have a viable alternative who won’t have to learn on the job at the MLB level.

    Can we get Moran up here soon? Give him a few more weeks at Fresno and if he continues to hit like he has in ST and so far in AAA he would be a major upgrade offensively over Valbuena.

    Does Giles have options? Swap him for Hoyt and let Giles work out his problems at Fresno. It was mystifying how Wednesday a guy who was consistently above 96 kept throwing sliders. I really think Giles problem is lack of fastball command. He didn’t throw many for strikes and had to throw the slider and eventually failed with it.

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  20. Nice should have gotten 3 or 4 runs there, nice at bat Gattis. Soon the dugout will break out in Kum bi ya! Glad we are using everyone making everyone feel warm and fuzzy while we loose.

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  21. Feldman had a tough time last year fielding his position. It costs him Wednesday.
    They won’t send Giles to Fresno….Hinch will give him every chance to get straight, bit I agree that’s what needs to happen. Saw that grands lam Moran hit the other night, he’s seeing the ball very good right now. Good post drbill14 !! I agree 100%.

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  22. Bases loaded with 1 out in the 1st and no additional runs. Then they have the bases loaded with no outs in the 2nd and don’t score. This game is over. They’re losing this game.

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    • Yeah, ridiculously bad at-bats by those two this homestand. Might as well send a pitcher (or maybe Orbit) up if that’s how G and G are going to approach it.

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  23. People remember the HRs and RBIs and ignore the 0 WAR Gattis put up. But that at-bat in the first inning is how he fails. Bases loaded, one out and a pitcher really struggling, until Gattis just fails miserably at the plate. Over and over again last season that happened and they gave him a raise instead of sending him packing. You don’ get zero WAR in 600 plate appearances unless you are a lousy dadgum hitter.
    Any wonder why this team is in trouble?

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  24. I’ll take the win, but my glass is still half empty with the offensive struggles they are having. Keuchel was, obviously, huge tonight.

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  25. OH MY GOODNESS!! Rasmus earned a big chunk of that money tonight!
    Keuchel has won 17 straight games at MM!!
    Keuchel A+
    RasmusA+
    GomezF-
    Gattis F-
    Can’t have many games like this. How many guys left on base…10-12?

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  26. Well that’s the definition of a #1 starter. He stops the losing streak. He ignores the run support he should have gotten and works with the one run he was given. What a stud.

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  27. Dallas Keuchel sets the tone for this team, I just hope the rest of this team is paying attention. The hitting coach needs to be shown the door. I wasn’t impressed with his work last year….REALLY not impressed THIS year. Something needs to wake this team up.

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  28. Fresno had over 13,000 fans at their home opener tonight. Worth and Reed were the hitting stars with Reed’s homer in the eighth being the game winner. Peacock gave up one hit in five innings, but 4 BB. Hoyt pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.

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  29. Astros hitters: Agreed, Cedeno way under rated (led the team in WAR 5 seasons in a row). Bob Watson was a good “professional hitter”. Joe Morgan didn’t really become Joe Morgan till he went to Cincy. And yes, Jimmy Wynn at MMP would be something else. But Bagwell. That 1994 season was one for the ages. Every time I turned on the radio the guy was on base or getting a hit. He played 110 games and only 9 games did he not reach base by hit, walk or error. He was on pace for 56 HR and over 430 TB (which would have been in the top 6 all time). AND THIS WAS IN THE DOME! That was hitting greatness like this town has never seen before or since.

    Come on folks, 11 games. Far from panic time. Though one of the themes mentioned about hitting and pitching not matching up: I noticed this last year, and more specifically last year, there were rarely any times when there was more than 1 or 2 hitters hot at the same time. I’ve always heard hitting is contagious: if we ever get 3 or 4 or 5 guys hot at the same time, look out! But when you have 3 or 4 guys in the lineup with high K percentages that constantly flirt with the Mendoza line, it’s tough.

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    • amen steve. last year with 10 – 15 games left people were giving up, saying we are done, we are out of it etc. well we went on and made the playoffs and made a good run. this year 10 or so games in people are acting like the ship has sunk. come on folks, there are 150+ games left. 150! no time to panic is right!. im glad to see a steady voice joining back in the conversation.

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    • 3B is one of the under-performing positions on this team. I don’t know if Worth’s arm, his range, or his quickness on defense is really good enough to man the hot corner, though. I don’t suppose anybody wants the Captain to be moved to 3B, so worth [or Bregman, who is raking at Corpus] can play SS, do they?

      The best move to get Worth up and give him a try-out might be to put him in LF – corresponding with Rasmus moving to right and Springer moving to center. Gomez might need a little DL time ala the Pablo Sandaval syndrome; or maybe Jake could remember how to rake if he spent some time in Fresno.

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    • And he committed an error out there.
      AJ Reed had an error on a foul popup, but the caught another on the same batter.
      Tyler Heineman threw out both runners trying to steal..
      Worth had a single, double, and a HR.
      Reed had a double and a HR.
      Fresno has 3 regulars hitting over .400, 3 regulars hitting over .300, but Singleton is hitting .160.

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  30. I never thought I would see in 2016, 11 games into the season, we are all more excited and positive about Fresno that our Stros. Someone wake me up )-: , it feels like 2014.

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  31. A few noted from Lancaster’s 2-1 win over High Desert last night.
    Dean Deetz pitched real well for Lancaster(six innings, 5 hits and one run, no BBs and 5 Ks), but got himself in big trouble with two throwing errors.
    Lancaster had five hits in the game.
    Garrett Stubbs threw out the one guy who tried to steal on him.
    CF Jason Martin threw out a guy at second trying to stretch a single. A big play considering there was also a runner advancing to third on the play and there were no outs. Deetz pitched out of the jam.
    Riley Ferrell got the save but his nemesis, the walk, almost bit him in the rear, when he issued a base on balls with two outs in the ninth, followed by a single. He struck out the next batter to get the save. Ferrell’s control is what is holding him back.

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  32. I think the lights are in Springer’s head so bad it’s affecting his entire game. Heard him say on an interview that he wished we could play day games so they would be turned off. Have not noticed Rasmus fighting them in left or RF on the visiting teams struggling with them. Why not put Springer in center and Marisnick in right and see what happens. Jake needs some regular ABs and Gomez needs to sit and be the designated late inning PR.

    The lights are noticeable brighter with many fewer bulbs than the old ones. Wednesday night I had to keep my cap down on my head to block them so I could see the ball off the bat. OTOH there are practically zero shadows anywhere on the field. I wonder if LED lights in other stadiums are causing similar problems.

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  33. This is the third time they have won the first game of a series and both times previously they lost the remaining games (2 and 3) of the series. It is time to turn that around.

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  34. Altuve gets picked off.😠😠 I’m going to get I’m my car and drive to the park, and personally pinch the next guys head off that gets picked off base. Are they doing this by themselves…..or are they getting it from the dugout? GRRRRRRRRR.

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