Rule 5: Astros’ top 10 minor leaguers to consider

The Rule 5 draft is coming up in December and it is a major driver in the next set of personnel decisions every team in the majors will make in the next month. The Houston Astros will definitely have their share of personnel decisions to complete on their eligible minor leaguers after losing the maximum 3 players in the 2014 draft.

The three players selected from the Astros in 2014 covered the spectrum of possibilities for Rule 5 draftees, who are required to be on the major league roster of the team drafting them for a full season or be offered back to their old team at a nominal cost. Delino Deshields Jr., who had not played above AA level for the Astros, played all of 2015 with the Texas Rangers, scoring 83 runs, stealing 25 bases, producing a good .344 OBP and 10 triples (almost as many as Evan Gattis!!).  Jandel Gustave was drafted by the Red Sox, but was bought back by the Astros when the Sox decided they had no room on the MLB roster for him. David Rollins was drafted by the Mariners and almost immediately earned an 80 game PED suspension. This may have been a break as he put up a 7.56 ERA in 25 innings when he did pitch for the M’s.

The players eligible for the Rule 5 draft from the Astros will be those players who were 19 and over drafted and signed in 2011 and those 18 and younger drafted and signed in 2010, who are not on the Astros 40 man roster at the time of the draft. The following are one person’s opinion on the top 10 minor leaguers, who would be exposed to the Rule 5, if not added to the 40 man roster.

  1. Joe  Musgrove. The RHP turns 23 next month and was clearly the best of the Rule 5 eligible players. In 3 stops between A, A+ and AA ball he posted a 12-1 record, 1.88 ERA, 0.924 WHIP, 8.9 K / 9 IP and an unbelievable 0.7 K / 9 IP. He will be put on the 40 man.
  2. Chris Devenski. Devenski was another RHP, who performed well at AA with a 7-4 record, 3.01 ERA and 1.253 WHIP. He is basically turning 25 right now, which might lower his worth a bit.
  3. Jandel Gustave. The Rule 5 returnee from 2014 may be even more of a target in 2015. The 23 year old RHP closer had a 5-2 record with 20 saves, a 2.15 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP.
  4. Tyler Heineman. The catcher has to be a consideration for protection, especially if the Astros unload Hank Conger in the off-season. His offensive numbers were fine between AA and AAA – 3 HR, 30 RBIs with .285 BA / .334 OBP / .714 OPS, while he threw out 54% of runners at AA, but only 20% at AAA.
  5. Mike Hauschild. He turns 26 in January, but his AA/AAA numbers in 2015 earn him consideration. The rightys 12-6 record, 3.38 ERA, and 1.258 WHIP standout.
  6. Jordan Jankowski. The biggest negative is his turning 27 next May. But in AAA the RH reliever had an 8-3 record, 3.18 ERA and an 11.1 K/9 IP rate speaking for him. His 4.9 BB / 9 IP is problematic.
  7. Andrew Aplin. The OF turns 25 in March and showed off his speed and bat control in AA and AAA with 32 SBs, and .296 BA/ .413 OBP / .792 OPS. Only 2 HR on the season, but he has a lot of other things going for him.
  8. Danry Vasquez. The young OF has not yet turned 22, but had a decent year at A+ and AA with 3 HR, 40 RBIs, and a .272 BA / .321 OBP / .685 OPS line.
  9. David Paulino. Rising from A- to A+ ball, Paulino who turns 22 in February had impressive numbers such as a 5-3 record, 2.81 ERA, 1.010 WHIP and a strong 9.6 K/9 IP.
  10. Teoscar Hernandez. Sure he only hit for a .219 BA / .275 OBP / .637 OPS at AA. But three things may make him attractive – his age, 23, his 17 HRs and his 33 SBs. Those numbers stand out in this Rule 5 eligible class.

Honorable Mention. Whether it is the high OBPs of infielders Joe Sclafani (.381) and Nolan Fontana (.369), the low WHIP (0.986) of reliever Tyson Perez or the low ERA (1.99) and WHIP (1.037) of youngster Agapito Barrios there are certainly others that could be in this top 10 list. Maybe you like utility guy Marc Wik and his .802 OPS, LHP Brian Holmes and his 10.2 K / 9 IP or Catcher Roberto Pena throwing out 49% of AA runners. There is talent throughout the Astros minors and this includes many of the Rule 5 eligible players.

So….

  1. Who would you put on the 40 man roster to protect?
  2. Who would you drop off the 40 man to make more room for one or more of these youngsters?
  3. Do you agree with the list of 10 shown above?
  4. Is there anyone else you think should be considered for protection?
  5. Will the Astros have three men drafted during the Rule 5 draft again?
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165 responses to “Rule 5: Astros’ top 10 minor leaguers to consider”

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  1. Little typo on Musgrave. That is .7 BB/9.

    1. Not having seen any minor league games, I have no opinion on who to add.
    2. Conger, Carter, Grossman, Peacock, Straily, Singleton, Hoes?. Either trade any or all for a low a prospect or DFA. (If Heineman threw out ONLY 20% – what does that say about Conger?)

    We have plenty of OFers for now and the near future. Same with infielders. We need to protect a couple catchers. We will not play .500 ball if Castro is injured for any length of time.

    We have to protect the rest in pitchers if they have future value in the opinion of their managers and FO. So – Yes – we could lose 3 again this year.

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    • I agree with your list of dead weight currently on the 40-man roster, except for maybe, maybe Straily. The others add nothing as they are AAA talent almost exclusively.

      Losing three more to Rule V is certainly possible and will hurt, but that is the price for having a strong minor league system. The positive is, however, it will help relieve the bottleneck that is keeping some talent stuck at lower levels from rising toward the top.

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  2. Apparently Tyson Perez underwent elbow surgery very recently, so I don’t think we have to worry about him.
    Dan, I think you put a great list together of ten guys to strongly consider and I would add Pena to the list.
    I disagree with the idea that we have a lot of outfielders, I think of Tucker as a DH, we have only one outfielder currently on the Fresno roster, and Rasmus and Gomez are free agents at the end of 2016.
    I think we need to protect Musgrove and Paulino, Heineman and Pena, Teoscar and Gustave, and maybe Guduan. I give serious consideration to Guduan because you can count the number of LH pitchers with a 100mph fastball on one hand. Guduan is 23, finished the year at CC, and most assuredly was concentrating there on his secondary pitches or he would have been more effective.
    I don’t know what to say about Fontana or Aplin. I have followed them closely since the day they got here and played so well at Tri City.
    We can’t pull off a bunch of trades this week to clear roster spots, so I anticipate we will lose one or two guys we don’t want to lose.
    The last thing I want to say is that Musgrove and Paulino have good fastballs, multiple pitches and command already. I just don’t think we can afford to pass that up. I would consider adding them to the roster because they are 22, and taking off older pitchers who haven’t shown they have that kind of stuff at the major league level. I don’t like naming names because all the players are “our own” at this stage

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    • Just to clarify my comment. I think we need to protect at least one catcher and the top few pitchers. And we can’t release too many MLBers and hope that in the future some of the prospects are equal or better. Unless we dump Obie, Wojo, Cruz, or someone else, we are starting to cut fairly deep into the current 40 man. So if we remove 5-7, and add an equal number – we could easily fill all the spots with 1 catcher and 4-6 pitchers.

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      • I agree with you. It’s just so much easier for me to add players than to subtract them because of my attachments. You did a good job of it. I don’t see Singleton being let go because of his contract, but the others I could see.
        Having Kemmer develop unexpectedly and before he is Rule 5 eligible is a real blessing, because he helps make up for Vasquez and Teoscar taking longer than expected.
        Heineman, Pena and Stassi are all playing winter ball to give the club one last look at them. I hate losing catchers, period! Especially with Castro approaching free agency and watching Conger struggle this past season.

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  3. I am in line with you folks with concerns about catching in relation to this. Trading away a couple catchers (Perez and Nottingham), the regression of Stassi, the disappointment of Conger, the pending FA of Castro in the near future make it an area of a concern.
    I considered Guduan too – I think there are 20 guys who could be considered for this top 10 list legitimately.
    It will be fascinating to see what they actually do.

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  4. First one to admit I don’t keep up with the minors guys anywhere on par with Bill or Pro – but some people probably need to realize you are working with a wall street slinger not your local banker in Luhnow. He sees value in all, or at least wants that perception. He doesn’t simply DFA guys like Grossman and Carter and Conger. Some may want that to happen, but reality is reality. Is Grossman ever going to make a contribution at the major league level, probably not, but do the Astros want the rest of the league knowing that?

    Alot of your list I doubt they protect. Someone like Hernandez isn’t likely to be taken because teams are not going to want to carry him on their active roster all year.

    I think we lose Sclafani. He seems to be that one guy out there that performed well at AAA, can play multiple positions, and would look most attractive to a team that can nab him for basically free, bring him to camp, and make a decision. Guduan maybe attractive to a team that can hide him somewhere, but that’s a hard decision for any team trying to build a bullpen today. I think most of the list of 10 are safe though as teams are not going to want to carry them the entire year on the roster.

    Luhnow definitely has to look around the league at needs though, and be wary of a team that might be willing to take a 24 year old catcher that spent the second half of the year at AAA performing moderately well. He has as much work figuring out the needs of other teams than he does figuring out his own to prepare for this draft.

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    • Steven, just to add. I was driving in Dallas area last week. The sports talk was about how glad the team would be if Gallardo turned down the QO. The reason, the Rangers have tons of commitments in salaries for 2016 and more years.

      Last year, the Rangers took a flier on DDJ. But he looks good now because Leonys Martin turned to rubble this year. So they may need to dump his $4.75 Million.

      Somebody will be unprotected. Then the question becomes does any other team(s) have a need for that position.

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  5. I look at my team and the people running it and I don’t always agree with what they do and they don’t always seem to agree with what I want them to do. So I think the marriage between the Astros and me is running pretty smoothly. I love them despite their faults, and they love me as if I didn’t have any. Now, I have an idea as to how they should handle our youngsters and I hope we can reach an agreement as to the ones who should stick around and the ones we should send to camp for the next few summers permanently. I’m sure we’ll keep it going nicely. Please pass the potatoes.

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  6. There is a little bit of art and a whole lot of luck in dealing with the Rule 5 players. Are teams looking for young talented unprovens? Are they looking for an older player trapped by circumstances?
    The Astros could lose no players. They could lose 3. They could lose 3 and get 2 of them back.
    I’m guessing they will protect 3 of the players above and risk the rest. I’d like to see them protect more but don’t think they will.

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  8. I “feel” the front office will protect three of the young pitchers, Musgrove, Gustave, and Paulino. I base this on absolutely nothing but my own slight observation of the push to continue to pursue a pitcher of any kind during the off season. Since Rasmus has resigned, there has been no news of the club aggressively seeking a bat anywhere. So, by protecting these pitchers, the club is moving to keep its stash of possible, future closing and starting pitchers intact.

    I can also see Devinski and Hauschild being added to the protected list. I do not see them coming to camp, though, with any serious chances of making the club.

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  9. One other tricky spot is do the Astros fill to only 39 men (“I say NO”) and then select a Rule 5 from another team. So does another team have a extra “ready” MLBer that the FO wants to pick.

    Or work a trade for a Rule 5 pick with another team for a prospect. (This one I give a MAYBE if there is a hot prospect to be had in the lower levels.)

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    • We will not pick at the top, so I doubt Luhnow would risk exposing another player just for that chance. He may leave guys exposed with an open slot to more easily make trades which bring MLB player(s) to Houston, though.

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  10. So, of all the Astros’s batters playing in winter ball, who’s the leader in hits, doubles HRs, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, BBs, HBPs? Tyler White

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    • I think you are right Devin – playing in Independent leagues and the Mexican league in 2011 and 2012 did not count and his click did not start until he joined the mlb minor league system in2013. Thanks for pointing that out.

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      • Dan, my only theory that fits is that Apple and Google knew that the majority of their userbase were teenagers with questionable writing/reading skills and implemented their auto-corrects in a manner to level the playing field. I assure you all that I am not as dumb as my grammar mistakes here imply.

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      • Absolutely Devin. It is just like using MS Word where the program seems to know better than I do on words and formatting

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    • Am I being cheap if I say that I’d rather see if AJ Reed can give me 20 HR and 80 RBIs at league minimum rather than give Freeman $20.5 million next season (and still owe him about $86 million over the next 4 years?)
      He is a solid hitter but not worth that in my opinion.

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      • Possibly, but Reed is an unknown while Freeman is a gold-glove caliber 1B who we know will give us an OBP north of .350 and an OPS north of .800 with 20-30 HRs and near 100 RBIs, depending on where he bats in the lineup. I’m fine if the Astros decide to continue with Reed being our 1B of the future, but he will not be the defender at 1B that Freeman is and we don’t know if he becomes the next superstar or the next Jon Singleton. We definitely know what we will get from Freeman and we would have him locked up through his prime years. Finally, Freeman is only getting $12.5M next year. His salary bumps up in 2017.

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      • My booboo – I mis-remembered, I mean misread Freeman’s contract – yes he is only $12.5 million next season but bumps up in a hurry after that. Are the Braves possibly worried about him injury-wise since he only played in a Dexter Fowler-esque 118 games last season.

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      • Dan, That $86mill is for the the most productive years of his career and those years match up with the years 2016-2021, which are supposed to be the juggernaut years for the Astros. Freeman is to first base, what Altuve is to second base and is only a year older.
        I’m the guy who wants Reed on 1B right now and have been saying so for weeks. But Freeman is a young All-star and if I had a choice I would go with him, but I’m not willing to put Reed and Musgrove and VV and Valbuena all in the deal. I think Musgrove could be a major league starter for years for the Astros. and I want to keep him.

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      • I was just listening to MLB Network Radio this morning and they were talking with a beat writer for the Atlanta J-C. He mentioned that he doesn’t see any team willing to take on Freeman’s contract due to his wrist injury. He thinks that will scare off teams. I wasn’t aware of his injury and, in light of this news, I definitely would not give up the farm for him. Those wrist injuries can linger and be problematic for several years. A hitter’s wrist are very important to his power and line drive ability. Let’s stay the course with A.J. Reed.

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  13. I was going to point out that Kimbrel was traded to the Red Sox for 4 prospects – old pro can probably tell us more about the 4 but they seemed to be good but not killer prospects, certainly no one who would have been in the majors this coming season.

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    • You have to remember that three of our top 4 prospects were drafted this year and the fourth is Appel. The strength of our system lies with the number of prospects who rank as C+ to B+ prospects. How many organizations have a Duffy, a Kemmer and a Singleton in the high minors and aren’t even top 30 prospects? How many organizations actually have five pitchers in their top 15 prospects who might be their starting five pitchers in AAA?
      How many teams have a guy who is probably the best hitter in their entire minor league organization as their #30 prospect and he has already hit over .360 in AAA and still might not make the club in April?
      Boston had an overrated system in my opinion because a bunch of their top 20 prospects just flat had lousy years.
      I think the Kimbrel trade was good for Boston because they got one of the best closers in baseball, don’t have to bat an eye about his salary because they have money and did not give up as much for Kimbrel as we gave up for Gomez and Fiers.

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  14. We have to remember that the Astros know so much more about their players than we do. Trying to figure things out without inside info is almost impossible.
    Why is Cruz still on the 40-man after two years and never being called up.
    Has straily shown them something we don’t know about?
    Is Wojo or Buchanan or Hoes much more highly thought of by the Astros than we realize?
    It’s the 16th of November and a lot of our questions will be answered in four day. Finding out how the Astros regard their current 40-man players also will tell us something about the prospects.

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    • The oldest player currently on the Fresno roster is James Hoyt at 28. Houston cut ties with all of the ones that were older as far as I can tell. I was looking at other minor league teams and was so surprised to see so many players that are in their mid to late 30’s. Houston has young and good minor league players. “Upward mobile” would be the description as opposed to “just hanging on.”

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      • 5 years ago it was the complete opposite for the Astros. I moved to Round Rock in 2010, which was the last year the Express was the Astros AAA franchise. The 2010 Express was littered with guys in their 30s who were just hanging on to play baseball. I definitely like how Astros management has turned this around in such a short time.

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      • Tim – I lived in Round Rock for 25+ years, including when the Express started out. I was one of their first season ticket holders. But since the became a Rangers farm, I’ve attended 2 games – both to watch players I coached when they were kids.

        Sorry – this message is in the wrong place.

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  15. That is a big shift AC45 – it has seemed for quite a while that the upper tier of the Astros minors was dominated by older AAAA type players and hanger-ons.
    Old pro – the Kimbrel trade does bring into question again Luhnow’s trading ability. When he does trade prospects is he getting the most worth out of them.

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    • That’s a fair question, but I’m not sure we can answer it at this time. When the Gattis trade was made most were livid on how much the Astros gave up to get him and Hoyt. Well, now it seems the Astros got the 2 best players in that trade, despite Gattis putting up a Blutarski 0.0 WAR. Sure, Folty and Ruiz could turn it around and still be decent major league players, but as it stands today, the Astros won that trade. Also, when the Gomez trade was made most were livid on the prospects we gave up. I won’t declare the Astros winners in that trade now because Gomez was hurt for the most of the time we have had him, but it’s too early to evaluate the impact the players the Astros traded will have with Milwaukee. We do know Fiers threw a no-hitter for the Astros and that, when healthy, Gomez is a gold-glove CFer with 25+ HR power. We will also get a supplemental draft pick if he does not return to the Astros in 2017.

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      • Tim, It sure makes you wonder about trades when we have gotten zero WAR from Gattis and Hoyt has never pitched for us yet and we feel like they are the two best players in that deal. Funny thing is, I feel the same way.
        And I wasn’t saying the Astros didn’t get the best of the Brewers in the Gomez trade. I was saying I thought we gave up better players to the Brewers than Boston did to get Kimbrel.

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      • OP,

        I wasn’t referring to your comment when I mentioned the Gomez trade. I’m sorry for any confusion as I know my posts can be viewed as a conflict with others. I was referring to the comments made right after the trade happened.

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  16. We’re already entering the 2016 with a set outfield. Compared to November of 2014, we’re way ahead a year later. I’d like to see first base resolved before opening day 2016. As I said last week, I think Reed might turn out to be a better hitter than Freeman, but that is a might. I’d be willing to absorb the blow to our minor league system in order to have Freeman in our opening day lineup. He’s pretty much a guaranteed entity offensively, and much stronger than Reed might ever be defensively.

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  17. Reasons for the Astros not to protect some players from the Rule 5:
    -They might not get picked anyway.
    -If they did get picked, they might not stay on the roster for a full year anyway.
    -They might not be as valuable as players who are on the 40-man already.
    -If the Astros trade Gattis or Carter or Marwin or Singleton or Grossman or Hoes or Wojo or Lowrie or Feldman or any number of players on the 40-man currently, sometime this offseason, they stand to get a player that they value by choice and that would replenish anyone we might lose in Rule 5. If they trade some of their players, they are going to get returns and there needs to be room for those players.

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  18. Tyler White got his 8th double and 4th HR of the offseason league yesterday. He has 16 BB and 18 Ks in 23 games. That 1 caught stealing sends up a red flag for me though!

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  19. What about Ken Giles of the Phillies? Man, he is young and has almost no mileage on that arm. Won’t be near as expensive as Chapman. Can he be had without draining the farm? What we have to give up for him?

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    • I have heard, because of team control, he will cost as much, if not more than Chapman. I love Giles as an option, especially if we can get him for less than what the Reds want for Chapman.

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  21. I thought this was an interesting but frustrating topic to tackle. Like old pro is saying above there are a lot of reasons that players may not get picked in the Rule 5. A few additional thoughts:
    – There is always a good chance that the players taken will not be the ones who had the best years in 2014.
    – A team may take a flyer on a player who hits the right metrics for them – the 99 mph fastball, the great OBP, the speed demon and that person may not be on your list
    – They may make a judgment on age
    – They may make a decision based on position
    – They may not want a decent player who is mlb ready\

    I guess we will see.

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    • Yes indeed! Bobby was a super scout……it’s a shame this organization let him go.
      I have no doubt Nance, that Keuchel will win the AL Cy Young.

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  26. My observation is that a lot of the “dead weighters” are players Jeff traded for when we were dumping any and almost all major leaguers and tanking” for high draft position. Did he ever really see value in them, or were they just part of the “process”? Wish the Cardinals would tell the rest of us what they learned in the hacks…

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    • Wow1 Watched the video and when he was going over the lineup for next year, I noticed the names that were mentioned and the names that weren’t. I noticed he named five guys in the OF and he named our starters and Appel and Velasquez as being in the mix,
      But what I noticed most was the names he didn’t mention.

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      • Watched it too — thanks to rj. He also said, “We may have to give up prospects again this year, we’ll see.” Mr. Luhnow, can I vote ‘no’ on that one?

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      • I’m not opposed to trading prospects, but just opposed to trading certain prospects. We have some SP depth so if they can find major league talent for guys like Feliz or VV I am open to it.

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  28. No team makes it through without injuries. Even if Tucker starts at AAA, you have to expect he will get recalled at some point to fill in. As for JFSF, where does he stand on options?

    What starters were not mentioned other than Carter? I was happy to hear White’s name dropped in there. Kazmir isn’t under team control anymore.

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    • He didn’t mention Gattis either. Considering he mentioned Reed and White as options and didn’t mention Carter or Gattis, for me, is a positive. The 2 players I want replaced in our lineup next year are Carter and Gattis. I’m fine with them giving Reed and White the opportunity to replace them, but I’m also fine if they go with a 1-year stop gap, like Justin Morneau. My big takeaway was not mentioning Carter and Gattis for next year. Maybe I am reading too much into it and we will find out in April, but I liked what I heard from Luhnow.

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    • I just thought it was interesting that he named five outfielders, four infielders, Reed and White and Appel and VV and did not mention Gattis or Carter.

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  29. Just to show you that anyone can have a bad day playing baseball, Tyler White was 0 for 7 in a fifteen inning loss yesterday batting in the #3 spot and being the DH.

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  30. Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette just had a 15 minute discussion on how the Astros are the perfect trade partner with Atlanta for Freddie Freeman. Both agreed they would trade Reed and Appel for FF in a heartbeat. They would even add in an outlier like Kemp, Davis or Fischer.

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    • I would hate for the trade to end like that. All five of the Astros mentioned are not rule 5 eligible. I would make the Braves take somebody off our hands we need to free up for money and roster spot. Giving up three top prospects, taking on money, not ridding ourselves of any of our garbage, and still facing the loss of rule 5 guys is a lot to swallow, even for Freeman. I’d do everything I could to make Singleton or Carter part of that trade, instead of the third top prospect, or at least, in addition to the three prospects.

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      • Absolutely. I’m guessing Atlanta would take Singleton over Carter since they are rebuilding, but I would include an extra rule 5 eligible player if it would close the deal. They also discussed Freeman’s salary and made some good points about the increasing revenue in baseball and players like Upton and Chris Davis will be getting over $20M/year and Freeman is better than those 2 players. Salaries are going up and if you can get a player of Freeman’s ability locked in for 6 years at $20M each it’s a good deal in this market.

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      • Tim, do you really think this is a good trade for Atlanta? They are getting their 1B of the future in Reed, so they’d never take Singleton, too. And nine of their top ten prospects are pitchers, so, though Appel is a top prospect, why are they settling for another pitcher when they need young position players? Their only top 10 prospect who isn’t a pitcher is an 18 year old SS. I think I’d back off and look at this trade real close and see what I would really need from the Astros to put on the field in 2017 or later, if I’m the Braves.

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      • Both Ferrin and Duquette felt Atlanta would want pitching to go with Reed. I don’t follow the Braves farm system so I don’t know how good their pitching prospects project to be. I know the Astros have some pitching depth in the minors, but I prefer trading hitting over pitching. I really don’t want to trade Musgrove or Martes unless it’s the right deal. Also, Ferrin was real high on Bregman, especially his makeup. He feels the Astros should not trade him.

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      • Freddie Freeman gear is on clearance at the ATL MLB shop. Look, I don’t like this trade idea because Houston gives up two, top 100 prospects for a guy with a big contract and scary injury history. It’s more a matter of feeling like ATL has to trade him…so why give up so much for him?

        I would propose a TCB special as my starting point in prospects given up – Singleton and 3 or 4 guys unlikely to crack it in Houston.

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      • I do have concerns about his injury, but his salary really doesn’t bother me. In today’s market a healthy Freeman is worth more than that.

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  31. Personally, I feel good enough about Reed and White, combined with the established players of Correa, Altuve, Springer, Gomez, Rasmus, Castro and Lowrie to not go for the twenty million a year for Freeman. I think there is enough talent in the seven regulars I named, plus Jake and Preston, to gamble on Reed and White’s hitting ability in the lineup at 1B and DH this year.
    Eliminating Conger’s $1.8 million, Gattis’s $3.4 million, Carter’s $5.6 million and Valbuena’s $5.1 million and substituting Stassi, Reed, White and Duffy saves you almost $14 million dollars that you can use to sign a starting pitcher like Zimmerman. Plus, what you would get in prospects for some of them, more than makes up for losing the #21 draft pick for Zimmerman. Trading Feldman(now that you have Zimmerman) gives you the $8million needed for Keuchel’s arbitration(or extension!)
    What does that leave you?
    1. All of your top prospects, who you can keep or trade a few for a closer.
    2. A lineup of Altuve, Springer, Correa, Rasmus, Gomez, Reed, Lowrie, White, Castro.
    3. A rotation of Keuchel, Zimmerman, McHugh, McCullers and McFiers(With Appel, Musgrove, Feliz, and VV in AAA) that is dynamite!
    4. Marwin, Tucker, Stassi, and Jake on the bench
    5. A payroll close to last year’s payroll instead of a $100 million.
    At the end of the day, I truly believe that Reed and White, as rookies, absorbed into that lineup, will both produce more than the guys they are replacing did last year. and with that rotation and that defense, I go to WAR.

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      • Well, the main part of the bullpen is still there with Gregerson, Harris, Neshek Hoyt, Fields. I would trade Neshek if I could, sign a lefty or two and find another closer to go with Gregerson. That’s right, have two guys who are capable of closing.
        I have seen a lot of Fields and most of the time his curve is not working, which means he is a one-pitch pitcher most of the time. That is scary to me at his age! He’s had three years to find a second pitch and it works only one third of the time. I still think I would trust VV or Feliz more in Field’s role. They are getting better. He appears to be getting older and more expensive and his fastball will be declining.

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      • I like your plan, but I would still like Freeman because of the known production and lengthy team control. This is contingent upon our medical staff feeling comfortable his wrist injury will not be a lingering problem.

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    • I’m on board with this plan, but want clarification on Duffy’s role. Also, trading Fields for a useful prospect or player would appeal to me.

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      • Clarifying Duffy! I would like Duffy at third base but I’m not going to do it. I am sending him to Fresno to DH every day until I need him. I am doing this because I want Marwin on the team, I want Moran at 3B in Fresno and Gregor on 1B in Fresno. I have dumped enough salary to keep Marwin as my super utility guy and I want Jake on my bench because he is great as a fourth outfielder and base runner, I want Tucker as a DH against some righties, a power bat when needed off the bench and an occasional starter in the OF. I want Stassi as my backup catcher, and to make some starts against lefties that make Castro a sure out. I am going after World Series rings and I want guys who I think get me there and I won’t worry about Tucker flourishing anywhere, I want him to help us win and not worry about his feelings.
        According to this plan, I dumped some guys from my team, splurged for Zimmerman, traded Feldman’s arm for Keuchel’s money, got another guy who can close costing money and prospects and am gambling on Reed and White, who I drafted, to do their jobs and give me more big hits. That is why I made these moves.
        I trade Singleton whenever I can for a prospect to get the money to pay a lefty reliever and never look back.
        If somebody gets hurt, I have Villar, Moran, Kemp, and Duffy and Heineman and tons of pitching at AAA.

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    • I don’t think Tucker will ever flourish getting 200 at bats a year. We’d be doing him a disservice by putting him on the back end of the roster. I agree with White at DH and Reed at first, both as full timers. That’s why I’d have Villar in the dugout rather than Tucker. We’re much more versatile that way. Villar can do a whole lot more off the bench. With Tucker, we’d have no other guy in the dugout to steal a base late or run for a White or a Reed besides Marisnick. I’d put Tucker in Fresno, playing everyday, twice a week at first. At some point, he’d be needed.

      But yes! I endorse 99% of what you’ve said 1OP. I’m a happy guy if we go into 2016 without Carter, Gattis, Conger and Valbuena.

      Now for the bullpen, I think we’re going to see significant change there. Too early to figure it out though, but I agree with you on Fields. How long can we wait on the guy?

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  32. According to MLBTR, the Rangers have $466million in guaranteed contracts to 9 players right now, putting them right there with the Angels.

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  33. I just love reading what folks think. Old pro and daveb and astro45 and Devin and Tim and Steven and Becky and Sandy and Diane and Lester and Billy C and Kevin and Nance and Sarge and Brian and Chip and I know I’m missing some. Old pro I wish your plan was put in place – makes a lot of sense to me.

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  35. Hinch came in second…..Banister won for the AL, and Maddon won for the NL.
    That’s pretty cool for Maddon, he’s gotten MVM for two leagues! I think our guys are pretty happy with Hinch……don’t you? I can’t wait until tomorrow to do a happy dance in my kitchen for Keuchel to win the AL Cy Young!!

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  36. it’s 50 degrees and wind is 15-25 mph. Four of us are putting 12 foot sheets of metal roof over the lamb/Goat/chicken pens. Job constraints and pending weather have us doing it at night and I came in to rest my weary bones. We framed the roof out last night. Rough work but it still feels good to be doing something necessary. Two men and two women, and we’re a helluva team. Talk to you guys later.

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  38. The Braves GM said this morning he would rather lose his right arm than trade Freeman. Does that mean he is looking for right handed pitching?

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    • Not me. Too much doubt in that arm. Only 19 starts in the last two seasons. Already arbitration eligible. Won’t sign an extension because he is Boras’s client.
      I expect to get more out of LMJ and Appel than I will from Fernandez, and for a lot less money.

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      • I wonder if the Astros could get Fernandez without including Keuchel or LMJ. A rotation of Keuchel, Fernandez, LMJ, McHugh and Fiers looks very formidable.

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      • I’m with you daveb – I salivate over how much growth a 21 year old who was good last year in a huge leap to the majors will experience.

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    • I’ll be disappointed if the Marlins don’t trade Jose Fernandez for Freddie Freeman, straight up.

      If I’m Houston, I would entertain that proposal. It really would come down to how much value we think Appel will give us, because unless Fernandez goes down again he is better than LMJ. However, I don’t think he will be better enough to sacrifice the cost savings and years of control for LMJ. To clarify, Fernandez probably gives you more WAR over the next two years, but LMJ blows past that total when you add in years 3 or 4. Also, I really like LMJ and don’t want to see him pitching elsewhere.

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      • Actually, Fernandez did go down. He was injured last year and he got injured this year. LMJ had more WAR this year than Jose.
        We can jive around these two all day, but the bottom line is the Astros don’t get better by trading two incredibly young and talented and inexpensive pitchers for a guy who is more expensive, and injury prone.
        Last I looked, LMJ wasn’t a prospect. He’s our number three starter at worst, and he is 22 years old and has no history of injuries. He’s not a prospect, he’s a pretty good major league pitcher and Jose Fernandez finished the year on the DL, again. As far as i’m concerned, Fernandez has as good a chance to end up like Kerry Wood as Kerry Wood did and I’m not trading anyone for that.

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      • He didn’t finish the year on the DL. He didn’t pitch until July this year, but was fantastic. I still wouldn’t do that trade, but he did only get 1.5 WAR off his 11 starts compared to 2.4 WAR from 22 starts by LMJ…so you are right that was less total…

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      • I wouldn’t trade LMJ, but there is no doubt a healthy Fernandez is better than LMJ. LMJ may become a TOR like Fernandez, but right now Fernandez is one of the best pitchers in baseball, when healthy, but that is the concern with him.

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  40. As to trades, right now and going into ST, my only trades would be to eliminate (if possible) the non-producers and attempt to get lower league prospects. Now when we get into the season and the younger kids do not produce, then make some trades for established players. We know who showed they could play last year and those that showed they did not. If there is only one lesson to learn, McCullers, Tucker, Correa, V V, etc. (you could include DDJ if you like) did not embarrass themselves. Each was an improvement on what we had in prior years.

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    • The only problem with that idea, AC, is that if the young guys don’t produce their trade value diminishes. 2 years ago we could have gotten much more for Big Jon than we can today.

      I would probably balk at the inclusion of LMJ, but if I could get Fernandez for Appel, Musgrove and Big Jon I think I would do it.

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  47. I got a Bleacher Report alert that the Braves and Astros were discussing a 5-player mega trade for Freddie Freeman. It didn’t give specifics on the players involved, but they said the discussions ended. Don’t be surprised if the talks start up again down the road.

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  48. Just think…….Keuchel made the rotation at the very end of spring training last year!
    And here he is……..the very first Cy Young Award winner in the AL for the Astros! That guy pitched his a $$ off for the Astros this year, and I don’t think any of us doubted he would not get this award. Even McHugh got a few votes, and that means a lot to Collin, because he was nearly OUT of baseball when Luhnow signed him!
    The Astros were the only team in the AL that had #1 and #2 with 20 wins, and 19 wins! You can bet Mr. McCullers is watching every thing these two guys do. Great end to a great year.

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    • Sandy……I look for the organization to make him a 3-4 yr deal in the $ 40-45 mill range. I would be very surprised to see them low ball him…..I think Crane knows what he has in Keuchel.

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