For Astros, help is just a phone call away

With a bunch of free agents hitting the market over the last few days, there is probably no shortage of possible hole fillers out there to help the Astros improve for 2016.

But that’s not what I’m talking about.

Nope, the phone calls I’m talking about are ones Jeff Luhnow should have on speed dial: Fresno and Corpus Christi.

In case you hadn’t heard, the Astros have the top farm system in baseball. Two champions (Fresno and Greenville), a bunch more playoff teams, and the MiLB Player of the Year in A.J. Reed.

Yep, despite several promotions this year — Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, Preston Tucker, Vincent Velasquez — the cupboard is far from bare. Here are the top prospects that you’ll likely see in Houston next summer.

1. Matt Duffy: Primarily a third baseman — but a guy who took quite a few reps at first base in 2015 — Duffy has been incredibly consistent in the minors, season after season. In 2015, Duffy’s .850 OPS came with 20 HRs, 104 RBIs and just 90 Ks (48 BBs) in 490 ABs. He earned a sip of coffee in Houston and seemed to be no worse at the next level.

2. A.J. Reed: Not to be outdone, Reed led the minors with 34 homers, drove in 127 runs and tallied a 1.044 OPS between Lancaster and Corpus. His 122 Ks (86 BBs) are a bit troubling, since it’s about 25 percent. That said, that much power and a .432 OPS are worth a look.

3. Colin Moran: If Duffy doesn’t work out — or becomes a DH — there’s a better defensive option in Colin Moran. His range is not huge, but he’s got good hands and a good arm. Plus, his .840 OPS with 9 HRs, 67 RBIs in just 366 ABs (injuries have slowed him) from Corpus are fairly impressive, especially since he started slowly due to getting beaned.

4. Joe Musgrove: A mid-90s fastball from this big right hander, Musgrove flew through three levels, topping out in Corpus in 2015. Overall, in 100 innings he posted a 1.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Oh, and 99 Ks with only 8 — EIGHT — walks. Yeah, I’m impressed.

5. Michael Feliz: Yes, he had a cup o’ Joe in Houston, but he’s still a prospect. Feliz approaches 100 on his fastball. His 103 Ks in 111 innings pitched with 32 Ks was pretty good with a 1.02 WHIP and 2.83 ERA. Most of that ERA came from Lancaster, where ERAs tend to rise.

6. Mark Appel: Hey, you remember him, right? His combined 2015 ERA (Corpus and Fresno) was 4.37. His BAA was 2.66, and he had a 1.41 WHIP. But he shows moments of brilliance.

Honorable Mentions: Frances Martes, Derek Fisher, Tony Kemp, Tyler White, Chris Devenski.

 

So, which farmhand do you most want to see?

The Astros will need to bring in a veteran or two. But should that keep them from promoting these kids?

Houston has some talent about ready to burst onto the scene at first and third base. Should they trust those kids — and maybe Jon Singleton gets another short-leash chance — and concentrate on relievers, a starter and maybe an outfielder on the free agent market?

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145 responses to “For Astros, help is just a phone call away”

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  1. I wan to see all of them in Spring Training. Lets see what they can do and if the can do the deal, put ’em on the roster and and let ’em play.

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  2. I’d rather see the baby Astros than mediocre free agents.
    Bring them to ST and let em play. This is why we suffered through a decade of losing. It’s time.

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  3. Luhnow has an obligation to those kids, and to us FANS to let us see them up with the big club. Those guys have worked their entire lives to get where they are, and have reached the level they are currently playing. We fans have had to endure the last 4-5 yrs of being the laughing stock of the MLB. NOW it’s finally our turn to reap the wealth that we have stocked our farm with!! I just hope Luhnow trusts the talent we have…..and allows them to take their place with this club. It’s past time.

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    • It is ironic, the past three to five years the big club had youngsters that were not good yet they were still playing and learning on the job. We clamored for established big leaguers. Forward to today and we are clamoring for youngsters to play and to get rid of the big leaguers. We now see the youngsters are better than their earlier counterparts.

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  4. Tyler White is at the top of the list for me. I’m surprised he’s not closer to the top of yours. I want to see him DH.
    I don’t have a problem with them bringing in a veteran or two, as long as they trade about five of them already here to make room for the young guys.
    As far as Singleton is concerned, he was in the lineup next to White hitting against the exact same pitchers for half a season and White hit .362 and Singleton hit .254. That is comparing apples to apples with Singleton having the advantage over White facing many more righties than lefties and White just blew Singleton away. Trade Singleton.
    If we trade the guys who strike out and are going to cost a lot of money, play White and Reed from day one, we have the money to get a couple of needed veteran players to make a run at the World series and change this team from a strikeout team to a hitting team.
    I realize that White, Reed, and Kemp are not rule 5 eligible and won’t be added until they are ready to start the year in our lineup and that we have until April 1st to trade the strikeout kings, so I’m willing to wait patiently to see it happen in early April.
    I would not be surprised to see Joe Musgrove pitching for the Astros this season.
    But, to be truthful, Colin Moran hitting over .300 with an above average OBP and SLG in AAA would probably be the most exciting thing for the long term future of this team. I’m saying it would be Blue Bell Ice Cream type greatness for the Astros.
    Thanks for the fresh blog, guys!

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  5. I agree with everyone here — Play the kids. I’m eager to see them all in spring training. I’m hoping Musgrove can make our rotation. I also am ready to trade Singleton and Carter. I hope that Luhnow will not trade some of these mentioned prospects. I also hope that he can find a new home for Conger.

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  6. White is also on the top of my list. I think he easily replaces Gattis. What a luxury it would be to have a DH that can get on base. And I’m not worried about losing the RBI’s that Gattis produced. White had 99 in a 116 games. Alas, with Luhnow making the decisions, I think Gattis still starts the season with us.

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  7. My thinking (for whatever it’s worth) is that unless there is a great deal out there for us in the free agent market or trading for an established performer there is no reason to not let these young guys try to make the team. Maybe I’m nuts but I would sacrifice not making the playoffs in 2016 in favor of having these young guys get a shot. If we’re in contention at the trade deadline and need a piece we can fill it in. I think we’re so close to being in contention for the next 5 years that I can smell it. Stay the course and do not trade away the prospects we’ve assembled or spend ridiculous dollars for a short term FA rental.
    Trade (if possible) Valbuena, Lowrie, Villar, Neshek, Oberholtzer, Straily, peacock, Wojo, Deduno. Carter, Singleton, Conger, Gattis.

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    • Right now, its all about subtraction. If we can get rid of the above mentioned vets and maybe add an arm or two to the pen, this team will be on its way to becoming a consistent contender.

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    • We can trade those players and, if we’re lucky, we might get some low to mid-level prospects. Most of those players you want to trade have limited trade value. I’m not saying we should trade away our best prospects, but I’m open to trading away some that are rated between 15-30 in our system if it nets the Astros an established, good veteran at a position of need. I’m also open to trading players like Kemp or Bregman, who are blocked, but it needs to be for someone that can help us win now. Everyone lambasted the Gattis trade primarily because of the ‘prospects’ we gave up. They can still turn into decent major league players, but right now none of the players the Astros traded appear to be on track for productive major league careers. It looks like the Astros got the 2 best players in that trade, despite Gattis’ 0.0 WAR this year.

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  8. Don’t sleep on JD Davis. He also Ks a lot, but had a huge hot streak to finish the year at Lancaster and likely starts at 3B for CC. He has a big arm, but may not stick there due to defensive lapses. Putting all that aside, last ST when he stepped into the boxYou could see he was the wolf and the pitcher the sheep.

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    • What concerns me about Davis is that he has yet to face even AA pitching and has a 26%+ K rate. If he had that kind of K rate while hitting low minors pitching at a rate well above .300 I wouldn’t be so cautious about his prospects. But he has not been able to break out with the hits so right now he is behind Moran for sure.

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  9. Is it ST yet ? I hope the kids show well. Love to see young current Astros at 3rd, 1st and DH. I’m hoping we cant maybe get the closer!

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  10. Brian T – I would love to see AJ Reed at 1B next season. We have had a guy striking out a lot more than Reed without that production. I would love to have a middle of the order guy who hits a lot closer to .300 than .200.

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  11. Those 122 K’s do not bother me when you see the 86 walks and the .432 OBP and the big OPS. As a comparison, Berkman bested .432 only once during his minor league career, and that was over 31 games when he was 24 years old.

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  12. One thing I would point Astros to look at in building their bullpen next year is that Will Harris had an insanely low BABIP in 2015 of .192. Paybacks from Lady Luck can be real rough and can catch a team off guard if they aren’t prepared with their depth. I’m just sayin’. Bullpens can be volatile.

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  13. Yes, his 8th inning in game four illustrates your point 1OP. He wasn’t hit real hard, but balls found holes. It was a bad time for things to even out a bit. And we really should not e counting on another 0.901 WHIP from him either.

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  15. I think I go into spring training giving Duffy (3B), Reed (1B-DH), White (1B-DH), Musgrove (RP) and Feliz (RP) every opportunity to win spots on the team.

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  16. I bet a friend of mine at my favorite watering hole a beer that Rasmus takes the QO Luhnow offered last week. I know Luhnow is hoping he won’t take it, but with Rasmus…..you never know LOL!!!!

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    • He might accept it, but if he does he prolongs free agency 1 more year and he will be 30, turning 31 during the 2017 season. I still think he rejects it based upon his great postseason performance. This may be his best chance for a decent, multi-year contract. The Mets have expressed interest in him and since they had one of the best records in baseball last year and will get a supplemental draft pick once Murphy signs with another team they won’t suffer much from signing Rasmus.

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  17. There is an interesting game going on in baseball right now. A major league team posted $12.5 mil for the rights to negotiate with Korean star 1B Byung-ho-Park. Nobody has admitted doing it but all day the media have played, Let’s Find out by Elimination. So far, 22 teams have been eliminated and the Astros are listed as one of the eight teams that have said nothing. The game is moving very fast.

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    • I hope not……we’ve already HAD a guy on this team who couldn’t communicate with out a interpreter. Besides…..aren’t we already paying a 1st baseman a few million that’s not really in the plans for this team going into next year?? I want to see one of our OWN guys at 1st base next year!! I hope I didn’t offend you.

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    • He also seems to be reporting that one of Milwaukee, ChiCubs, Reds, or Twins posted the bid. MIL kind of makes sense…but the other three do not. If MIL does win then it puts Adam Lind on the market … which should interest you.

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      • I couldn’t care less about Lind. My first baseman was drafted by the Astros in the second round, was the MILB Offensive Player of the Year and can be had by moving him From the Corpus Christi roster to the Astros roster and he will cost $510,000 for the entire year.

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      • You really believe he has a chance to break camp with Houston? Lind is one the last year of his deal after MIL picked up the option and posted a .277 / .360 / .460 slash line last year in MLB.

        Reed was a slow starter at QC and Lancaster. If I’m looking to win games, I bring Lind to town and part ways with Valbuena, Carter, and Gattis. If the asking price is too steep, I pass and try out White and/or Duffy…but Lind is a LH bat that immediately helps our lineup.

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      • If I wanted to spend $100 million on payroll Lind would be fine. But I don’t want a 33 year old 1B for $8 million for 1 yr. and give up prospects to get him. I need a closer and a left fielder who will fit into my lineup without the strikeouts and get on base.
        I have the best minor league 1B prospect and I need a first baseman. I’ve been rebuilding for years to get to this moment. Reed is part of my rebuild. I’ve waited four years for my guys to make a difference and now is my chance to make my plan work. If I’m Luhnow, I’m going with Reed at 1B and White/Tucker at DH, trading my K guys for more minor league prospects and spending my money saved on a big arm for my bullpen and an outfielder who will serve me well for a couple or three years until Kemmer or somebody else is ready.
        My goal is to be next year’s Royals and I won’t get there with the guys I had last year, especially with them being a year older and costing me $20 million more than they did last year.
        I have Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, Fiers and Feldman. I have Appel, Musgrove, Velasquez, Feliz, and Ober starting in AAA. I have the POY in AA moving to AAA in the OF. I have the MILB Fan POY ready in AAA. I have the Grizzlies POY ready at 3B. I have Lowrie, I have Marwin. I have Jake. and I have AJ Reed who won the same award Springer did two years ago. I have the ROY at SS and a finalist for Gold Glove at 2B, and probably the Cy Young Award winner in his 1st year of Arbitration.
        I will spend on what I need and get rid of what I don’t need, which is players with a history of production that conflicts with my vision.

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      • It’s a non-issue given MN won the posting, but how does Lind’s production history conflict with your vision? $8 million for a guy who posted the following four seasons of OBP is a bargain:
        .314 in 91 games
        .357 in 143 games
        .381 in 96 games
        .360 in 149 games

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      • But I am not willing to pay $8 million and prospects for Lind’s Age 34 year based on his past production, even if it is good. I am willing to spend $510,000 for what my front office projects AJ Reed will give me in his AGE 23 year. That is what I planned four years ago for year five of my rebuild.
        And I will use the difference in those two salaries to fill a hole I know is still there: Closer or LF.
        I was going to build through the draft and every chance I get I want a player I drafted to fill a position and give me a young player with a huge upside and a low salary to build my team on So far I have done it with Altuve, Springer, Keuchel McCullers, Correa and I want it to continue with Reed and Tucker and White and Kemp and all the rest. I’m at the crossroads of my five year plan and I have a chance to replace one of my recurring failures at first base with either Reed or an expensive older guy. I choose my guy. And I have the same situation at DH. I am lucky that both of my young guys have shown BA, OBP, and Power and one hits from the left side and one from the right side.

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      • I will give my $.02 worth on this issue. If Lind was a free agent and we could sign him for 1 year at $8M then, yes, I would do it. However, considering it would also cost us some prospects to obtain him I will pass. I would like Reed to start the year at Fresno and I don’t want to see Carter there. My guess is Carter is gone and Valbuena will platoon with someone at 1B until Reed proves he is ready, which means hitting well at the highest minor league level.

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      • I’ll take any improvement I can get. I want White/Reed to be the answers. Take away April and the Astros don’t make the playoffs. Whichever guy you plug in better bring some OBP or all those cost savings came for nothing.

        Preston Tucker had a .363 milb OBP for his career, but only .297 last year for Houston. I think he raises it in 2016. I don’t think you can count on all promotions to hit the ground like Correa and LMJ did.

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  20. I agree with Sandy, Becky and those who say, “How you gonna keep ’em down on the farm?” Can’t tell you how often last spring I heard around my office, “Bring up Correa” (followed by a batting stance and a simulated swing a la Johnny Carson, only not golf). And I hope Rasmus stays.

    And I enjoy you-all’s writings, though I’m not able to post much. 🙂

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  21. Question…Can Rasmus talk to other clubs before the QO expires or does he have to decline it before he can talk to other clubs? Might make a difference.

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    • I didn’t think he was that bad. TeeHee
      He said he was sent to the AFL to work on his defense at 1B. He was there for about three weeks including practices. Then Hinch showed up to look at the Astros players in the AFL. Then Reed was shut down. You have to figure that between Linares’s report on Reed and Hinch’s observations, the Astros know enough about Reed right now to determine if he is ready or not and that is why he is shut down.
      Time to give him his vacation and then turn body fat weight into muscle weight

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  24. i think the offer to erasmus was strictly to get the draft pick when he signs elsewhere. kevin i think they shut him down so he didn’t get over worked this year and to prepare for spring training. some diet and weight management issues will be worked on before ST.

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  25. Jim Crane said the Astros were never in the bidding for that Korean player. The Twins won the bid. Crane also said that efore the 2017 season Talk Hill will be removed. The Astros, and Nationals are in Florida breaking ground for their new spring training facility today. Frankly…..I’m glad we didn’t get the Korean kid, and I have no idea if A. J. Reed is gonna win the job at first, or if ANYBODY besides Carter will be manning that spot. What I do know, is that we have SEVERAL guys who could take that spot in the lineup, and we need to see if we’ve got a diamond that’s been over looked. My take only…..⚾

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  26. Operator . . . oh, won’t you help me place this call.
    You see the numbers from first base were uninspiring.
    Help’s not that far away,
    heck, its down in Triple A,
    where a guy hit .360 without perspiring.

    Isn’t that the way they say it goes? We need some OBP,
    so what’s Tyler’s number, it’s time to dial it,
    let’s pay to get that scruffy mustache styled, and to show
    we’re lettin’ Carter go, we hope he takes it well,
    we can’t endure his K’s – especially for 4 Mill,
    looks like he just wasn’t real. So it’s time to make a deal.

    Operator . . . and could you place another call?
    ’cause you know our DH’s WAR was horrid.
    He had a funky beard;
    and his stance was ugly weird,
    and we need a guy who keeps a pace of torrid!

    Isn’t that the way this business goes? We’ve gotta think ahead,
    the Angels and Rangers are movin’ forward,
    and our fans have suffered just too much torture, you know,
    we’re lettin’ Gattis go, we’re sayin’ fare-thee-well,
    we need more hit-and-run and crooked-inning help,
    like A.J. Reed – the guy could be just what we need!

    So operator . . . please don’t forget about these calls.
    I don’t care if we get a ballbag for Chris and Evan.
    We thank them for their time,
    but we’re gonna dump them in their prime,
    on someone else’s dime . . . .

    Isn’t that the way they say it goes? We saw how KC plays,
    and swingin’ for fences just made us bluesy,
    we’re no longer beggars so let’s get choosy, and let go
    of all who underwhelm, whose offense never gells,
    who flail like old windmills, and make our fans pop pills,
    Enough of that is what we’ve seen. We want young blood in two-sixteen!

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  27. Matt Duffy will be 27 by opening day. I’ve never seen him play 3B, but I’ve never read anything that suggests he is gold glove caliber. I’m a little surprised that he would be number 1 on your list. I doubt he even makes this team out of ST.

    I am excited about Reed. I would start him on day 1. I would probably enter ST with White on my 40 man and in contention for a spot. I was fine with Gattis when he was cheap, but that won’t be the case anymore after 27 dingers and 88 rbi’s, White may come close to that in the rbi department while striking out a lot less. I think the Astros go with Gattis though.

    I don’t think the Astros are going to be as rookie happy as many of you hope. I really think Rasmus will be back, I don’t think they extended the QO to make sure they get a draft pick, that’s a big gamble at 16 mil. They must feel like money wise they can take that gamble in case he accepts. He might get a long term deal somewhere else, but I doubt its at 16 mil a year, so his agent might very well tell him accept this and lets roll the dice again next year.

    This is all different than what I would do, I wouldn’t have extended the offer, I would have already shuttled Carter and Gattis off, I would add Kemp, White, and Reed all to the 40 man and give them legit shots out ST to win jobs. Something tells me that the Astros aren’t as convinced about Kemp and White as Chipland though.

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    • It is natural for fans of the team – especially those of us who have suffered through an inferior on field product for many years – to hope that the F.O. will allow the young guys who have been called the best minor league system to have the first shot next year. But it is pretty clear that our F.O. has a pretty bad man-crush on guys like Carter, Gattis, Valbuena, and Conger – i.e. the main guys who are blocking the MiLB guys that this post is talking about. This F.O. has consistently proven it puts far and away more stock in declining, injured, over-hyped, and under-performing veterans than it does in younger, high-end ‘prospects’. Best minor league system in the game? Pshaw. To our F.O. the kids who won those MiLB division titles and trophies are all just ‘prospects’ – also known as ‘trade fodder’ – to our F.O.

      So, while we all know deep down that with this F.O. the odds are that next April will find Chris Carter still at 1B, Valbuena and Lowrie still platooning at 3B, Gattis still getting 99.9 % of the starts at DH, and Conger still being the back-up catcher, it is winter, and we can daydream. We also know deep down that our F.O.’s most likely move this off-season will be to trade some of our favorite ‘prospects’ for a high-priced LF and another starting pitcher. Yeah, we know we’ll probably hear that Kemp, Devenski, and Musgrove, Davis, Fisher, Heineman, Bostick, etc. will be gone for another Carlos Gomez/Scott Kazmir type. But we play pretend and what if, and think ‘just maybe.’

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      • Mr.Bill I do hope you’re wrong about seeing the same strike out kings on this club next year….truly I do. I don’t think my blood pressure medicine can take another year of watching the bases loaded, and not getting one, single run.

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      • Bill I actually think the Astros and Rasmus are going to come to terms on a 3 year deal. It’s going to break my heart, I am not a fan of guys that strikeout 33% of the time, but I don’t think they feel like they have any other options internally. Personally, I say hand it to Tucker, and live with the defense, and use Marisnick to keep him on the bench against lefties – or defensive/pinch run replacement. To do that though the Astros will either have to carry 5 OF’ers – meaning Lowrie and MarGo won’t both be here – or let go of Gattis, and again, I reference the stock trader, he isn’t moving Gattis unless he sees return.

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      • Yes, Mr. Bill, our front office is an embarrassment to baseball. Luhnow has no idea how to build a winner and he should be dismissed immediately for the debacle he has created in Houston along with the inept effort in rebuilding the farm system. Pshaw!

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      • Bill, I think it is relevant that Hinch said in an interview I read that the Astros have to get more guys who can hit for average. I almost flipped when I read it because it was so out of character for anyone in Astros management to lay that kind of information out there.
        If that is a reflection of thinking by the Astros, it would start with not signing Rasmus as the first move and the rest of it will take months to unfold a step at a time until that kind of team takes the field near the end of spring training.
        The way the offseason unfolds in baseball, free agency usually comes first, where you end up getting a few players before you start getting rid of others through trades, non tenders and moves at and after the winter meetings in December and the arbitration process in January.
        If April 1st comes around and the Astros are constructed the same way they were in April of 2015 with all swingers and few hitters, I’ll know it’s time for me to find a new hobby, because I’ll know Luhnow was feeding all of us a line of BS for years.

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      • Funny you should bring that up, Tim. Your predictable attempt to scorn a fellow blogger just for spite exactly almost exactly echoes what was being said about the Astros current F.O. after the rapid parade of scandals involving Brady Aiken, Jacob Nix, Ryan Vogelsong, and “Ground Control”. Have fun.

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      • Yep, they’re an embarrassment, Mr. Bill. Luhnow was nuts to lower that offer to Aiken. There was nothing wrong with him and the Astros organization continues to sink further into the abyss. Have fun, pal.

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      • Tim, please listen to yourself. No one but you has said our F.O. was an ’embarrassment to baseball’ or that the organization is ‘sinking into an abyss’. Others come to this blog to have some fun and talk about our Astros. You have for some reason chosen to become the blog Nazi, attacking anyone who in jest makes a comment that you do not consider politically correct. When I say have fun, I mean ‘lighten up a little’. This is not a debate forum.

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      • Mr. Bill,

        I think it is that you are just to touchy and sensitive to those that disagree with you. I laughed a few blogs ago when you made that comment stating we shouldn’t determine others are right or wrong. OP has indicated to several others that he agrees with their comment or says their comment is accurate, but when he replied to one of my comments stating he felt I was right you got into panic mode and wrote this lengthy, and comical, response that we shouldn’t be calling comments right or wrong. Man, you quickly had to put an end to someone indicating I was right. I didn’t realize you found my comments so threatening until that response. As I have stated before if my replies bother you then that is more of a ‘you’ problem. I will continue to give my opinions whether they are in agreement with those on here or not. My goal isn’t to play all nice and warm with everyone. At times I will agree and other times I will disagree. It is what it is, my friend.

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    • I feel confident Luhnow offered Rasmus the QO as protection in case he leaves. He may be glad to have him back for one year, but I doubt he wants to sign Rasmus to a multi-year contract.

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  28. And I see no reason that the Astros won’t return Valbuena despite the K’s. The guy didn’t strike out at Carter rates, 21.7%, and that was the highest of his entire career. He is pretty consistent at that 20% mark, has power, draws walks, and can handle the position defensively. I was as frustrated by the .224 average as everyone else, and I don’t expect improvement in that department – his career lines, .250-.193-.219-.218-.224. I have no idea how he even fooled some experts into calling him a breakout candidate. In all that though he has managed below .300 OBP only twice – and one of those was at .298.

    He is a temporary fix. If the Astros were serious about fixing 3B they are probably going to have to go outside the organization – but if Valbuena even just repeats his season, he won’t be the reason you make the playoffs, but he won’t be the scapegoat either.

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  29. Steven…..while we respect you thoughts about our top prospects, I truly hope you are *wrong*. If it doesn’t make you so angry that we keep these guys for trade bait it should. ALL of us are tired of seeing some of our top prospects used instead of money, just to get another 30 something guy, who USED to be good traded to the Astros. No, we don’t know how the young guys will work out, but my money is on letting THEM make that case for themselves. My biggest fear is what Mr. Bill said…..unfortunately we will see the same guys we had last year return for 2016.
    You seem to know a lot more than I do, but we will never know what we have, unless we give them a chance. And…..I don’t think Matt Duffy is a bust.

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    • Matt Duffy just seems like another Matt that we knew, without the defense. He doesn’t have a lot of power, just some. He doesn’t walk a lot, and like most minor leaguers that number will be lower in the majors than it is now. His minor league K rates look pretty similar, if actually just a smidgen worse, than Matty D. Dominguez hit us as a 23 year old prospect. Duffy is probably outside of his developmental adjustment window. Stranger things have happened, but the argument that we won’t know until we give him a chance just completely negates the reason we have a minor league system – sure, some of them perform decently in the minors but turn into superstars, and some perform as superstars in the minors that become meh, but most players continue to follow their tracks.

      Again though, I am not advocating what the Astros are doing. I’ve said its different than what I would do, and that is insert White at DH, Reed at 1B, and give Kemp a shot at LF – I don’t know that he wins it, but a shot. I would bring Valbuena back, because Duffy doesn’t look like a major leaguer to me – at least not a 600 at bat one. Right now, Valbuena is going to outperform Duffy in my opinion. To be honest, I am convinced Duffy will strike out more than Valbuena, probably around 23-24%, and that is just adding to our problem. Bottom line, we have a great system, but Duffy isn’t the cream of the crop of it. Don’t take it as dumping on Duffy, I am sure the young man comes to work with his lunch pail and hard hat, and I love being wrong about those sneaky, pesky underdogs that work hard at their craft, just call me skeptical – and that is why I am 90% sure the Astros bring Valbuena back, and Duffy is the Astros insurance policy at AAA.

      Don’t say prospects though in plural – yes, Duffy is the target this year for me as Marisnick was last year, but for the most part, I love our minor leaguers. I think Reed is a future MVP candidate, and with Correa will usher in the new era of Astros baseball the way Bagwell/Biggio did, but maybe even better. If the Astros are looking for a power arm closer, is Musgrove a possibility? White will be a serviceable major leaguer soon.

      If it makes you feel better though – I don’t think Carter will be back. I would put it at 70/30 if I was a betting man. Until his name is off the roster, it’s a possibility, but I think Luhnow is more like that wall street guy, he doesn’t cut bait, he treats every stock as an individual asset and tries to get the most he can for it. He will probably keep trying to get something for him until the day comes that he figures out no one wants to pay the guy 5 mil in arbitration and finally cuts him by not making an arby offer.

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      • One of Duffy’s stats stands out to me. Over the past three years Duffy has faced other teams top 20 prospects a lot of times. 212 times to be exact.
        His batting average against everybody in those three years is .297, but his batting average against other team’s top 20 prospects is .374.
        His walk % against the best pitchers is 7.5% versus 6.7% overall
        His K rate is only 15.1 % against the top pitchers and 18.1% overall.
        Duffy’s stats against better pitchers shows that he really bears down against the best. He has the ability to perform against top competition. What he will have to do is play like that against everyone. But at least he has shown he can.
        It’s sorta the same thing we see in Stassi. He seems to hit better in the majors than he does in the minors and I noticed it last year. Some guys just gather it all together when it matters.
        Salvador Perez hit only 20 HRs in six minor league seasons, but has 65 HRs in the three years he has been in the majors.
        I’m not sure Duffy is just an insurance policy at AAA. Colin Moran has already been promoted to AAA.
        Coincidently, I noticed that Duffy hit .294 this season at AAA and .375 in his chances with the Astros in September. Those numbers look eerily similar to the ones I was noting above. He had three hits and 3 RBIs in 9 PAs in Houston. I saw him at 3B and he looked like he belonged there. I, too, would like to see a lot more of him defensively, but I do know that the Astros have seen a lot of him there.

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      • Good points on Duffy, they may bode well. They may mean nothing. It’s not a 10 AB sample size, but it’s not a giant one either. I’m not convinced the guy can be any better than Valbuena, so I’ll stick with the devil I know. We do have options to up the average and decrease the strikeouts in other places. I don’t expect an overhaul – the theory of the Royals model is cute, but the Royals are just as likely a three year wonder than trendsetters.

        I did note sometimes guys go outside their lanes from their minor league track. We can all find cases of improvements at the major league level, as well as disappearing. Perez probably isn’t a fair comparison though in that he had just turned 21 on his debut, Duffy will be 27. Most of the time, especially power wise, we’ve seen what guys will be by the time they are 27. If I were to look for a similar track age wise, it might be Edgar Martinez, who didn’t win a starting gig until he was, you got it, 27. Similar power to start too. Obviously Edgar’s hit skills were more refined, very few people have ever been as good at telling a ball from a strike more often.

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  30. The players choice awards were given out this evening. The entire article is on the Astros website. Three of our guys won awards! I won’t spoil it for you….so go look for yourself!!

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  31. Sad, sad news…..Tommy Hanson passed away tonight in Atlanta. He was rushed to te hospital yesterday, and passed away from total organ failure. He was only 29yrs.
    I know every one of you will be thinking of his family tonight. Sooo sad.

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  32. As to the post above, I never understand why a person buys pants or a shirt and then puts them in the closet – never to wear them.

    If a team spends millions on prospects and minor league teams, then why not give them a “short leash” chance to play at the next level. Currently, that is at least ST for the Astros. I know “far away talent” always looks better than “up close talent.” But dang, let them show they topped out at AAA by at least giving them a shot.

    And one example (example only) of why you give a 27 year old a chance, look at Collin McHugh’s stats.

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  33. Was watching the Hot Stove on MLB yesterday and one of the predictions was that if the Astros don’t sign Rasmus they would look at JD Heyword. The other was Chris Davis from Baltimore to the Astros. I didn’t take stock in either but thought I’d pass it along..

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    • I keep getting angrier and angrier at the predictions I see. My assumption is Luhnow is having someone leak misinformation to throw others off his track. Heyward, Davis, Foster, and Murphy are all rumored to be our targets, but none really improve the team and would take up a huge portion of the payroll.

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      • Heyward would improve the team, but he’s not worth the contract he will get. Davis is much better than Chris Carter and will out-perform Reed next year, but again it will take too many years and too much money to sign him. One option I heard for 1B that I actually like us Justin Morneau. He is a contact hitter and should be available on a one year contract. Davis makes no sense as he would block Reed for many years.

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    • OP1, I heard a rumor that the F.O. was seriously entertaining offers to do a blockbuster trade sending you, Brian, me, Becky, and Daveb to the Miami Marlins blog. The Miami fanbase is reportedly looking for some new ideas on how to build a team from the ground up, focusing on the farm rather than the hot stove. Right now it’s just a preliminary rumor of course – but just in case Mrs. Bill and I are pulling out our swimsuits, floaties, and suntan oil! The Astros don’t ever play the Marlins, do they?

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      • Be a shorter trip in for me, but I’m an Astro lifer. Too late for me to cross the line. And I wouldn’t think of leaving Becky behind!

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      • I have a no trade clause in my contract. I’m smart that way. However, that clause can be bought out, for say, an apartment overlooking Lake Atitlan.
        My advice to the Marlin’s fans would be that a little cow poop on your boots on the farm hurts a lot less than a burn from the stove and there won’t be huge medical bills for dirty boots. As a matter of fact, if you farm real well, somebody will clean your boots for you.

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      • Now that is Funny and Tim is voted CEO of this blog . Tim no name calling now you busted my chops over calling Jeffery a bad name, and got a bit condescending and sarcastic with Mr Bill now , were all friends with different opinions

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      • OP1, in the Miami are what they grow on farms is not cows. For Jonathan Singleton’s sake I won’t mention what it is they grow down there, but let’s just Cheech and Chong used to sing songs about it. But you are right, if you farm real well – especially in Miami – there are plenty of folks who will clean your boots for you.

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  36. Big difference for the Astros at the GM meetings this season.
    Last year Brady Aiken and Casey Close had successfully embarrassed the Astros. This year, Aiken’s mom has thrown as many pitches as Aiken has and Close has to wait to see if Luhnow is on the elevator to decide if he should take the stairs.
    Last year, other GMs were trying to figure out whether to talk to Luhnow because of the hacking scandle. This year they can’t wait to get with Luhnow because they know the Astros could be buyers AND sellers. The other GMs are not quite sure what to think of the Cardinals, however.
    This year Luhnow walks in with a winning club, the best minor league players and teams, more money, a certified ace, a top notch SS, an All-star 2B, and the most modern and up to date spring training facility in baseball being built just down the road.
    Luhnow walks into the room as the Mother of all defensive shifts, and the others in the room are following suit with their teams
    Finally, one of the GMs in the dancehall is Luhnow’s protégé and the youngest GM in baseball.
    Yep, this year, when Luhnow walks into the saloon, the piano stops playing, the path to the bar opens up, the bartender says it’s on the house and the hot one dressed in red slowly walks down the stairs.
    Podnah, the Marshall is in the house!

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    • Yeah, but I heard a rumor that the Marshall is in over his head with the barmaid, that the trusty doc has packed up and left town, and that the chief deputy is walking around town with a limp.

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      • The barmaid has a qualifying offer, the doc’s next drink is hiding somewhere in that mustache, and the deputy limps because his name is Dream Weaver and he got run over by a haunted 18-wheeler.

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      • Okay, so now, thanks to 1OP, I have an idea to make money for the franchise – since ticket sales were still lackluster last year even with We need to film a remake of the long-running TV drama ‘Gunsmoke’. Jeff Luhnow could play Marshall Matt Dillon. Anita Sehgal could play Miss Kitty. Larry Dierker could play Chester. Evan Gattis could probably do a very entertaining Festus Haggen. Reid Ryan could play Doc Stone, and Matt Brand could fill in sometimes as Newly O’Brian. Kid Keuchy could play Sam the Bartender, and Carlos Correa could play Burt Reynold’s character Quint Asper. We already have a train set at MMP. We’ll just have to change the name of the Crawford Street Cafe to the Long Branch Saloon.

        Who should we trust to negotiate TV rights with the various networks. Put your hand down, please, Mr. Crane.

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    • Is he the Mother, or Father of defensive switches? I’m wondering how many guys will learn how to beat those shifts. I know we’ll see a resurgence of bunt singles by a few guys that still know how to drop one down..

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  39. Luhnow is indeed the Mother, or Father of advanced shifting. It will be interesting to see how many major league hitters will reinvent the use of the bunt, a lost art that so many guys can’t even execute today.

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    • I guarantee that a player who played at Vanderbilt will know how to bunt. There are places you go to play baseball and places that teach baseball. The bunting problem is not the player’s fault, it’s their coach’s fault. They are the ones who are teaching players that the bunt is no longer relevant. It’s the same thinking as when you hit some homers and have a 6-2 lead in the biggest game of the decade and you have runners on second and third and getting them home isn’t quite as important as celebrating. Little things in baseball are important to win the big games. But if you don’t emphasize the little things, you’ll end up getting beat by the team who does.

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  40. Saw this coming for a few years now, but the organization has cut ties with
    Jio Mier, and he has elected free agency. What a bust that kid was. Took him first in the 2009 draft, and really never made it pass AA. He’s a short stop, so someone will be willing to give him a chance….the M’S come to mind since they have a very good SS but the kid had like 29 errors last season. He makes Villerror look like a gold glover.WWW. MLBtraderumors.com has an article about the Astros off season…..not too much different than what we have been saying.

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    • The Astros took Mier and left Mike Trout sitting there on the platter for the Angels to get. How dumb can an owner be not to have any investment in scouting?
      The scouting report on Mier is hauntingly accurate six years later: “Mier is one of the best high school shortstops available.”

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      • And……..ALL of us knew he was a bust, when he had to repeat rookie ball. I know you’ve said it before, that we keep guys like that in the minors for a reason, but I could never understand this one. He was taken under the Drayton McLane and Ed Wade leadership……I wonder if Bobby Heck had anything to do with this draft pick.

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      • This was toward the end of McLane’s tenure as owner and it was clear he told his staff to draft the best ‘signable’ player. Back then there wasn’t the draft pool money like there is now and there was no cap. MLB had recommended ‘slot’ amounts for each draft pick, but very few teams followed that recommendation except Drayton and the Astros. The same was done with Jason Castro. Drayton was a nice guy, but he destroyed the Astros after Hunsicker left by refusing to go over slot for draft picks and then drafting only players that would sign for the slot bonus.

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  41. So of the following, who do you think is – and is not – on the Astros 40 man at the end of ST 2016:

    1. Marwin Gonzales, Jonathan Villar, both, or neither?
    2. Jed Lowrie, Luis Valbuena, both, or neither?
    3. Chris Carter, Jonathan Singleton, both, or neither?
    4. Colby Rasmus, Preston Tucker, both, or neither?
    5. Evan Gattis, Tyler White, both, or neither?
    6. Matt Duffy, A.J. Reed, both, or neither?
    7. Scott Kazmir, Scott Feldman, both, or neither?
    8. Pat Neshek, Josh Fields, both or neither?
    9. Jason Castro, Hank Conger, both, or neither?
    10. Tony Sipp, Oliver Perez, both or neither?
    11. Brad Peacock, Asher Wojiechwski, both, or neither?
    12. Mark Appel, Joe Musgrove, both, or neither?
    13. Joe Sclafani, Colin Moran, both, or neither?
    14. Carlos Gomez, Jake Marisnick, both or neither?
    15. Robbie Grossman, L.J. Hoes, both or neither?
    16. James Hoyt, Dan Strailey, both, nor neither?
    17. Brett Oberholtzer, Sam Deduno, both, or neither?
    18. Tony Kemp, Andrew Aplin, both or neither?
    19. Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, both, or neither?
    20. Mike Fiers, Vincent Velasquez, both, or neither?

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    • I’ll play, but I’m not sure exactly what players have to be put on the 40-man to be protected.
      1. Both
      2. Both
      3. Singleton
      4. Neither
      5. Gattis
      6. Neither
      7. Feldman
      8. Both
      9. Both
      10. Sipp
      11. Both
      12. Neither, unless Musgrove has to be protected
      13. Neither unless Moran has to be protected
      14. Both
      15. This is tough. I will say neither.
      16. Both
      17. Obie
      18. Neither unless Kemp has to be protected
      19. Neither
      20. Both

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      • Looking at the list of minor league players who are free agents, the Astros have, by far, the fewest with 2. Alaniz, who just came off a drug suspension and Mier. No other team had close to that few.

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    • really interesting question mr. b. i had the same confusion as tim about who had to be protected, but the question does say ‘at the end of st’, so I’m gonna assume this list is who is left to choose from.
      1. both
      2. both
      3. carter
      4. tucker unless rasmus signed to multi-year deal then both
      5. both
      6. reed
      7. feldman
      8. both
      9. both
      10. sipp unless price too high then neither
      11. neither
      12. both
      13. moran
      14. both
      15. hoes
      16. both
      17. ober
      18. both
      19. neither
      20. both

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    • I’m not sure I want to play, but I will play exactly as instructed. That is: who I think they would keep.
      1. Villar
      2. Both
      3. Neither
      4. Tucker
      5. White
      6. Duffy
      7. Feldman
      8. Neshek
      9. Castro
      10. Neither
      11. Peacock
      12. Musgrove
      13. Neither
      14. Both
      15. Hoes
      16. Hoyt
      17. Ober
      18. Neither
      19. Neither
      20. Both

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  42. Is this one of those would you rather games? Like “would you rather kiss a cobra on the mouth, or slide down a slide made of a razor blade into a pool of alcohol”??
    1. You have to be kidding me..right?
    Marwin
    2. Both
    3. Neither
    4. Rasmus…2yrs 12 mill
    5. White
    6. Both
    7. Neither
    8. Both
    9. Both…unfortunately
    10. Sipp
    11. Neither
    12. Both
    13. Both
    14. Both
    15. Neither
    16. Hoyt
    17. Neither
    18. Kemp
    19. Zobrist….but it won’t happen
    20. Both

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    • LOL, Becky. No game. No right or wrong answers. I was just trying to gauge how aggressive/progressive our fellow bloggers really think the F.O. is going to be this off-season, and what changes [upgrade or not] we really expect to see. In the end it always ultimately comes down to real tough choices between real players, so that is why I tried to put two persons who can play the same position side-by-side for comparison purposes. All 9 offensive positions [and the contributions we think we need from each slot in the line-up] have to be covered, while leaving room for at least two super-sub slots, 5 starting pitching slots, at least four regular bullpen slots, a lefty specialist spot, a long reliever slot, a set-up man slot, and a closer slot. When it comes down to projecting how actual spots will be filled with available or potentially available personnel, we see quickly the impact of the decisions the F.O. has to make over the winter.

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      • I notice that everyone thinks Carter and Kazmir will be gone, and no one thinks either Zobrist or Daniel Murphy is coming. No one thinks either Marwin, Fiers, Gomez, or Velasquez is going anywhere. You are the only one so far [except me] who thinks Villar is going anywhere. Same with Feldman, who I would keep unless it takes him (along with prospects) to close a deal for a flame-throwing closer. It is split 2-2 so far on whether Gattis will be gone and it is also a toss up as to whether either Preston Tucker, Matt Duffy, or Tony Kemp will be with us when the season starts.

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    • I’ve got carter staying. this is a shaky pick, but i think singleton gets traded on his, wait for it, ‘potential’ that some other team sees. carter stays until reed or someone else steps up to take it away (or carter slides so far down he goes) a deadline trade may be when carter exits.

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  46. Jose Altuve is the shortest player in major league baseball.
    He has a Silver Slugger Award
    He has a batting title.
    He has led the AL in hits and stolen bases two years in a row.
    He is a two time All-Star
    He has a Rawlings Gold Glove Award
    And he is only 25 years old.
    I would like Jose to get a World Series ring in 2016.

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  48. That’s a pretty special award for Jose. Not too long ago he was considered somewhat of a defensive liability in some circles. The guy keeps working…..

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    • I actually like that this award is voted on by the managers and coaches. It’s basically an endorsement of Altuve that (ignoring their own 2B), a large number respect his defense enough and would gladly have him on the field given a chance.

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    • I remember watching a game early on in the season in Seattle and their 2 broadcast guys were talking about Altuve’s bat and said defensively is serviceable, I was like what!@!!!!

      BAM

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      • Up until this season, Altuve’s defensive numbers weren’t that good. He made huge strides this season defensively and it showed on the field, in his stats,and resulted in a Gold Glove. He was a very good defensive 2B this year, the best he’s ever played.
        Because he and Correa are so close, it is very promisinging to know that Altuve can help Carlos play better defense by showing him there is room for improvement everywhere and every year. I don’t think Carlos has much trouble in that area.
        So what is left for Altuve to improve on before he reaches the level of elite: Base running mistakes.

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      • Spot on, oldpro. I’d like to see him add in the ability to bunt for a hit and improve his pitch selection…but I think the aggressiveness is too far wired in to make real strides in that last area.

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  50. Here is a little example of how strong the Astros farm system is.
    The LA Angels have only 6 players in their minor league system with a overall rating of 50 or higher. They include 5 pitchers and only 1 position player.
    The Astros have 13 players with a 50 overall rating or higher in their system. They include 5 pitchers and 8 position players.
    The Astros’ AA and AAA Players of the Year aren’t even in their Top 30 prospects and the Astros’ #30 prospect turned 25 in October and hit .362 in AAA this past season with a .498 SLG.
    Anyone realize that Colin Moran is listed as the same size as Correa, 6’4″ and 215 lbs?
    Did anyone notice that #1 pick Dansby Swanson spent all of his first pro season in short season Low A ball, while Alex Bregman had real good stats in High A ball?

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    • op i am hoping moran has a hot spring and at some point early in the season is still hot and is called up. i noticed in your list above you did not keep him. are you expecting him to be traded?
      with this strong of a minor league system some prospects have to be traded or they are lost through rule 5 or blocked. i have less problems than most about the gomez trade in that we got a very good outfielder and an at least #5 starter. sorry to see some of the guys go in the trade but i think we have just as good or better players left in the system and it clears the bottleneck a bit.

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      • rj, the question of the game is actually who I would keep on the 40-man roster, not who I would keep. Since Moran is not rule 5 eligible, I am going to keep him on Fresno’s roster and he will be a non-roster invitee to camp. Then I would send him to the minor league spring training with specific things to work on.
        Moran is matched in the game with Sclafani, and unless Luhnow plans on getting rid of some infielders, I don’t see Joe being protected.

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      • rj, I only see the bottleneck of minor leaguers if the Astros keep all of their arbitration eligible players. The big majority of the Rule 5 eligible players have to be ignored in this process because there is no way they would stick on a roster for the whole year if drafted.
        There is a triangle here with one side of players the Astros have to add to protect them, one side of players who are not protected but are questionable, and one side of players who are already on the roster but may not be as valuable to the Astros as some of that second group. A player from that first group might be Musgrove.
        A player from the second group might be Fontana or Heineman or a reliever like Gustave with that 80 fastball.
        And a player from that third group could be someone like Cruz or Hoes or Peacock.
        We don’t know how the Astros have the players valued relative to each other, but we will get some of those questions answered soon.

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      • Yeah, one of my favorite guys, Joe Sclafani, will not be protected. But hopefully Joe will get a real chance to make a major league roster at some point soon. I’m sorry it will not be in Houston, but it speaks to the apparent depth of our farm system.

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