Six weeks to go: Hold on Astros!

In six weeks the Astros’ unexpected 2015 run to the playoffs will be over. Astros’ fans have been waiting for the ship to sink for most of the season, but somehow the team has stayed at the top for most of the season despite having a 30-35 record since June 3. After their game of August 17 they were 2-1/2 games ahead of the Angels and three ahead of the Rangers. A month ago they had a half game lead in the division and two months ago they had a 2-1/2 game lead in the division.

They have kept the lead mostly because the teams chasing them had come from a below average spot and then made a run they could not sustain. Having two teams fairly close to them is more problematic, because it is very likely that one of them (and the blog contributors here are betting it is the Rangers) will put on a push that will force the Astros to play better than they have over the last two and a half months.

So what are the keys for the Astros heading down the stretch?

  • Have to perform better on the road – They have to get out of the funk that has had them winning only five of the previous 22 road games
  • Have to continue to perform well in the division. They are 28-23 against the AL West so far this season
  • Have to show well against the Angels and the Rangers. They play them 13 times between Sept. 11th and the end of the season
  • Have to get George Springer back and performing well in the next three weeks
  • Have to show they will do something / anything to get a decent bat into the first base spot. Tyler White or Matt Duffy or AJ Reed or anyone else with a pulse would be an improvement over Chris Carter. And frankly, they need to do it before the playoff rosters are set on Sept. 1
  • Figure out how to slide Lance McCullers Jr and Vincent Velasquez back in the mix without screwing up the starting rotation and /or the bullpen
  • Stop giving away base runners every game – There is Aggressive and then there is Dumb and they have flashed over to Dumb

So – what are your keys coming down the stretch?

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156 responses to “Six weeks to go: Hold on Astros!”

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      • We have 19 games left at home and 21 left on the road. We’ve been terrible on the road and haven’t hit well this homestand. With Luhnow being satisfied with the production of some of these players, I do think it’s too late to make moves and I don’t see this team holding up in September.
        Jake Marisnick is hitting .111 in August, Gomez is worse than that, Gattis is good for one hit every 5 trips to the plate as is Castro. Conger is terrible behind the plate. Valbuena just sucks at the plate. I don’t see how four or five position players can carry this team to a division championship. I hope I’m wrong but that is not any better than a .500 team at best and I don’t think both Texas and LA are going to fold.
        Altuve is starting to hit, but he hit .341 all last year and could not carry this team.
        The only hope I see for this team to hang on is if Tucker catches fire from the left side and Altuve, Springer and Correa just go bonkers in September.

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      • Can’t disagree with your individual comments – but remember every team in the division has holes. The Angels have holes the size of mack trucks. The Rangers have holes in their pitching. I’ve said the Astros were basically a mediocre .500 team that is thriving off one hot month – but I’ve also said to win this division that might be all it takes. I expect them to finish the season 2-3 games above or below .500 the rest of the way – and unlike most I believe that will be all it takes. Now we probably get put out of the playoffs in the 1st round 4-1 by a more complete Royals or Blue Jays team – but its growth, and you never know what happens when you get there. Both teams in the WS last year were wild card teams. The Cards once won the WS off a 83-79 finish. Short series can be crazy. Lets get there and enjoy the ride.

        I think White would help. I think Luhnow thinks he might still get something for Carter instead of straight non tendering him once the lines open back up after the WS. I can’t think of any other reason he is holding on to the guy, so I don’t expect to see White. Luhnow has surprised us before though. Carter could be gone in the next week or two.

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    • Looking at the remaining schedules for all three teams…and I’m not sure any of the three can win the division! Yikes…there are very few series against lesser opponents remaining. I was thinking about this the other day though…the Astros have 2 more games with TB and then 13 series left on the year. We have six games against Anaheim and 7 against Texas remaining. We finish with three against Arizona, whereas Texas and Anaheim play eachother the last four games.

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  4. To me there are two main areas in the stretch: (1) Excellent starting pitchers + the bullpen continue what they have all year, and (2) someone needs to start hitting besides our infield twins. At this point, I actually feel sorry for Carter. He is being trotted out every other day to just embarrass himself. We are spoiled by the late inning heroics but we could have had multiple runs again tonight with a simple base knock.

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  5. Mark Appel. 12 hits and 9 runs given up in 4.2 innings to a terrible New Orleans team Tuesday night. Fortunately, Tony Kemp, Tyler White, Matt Duffy, Tyler Heineman, Nolan Fontana and Andrew Aplin are all knocking the cover off the ball and have 14 runs in five innings, so far.
    Jonathan Villar is hitless in the leadoff spot but drew a walk and then got picked off. He also has a throwing error and a fielding error, which contributed three unearned runs to Appel. Villar has K’d twice also. Fresno still up 14-9 in the sixth.
    AJ Reed had four hits and Jon Kemmer had three, including a three-run bomb and McCullers had a 57 game score in his three innings of work in a Corpus Christi Hooks 8-4 win.
    James Ramsey, Alex Bregman, Ronnie Mitchell and Sean McMullem all continued to pound the ball again tonight and Lancaster moves a little closer to the playoffs with an 8-4 win.

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    • We need mr.error machine to stay right where he IS!!! If luhnow thinks he can unload him now….he’s smoking some wacky weed.
      It rattles a starting pitcher to have such bad defence behind him. Mark just had a bad day at the office. But Feldman didn’t!!!

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      • Jonathan Villar has since struck out again. He is on a roll.
        By the way, Heineman has his first homer for Fresno.
        The three guys in the Fresno lineup who have major league experience are 1 for 11. That’s Villar, Hoes and Singleton. It’s the young guys, who sit down on the far end of the bench that are carrying Fresno tonight.

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    • OP1, that’s why I’m dubious about the future of our former number one pick. A guy coming out of Stanford with his pedigree should be more consistent. He’s been anything but. Every time he seems to be turning the corner, he gets lost again. As I’ve said before, I’m not sure he’s got the balls for it.

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  6. My apologies for going off topic so early in the thread, but is there a reason that the cheapest ticket to the game last night, tonight and for the rest of the series with the Rays is $20?!!!! Folks wonder why attendance is down? Ticks me off.

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    • Kids tickets are free Aug 17-20th against the Rays when you enter offer code “KIDSFREE”

      So, they raised the base prices to offset the special offer. If you don’t have any kids you get hosed…but if you have 1 child per adult you are probably saving 20% or so off your total cost of admission. Sneaky.

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  7. Tri Cities’ Dexture McCall was the MVP of the NY-Penn League All-Star game Tuesday. He hit a two run double in the first inning and his North squad won 4-2.
    Tri Cities players had three of their team’s RBIs.

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    • I have to disagree DaveB. JL is looking like an idiot all on his own. Tyler White is just going to work every night.

      Not to rub salt into a wound, but here are a few stats for our premier 1st baseman. Last HR July 28th. 13 games in August. 6 games with 3 or more ABs. 3 hits. Yessiree Bob. Just as the eye ball test would tell you, 1 hit every 2 games. And I have to add a note on last night’s comments. The announcers were asking about what it meant that Carter is the leader in pitches per at bat. It is simple. It takes 3 pitches to strike out. It takes only 1 pitch to get a hit or an out. His minimum pitches per AB is 3.

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      • Tim, a true needle in the haystack. Luhnow and his team deserve credit for that. But he’s more than used up that pat on the back. Seems to me he’s got his whole (latest) plan all figured out and is just too damn stubborn to see the obvious and deviate from it, to the detriment of the organization. This team begs for help at first.

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      • I completely agree, Dave. I have been trumpeting for White to get called up. Luhnow has done a great job in the draft since he has been here, but his trades have been average, at best, at least so far. It isn’t the players we gave up that concern me, although I feel Maverick will be a very good player, but it is the players we have gotten in return that have, for the most part, been unimpressive. For example, the players the Braves acquired in the Gattis trade aren’t players I expect to have good major league careers, but could we have done better than Gattis for those players? Of all the trades Luhnow has made the only player I think we will regret losing is Maverick Phillips, but if Gomez returns to the player he can be, considering we can give him a QO and get a draft pick for him when he eventually leaves via FA, I don’t fret losing him too much. I never thought Folty or Nitro would be nothing more than back end of the rotation pitchers, or in Folty’s case, a late inning reliever and you can find equivalent talent via free agency.

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  9. Some observations from being at the game last night.
    – Announced crowd of 17,000+ it sure seemed like even less than that. I know it is a week night and the Rays and there is some odd-wad pricing issues – but school is still out and the team is in first place and man if you get to see Altuve and Correa play – that is something….
    – Weird game for Correa. Made a world class play in the first inning. Fumbled an easy double play ball (barely got a force) later and had a couple wicked balls eat him up that he recovered from. Struggled hitting until it was clutch time and then he whacked the double in the 8th that tied it and moved the go-ahead run to 3rd with none out.
    – And of course they could not score that run from 3rd with none out as Lowrie struck out and Rasmus after 3 Ks hit into a 3-2-3 double play.
    – Feldman was workman like – kept giving up hits but mostly singles and got a lot of ground balls. He kept them in it
    – Altuve seems to be back to hitting like we are used to – taking what they are giving him and stinging it. I thought he won it in the 9th – just got under his drive to right center a little too much
    – It is amazing to watch them hack, especially Gattis and Rasmus – swinging like Joaquin Phoenix in Signs
    – Felt funny when Carter came up in the 9th – wondering how I would feel if he won the game. No worries about that.
    – MarGo wins this one

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  10. I’m going half full today, Lunhow will make a move at 1B, the real Carlos Gomez will show up, Gatiis will hit better again, and we win the division by a game.

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  12. Thing about Springer is that he won’t have 30 days. He’s just starting to lift again and has not yet swung a bat. We’ll be lucky to get him back by mid September.

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  13. The Cubs put Dexter Fowler on revocable waivers and nobody claimed him. They are now free to trade him to any club, without him going through the waiver wire again.

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  14. Alright – how about this plan? Conger goes on the 15 day DL on August with a pulled eyelash. Gattis becomes our backup catcher and platoons right/lefty with Castro. White is added to the 40 and comes up for a cup of coffee. Downsides? Service time should not be a concern is the consensus.

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  15. Kevin Chapman almost blew that game last night for Fresno. He gave up 4 hits and three runs in the ninth, before Jordan Jankowski came in and bailed him out. Fresno 14 and New Orleans 12.

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  17. The next few days will tell us if JL thinks we have a chance to win or he wants to just run out the string. He has a chance to improve the team by using addition by subtraction. Time will tell what is in the basket.

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  19. Basically – here we are:
    – 42 games to go 20 at home and 22 on the road
    – In the last 42 games the team was 21-21
    – If they go 21-21 in the next 42 games and are at 86-76 – I doubt they make the playoffs as a division winner or a wild card
    – The go on a 10 game road trip to Oak/LAA/TX starting Sept. 7. If they come back from that trip in good shape they may be able to limp into the finish line in decent shape

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    • DanP, I agree with your notes but I would like to add one more disclaimer. It is important that the Astros split or win the various series the rest of the way. If they win the remaining 7 games with the Rangers but lose the remaining 6 with LAA – it is over .500 but you give LAA a big edge toward the finish. I do agree that 21-21 sends you home from Arizona.

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    • This team needs to go on a run – they need to go 8-2 or 9-1.
      What they really need is for a couple of the culprits to do what baseball players usually do sometime during the season – get red hot. I don’t care if it is Valbuena or Gattis or even Carter – they needs somebody to knock in 10 runs in a week or hit .400 for a couple weeks. They need a couple big bats to take the pressure off the top of the lineup which has had to do everything.

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      • That would be one way to get it done, but I think they need to be careful about looking ahead. The old cliche is one game at a time, but it’s really one series at a time. Grind it out in the rubber games if necessary, but winning each series would almost surely put them into October ball.

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  20. I understand, tell me when you are tired of me bringing up our 33rd round pick playing with the Fresno ball club.

    In 53 at bats, he’s got 37 RBI’s hitting .509 with runners in scoring position and has a 1.439 OPS. I think he likes those situations. We could use a guy like that.

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  23. These guys are gonna face pitchers like this, and some are even BETTER when and if they get to the playoffs. ((((( GULP))))))

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  24. Daveb…luhnow addressed the delima at first base this afternoon, and said White or A.J. Reed will not be called up anytime soon. He did allude that after Sept 1st all bets were off. So we may get to see White in Sept. We’re stuck with Karter for the time being.

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  27. Conger’s line tonight – K, K, K, K. Absolutely pathetic. At least Lowrie, Altuve, Correa have hit decently. Gattis comes through in the clutch.

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  28. Unless something happens, our chances of making the playoffs is diminishing rapidly. We have the opportunity to get there this year. What is wrong with JL. I guess he’s going to go with what brought him, even if it causes us to miss it this year.

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    • Now it’s two hits and four RBI’s for the 33rd rounder. His continued unrewarded success almost disgusts me at this at this point. He’s being blocked by a .205 guy and a .180 guy. On the bright side of things, Carlos Correa is a remarkable 20 year old major league baseball player. Not many guys at any point in their career can aim for a hole and find it.

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  30. Alright…the bat flip / pose by Valbuena after every contact is bothering me. I think it’s time for Hudgens to sit him down and work on breaking out of the box.

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  32. And…..we are walking it off again boss!! Tonight’s hero is our shiny new short stop!
    NOW…..tomorrow’s starter has to go 9 innings, because OUR bull pen, AND their bull pen is S P E N T. Every single game from now on is a must win…..

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  33. I am happy with the win tonight, but these are losses on the road. If the offense doesn’t pick up it is going to be a stressful last 6 weeks.

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    • I agree, Tim. It’s like the GM doesn’t care if half of the lineup hasn’t hit all year. I think the fans who have complained about the bad hitting by Valbuena, and Castro and Gattis and Carter and Marisnick have a valid point. And Conger’s catching is horrible.
      But the pitching we’ve gotten the last two nights was spectacular and both nights, one player in the lineup has singlehandedly done all of the offense. That also was the case that last game in SF. But now we face fabulous pitching the rest of the week. I wonder how we’ll look Sunday night.
      I’m hoping the team starts hitting, inspired by the wins of the last two nights. There are a lot of hits that are due, according to BABIP.
      I’m only going to defend my guy this once. Preston looks like crap at the plate, right now. But he is a rookie and he has a higher batting average and SLG than some of the guys who play every day. So I am not as hard on him as I am on others. But Carlos Correa is everything I have dreamed of since I saw him play in 2013. Remember back to the times I talked about his best stat: His batting average with runners in scoring position. He is that guy.

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      • OP,

        Everyone here knows I am probably one of Luhnow’s biggest supporters and I agree with how they went about the rebuild, much to the chagrin of many Astros fans. With that being said I am completely befuddled and frustrated at Tyler White remaining in Fresno. He has more ABs than Tucker had at the AAA level, a much higher batting average and OPS and, like Tucker, has a decent contact rate. No one is expecting White to carry his 1.10+ OPS into the big leagues, but he deserves a chance to help out the Astros, especially in light of the putrid production, or lackthereof, we are getting from Carter and Valbuena. Can anyone offer an explanation on why Tyler White probably won’t get called up prior to Sept. 1st? I am fine with keeping Reed in the minors as he is a better prospect than White and I wouldn’t want to make his big league debut be in the heat of a pennant race, but White is 24 and can’t prove much more in the minor leagues.

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      • Reasons to leave White at AAA:
        1. Not authorized to DFA / waive a guy making $4m+ for the season by ownership
        2. Not ready to waive someone off 40 man
        3. Carter is due to break our, man!
        4. Carter’s OBP is 67th in the AL…that’s not terrible
        5. Come on…Fresno has stunk forever! They have a shot at a championship!
        6. If he doesn’t do well it hurts his perceived value this off season when Luhnow tries to trade him.

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  34. Carlos Perez, former not-worthy-to-be-an-Astros-catcher in the Astros system has homered for the only run of the game for the Angels. Angels lead 1-0 in the bottom of the eighth. Hank Conger, the worthy-to-be-an-Astros-catcher, struck out five times tonight for our Astros.

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  36. Lancaster trailed Inland Empire 13-5 in the middle of the fourth inning and just got a walkoff homer from James Ramsey to lead off the ninth. Final score 14-13 Lancaster. They had 18 hits and Bregman is starting to look spectacular with another two-hit, two-walk night.

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  37. I was surprised they pitched to Correa with first base open. I’m betting that won’t happen a month from now.
    And 3 walk offs in the homestand – it continues to feel like one of those years. JL you need to do your part.

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    • Yeah, some managers don’t like loading the bases with the winning run at 3B, but about the only guy I’d rather face Correa instead of in that situation is Miguel Cabrera.

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  38. I had two thoughts from last night’s game.
    (1) (Old bald headed guy sitting in Houston). Great starting pitching. Hope we don’t have to use our bullpen again. Terrible hitting. Who is our batting coach? Who is that idiot calling balls and strikes? He must live in Tampa. Oh God, not Qualls. 3 K’s, I knew he could do it. Why can’t we hit in the clutch? Correa did a great job of hitting by going to the hole in the right. We are going to the World Series. Glad I stayed up until almost midnight.
    OR
    (2) (Old bald headed guy sitting in Tampa-St.Pete) Great starting pitching. Hope we don’t have to use our bullpen again. Terrible hitting. Who is our batting coach? Who is that idiot calling balls and strikes? He must live in Houston. Oh God, not back in our bullpen again. Finally some base runners, just need a hit. Jeez, 3 K’s. Who did you say was our batting coach? Why can’t we hit in the clutch. Let a dang rookie beat us. I hate the shift. Joe Madden would have won that game. Well at least football season has started. Go Bucs. I will never stay up until one AM to watch that stuff.

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  39. Did everyone read the article about Conger in Spit.com yesterday? I read, fascinated in utter, sarcastic amazement what he and Hinch said. The story carried me to thoughts of the loud, beeping maneuverability of a trash truck in reverse. Then I remembered to yawn, just like Hank does after a strikeout.

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  40. YA THINK LUN (*)_^)&*^

    stros first base prospect Tyler White is a triumph for the team’s scouting department, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes. White, a 33rd-round selection that signed for $1,000 out of Western Carolina, has soared through the minors and reached Triple-A this year, where he’s hitting .396/.489/.617 with five homers and nearly as many walks (26) as strikeouts (28) in 178 plate appearances. Drellich spoke to Astros scouting director Mike Elias and the team’s director of decision sciences, Sig Mejdal, about the way in which they came to draft White. Drellich also wonders if the Astros, who are struggling with first base production, can afford to keep White in Triple-A. Though he doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, White could potentially boost the production of a team dedicated to winning right now, which may trump traditional roster concerns.

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    • Drellich is about a month behind our almost daily discussion here on the Chip blog re:33rd round draft choice White. I’m glad we can assist with a story line from time to time.

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  41. Mccullars takes the ball on Sunday and with him coming back, a position player will get sent down. Who goes and who stays. Tucker and Jake both have options left, so it’s gonna be one of these guys.
    My money is on Tucker….he’s been sitting on the bench lately, and Marisnick can play all of the outfield positions. If Tucker is sent down he will be back in a couple of weeks when they expand the roster. AND….I hope we will see Mr. White sometime in Sept also!! Remember Fresno *will* be in the playoffs this year, so I don’t anticipate seeing too many guys from AA or AAA in early Sept.

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  43. Velasquez is on his way to Houston, probably because of the bullpen delima. Ok……
    This just got more interesting, because someone has to go to bring him up, and someone ELSE has to go by Sun because of McCullers. Hmmmmm…….your take?

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      • Pretty good guess. If you’re right, they have to leave him in the minors for at least 10 or 11 days, I think. In order for Tucker to be eligible for post-season he would have to be on the roster on the 31st. Maybe they don’t plan on him being on the 25-man playoff roster, though.
        I mean, they have the hot bats of Gomez and Marisnick they will need for the playoffs.

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      • Yeah, Tucker has been slumping, but he’s still got an .852 OPS against righties. Jake’s OPS is about .525 since May 1 and his last RBI happened on July 5. But yes, with all the bats we’ve got, keep the defensive guy. We’ll keep scoring runs, right?

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  44. Spotrac says that the Astros’ payroll for 2015 is currently sitting at $79.7 mil
    Spotrac says that the Dodgers’ Dead Money payroll for the 2015 sits at $86.7 mil.
    The Dodgers are paying more this year for players who aren’t with their team than the Astros’ entire payroll.
    The Dodgers’ total 2015 payroll is currently $308.8 mil.
    With 13 major league players signed for next year, the Dodgers already have $202 mil in payroll committed for next year.

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    • Oldpro……man, I’m glad *I * don’t have to write those checks!!! I think we paid Wandy for three years after he left here. Win at any cost I guess, but the ownership can afford it. Oh Lawd….the boys have their work cut out for them tonight Chris Archer is REALLY good.

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    • I wonder if the Dodgers are not living in a “2nd Dot Com era.” They do have 1.3 million more butts in seats. So at $100 per person, that brings them $130 Million more than the Astros. Time Warner is expected to lose $1 Billion (with a “B”) in the 25 year deal. Just can not imagine that deal being renewed. However, if someone threw $7 Billion toward the Astros for 25 years, I would be in favor of spending it on the team. That deal buys you one Kershaw or one Greinke. (And I don’t know how much of that, if any, falls into the league revenue sharing.)

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  49. Hey – I figured it out. Fields turned 30 yesterday and they figure he is Cinderella’s carriage about to turn into a pumpkin…..
    In his last 13 appearances over 11 innings he has given up 0 runs, 4 hits, 2 walks, and has 13 Ks. I hope he is resting and is back up before the playoff rosters are made out.

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    • I hope he was sent down to rest, because I couldn’t imagine he had done something to get set down for. Does the same thing apply to him as another minor leaguer that he has to stay down for two weeks? We need all hands on deck…..now is not a good time to send one of your BEST relievers to AA.

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      • It has nothing to do with performance and more to do with Fields pitching 4 of the past 5 games and the Astros needing someone that can go a few innings tonight, if needed. The bullpen is short on arms with 3 extra inning games in the past 4 days.

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      • Still didn’t answer my qustion. Does he have to stay down for two weeks? Or can he come back up in a few days.

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      • Ten days, Becky. He has to be down in the minors for ten days before he can be called up.
        Fields is a hard throwing RH reliever. Velasquez is a hard throwing RH reliever. it is a trade off that may only last 10 days. It may be for longer, it can’t be any shorter for Fields. They may need Velasquez in relief on Friday or Saturday and he has gotten some relieving experience lately. Depending on how he does may be the determining factor on whether he is on the playoff roster, if there is one. They know what Fields can do. they may want both of them in the playoff bullpen and could leave Fiers or even Feldman off the playoff roster if they think they want hard throwers in the playoff bullpen!
        There are going to be moves between now and the end of the month. Springer does not have to be on the Active roster on 8/31 because he is on the DL and can still be on the playoff roster.
        Has anybody noticed that my preseason prediction of Corpus Christi being the main feed team for the Astros has come to be? There have been more players taken from them than from Fresno. And the ones who were from Fresno had not been there long. Players being moved up and down have been moved to CC.

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      • I hedged my bet by saying “playoff roster, if there is one.”
        I also said it was “too late to make moves”.
        I think it’s true. Luhnow has said he isn’t bringing Reed or White to Houston before September. and I think September is too late. Again, I hope I’m wrong. If the Astros make the playoffs, I’m wrong and I am so happy about it!
        I cannot wait to LOL with you.

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