An early season post used the term YIE (Yes It’s Early) in speaking of the solid start the Astros built out of zero expectations. This post could be called YIE-2, but gosh what Carlos Correa has done to date at the tender age of 20 at the major league level is unbelievably exceptional.
Through his 46th game on Saturday, he had put up a wonderful line of .299/.345 OBP/.916 OPS with 28 runs, 14 doubles, 12 home runs, 32 RBI and five stolen bases thrown in to the mix. If his numbers were projected to 162 games, he would have 99 run, 49 doubles, 42 HRs, 113 RBIs and 18 stolen bases.
If he had put up those numbers in 2014 for a whole season he would have been first in HRs and RBI, second in slugging percentage and doubles, fifth in OPS and sixth in runs scored in the AL. And the players he would have been rubbing shoulders with would not have been either shortstops or 20 year olds.
Even though he has played half or less of the games that most shortstops have played to date, he is the only AL shortstop with double digit HRs and probably the only other shortstops in his class right now in the AL is the newly acquired Troy Tulowitzki of Toronto. Of the other AL shortstops, his .916 OPS is followed next by Xavier Bogaerts of Boston at .761.
Do you want to compare him to famous Houston Astro prodigies? Probably the top two players at such a tender age were Larry Dierker who debuted on his 18th birthday and Cesar Cedeno who came up as a 19 year old.
Through his age 20 year, Dierker had compiled a 23-22 cumulative record and an ERA of 3.30 in 441.2 innings pitched. Of course his early over-use including 305 innings at the age of 22 has been blamed for his shortened career and retirement at the age of 30. Cedeno hit very well in his 90 game call-up at 19 (.310 average, .790 OPS, 46 runs, 7 HR, 42 RBI) and in his age 20 full year (.264 average, .690 OPS, 85 runs, 10 HR, 82 RBI) and was a George Springer in the outfield. Granted that was a different era for hitting and the Astrodome was a black hole to hit in during the early 70’s. Still Correa has shown so much power at such an early age and such a good bat that he seems to be in a class by himself. He has been as good or better than any Astro who played at such an early age and he has done it while playing great at the toughest position on the field.
Now if you want to compare Correa to Hall of Fame shortstops of the not so distant past, he still stands out. Robin Yount came up at 18 and survived at an early age, but his first few years were pretty pedestrian or worse (.250 average, .622 OPS) (.267 average, .674 OPS) and as a 20 year old (.252 average, .593 OPS). He did not hit the 12th HR in his career until his third season and he did not hit double digit home runs until he turned 24.
How about Barry Larkin? Well first of all he was still at the University of Michigan at age 20, but got up to the majors for a cup of coffee by the time he was 22. His first significant playing time was when he was 23 and he put up .244 average, .678 OPS, 12 home runs, 43 RBIs in 125 games.
What about the Captain, Derek Jeter? Well when he was 20 he was whipping up through the minors from A+ to AA to AAA posting a cumulative .344 average, .410 OBP, .873 OPS but only five home runs and 68 RBIs. He got a short stay at the majors at 21, but was a star the next season with the Yanks with a .314 average, .800 OPS, 10 home runs, 78 RBIs. As brilliant as he was, Jeter topped out with 24 HRs and 102 RBIs when he turned 25.
Maybe we are seeing someone like the great Ernie Banks, who hit 44 home runs and knocked in 117 RBIs at age 24 and then put up two MVP seasons a few years later (47 home runs, 129 RBIs) and (45 home runs, 143 RBI).
The point is that YIE, but…. we may be witnessing a player for the ages blooming in front of our eyes at an age that he would need a false ID to buy an $8 beer at the ball park.
Questions:
- How do you compare Correa to other youngsters who have come up to the Astros?
- Where do you think he stands against the current major league crop of short stops?
- Is it fair to compare him to the Hall of Fame SS’s shown above?
- Where do you think he will be five years from now? Ten years? 15?
CHIPALATTA 
Justin Ferrell and the Quad Cities River Bandits look to have their hands full tonight. Yonny Chirinos, the Venezuelan pitcher Bowling Green will be sending to the hill, comes in sporting a 0.75 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a .193 BAA. He’s struck out 17 and walked only 2 in 24 IP. Time for QC to get their offense in gear and back Justin’s effort against Tampa Bay’s Midewest League affiliate.
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Quad Cities has some AWESOME pitchers in their rotation!! These kids will be making some BIG noise in 2017!!! Or sooner!!
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Ferrell certainly outpitched Chirinos tonight. Now to close out the shutout! And for the Astros to break out of this hitting funk and take control of this game.
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By the way, congratulations are due to Josh Hader on a brilliant debut in the Milwaukee Brewers organization last night. 9 SO, 1 H allowed in 5 IP for the Biloxi Shockers. Glad to see you continue to do well, Josh – and very glad that you are headed for the National League, not to a division rival.
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Maybe Hader is happy because the Brewers told him he will be a starter who starts games, rather than a starter who doesn’t start games.
For Houston he had 52 starts as a starter, and 32 relief appearances as a starter.
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Walking DeShields is a recipe for disaster, Mr. Straily.
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Well, it’s pretty apparent that Straily is not an answer going forward. But a bigger issue is what we do about left handed arm(s) out of the pen. And then there is the fact that Keuchel and McHugh are on pace to throw significantly more innings than they have before. Of course McCullers has already reached that point. Luhnow has got his work cut out for him. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pitching staff over the next eight weeks. Feldman and Fiers need to step up.
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The 6th inning will be the story at the end of this game. Bases loaded and no outs, leaving the bases loaded…..no score. Arlington must take all the brains outta this team. Top of the 7th one, two three your out. For the last 10yrs situational hitting has been the absolute story of the Houston Astros.
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Please please please…. someone tell Altuve he doesn’t have to swing at EVERYTHING outside of the strike zone. Especially the ones waaaay outside the zone.
Thanks.
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For a guy who was pitching on 3 days rest, getting an O dark thirty flight from California to get to Arlington to pitch tonight…………I think Dan Straily did an excellent job! He and Sipp, and Harris held the Rangers to 4 runs. I’m not sticking this loss on the pitching staff….the bats were absolutely gone tonight. Thus game pissed me off more than last night’s loss did. NO EXCUSES!!
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What’s wrong with a safety squeeze to tie the game. Then go for the win. It seems we want to go the “all or nothing” route. Not impressed with situational hitting or managing tonite.
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Situational hitting has plagued this team for
YEARS….and it ain’t getting any better. I don’t know the answer….it’s perplexing.
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You have to place this one on the hitting side – leaving the bases loaded with one out early and then stranding the tying run at 3B with no outs in the ninth… They did have no luck on MarGo’s out – he torched it and it could easily have been in the RF corner for a double. I question not pinch hitting Conger for Castro with one out in the ninth, but then again Castro has had three big HRs and 10 RBIs lately so what do I know.
Bottomline – the game was for the taking and the Rangers took it.
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Dan – I don’t prescribe to the theory that BABIP is mostly luck. A lot of it comes from the hitter making the right decision. Valbuena beat the (moronic) shift to put us at first and third with no outs. With the middle infield playing back there was no justification for Marwin hitting one down the first base line. There are only a few outcomes you don’t want: strikeout, pop-up, ball to pitcher, ball to corner IF. He has to try to hit the ball up the middle to get the run in. Even a 4-6-3 dp ties the game and gives us a chance. Take what is given.
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Devin, you can’t hold hitting the ball on the button down the line against Marwin. If guys could place the ball wherever they wanted, whenever they want to, there would be no shifts. its just not that easy.
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It is a skill they practice. Their first round in bp is doing just that. Marwin was trying to just hit it hard where it was pitched rather than hitting it where the fielders dictate would be ideal.
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BP is a much different animal Devin.
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I got very upset last night hoping for a least a tie in the 9th, but their record is 60-48. I get so PO’d when I see Rasmus playing so shallow he can touch Altuve, but they are in 1st by 3 games. When we see a shot of the entire field, we have 3 fielders to the right of 2nd base, but two outfielders to the left and I see that only the Cards & Royals have more wins.
So this AM, I am talking to myself about being thankful the team still has a chance for the post season. It has been 10 years since I could say that. So I re-read Pippa Passes: “The lark’s on the wing; The snail’s on the thorn; God’s in His heaven—All’s right with the world! “
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Amen. Thanks for the reminder that we are fortunate to be were we are.
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Marwin hit the ball hard all night with nothing to show for it. Gomez and Valbuena had a good night. It’s frustrating watching Altuve when he’s out of sync. He’s given us higher expectations. I think Straily threw 86 pitches and 45 were balls. He was an accident waiting to happen. I wouldn’t rush him back out to the mound. And Sipp, the only lefty in the pen, has to come in and get the lefty Hamilton out instead of giving up the base hit that gave them the 4th run. When you give up four runs through the first five innings, you’re going to lose most games.
And yes indeed, you can’t win unless you score runs. I think we’ll get better at that though, once Lowrie is playing full time, Gomez settles in and hopefully, we get Springer back. With what Conger and Castro have done very recently, I’m optimistic.
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I was at the game last night. I think that has to be the toughest loss this season. Well, we got Kazmir for a reason and tonight is as big a game as they have had this season. If the Astros win it only allows Texas to gain 1 game on us, instead of 3, in this series and that is big. Let’s get the win tonight and, hopefully, carry it over into Oakland.
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The Astros have to be seeing the same stats we see. According to Fangraphs the worst offensive producers for the year on the club are:
19. Marwin
20. Valbuena
21. Castro
22. Grossman
23.Gattis
24. Carter
25. Marisnick
That’s it. How many of them were right there in that lineup last night?
It is hard to have any situational hitting when you dominate the lineup with players who are bad hitters.
That’s not me talking. That’s Fangraphs, the guys who do this for a living! The Numbers Guys! The Stat Gurus.
What do they say about the definition of insanity?
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Yet “they” keep putting them back into the lineup repeatedly.
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You hit the nail on the head! Gattis is below all his projected offensive numbers for the year by the major projectors, Zips and Steamer. They projected he would be a replacement level player this year in playing around 40 games.
But he has turned out to be a below replacement player and has played in 102 games.
So the projections never figured that the Astros would be playing a Below Replacement Level DH for 102 game. They figured the Astros would be smarter than that and only play him in 40 games.
So, one would have to figure that the Astros thinking on Gattis matched the Astros thinking on Carter: “surely he can’t continue to perform this badly!”
Yes, he can!
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OK – so
– Grossman is gone
– Marisnick has only hit in 1 of the last 5 games (came in for defense late in the ohter two)
– Carter is only playing about 1/2 the time (which may be a 1/2 too much)
– MarGo is playing about 2/3 of the time and subbing for two worse hitters in Valbueana and Carter
– Valbuena has been getting more and more days off
– Castro has been playing often lately as usual – though he just ended a 7 game hitting streak with 3 HRs and 10 RBIs
– Gattis is playing full time
So they have take care of some of the problems, but they are easing Lowrie back and I think he needs to play more often. Getting Carlos Gonzales has taken care of the Marisnick problem. I know with the DH that the bench is shorter, but there are times when Hinch just will not pull the trigger on a pinch hitter when it needs to happen.
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I hate to MM Q’Back, but Yes – it is the AL. And Yes, we don’t want to bruise egos. And Yes, there are stats. But in the 9th you need a contact hitter, and Yes Altuve let us down. But with Lowrie available to PH, Conger available for extra innings, you might as well send 3 guys to Fresno every night because they are glued to the bench. This is as silly as the NBA when the team wins and some guy bitches about his “minutes.”
(As I have shown multiple times, I am a big Altuve fan. He is a K less than 10% of the time. We accept others with 25- 32% K rates because they have power. Last night, we could have used a Texas leaguer. To me, in my opinion, this is why you don’t need everyone swinging for the fences at every plate appearance)
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But yesterday he pinch hit for Tucker(.266/.321/.468) with Carter(.181/.296/.381) and then put Marisnick in LF, thereby burning two players for one at-bat by a significantly worse player. That is the very definition of insane!
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1OP, I refuse to comment on Carter again. He apparently is a nice man, does not beat his dog, and is never seen on the police blotter. But to think he is the best we can do at 1B, DH, PH, pH, UofH, or any other place is delusional in my opinion.
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AC – to me it wasn’t about Altuve, it was about Castro. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out is when we should have had something happen. When there are two outs I am less concerned with how the guy gets out. Altuve could have grounded to second or struck out, the result is the same. If Castro had grounded to second instead of striking out, we are playing a 10th inning. We know Castro’s penchant for striking out. Hinch was rolling the dice that Castro’s recent success would have his confidence up and he was the guy for the spot. Reality struck again – and Castro does what he does so well when you need him to just put the ball in play, and that is don’t put the ball in play.
I’ll join you in the MMQB – Hinch should have sent Lowrie out there in place of Castro to tie that game up. Tolleson is a power pitcher. He averages 93 on his FB. He causes a 30% O-swing rate – he doesn’t even have to throw strikes to get guys to chase. Castro is a 30% O-swing rate guy himself. It was a terrible matchup for him to begin with. Now Lowrie isn’t a terribly better person for that spot – his Oswing is also 28% this year and K rate is also over 20% – but that’s been over a much smaller sample and his career numbers are much better – and not near Castro’s rates. Lowrie probably had a 10-15% chance better of putting the ball in play in that matchup. I haven’t even mentioned the BAA’s against for fastballs and sliders – Castro has hit the FB well this year, and been killed by sliders all year – while Lowrie is more even. Guess what statistically Tolleson best pitch is – you guessed it, slider.
Hinch only had Conger and Lowrie left. Lowrie goes out there, ties the game up, and gives Jose a chance to win it. If Jose fails, Conger enters the game in the 9 spot as the catcher and you take it to the 10th.
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The Astros started the season off really strong on the road, but it seems like the last two plus months they have been absolutely terrible on the road and nearly unbeatable at home. Anybody have any thoughts or ideas as to why that is?
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Astrofan – if you can hold off on that – there is a post coming out on that exact subject.
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Well hurry up. We need the answer very quickly.
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It is written but not yet posted.
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So it has been written. So it shall be done.
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OP, pinch hitting Carter for Tucker IS the definition of insane. Yet they’re obsessed with the righty, lefty match ups.
I’m all for matching up for the best chance to get a hit but replacing a pretty good hitter with a terrible hitter is beyond insane.
The big question here is what do you do with Carter, Gattis, Valbuena, and Rasmus. Can’t send em to Fresno. Can’t trade em.
That’s the REAL problem here
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Folks the reason Tucker was taken out of the game last night, was when he got hit in the arm…..it became so swollen he couldn’t bend his arm! I would not expect to see him in the lineup tonight, or maybe tomorrow.
There is NO EXCUSE for losing last night’s game…..no body could hit the dang ball.
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So, one of the important guys in our order gets hit by a pitch and has to be taken out of the game. Where have I heard of this idea before?
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Op….Tucker is listed as day to day. The only “good” news about last night was the Angels and Indians played 12 innings of no run ball, until the Indians scratched across 2 runs.
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I know we are up 3 games on the Angels and 6 on the Rangers, but the Rangers, to me, are the more dangerous team. Other than their bullpen they are a better team than LAA and they could still swing a trade for someone like K-Rod and really improve their team. I really don’t see LAA as a threat. This is why tonight, for me, is a very important game.
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After tonight, all we have to do is fly to the West Coast and play 4 games at Oakland then 2 at San Francisco. None of this is going to be easy. So now is the time for the true leaders of the team to arise. Hype and emotion is all well and good – but at this point in the year it is all about character. This next stretch of games should tell us which of our players – and which fans, for that matter – will persevere, tough it out, fight the good fight, and overcome, and which will wither and fade under the pressure.
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AMEN!! Let’s hope THEY aren’t pushing the panic button, we need ALL HANDS on deck. We can’t depend on the Angels to lose so we can stay ahead of them, because only a fool would buy into that.
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Straily was DFA’d this morning. Wojo called up.
The purging has begun.
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Not sure what Wojo will do, but it was the right move. I still think we’re going to see some new guys over the next couple of weeks too.
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from inside or outside the organization?
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rj, I would not be surprised if he did something outside.
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dave, as well as the team has performed so far and with the deadline additions i think we have a good shot at the post season and good run while there. springer coming back will be like a late season trade for a bat. so i am optimistic. but if he can find something that puts us over the edge toward a world series win, I’m all for it assuming it doesn’t cost too much.
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So y’all are speculating that there could be help coming from outside the organization. Any specific names being thrown around out there? I think Wojo is just a temporary bandade. He’s stuggled in Fresno so I anticipate him to do the same up on the big club. How is it that Arlington is our cryptonite? We need a win and I agree Tim that Arlington is a scarier team than the Angels right now. Go Kazmir!!!!
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I know it is just numbers – but Wojo’s ERA (5.42) at Fresno is 1.8 runs more than Straily’s was there. Hopefully there is something else they see there….
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I guess they hope Wojo will do better in a big park on the road than he has done at MMP. Unless he reverses his fly ball/ground ball ratio I just can’t see him ever being successful at the Juice Box.
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So, is Straily off the 40-man?
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I would’ve brought up Buchanan, personally.
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Very strange move. (Not the DFA). We now have 3 lefties to start? We now have Obie replacing Thatcher? Is Sipp also on his way out? Are we going to tandem the late innings?
So it appears Valbuena straight up for Fowler. I still do the deal. We had OF options, but nothing for 3rd at the time.
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My understanding is that if Straily does not get claimed and clears he will be re-assigned to Fresno.
Wojo is just up as a long man in the pen. He will not be making a start unless we have another situation like LMJ on Monday. Let’s hope that is not the case.
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Tim: Could they have just optioned him to Fresno? Or does this clear a 40 man slot for a trade or call up?
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This clears a 40-man slot. He goes thru waivers.
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JJO in his article said the Astros had to DFA Straily before sending him down.
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I agree. Wojo is just here in case they need a long man. We still have a full rotation without McCullers for the time being. Fiers is the 5th.
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yes. its kazmir, feldman, keuchel, mchugh, fiers for the next five starts, according to the astros website. then its a day off, two games at the giants, and a day off. then a 10 game homestand. hopefully the 2 off days allow the staff to get rested.
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I would like to ask a question. I couldn’t watch last night’s game. Did DDJ get a legit triple over Rasmus, or did we get burned by a shallow right field shift?
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hummed in my opinion. some of the blame on rasmus as well as the shift. ill put it this way, even with that shift springer catches that ball.
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I believe the way the announcers described what happened was in KC, the shallow RF worked to the advantage of the Astros but in a couple instances that was not the case in Arlington.
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how burned turned into hummed i don’t know….
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I just watched the play to double check what I thought I saw last night. Yes, Rasmus was playing shallow by design, but that ball was a line shot that short hopped the wall in the gap. Springer does not get to that ball, nor Jake. That ball was very well hit by a guy that does not usually show much power in that direction.
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dave you’re right. i went back and watched and it wasn’t the play i was thinking of. the one i was thinking of was a line drive straight at rasmus that froze him and then it looked like the ball may have been tipped off his glove as he reached up for it.
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Yeah, i think that other one was that ugly play from Monday night.
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The Angels just scored 3 in the bottom of the 9th to come back and beat the Indians. That should be more than enough motivation to go out and take care of business, gentlemen.
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Well, the Indians won two out of three from the Angels so we can’t complain. The Astros need to take care of their own business.
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Acrually, Cleveland blew the game Monday night, so Anaheim got them for 2/3.
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The games this week have been on FSW (FOX SOUTHWEST) so I’ve been able to see the games. Remember that for you guys who don’t have Root Sports. Just mute the sound and listen to the radio guys for the Astros!!!
OK you *RUBES* get with the program and score some runs!!! Tucker is available tonight!
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4 runs in the first inning, may be all the Rangers are going to need to win this game.
(((((( sigh ))))))
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Now Becky only 3 of those runs in the first – the other in the 2nd. A bad time fo Kazmir to melt down as bit.
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Get into their bullpen…..that’s our only chance.
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I’m sorry but you are down one run with the bases loaded and a lefty pitching. You can’t let Valbuena hit. And then with 2 outs you can’t let JFSF hit period.
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So FUSTRATING!!
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