Last time I saw Jeff Luhnow, he seemed to have two legs. That means he’s got two shoes. Well, one shoe dropped Thursday when the Astros traded Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham (ouch!) for Scott Kazmir.
Good starting pitching hasn’t really been Houston’s problem this year. Oh, the team’s ERA (3.96) among starters ranks 14th in MLB and 6th in the AL. Well, at the price of two prospects — one of which I fear the Astros will regret losing — this rotation is looking up. Kazmir and his 2.38 ERA will likely replace Vincent Velasquez in the rotation. That’ll allow Velasquez and Lance McCullers Jr. to rest their young arms down the stretch by taking turns in the bullpen.
It also gives the Astros the rotation of Dallas Keuchel, Kamzir, Collin McHugh, McCullers and Scott Feldman. That’s a playoff-bound rotation. Well, as long as that other shoe drops.
Preventing runs hasn’t been Houston’s overall problem. Overall, Houston’s team ERA of 3.54 ranks 9th in the majors and 4th in the AL. So, while adding Kazmir is nice — really nice, especially if Luhnow can extend him two or three years — the real problem the Astros have had this season hasn’t been preventing runs.
And that’s where that other shoe might come in
Worst Performers
We could pick from several stats here, but I like OPS. Anyone with an OPS over .750 is a very good player, and .700 is the cut off between those marginal contributors and those not making the grade. For example, Luis Valbuena (as of Thursday afternoon) had a .709 OPS and an oWAR of 1.2. Chris Carter had an OPS of .698 and an oWAR of 0.4. Marwin Gonzalez brings a .697 OPS and an oWAR of 0.5.
Of course, you have to figure in defense as well. Valbuena has an overall WAR of 1.2, MarGo brings a 0.8 and Carter’s overall WAR is -0.3. Defense matters.
Anyway, there’s more to it than OPS. This team has a lot of power, but I’ve seen a ton of solo homers lately. Homers are better when shared with a friend … or three.
But that means this team needs people who make contact, get on base, stop striking out like chicks dig it.
So, what hitter in this lineup needs to be replaced the most? Chris Carter (.190 BA, 16 HRs, 115 Ks in 290 AB with 43 RBIs and that .698 OPS), Luis Valbuena (.203 BA, .709 OPS, 19 HRs, 40 RBIs, 75 Ks and 301 ABs) or Jake Marisnick (.231 BA, .639 OPS, 12 SB, 5 HRs, 60 Ks and 216 ABs)? I would add the other two low performers, but I don’t see the Astros trading Jason Castro right now (the lowest OPS at .632 among qualifiers) or MarGo, who is the team’s super sub. Above Valbuena, the next lowest OPS is Gattis at .723. (His oWAR and WAR are both affected by his lack fielding fielding value as a DH.)
Help Begins at Home
The problem is, if you’re going to replace one of these poor performers, who are you replacing him with? Carter or Valbuena may see themselves replaced somewhat by Jed Lowrie when the injured “former shortstop” returns.
As for Marisnick, once George Springer returns, that solves that problem I’d suppose. Do the returns of Lowrie and Springer fill all the Astros’ offensive needs?
Do the Astros need to replace both Valbuena and Carter or just one? If you replace both Valbuena and Carter, does that change the very nature of the Astros’ offense? After all, this is a power offense. Removing two power hitters for a couple of on-base, singles hitters will take a lot of homers out of the lineup in favor of singles.
Looking Outside
Replacing both Carter and Valbuena probably requires looking outside of the organization for another trade. For that other shoe. If replacing Carter or Valbuena from the outside is the goal, we’re not looking at Carlos Gomez. Ben Zobrist is probably a bit expensive. Another option might be Atlanta’s utility player Kelly Johnson.
And Now For Something Completely Different
Twice in Thursday night’s game the Astros ran themselves out of a run. Jose Altuve getting caught at third came before two straight walks then a ground out. If the Astros avoid a double play on that ground out, Altuve scores. Later, MarGo gets caught stretching a double into a triple. Correa followed with a double, and there’s another run missed.
Do the Astros need better base coaching? Do some baserunners — even the best ones like Altuve — need an occasional stop sign?
About That Rotation
Keuchel, Kazmir, McHugh, McCullers, Feldman. Is this the best rotation in baseball? Other than Feldman, I expect to win every night with these guys. Even McHugh, who hasn’t been dominant, has an ERA 2.85 in his last seven starts. He’s already tied last season’s win total. He actually compares pretty well to Keuchel who, in his last seven, is also 5-2 with a 2.52 ERA. Add Kazmir and McCullers, who both have sub-3.00 ERAs, and this is a dominant rotation.
A Few More Things To Consider
1. McCullers looked a little rusty Thursday night. Does sitting these guys seem counterproductive?
2. I love me some Preston Tucker, but that ball he misjudged was horrible. Does this make you rethink Jake Marisnick’s value, even if it’s just as a defensive replacement?
3. We’re not even past the trade deadline, but it’s not too early to start looking at Sept. 1. Should the Astros add a lot of players when rosters expand, or should they keep it to a minimum since they will probably be in a playoff race? If Luhnow calls up players, who is on your short list? Tony Kemp? Joe Sclafani? Domingo Santana? Luis Cruz? Chris Devenski?
4. By the end of Sunday’s game, the Astros will have played 100 games. So far, the Astros have won 54 games, and could be as good as 57-43 or as low as 54-46. What’s your over/under for 100 games?
5. Anything else you want to discuss. After all, it’s the weekend, and this blog is free.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
153 responses to “Free Blog Weekend: One shoe has dropped …”
Good thoughts and good questions, Brian. Before we trade any more of our studs in the minors, I would like to see Joe Sclafani be given a chance at 3B, Matt Duffy given a shot at 1B, Tony Kemp given a chance at both LF and CF, and Tyler Heineman given a chance behind the dish. All that would, of course, be after the expansion of rosters.
I personally have seen all of Chris Carter’s horribleness I can stomach. When either he – or Castro or Marisnick for that matter – come to the on-deck circle I check social media until its over. Their at-bats are just excruciating to watch. Even Carter’s rare home runs are boring. It’s like someone felt sorry for the kid who was badly overmatched on the playground and let him hit a home run off a wiffle ball pitch to make him feel better about himself.
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Yeah, every Carter AB, I hear a sad trombone in my head.
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Even when rosters expand you cannot bring anyone up who is not on the 40 man roster. None of those guys you mention are or are likely to be on the 40 man in September.
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I feel as though the terrible base running is an attempt to make us forget about the strikeout woes!
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Like when women wear earrings that pinch to distract from their uncomfortable shoes.
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All good points but when I went to bed last night Altuve a walk off homer, 4-5, a sweep of the Red Sox and a game out of first, I love you all but man , whats the saying about paralysis by over analysis? I liked the aggressiveness of both Altuve and Margo,keep it up. Tucker was never slated to be a gold glove a DH occasional LF/RF.
From what I can read in a Box score, Nottingham was hitting the ball in A and High A, him another 600 guys, why there called prospects, We now have Double K’s pitching in the stretch run !
I Love JFSM, but like I said the other day he can’t hit. To bad it not LL he could play CF and then we could hit for him every time in the order, He needs to go down bring Domingo back up.
Now lets win tonight! A W is a W.
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I hated the aggressiveness by Marwin because he dogged it out of the box. He jogged to first and celebrated with a raised fist when the ball got over the outfielder…and then started running. Given his below average speed (eyeball test, but I’d be happy to race him to prove it if he would like) it was a poor decision to try to stretch it into a triple. With the play in front of him he had to make the decision as well – can’t put that one on Pettis.
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Last night, Altuve attempted to take a base on three balls in the dirt and made it on two of them, the two at second base. He got thrown out at 3B so maybe he just needs to be more selective advancing to 3B, a much shorter throw for the catcher. Marwin getting thrown out was all on Marwin. He came out of the box running slow which meant that he was two steps behind to start with when he suddenly decided to try for a triple. A runner who is not fast should go for second like there is no tomorrow, if he’s going to end up trying for 3. Basic high school baseball savvy.
Right now the Astros have 12 pitchers on the roster and need to add Kazmir. They have six infielders and four outfielders, but they are going to need relievers in KC and they used a lot of bullpen guys last night and Kasmir puts six starters on the roster. Seems to me they are going to need to send an infielder back to the minors today, add Lowrie next week and send a pitcher down for him when their rotation gets settled.
This is where the big strikeout/no field guys start to hurt you. We have two big guys who can only play 1B and I guy who can only DH.
I would send Singleton back to Fresno. He doesn’t lose his money getting sent down.
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You know OP1, Hinch has obviously created an atmosphere where he wants guys to be aggressive on the bases. That said, we all know the rule about guys getting thrown out at third. We might well have botched a couple of big innings by losing Altuve and Marwin over there last night. But I’m not sure if we can lay all the blame on Marwin for trying to stretch. Yep, I noticed that he was not hustling out on the box. But once he’s getting ready to round second, he should be having a visual conversation with his third base coach. If things are working right, he either gets sent over to third or told to stay where he is. I’m really not sure if our third base coach is very good at directing traffic. Too many ongoing issues.
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You’re right, of course. What I was saying was that it was a very close play at third and if he had not started off trotting it would have been an easy triple.
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Jacob Nottingham? Really? I will be surprised if the guy is ever a starting catcher in the minors.
For a blog site so worried about batting average and strike out rates, he has not been very good at them. Yes, I know this year he has been, at least average wise. He is still a career .267 guy at low minors while maintaining at least 20% K rates at every level. As he has progressed his walk rates are taking a major slide. This guy isn’t even on the list of top 200 prospects. Some scouts don’t even project him to be a catcher when all is said and done. That top 200 list, that isn’t dumb ol prospect hating Steven, that’s the “smart” people making those lists.
Now some people may find the quoting of numbers that don’t fit the narrative they want to buy that all our minor leaguers are potential superstars, are that some “smart” people wrote an article stating that Oakland just got a good prospect, makes me baseball dumb. Nottingham reminds me of Marisnick. Some success at a very low level, but some indicators that suggest that as he progresses and faces better pitching he will struggle. He may overcome that. My guess is he won’t.
We KNOW what Kazmir is going to do. Well, honestly we don’t. He has pitched over his depth the last season and a half. It will be interesting to see if the push in adrenaline that happens after a trade for a player, and playing for the contract, gives him a great a second half for us. He is unpredictable – which is why he was pitching for a different Houston organization just a few years ago.
I don’t dislike all our prospects. We have two in the top 50 for BA, Appel and Phillips. I like them both. I like Reed more than Phillips, but I think both are going to be contributors at the big league level, and both have the makings of being all stars. Appel, I think is overrated, but might still make the back end of a rotation. He is like most minor league pitchers – they all have an arm, every one of them, but they are missing something in command that makes them great. He may find it though. I also like Kemp, but I don’t like Kemp playing LF or 3B. I don’t know if defensively he handles CF. He is a small guy. I don’t know how his arm projects. Watching him in the futures game, I didn’t realize how small. Second is kind of taken.
There are two or three others that will make it. I don’t know that Sclafani is one one of them. Maybe he is a gamer, a guy that plays beyond the physical, a grinder. It’s apparent the Astros coaching staff at AAA doesn’t think so. Are you “smarter” than they are?
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Nottingham puzzles me. He wasn’t very good in 2014. This year, as a 20 year old, he has flourished at the plate. Until I see half a season of dominance at AA I won’t worry about his loss…and he has a ways to go to get there. I was a big Mengden fan though…
I thought Kemp was a wasted pick. This is partially an anti-Vanderbilt bias I have…but over recent years I have come to cover some of that school’s players…like Gray and Price. I am ready to admit I was wrong on Kemp – he may not elevate his ceiling enough to be a MLB starter…but I won’t bet against him. The biggest mistake a player can make is to play against their strengths trying to fit into the role someone else wants them to be. Kemp plays to his strengths.
Sclafani looks to me like a non-prospect, organizational depth guy. He could likely fill the Marwin G role and will be a possible loss this winter if not protected. I wonder what Luhnow really plans to do at this point…
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It seems that your comments are dead wrong.
*Nottingham was # 71 in John Sickels’ Top 75 midseason prospects list, which came out this week and he said if his scouting reports come back verifying Nottingham’s numbers at the end of the season, that Nottingham would move up a lot on his list.
Nottingham’s rise is similar to Phillips’s rise last year and Phillips is absolutely off the table now because of it.
I don’t have a problem with this web site being “so worried about batting averages and strike out rates”. What’s that comment supposed to mean?
Maybe rather than throwing out innuendos about our ability to look objectively at a trade you need to look closer at Nottingham’s year. It’s pretty spectacular. and if he keeps it up, he could be a real good 1B or DH for sure, even forgetting about his catching ability.
I feel like you are speaking down to us and I, for one, take offense to that tone and I think my view or anyone else’s view of our prospects is equal to yours.
If you think Nottingham is overblown, fine. But leave the lectures about this blog out of it.
It doesn’t matter whether you think coaches are smarter than us. What matters is that our opinions are respected by our fellow bloggers.
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What OP said!
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Well, that’s fine. I don’t disagree with what you said. I’m about done with Bill constantly attacking my position on prospects. I very rarely point anyone’s opinions out but share my own. As soon as I do here is Bill telling me I just think I am smart and apparently don’t know much about baseball since I don’t love all prospects. As far as offense taking, you will have to work that one out yourself. Welcome to the blogosphere.
His BABIP is .385. Noone repeats BABIPs like that. My point on the love for non strikeout isn’t that I don’t share it, because I do. I’ve said so many times. It’s that Nottingham strikes out. Alot for A ball. Now in Lancaster he didn’t. It was only 76 plate appearances, and it was the California league where most pitchers have sticker shock. Before Lancaster he has a history of striking out more at that level than the K man himself Carter at those same levels. If a guy strikes out 20% at A ball, he will probably strike out 25% at AA, 27% at AAA, and close to 30 in the bigs. He will have to maintain a .500 BABIP if he wants to be a great hitter. This was the very point as to why I preached and preached about signing Rasmus being our worst mistake of the offseason. I was wrong because despite striking out he was a big part of that winning streak that put us on top – but since we are seeing what happens with Rasmus long term.
I will give that Nottingham is younger than Carter was at the same levels. That counts for something. So he is graded as a better prospect than Carter was.
I can’t see all the lists. If he made one list, he is a fringe prospect. Fringe guys usually end up 27 year old career minor leaguers. I can take every 20 year old that had 25% K rates at rookie ball – put them all in a room, probably 1000 of them – ask them to raise their hands as to how many become valuable assets in baseball, much less all stars – well, there won’t be a lot of hands up. I will repeat, what I don’t understand is you all understand the value of not striking out, you say it almost everyday in our joint lament for Carter and Singleton and Valbuena and Marisnick – yet you – maybe not you particularly – but some of them, lament the loss of another guy on that same track.
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And noone said you aren’t respected on the blog. You are perhaps the most respected. I like to think my opinions are as well. I don’t think the coaches are smarter than you, I know they are. I also know they are smarter than me. It’s why we are sitting behind keyboards and they are out there instructing 23 year olds how to play the game.
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Can you think of any better time for Marwin Gonzalez to get hot at the plate than in a pennant race in July with Lowrie still on rehab assignment? He put some wood on the ball last night. He went into a slump in mid June but has really come back, with two sore ankles, to boot.
Did you see what I did there?
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And his ankel’s must have been sore from getting hit twice a couple of days ago!!!
Marwin has never been a fast runner, so I’m cutting him some slack!!
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Steven, when you state “some people,” I think we all think you’re talking down to us. Look, I don’t mind you disagreeing with me. And if you don’t like Nottingham, that’s your business. But until someone invents a sarcasm font, word choice is crucial. Your word choice just rubbed me (and OldPro apparently) the wrong way.
No harm done.
I hope Nottingham turns into the next … Oh, who was the “big catching prospect” before we drafted Castro? … anyway, I hope he turns into that guy.
And I hope Kazmir leads us to the World Series. That said, I’m always leery of rentals. If you don’t win it all, what was the point?
I still hear people praising the Randy Johnson trade. Great. We got 2 stud months and lost a lot of value. To me, I don’t think we did that this time, but if Nottjngham turns into Mike Piazza-lite, we blew it if Houston doesn’t get a ring out of this deal.
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Fair enough. I don’t see Nottingham turning into Piazza-lite. Piazza had a 14% K rate in the majors lifetime. Nottingham is well into the 20’s as a minor leaguer at a low level.
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Steven, Nottingham’s K rate is 21.2% for his minor league career, but it is 18.01% for this season at higher levels. So. his K rate is actually coming down as he moves up, the opposite of what you are saying.
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I explained that yesterday, he has some of his at bats at Lancaster. The effect isn’t ust average/HR/RBI, its general sticker shock to pitchers. He has a low enough number of plate appearances in his career that the 80 PA’s he has in the Cal league at 13% are a great help to that lifetime percentage. When he hits AA, his number will grow to match his earlier minor numbers, if not worse.
My belief is that his BABIP is the reason his average is where it is. If he continues at AA to drive his K percentage below 20, he won’t rely on BABIP to be decent or even good, and he will prove me wrong. We won’t know for a year at least.
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In response to the base running, Margo was thrown out between home and 1st by not going all out. Ricky Henderson was thrown out 335 times. So there will be some times that we wished Altuve had waited. But he has to be aggressive. That’s his game.
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I’m not at all concerned about losing Nottingham. He might end up being a heck of a hitter. But at 20, he’s already a big kid at 230. That translates into 250 plus in a few years. If he makes the leap, Nottingham is a future DH and we will be able to find a guy in house for that role, like a Tucker.
Looking outside? Luhnow mentioned last night during the broadcast that he might even get another starter if the deal made sense. I’d still like more pen help. And a real first baseman.
McCullers and Velasquez have pitched very well, especially considering the fact that they have not had the luxury of getting into an every five day groove. Velasquez especially deserves extra credit to be able to pick up where he left off and keep us in the game each time out.
Brian, you like OPS, so really, how can you justify keeping a guy on the 25 man for defensive purposes who has an OPS below .500 since the end of April? If my memory serves me correctly, I think Jake has three singles, a double and a triple this month. Heck, Altuve had four hits last night alone. Give Jake a chance try and figure out how to hit. In Fresno. And then bring him back to do what he does well when the rosters expand.
Speaking of an expanded roster, things will be different this year. This is a team that we now expect to be in a pennant race. Our line up won’t be changing as much. Any guy brought up will not get much playing time. So give me defensive replacements, a good pinch runner, another pinch hitter and a couple of arms to use out of the pen when we are not in a game.
This is getting to be a bunch of fun as we approach our first stretch run in a decade. I only have so many decades left.
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Hey, Dave, I was just asking about Marisnick, not advocating. But come September, a base-stealing defensive gem might be handy on the bench. That said, once Springer is back, Jake is the odd man out in the outfield to me.
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Brian, we agree. But I would send Jake down now. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why both Jake and Hoes are here and Santana remains in Fresno.
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I am in agreement with getting a 1B and bullpen piece, preferably a flamethrower. If the Astros do this, with Lowrie coming back soon, I like our chances to, at the very least, earn a wild card spot. It has been reported that Luhnow is seeking a corner OFer along with a flamethrower. Why the corner OFer? We have some depth there, but no depth at 1B (I don’t want to bring up Reed now and have his major league debut be in a pennant race).
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I haven’t read the rest of the comments below, but didn’t we basically get VV as the flamethrower as a side benefit to the Kazmir pickup? Bonus!
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I am talking more about an experienced flamethrower.
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Brian, your question #3 is so interesting. I went back and looked at the 2012 draft and the college players taken in that draft, who are still in our minors is a big list. (Phillips was a prep guy so he has another year of protection)
On the other hand, college guys in the 2013 draft are not going to be Rule V eligible until 2016. As bad as I want Kemp to be given a shot this year, Luhnow may decide to keep him and Appel off the 40-man until after the rule V in December because he has so many others from 2012 and beyond that he has to make a decision on this year. There are a lot of guys he will want to protect or even move in a trade, rather than lose them.
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On to the rest of the story.
I would like to see Carter replaced. Valbuena also – assuming you can find one. I think going by what Luhnow has said – we will see Lowrie at 3B 4 nights a week and Valbuena and Carter splitting time. I don’t know what this means for Singleton, maybe another month in Fresno before coming back for roster expansion? I don’t think Carter is on the roster after this season. He is already at 4 mil, and despite the BA has hit enough HR to probably at least maintain that 4 in arby again, but the Astros would be smart not to pay it. At least Valbuena is still doing it cheap.
Marisnick probably does get replaced by Springer. Just can’t have a guy going ofer over and over and over, with the occasional 1 for 3, no matter how good his defense is. It’s too bad, he does a lot of the little things well, and he plays with such positive emtion when he is playing well.
There is definitely something to skipping starts on guys that takes them out of rhythm. McCullers is also so young that he is, even if the end results of games is good for him, going to give you fits on particular pitches in certain spots.
If we want Tucker’s bat in the lineup, it’s going to come with the occasional ball he doesn’t get to that a better fielder would have. Defensive replacements are great, but sometimes that ball happens in the 3rd, not the 8th inning.
Call up the entire 40 man, but like Dave said, I wouldn’t worry too much about who does, because we will be in a pennant race, hopefully. The lineup should get set when Springer and Lowrie gets back, and not shuffled around a lot, they won’t see many at bats anyway.
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Lets assume this was an endorsement for Tyler Heineman and opposed to a dump of Nottingham.
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I like it 45 glass half full. Or maybe they think we can find a catcher next year, and make a run this year. I like it “bird in the hand” Just play Conger Basher more, Valbuena and Margo split 3rd, Lowrie at 1st, platoon DH Gattis and Tucker, Tuckk
er some left with Santana, Rasmus In CF Kaline in RF BAM. Carter HMMM DL
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I’m hoping Lowrie is healthy enough to be in the lineup almost every day platooning with Carter and Valbuena. At one time I was a strong advocate of adding Kemp to the 40 man and sending Marisnick back to Fresno but I’ve cooled to the idea. One of the repercussions of Springer’s injury was that we had to bring Jake back off the DL to play CF. If Springer doesn’t go down you could have left Jake at Fresno on an extended rehab assignment and really work on pitch selection and approach. OJT at the MLB level is pretty tough.
Lunhow has intimated he wants a flamethrower for the bullpen. Might he look no further than VV? Don’t know how resilient his arm would be for short stints but if used judiciously his kind of heat would play well in late inning situations.
I think Singleton is dead weight, even more so than Carter who is at least competent defensively. Kind of hoping he is the odd man out when Kazmir is activated and then Hernandez given DFA or moved when Lowrie returns.
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I completely agree that Carter is a better option than Big Jon. I also think Singleton is dead weight. His trade value is very low now, but some team may be enticed by his minor league numbers and take him as part of a package of prospects, but he won’t be the main piece in any trade, in my opinion.
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If anyone cares, looks like Alex Presley cleared waivers and is back at Fresno.
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And spending that $1 million with glee!
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I think they will be at 56-44 after 100 games and back up to 12 over 500
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And in order to offend EVERYONE. I miss Bopert. And there are others on here that disagree with my opinions. I never learned anything from someone that always agrees with me. That being said, we are mostly expressing an opinion. We are not arguing which is the best way to cure cancer. There is plenty of room for a “difference of opinion.”
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i miss bopper like i miss diarrhea
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bopert i hate spell check
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After all his comments, I asked him if was going to be man enough to admit he was wrong when the Astros became winners. He never answered, but I think we got our answer.
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Reports are that L J Hoes optioned to Fresno to make room for Kazmir. Only gives us three real outfielders. Why not Singleton?
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Is there a trade in the wind????
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Indeed.
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Children! Children! Love one another as Chip, Dan P and Brian T love you.
Oh well – baseball thoughts:
– Last night I had no problem with the Altuve out at 3rd (so close), had problems with MarGo dogging out of the batter’s box (but otherwise love how he has been stroking the ball lately) and did have a problem with Gattis getting picked clean off first base (I mean he isn’t going to be stealing – right?)
– I do have problems when they are thrown out by 20 feet at home.
– I have less problem with Preston Tucker totally misjudging one line drive right at him than I do with JFSF having a BA under .150 and an OPS under .500 for the last two months (and not a whole lot better in the month before that).
– McCullers looked like he has looked a lot early in games – not quite zoned in
– In a playoff race I love having a big bench so pinch runners, defensive subs and situation relievers are plentiful and available.
– I pick 56-44 for the record after Sunday because Feldman is pitching Saturday.
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Kazmir pitched a real good game against the Royals earlier in the year during that infamous series between the A’s and KC where there were bench clearing incidents and guys throwing at each other. He gave up 6 hits and 2 runs in 7.1 innings and the bullpen lost the game.
I would love a win tonight as it might really relax the team and allow them to play loose over the weekend. Having Kazmir win his first game would be awesome.
Hoes, indeed, was optioned. Our outfield is so weak now. It’s hard to believe we would allow ourselves to go down to 3 outfielders. What if Gattis is the DH? Can he be moved to the outfield in case of injury if he is already the DH?
Marwin’s feet must be OK if he is now the fourth outfielder. Isn’t this the team that knocked our RF out for 6 to 8 weeks with a pitch?
I know one thing, if I needed an outfielder from the players on this team, I would be willing to bet Carlos Correa has the baseball savvy to walk out there tomorrow and be one of the best outfielders on the team.
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bopert was a bit of a reverse homer, in that he quit supporting the Stros as soon as they started winning. But indeed, I enjoyed the banter, much like from that guy Lowell from a couple of years back. Lowell was a bit over the top though.
It’s summer now, hot, games mean more each time out, we’ll see benches emptying more frequently and things will get testy here from time to time at Chipalatta. Remember, we can throw inside, but not above the waist!
We’re going to need four outfielders. I’m hoping that means Domingo gets a call.
I think I’ve decided that Luhnow should deal for Adam Lind. He’d fill the gap we need filled until one of our in house guys can take over first.
Carlos Correa is 20 years old and might be the best shortstop on the planet.
Guthrie is being had tonight. God Bless Tucker. And Jake too. Big steal of third just now to set up run three. Even Castro has hit a couple of balls on the button.
Pettit again. It was not close. Wouldn’t it be nicer to have second and third with one out and Correa coming up?
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Dh can move to field, but then the pitcher has to hit in the spot of the lineup previously held by the fielder which the dh replaced.
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TY
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Jed Lowrie gets the start tonight at 3rd for CC. Still looking for his first hit. How bout a cycle, Jed!
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No cycle, but 2-3 with a double. Good job, Jed.
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My fantasy hope is that Singleton is part of a package and they had to keep him on the big club pending a deal and when he’s gone Santana and/or Kemp get a call.
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* McCullers looked a little rusty Thursday night. Does sitting these guys seem counterproductive? *
You hit the nail on the head, Brian. Lance really did struggle with both command and control last night, both of which are uncharacteristic for him. Obviously getting off rhythm in his routine did not help him. But he kept fighting, and that was good to see. I think that in the long run it actually does high level talents like McCullers good to struggle in a game or two, simply because he in particular is so competitive it will just make him work harder. He does not just want to pitch, or even win games – he wants to dominate. He has been dominant all his life. It will be very interesting to see how he bounces back next time.
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And, in all fairness, I suppose we should probably note that the Red Sox power guys put some pretty good licks on several of our pitchers last night. It was not just a bad night for Lance. Ortiz doubled off of Lance, but he homered off of Will Harris. Napoli doubled and homered off of Lance, but he also crushed that ball off of Gregorson that froze Preston Tucker and resulted in a double. Boston did not want to get swept, and their bats finally just woke up. Fortunately, we had the Altuve Algorithm and the Margo Cargo working for us, despite getting O-fers from five out of our nine starters – Tucker, Carter, Conger, Hoes, and Marisnick.
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Altuve out at home. Yep, that’s the crap base running I’m talking about. Never should have been sent.
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Loving watching Kazmir enjoy the defense behind him. He should fit in really well. I do notice he’s getting a lot of his outs by way of fly ball, however [so far, 9 fly outs to 1 ground out]. All you Kazmir followers, Is that a career trend for him?
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His career ratio is 1 to 1 GO/FO. But the last three years he has been above on groundouts, with each successive year improving.
Tonight he’s pounding the zone and with that big outfield is just letting them fly out. Very low pitch count thru 4.
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Whatever he’s doing, it’s working. I like it!
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I’m with BT. Send Altuve if it is the top of the 8th or 9th in a tie game with 3 hits. But when you are killing the pitches, no reason to give away an out. Hope we don’t need the 5th run.
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Qualls is such a riddle wrapped up in an enigma. Tonight he could not throw a straight pitch if his life depended on it. Every pitch had a big wrinkle in it. Looked like he was 10 years younger.
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KC fans..stuff THIS ballot. We just beat your team.
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Astros shut out the Royals. Kazmir was terrific.
Jed Lowrie was 2 for 3 with a double and an RBI tonight for CC
David Paulino with 7 shutout innings for QC tonight in a 1-0 QC win.
Tucker proving more and more that he can hit major league pitching.
Astros a half a game behind LAA pending tonight’s Angels outcome.
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Go Rangers!
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Life is good, kasmir shuts them out jed gets the hits we will need *very* sòon,
Marisnick was a one man show in center!! Houston we have us a very good team!!
tucker is hitting homeruns , and I’ll forgive his left field transgressions.
yep……life is good!!
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Angels lose, Angels lose! Just could not force myself to say Rangers w@#. Tied for first and going up. Angels without Freese and us with Lowrie coming back is a nice trend.
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Great game, great trade.
In answer to original questions, I would keep Valbuenna and Marisnick, get rid of Carter and Singleton, not worry too much about Tucker’s fielding, ( hey, I grew up with Yogi, Norm Siebern, and occasionally Elston Howard in left), and actually love the aggressive base running, even if it doesn’t always work. It works often enough—- and it produces sufficient anxiety in the opposing team that it’s worth it. Makes us anxious as well, but i’m sure their metrics examine base running too.
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Roger: I like aggressive base running too but one must remember who the opponent is. Kansas City is one of the best defensive teams in the league and I think it is more likely than not that they will execute correctly. That’s one big reason they have the best record in the league. At this point in the season teams have worked out a lot of kinks and the poor execution required to score a run in that particular situation is not likely and the 3B coach needs to have that in the forefront of his mind. With Correa coming up it makes even less sense. Take a chance if you’re down in the order with unreliable hitters coming up but not when you’re #3 hitter is in the on deck circle.
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Drbill. I agree to some extent. But, I think we have to accept that management approves of what Pettis is doing, against KC or anyone else, or they would have simply ordered him to stop sending runners in these situations. They haven’t—-I think.
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Our favorite little prospect, Tony Kemp, is struggling in Fresno. His batting average is down to .265. I think we should tap the brakes on any discussion of calling him up. I think Santana, among others, are more worthy, at this time..
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I’m still scratching my head over Hoes being sent down instead of Singleton. When Lowrie comes back that’s another infielder so Singleton almost has to go. Seems like it would be wise to trim a pitcher as well and bring up Santana. An outfield foursome of Santana, Marisnick, Rasmus and Tucker would make me a lot more comfortable. A late inning defensive alignment of Rasmus, Marisnick and Santana would probably make the pitchers happy as well. We were really spoiled defensively with the Rasmus/Marisnick/Springer OF.
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I think you answered your own question. Singleton goes down when Lowrie comes up. With Marwin and Carter having some aches and pains they probably felt it was better to keep Singleton up…allowing a longer look…so that there would be at least 4 infielders at “full” health on the roster.
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Can’t wait for Lowrie, then Springer and frigging Kazmir love that trade. I Hope Nottingham someday has a shot at a good MLB career, but pretty sure he doesn’t shut out KC last night.. GO STROS
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I don’t like what I am about to say, but for the time beng if they need another OF in a game it would be Gattis or Carter going to LF. That sound you heard was me and every Astros’ pitcher cringing.
Qualls looks effective again and that is a good thing as Sipp and Harris have been a lot more hittable lately.
What kind of role does Velasquez get in the bullpen? I’m guessing as a 7th inning type somewhere in the mix.
I hope Feldman keeps them in it today. They really need him to be a solid contributor and a change of pace between the two leftys.
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If it helps any, MarGo can play outfield better than either Gattis or Carter.
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Right! VV is the bullpen flamethrower “acquired” in the Kazmir deal. Bonus!
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Dan, their thinking has to be along the lines of getting through this weekend series with KC with as much help in the bullpen as possible. KC is a good hitting team from top to bottom and has a great bullpen that we would need to match up with in a tight game.
We have an off day on Monday, which gives the team a rested bullpen for the Angels’ series starting Tuesday. The team might make a move on Monday to get another OFer on the field and trim a pitcher.
One has to believe that the Astros are concerned about their LOOGY situation. You have one lefty in the pen and he comes in and walks his target player right off the bat and immediately threatens the shutout and the win. That can’t happen, but it did and Sipp’s negative regression from what he surprisingly showed last season could be a buttbiter in this pennant race. Sipp has not been a dependable reliever for much of this season.
The problem with Roberto in the bullpen is that the team does not seem to trust his stuff in a tight game and it could be possible that the Astros might use the Kazmir acquisition and the move of Velasquez to the bullpen to DFA Roberto soon, since Vince could be a long reliever and a short reliever. The closer we get to September, the less the team needs a long reliever in the pen that they are hesitant to use in save or hold situations. The more Luis Cruz pitches like he has lately, the higher the chances the Astros go looking for a major league reliever and gives Cruz’s 40-man spot to him. Cruz has been really hammered lately, with only a .312 BABIP against him.
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I looked Cruz up again because it didn’t look right, but it is. In Cruz’s last 20 innings he has allowed 25 hits and 13 walks. The BA against him during that time is .316 and the BABIP against him is only .328. It’s not bad luck. The problem is: Cruz has taken up a 40-man spot on our roster for two years, has never been brought up to pitch and his numbers keep getting worse.
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Thinking of future. I see Tucker (as I think others do) as a replacement for Gattis. He’s not great on defense but I think better than Gattis. The outfield has all sorts of possibilities upon Springer’s return. Marisnick could always be a late inning defensive replacement. With Santana and others waiting in the wings I don’t see Rasmus (8MM) here next year. Got to get a 1st and 3rd baseman and catcher. I would concentrate on that for the off season. Lowrie or Margo is your super sub.
Not sure but I don’t see Feldman here. He’s committed through next year for 8MM but maybe we can package him away. Carter and Valbuena are 4.2MM and Castro is at 4MM. We’ve got to have some alternatives to them down on the farm. We’ll need the $ to sign Kazmir and I’d try to get Keuchel to a long term deal (5 years). Nothing wrong with spending the $ but let’s do it wisely. So far I give the management a B+.
In the meantime, it’s sure been a fun season up to this point. Hope it continues.
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One of the things the Astros might be looking at with Feldman is that he was a very good pitcher last year in August and September. and that is not a fluke. Throughout his career Feldman has been a much better pitcher in August and September than in June or July. He seems to wear down in the summer and then catch his second wind and pitch well in the stretch run. We’ll see.
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Which makes Hernandez redundant, especially with VV in the pen. Today’s game could really be a boost if Feldman gives us 7 good innings. Worried a little though about how we will do against a lefty with Rasmus and Tucker in the lineup. Expect we’ll see Marwin at 3B and Carter at 1B. Would actually prefer Castro behind the plate since he hits LHP better than Conger.
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One of my big problems with Tucker vs. Gattis is that Tucker just isn’t the triples hitter Oso Blanco is. Otherwise Tucker would have hit for the cycle last night. I’m very disappointed in Tucker.
(Comment made with tongue firmly planted in cheek.)
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Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk. Gattis’s triples has to be one of the all time weird stats.
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According to Spotrac, the Astros addition of Kazmir brings their 2015 payroll obligations to $75.468 million, not counting any further additions or subtractions.
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Nottingham slides into the #5 spot and Mengden into the #13 spot in the A’s top 30 prospect list.
The two players who move into our top 30 list are Paulino and Bostick.
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Gotta feel like both those guys would be top ten prospects in most systems at the end of the year
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Does anyone else have the feeling that the Astros may have a surprise addition coming up? Maybe it’s because of the early Kazmir move, or just because he helped us shut out the best team in the AL the day after we got him. But I have a feeling that something is up. If the Astros can get a real good pitcher for two prospects in High A, and he helps right away, what might they get if they bit the bullet and traded a real high prospect to acquire a real good bat to add to Altuve, Springer, Tucker, Correa, Lowrie, and Gattis for the stretch run. A real good bat to put into the lineup and replace a real bad bat. Maybe get a LH bat. or switch hitter.
Nah, that’s probably not gonna happen. But there is a lot of time left before the 31st, and, so far, only one team who was a buyer has proven they will really buy, and that’s Houston.
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well i think we can safely say this much op. if we do trade for a reliable power bat, it makes us a legitimate playoff team. I’m with you, i strongly suspect another trade. now maybe that trade turns out to be a flamethrower for the bullpen rather than a bat, but something is in the works seems like. maybe vv becomes our bullpen flamethrower because feldman pitches well in the rotation. its nice to have options, have 55 wins and be smack dab in the middle of a pennant race on july 25th. here’s hoping for the bat.
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Adam Lind.
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Op…..the Astros are sending a scout to watch Hamel’s throw today, if that answers your question of “if somethings up”. Personally I don’t want a guy who looks down on an organization, because he thinks it would be beneath him to play here. Shove it Hamel’s I hope you get traded to the worst team in baseball.
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In some ways he’s already on the worst team in baseball, Becky. 🙂
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Well, to give credit where credit is due. Hamels’ pitched pretty well today for whoever was there to scout him.
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Becky, you may have heard the expression “blowing smoke up…….”. Well, the Astros may have a scout in Philly today, but Philly has 24 other players on that team. My guess is that the Astros might quietly have two scouts in Colorado to watch the Reds and the Rockies, while everybody else is concentrating on Cooperstown. Colorado is where the real sellers are that have “the real goods” to sell.
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Milwaukee is in Arizona and Miami is in San Diego. I’m just saying!
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You are soooo right mr. Bill, I hope the Phillies end up keeping him, and paying him millions to pitch on a crappy team. If I’m Jeff luhnow I’d ask the Padres what they want for Tyler Ross. And I’m hoping for an Adam Lind trade this week. Conger catching Feldman tonight, and marwin is at 3rd for tonight’s game.
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Agreed😊😊
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Congratulations to Cole Hamels.
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Adam Lind would be super. He is a rental, so he is not going to cost one of your top prospects and he already comes with his own beard. Perfect!
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Lind was pulled out of the game tonight with back spasms. This could hurt his trade value, depending on the extent of the injury.
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Bad timing.
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Wow
..horrible play by tucker there
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No harm done, but yeah it was not what you want your left fielder to do.
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Oh my lord!!!! What a short stop we have!!!! Correa is *the* Best!!!
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Somebody had to win……….dang good game. Feldman pitched a great game.
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Tough game. Great job by Feldman. We keep losing guys on the bases. This is the kind of game where you’ve got to do the little stuff flawlessly.
Just noticed that Leo Heras was promoted from CC earlier in the week. His stats in Corpus were unremarkable. No youngster either. He’s starting at second tonight. Of course that means poor Joe is back on the bench, in spite of the fact that he’s quietly coaxed his average up to .286, hitting .382 over his last ten starts. If Sclafani ever gets a real chance somewhere, he’ll have dealt with a whole load of crap along the way. I wouldn’t bet against him.
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I have not seen Heras play anywhere but outfield since he’s been with the Astros. That is weird.
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Rangers doing their part to bring a World Series to the Lone Star State. Beat those Halos!
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That game was pretty typical of the offense we’ve had all year. The people who usually hit did hit and the people who usually don’t hit didn’t.
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Here is that hot July we have been promised from/concerning Chris Carter:
Last 7 games: 19 plate appearances; 2 hits, 1 BB, 1 HR, 3Ks; BA.111, OBP .158, SLG .278.
Last 3 games: 9 plate appearances: 0 hits, 0 BBs, 0 HRs, 2 Ks; BA. .000, OBP .00, SLG .000.
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Yep. I’m done with Carter. Give me MarGo at first and Lowrie at third.
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It was a loss – and one almost entirely on our glaring, recurring offensive black holes. But in the midst of the boredom and the chowder Scott Feldman was superb. If there were questions about his ability to contribute to a playoff team’s rotation, last night went a long way toward answering them.
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No one player loses a 2-1 extra inning game. But Carter failed to win it. Conger failed in his throw and his lack of throw. Even the KC feed announcers said on the throw home by Tucker that Conger did not throw out Hosmer at 2nd because he does not trust his arm. Tough loss but every team has some of these during the year.
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As one that has serious doubts about some of the super advanced metrics, here are a couple comparisons that give me pause. Hank Conger .223 .331 .438 .768 and Carlos Perez .224 .246 .304 .550. Conger 3 errors and caught stealing 5%. Perez 1 error and CS 39%. Conger Games 79 & Perez 37. But WAR Conger .8 and Perez .3 negative. If I were a GM, I take Perez but obviously I don’t know anything about baseball.
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And my last catcher post for today. Has anyone watched Alfredo Gonzalez (at CC now). He is 23 and played at 3 teams this year hitting over .300 at each one and his thrown out 50% of his base runners. His career numbers are rather normal.
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He is listed also as a pitcher by Baseball Reference and that implies that he is a pitcher converted to catcher which explains his arm. He is obviously a raw talent at catcher because he has a lot of errors.
He has almost zero power because he hits over .300 but has very few EBH. He could possibly just be riding a great wave because his batting average is 100 points higher than in previous years and his BABIP is .407. It is possible that he has made huge strides at the plate in winter ball over the offseason, but he is probably still a long way from being an accomplished catcher.
There is not a lot of info out there on him and I have not seen him play.
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Interestingly enough, both of Gonzalez’s homers came in the same inning this year in a 21-6 drubbing of High Desert, the home run capital of the Cal League. The two teams combined for 11 home runs that game, tying a Cal League record. Apparently that day, Gonzalez was indeed riding the big wave.
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I know I can be cynical, but ARod’s surge makes me dubious.
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Interesting you said that. When I was asking about the above catcher, that was my first thought. “I sure hope he does not fail a drug test.” Huge swings in performance cause all of us to be cynical.
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I have made a few posts on Facebook that I am suspicious about ARod. I am also suspicious of Pujols’ resurgence, but not as much as ARod.
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I’m with you. The red flag on ARod is how he uses his lower body. Pujols couldn’t generate much leverage the last few years due to leg injuries. Suddenly, he looks ten years younger/healthier…and is destroying baseballs. I was under the impression ARod’s hip would prevent him from doing the same.
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