Jun 10 2015

Astros’ bullpen: From gas cans to firemen in 2015

There can be little argument that the Astros’ improvement this season is riding on three factors:

  1. Better fielding.
  2. More runs scored per game; and,
  3. A light-years better bullpen.

There should also be little argument that the bullpen is responsible for the biggest chunk of that improvement. Perhaps nothing points to the importance of the bullpen more than the current six-game losing skid. The bullpen earlier in the season would have most likely had a big hand in stopping this skid almost before it started. The blown save in the fourth loss on Sunday would not have happened.

In Tuesday night’s game the suddenly ineffective Chad Qualls let a 2-0 lead go to 4-0. Earlier in the season the bullpen was holding the line and the Astros two run rally behind Carlos Correa‘s first major league home run would have tied the game. So, there should be little argument about how crucial the bullpen is to the ultimate success of this team.

Now there can be argument and discussion about how the 2015 Houston Astros’ denizens rank when compared against each other. Who is best? Who is worst? And how big a gap are we talking about here?

All arguments end here as this post tells you exactly who ranks where and what grade they are given at the 1/3 pole of the season. (OK – you can argue a little if you wish.)

  1. Will Harris. Think of the movie Christmas Story and how Ralphie dreams of the grade his teacher will give him for his essay on why a Red Rider BB gun would be the perfect gift for him. That grade is the same as Mr. Harris has earned: A+ + + + + + +. ERA: 0.65, WHIP: 0.506 (Use your microscope so you don’t strain your eyes). He has allowed 15 runners in 27.2 innings and only the two who hit HRs have scored. He has inherited 12 runners and only one scored and that was in a bases loaded and no out situation (and to make it more interesting he gave up a hit and then got three outs without another runner scoring). He has been the best out of the bullpen.
  2. Pat Neshek. Grade A. The 2014 Astros bullpen gave up the fifth most walks in the league. This season they are stingy as they have given up the second least walks. The Ebenezer Scrooge of the bunch is Neshek, who has given up one walk this season in over 21.2 innings to go with his sparkling 2.08 ERA and .600 WHIP. After struggling the first three weeks of the season he has not given up a run in 16 appearances and for the season has not let any of the seven runners he inherited score. Right handed hitters have a 0.540 OPS against him, while lefties have a .367 OPS. He is nails.
  3. Luke Gregerson. Grade B+.  Gregerson was made the closer for the first time in his life and he has delivered. He has saved 15 of 17 chances to date. The Astros are 23-2 in games where he has appeared. He gets marked down for an ERA that has recently ballooned to 4.50 and a propensity to give up runs when given too big a lead. He has been good until now.
  4. Josh Fields. Grade B. Only complaint about Fields to date is that he missed the first three weeks of the season. Since then he has shown consistency that he only previously showed in flashes. 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 28 Ks in 16 IP. His control has recently been spotty with four walks in his last four games after giving up only three walks in his first 13 appearances. His control is critical to his overall and long term ability to contribute to the team.
  5. Tony Sipp. Grade B. T-Sipp (the Longhorns should adopt him) continues to be a bargain for the Astros posting a 2.18 ERA and a .823 WHIP. He gets a B, because after an absolutely excellent April with a 2-0 record, 0.79 ERA and 0.706 WHIP, he was a poor pitcher in May with an 0-2 record, 4.91 ERA and a 1.227 WHIP. So far in June he has bounced back to the pitcher he was in April.
  6. Joe Thatcher. Grade B-.  Thatcher has been decent as a LOOGY out of the bullpen. His 2.38 ERA is good and his 1.147 WHIP has been on a descending arc . He has let 7-of-15 inherited runners score. Nothing great or terrible here, though it should be noted that after 2+ months he has only 11.1 innings pitched under the belt.
  7. Qualls. Grade C-.  Qualls, who was one of the few reliable relievers last season, is now considered by the fans (if not the manager) the least reliable man in the bullpen. He started off well this season with one clinker against the Angels in the first 11 games, and 10 games where he gave up nothing. In his last 12 games he has been scored on in six of them including a blown save and two losses. And he did give up the two runs last night that put the game out of reach of a late two-run rally. Is this just a lull or is the 36-year-old in decline? It feels like Qualls and his 5.31 ERA should be watching Harris and Neshek get more of the late inning opportunities until and unless he turns it around. He gets a C- because he does have four saves and 11 holds on the season.

The questions for you are:

  • Do you agree with the rankings?
  • Do you agree with the grades?
  • How would you change it up?
  • If you were A.J. Hinch, would you change the utilization of relievers such as Fields, Harris, Neshek and Qualls?
  • Do you think the Astros should consider using Lance McCullers Jr. out of the pen to extend his season?
  • Do you think the Astros need a more traditional hard throwing closer at the back of the pen?

 

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98 comments on “Astros’ bullpen: From gas cans to firemen in 2015”

  2. We apparently cannot find anyone to play 1B or 3B since Jeff Bagwell and ….Morgan Ensberg?? left the team. And no – none of these relievers are going to improve that situation.

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    • Good one Nance. On subject, Qualls and Thatcher to me seem like a waste of spots on the 25. I’
      m not sure what we do with LMJ Jr or VV to protect those valuable young arms?

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      • Hmmmmm. Could Jose Veras be on Luhnow’s call-up plans for bullpen relief as soon as he gets it going in Fresno?

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  3. 1-6: I think all have been over performing, especially Harris and Neshek. I think there will be some falling back to earth for these two a la Qualls and Sipp. So, at this point of the “semester” I am giving all an Incomplete. I suspect there are a couple in the class that should probably drop the course before they ruin their GPA.

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  4. On an unrelated note to my post, but related to Kevin’s comment – through 21 rounds – the Astros have made 23 picks, due to the Aiken replacement pick (#2) and the compensatory pick (#37).
    They have chosen:
    8 OFs
    7 RHPs
    4 LHPs
    3 Cs
    1 SS

    If you are playing along here – since they picked Mr. Bregman as the 2nd pick – the Astros have picked 0 infielders!
    Not that you can’t move an OF to first base say – but for a team that struggles so to find 3B’s and 1B’s this strikes me as odd.

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    • Now through the 27th round, Dan, and still not a single infielder to go with Mr. Bregman. So . . . how do we play rookie league ball? Our rookie teams may have to play with pitchers, outfielders, and catchers manning the bases.

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      • Yep. I can see Villar at SS, Dominguez at 3B, Carter at 1B, and more than likely they’ll demote Joe Sclafani and have him play 2nd.

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      • A few more infielders suddenly surfaced. I think you woke the drafting-team up, Dan. But I note we just selected Conor Biggio in round 34. I see he is now regarded as an outfielder. Does Jeff Bagwell perhaps have a kid in the draft as well?

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  5. This year’s bullpen is so much better than the last two years that I can’t even really be mad at Chad Qualls’ last two outings. Chad has been around a long time, and is known to have a tendency to tip his pitches. I presume he’s doing it again. He doesn’t have that many pitches, and he doesn’t have anything overpowering, so other teams are just teeing off. I suspect he has a hangnail coming, and will need a rehab assignment at which he can work go back and focus on the basics of delivery and arm slot again.

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  6. I think they may make a move in the bullpen in July, but you can bet there will be some young arms in the bullpen come September. for callups. One guy we may not see in Houston is Appel, because he is not eligible to be taken in the rule V, so they may not waste a 40-man on him. I think he will be given a chance to make the team next spring, though. If Feliz is lights out the rest of the summer, I see him maybe on this team if it makes the playoffs.

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  8. Following up on Mr Bill’s point about this years bullpen vs last years….
    5 of the 7 guys mentioned above have ERAs below 2.40 in 2015.
    Last year – only Matt Albers in an 8 game cameo ended with an ERA below 3.00.

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  9. Somebody just led off the game for Corpus Christi with an 0-2 single, setting the table for the #2, 3 and 4 hitters. Oh wait. That was Tony Kemp – now hitting .358 with an OBP of .453. That’s just sort of what he does.

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  12. I’m sorry, but Altuve is killing this team right now. He is swinging at horrible pitches and making easy outs. If he doesn’t return to a semblance of the Altuve from last year we have very little chance to make the playoffs this year.

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  13. To me maybe the worst thing that happened with Jose was having a bit of a power binge early. He is too early / pulling off the pitches. He needs to sit back and wait on some pitches maybe even take one once in a while.
    I have a feeling he will get things going again.

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  14. Beautiful at bat by Correa spoiling 2 strike breaking pitches or laying off them and then smoking one the other way over the RF for a double.

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    • I enjoyed Valasquez and his 98 mph fastball, also Dan. If this kid can keep from getting injured again, I feel strongly he can be an important piece either in the Astros starting rotation or the bullpen for the long haul.

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  21. Well actually I wrote it First Thursday and this is the 2nd HR he has given up since.
    Man this team is hitting in bad luck. Marisnick and Tucker murdered them to the opposite field and caught and Gattis hit it a liner on the screws and right at the OF.
    Oh and Sipp just gives up a dinger

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  22. That Velasquez start reminded me a lot of LMJ’s first start. A lot of wasted pitches and big counts but really good stuff. Needs to get the changeup over more often. Can’t wait for Strom to get with him.

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  24. When you are in a slump like the Astros all the breaks go against you and for the other team. Tucker getting robbed and Sipp giving it another dinger. It just goes from bad to worse.

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  25. OP – when Velasquez was struggling a bit – Strom came out and settled him right down. Good to see.
    Tim – yeah I didn’t think you made the 12 LOB up yourself – lol.

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    • If you ask Velasquez he will tell you he got into too many long counts and threw too many pitches far out of the zone and that limited him to five innings.
      Now that the debut is over, Strom will sit down with him and analyze that game and the pitch count and try to make some adjustments, trying to get Velasquez into a flow where he goes after hitters and gets them to make outs on his pitch earlier in the count.
      The Astros need to get seven innings out of him at 90 pitches rather than five innings.

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      • You are obviously correct, OP1. And I feel pretty sure we will get that and more from VV – and soon. The talent – and arm – are truly impressive. Strom must be beaming from ear to ear. With a few starts, and some wise counsel from Strom, composure and efficiency should come quickly. For the young man’s first start above AA, however, I am – and know you are – beyond ecstatic at the results we saw.

        You are next, Chris Devenski! Different pitcher, different style – same potential for serious positive impact.

        Mark Appel, are you getting hungry yet?

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    • Dan, don’t hold it against yourself. There was going to be a correction at some point. You just timed it perfectly. And let’s face it, there will be a bit more correcting too.

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      • Dan, go ahead and take the blame. All of it. On a day like this I’d just rather not bring up the other potential culprits yet again . . . . As Captain Renault was wont to say in Casablanca: “Major Stasser’s been shot. Round up the usual suspects!’

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    • If it makes anybody feel better about the bullpen we have, consider that the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen has just dropped its fifth decision of the month this afternoon. Atlanta relievers have posted a 5.10 ERA (17 ER/30 IP) in 10 games this month.

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  28. That Abreu dinger will stretch the losing streak to 7 and you can rest assured it will go to 8 with King Felix throwing on Friday. #glasshalfemptyguyhasenteredthebuilding

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  32. Well……….that was just a sad road trip. I guess we see how this team reacts to losing. When your only run was a sacrifice fly…..your in trouble. Sorry series, sorry road trip.
    Sorry Chip I know you don’t like it when I say it, but it is what it is.
    *smoke and mirrors*.

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  35. “there is no joy in Mudville”. At least not on this road trip. Awhile back I said don’t fix it because it’s not broke. Now something needs to change. When the teams not scoring runs the pitcher’s mindset is I have to throw a shutout cause we’re not going to score any runs. Too much pressure day in and out and so we have this dilemma. Our AA guys can pitch and it looks like we’ve got some who can hit. Get ’em up here. Can’t be any worse.

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  36. daveb and Nance –
    There is probably no more superstitious sport than baseball and beyond that there is probably no more superstitious fan based than baseball. So that is why fans like Nance and I are blaming ourselves for the bullpens recent problems just because we mentioned how outstanding they had been. Let’s face it – if someone told us they would win every game if we stood in the living room on one foot only in our underware while humming the national anthem – we would do it. And of course all be divorced or sent away to rehab by our children.
    Zanuda – that is always a real problem that a portion of the ballclub will think they have to hold up more they can hold up for too long. You can try too hard.
    In the 7 game skid the team has scored 2 or less runs in 6 of those games. The pitching staff is crashing under the strain especially the bullpen.

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    • …this is why I’m not on the ledge. I’d rather the bullpen implode and suffer that course correction in a stretch where the offense can’t drive in any runs. Let’s get the offense clicking – I think Springer will continue to dominate and Correa will follow his lead. Tucker missed a 2 run shot and looks great (when not extending the strike zone vertically). Altuve needs a day or too off…I’d stick him at DH and let MG play 2B against Seattle tomorrow.

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  37. I know our heroes lost last night. Again. I get that. It hurts – especially in light of the extended losing streak. But I want to give kudos where they belong.

    First of all, Vince Velasquez, welcome to the big time. Great start young man!

    Secondly, George Springer, welcome back. Dude, you last night you were a man on a mission! We love your spirit every bit as much as we love your skill.

    Thirdly, Carlos Correa. Congratulations on your first major league double. You are a sight for sore eyes, and we are so happy to see you taking your rightful place on this club.

    Fourthly, Jason Castro. That, sir, was some nice arm work. The sheriff was firing rocket grenades!

    Fifthly, Jake Marisnick. We know you’ve been struggling. To see you drive the ball the way you did with a runner on third, bringing in a run, was a joy. That’s the way you do it! [P.S. Do we have permission to show the film of that ‘productive out’ at bat to Chris Carter? Oh wait, he’s the guy who scored on the sac fly, isn’t he.

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  38. Oakland turned on Texas like a mad dog and our lead is still two games. It would be great to right the ship and keep leading the West. The way to get that started is to come home, relax and then jump all over Felix. Here’s to Friday night baseball in MMP!

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  39. Someone earlier mentioned we need a new hitting coach. Last year there were a host of folks calling for Mallee’s head but he at least helped Altuve get to another level. Have we seen any in-season improvement from any hitter on this team? A very strong case could be made that most of our hitters have gotten worse. What has Hudgens done or not done to address this situation?

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    • I would rather have a hitting coach that has been successful as a hitter in the major leagues, like Bagwell was. Why? Not because he can teach them how to be successful, but because he can talk to them about how to handle failure. The best hitters are only successful at what they are trying to do 30% of the time. When you get into a snide and that turns into 20% or even 15% for a few weeks, it’s how you handle it that determines how fast you come out of it.

      Altuve needs that. The guy has all the talent in the world at standing in a batters box and making contact with something, but when the beach ball turns into a BB in the box and you start pressing, you might need a little yes adjust your back foot here or see in the film where you are flying open there, but really, you need that settling presence that has been there and can just help you mentally get back to being who you are.

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  44. This is a great time for a young team to have a day off. Get home, rest up and realize that 2 games up in the division was beyond what anyone thought would be possible at this time of year. Come back and find your Mojo Austin Powers.

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  46. I guess he’ll sit next to Joe Sclafani on the bench. Wouldn’t want to mess with Fontana’s .227 BA.
    Hey! that means CC needs a leadoff hitter. How about Brett Phillips?

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    • I’d love to see Maverick up to CC, but [1] they now need a 2B more than an OF at Corpus, and [2] unless we DFA or demote Teoscar, some deadwood from Fresno is going to have to be cleared out before any outfielder in the system moves up. Hoes and Presley have both been playing at AAAA Quality, so Grossman [.214/.314] is probably the logical candidate for 1st man DFA-ed.

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      • Don’t forget, they want Villerror to play outfield, too. and that’s why Aplin was buried on the bench at Fresno. When Aplin got promoted downward(that’s a form of negative progression) to CC he showed people what they were missing real quick.

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      • We may actually do better in the standings by not playing. The Rangers are getting trounced by the As on our day off. We should go to bed 2.5 games ahead instead of 2.0.

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    • Somehow or another Fontana’s OBP is still good at .354. Of course, to put that in perspective, Fresno has four players with an OBP of .400 or more [Santana, Heineman, Hoes, and HEY JOE, WHERE ARE YOU GOIN’ WITH THAT BAT IN YOUR HANDS Sclafani!]

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  48. If you want to know how bad things are for Sclafani, he’s not in the lineup tonight again, but Presley is listed on Fresno Grizzlies’ twitter as playing both RF and DH tonight. Kemp is only playing one position, 2B.

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      • Devin – probably as many as have seen him hit which ain’t many. But we are strong – we’ve seen Chris Carter and Carlos Lee in LF, Jon Singleton at 1B and Jon Villar everywhere. There is nothing he can do that we haven’t seen as bad or worse.

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      • I have seen him play defense, but I like Dan’s answer better.
        Besides, I think that, just once, it would be fair to give Joe Sclafani a chance to play defense at a set position. He played five different positions last year and this year he hardly gets to play at all.

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  50. I don’t know what else to say about Joe except to remind that when finally given a chance to play everyday in AAA last year, he hit .339 with a .420 OBP. And yet, he never got the chance to play a regular position. So how do we really know about his D? It’s pretty apparent that he is not part of this organizations future plans.

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