A lively conversation was featured here Monday concerning the Chris Carter Quandary and what to do with the inconsistenly streaky first baseman, who does consistently strike out at Mark Reynoldsian rates. Today the subject is other quandaries that the 2015 Houston Astros face.
The Correa Conundrum
What it is. Frankly, this is a quandary that the front office has done to themselves. The Astros have the #1 prospect in all of baseball in SS Carlos Correa. There could have been arguments about whether he would have been the best choice to play shortstop right out of spring training despite Correa having topped out with half a season of A+ ball. This was made tougher when the 20-year-old shortstop tore up AA and Jed Lowrie went down with a three-month or so injury. The Astros made a financial decision to not start Correa’s clock; a decision that they made in the opposite direction for other young prospects such as Michael Feliz and Lance McCullers Jr.
Looking Forward. The loyal Astro fan does not care if Correa starts arbitration in 2018 or 2019 or is an eligible free agent in 2022 or 2023. He or she is just going to be hacked off if the Astros lose this pennant by a couple games, a couple games they know the Astros could have won with earlier help from Correa. There is another twist to this in that Correa is struggling (for him) at AAA posting .241 BA/.307 OBP in 19 games. It is possible that the front office feels like the young man needs 200 or more ABs to get his feet under him before promoting him to the big club.
The Villar Puzzlement
What it is. Jonathan Villar is a physically talented ball player, who has morphed into the Astros super-sub because the normal super-sub Marwin Gonzalez, is the fill-in starter at SS most nights. Villar has hit decently for a middle infielder, hitting .276/.325/.697 in 2015. The problem is that he makes head case mistakes on the bases and in the field, especially when he plays at shortstop or third base. If they are not going to bring up Correa can they live with Villar? Of course he who lives by the Villar, dies by the Villar.
Looking Forward. Will the Astros bring Correa up, move Gonzalez to super-sub and Villar to the minors or another team? If Correa’s struggles at AAA deepen, do they jump to another player to be the backup like Joe Sclafani? Matt Duffy? Matt (Shudder) Dominguez? Or reaching down to AA and pluck Tony Kemp? Chan Moon? Tyler White? or (Gulp) Jiovanni Mier?
The “Other” Starters Uncertainty
What Is It. The only certainty coming into the season was that the top two starters would be Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh. Keuchel has been arguably the best pitcher in the AL to date. McHugh started out very good, but has had his ERA slide over the 4.00 mark mostly on the back of allowing 8 homers in his last 4 starts. But they have been the best two to date in the Astros’ rotation. Scott Feldman had been up and down, mixing in three bad clinkers with seven decent starts and then heading to the disabled list with knee problems. Roberto Hernandez had an ERA under two after one start. It was over three after two starts. It was over four after five starts. And after 10 starts, it is nearing 5.00. Deduno, Wojciechowski and Peacock were bad in their attempts to fill the fifth starter spot. Lance McCullers Jr. has been very promising, but at such a young age is not an innings eater and may end up being shut down later in the season. Brett Oberholtzer has been passable in two starts after being injured. So the question remains, what is the eventual rotation after the top two and what happens if McHugh keeps slipping?
Looking forward. What will this rotation look like in a month to six weeks? Is McCullers the answer? Can Obie seize a spot despite putting so many runners on base? Will Feldman be better? Will Hernandez be gone? Will Appel ever get straight? Velasquez stay healthy? Mystery TOR pitcher get traded for and added to the mix?
These are just three of the Astros’ quandaries, there are plenty of others.
- What do you think they should do about these situations?
- Will these situations work out for the best or not?
- What other quandaries do you think the Astros are facing as they move into summertime?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
125 responses to “Astros quandary II: Correa, Villar and others”
I had a conun-drum once, but Phil Collins borrowed it and never gave it back. But I think I can feel it comin’ in the air tonight.
Meanwhile, Carlos Correa is our Captain, and is Getting Closer to His Home.
Lance McCullers? Well, let’s hear it for the Boy!
Evan Gattis is showing what we hope are his True Colors.
Meanwhile, Joe Sclafani is watching Every Move You Make, while Cole Hamels is apparently the subject of a Whole Lotta Love.
George Springer has learned how to Walk Like A Man, while Luis Valbuena is singing ‘Build me up, Uppercut, Don’t Break My Heart!’
Meanwhile, Roberto Hernandez is Slip-Sliding Away, Obie is praying ‘Take These Broken Wings’, and Jonathan Villar is so vain, he probably thinks this post is about him.
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Fan-tastic!
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My brother took two flights and a boat in today and once here convinced me that we could watch the game off my ipad under the stars on the pool deck. We’re having last call (I hope) as we speak. I think Lance McCullers is pretty good.
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Awesome post!
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Mr Bill That was great!
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I would wait on Correa for a bit . I want to see how he handles the first prolonged slump of his career. I like bringing them up when there hot Like Tucker,
I hope we get the best SS in the draft, like i have said for the last couple years, Correa is the future perennial all star 3B for the stros.
When Lowrie comes back it might be time to package Villar for a starter. Villar and Parades always reminded me of the same guy, great potential and athleticism, but head cases. Maybe Villar could be better on another team , he has upside.
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*The “Other” Starters Uncertainty*
We will eventually get Obie, Peacock, Wojo, Deduno, and Feldman all healthy at the same time. And about that time we can expect Velasquez – and a healthy Tommy Shirley – to start making Straily, White and crew look even worse at Fresno than they do already. That is when we will truly have an ‘other starter’ conundrum.
Oh, but if and when that happens, please don’t tell Phil Collins.
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Some folks like Phil Collins the singing drummer, others Don Henley, Levon Helm, or even Ringo Starr or Karen Carpenter.
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Drums keep poundin’ a rhythm to the brain, don’t they, Dan? But as Linda Ronstadt once said, you and I travel to The Beat of a Different Drum. Meanwhile, I Hear The Beat of A Distant Drum, and since neither one of us is a Little Drummer Boy, I guess we’d better Beat It!
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“I don’t want to work – I just want to bang on these drums all day”
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Maybe with Villar, we just need for him to take his time and “Bang the Drum Slowly.”
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Mr. Bill that is a 60’s – 80’s slide through pop music and ties to baseball we never knew existed. Let’s hope JFSF does a little John Fogerty in Centerfield impression….
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Correa conundrum: I don’t think there is one yet. Valbuena may be improving after a bad stretch. Villar does it in bunches, but hasn’t hurt us yet. I guess it’s like playing with matches, but it’s really the Moneyball approach: I can’t have everything because it costs too much so I’ll maximize using what I can afford. As long as the team keeps winning they can let Correa develop. What’s the difference between AA and AAA? Pitchers at AAA can generally locate better than the guys at AA.
Villar puzzlement: AAA when Lowrie and Correa are on same roster.
Other Starters: Don’t Panic! Look, Olberholtzer got burned by two walks, but we came back and won the game. The bullpen gave us that chance. Feldman and Hernandez have both taken a couple for the team, but turned in some good outings too. McCullers, Feliz, Peacock, Straily, and Wojo should all be used as needed.
I’m more interested to see what impact the draft(s) have. Next week we’ll start signing and assigning guys who were in HS/college to our farm system. That may require a few promotions and free up the ability to move prospects for big leaguers. I’m sure Luhnow has an eye on Dec and the 2012 college draftees who become Rule V eligible as well.
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As far as Villar is concerned, for the first month and a half of the season he was hitting below .200. By that time teams figured out that they could hamstring the Astros with lefties. Villar can’t hit righties and he has feasted on the lefties for the last two weeks to fool you with his batting average. Villar still does not have an extra base hit against righties this year.
Now, you add up not hitting righties and the awful fielding and you have Jonathan Villar, playing against a ton of LHP, not scoring because he gets thrown out on the base paths and making errors and you got mayhem, with Correa in AAA and Rasmus sitting because we’re facing lefties all the time. If we get Correa, Lowrie, Gattis, Springer, Altuve and Carter hitting lefties like they should, you won’t see as many lefties or Villar any more.
If you want to score a run, put Villar in front of Gattis against a lefty pitcher, let Villar get a single(don’t let him try for two), put in a pinch runner and let Gattis knock him in.
That’s me, looking forward for Villar.
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I think with Villar batting, the job of the 1st base coach is to trip him as he rounds the bag.
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He’s free . . . free fallin’!
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Perhaps we should consider a shock collar?
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Most MLB teams use a five man rotation and deviate from scheduled starts when there are injuries and/or off days. I could see the point that a club would choose a AAA lefty call-up for a spot start against Houston if they thought it improved chances to win v. calling up a RHP for the spot start…but I haven’t noticed that. I thought the guys we faced were taking their normal rotation spots.
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There is no Correa conundrum. When the date passes(in the next week or so) to save the team from having to pay their superstar decent money five or six years from now, just bring him up while the club is “On the Road, Again” and slide him in at shortstop. Then the excitement will build in Houston and 21,500 fans will cram MMP and spell out CARLOS in big letters. and buy 27 Correa jersies at Academy.
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Not sure where I saw the posts, but on McHugh. What I see is a pitcher that can not locate his pitches right now. He was 18-24″ from the catcher’s mitt on well over 1/2 his pitches. He can get away with that if the catcher wants a high pitch and he throws low. But when he puts the ball up, with the mitt almost on the ground – everyone needs to duck in the bleachers. He can throw that curve every pitch as long as it is started waist down.
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Stay calm everyone. The line-ups are out, and the starting shortstop for our Astros tonight is not Carlos Correa, or Marwin Gonzalez, or Joe Sclafani. And no, sadly, Jed From Stanford University is not back early from the DL. It’s Jon. He’s ba-a-a-a-ck!
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SHUT UP!!!!!!!
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It’s okay, Becky. Statistically he is due for an error free game!
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Collin McHugh’s record at one time last season was 4-9. He turned it on late in the year. If you are going on history, he is doing great right now and looks to get better.
Keuchel pitched beautifully in 2014 and his ERA the last 4 months of last season went up a grand total of 0.22 during that time. He is currently blowing away all of his 2014 stats, so I don’t look for negative regression from last season..
Actually, with Ober healthy and McCullers here, I could see the pitching get better in the second half.
Neshek is just coming into his 2014 self. He was having trouble landing and that was leaving his pitches up early in the year. He has found the groove that made him an All-Star last season with St. Louis.
Feldman pitched pretty well down the stretch last season and got no run support and blown saves from his bullpen, so I’m hoping his injury recovery helps him gain some strength to finish strong this season.
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Now to respond to the post: A. Correa and Lowrie solve part of that problem, but someone has to come off the 40 man. Not a major issue, but does have Rule V implications. B. The “NOT best” is the starters have to get better as a group. So far, I am an idiot, but I don’t see this team able to continually score 6+ runs to cover the starters and occasional bullpen lapses. C. I see a team that still has playing daily players that would not be on the 25 man for another team. So that makes trades for “improving” the team most difficult. So you have to give up prospects to get who you want.
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Jordan Lyles finished for the year and needs foot surgery.
David Carpenter DFA’d by the Yanks to make roster room for Tanaka. Carpenter will probably be claimed by someone and will be gone by the time Tanaka reinjures himself and is gone for another year.
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That kid can’t win for losing. He missed a LOT of last year after taking a ball off his hand. I wish him well……he’s a super kiddo.
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WHY………WHY……..WHY????……oh Lord at least I won’t be able to SEE the errors
he makes tonight. GEEZE…………
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Office Pool!!!!
1. Who ends a game above .200 in BA first – Valbuena [presently at .199] or Carter [presently at .197].
2. Who gets to 60 strikeouts first – Springer [presently at 58] or Rasmus [presently at 57]?
3. Who gets to 20 BBs first – Altuve or Valbuena [both presently at 15]?
4. Who gets to 20 HRs first – Gattis [12], Valbuena [12], Carter [8], or Springer [7]?
5. Which pitcher gets the 75th K of the year first – Keuchel [60] or McHugh [58]
6. Which reliever goes over 40 innings first? Harris [25.2]? Gregerson [23.2], Neshek [20.2]? or Qualls [19.1]?
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I’m late to the party mr. bill but i will give my answers.
1. carter (he’s been hot even before tonite)
2. springer
3. altuve
4. gattis
5. keuchel
6. harris
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The Mariners, who lost again today to drop 5 games under .500 and 9 games behind Houston, traded for Mark Trumbo today. Seattle is starting to panic!
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I’m loving LMJ efficiently getting thru 2 innings in 21 pitches.
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Wow – small sample – but is the #1 or #1a addition to the staff named Lance McCullers Jr.
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wow complete game for mccullers?
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11 K’s, 0 BB. Impressive stuff.
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And to think some idiot on here was pushing to trade for Hamels. He should be tarred and feathered and ridiculed for life.
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Ok, but we’ll share it. I’ll man up. You get the tar, I’ll suffer the feathers.
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I’d still love to have him, but as I’ve said all along, give them Appel, not McCullers.
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woooohoooooooo
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Yes RJ – great confidence in the young man by Hinch to leave him in there after giving up the two out hit.
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its nice to have a manager thats having a good year!
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Yes – AJH and LMJ made each other look good.
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Starter quandary? McStarter!
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Compare: Cole Hamels’ pitching line tonight: 7 IP, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 8 Ks, no decision
I’m feeling okay with Lance McCullers right about now.
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That is not a bad line, and the difference is going to be, at least this year, that will be his normal line. You expect it week in and week out. I don’t expect McCullers to repeat his line, or even consistently give us Hamels line.
Five years from now, maybe a different story. Today, Hamels can put this team in a much better position to get to the postseason. Once you are there, anything can happen.
I will jump in with Dave though, if you can get it done AND keep McCullers and Velasquez, this time next year you could have the best rotation in the AL. We’ll agree to disagree on getting Hamels.
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So far LMJ looks to be the real deal. His pitches had super movement on them and the fastballs were overpowering. I’m glad he got to go the full nine innings, he deserved it. Carter comes through with 2 HR’s and GS hits one too. Timely hitting and good pitching will get us there. I bet the other teams in the league wish they had the same problem that we have with who to bring up, play or trade. As Bill Paxton said in “Tombstone”, “Damn, I like this game!”
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and another quiz. who has the best record in the american league???
yes thats right, the HOUSTON ASTROS!!!!!!!!!!!!! woooohoooo woooohoooo wooooohooooo
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Best game I have seen all year! That’s the kind of pitching I have been missing!!! Love the heat!
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According to the Orioles broadcast, LMJ threw only fastballs and curves tonight. I assumed those 90mph pitches where supposed to be changeups, though. What did the home town feed think of it?
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He threw all four pitches. His fastball was 92-97 averaging around 95. He threw two different curves, One with a big down bite and one that was more of a slider that was harder and broke away from righties. He threw somewhere between 8-10 changeups which are around 90mph but move down and away from lefties. I oly saw him throw a couple of changeups to RHB but they effectively kept those batters from diving out on his slider.
He did not seem to be afraid tonight and poured his pitches in the strike zone because he had such good movement there was little hard contact.
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Funny you said that Devin – I had the sound off most of the game but at one point I did hear them talk about a 90 mph change up. Hey it works.
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So is anyone interested in revisiting the Carter quandary discussion? Two homers and the second one was insane – landing on the RR tracks in just left of center field.
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Not really Dan. He will have a hot streak just to make us change our minds and will go cold again. And I mean freezing cold. Trade him while he’s hot!
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If he project out to 30 HR and 85 RBIs and a .230 avg then Fangraphs had him projected perfectly. If that happens he will have value. Villar looked bad hitting from the left side tonight, as I talked about. But if he can field like that, some team may want to trade for him. He didn’t get thrown out on the bases tonight because he didn’t come close to getting on base.
Tonight was the first time I thought Tucker was pressing. He jumped at pitches and didn’t go with them like he has been.
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Agreed. You could see Gonzalez executing his pitches against Tucker and getting into his head a little. Also, I hope someone will take him aside and point out the shift – if Machado is standing at SS he can simply slap a double down the line once or twice to get more favorable defensive alignments.
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Kudos to Hinch for having the guts to leave the kid in for the last out. He would have been skewered if it turned out bad. And in the past, it probably would have. Things are definitely breaking the right way for this team more than anytime I can remember in past years. Even before the decline. Nice not to be snake it for a change!
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Houston……..We have a pitcher!! The way Hinch handled McCullars tonight spoke VOLUMES. None of us would have thought twice if the kid had been pulled, but when your manager asks if you are on empty, and you say no……..leave him in.
In many years past, this back fired BIG time, but tonight the manager gained the
respect from his pitcher, and his pitcher gained the confidence from his manager.
We STILL need another TOR kinda guy, but unless, and until that happens I
want to see this kid do well. The Correa signing is looking like Luhnow struck gold TWICE!
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I have one comment regarding the offense tonight…Chicks dig the long ball!
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Yes they DO!! Homeruns are……..sexy!!
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Gotta give some love to Brady Rodgers tonight. He started for Fresno and gave up I run on five hits in seven strong innings. All five hits were singles, with one being a bunt, three being ground balls and one being a line drive single. Carlos Correa doubled in the winning run in the seventh as he was 2 for 3- with 2 walks and got picked off of first once. Fresno wins 4-1.
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Mark Appel had a good outing giving up only two hits and 1 unearned run, which was the result of Teoscar Hernandez dropping a fly ball. Appel threw only 62 pitches in five innings walking none and striking out three. CC wins 3-2 over Col. Springs.
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Sooner or later we are either going to have to stretch him out, move him up, or trade him away.
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Angels came up with the tying run in the ninth against TB’s closer. Going to the tenth. I’ll have to check on that one in the morning.
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Angels lost……..Astros up 6 games. AWESOME!
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Tampa gets a homer in the tenth and defeats LAA. Astros lead is now 6 games.
Josh Hamilton put on DL for at least 4 weeks with strained hamstring for the Rangers.
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One comment on Hinch leaving LMJ in – it did not backfire because LMJ was not on empty. He could still hit 96 on that heater.
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Side quandary question – If Lowrie comes back and Correa is up and Carter and Valbuena are hitting better – what do you do other than smile?
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Altuve is all out of sorts – he was so off-balanced on an early strikeout he made Springer look like the one who is balanced and under control.
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Perhaps Mr. McCullers wasn’t the only pitcher who had electric stuff at Minute Maid last night. I have heard from trusted members of this blog how our two most elite professional hitters – Altuve and Tucker – lunged and struggled last night. If one did it, it might be a slump. When both do it, I figure the pitcher was nails. I see he struck out 8, and only gave up 4 hits [3 HRs and one Springer Singler]
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Yep! Astros had four hits, 2 from Carter and 2 from Springer. Everybody else was popping up or striking out.
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Here is a real Phil Collins conundrum to discuss. LMJ pitched 97 innings last season and 104 in 2013. It is likely that to protect his young arm they would shut him down at 125 innings or so. He has pitched 53 innings so far -so he could be shut down in 10 more starts give or take which might get him into early August.
Would you stick him in the pen to save him or give him a vacation in mid-year?
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I was lurking in the Crawfish Boxes last night and they were talking about this issue. One of the suggestions was that if the Astros wanted to look at Velasquez , they might bring him up to tandem with McCullers during the regular season for a few starts to give him a look and some experience. That would also limit LMJ’s innings and prepare them both for the playoffs if the club decided it wanted their stuff available in the playoffs. Velasquez is already on the 40-man.
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That might piss off some of the old guard.
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It is a proven fact for pitchers this age – upping the innings more than a reasonable amount over the previous season has a high chance of resulting in serious injury.
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Not sure if we’re the old guard or what, but it would not hurt my feelings if our #4 prospect came up for a look. Once Velasquez got healthy, he has dominated AA even more than McCullers did. Velasquez turns 23 on Sunday and has the best changeup in the organization other than Keuchel. His fastball is hard and hot with late movement.
This guy is going to be in the major league camp in the spring and I would love to see him get some major league experience this season, especially if it helps McCullers keep his innings down to make him OK for the playoffs.
LMJ may just have changed a lot with his performance last night.
I want to add a name to the list of players to consider for the Astros top picks in the draft: Tyler Jay. I add it because of what he has to offer as a possible reliever this season, a la Finnegan, and because of what he might offer in the future as a starter, a la Finnegan.
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As the Little River Band once sang, it’s “Time for a COOL CHANGE!”
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Was speaking of the old MLB guard. If it would keep McCullers on the roster and pitching, I’d be good with it.
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How we handle this ‘nice’ problem may depend upon:
1. When and how strong Feldman returns;
2. Exactly what kind of Peacock we find out we have brooding down on the Farm;
3. How strong Obie’s next 2 outings turn out to be; and
4. If there is a trade offer for a TOR that J.L. can’t refuse [Is it Appel-Dumping time?]
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I say just start stretching his starts farther out. Put him in the 5th spot in the rotation and skip him when you can – i.e. 2 days off in a given week. If the Astros are where they are now in August, they are going to need his arm since Fausto looks like his career is on fumes and Feldman is starting his once every 3 year injury hiatus.
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I see from today’s line-up card that A.J. Hinch plans to set up Preston Tucker for another pinch hit home-run. Interesting outfield alignment though . . . .
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I am assuming Preston – along with Rasmus – are being held up because they are left-handed hitters and Chen is pitching for the O’s. I refuse to entertain the thought that Preston might be being held out of the line-up for any other reason . . . .
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Well……this is a first this season (I think)……Villerror is in left field today. Maybe they just want to get his bat in the lineup, because not many balls leave the infield when
Keuchel is pitching. Cross your fingers……….
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Hinch has been named to the ASG coaching staff today! Who knows Lloyd McClendon might let Keuchel on the team too. But……..he thinks Dallas
is an “average” pitcher.
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I don’t think anyone is topping this post today. Well done, Becky!
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Lineup today:
Springer RF
Altuve 2B
Gattis DH
Carter 1B
Valbuena 3B
Villar LF
Conger C
Gonzalez SS
Marisnick CF
Ky Young Kandidate Keuchel on the mound.
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I don’t know how you feel about this, and I really don’t care…….Tal’s Hill is gone
after this season. I’ve hated that damn hill for years, and despised the man
it was named after.
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Becky I understand they will take the hill away and move the fence in. I never really liked the hill, but I have realized that I am more worried about George Springer running into a fence than killing his knee on the hill (though now he never plays out there).
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I’m glad it will be gone.
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The Astros and the Tigers are both on TV this afternoon and I’m watching the Tigers. Have I turned a corner as a 55 year Tiger fan/25 year transplanted Houstonian? Woah, I don’t want to think about it. Gooooo Astros!
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I complained the other day Chris Carter has “left a small village at third with less than two outs this year, and someone on here the other day told me he was 8 for 9 in that situation. Well, when he just struck out today that makes him 6 for 12 according to the TV. Pitiful.
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And Gattis left the same guy on third with 0 outs.
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Right. He kinda set Carter up.
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