Astros’ quandary: How do you solve a problem like Chris Carter?

Early on in the iconic musical The Sound of Music, the nuns have gathered and are “discussing” the novitiate, Maria.  Though she has great intentions, she continues to frustrate the nuns with her actions. This leads, as is apt to happen in a musical, to a song. “Oh, how do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you hold a moon beam in your hand?”

Houston fandom seems to have come to this same point in their relationship with 1B/DH Chris Carter. He is trying hard, but in their eyes, his flaws are overpowering his intentions. Or perhaps his flaws are keeping him from meeting the expectations of the fans.

The Flaws

  • Carter strikes out. A lot. Like the most of anyone in baseball. Like currently on pace for a nearly major league record of 220 strikeouts in a season.
  • After almost two months of the season his BA is only .188 and his OBP is only .292. For those “qualifiers” in the AL, he is tied for 88th (out of 91) in batting average and 71st (out of 91) for OBP.
  • On top of that he is 73rd in slugging percentage for a guy who is supposed to be a slugger and 74th in OPS.
  • Again, for a player who bats in the middle of the lineup, his extra base hit percentage is a puny 5.7% as he only has three doubles, no triples and eight HRs in 2015. For some comparison, Carter has 11 XBH in 165 ABs, while Marwin Gonzalez also has 11 in 108 ABs and Preston Tucker already has 9 in only 58 ABs.
  • He strikes out. A lot. And at 28 years old and 1500 ABs in the majors, to still be putting up a 35 percent strike out rate points to someone who is never going to “get” it, similar to the player he most closely mimics, Mark Reynolds.

The Positives

  • Carter warms up with the weather apparently. Just like in 2014, his numbers are on the rise (though still bad) as May comes to a close. Through Saturday for the season he in on a pace for 26 HRs and 87 RBIs. But after doing nothing in April, he has had six homers and 21 RBIs in May, which is on a pace of 36 HRs and 126 RBIs.
  • He is on a seven-game hit streak with seven RBIs in those seven games.
  • He is walking at a solid 12 percent walk rate.
  • Though no gazelle in the field, he is a much better first baseman than expected and is a ton better in decision-making than Jon Singleton showed us last season at first base.
  • The Astros are 12-5 when Carter knocks in a run or more in 2015.

The Astros bigger problem is how to parcel out the ABs if Jon Singleton gets called up and Chris Carter and Evan Gattis are both still here. The way Gattis has turned things around in May (.277 BA and .929 OPS with 9 HR and 22 RBIs) it is unlikely he is going anywhere. And then again do they need to make a move with Carter warming up in May? Would they get more for him or more for Singleton as part of a trade?

So, if you were then GM would you:

  • Bring up Singleton and rotate Carter, Gattis and Singleton between 1B, DH and maybe a little LF?
  • Bring up Singleton and trade Carter?
  • Trade Singleton and keep Carter?
  • Keep Singleton down on the farm and see if Carter continues to rise?
←
→

167 responses to “Astros’ quandary: How do you solve a problem like Chris Carter?”

Newer Comments »

  1. I’ve been a bigger Singleton supporter than anyone, but I don’t see much difference between him and Carter other than age. He’s streaky at AAA. Despite what we remember as a prolonged hot streak, he is hitting .269 on the season. His K’s are down and BB are up…at AAA. When he gets to the big leagues you can expect some decrease on the numbers, although he may provide some more of those hot streaks. Finally, he’s another LHB. Our lineup is susceptible to LHP right now, and even though Singleton has hit them decently, by my recollection, we don’t need to make it easier for opposing managers. I wouldn’t make a move as long as Carter is trending up.

    Like

    Reply

  2. If I were GM I would . . .
    1. leave Singleton where he is.
    2. Pray Carter and Gattis tear it up in June, so much so that some team – any team – that is still in the thick of the 2015 race comes asking for one or two of them – and BITE HARD AND FAST ON ANY OFFER that included a innings-eating pitcher and a catching prospect or a legitimate CF project. Carter and Gattis are one tool guys at best, and are far too streaky with their one tool to take the place of the future true heroes in our system much longer. Case in point – with Altuve at 2nd and Springer at 3rd and two out, who would you rather have step into the batter’s box – a. Carter? b. Gattis? c. Preston Tucker? d. just about anybody besides Carter or Gattis?
    3. Put Carter on the bench the moment he starts looking glassy-eyed and clueless at the plate. You can tell by his eyes during his first at bat if he’s locked in and seeing the ball or is in the usual Carter-fog. Until Correa gets on top of things at AAA, bring up switch-hitter Joe Sclafani to play SS against righties and 3B against lefties, DFA Villar, and use MarGo as your late-inning defensive replacement at either 1B, SS, or 3B as needed.
    4. Listen to a lot of Fleetwood Mac.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  3. I would do nothing right now. I don’t have any confidence in Singleton. I do not want to see Carter or Gattis in the outfield. I expect that Carter will start to hit more, as is his history.

    I would get more offense for this club by bringing up our shortstop and giving Carter at least one more month. But I would not sign Carter to another contract, regardless of what he might end up doing this summer. He’s too darn erratic.

    Like

    Reply

  4. *The Astros are 12-5 when Carter knocks in a run or more in 2015*

    There is a big, big difference between statistic correlation and cause. If you want to look at cause instead of statistical correlation, look at who scored from Carter’s whopping 27 RBIs, and how those who did the scoring got a. on base and b. in scoring position. Then look at the # of runners left on base by Carter in comparison to those RBIs.

    Like

    Reply

    • Mr. Bill, this, I believe, is the proper interpretation of Carter’s season so far. To barrow a phrase from Bob Uecker in “Major League”, “He’s left a small village on third base with less than 2 outs.”

      Like

      Reply

    • Thank you Mr. Bill! I wish everybody who use statistics to prove a player they like is good or to prove a player they don’t like is bad understood the difference between correlation and cause. I also wish they knew that “luck” and “chance” are not the same thing. And I really hope that the Rocket Scientist in Charge (Sig) at the Astros is able to keep his minions straight on these differences.

      Like

      Reply

  5. Can we send Chris Carter to nanny for a rich, nationalistic family in Austria? The whole world should know that’s how you solve problem like Maria.

    Like

    Reply

  6. I’m willing to stand pat with Carter. Even though his hitting or lack thereof makes me crazy his first base play has been a very pleasant surprise. What that tells me is that he is either a natural at first base – which I doubt – or he has worked his tail off. What that tells me about Carter is that he is not indifferent to his deficiencies and areas for improvement in the field so why would he be indifferent to his travails at the plate? He may just not have the talent/ability to make the millisecond adjustments with a bat in his hand that a guy like Altuve possesses. That may also account for his habitually slow starts as he just has to see a lot of pitches before he can track them correctly. I think his high number of checked swings helps make my point. My medical specialty is ophthalmology so my opinion regarding his seeing has some scientific basis. I had three sons, two of whom had the innate ability to track a ball and react to it and one who just did not get it. I worked and worked with the one who was not the natural and despite his great work ethic he was never able to master the quick recognition and reaction skills required for success in baseball. I mentioned this in a thread some time back that when my son advanced from tee ball to dad’s pitch he swung the bat at the same spot regardless of pitch location. When I was pitching to him and was able to hit his bat with the ball marvelous things happened. We really ought not to blame Carter but rather the sorry pitchers in the league who can’t hit his bat.

    Like

    Reply

  7. By the way, has anyone noticed who suddenly leads the team in OBP, SLG, and OPS [other than Jed Lowrie who is still on the DL]? Hint: it is not Jose Altuve – he’s third in OBP and OPS and 4th in SLG. Oh . . . and in case you were wondering, it’s not Chris Carter either.

    Like

    Reply

  8. I agree, doc. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve screamed at the TV this season something to the effect that Carter can’t see the ball. Will that get better? I don’t know. Can anyone help him get better? Again, I don’t know. But his slow start is at least costing the Astros runs, if not victories.

    It must also be said that, like you, I have seen great improvement in his defensive abilities at first base this year. Before, there were times I questioned whether he had his glove on the correct hand.

    Like

    Reply

  9. Right now Carter has no real worth to any team. He strikes out 85% of the time, and
    only hits a homerun every 10days, or so. He’s out of options, so you can’t send him down. He MIGHT get through the waiver wire, and I would expect some team trying to pick him up for nothing. So until, or unless Luhnow has another genius move, we are stuck. Do you bring up Singelton anyway? I’d say yes, only because Singelton has options, and he can go back to Fresno if he starts turning into Kris Karter all over again. That’s where I think Luhnow made a mistake by signing him to a muti
    million dollar contract last year. Hind sight is 20/20. As much as daveb is irritated about the Gattis/ Folty trade, I’m just as PO’D about the Conger/ Tropeano trade.
    Luhnow got HOSED on that one, and the A’s are REALL happy they made it
    Lord I hope Oberholtzer does well tonight……WE NEED TO WIN.

    Like

    Reply

    • Becky, I’m not going to pick between you and Dave. I hate the Gattis/Folty and Conger/Tropeano trades equally. I think both of these trades are examples of not evaluating talent correctly. Why did we underestimate Tucker? Why did we over estimate Conger? And we lost major league ready pitching in both of these deals and a future 3B because we liked Moran better than Ruiz. There have been some good trades – not these though. I would love to know how they decided these were good trades, but that thought process will probably never leak.

      Like

      Reply

    • Nance,

      If Gattis continues with his May numbers then he fits perfectly into the cleanup spot. If he reverts back to April then we have a problem. If he continues with his May numbers and Folty does not improve from where he is now then I think we will be ahead, so far, in this trade. Most scouts feel Moran is a better prospect than Ruiz, but we won’t know for awhile.

      Like

      Reply

      • Small sample to be sure, but Folty is already acting like he belongs out there. He has improved greatly from his first couple of outings. For a rookie or anyone for that matter, his last two starts were excellent. Last night I half jokingly stated that he might be our second best starter right now. Well, he is throwing better at this point then anyone in our rotation not named Keuchel. And let me reiterate, a very small sample, but a very encouraging one if you are an Atlanta partisan.

        Like

      • I agree, Dave, and this is why I say it is too early to call the trades good or bad. As I mentioned yesterday, most people were livid 6 weeks into the 2014 season with the Lyles/Barnes for Fowler trade based upon Lyles hot start and Fowler getting injured. Now, everyone seems livid with the Fowler for Valbuena/Straily trade. It is WAY too early to make a call on any of these trades.

        Like

  10. For the record, I did not like either trade. We gave up two young potential rotation guys and just a few months later, we need rotation help.

    Like

    Reply

    • Thx for saving me the trouble. I feel like he started slowly last year before coming on strong. He looked overmatched the AFL, but I don’t think that is indicative of his future ability. I hope Ruiz turns into a great player, but still will have no regrets on trading him to ATL.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

  12. Let me also add that although he has had 1 start for LAA this year, and it was a decent outing, Nick Tropeano had a 5.11 ERA at Salt Lake City with a 1.409 WHIP.

    Like

    Reply

  13. Just a few things to note about Nick Tropeano – who is no longer an Astro prospect. His ERA over 20 starts for OKC in 2014 was 3.03. His lifetime ERA in the minors is 3.42. His WHIP at OKC over 20 starts in 2014 was 0.987. His lifetime MiLB WHIP is 1.213. His lifetime minor league K/9 is 9.1. His lifetime minor league HR/9 is 0.7. The stats from his first 8 starts at Salt Lake after a trade to a club with a totally different focus and rhythm are not by any means representative of who this young man is or what he has proven he can do. Anybody want to look at Hank Conger’s lifetime stats and see how they compare?

    Like

    Reply

      • I think at this point, there’s a pretty good chance Tropeano might be a bit disgusted with the way things have turned out for him. He thought he had a job in Houston, and then got thrown into a trade for a couple of back up catchers. Then he got a shot with the big club, throwing six shutout innings for a win and then promptly got sent back down to AAA. Its a tough business. Ask Joe Sclafani.

        Like

    • I would like to point out that Hank Conger had a career minor league average of .297 with a .826 OPS. I couldn’t find anything on his ‘pitch framing’ ability though.

      Like

      Reply

  14. I don’t want to pick on Carter, when he is trending upward at .190, without picking on Valbuena when he is trending downward at .188. Carter certainly has been better in the RBI department.
    Valbuena is fitting in well replacing Matt Dominguez in the worthless at-bat department and in the popup department where Matty D excelled. If we could move the Crawford Boxes in another 75 feet Valbuena would have 50 homers by now and 51 RBIs.

    Like

    Reply

    • Good point, OP1. What is it about whoever plays 3B for the Astros, anyway? At least Valbuena leads the team in runs scored – and has 27 fewer Ks than Carter in virtually the same number of plate appearances. But the great promise of Luis being the OBP machine that would make us forget about Dexter Fowler has unfortunately not panned out. Still, as between him and Matty D. I’ll have to hold my nose and take Valbuena. Jed Lowrie, please get well soon!

      Like

      Reply

    • Right now, there isn’t much of a difference between Valbuena and Dominguez other than Valbuena being a better defensive 3B. He does have more power than Matty D, but he is not getting on base like he did in Chicago. However, like Mr. Bill, if I had to choose I would take Valbuena, but it isn’t a slam dunk.

      Like

      Reply

  15. Some 2015 stats for Chris Carter that might surprise you:

    – With man on third and less than 2 outs – he has 8 ABs and 9 RBIs – .500 BA, . 875 SLG and 1.330 OPS
    – With men on base, 60 ABs – .300 BA / .421 OBP / 1.004 OPS
    – With nobody on base – he has been insanely bad – 108 ABs – .130 BA / .217 OBP / .448 OPS

    So this tells me he is somebody who concentrates and bears down with people on base, especially 3rd with less than 2 out and who doesn’t with no one on.
    Plain weird

    Like

    Reply

    • Those stats definitely surprise me – indeed, Dan. I am not sure I share your conclusion about what those stats mean, but maybe Jeff Luhnow can find a way to use them – and your conclusion – in marketing the big guy to a team that has a lot of OBP guys and is looking for a streaky, freaky, occasional slugger.

      Like

      Reply

      • No way did I expect this – but I thought I needed to go look at it to get a better feel for the situation. Again – small sample – but absolutely the opposite of what I expected (though it makes some sense – the only way to get all those RBIs is to get hits with people on).

        Like

    • So if Carter has 18 hits with men on base, I have had very bad luck this year because I have seen the other 42 at bats. JL has almost -0- options at 1B and with Carter continuing to play almost every day, it proves it. If you replay 2015 with Altuve or even JFSF batting 4th or 5th, but placing Carter in leadoff – the numbers for him would be even worse, and either of the other two would have more RBIs than he has. KK is a career .219 hitter. Altuve has 25 RBIs to 27 for Carter with him mostly hitting leadoff.

      Like

      Reply

    • I’ve always thought the guy lacked a certain passion. I’d like to see him yell at an ump and get tossed, or break a bat over his knee or do something demonstrative every one in a while anyway. Maybe failure is not that big a deal to him.

      Like

      Reply

  16. How does a guy in a landlocked nation acquire all that wealth and property by being a naval officer? I guess his ancestors were also wealthy naval officers. God bless the well-paid Austrian Navy, which must have given the Nazis fits.
    Let’s sing about our national flower and get the heck outta Dodge. Wait for it….now.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  17. Tonight:

    CC is off. Tomorrow Vinny Velasquez gets what will hopefully be his last AA start.
    Fresno sends Wojo out to face by far the best team in the PCL [the Dodgers’ farmhands now enjoying summer in OKC].
    Quad Cities sends Akeem Bostic with his 1.229 ERA out against Birmingham.
    Lancaster sends a budding superstar with the initials TBD to the mound against South Division rival High Desert.
    Houston? Chris [a/k/a Ave Maria] Carter and Luis, Luis [a/k/a Me Gotta Go Now] Valbuena are in the line-up again. But at least Jonathan Villar is not. And for some reason I will never understand, the Orioles are not starting a southpaw – any southpaw – against our slumping bunch of anti-heroes.

    Like

    Reply

    • They could just give the ball to Gritty Bud Norris and he could pitch left handed. 88mph LH Cheese to go with his Whine.

      Like

      Reply

  18. Oh thank you Mr. Bill………..if I had seen Villeror in the lineup tonight my husband would have to hide the dog!

    Like

    Reply

    • Holmes and I will be praying fervently for your dog, Becky. The bloody demise of Fluffy the Cat is a vivid reminder to all of us on this blog how the world of Astro’s baseball – especially when we have poorly-manned infield positions – can coincide painfully with the world of poor, unsuspecting, domesticated animals.

      Hmmmn. I wonder if Holmes’ old friend David Eck_ _ _ _ is available to fill in at SS for you-know-who until you-know-who-else appears magically on Super-Two’s-day?

      Like

      Reply

      • Haven’t heard Holmes name in SUCH a long time! He was a TRUE baseball man.
        Look……….I’d go play short for them if I wasn’t so dang old! I certainly wouldn’t
        be any WORSE than our little error machine!

        Like

  19. Yesterday, I agreed with Brian and thought Singleton would be a better option than Carter. However, seeing that Carter is starting to trend up, albeit not as much as we would like, and with his improved defense at 1B I may be inclined to just ride it out with Carter. I wish we had a better backup option than MarGo. It would be nice to see if Tucker can handle the position.

    Like

    Reply

    • There’s a guy in Fresno that might be a better option than Margo. He hit .339 with .420 OBP in OKC last year, but as a reward, has been relegated to a part time role in 2015.

      Like

      Reply

  20. So a “choice” question…..
    Assuming that Correa comes up as advertised and Lowrie returns from injury after the ASB – would you want Lowrie to take ABs from Valbuena at 3B or from Carter at 1B?

    Like

    Reply

    • My preference would be to let Jed from Stanford University [JFSU] take 1B vs. righties and take 3B vs. lefties.

      Like

      Reply

    • Someone promoted a rotation for Tucker whereby he played LF/1B/DH and allowed the Astros to strategically rest JFSF, Rasmus, Gattis, and Carter. I think something similar should occur when Lowrie and Correa are together where Jed plays all four infield spots and DH. The problem is that Gattis can only DH…but I’d really like to give some days off from fielding to Altuve since he is getting pummeled by baserunners with no available response within the rules.

      Like

      Reply

    • I think I would rather see a rookie like Tucker have some normalcy – not moved around so much. I think Lowrie could handle it a lot better.

      Like

      Reply

  21. Carter’s inconsistency puts you in a tough spot. He can spend weeks carrying an offense. He can spend months frustrating you with striking out at record paces.

    It’s a tough spot because if you trade him and he goes on a tear, you look stupid. If you keep him and he finishes the season below .200 and under 30 HR you look stupid. You could both keep him and trade him and look smart.

    I would just manage him. Try and find what pitchers he matches up best against, use him where he has better opportunities for success, and quit playing him every single day. That’s hard to swallow for 4 mil, but that is what he played himself into. Use Lowrie when he returns to move around, 3B against lefties, 1B against some righties – particularly power pitchers likely to punch out Carter 2 out of 4 ABs – and do what you can.

    Hinch still has to manage around a bunch of guys. Altuve seems to be the only 160 game, 600 PA talent, the rest need to managed. Hopefully Springer starts getting there, along with Gattis, but right now, still holes. Another reason to get Correa up here, as I suspect he can also be a piece that doesn’t have to be managed around despite his age – and if you can get that everyday name written at a crucial spot like SS, the better.

    We are in first because of Keuchel and McHugh. Guys have been lights out. If they were both .500 we would be 6 games worse and not in first place. Can’t expect this to happen all year. We need another solid starter, if not 2, to take the pressure off, and the offense winning a few 9-7 games will help too. That won’t happen without the lineup getting a few solid players that won’t go 1 for 4 with 2 strikeouts EVERY game, and matching up better.

    As for Singleton, I don’t think you can call him up unless either Gattis or Carter get injured or traded. If you send out Villar, you lose all flexibility, and you force Gattis into LF somedays – which by the way the lineup cards have gone this year doesn’t seem to be in the Astros goal list. I would rather they write Tucker’s name in LF the rest of the season and see if he is one of those 160 game, 600 PA talents. My money is on him being that. Just write him in, and forget it. Your problem with Villar gone, replaced by Singleton, is depth in the middle infield and CF. If you call him and Correa both up someone has to go with Villar. All these imperfections make us long for those we can’t watch every day in Fresno, but we also have to remember how many pieces Hinch has to manage around and what those pieces can do.

    Like

    Reply

    • Steven, you are so right about the starting pitchers – particularly Keuchel and McHugh as starters, but also the suddenly very dependable bullpen – being THE reason the Astros are still in 1st place.

      Our offense has shown brief moments of quality but for the most part has sputtered badly. No one – not even Altuve or Tucker, who are head and shoulders above anybody else on the team not on the DL – have been dependable. We have NO ONE in the top 5 of any offensive category – well, unless you count strikeouts [Carter leads; Springer and Rasmus are also in the top 10], walks [Springer tied for third], hits [Altuve tied for 5th], and stolen bases [Altuve leads league with 15].

      If our pitching staff had not limited the runs scored against us so successfully, and if we had not had amazing defense from everyone except Villar and Conger, we would be under .500 and trending downward worse than we are right now.

      Like

      Reply

    • If they get a decent trade for Carter, they should do it and not look back. Carter is going to be what he has been and he is not going to get younger and stronger.
      Everything is going to happen in order. 35 or so new players are coming in via the draft. Players are going to move up and out. Then comes the trade time and some of our players are going to go and some new ones coming in. Fringe players are going to be shipped out. Some of the strikeout guys will probably move on and they need to be replaced by non-strikeout guys, like Tucker, Correa, Kemp and, finally, Lowrie.
      Pitchers that are not in the future, like Buchanan, have to make way for guys who haven’t had a shot and deserve one, like Shirley. What a horrible pitch Buchanan made to LaRoche, who looked absolutely hapless the entire series until Buchanan served up a cupcake on a platter. Guys like White need to go and guy’s like Velasquez need to move up. I don’t think the Astros do anything until after the draft is over. Then the dominoes start to fall.

      Like

      Reply

      • The key is decent trade. Right away I would assume the Astros are going to get low balled given his performance to date. Closer to the deadline, or a contender losing their first baseman or DH might change things. Presently, I’m not sure a bag of peanuts wouldn’t beat the best offer. If I am wrong, you are right, the Astros should take it without blinking. Getting a decent pitching prospect does wonder by clearing up the logjam and gives Singleton a place to play.

        Like

      • Could be true. 4 mil might not be bad for a guy that will probably do 30 HR and 100 RBI even if a lot of the times he frustrates because you know he is just some more contact away from 120 RBI.

        Like

  22. There has been a Sclafani sighting. He is actually getting to play 2B for Fresno tonight vs. OKC. Fontana at SS. Carlos Correa is . . . well, the #1 prospect in all of baseball is not in the line-up.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  23. Correa got thrown out at the plate last night trying to score on a triple…….sound familiar? He has a “sore” ankle, that’s why he left the game early yesterday.
    They are being care full with him in the mean time.

    Like

    Reply

    • Becky, I think he tripled and then was thrown out on a fly ball sac fly attempt. That’s what I read in the recap. Don’t know if he was sent home by the coach, if the fly out wasn’t deep enough or what.

      Like

      Reply

  24. So what is worse – Chris Carter playing like he is now offensively and in the field or Singleton as he was at the end of last season? I say it is Singleton due to being bad both places.
    So how good does Singleton have to hit to make this changeout worthwhile?

    Like

    Reply

  25. Valbuena w/ another 250ft pop out. This guy is just bombing it. He can talk about May being thankfully over, but that uppercut is still as bad as ever.

    Like

    Reply

    • It is one thing to call a guy out at 2nd when a fielder is “in the vicinity” and another thing when he never catches the ball. Terrible call.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    • That was an uppercut swing, too. Isn’t Cabrera the guy with the cannon arm? If Altuve was willing to bunt to get Tucker up there with the bases loaded, you’d think holding Marwin might have been a better idea. Gonzalez was out by a country mile, even if their catcher made a lousy tag that made it look close.
      Runs sure are hard to come by lately. We have a lot of guys thrown out on the bases.

      Like

      Reply

  32. Devin_ DANG……..these guys need some extra help on base running, for SURE!
    You don’t give up runs to the other team, by doing stupid stuff. I like Pettis, but the
    player has to have some brains…….which Villerror does not.

    Like

    Reply

    • I thought Pettis did a great job at 3B the first six weeks of the season, but, lately he seems to be getting 3B coaching tips from Jonathan Villar. Good night, guys, I got to go babysit some GKids.

      Like

      Reply

    • By the way Becky, old minor leaguers can have fantastic games, too. Alex Presley with six hits tonight including three doubles and a homer and 5 RBIs. Fresno and Wojo roll, 14-1.

      Like

      Reply

  34. Ok anybody………how did Oberholtzer look tonight? He sounded like his old self
    but since I didn’t see him you guys tell me what you think!

    Like

    Reply

  35. He was decent Becky though he gave up 7 hits and 2 BBs in 5.1 IP. Hedid spread it around and helped himself out with a pickoff. Threw strikes. Of course he pales vs. the bullpen that gave up 0 hits and 0 BBs in 3.2 IP.

    Like

    Reply

  36. We NEED him to be in this rotation……….sooner the better. How many more starts do you think they will give McCullars??

    Like

    Reply

    • Remember, Feldman is down for several weeks following knee surgery. Peacock is just beginning a rehab. Barring a trade, our rotation looks like it could be Keuchel, Oberholtzer, Hernandez, McHugh, and McCullers for awhile.

      Like

      Reply

    • Becky, if you’re still reading this far back, I think McCullers gets starts until he gets bombed (Wojo style). He isn’t putting up Keuchel innings, but the games are close. Also, before he was called up, I believe there was a stat showing Houston with the slowest average fastball in the majors. They are winning by working the low, outer third of the zone relentlessly. If no one keeps teams honest, this will catch up to them.

      Like

      Reply

  37. In last nights broadcast they showed a stat that Harris has stranded 11 of 12 inherited runners thus season. That is just outstanding.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  38. I sure wouldn’t give up on McCullers at this point. He’s got just 29 AA innings under his belt. Less than five innings per appearance. Not exactly an ideal way to prepare a kid for the big stage.

    And yet, he’s given up just 4 earned runs in 15 innings. That’s a 2.40 ERA. He’s had a problem with pitch count, no doubt, but he has not given in either. He’s shown some some pretty good composure on the mound for a 21 year old.

    Oberholtzer has always allowed too many baserunners. He’s got to get better in that area.

    Like

    Reply

    • Who is giving up on McCullers? He is one of our very best pitching prospects and we should, absolutely, not give up on him. He has an electric arm.

      Like

      Reply

      • I’m NOT giving up on McCullars, I just didn’t know how long he was going to stay up!
        I LOVE the kid! He’s got guts………and he NEVER backs down!! I’m hoping he gtes better, and better every single start!

        Like

  39. I have to ask now that the Phillies are willing to eat some of Hamels contract are we more open to trading for him now and, if so, what would you be willing to give up? The Astros have no one on the team or in the farm system that projects to be a #1 and the cost for a #1 via free agency is going to be more than what Hamels reduced salary will be. Would you give up Feliz, Appel and Singleton for him (that probably won’t be enough)? I know that looks steep, but we will be getting a proven #1 with team control for 3 more seasons past 2015.

    Like

    Reply

    • I would make that deal, but think the Phillies want more in return. The only guy I would not give up is Correa. The group of McCullers, Velasquez, Davis, Fisher, and Phillips would be considered a no more than one from. My preference would be something like Kemp + Hader + (Teoscar or Santana) + Peacock. It probably won’t be enough to get it done though.

      Like

      Reply

    • Tim—“Some” money can mean a lot of different things. Would the Phillies pay HALF
      of Hamels salary, or more like $10-$15 million. I think that ship has sailed, because of the amount of MLB ready prospects + a LOT of money. I don’t see Crane doing
      this trade.

      Like

      Reply

  40. Let me back up because we can make the case Keuchel is a #1, but I would still like to have someone who has proven to be a #1 for several seasons to couple with Keuchel.

    Like

    Reply

  41. The thing I appreciate with you fine blog supporters is that you have serious proposals on trades. I mean we can always argue about them – but having been on other blogs in other sports, this is when the “dumb” trades get proposed. Let’s see we can trade Villar, Buchanan and Downs for Hamels…..
    We know we will have to trade something of value to get something of value. If we can trade from strength – even better.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  42. Hamels is 10 years older and due over $100 Million. 1st Year Hamels – 22 (May 12, 2006) 132 innings with WHIP 1.247. McCullers – 21 (May 18, 2015) 15 innings to date with WHIP 1.333. Man, that is a tough one to give up right now. Plus Tim and I will be arguing for the next decade who got the better end of the deal – and probably not agreeing.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • We will continue arguing even if they don’t make the trade. LOL!

      Don’t forget Philly is willing to take on some of that contract. What if the Astros are only paying $15M/year. Does that change your opinion?

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    • I would argue that Hamels isn’t a great number 1. I hear talk shows all the time talk the subject of the top 10 pitchers, and noone throws out Hamels.

      He is an excellent pitcher, but I would argue Keuchel has a good shot of being better this year than Hamels best season in 2012.

      Would I add him at 3 yr, 15-17 mil (depending on Phillys pickup) for say Kemp, Santana, Appel and Velasquez? Absolutely. There is almost no combination of prospects I wouldn’t do because prospects are prospects, and Hamels is a proven number 2 pitcher that can push this team into the playoffs. Ok, minus Correa, but that is a given. If the rotation headlines Keuchel, Hamels and McHugh it will rival any playoff rotation in the AL, period. I’m not sure there is even a team in the AL East with one pitcher as good as any of those three. If Feldman comes back healthy and has a second half like last years second half, its a win.

      For me the problem with McCullers is command. He can throw bullets. I’m not sure he will get better command. We can say he is 21, he could better, but I will argue the world is littered with far more Bud Norris’ than Randy Johnsons. Guys with great command, like King Felix, usually show up with some semblance of it and then work out the kinks with some experience. I am not seeing near the level I think needs to be seen to expect him to emerge as a superstar. Like Norris, he has the stuff of a superstar pitcher, he isn’t Clemens at 21, but he is Clemens at 31, but Clemens was throwing strikes from day 1. If he is part of the asking price for Hamels, and that saves Appel, I’m in.

      Like

      Reply

      • Heck, I’m not even ready to start a conversation that includes both McCullers and Clemens in the same sentence, but today, I’d much rather see Appel go than McCullers. I’m just looking at progress and a lack thereof.

        Like

      • Appel has been suspect so far this year. It’s early. He isn’t throwing strikes at his usual rate. He isn’t missing bats at his usual rate. I would rather give it another year before we call the number 1 pick a lost cause. Unless he recreates himself he won’t see Houston this year, but given his 6 per 9 K rate, his inflated walk rate and ERA, I don’t think Philly would want him as part of a mega deal. Maybe they would. Either way, I would sign off on it.

        Like

      • It seems to me that many on here think Hamels is J.A. Happ at this point in his career. He is having a great year, so far, for the Phillies with a 2.91 ERA and a WHIP just above 1.00, while pitching in an extreme hitters park. Our pitching prospects haven’t shown anything yet in the majors. Look at McCullers as he was completely dominating AA hitters, but it is a whole new animal up here. Depending on what Philly wanted to get Hamels at $15M/year is a steal and he almost definitely will pitch better than any pitcher we have in the minors during the next 3 years. Strasburg was more highly touted than any pitching prospect we have and he has performed adequately, but nowhere close to what Hamels has done. I think many of our fans are far over-valuing our prospects. Who would you trust more pitching game 7 of the 2017 World Series? Velasquez or Hamels? I think the answer is fairly obvious.

        Like

      • All I’m saying is that you were making it sound liked the young man is overmatched coming to the majors and her isn’t.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Gotcha, Dan. Yes, he has done a decent job and I like him. I would like to see the BBs improve, but that may come with time.

        Like

  43. this can be found at hardball talk:
    Craig Calcaterra wrote this morning that Astros fans were speculating about a call-up for top prospect shortstop Carlos Correa after he made an early exit from yesterday’s game with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Well, not so fast. Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports that Correa is dealing with some minor soreness in his right heel.

    Correa actually hurt his heel on a slide into home plate yesterday, but there was no immediate report about any kind of physical issue. The good news is that his absence is considered precautionary and Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said there’s no concern about the fractured right fibula he suffered last year. It doesn’t sound like he’ll need to miss much time.

    Correa, 20, is batting .241/.307/.430 with three home runs, eight RBI, and three stolen bases over 19 games since his promotion to Triple-A. It’s widely believed that the Super Two cut-off will dictate the timing of his major league debut, but he’s not far off.

    Like

    Reply

  44. Good Heavens, I hope our F.O. is smarter than all this Hamel-worship nonsense. Hamels has a no-trade list, and the Astros are right smack dab in the thick of that list. He has made it clear that the only 9 teams he would accept a trade to are: the Dodgers, the Angels, the Padres, the Cardinals, the Nationals, the Braves, the Yankees, the Cubs, and the Rangers.

    THE DUDE CONSIDERS HOUSTON, TEXAS, TO BE FLY-OVER COUNTRY!!!!!! WHY ON EARTH WOULD ANY SELF-RESPECTING ASTRO FAN OR REPRESENTATIVE GROVEL BEFORE HIM, OR OFFER TO PART WITH ANYBODY OF PROMISE, IN A USELESS ATTEMPT TO TRY TO GET A DUDE TO ACCEPT A TRADE WHO VERY CLEARLY DOES NOT WANT TO COME HERE?

    Give Lance McCullers and Vinny Velasquez a couple of years (2017) – they’ll be looking down at Hamels in every pitching category. And at least two of the cadre of Appel, Devenski, Radziewski, Feliz, Bostick, Hader, Shirley, and Holmes will be every bit as good as Hamels is by then – at a fraction of the price.

    The process is working. Give it time. Don’t fawn over guys who do think they are just too good for Houston, Texas.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply

    • i do not want hamels either. a post that talked about correa’s injured heal and call up date relating to super 2 status disappeared.

      Like

      Reply

    • When he signed that contract Houston was in full rebuild mode. I feel very confident that he would waive the no-trade clause if the Astros guaranteed his vested year. Money almost always trumps all other factors.

      Like

      Reply

    • I think you are wrong. I think this is the way the Astros operate though. The fact that you have more confidence in prospects noone else is talking about over a guy that is a proven TOR guy in the majors shows your homerism. Homerism is fine, but its blind.

      Velasquez has TOR stuff. I would avoid putting him in the deal. McCullers does not. When he misses the zone, he misses it by a mile. He reminds me more of Felipe Paulino then anything else. There were people on this very blog in love with Paulino when he had some short sample success and was throwing 97, but he couldn’t fool major league hitters over a long sample because he couldn’t throw balls. Sounds silly right? The idea is to throw strikes, right? No, the idea is to throw balls that LOOK like strikes. His balls, look like balls. Don’t say that last statement to yourself.

      Speed can overpower the bottom half of a lineup fairly consistently, and give you short term success when you luck through the rest of a lineup that day, but over the long term the guy is Felipe Paulino. If he brings you back Hamels, you are a fool not to take it.

      Again, not suggesting Correa, Velasquez and Hader be our starting point (or even discussed as part of it). But your list of guys, ugh. I feel like in 3 years I will be talking about how great Hamels has been for the Yankees while you are talking about Smith, Harris, and Jones and how great of prospects they are, and I will be wondering where are the Ski’s, Feliz, Bostick and Shirley.

      Like

      Reply

      • But let me do it before someone else hones in on one statement and tries to lambast me for it (while completely missing my point) – McCullers ISN’T Paulino. He is much better. I just mean he has issues LIKE Paulino in that his non strikes aren’t really impressive. It’s all about command.

        I will concede there are plenty of guys that improve their command after looking shaky at first. It’s just not what the majority does. Most of them are what they are after 10 years of pitching before they even get to the majors.

        My pitching coach in HS used to have a giant portable clothes rack he put up on top of home plate. He would hang little tabs off of fishing line and challenge us to hit them without losing any velocity. That is not an exercise McCullers would excel in. Personally, lets just say I broke a few racks. Darn things kept moving, I’m sure of it.

        Like

    • Funny thing is the SI article on him today talks about how some execs think he is the next Jeter – in that he shows many of the same leadership traits.

      Did you just coin the next nickname?

      Like

      Reply

  46. I would like the Astros to go after a pitcher that they really covet. Someone that they think would fit in, be a star, be a big part of the team for years and someone the fans would really respond to. I want a surprise, somebody we hear his name and go “yesss”. Somebody who is already pitching well and will put the team on every fan’s lips. Go find him, Astros. Go get him.

    Like

    Reply

    • His curve ball hasn’t been good the last few starts. His cutter is less effective the more he throws it. Also, Hank Conger.

      Like

      Reply

  48. Tim it looks like a combination of bad luck and bad pitching.
    He walks the leadoff batter on a pitch identical to the one Altuve just got punched out on.
    The next guy Paredes fists a weak hit in the right spot.
    The next two guys get solid hits on pitches that are right smack in the middle of the plate. Marisnick was maybe playing a little shallow on the big triple.
    The final run scores on a single that again caught too much of the plate.
    Mc Hugh just does seem to be keepng it down as much or hitting the corners as well as lasr season. Hopefully it is just a little slump.

    Like

    Reply
Newer Comments »

Leave a reply to Nance (@Bbfanlady) Cancel reply