Predictions. Astros 2026

Before we jump into the predictions part of this post, let’s look back in anger, or at least look back in dislike, at last season.

Astros 2025

  • 87-75
  • Second place in the AL West and missed the playoffs by one game for the first time since 2016

Offense

  • 4.23 Runs/gm (8th in AL), .250 BA (5th), .315 (7th), .714 OPS (T-7th), 182 HRs (T-9th), 471 Walks (3rd least), 1301 Ks (3rd least)

Starting Pitching

  • 3.97 ERA (8th in AL), 862.2 IP (6th), 1.23 WHIP (6th), 118 HRs (7th least), 284 Walks (6th most), 857 Ks (2nd most), .238 BA (3rd best)

Relief Pitching

  • 3.70 ERA (5th in AL), 579.1 IP (12th), 1.22 WHIP (T-1st), 81 HRs (T-3rd worst), 224 Walks (6th least), 647 Ks (1st), .224 BA (1st best)

What did this tell us? The Astros ‘ middle-of-the-road offense, combined with a terribly injured starting rotation that ended up middle-of-the-road, supplemented by a better-than-average bullpen, ended up above average in W-L.

2026 Predictions

I put on my Johnny Carson / Carnac the Magnificent turban, started getting a headache, set the turban aside, and just took a swing at the 2026 season.

  • How will the Astros fare in 2026? The Astros will finish 90-72, second in the AL, and in the playoffs, where they will win the Wild Card round and lose in the divisional round.
  • Will Hunter Brown win more than the 12 he deposited in 2025? Yes, he will get better support and win 16 games in 2026.
  • How will #2 Tatsuya Imai and #3 Mike Burrows (my ratings) finish vs. the top two starters in 2025? The #2 pitcher in 2025 was Framber Valdez (13-11, 3.66 ERA). The #3 was….who? Ryan Gusto (7-4, 4.92 ERA)? Jason Alexander (4-2, 3.66 ERA)? Colton Gordon (6-4, 5.34 ERA)? My gut feeling is that Imai and Burrows staying healthy will end up around 20 – 22 wins and a better season than what they are replacing.
  • How will #4 Cristian Javier and #5 Lance McCullers Jr. fare vs. 2025 versions of themselves? I believe they will outperform Javier (2-4, 4.62 ERA) and LMJ (2-5, 6.51 ERA) or they will be somewhere else or at home watching A.J. Blubaugh, Ryan Weiss or Spencer Arrighetti.
  • Will Yordan Alvarez bounce back in a healthy way from 2025? Yes. He will play in 140 games and hit .290 with 40 home runs and 97 RBIs.
  • Will Cristian Walker bounce back from his worst season hitting in the majors? No. He will hit like he did last season and continue to disappoint fans with his high K rate and low BA.
  • What can they expect from the left side of the infield this season? Jeremy Pena and Carlos Correa will be a very solid SS/3B except when Carlos gets injured and is replaced for 40 games by Isaac Paredes, who will be as good or better.
  • What about icon Jose Altuve? He will have a solid season and deposit 160 hits towards the 3000 he is dying to reach.
  • Give us some sauce on the outfield? Yordan will play less than 40 games in left field. Jake Meyers will field like a sonuvagun, but will fall short of his very good BA/OBP numbers from 2025. Joey Loperfido and Brice Matthews will break out as they rotate with the other outfielders and Cam Smith will trend back towards the first half of 2025.
  • What about the closer? Bryan Abreu will struggle for the first month and then will hit his stride in May….when Josh Hader returns from the IL and Abreu gets to slide back into his set-up role.
  • What about the leverage/setup spots? With both Hader and Bennett Sousa out, the leverage spots are weaker with Abreu the closer and Sousa on IL. Steven Okert gets found out a bit and falters. Bryan King continues the good work he did in 2025. Two of Roddery Munoz, Christian Roa and Kai-Weng Teng will step up to take some of the pressure off the others.
  • And those long spots? Right now that is Blubaugh and Weiss with perhaps some of the others stepping up for 1+ innings along the way. The hope is that the rotation performs well and that if they need boosting Spencer Arrighetti comes back to assist. Under worse conditions, Blubaugh and/or Weiss may need to move to the rotation due to injury or lack of performance above them. The prediction is that Blubaugh will be critical and Weiss will be more problematic.
  • And what about the rest of the division? The division will look like this:
    • Seattle 93-69
    • Astros 90-72
    • Athletics – 82-80
    • Rangers – 80-82
    • Angels – 70-92

I have only one request. Please, don’t look back at this post. Ever.

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