Astros’ 2026: What do the latest starting pitching moves mean?

The Astros’ signing of Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai marked a shift in direction for the team. They have had three Japanese players play for the team: OF Nori Aoki, IF Kazuo Matsui, and most recently SP Yusei Kikuchi. But this is the first time, the Astros have signed a player directly out of the Japanese professional league. This move does follow along with other moves made to bolster the starting pitching staff this off-season.

The four potentially significant moves related to starting pitching this offseason were:

  • Moving on from Framber Valdez – yes, a bit of a negative move, but it is the move that triggered the other three major moves this off-season. It meant they were not tying up a ton of money on one pitcher for his age 32 to 37 or so years.
  • Signing 29-year-old Ryan Weiss to a $2.6 million contract out of the Korean league, which could cost as much as $10 million over two seasons with bonuses and a team option. Weiss seemed to find himself over the last two seasons in the KBO and will likely be given every chance to be in the Astros rotation this season.
  • Trading for Mike Burrows from the Pittsburgh Pirates – sending prospects Anderson Brito and Jacob Melton to the Rays to complete a three-way trade. The 26 y.o. moved into the Pirates rotation last season after a late May call-up from the minors. He pitched solidly, will be earning the league minimum in 2026 and is controllable through 2031.
  • Signing Tatsuya Imai out of the NPB league in Japan for a contract that is worth at least $54 million over three seasons, but with bonuses, could reach $63 million. It could also cost the team only $18 million if he opts to leave after one season. He will undoubtedly opt out after one season if he pitches anywhere near his terrific numbers in Japan. He turns 28 y.o. in May and could be one of the top free agents for 2027 with a good 2026.

What do these four moves tell you about the Astros?

  • They will not tie themselves to a long-term boat anchor contract (six years and more) for their own player.
  • They were committed to bringing in pitching talent without trading from the major league roster. Melton played a bit (not well) at the major league level and Brito was moving up the minors quickly, but they are both prospects.
  • They were willing to take risks as they brought in two players from the Korean and Japanese leagues, respectively. They also brought in a pitcher in Burrows with a short resume – only 99.1 major league innings in his career to date.
  • When they did take on a more costly contract it was a) Much less than what Framber will likely bring in on a per-year basis and b) It maxes out as a 3-year commitment at the most.
  • They went cheap in a lot of ways, but their experience with their pitching coach staff getting the most out of pitchers may have weighed heavily in what they did.

Here is a completely unscientific ranking of the current rotation choices headed into spring training.

  1. Hunter Brown – slam dunk #1
  2. Tatsuya Imai – (I am trying hard to get used to his name – it took me a whole year to remember Rockets Coach Ime Udoka’s sobriquet). I think he will give the Astros a very good 2026.
  3. Cristian Javier – Can he trend more towards 2022 Javier?
  4. Mike Burrows – Can he go deeper into games than he did in 2025 and move into the third spot?
  5. Ryan Weiss – It might not be him, but they will give him every opportunity to earn it.
  6. Jason Alexander – He was a very steady addition to the rotation in 2025. Was that a fluke?
  7. Lance McCullers Jr. – Will they give him a rotation spot based on his salary? I would love to see some vintage Lance
  8. A.J. Blubaugh – Loved what I saw of him at the end of 2025. Will he get a shot, or will he start off in AAA?
  9. Spencer Arrighetti – He was not pitching that well last season before he was hurt. But that 5th spot in the rotation could easily fall to him.
  10. J.P. France – The forgotten injured man, who looked good in a couple late season appearances
  11. Colton Gordon – He pitched below average in 2025 swinging back and forth from the bullpen to the rotation. Somehow, he squeezed out 6 wins from an offense that could not give Hunter Brown what he deserved in the win column.
  12. Ronel Blanco – Probably back in the second half of the season – he may have been the Astros best starter in 2024
  13. Hayden Wesneski – Had barely gotten going in 2025 when he went down after 6 games. Like Blanco maybe he returns in the second half of 2026?
  14. Jayden Murray – Looked good after his call-up in 2025, but is there any room at the inn for him?
  15. Miguel Ullola – Considered one of their top prospects if he can ever control his control. Was protected on the 40-man roster and may get a chance to debut in 2026.
  16. Ethan Pecko – Pitched better at AAA than AA in 2025.  
  17. Nate Pearson – Most likely only pitching out of the bullpen but was a starter earlier in his career.

OK, this list may look ridiculous, but remember the Astros had 15 different men start games in 2025. That #5 thru 10 area of the rotation is very tight and any of those pitchers making the rotation out of Spring Training would not constitute a surprise. Hopefully they can avoid the injury bug that caused that huge usage of starters in 2025, but if it does happen, there are lots of options. Whether they are good options…we will see.

←

8 responses to “Astros’ 2026: What do the latest starting pitching moves mean?”

  1. The top post in the baseball subreddit right now is about the largest dropoffs in WAR by players from their 20-29 seasons to their 30-39 years. Without summarizing the chart, the one that jumped out to me was Clayton Kershaw who was 58.8 before and 19.3 after turning 30. Understand that he had one bad year due to injuries, but we would have taken every other season from his 30’s in a heartbeat. Framber is now 32 and has put up 18.9 WAR in his career. Paying him would be foolish on anything but a short term deal. Also, fwiw, Tim Lincecum had 19.9 WAR for his career, but his age 28 year onward was actually a -4.6 (he didn’t make the chart). Zac Gallen is 30 and has 20.7 WAR for his career. Expecting him to outplay a guy like Burrows seems questionable. We got LMJ to sign a team friendly extension that hurts right now given his injury history and outstanding questions about how he can contribute moving forward. I’m hopeful on Javier, but that salary is similarly problematic. For the regular season I’m really most interested in which guys have options and can therefore be used to replace whoever gets hurt. I’d love to have another pitcher like Brown at the top of the rotation come September and beyond, but I don’t think we have the prospects to trade for one of those and still don’t see them on the free agent marketplace. Hopefully Imai can be that guy, but I have to plead ignorance as I’ve never actually seen him play.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  2. Have I said Happy New Year yet?

    Housekeeping note: Brian McTaggart annoys me sometimes. He’s putting out Astro press releases. That’s all he does. Can’t he share his opinions? At least Rome puts down his own thoughts.

    It looks like the Astros might have enough arms around to at least get deep into the season. I sure hope we don’t need them all. At this point, there are about three or four guys that I’m looking forward to seeing in the rotation. That’s not enough. But, I’ve got to give Dana and Joe the opportunity to make it all make sense.

    Right now I’d like to see Bregman get signed by someone. That will help determine the fate of Walker/Paredes. Paredes played 9 games for Hermosillo in December but has not played since. I hope that means nothing.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • I reached out to old friend of the blog – Becky – to check on her and here is what she wrote back

      “Hi Dan I’m glad to hear from you! I’m still at the Assisted Living facility and probably will be the rest of my life.

      I fell last year and broke my shoulder and finally after 6 months of physical therapy I’m able to use my arm again. Hopefully everyone is still with you at  Chips blog. I keep up with the  Astros news, so I know what the club is doing. Life is so empty after losing my husband😥

      It’s VERY difficult losing your mate when you get old. He was my everything and now it’s just an empty chair. Tell Old Pro and Daveb I send my best! I miss “talking” to all of you. I hope you’re doing well and in good health. I promise to check in with you as the new season starts.

      Send my love to everyone!

      Becky”

      I tried to be comforting back to her. I am concerned that we have not heard from Old Pro in a while – I’ve tried to reach out to him but have not heard back. If anyone knows anything else let me know.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply

    • Dan, please give Becky my best. Maybe she might consider checking in with us every now and then, as it sounds like she’s still following her Astros.

      Old Pro is on my mind regularly. I do hope he checks in soon.

      Like

      Reply

  4. Concur, the Astros are doing the right thing letting Framber walk. Devin’s point is spot on, reminds me of the example I gave a few weeks ago of David Price – Tampa got more WAR in 5.5 years of Prices career for pennies, the rest of baseball got OK WAR from the last 9 but for 150M+. When you’ve gotten the best anyone is going to see from them, let someone else pay that market price unless you just have the duckets to burn.

    If St. Louis, who was in the market for pitching, had asked for Javier and 2 prospects in exchange for Donovan I would have jumped, and thats tough for me because I stand by the motto offense can win a game but pitching wins championships. I just don’t trust Javier’s health, and while he can be very shutdown in any at bat in any given game, his finishing 5 innings at 95 pitches habit is frustrating and has to be a challenge to manage. And the salary relief could be crucial for a mid season acquisition.

    I have a bad feeling 17M will dictate the 5th spot in the rotation. Crane has shown he is willing to eat salary with Abreu and Montero, but he also showed a stubbornness in his willingness to pull that drain stop. If McCullers is terrible through April, I’m sure he will eat the salary, it’s just going to be frustrating as a fan that it could be 3 or 4 games where a different pitcher might have won a game or 2 that he loses. Who knows though, maybe LMJ gains enough of a combination of confidence and velocity back in his fastball to keep people from sitting on the curveball and actually starts getting some consecutive outs and gets on a roll.

    Brown-Javier-Imai-Weiss-Burrows-Arrighetti is as good a foundation you could ask for giving the marching orders about the cap and what we had to work with. Probably not as many 8 inning, 1 run gems in that rotation as previous years, but I don’t think there will be many 2 inning, 7 run blow ups that instantly put you out of games either.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

    • I don’t care about LMJ finding a way to increase velocity – he needs to improve location. He only threw a fastball 10% of the time last year. If he can get ahead in the count by locating pitches well…even if they’re only 90mph…his breaking stuff will matter. If he can’t locate and doesn’t throw fastballs the hitters will just be looking for hangers.

      Like

      Reply

  5. Devin – totally agree with what you are saying – in many ways this is how a lot of dynasties keep going. Yes, the Patriots had Brady – but they also….got him to buy into smaller contracts so there was more money to spread around and they were totally unsentimental about almost every player they had. Always looking for a cheaper option with similar output.

    Daveb – yeah I think they have enough arms – but will they choose the right ones?

    Steven – Same kind of thing – if you look back at 2025 I am sure if you replaced Lance with someone else – let’s say A.J. Blubaugh you make the playoffs. That will be the most interesting spot to watch on the pitching side.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment