Astros’ offseason: Have they tipped their hand at all?

This will be a quick note of a post today, fitting it in among the many other obligations of the season.

When the Astros’ part of the three team trade was being solidified and it included sending #2 ranked prospect OF Jacob Melton and #7 (and rising) P Anderson Brito to Tampa Bay while receiving P Mike Burrows from the Pirates, Dan P was texting back and forth with Chip Bailey about what this might or might not mean as far as the direction the Astros were headed this off-season. (OK – that was a bit of a William Faulkner run-on paragraph there – sorry).

To sum it up, Chip texted “My point is that ‘going after’ Burrows may be sending a signal about what they’re willing to do in the off-season. If they’re giving up 2 high prospects (even in the Astros’ system), they must believe he’s (Burrows) a potential #2 …if not, why not keep your bullets for a better deal. Guess we’ll see.”

What are some possibilities here?

  • Are the Astros going for it? In other words, rather than collecting prospects for some type of rebuild (mini or full) has their willingness to part with top 10 prospects been a signal that they are all-in in 2026?
  • Do they not value these prospects that highly? They saw Melton up close, and did they think – he’s a AAAA prospect? Are they trading Brito at the top of his value after a great go in the Arizona Fall League?
  • Are they staring at Burrows and thinking he could be a much cheaper replacement for Framber Valdez? He is under team control through 2031. He pitched well for the Pirates last season with an ERA under 4 and a walk rate of 2.9/ 9 IP.  Do they look at his stuff and figure that the Astros’ pitching coaches can mold him into a 3.50 or better ERA starter to fill in 175 innings at MLB minimum cost?

Are they going for it? Are they making some low $$ additions (Ryan Weiss, Nate Pearson, Burrows) to allow them to make some bigger splash farther down the way? Or are they going for some lower-priced options to balance out the dollars they will be paying Lance McCullers ($17.7 million in 2026) and Cristian Javier ($21 million the next two seasons) and Hunter Brown (TBD – but will likely be around $6 million in 2026 unless they extend him)?

Are they going to add a veteran #2 arm like Ranger Suarez or trade for a #1 like Freddy Peralta? Or are they going to wait and see how effective their rotation is and make a move before the trade deadline?

Lots of questions … what are your thoughts?

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10 responses to “Astros’ offseason: Have they tipped their hand at all?”

  1. I guess everyone was out shopping. No comments? Honestly, I was out making the rounds having Christmas Cheer. I’m feeling a bit foggy this morning. As an aside, those darn Aggies just can’t seem to put together a good game when it really counts.

    I think the Astros figured out that Jake Meyers does not have a whole lot of value. And heck, what if he suddenly starts hitting at home, even though the power production might be meek? If he hits 9th and gets on base regularly, we’ve got an excellent all around centerfielder. This from a guy that has never been a Jake fan.

    Yesterday I mentioned the Astros are about 27 million under the tax threshold. I think they’ll spend that much and if they move one of the first basemen, they might make a pretty big splash. And although it’s not my favorite thought, I would not rule out a Framber return. He would not cost any picks. But I really want to move on. Sometimes it’s best. I’ll take The Lone Ranger.

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  2. Like I keep saying – it’s expensive out there trying to sign free agent SP. Look at the list here. You can strike just about anyone who turned down a QO.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?pos=sp

    Who are you going after? I suggested Civale might be available for a team friendly contract if they give him a chance to return to the rotation. After that, who would you want and how much of the future salary obligations are you willing to give them? I think the Melton/Brito trade was basically selling when there was any value remaining on the former and selling high on the latter. Given how he looked in the AFL you have to think he could have been a bullpen piece at the minimum, but also recall how much I talked up Forrest Whitley’s ability to miss bats. Whitley had more pitches but couldn’t locate with frequency. Getting a guy who can start now is probably worth that risk. There will be pitchers available in the draft who profile similarly to Brito in terms of arm strength if the team is willing to go after them.

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      • Right – I hope they have Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal in the rotation next year, but we both know that’s not realistic. So who do you think they could/should target?

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      • Good morning Devin. Sometimes I wonder if Jim Crane is losing interest. Did he sell the three minor league clubs because he wanted to simplify family holdings? Or is it just more efficient to farm out some of the operation? Or maybe he’s resigned to a long lock out coming. So far, Dana Brown has spent his time going for quantity over quality. As I noted above, being a fan, I’d like Ranger Suarez, but is he going to fade like Dallas Keuchel did? Civale is the kind of guy the Astros might a go after. I’m just a bit concerned that we’ll have our Ace and a whole bunch of 4-5-6 starters. As Steven noted below, the way it stands now, we’re going to get out pitched by the M’s. We’re not competitive in that regard. And the Mariners are still 70 plus million under the tax threshold. They can hold on to that money and make big moves in July again if they need help. The talent gap is getting wider.

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  3. I guess my question is do you really want to fill a rotation spot with a guy that is so dependable at pitching 4 or 5 innings? Granted those innings might be somewhat quality, and Pittsburgh did seem to “babysit” his innings as some of those starts he didn’t even clear 80 pitches. In 19 starts he threw 86.2 innings, an average of 4.2 innings a start. He threw 1,391 pitches in those 19 starts, an average of 73. Do the Astros think he can reliably stretch to 90-95 pitches consistently and stay as effective on pitches 75-95? His splits suggest he struggles as his pitch count increases, with the league hitting .273 on pitches 76+, but thats a small sample.

    My point is if the Astros just added another arm that will be out of the game sometime in the 6th (or earlier), they need to shore up this bullpen more. How many times a week can we reliably get 4 innings from the pen, especially if the rotation is a 6 man rotation the first month as expected?

    My thing is if Bryan King starts great, and 2/3rds of the way through the season he starts showing cracks, is that because he is out of gas or just over exposed? In 2022 Steven Okert posted a 2.98 ERA in 60 appearances, and followed that up with two years of 4.45 and 5.09 respectively. He was great last year. Do I expect the same thing this year? No. Hopefully I’m pleasantly surprised, but I don’t expect it. Sousa always been a high chance, high reward guy, we got the reward last year, but is he healthy, and can he stay in the zone?

    In the end, I think taking a flyer on Pearson is fine. I think trading Jacob Melton for Mike Burrows is fine. I think signing Weiss is fine. But I hope this is not the tipped hand we are seeing, a bunch of flyers and low cost chances.

    I expect that we still see something like Paredes for Early and Tolle as a distinct possibility. I thought it was telling a few days ago when Pullilo noted on the stone cold stros podcast that we are so far behind Seattle right now that we have 1 pitcher that would actually crack Seattles rotation.

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  4. Good points on what we might expect from Burrows. He had me thinking six man rotation, but that leaves us with one less guy in the pen. Dana has said he’d like to get 160 innings from the new guy, but that sounds overly optimistic, like so much of what we hear.

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  5. Some words from Dana Brown

    Astros Notes: Valdez, Meyers, Roster Needs – MLB Trade Rumors

    • OK – they had a back and forth with Framber. That was probably – Dana: “Framber’s agent – how about a 5 year / $100 million contract?” Framber’s agent: “No”
    • What they did to get Burrows makes sense – especially if they can get more out of him.
    • They want to get blown away on trade offers for Meyers – that is not happening and now they are more likely to keep him with Melton gone.

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  6. Dave – its a tough ask. 160 innings is a lot. That is effectively asking him to be the second most used pitcher. For a guy that has never done that, thats a big ask.

    The Astros don’t have a history of free agent signings, especially for the rotation. Usually, they go get guys, like Verlander and Cole and Greinke. I think the last time they signed a big time pitcher, they actually brought two of them in Pettitte and Clemens and got as close to a WS crown as they ever had because of it, they just didn’t get it done in the end.

    Cease is getting 30M a year for 7 years. In 2022 he pitched that salary. He didn’t before, and he hasn’t since. At 30 on opening day he is unlikely too any of the 7 seasons he will be paid, but maybe his 2025 and or 2026 can be special. The price out there is just too much. Ranger Suarez is probably getting a 5/100 deal from someone, and it will be an overpay because he is here at a time when there is a bunch of need and not enough arms. Let the other teams pay it.

    I truly believe Connor Early has the best shot at being a number 2 on this team of most of the options I have seen. If it cost us Paredes, so be it. It’s gonna suck, as this team already can’t tell a ball from a strike so trading the one guy that specializes in it is tough, but hitters only win games that pitchers give them a chance to win. Championships are built on pitching.

    I’m not disappointed with getting Burrows. Heck, I’m over the moon that they could get anything for Melton. Burrows is actually a pretty good pitcher in any given at bat. He improves this team on the margins. But they need someone to slot after Javier that will also not be a consistent 5 inning guy like Javier, having that back to back will be tough on the pen, especially if top guy is a pretty consistent 6 IP guy and the guys at 4 and 5 and 6 might not give you 5 – and you are trying to do with 7 guys down there so you have a 6 man rotation. They can have some pretty tough weeks out there in the pen, and we might see the proverbial Sugar Land shuffle again after some pen guy goes 3 and he has options.

    Maybe the true strength of the Glasnows and Ceases of the world isn’t that they are the step below Skubal and Crochet, but maybe its just they give you spots where you don’t have to put as many non-leverage guys on the mound as often. We don’t need an ace, we have one. We need a number 2 or 3 that can see the 7th inning a lot.

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    • I’ve never considered the possibility that Espada is approaching some of these games with the strategy, but we’ve often talked in the past about pitchers giving us a great start the day after the bullpen got abused. Win the game you’re in and hope for the best tomorrow is probably a decent strategy when your team should be favored more than 50% of the time, but I share the same concern with you that this team as currently constructed could see a lot of bullpen games and even worse see them stacked on top of each other. I think I’m mentally scarred from the years we paid JV to not pitch for us or were afraid to bring in Montero but also couldn’t move him/release him because of the salary. I’m still hopeful Javier can be that 6 inning guy you need. Last year in his 8 starts we were 4-4 and three of the losses were games where he wasn’t good, but the offense was even worse. If you’re going to commit 10% of a payroll to a starter he needs to deliver. I just don’t see any free agents who could be had for such an offer and be guaranteed to be better than the journeymen pitchers we’re discussing. I think at this point if you can’t sign a guy you really, really like it’s better to put the pressure on your high paid hitters and let them either win you the games to be in the postseason or start investing in rebuilding the team with young talent.

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