Astros’ 2025: September Song

In some ways, this post may seem a bit pointless. As always, past performance is not a predictor of future gains, your mileage may vary, don’t count your chickens before they are hatched and any other hackneyed adage you want to apply.

But after a 6-1 shellacking by the very worst team in the majors, the Colorado Rockies, it seemed like a better time to look forward than to look back and to think about what the month of September might mean for our favorite schizophrenics, the Houston Astros.

And call me a hypocrite, but I will start this off by looking back on what the September / October regular season has meant for this team during this Astros Renaissance from 2017 through 2024.

2017 – Heading into September during the Astros first Championship, the concern was not about whether the Astros would make the playoffs, but the fact they had just completed a very stinky 11-17 August. Yes, they had made the big move to make the waiver trade for Justin Verlander in the last couple minutes before the deadline. But remember Verlander was an OK 10-8 with a 3.82 ERA with Detroit before the trade. No one knew he would turn  into his shut down self (5-0, 1.06 ERA with Houston) when he joined the Astros or that the team would suddenly slide into a winning mode just knowing he was joining the rotation.

• Heading into September: Astros up 12.5 games in the AL West
• Record in September/October: 21-8
• Season Finish: Astros 21 games up on the Angels in ALW / 1 Game back of the Guardindians for the best record in the AL / 3 Games back of the Dodgers for the best record in the majors.
• Results: Beat the Dodgers 4-3 in the World Series

2018. The Astros had built a lead in the division with a very good April and June. They followed that with a slightly above average July and August. At the July trade deadline they had bolstered their bullpen with an under the radar pickup of Ryan Pressly and an overt over the radar, in your face trade for domestic abuse suspect Roberto Osuna, but were tottering a bit heading into September.

• Heading into September. Astros up 2.5 games in the AL West
• Record in September / October. 21-6
• Season Finish. Astros 6 games up on the A’s in AL West / 5 games back of the Red Sox for the best record in the AL and in the MLB
• Results . Lost to the Red Sox 4-1 in the ALCS in a battle of Alex Cora trash can bangers

2019. The Astros were a very strong team in 2019 and picking up Zack Greinke at the deadline solidifying an already formidable rotation.

• Heading into September. Astros up 9.5 games in the AL West
• Record in September. 19-6
• Season Finish. Astros 10 games up on the A’s in AL West / 4 games up on the Yanks for the best record in the AL and 1 up on the Dodgers for the best in the MLB
• Results. Lost to the Nats 4-3 in the World Series

2020. This was bizarro times in many ways. Astro fans were mourning the giant stain placed on our only championship and how the two main architects of that championship, A.J. Hinch and Jeff Luhnow, were gone. Then the pandemic hit and moved the start of the season way out with a shortened season held in empty stadiums. The Astros were devastated with a series of season ending injuries including Yordan Alvarez and Justin Verlander and the whole season felt like a giant shrug.

• Heading into September. Astros 3 games back in the AL West
• Record in September. 10-17
• Season Finish. Astros 7 games back of the A’s in AL West / 11 games back of the Rays for the best record in the AL and 14 games back of the Dodgers for the best in the MLB. But with the expanded playoffs the Astros took the 8^th and last spot in the AL playoffs.
• Note – being back 11 games in a 60 game season in the AL and under .500 and still making the playoffs and almost the WS is one of the great oddities in this Golden era
• Results. Lost to the Rays 4-3 in the ALCS after nearly digging out of a 3-0 grave.

2021. After going 35-17 in June/July to build a solid lead, the Astros were sloshing along with a middle of the road 14-13 August heading into September.

• Heading into September. Astros up 5 games in the AL West
• Record in September/October. 17-13
• Season Finish. Astros 5 games up on the Mariners in ALW / 5 Games back of the Rays for the best record in the AL / 12 Games back of the Giants for the best record in the majors.
• Results. Lost to the Braves 4-2 in the World Series

2022. After a so-so April, the Astros put up 4 months of very good ball to position them for a great run in September and beyond.

• Heading into September. Astros up 11 games in the AL West
• Record in September/October. 22-9
• Season Finish. Astros 16 games up on the Mariners in ALW / 7 Games up on the Yanks for the best record in the AL / 5 Games back of the Dodgers for the best record in the majors.
• Results. Beat the Phillies 4-2 in the World Series

2023. It was a season where the Astros stumbled along for the most part just off the pace of whoever was leading the division at any particular time. They finally pulled into a virtual tie with the M’s, one game up on the Rangers at the end of August. There would be more stumbling and bumbling down the last month of the season.

• Heading into September. Astros tied with the M’s in the AL West
• Record in September/October. 13-14
• Season Finish. Astros tied with the Rangers in the ALW but take the division with the tiebreaker / 11 games back of the O’s for the best record in the AL / 14 Games back of the Braves for the best record in the majors.
• Results. Lost to the Rangers 4-3 in the ALCS

2024. The Astros almost forgot to get out or the box to start the season, limping along to a 12-24 record, sitting in last place and trailing the first place Rangers by 8.5 games on May 8. The Astros ride better play, especially in June and August to drive to the top of the division by the time September was staring them in the face.

• Heading into September. Astros 6 games up in the AL West
• Record in September. 14-11
• Season Finish. Astros 3.5 games up on the M’s in AL West / 5.5 games back of the Yanks for the best record in the AL and 10.5 games back of the Dodgers for the best in the MLB.
• Results. Were swept by the Tigers 2-0 in the Wild Card.

In general, the Astros were very good in September during this era, especially in their best seasons. The only real exceptions were the silly season of 2020 and a slightly below average 2023. And those were the two biggest seasons that were threats to their continuous run of appearances in the playoffs.

And now we turn to 2025. We don’t know exactly how big a lead the Astros will have entering September as there are still a few games to go, but it would be a good guess that they will still be in a tight race with the Mariners heading into the last month of the season.

What do we know after games of August 26?

• The Astros who are 38-28 at home and 34-32 on the road – have 15 games to go at home and 15 games to go on the road.
• They play 15 games against teams that are likely out of the playoffs (Rockies/Angels/Braves/A’s)
• They play 9 games against teams that are likely in the playoffs (Blue Jays, Yanks, M’s)
• They play 6 games against the Rangers who are not sure what they want to be when they grow up.
• The Mariners who are 40-27 at home and 31-35 on the road – have 14 games to go at home and 15 games to go on the road.
• They play 10 games against teams that are likely out of the playoffs (Braves, Cards, Angels, Rockies)
• They play 7 games against teams likely in the playoffs (Padres, Astros, Dodgers)
• They play 9 games against teams that are wobbling in the middle (Rays, Guardindians, Royals)

Bottom line….the Astros need to stop relying on other people beating the Mariners. They need to put on their big boy pants and make a statement between now and the end of the season. If they don’t they may not even have the opportunity to get eliminated in a Wild Card round.