My wife and I like to watch a little guilty pleasure of a movie called “How It Ends”.
(Note – there are two such named movies in the recent past. This is the 2021 version starring Zoe Lister-Jones, who also co-wrote it and co-directed it.)
It is a quirky, indie movie following a young woman walking around Los Angeles on the day an in-coming comet is about to hit and obliterate life on earth. It is not a totally gloomy look at the situation and allows you to think about what is important to you and what you would do on your last day on Earth.
An interesting part of the movie to me was that the incoming comet in the sky was in folks’ peripheral vision and was not really their focus. They knew it was coming, nothing was to be done about that, move on to what was important to you.
In some ways this movie is a parallel to my current love/hate relationship with the 2025 Astros. I am aware, peripherally, that the Astros are a mediocre mess right now as they fumble away game after game against so-so or less competition. I am also aware that this may be the final throes of a decade of excellence for the team.
If this is finally the season that the Astros are outside the playoffs looking in, for the first time since 2016, does this mean this is How It Ends?
Supporting that theory….
- The Astros have lost what feels like the equivalent of an All Star team over the last few seasons. George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton, Ryan Pressly, etc.
- The Astros minor leagues though still producing some talent, have been ranked low the last few seasons stemming from losing top picks in the scandal, trading away top talent for instant gratification and picking at the high end of each round.
- The Astros have had a slew of injuries on the pitching side causing massive bleeding over the last few seasons. This has taken away the talents of Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, J.P. France and Luis Garcia for extended periods. That is like having to replace a whole rotation on the fly.
- The team does not seem to have much to show for their payroll. Their total payroll ~$218 million is sixth in the majors (third in the AL), but their active 26 man payroll ~150 million is only eleventh in the majors (fourth in the AL). Plenty of money is spent, but it includes $33 million for money owed to Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly, and about $33 million tied up with players on the IL. This does not even include $12.5 million owed this year and next to Zack Greinke in deferred money.
- After having a close to the top offense for a number of seasons, the offense has been on a steady decline. The biggest concern is staring at the team this season and realizing there is no one besides Jeremy Pena who is outperforming their career norms or their 2024 results. They are well below average in a number of categories, especially in the power and runs scored areas and there does not appear to be much positive coaching taking root.
On the other side of the ledger….
- The Astros heading into Wednesday’s game are 17-18 and four games back in the AL West. In 2024, after 35 games – they were 12-23 and eight games back in a division they won by 4 games. It is early and the hill is not that tall.
- Even if the Astros fail in 2025 – there are positive things upcoming for 2026 and beyond. They will have that $33 million going to Abreu, Montero and Pressly off the books. They will likely have Framber Valdez and his $18 million salary (and growing) off the books.
- They should have Cristian Javier, J.P. France and Luis Garcia back off IL later this season or early next season.
- They have some younger talent to build around including Cam Smith (22 years old), Jeremy Pena (27), Isaac Paredes (26), Yainer Diaz (26), Zach Dezenzo (25), Hunter Brown (26), Hayden Wesneski (27) with plenty of control. Even guys like Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia are not yet 30 years only.
- And even with complaints about the ownership, Jim Crane has shown that he will support the front office spending big when needed.
What could make it “How It Ends” is if the front office does not spend on the right things. The bad money spent during the gap between GMs hurt this team. More money spent in the wrong places (Christian Walker please don’t be “that” guy) by this front office could pile on to that problem.
But if this is How It Ends, it has been a spectacular time in Astros history.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
37 responses to “Astros 2025: How it ends”
Earlier today, I sent a text to my brother. “I need to refrain from being disappointed in the ball club. It’s been an excellent decade”.
In fact the vast majority of baseball fans never get to witness such a stretch of excellence from their team. Let’s face it, we don’t handle mediocrity very well. So my immediate goal is to try and avoid sinking into cynicism. Help me my friends!
Christian Walker did not put a gun to the head of the collective brain trust and demand 3 years at 60 million. Even I would have done the Tucker deal. I don’t think for whatever reasons, either Kyle or Alex really wanted to stay in Houston. We had to sign Jose, effectively making him an Astro for life. There was no way around that. And how could any of us expect that every guy on the roster to date, other than Pena and Jake, would have such ugly stats on May 7, even though we witnessed much of the same just 12 months ago.
I have to admit that I get pissed off when guys don’t make plays that I expect them to make. Or do dumb things on the field mentally. But I can’t blame Frenchie Dubon for being a bad hitter. He’s always been a bad hitter. Same with the new guy at second. I still think Cam Smith should have gone to AAA first and given Zach more reps early. But those decisions are made based on a lot of different factors, hope too, that a compromised offense might be ignited by a young, talented rookie. That really would have been a good story. And I would like to see Joe get tossed from a game one night soon, just to see if maybe that will fire guys up.
Off the field, upstairs in the front office, I am wondering what’s going on. Haven’t heard from Dana lately. I think it’s a crime that in 2025 we don’t have at least 3 or 4 capable left handed bats on the 26 man. But other than that, if our guys keep pitching pretty much as they have, and our established bats end up approaching their expected production offensively, and one of the rookies steps up, then yes Dan, we’ll be playing important baseball games in September.
I think that’s all we can ask right now.
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I was watching the Dodgers and Braves recently and it was a tight game with Ohtani coming to the plate. The Braves had a reliever in who basically only throws sliders. If you look at Ohtani’s stats he is basically the best hitter against sliders in baseball right now…or at least close to it. I think the entire Astros roster are basically the opposite end of the spectrum, but where this matters is your mention of lack of LH bats. Walker is likely going to continue seeing a ton of sliders and strike out 30% of the time. This roster as constructed may be making it too easy on the opposing manager.
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Earlier today, I sent a text to my brother. “I need to refrain from being disappointed in the ball club. It’s been an excellent decade”.
In fact the vast majority of baseball fans never get to witness such a stretch of excellence from their team. Let’s face it, we don’t handle mediocrity very well. So my immediate goal is to try and avoid sinking into cynicism. Help me my friends!
Christian Walker did not put a gun to the head of the collective brain trust and demand 3 years at 60 million. Even I would have done the Tucker deal. I don’t think for whatever reasons, either Kyle or Alex really wanted to stay in Houston. We had to sign Jose, effectively making him an Astro for life. There was no way around that. And how could any of us expect that every guy on the roster to date, other than Pena and Jake, would have such ugly stats on May 7, even though we witnessed much of the same just 12 months ago.
I have to admit that I get pissed off when guys don’t make plays that I expect them to make. Or do dumb things on the field mentally. But I can’t blame Frenchie Dubon for being a bad hitter. He’s always been a bad hitter. Same with the new guy at second. I still think Cam Smith should have gone to AAA first and given Zach more reps early. But those decisions are made based on a lot of different factors, hope too, that a compromised offense might be ignited by a young, talented rookie. That really would have been a good story. And I would like to see Joe get tossed from a game one night soon, just to see if maybe that will fire guys up.
Off the field, upstairs in the front office, I am wondering what’s going on. Haven’t heard from Dana lately. I think it’s a crime that in 2025 we don’t have at least 3 or 4 capable left handed bats on the 26 man. But other than that, if our guys keep pitching pretty much as they have, and our established bats end up approaching their expected production offensively, and one of the rookies steps up, then yes Dan, we’ll be playing important baseball games in September.
I think that’s all we can ask right now.
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I missed this happening – what a story!
Astros’ Top Prospect Gains New Perspective After Recent Near-Death Experience
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The Astros have lost a lot. The guys you mentioned are guys capable of laying off 2-1 count sliders with runners in scoring position. The guys we have kept or brought up are not all capable of it. That’s how the slide to mediocrity begins. By keeping the guys you can afford and letting go guys you can’t.
I love Nolan Schanuel. My favorite non-Astro. Guy is a superstar in the making. And it’s all because you won’t get him fishing on a 2-1 slider 6 inches off the plate. He is mad focused on that zone and can recognize pitches going out of it. But like you said, you can’t get Schanuel drafting 25th every year. Still, the Astros can get a little more focused on approach and the ability to lay off pitches in the draft. It’s tough, because 18-21 year olds are not seeing the command of major leaguers, so you don’t really know if they can have that skill set, but you got to put a focus on trying to find it. You can develop muscle, bat to ball, technique, the one thing you can’t develop is the fast eye, we have to find scouts that can recognize it.
It’s hard to envision that with the pitching they have they will be a .500 team all year. As pitching wears down around the league our guys will pick up a little more. Walker isn’t going to hit .200 all year. He will eventually get hot. Diaz is already heating up some. Yordan should come back from this hand thing and have a tear. But if we want to win close games, where banners are decided, we have to improve the approach. We can’t be swinging at 2-1 sliders in the dirt or in the opposite side batters box. They are lineup full of guys vulnerable to it, and that’s what you are going to see with runners on 2nd and 3rd, a steady of diet of the things you’ve shown to not handle well.
Just a side note – I had a notice pop up on my phone that talked about a stretch that Jeff Bagwell once had in 1994 – in a 16 game hitting streak he hit .491 with 10 HR and 26 RBI. I bet he didn’t swing at anything out of the zone. It’s amazing what happens when you combine some, uh, pharmaceuticals with an elite level of strike zone control.
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Thoughts:
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For the three game series we scored 13 runs and allowed 10. On paper that’s pretty good but it was only good for 1 win and 2 losses. It could be worse – Justin Verlander is 0-2 through 8 starts for the 24-14 Giants. At this point the only way he’s going to reach that 300 win milestone he speaks of would be to find the fountain of youth or some sort of Steven’s aforementioned pharmaceuticals to let him pitch until he’s 50.
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I think Dezenzo’s future remains in the outfield. Cam too.
If Jake is still hitting at the Break, I’ll be convinced.
I think getting work for Abreu and Hader was unnecessary. I doubt they were begging for it.
It would be nice to have two aces.
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I think Dezenzo’s future remains in the outfield. Cam too.
If Jake is still hitting at the Break, I’ll be convinced.
I think getting work for Abreu and Hader was unnecessary. I doubt they were begging for it.
It would be nice to have two aces.
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An interesting note I did not know about Rodgers contract – when he was selected it was with the caveat that at the 45 day mark the Astros can revert it back to a minor league deal and option him or release him. If they do not option or release him before Saturday, they are on the hook for the entire 2M salary.
He has had moments, but you knew he would he is a major league hitter. Overall he is on pace for what most people predicted would happen outside of Colorado.
It wouldn’t surprise me either way. Maybe Brown will feel like he needs to free up another 1.5M. Maybe they would rather not see Dubon playing everyday. Who knows. Well, we will by Saturday.
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I would rather free up 5M by trading Dubon and bringing up Whitcomb.
Framber made a great play on a soft bouncer in the 7th. In the past we’ve seen him panic on those plays, but I assume he’s been working on it.
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My guess is that Whitcomb would do more damage at second base than he would at the plate.
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I would like to see Crane contact Luhnow and ask if Luhnow would agree to a “consultant” position for the team. Or if Luhnow would suggest someone who could turn the team around.
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I think Luhnow is having too much fun building a soccer dynasty. He won’t be back. We need to look ahead.
By the way, things are not all rosy in Boston. The club is 20 and 19. Five of their wins have come at the expense of the White Sox. Devers is refusing to try first base. And it’s a tough division to play in. They have RISP hitting problems too. The Fenway Faithful are already freaking.
So I’m optimistic this morning. Things could be worse in Houston. Gosh, Wilyer Abreu sure did turn into a ballplayer though. A lefty hitting one.
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It hasn’t been for lack of offense. Campbell will probably be the RoY and is the next superstar in baseball. And they were able to sign this guy to an 8 year deal with 2 option years before he ever set foot on a major league field.
Their real issue is anyone could have looked at that rotation and predicted they would be a .500 team.
That’s why they are the perfect trading partner with us. Framber would be a big boost to them trying to catch NY. And we could get 1 or 2 young guys that are cheap and ready to play from that over the top land of riches they have in the minors. Of course they are not going to trade Roman Anthony. But if I could convince them to make either Marcelo Mayer or Franklin Arias the centerpiece of a trade that also includes us taking Yoshida, which has nowhere to play in Boston and another minor leaguer, I would do it. Just let Rodgers go today, move Altuve back to 2B, live with the declining defense, and insert a lefty hitting LFer that will likely stay above .270, give you a well above average OBP, and show a little power at times.
But I’m not in charge.
And yes, we traded the career of Abreu for 35 games, 108 plate appearances of 1 HR, 10 RBI, .250 avg, .278 OBP ball. It helped us basically none since Dusty didn’t agree with Click on who should be catching. Or maybe they thought the clubhouse just had too many Abreus. I don’t know. I felt like it was a mistake then. It’s obvious now.
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Steven, yeah, they can hit, but timely hitting has been a problem. Things could get worse for them too, with as you note, a pitching staff that has a real depth problem.
I’m all in for moving Framber at any point even if it is to our detriment this season. But I don’t think the FO has the stomach for it. That lefty bat is essential though. It’s Dana’s job to pull that off. Altuve is a real conundrum, because while he will hit again, he just creates such a glaring hole at second. He does less damage playing left. I know this is a big ask, but I’d want a Framber deal to include a quality lefty infield bat, an athletic kid familiar with second base. Someone with OBP already ingrained.
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Steven, yeah, they can hit, but timely hitting has been a problem. Things could get worse for them too, with as you note, a pitching staff that has a real depth problem.
I’m all in for moving Framber at any point even if it is to our detriment this season. But I don’t think the FO has the stomach for it. That lefty bat is essential though. It’s Dana’s job to pull that off. Altuve is a real conundrum, because while he will hit again, he just creates such a glaring hole at second. He does less damage playing left. I know this is a big ask, but I’d want a Framber deal to include a quality lefty infield bat, an athletic kid familiar with second base. Someone with OBP already ingrained.
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Dave, I agree about Luhnow. My post was just a “wish”.
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Dave – my take on a lefty hitting infielder that is already able to provide some OBP is that he is probably already playing a critical role. There certainly isn’t one of those on Boston, a team that is having a growing desperation and impatient fan base – two things to our favor. Finding an infielder fits the description is going to be a tough sell. I hadn’t really done much research on Yoshida, until after I wrote it, but he wouldn’t even pass a physical. He can’t throw. The Red Sox are going to be in a spot. Either Yoshida takes surgery on his shoulder and misses possibly the year, or he comes to his DH role (apparently, he is swinging a bat just fine – it’s just throwing motions that hurts) and Devers takes the field. My guess is Devers, despite his blustering now, ends up at 1B and Yoshida spends a lot of time at DH when he finally does return.
Regardless, there are a lot of possible trade partners for Framber. San Fran would probably love to move Hicks back to the bullpen in a spot he would be comfortable in. But, alas, no major league ready 2B that swings from the left side. Toronto would probably love to go after Framber, but they don’t even have a minor leaguer I would go after (poor Joey). Maybe getting Will Wagner in a return deal might be an upgrade over Rodgers/Dubon but lets be honest – the Jays minor league system is about as rough as ours. Hard to find the exact prospects coming back. Maybe if you could Yesavage and another minor leaguer.
San Diego probably isn’t looking to add that kind of salary without an exchange of money. Baltimore doesn’t look like its just one pitcher away, but maybe if they have a hot streak something like Westburg for Framber is something that could get done.
Man, poor former Astros. Bloss is 0-5 with a 6+ ERA at AAA so far. Charlie Morton is 0-7 with an ERA over 9. Pressly has already been mentioned.
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I think Luhnow is having too much fun building a soccer dynasty. He won’t be back. We need to look ahead.
By the way, things are not all rosy in Boston. The club is 20 and 19. Five of their wins have come at the expense of the White Sox. Devers is refusing to try first base. And it’s a tough division to play in. They have RISP hitting problems too. The Fenway Faithful are already freaking.
So I’m optimistic this morning. Things could be worse in Houston. Gosh, Wilyer Abreu sure did turn into a ballplayer though. A lefty hitting one.
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On a separate note, I feel kind of bad for Ryan Pressly. He got tagged for 9 runs in the 11th inning against the Giants on Tuesday. His WHIP is 1.923, ERA 7.62 after that outing. He’s got a 5.5 BB/3.5 K ratio. Moving him for anything might have been the right thing for Dana to do.
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What is weird Daveb is he had a 2.05 ERA before that appearance but he had that recurring knee problem flare up. When a guy does something like that – 9 runs – no outs – I’m asking him what’s hurting.
Ironically Pressly only had that appearance because former Astro and Cub Kyle Tucker tied it up in the 9th inning with a dinger.
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Well Dan, I was thinking the Astros would never have let Pressly get hung out to dry, even if perfectly healthy. They would have come and gotten him. But the Cubs likely did not want to burn another arm. That BB/K ratio is the real problem. He has not had a K pitch all season. And with their pen problems, he might be damaged goods and going out there regardless.
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Steven, you’re right about that. Holliday and Stott are indeed already playing critical roles. Those are the guys I’d want on my fantasy team and a few months of Framber certainly wouldn’t get the deal done.
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Wesneski to the injured list. Elbow.
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Can they pls stop running in to outs making dumb base running decisions! Just gave away two outs after consecutive hits. My goodness!
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Can they pls stop running in to outs making dumb base running decisions! Just gave away two outs after consecutive hits. My goodness!
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I’m not sure if it’s a good sign or not, but the Astros played an imperfect game and still shut out the Reds for the first win against them since 2019. Two more bases loaded situations, two more lost baserunners, but Hunter Brown simply refused to give in. And he had to deal with a a couple of really bad calls. He lost a third strike that might have been the worst non call of the season.
Back to Wesneski. I sure hope he was fully checked out, including imaging before pitching on May 6. When velocity was down significantly in his April 25 start against KC, something had to be out of whack. He just needed rest?
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I’m not sure if it’s a good sign or not, but the Astros played an imperfect game and still shut out the Reds for the first win against them since 2019. Two more bases loaded situations, two more lost baserunners, but Hunter Brown simply refused to give in. And he had to deal with a a couple of really bad calls. He lost a third strike that might have been the worst non call of the season.
Back to Wesneski. I sure hope he was fully checked out, including imaging before pitching on May 6. When velocity was down significantly in his April 25 start against KC, something had to be out of whack. He just needed rest?
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I have perused the stats for Bregman and Tucker and I am really surprised that they are leading their respective teams in offense. I say this due to the fact that they have been historically bad starters to begin each season in the past.
Is it that they have access to better batting coaches?? If so, their starts make the current Astros coaches appear to be either bad instructors or non-chalant about their business.
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Wow!
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As Captain Obvious said, “Obviously, McCullers is NOT ready to pitch in the big leagues.”
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crikey it’s a laugher. 12-7 and still not halfway through.
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crikey it’s a laugher. 12-7 and still not halfway through.
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Seems someone posted threats against Lance McCullers and his family following his dismal outing last night. I sure hope the person(s) involved are dragged into jail today, get shamed publicly and then prosecuted.
I was going to talk about Astro on field issues this morning, but it can wait. Spoil all wive’s and mom’s today!
I will say this: We can win this series this afternoon.
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Sometimes you just don’t want to be associated with other members of the human race. To say you would find his daughters in public and stab them to death – it is just beyond belief.
Lance you had a bad game but it is just a game – real Astros fans are not like that.
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Good morning. What a roller coaster ride the Astros have put us on again. Blanco was brilliant, really saving the entire pitching staff from disarray, if only for a day. But suddenly the pen is rested for tonight. And we still have somewhat of a rotation, even with Wesneski and Arrighetti out, and Lance looking like he’s got a ways to go before he even might be able to help.
There is all sorts of stuff to talk about but I’m sure Dan will come up with something.
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