As we approach the end of April, the Astros find themselves at 13–11, tied for second in the AL West, just one game behind the division-leading Texas Rangers . After a sluggish start, the team has shown signs of life, winning seven of their last ten games. But if you’re an Astros’ fan, you’ve seen this story before.
Let’s dig into the key storylines of this still-young season:
1. April Showers (of Doubt)
Once again, the Astros are slow out of the gate. This marks the fifth straight season they’ve stumbled through April. From 2020–2024, their records through the first 23 games were:
| Season | Record Through 23 Games | AL West Position (After 23 Games) | Final Record | Final AL West Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 11–12 | 2nd | 29–31 | 2nd |
| 2021 | 13–10 | 1st | 95–67 | 1st |
| 2022 | 14–9 | 1st | 106–56 | 1st |
| 2023 | 11–12 | 3rd | 90–72 | 1st |
| 2024 | 7–16 | 5th | 88–73 | 1st |
| 2025 | 13–11 | T-2nd | TBD | TBD |
This table illustrates that, despite some slow starts, the Astros have consistently finished strong, often securing the top spot in the AL West.
2. An Offense Still Waking Up
The bats have been uncharacteristically quiet. Christian Walker—one of the big offseason additions—has struggled, but may be showing some positive signs. Team slugging is down, runners left in scoring position are up, and the production just isn’t there yet from key names like Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez.
3. Paredes and Cam Smith Shine
One bright spot? Recent additions Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith—both acquired in the Kyle Tucker trade—have shown real upside. Smith, a converted third baseman now patrolling right field, is holding his own defensively and seems to be coming to life too. Paredes leads the team in OPS through 23 games. That trade is looking smarter by the day, but it may require patience.
4. Pitching: Feast or Famine
The rotation has been inconsistent. The team ERA sits at 3.26—not bad—but they lead the league in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hayden Wesneski’s 10-K gem last week shows the upside. If this staff settles in, they could still be dangerous.
5. Year Two for Joe Espada
This isn’t Espada’s first rodeo. In his second year at the helm, he’s managing a team that’s transitioning from familiar clubhouse faces (like Bregman and Tucker) to a new core. His calm demeanor and focus on fundamentals will be key to weathering this early storm.
6. Upcoming Series: A Late-April Gut Check
The Astros are set to face the Kansas City Royals on the road, followed by a home series against the Detroit Tigers. These matchups provide an opportunity to build momentum and solidify their standing in the division.
7. Another Key Stat: Run Differential
Strangely, the Astros are third in the league in run differential, despite an offense that sputters regularly. Credit a well-above average pitching rotation and some key performances from players like Hunter Brown and Wesneski.
Final Thoughts
It’s easy to panic. But the Astros have been here before. April’s missteps have never defined this team. They’ve got veterans, a few breakout candidates, and a full summer ahead.
The question isn’t “what’s wrong with the Astros?” It might be “are we ready for the usual rally?”
Questions for Astros Fans:
- Which new addition has impressed you the most so far—Paredes, Smith, or someone else?
- Do you think the Astros’ slow starts are a cause for concern, or just a pattern we’ve come to expect?
- How do you feel about Joe Espada’s management style in his second year?
- What adjustments would you like to see in the Astros’ lineup to boost offensive production?
- Looking ahead, which upcoming series do you think will be the most critical for the Astros to gain momentum?
Feel free to share your thoughts and join the conversation!
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
14 responses to “FREE BLOG FRIDAY: Showers, stats and such”
Good morning Chip, thanks for stopping in again! We’re pleased to have you back.
The two guys that have impressed me most are Wesneski and Gusto. We’d be in trouble without the depth both have provided. What I like most is the composure each guy shows on the mound. I don’t know what teams have gotten more out of their 4th and 5th starters to date. These guys have picked up Framber and Blanco and covered for Arrighetti.
When veterans like Yordan and Walker are a no show early, it sets the tone. If you are expecting more from Pena, you probably shouldn’t. His 109 OPS+ is likely a bit higher than we’ll see from him at the end of the season. But he’ll give us a 4.0+ WAR overall on the season.
Seems that everyone wants to complain about Joe. I also admit guilt at times. But Dana provided an unbalanced roster again. Short on lefty bats. Guys like Jake who won’t give us much offense. Guys like Zach who are hard to squeeze into a line up. And just speaking of 2025, Jose Altuve will continue to be a hard guy to hide on the field. If we’re playing October baseball, our beloved long time second baseman will be in left or at second and that will be a big liability.
Cam Smith is already putting up positive defensive stats. If the experts want to see if he can manage center in order to get Zach on the field, I’m all for it. Yainer looks discouraged. I think I’d give Caratini a few more starts right now and Diaz a few less. And I’d rather see Rodgers in the line up at least for now. Can he hit at sea level? Dubon has 32 homers in his life and can’t bunt. That offends me. A guy with a lifetime .295 OBP and a .671 OPS should be a late inning defensive replacement. And not for 5 million a year.
Looking ahead, the only important series starts tonight, with Seth Lugo on the mound for KC, no pushover. But we’ve been holding our own against a batch of pretty good starters. Paredes helps build that pitch count, but he’s certainly not over performing at the plate to date. It would be good to see Yordan and the guys around him get with it. That would sure help build some momentum.
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Good morning Chip, thanks for stopping in again! We’re pleased to have you back.
The two guys that have impressed me most are Wesneski and Gusto. We’d be in trouble without the depth both have provided. What I like most is the composure each guy shows on the mound. I don’t know what teams have gotten more out of their 4th and 5th starters to date. These guys have picked up Framber and Blanco and covered for Arrighetti.
When veterans like Yordan and Walker are a no show early, it sets the tone. If you are expecting more from Pena, you probably shouldn’t. His 109 OPS+ is likely a bit higher than we’ll see from him at the end of the season. But he’ll give us a 4.0+ WAR overall on the season.
Seems that everyone wants to complain about Joe. I also admit guilt at times. But Dana provided an unbalanced roster again. Short on lefty bats. Guys like Jake who won’t give us much offense. Guys like Zach who are hard to squeeze into a line up. And just speaking of 2025, Jose Altuve will continue to be a hard guy to hide on the field. If we’re playing October baseball, our beloved long time second baseman will be in left or at second and that will be a big liability.
Cam Smith is already putting up positive defensive stats. If the experts want to see if he can manage center in order to get Zach on the field, I’m all for it. Yainer looks discouraged. I think I’d give Caratini a few more starts right now and Diaz a few less. And I’d rather see Rodgers in the line up at least for now. Can he hit at sea level? Dubon has 32 homers in his life and can’t bunt. That offends me. A guy with a lifetime .295 OBP and a .671 OPS should be a late inning defensive replacement. And not for 5 million a year.
Looking ahead, the only important series starts tonight, with Seth Lugo on the mound for KC, no pushover. But we’ve been holding our own against a batch of pretty good starters. Paredes helps build that pitch count, but he’s certainly not over performing at the plate to date. It would be good to see Yordan and the guys around him get with it. That would sure help build some momentum.
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On the whole 13-11 isn’t really a slow start, thats an 87 win pace. That likely puts you in the playoffs albeit the wildcard. One game goes different and you are 14-10, a 94 win pace, and probably the clear winner of the AL West. Granted it took a 5-1 homestand to get that point, so I guess it’s where you define the end of “start.”
New guy that impresses – Paredes is the best of the new ones but that was expected. Most surprising is Wesneski because he looks like a guy that can hold down a starting job to me. I don’t know why he didn’t look that way to Chicago.
Joe doesn’t do it the way I would but he is a better baseball mind than me. Dana could help him by finding one good reliever that can push everyone down a role. Tay Scott is not that guy.
Guys just need to hit. BLUF. Tinkering with batting orders or arguing about Rodgers vs. Dubon isn’t what’s broken. Alvarez, Diaz and Walker are bats that are supposed to be hitting. If they are, no one is complaining about finding a way to get Dezenzo in the lineup more or who is at 2B.
The next series is always the most important one. They have some momentum. The offense was better against the Jays but it was still the pitching that carried it. Win in KC, and come home with a 15-12 or even 16-11 record. Start to put some distance between that win and loss column. Between now and May 15th this is a very manageable schedule – you can easily play .650 ball before heading to Dallas.
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Until Dezenzo gets a chance to play regularly, whether it be downtown or out west of town, it’ll be a topic of discussion. This is not the time for him to be sitting more than playing.
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We agree on that for sure.
I never thought of Cam Smith as a possible CFer but once the idea started floating around, I whole heartedly embrace it. He has the speed, he has the arm. He seems a natural talent.
And it gets Zach in the lineup. No offense to Jake, but we have seen years of soft hitting, I’m not changing my mind because of 24 games. I was ready to move on from Jake Meyers in the offseason. At this point, Jake can take his buddy Chas with him, who I love, but has lost all confidence in himself as Joe shows no confidence in him. No offense to Caratini, but when you are getting pinch hit for in the 6th inning WHEN YOUR TEAM IS AHEAD, and the guy you are being pulled for is the back up catcher – you are not a major league outfielder.
If the Astros can find a way to move on from their combined 5.7M salary, without eating any of it, it puts them in a better position to make a deadline move. And Cam Smith with Zach Dezenzo and Jose Altuve on his flank may be a below average defensive outfield, but its a better hitting outfield than we thought we could have seen at any point in the offseason. And as questionable as they all 3 are in those positions, they still aren’t worth of iron glove awards.
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Ditto.
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Steven, you are correct that…”on the whole 13-11 isn’t that bad”. But the start itself was unimpressive. They’ve already corrected, winning 5 of the last 6, 6 of the last 8, and 8 of the last 12. Hopefully, it’s a trend we’ll see more of.
I still believe we’ll see more lineup tweaks at some point.
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Can Smith is the most impressive to me – he only played 32 total minor league games – most A+ and below. Not killing it – but has good fundamentals and showing real athleticism at a new position- enough so that they are considering moving him to CF
I’ve always wondered if their slow starts are tied to lack of Spring Training appearances – but no real proof of that just a feeling
Thanks for the help here Chip – nice job and a lot to chew on
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Dan, I agree, Smith is clearly the best of the newbies. Not only on production and the eyeball test, but in potential upside.
The real question is: Will he surpass Kyle Tucker’s production at some point? This trade has potential to be a huge boon for the Astros and could — COULD — become a big feather in Dana Brown’s cap.
On another front, you can’t discount Hunter Brown…remember, ESPN predicted in its preseason rankings that his next stop would be Cy Young…”he may not win it THIS year, but he will get votes”…
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I don’t see him surpassing Tucker, who could be 1 of only 3 players from this decade of dominance the Astros have held on the American League to give an acceptance speech one day. But that’s just my opinion.
But one year of a potential hall of famer has bought you 3 years of Paredes, 4 of Wesneski, and 6 of Cam. Sounds like a fair trade.
But if Cam Smith does turn out on par with, or better than Tucker, he won’t be an Astro for all 6 of those. Maybe 5.
That’s just who the Astros are. Never going to break the bank for 1 guy. Crane doesn’t mind spending, but he wants it spread around, and paying a bunch of B and C’s is better than 1 or 2 A’s and a bunch of D’s. The Angels have proven that much.
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Steven, I agree with that last post of yours. I just can’t click on the like button and find happiness.
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Looking ahead a couple of months, or maybe less, who knows? But if Cam plays some centerfield and Zach plays some right, and they both handle those positions well and then both hit, well that’s great news. But I do think one of Chas or Jake would stay behind. Which one goes? I think it would come down to what team wanted one more than the other.
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Good morning. Cy Young runner-up beats back of the rotation guy. No surprise. But Wesneski did his job again. And I think our much maligned offense actually hit the ball better than the other guys last night. I hate bloop doubles unless they are ours. Their guys know how to bunt though. A game to forget and move on. Sure would be nice to see the top of our rotation win the next two.
Wesneski’s velocity was down last night. Last outing I remember him hitting 97 a couple of times. He was topping out at 94. One thing I just read this morning: Joe said last night in his post game that they were not concerned. Why not?
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Is there a run anywhere with this team or will our offense look like Hunter Brown’s ERA and scoreless streak? These guys couldn’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag. The sad part is the pitching has been really good, a lot more than we could have wished for. I’m sorry but Christian Walker is pathetic. He looks totally lost at the plate as well as there are several who fit that description. I can hear Jeff Bagwell’s famous line as it pertained to Jose Abreu, “he’s eventually going to hit” (yeah sure?). 1 for 9 with RISP, 18 scoreless innings now… guys you #$@!
Yes, I’m mildly upset our could you tell?
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