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Astros 2025: I’m worried folks

Normally, I fall on the slightly optimistic side of the scale regarding my favorite team, the Astros. Not a crazed, over-the-hill and far away, South Pacific cockeyed optimist, but also not a trollish, the world is awful, and we are one step away from Astros 2013, pessimist.

But when I step back and take a look at what has happened with the Astros since the end of 2024, I have slipped past concerned to worried about the 2025 Astros.

Let’s take a quick look at each “section” of the team and what has happened to it since the end of the season.

Starting Pitching

Since the end of 2024, Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander have left the team and signed elsewhere. Kikuchi was arguably the difference down the stretch between the Astros making or missing the playoffs. Verlander is, well, future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, and even though he struggled with injury and returned from the IL too early, it still is a loss for the staff.

They have added one, maybe in the off-season. Swingman Hayden Wesneski came to the Astros from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade. He has put up a 9-13 record with a 3.93 ERA, including 22 starts in 68 MLB games over three seasons.

Yes, maybe Lance McCullers and/or Luis Garcia, who have already been declared unready for the start of the season, might at some point supplement a good but shallow starting staff of Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Wesneski.

And maybe there is a smaller chance that J.P. France and/or Cristian Javier might return in the second half of the season to help out.

But that is a lot of maybes.

Relief Pitching

Since the end of 2024 (actually in the last few days), the best playoff closer in the team’s history, Ryan Pressly has been basically handed away (with $5.5 million) to the Cubs in a trade for one A level pitcher. Seth Martinez, who was 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 44 games was lost on waivers in November.  Hector Neris (2-1, 4.70 ERA) became a free agent at the end of October. Caleb Ferguson (0-1, 3.86 ERA) became a free agent and signed with the Pirates. Kendall Gravemen (2-2, 2.42 ERA in 2023) who was injured for all of 2024 became a free agent at the end of October. Parker Mushinski (6.55 ERA) became a free agent and signed with the Guardindians.

Also, since the end of last season the Astros signed pitchers Steven Okert, Miguel Castro, Jorman Santana, Juan Martinez, Robier Hernandez, Alex Gonzalez, Omar Damien, Juan Fraide, Ismael Obregon, Ronald de los Santos, Adrian Ruiz, Jesus Sosa and Dayerson Cova to minor league contracts. This sounds like the equivalent of doubling down on buying lottery tickets hoping for the one…..

Maybe, just maybe, Rafael Montero comes back and earns back some of that big contract like he did not do the last two seasons.

Also, maybe Forrest Whitley breaks through this season. Maybe the white whale is caught by Ahab.

Outfield

Since the end of 2024, the Astros traded away the only sure thing in the outfield, one of the best 5 tool players in the game, Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Veteran outfielders Ben Gamel and Jason Heyward, who both had their moments down the stretch for the team, hit free agency after the season as did Trey Cabbage, who did not have too many moments in 2024.

The biggest addition to the outfield might be that Zack Dezenzo has spent some time in the outfield this offseason in the Puerto Rico league.

Actually, the biggest addition might be if 2024 Chas McCormick (.211 BA/ .271 OBP/ .576 OPS) is replaced by something closer to the 2023 Chas McCormick (.273 BA/ .353 OBP/ .842 OPS).

Or actually, the biggest addition might be if the unlikely signing of Alex Bregman occurs and Jose Altuve keeps his word and moves to LF. But if not, the outfield looks a bit problematic right now.

Infield

If the difference between 2024 and 2025 is that 3B Isaac Paredes and 1B Christian Walker take the place of 3B Alex Bregman and 1B Jon Singleton (and a cast of thousands), then it could be considered a narrow improvement. Paredes is not as good, but still good at 3B, and Walker is a big step up at 1B.

Now, if Bregman returns and you put Paredes at 2B and Altuve in LF, you help the OF a lot, and maybe the IF is a wash or slight downgrade offensively.

But do I really think Bregman is coming back? I’ll be surprised.

My point here is that it feels like the team is down a bit in each area but the infield. The starting pitching is good, but the depth is questionable relying on returning wounded. The bullpen is top-heavy with Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu, but after that, you are relying on guys who pitched well last season for the first time in their careers (Tayler Scott, Bryan King, Kaleb Ort). The outfield is much weaker without Tucker, and the infield is the only spot for improvement.

I’m worried that this may not be the Astros’ year.

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16 responses to “Astros 2025: I’m worried folks”

  1. Yes, the OF is a huge problem (at this time), but you underestimate the IF gains. Paredes should outperform LYs Bregman in HRs and RBIs. Walker is a huge improvement at 1B, both defensive & offensively. Starting pitching is similar to LY; Kikuchi was great for 2 months, but JV contributed zero. An improved Brown and Arrighetti should offset that, and 1 of Garcia, LMJ or Javier should give depth. The As aren’t ready, Ms sat on their hands, Rangers made several odd moves, and the Angels are, well the Angels.

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    • I think that the Astros should not wait much longer on Bregman. Perhaps, then add another pitcher or two. I think it might be time to see Dezenzo in LF and platoon Melton who bats left with the other two outfielders. We might be pleasantly surprised with the result. Next season, there will be dead money coming off and room to add a quality player or two.

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    • Took me a minute – LY is Last Year

      • I think I am most worried about the bullpen – we complained about Pressly but after struggling with his new role he was darned good and sucked up a lot of innings. And I am really afraid of regression from Scott, Ort and King
      • I can agree the IF could be better – but 2024 Paredes was not a big difference from 2024 Bregman
      • I’m only worried about depth in starting pitching because we have a propensity for injuries
      • I think your best point is that the rest of the division may not be that great – but all it takes is one

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  2. Baseball teams hinge on two things – the ability to pressure pitching, and the ability of your pitching staff to handle being pressured.

    The starting 5 in the rotation is the most important part of a team, followed by the 6-8 guys that you expect to take starts. Last year the Astros got starts from 11 guys, but I don’t think anyone considers Dubin, Bloss or Henley starts as real starts, so realistically we used 8 guys. In 2023, it was 10, but that includes 1 again from Dubin, so really, 9 guys. In 2022, we only really used 7, 8 if you count Hunter Browns 2, with 5 guys making 25 or more starts. If you look at the patterns of teams that win it all, you will find that roughly 80% of the time they have 5 starters that make 25 or more starts. Folks, hitting can decide a game, but pitching decides your fate. Yes, there are oddballs, like the Mariners have arguably the best rotation in the AL, but because they can’t break a pinata with a bat they stay home, but our offense, while probably diminished from years past, isn’t in THAT state.

    There is not a lot of carry over from that 2022 staff. Framber is there. Urquidy is gone. JV is gone. Garcia is highly unlikely to make 25 starts. Javier definitely will not make 25 if he pitches at all this year.

    The whole season is going to come down to Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ronel Blanco. A season won’t come down to Altuve, or Yordan, or Bregman returning, or Walker, or any one hitter. The season is going to be decided by Framber staying healthy, and those 3 carrying the successes from 2024 forward and leaving any failures they had behind. We can’t lose a single one of them unless Lance or Luis really surprise us and return to previous forms.

    So, given the state of the rotation, its very possible they turn out to be good, but my betting money is, this is not the Astros year. We might still win a weak AL West, but it is takeable from us if someone wants to do so. But even thats a maybe and I don’t like our chances in a 3 game set.

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  3. My biggest concern is the state of the front office. I just don’t feel we’ve got a real cohesive team working behind the scenes. I don’t think everyone has got Dana’s back. He had to quietly absorb the tension surrounding the Hader acquisition all year long. I just wish he’d have kept it that way this week. But I think Dana pivoted well with Walker and Paredes and thought the Bregman saga was over. That was my hope. I don’t want Bregman back, even if it means the Astros go home after 162 games. 162, 165, what really is the difference? I don’t want 150 plus million being committed at this point for anyone. I’d rather battle with what we’ve got in 2025 and see what’s happening as we approach the deadline.

    I like Walker and Paredes. Combined, we’ll get significantly more from first and third base than we have for several years. Walker is so much better defensively than any guy in his role in MLB. Assuming Paredes is our guy at third, he’ll hold his own. Offensively, we’ll get more production from those positions than we have in years.

    The outfield could be terrible. I hope Brown finds a lefty bat that would probably platoon with Jake. Jake should only start against lefties, but his defensive value should keep him on the roster as our 5th outfielder. Chas has to correct. And we need a guy like Dezenzo or Melton or someone else to come to camp and take ownership of a job out there.

    Jose Altuve might be worse in left than at second. But we’re going to have to hide him somewhere until he reaches 3000 hits. When an opponent stacks their line up with lefties, Dubon should certainly be at second. Whether Altuve is the DH or LF, that’s going to be part of his future, regardless of whether Bregman comes back.

    Pitching could be the scary place. We’ve got to have health. And we need some guys to pitch better than they did last year. We also need a couple of guys to pitch as well as they did last year.

    All that said, I think we’ll be in the hunt. But I’d really like to feel that everyone behind the scenes has got each others backs. And as I said last week, I’m not sure about Joe. We’ll see.

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    • I think as to your FO concerns, this off season has laid it to rest. Prior to now I would have agreed with you. But Brown has his hands tied with no farm and bad contracts to wait out. After next season when he has “cap” room I expect great things. That’s when you will see the OF addressed.

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      • Hi William, of course it’s just conjecture, but I think Brown would prefer to move on from Bregman. And I don’t think Brown will ever have full autonomy as the Astro GM. Too many cooks.

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  4. My biggest concern is the state of the front office. I just don’t feel we’ve got a real cohesive team working behind the scenes. I don’t think everyone has got Dana’s back. He had to quietly absorb the tension surrounding the Hader acquisition all year long. I just wish he’d have kept it that way this week. But I think Dana pivoted well with Walker and Paredes and thought the Bregman saga was over. That was my hope. I don’t want Bregman back, even if it means the Astros go home after 162 games. 162, 165, what really is the difference? I don’t want 150 plus million being committed at this point for anyone. I’d rather battle with what we’ve got in 2025 and see what’s happening as we approach the deadline.

    I like Walker and Paredes. Combined, we’ll get significantly more from first and third base than we have for several years. Walker is so much better defensively than any guy in his role in MLB. Assuming Paredes is our guy at third, he’ll hold his own. Offensively, we’ll get more production from those positions than we have in years.

    The outfield could be terrible. I hope Brown finds a lefty bat that would probably platoon with Jake. Jake should only start against lefties, but his defensive value should keep him on the roster as our 5th outfielder. Chas has to correct. And we need a guy like Dezenzo or Melton or someone else to come to camp and take ownership of a job out there.

    Jose Altuve might be worse in left than at second. But we’re going to have to hide him somewhere until he reaches 3000 hits. When an opponent stacks their line up with lefties, Dubon should certainly be at second. Whether Altuve is the DH or LF, that’s going to be part of his future, regardless of whether Bregman comes back.

    Pitching could be the scary place. We’ve got to have health. And we need some guys to pitch better than they did last year. We also need a couple of guys to pitch as well as they did last year.

    All that said, I think we’ll be in the hunt. But I’d really like to feel that everyone behind the scenes has got each others backs. And as I said last week, I’m not sure about Joe. We’ll see.

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  5. I think you (and we) should be legitimately concerned. As per Dave’s analysis above, we may have a net improvement over Bregman/Singleton in Paredes/Walker…but I think it will be a slight improvement. Losing Tucker really hurts, but as I keep mentioning he only played half the year for us and it wasn’t the half where the team was playing well. I would have suggested the plan will be to get as much out of the starting pitching as they can until a trade can be made in July in hopes the results are as strong as Kikuchi last summer, but I’m concerned they will also need to acquire a bat and will end up giving up more of the farm system than we can afford. While that all sounds negative, I still believe Brown has done what he needed to do this offseason.

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  6. With Polanco off the board the talking heads on Locked on Astros and SportsMap both think a pivot to making Bregman a priority is coming.

    I hope not. While resigning Bregman for 2025 is fine, I would expect at least a .260ish/25 HR season, you don’t give a guy 29M a year (that appears to be what is needed to seal this) for 6 years to hit .230 by year 3 of it.

    Some of Bregman’s decline is just the shift in baseball favoring pitching. The league took a hard stand in 2020 on all forms of cheating, putting many teams, not just the Astros, in the crosshairs. Along with teams becoming more innovative in how they pursue outs and matchup hitters, and the loss of the LOOGY pitching is climbing a ladder and hitters are falling behind. Offense is down across the board roughly 4% in every category since 2019. League BA down from .252 to .243. OBP down from .323 to .312. SLG down from .435 to .399. OPS from .758 to .711.

    But Bregman’s decline has been steeper than the league average. It’s likely his 2019 season was inflated from a combination of his prime physical peak year and the fact that some of the time he knew the pitch that was coming. But across the board, he is down roughly 15% from 2019. And the decline has been steady.

    You don’t give a contract out because of what a guy has done, you pay him for what you expect him to do. 6/156 would be a mistake in my mind, but I understand the offer, he is after all an extremely popular player in both the clubhouse and to the fan base. I love the guy as a fan too. And I’ve never heard a player say a negative thing. But the largest contract in franchise history has to be earned. I’m not saying there isn’t a reinvention coming. Maybe he packs on 15 lbs of muscle, increases his bat speed a tick, and starts making up for the tick in reaction time he has lost by getting the bat there faster. But when you are paying that kind of money, you should have a staff of nerds telling you the likelihood based on past results from similar players that had similar declines, league trends, etc., and make a good risk analysis decision. I feel like if that happens, they will say that contract – too risky. Then it becomes if Brown and Crane are more interested in internet talking heads that seem to be driving the train that the Astros are being “cheap”, but many of these are former players, so of course they think the owners are cheap.

    I won’t be mad if they do it. I love Alex Bregman as a fan. But I’m skeptical of anyone that thinks his .315 OBP is going to start trending the other direction as he ages.

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  7. A lot to unpack here and I won’t get to it all but I do not think there is a chance Bregman is back. That ship sailed with the Tucker trade and the Walker signing. If we were going to spend that money we would have already signed an outfielder or pitcher. Crane made his best offer, a very fair one, Bregs moved on. So did the ‘stros. Brown merely said what anyone would say about a franchise icon, “of course the door is still open”. I think we dodged a bullet actually. And the rest of the league sees it also. Bregman is on the wrong side of 30 and his interests have become too varied. He’s not a gym rat for baseball anymore, and it appears that was probably his edge. He tried to reinvent himself last year and hit for more power at the expense of his most valuable trait getting on base. Altuve walked more than Bregman last year. Yikes. He should have realized his comp was Carpenter and took the Astros deal. Boris convinced him his comp was Machado and now he is unsigned two weeks from spring training…

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  9. Using history as my defense, particularly the history of the Astros getting the absolute most out of pitchers that us and others never saw as productive contributors, I have more confidence in the Astros coming up with internal solutions to its current starting rotation and its bullpen. I will use Arrighetti and Blanco as recent starting pitchers who came out of nowhere to become dependable starters in 2024, who are now just inserted to the conversation as rotation dependables in 2025.

    Who are the guys who will be added to our pitching staff who carried Sugarland to the best record in all of MILB land last year and won the AAA championship. This is the same source that provided us with Valdez, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy, Abreu, Blanco, Brown, Arrighetti and others who slid out of our farm system and provided big time pitchers for a team that has dominated the AL for years.

    It is my thinking that there are more pitchers there who will continue to help us in 2025 and years to come.

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  10. I am in the camp of being against Altuve in the outfield. He demonstrated, multiple times last season, that his arm strength has waned. With him in left field, any hit to the field, with a runner on second, would mean a guaranteed run scoring.

    I personally watched Bagwell roll the ball across the infield to third base many times, as his career faded and runners took the extra base (second to third) on him. I don’t want to see Altuve do the same on throws from the outfield.

    I praise Altuve for taking the charge to change positions. However, I also see it as a mistake.

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  11. yeah what an all star cast n cy young n mvp candidates: My apologies I’m thinking n dreaming of how it was in 17 n 22. This team and mgmt r failing the fans . The Astros have owned the city for the last 10 yrs but as the new season on the horizon; I see the Texans taking over the city: I’m a live long Astros fan but I urge the fans stay home don’t buy tickets; send a message to Management to wake the HELLL UP

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